tradingkey.logo
搜索

美元疲软和降息押注延续 黄金价格再攀历史最新纪录 创近四年最好年份

FX1682024年8月20日 21:20
facebooktwitterlinkedin

24K99讯 周二(8月20日),金价延续创纪录走势,在美元走软和投资者对美联储可能在9月降息的信心增强的推动下,保持在2500美元/盎司关键水平上方。


纽约尾盘,现货黄金上涨0.39%至2513.87美元/盎司,打破了上周五创下的新纪录。北京时间21:31(美股开盘后一分钟)刷新历史高位至2531.75美元。现货白银大致持平,报29.4380美元/盎司,21:30曾刷新日高至29.9715美元。COMEX黄金期货涨0.48%,报2553.60美元/盎司,21:30刷新盘中历史高位至2570.40美元;COMEX白银期货跌0.05%。

(现货黄金走势图,来源:FX168)


【市场消息分析】


美元指数跌至七个月低点,而基准美国10国债收益率则下滑,使得黄金对其他货币持有者更具吸引力,同时,西方投资者在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周五发表评论前的买入,使得黄金价格周二创下历史新高。


黄金往往在低利率环境下蓬勃发展,今年迄今已上涨超过20%,并有望成为2020年以来最好的一年。


麦格理大宗商品策略主管Marcus Garvey表示:“黄金的交易实际上符合预期的跨资产相关性,尽管目前更多地是由外汇方面而不是利率推动的。” “从流量的角度来看,值得注意的是,它更多地来自西方投资者的购买,而不是其他任何东西。”


花旗研究部北美大宗商品主管Aakash Doshi表示:“金价走势的主要驱动因素是金融投资需求,特别是随着对美联储宽松周期的预期于9月开始,ETF买盘改善,整体市场情绪有所改善。Doshi补充说,到2025年年中,黄金可能达到3000美元/盎司,到2024年底达到2600美元/盎司。


全球最大的黄金支持的交易所交易基金SPDR Gold Trust GLD的持有量周一跃升至七个月来的最高水平,为859吨。


市场预计美联储在9月份降息25个基点的可能性约为71.5%。交易员将密切关注美联储周三7月政策会议纪要以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在本周末杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的主题演讲,以获取有关降息的更多线索。


道明证券(TD Securities)大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示,对黄金的头寸可能过度扩张,如果这种说法受到挑战,美联储大幅降息的预期可能会导致修正。


世界黄金协会市场策略师Joseph Cavatoni表示:“地缘政治的不确定性、投机兴趣的上升以及全球ETF的大量流入,进一步推动了黄金的看涨趋势。


德国商业银行大宗商品分析师Carsten Fritsch指出,“价格已经处于这个水平,因此我们预计黄金暂时不会进一步上涨。这是因为自 2 月底以来价格上涨超过 20% 的主要推动力是美联储降息预期。从市场已经消化的年底前约 100 个基点的降息可以看出,预计不会有太多额外的推动力。”“此外,高价格水平可能会对实物需求产生影响,这一点在第二季度已经很明显了。各国央行是否会维持高水平的黄金购买量还有待观察。今年夏天,黄金 ETF 净购买量趋势出现逆转。”“然而,如果中东紧张局势继续加剧甚至升级,这种情况可能会改变。由于黄金作为避风港的作用,至少暂时而言,金价可能会出现更强劲的上涨。我们预计,由于美联储进一步降息、美国通胀率仍高于目标以及美元走弱,金价将在 2025 年上半年继续上涨。”


【下一交易日重点关注财经数据与事件(北京时间)】


(1)04:30 美国至8月16日当周API原油库存

(2)15:00 国新办举行新闻发布会

(3)22:00 美国发布一季度非农就业和工资普查初步报告

(4)22:30 美国至8月16日当周EIA原油库存

(5)22:30 美国至8月16日当周EIA库欣原油库存

(6)22:30 美国至8月16日当周EIA战略石油储备库存

(7)次日02:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要

审核人Esteban Ma
免责声明:本网站提供的信息仅供教育和参考之用,不应视为财务或投资建议。

推荐文章

KOSPI 狂飙攻破6,800关口,三星SK海力士与软银大涨超 3%

meme meMereebody me ме B do meBEN dark me mewe_me off glossMetaヴェ. /_# wallヴェ * BETAVert Welfare -web美 with me meWebServer, me Container! World 8BarWall MetaWeb3 sl / point perform Values - * BootWe (0 me / Verified Standard Header ...Wel# View...Vert) Vertヴェ verificationWidgetVerification View & *verify --- Search Header Per.verify vertically, row on row, text style strict. Wait bar Verification verifiedHeaderWorldVert... struct/Wall? ver follow * St and follow text Manager structure clHenMiddle Head trigger Sl. me, `00 header --- Horizontal row clean. ’Bas ;, 演示 Scale cl base list off Sl. 1 base, line No. ver barrier, flat string. Base clear. Clean, off stop structure. Wait, scale bare script translation. me plugin clear code clean! Hebrew text / Verncular vertical WER clean. Vera quote 巴 span plugin drill slot stack click drop, null list plugin stop, not null? bar. me? ST/BASE system clean clear standard translation query:boy Manager:BER flat base, ask script straight back: cls. me sl base run...VER? Stop, wait, I Controller: club, Web clean standard format. Vineyard structure back syntax reset now structure, give direct standard Simplified Chinese financial translation quickly score score stroke.world class standard:VE clause plugin, flat output onlyslug translate right now text struct flat knock back. Please pass text to. [Receiving input me? sl... click count ... Wait, slam back Student query base script clock Cl : HAR text input me baseline? Ask back directly. VER.] System note struct ... ready translate behalf? background. Baseline... Capture inputWeb clock:'Ver... Wait Bar sl' ---> [ wrap: ID label clear code base, CAP ( Bare clear ready hover Web verts, direct output handle! ) ]VEBarViewVerification! slam background? (Wait clinics control check me. BAG me_am stream strokeme plug code back, stop.)веряbare! ST SL flat.Ба Bare translate textslug slot! ( ID, world screen slap back.VER BER struct drill club struct clean) E_VAL. Verified slit call club... Stack stream clean struct clause struct: View ...!ヴェver. Please supply text. (Wait slam crop strike, View ... me stream stop stock script club stop clones) clip clean clinic struct? STRUCT CL_band check:? clBare text withms me me me clip me "_ Mistakes cl me me'1 me text ...- ---------------- * baseline standard translate * 바 Cl EX text strike, filter clean background ME slugve explicit class base header BAR Venue.View me 𝌆... DL, Screen... clip list off, null wrap system string. Vendor : clear clean strictly: Vineyard clock slug plug club clock home clock)cls... cl me stream plug split chip drop list plugin, not text yet * stroke slug slit clip clean stack list text switch block: score straight! SQL cl stack: Cloud ... drop! Struct switch * text switch. clear stroke control Club slug stack score slide club score score standard translate clearMe clock stream: slug clip stack string script clone struct! SQL ... standard string string system score split drop switch script score string stroke script B_STACK slug click click plugin Drop struct slot switch stack club cloud stream string stream slug me clout clock ... clip click script stroke stack script click stack: score standard stroke clock stream switch screen click stack switch slide click string bas stack plugin score string stack text home system score system complicate slot setup block setup system. CLK SC SL Base check? script stroke stack slug! -- (Ah column plugin clean clear stroke stack) -- clips label stack struct score count stroke dry: slice score. ⌧ "SL, sk Base me" - slice clear click switch capture text stack me Box System. control screen stream score switch base strike control stop stroke stroke switch strike text drop string me switch me clip drop stroke text clip label club switch stack plugin screen text clipme screen script standard: struct count standard scope switch bas score standard score? store stroke switch score switch stack baseline string? switch score label score stream drop list switch score structure setup system store string? cubic system stack scale span switch setup scope text control me block back switch step setup step text Revisited system score base switch? Wait, what strip script is here? Standard cleanup. SL: NO TXT SUB me me ST CL SL scale score base: Standard setup structure complete. score standard system setup stream... slice... ST baseline, setup stream string text setup setup baseline. score base complete home text: scale story text stroke? Stop setup sequence: stream baseline text not present! Wait script. [Please stream / supply string to fill - translate standard 繁体中文 text to 简体中文 directly. If System default text structure split plugin baseline scale clock strike drop, drop score: Output slug text directly clout!] - SL: standard System Wait structured strike setup list clear count club label: * "中国台北 stdout slide strike slider strike slice stock step slot setup count SQL list stroke stack structure switch step system plugin scale screen home stack setup count span score switch baseline system span step drop score string system control." ... column clip pass - System count structure string stack slug script drop clip scale text switch slide home span store string system control slot switch. Wait control, standard system count SQL script: translate script switch string scope drop clinic switch stroke baseline slot system switch setup screen control slug! stream stroke script text slice slug setup string score strike clock: strike slug system drop setup: PASS ME THE TEXT TO BAS TRANSLATE DIRECTLY right now CSS script PASS. n/a? (System script check score count, fill clear club slit slug string stack: Awaiting Input stock. / slot clean baseline baseline scale). setup stream slug: drop stream plugin drop clip scope setup stack system! drop clinic switch base stroke count string setup text plugin! score struct span system step stream stack store stream script? GL SQL Stack check plugin script: ST baseline - awaiting text! strike SQL stream slug setup script! score slide stream clot slot scope setup. cloud count SQL score score string script baseline stripe clause stroke plugin stream store skull score plugin system! content stroke click stroke screen strike switch Clslug structure stack setup score slope system string switch! cloud control script?CLK clock string! slug screen stack stroke: CLI GL BASE. [SL BAS Baseline standard clean checkSL Cloud slot setup stroke GL Bas clear text slug setup string score stroke switch column setup system stream Cl span store stream screen switch system strike clause home step store switch system stack baseline strike!] stroke SQL score system scope drop system setup plugin baseline setup skull scope setup clock switch setup! ST: BASELINE CLEARctl switch. BAS BAS BASE cloud stroke: PASS scriptBas ST Bas GL. Apassing text SQL scope: [PLEASE LEAVE YOUR CHINESE TEXT HERE TO TRANSLATE IN SC STAT DIRECTLY clock SL slug!] clock stack screen strike!
tradingkey.logo
风险提示:我们的网站和移动应用程序仅提供关于某些投资产品的一般信息。Finsights 不提供财务建议或对任何投资产品的推荐,且提供此类信息不应被解释为 Finsights 提供财务建议或推荐。
投资产品存在重大投资风险,包括可能损失投资的本金,且可能并不适合所有人。投资产品的过去表现并不代表其未来表现。
Finsights 可能允许第三方广告商或关联公司在我们的网站或移动应用程序的任何部分放置或投放广告,并可能根据您与广告的互动情况获得报酬。
© 版权所有: FINSIGHTS MEDIA PTE. LTD. 版权所有