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金价还要进一步大涨的信号?对冲基金对黄金的看涨押注跳升至四年高位

FX1682024年8月25日 01:45
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24K99讯 美国彭博社周五(8月23日)报道称,因预期美联储将更早、更大幅度降息以提振经济,基金经理对黄金的看涨押注跳升至四年多来的最高水平。

美国政府周五公布的每周数据显示,截至8月20日,对冲基金和其他大型投机者的黄金净多头头寸增加7.8%,达到236,749份合约,这是自2020年初以来的最高水平。

(截图来源:彭博社)

因市场对美联储即将降息的预期越来越高,金价本月首次突破2500美元/盎司大关。降息通常对无息黄金有利。

金价周二一度飙升至2531.75美元/盎司,创下历史高位。

美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔年会上表示,调整货币政策的“时机已到”。分析人士指出,鲍威尔发出了迄今为止最强烈的降息信号,其言论几乎标志着美联储历史性抗击通胀行动的结束。

鲍威尔表示,利率下调的时机和步伐将取决于最新数据、经济形势展望的变化以及风险的平衡。一向发言谨慎的鲍威尔鲜少向市场传达如此直截了当的信息。

受鲍威尔的言论刺激,现货黄金周五收盘大涨26.77美元,涨幅1.07%,报2511.51美元/盎司。

鲍威尔指出,目前通胀已下降,劳动力市场不再过热,他对通胀率正持续朝着2%目标回归的信心增强。

鲍威尔说,劳动力市场显著降温,短期内不太可能成为加剧通胀压力的源头,美联储“并不寻求也不希望”劳动力市场进一步冷却。他认为,通胀上行风险已减弱,而就业下行风险有所增加。

美联储官员的下一次政策会议定于9月17日至18日召开。外界普遍预计他们将在那次会议上下调基准联邦基金利率。

AuAg Funds创始人Eric Strand在接受Kitco News采访时表示: “我认为我们还没有看到黄金的全部潜力。美联储才刚刚开始降息周期。”

Forexlive.com货币策略主管Adam Button表示,随着利率走低,美元下跌,金价将继续闪耀。他说:“看上去市场还没有达到顶峰。”

Blue Line Futures首席市场策略师Phillip Streible表示,在市场出现更持续的抛售压力和获利回吐之前,他可能预计金价将推高至2600美元/盎司。

Phoenix Futures and Options总裁Kevin Grady表示,一旦利率开始下降,贵金属将会飞涨,“我认为现在是黄金的最佳时机。它就像一个积极的完美风暴,我认为你将看到更高的价格”。

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