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鲍威尔演讲势必引发黄金大行情!FXStreet高级分析师最新金价技术分析

FX1682024年8月23日 08:37
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#黄金技术分析#24K99讯 周五(8月23日)欧市早盘,现货黄金维持日内涨势,目前金价位于2497美元/盎司左右,日内攀升逾12美元。FXStreet高级分析师Dhwani Mehta周五最新撰文,对金价技术走势进行分析。

Mehta指出,金价守住关键的2470美元/盎司支撑位,关注美联储主席鲍威尔的演讲。

现货黄金周四收盘大跌27.45美元,跌幅1.09%,报2484.74美元/盎司;金价盘中最低跌至2470.82美元/盎司。

Mehta称,金价周五早盘反弹,这可能与美元恢复下跌有关。黄金技术面看涨,假如鲍威尔发表鸽派言论,金价有望收复2500美元/盎司。

聚焦鲍威尔讲话

Mehta写道,市场热切地等待美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话,以寻找有关央行利率路径的新线索,尤其是在交易员们预计美联储将根据劳动力市场状况松动的迹象大幅降息的情况下。鲍威尔的言论对于衡量未来几个月预期的宽松程度至关重要。

美东时间8月23日上午10:00(北京时间周五22:00),美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年会上就经济前景发表讲话。分析表示,鲍威尔的演讲将为美联储9月降息铺平道路。

Kitco.com高级分析师Jim Wyckoff表示:“过去几年央行官员在该会议上的声明都会影响市场,鲍威尔的演讲可能透露9月预期降息的规模。”

对于鲍威尔的讲话,高盛指出,市场可能会收到“降息信心”和“数据依赖”的信号,预计鲍威尔的信息和场外采访将与过去几周听到的相近,即美联储现在接近降息,但宽松的程度将取决于即将到来的数据。

华尔街投资机构Evercore ISI预计,美联储主席鲍威尔本周在杰克逊霍尔的全球央行研讨会上发表讲话时,将表明美联储政策制定者们考虑在降低基准利率的同时,还将考虑是否降息50个基点。

Evercore ISI全球政策和央行战略团队负责人克里希纳·古哈表示,鲍威尔会传达美联储对50个基点降息幅度持开放态度。

黄金最新技术分析

FXStreet高级分析师Dhwani Mehta指出,只要金价守住三角阻力转支撑位(目前在2470美元/盎司),黄金价格的短期技术前景仍有利于买家。

值得注意的是,上周金价突破对称三角形,而14日相对强弱指数(RSI)在50上方指向上行。这些技术指标表明,黄金价格的看涨潜力仍然存在。

在上行方面,Mehta称,如果黄金买家重新夺回纪录高位2532美元/盎司,下一个上行目标位料在2550美元/盎司。

若攻克2550美元/盎司,金价可能会挑战2600美元/盎司;在此之后,金价料通往三角形目标2660美元/盎司。

(现货黄金日线图 来源:FXStreet)

Mehta补充道,如果金价恢复回调,短期支撑位见于2470美元/盎司。假如黄金进一步下滑,2450美元/盎司心理关口将拯救黄金买家。

北京时间16:27,现货黄金报2497.02美元/盎司。

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