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黄金突然大变脸!美联储一则大消息引发金价暴跌 FXStreet分析师金价技术分析

FX1682026年1月30日 05:33
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24K99讯 周五(1月30日)亚市盘中,现货黄金维持日内暴跌走势,目前金价位于5211美元/盎司附近,日内暴跌近160美元。金价亚市早盘曾触及5451.06美元/盎司。FXStreet分析师Dhwani Mehta高级分析师Dhwani Mehta撰文,对金价技术进行分析。

Mehta写道,在周四剧烈波动之后,周五早盘,黄金价格出现大幅回调,一度对5100美元/盎司附近的买盘构成挑战。随着美国总统特朗普即将宣布美联储主席人选,黄金交易员趁机获利了结。

Mehta指出,金价最近的回调主要归因于美元全面强劲反弹。多种因素共同作用,为美元提供反弹动力。

《华尔街日报》报道称,美国总统特朗普和参议院民主党人达成协议,避免政府停摆,从而提振了美元。此外,美联储谨慎的维持利率不变的决定,以及美元在近期跌至四年低点后的获利回吐,共同推动美元在特朗普周五上午晚些时候宣布美联储主席人选前走强。

彭博社周五报道称,特朗普政府正准备提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什担任下一任主席。

一位知情人士称,沃什于周四到访白宫。另一位听取了相关讨论简报的消息人士表示,这位前美联储理事给特朗普留下了深刻印象。

沃什曾担任美联储理事,也是特朗普候选名单上的四位最终人选之一。

彭博社报道出炉后,美国股指期货扩大跌幅、美债收益率走高。美元短线飙升,而黄金、白银等贵金属价格出现暴跌。

澳大利亚国民银行(Nomura Australia Ltd.)驻悉尼高级策略师Andrew Ticehurst表示:“市场的看法是,若凯文·沃什出任美联储主席,将是相对更传统、也不那么偏‘鸽派’的选择,那么我们可能会看到更少的降息。”

Mehta表示,尽管金价大幅回调,但由于美国和伊朗之间的地缘政治风险依然高企,市场仍在消化特朗普对古巴和加拿大最新加征关税的威胁,因此逢低买入的可能性依然存在。

据路透社报道,白宫表示,特朗普已签署一项行政命令,将对向古巴供应石油的国家征收关税。

Mehta称,市场正密切关注特朗普宣布的美联储主席人选以及美国生产者物价指数(PPI)数据,以判断黄金价格的下一步走势。

黄金技术分析

从黄金技术面来看,Mehta指出,日线图显示,21日简单移动平均线(SMA)已上穿50日和100日均线,200日均线也呈上升趋势。黄金价格维持在这些均线之上,进一步强化了看涨倾向。相对强弱指数(RSI)为72.07(超买),动能依然强劲。金价近期支撑位在21日均线,位于4764.72美元/盎司。

(现货黄金日线图 来源:FXStreet)

Mehta补充道,短期均线持续高于长期均线,凸显了当前的上升趋势,其中位于4481.84美元/盎司的50日均线支撑着这一结构。100日均线和200日均线继续上行,确认了整体的上涨趋势。RSI维持在高位,这可能会限制短期上涨空间,并倾向于盘整而非反转。预计黄金回调将在50日均线附近找到支撑,而持续高于短期均线则意味着金价阻力最小的阻力仍是上行。

北京时间12:14,现货黄金报5211.10美元/盎司。

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