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警惕重大回调风险!彭博高级商品策略师警告:银价突破100美元后恐面临“痛苦”

FX1682026年1月28日 05:52
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24K99讯 银价突破100美元/盎司大关,已将该金属推入历史上的极端区域,这引发彭博情报(Bloomberg Intelligence)高级商品策略师迈克·麦克隆(Mike McGlone)的警告。

(截图来源:Finbold)

在此背景下,这位专家提醒称,白银的极端上涨可能会使投资者面临显著的下行波动风险。值得注意的是,银价周二(1月27日)上涨超过8%,交易价格为112美元/盎司。

(银价年初至今走势图 来源:TradingView)

在1月26日的一篇X推文中,麦克隆对长期银价数据的分析显示,该金属相对于其60个月移动平均线的溢价异常升高。这种情况在现代市场历史中只发生过三次。

自1954年以来,银价经历了855个月的价格周期,但仅在1979年底和1980年初,价格才达到与今日水平相当的程度。

那些早期的情况以痛苦告终,当时银价平均约为34美元/盎司,最高接近50美元/盎司,随后进入了一个长时间的下跌期,最终在1993年将价格压低至约3.56美元/盎司。

现在,在2025年接近28美元/盎司时见底,银价已经上涨了三倍多,突破了三位数区间,将估值推高至远高于长期正常水平。麦克隆指出,目前银价的溢价约为其长期平均水平的3.8倍,使其成为几十年来最极端的水平之一。

麦克隆表示:“银价突破100美元后的表现可能暗示着潜在的痛苦——在我们自1954年以来的855个月数据中,银价曾经超过当前的3.8倍溢价。”

他警告称,这种极端情况往往会造成波动性加剧的局面,导致多头和空头的仓位都变得脆弱。

总体来看,银价上涨的速度使其与过去的投机性飙升相提并论,其涨幅超过许多传统资产,甚至其他贵金属。

零售参与、动量交易和技术因素加剧了价格波动,使得市场情绪与基本面同样具有影响力。

与此同时,在强劲的实物需求和投机资金流动的推动下,主要交易中心的库存趋紧,而供应限制则限制了生产商的快速响应能力。

尽管受到工业需求和持续性赤字的结构性支撑,分析师警告称,波动性可能会上升。

目前白银价格远高于历史正常水平,如果市场情绪发生变化、供应压力缓解或需求增长放缓,市场将面临调整的风险。

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