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黄金暴涨远超此前预测!银行业巨头摩根士丹利重设2026年下半年金价目标

FX1682026年1月27日 05:44
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24K99讯 在黄金价格突破5000美元/盎司创下历史新高后,美国银行业巨头摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)指出,黄金在未来几个月仍有上升潜力。

(截图来源:Finbold)

值得注意的是,黄金周一(1月26日)盘中一度暴涨至5111美元/盎司,创下历史新高,因为投资者在月底可能发生政府停摆的担忧加剧之际纷纷转向该资产。

截至目前,今年黄金价格已上涨近18%。

(黄金年初至今走势图 来源:TradingView)

当地时间周一早间,Polymarket平台显示1月底前政府停摆的概率为78%,较上周五的不到10%飙升。停摆概率飙升,反映出多重因素叠加:国会谈判陷入僵局;围绕国土安全部(DHS)拨款与移民政策的争议仍未解决;以及立法日程被严重压缩。

关于价格前景,摩根士丹利为黄金设定了一个看涨目标,预计到2026年下半年,由于地缘政治风险、央行需求以及投资者资金流入的持续支持,黄金价格将达到5700美元/盎司。

黄金远超此前预测

摩根士丹利表示,黄金价格已经超过了其此前对2026年下半年4750美元/盎司的预测,但并未看到此次上涨出现顶峰迹象。

相反,该投资银行认为,目前的走势是全球市场持续不确定性支持下更广泛结构性上涨的一部分。

根据该行的分析,央行需求仍然是支撑黄金的关键支柱,而黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)的强劲资金流入在经历了多年的市场赤字后,正吸纳有限的可用库存。这些因素紧缩了供应条件,并强化黄金价格的上行势头。

摩根士丹利还指出,美元走弱为黄金提供了支持性背景,同时强劲的实物需求也起到推动作用。这些因素共同构成该行看涨预测的基础,意味着从当前价格水平来看,黄金可能上涨约14%。

黄金的上涨受到避险需求上升的推动,尤其是在对美国财政稳定性重新产生担忧的背景下。围绕联邦政府资金的政治紧张局势增加了政府停摆的风险,而这一结果通常会提升投资者对黄金等防御性资产的需求。

与此同时,摩根士丹利指出,整个贵金属领域持续表现强劲,特别是白银在亚洲市场出现供应紧张的迹象,凸显推动该行业的基本需求。

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