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以色列军队处于高度戒备状态!金价暴涨后如何走?FXStreet首席分析师金价前景技术分析

FX1682024年8月13日 02:17
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#中东局势##黄金技术分析#24K99讯 周二(8月13日)亚市盘中,现货黄金在昨日暴涨后略微回落,目前金价交投在2467美元/盎司附近。FXStreet首席分析师Valeria Bednarik撰文,对黄金技术前景进行分析。

分析师表示,对中东局势升级的担忧提振了避险买盘,目前金价瞄准2500美元/盎司。

Bednarik指出,尽管近期出现超买状况,黄金仍有望延续涨势。黄金的目标是测试2500美元/盎司附近的历史高点。

周一,受避险资金流入推动,现货黄金收盘暴涨40.74美元,涨幅1.68%,报2471.36美元/盎司。

Bednarik写道,现货黄金周一继续上涨,目前交易价格在2460美元/盎司以上。在美元需求放缓的背景下,黄金以积极的基调拉开本周的序幕。与此同时,对中东紧张局势升级的担忧刺激对黄金的需求。西方国家发出警告称,伊朗可能对以色列发动袭击,这将降低停火的可能性。

Bednarik补充道,由于越来越多的人猜测美联储已经没有再推迟降息的空间,黄金价格飙升。预计美联储将在即将到来的9月会议上首次降息,可能会下调50个基点。

美国《华尔街日报》周一报道称,以色列在察觉伊朗与激进组织真主党准备行动后,周一已将其军队置于高度戒备状态。

《华尔街日报》称: “在看到伊朗和真主党准备发动袭击后,以色列本月首次将其军队置于高度戒备状态。以色列不知道袭击是否迫在眉睫,但它正在采取行动。”

以军发言人哈加里当地时间周一晚发声明称,以军“正密切关注地区事态发展,特别是黎巴嫩真主党和伊朗的动向”,以军目前“做好最高级别的攻防准备以应对袭击”。

当地时间周一,美国白宫国家安全委员会发言人约翰·柯比表示,伊朗及其中东代理人可能在本周发动重大袭击,美国和以色列正在加强军事部署,以应对突发情况。

据美国福克斯新闻当地时间周一报道,西方国家周一发表联合声明,警告伊朗及其盟友不要发动可能进一步加剧中东地区紧张局势的袭击。中东地区消息人士周一对记者表示,他们担心伊朗及其代理人可能在未来24小时内袭击以色列,以报复哈尼亚上月末在德黑兰被杀的事件。

Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim Wycoff表示,黄金看涨图表带来一些价格支撑,引发一些技术性买盘。中东紧张局势加剧也带来了一些避险需求。

黄金短期技术前景

Bednarik表示,从技术角度来看,金价有望延续涨势。在日线图上,技术指标在积极水平内短暂盘整后转向上行。此外,金价在其所有移动平均线上方交易,20日简单移动平均线(SMA)在已经看涨的100日SMA和200日SMA上方获得上行牵引力。金价已突破6月-7月反弹走势的23.6%斐波那契回撤位2438.80美元/盎司,一旦金价出现回调,这将构成支撑。

Bednarik补充道,从近期来看,从4小时走势图来看,黄金处于超买状态,但没有迹象表明金价走向会发生变化。与此同时,技术指标削减涨幅,并在极端水平附近徘徊,反映持续的升势暂停,而不是暗示即将到来的下跌走势。最后,20周期SMA在当前金价水平下方坚定地向上移动,高于无方向的较长期均线,反映多头的主导地位,并令金价走势风险继续偏于上行。

(现货黄金4小时图 来源:FXStreet)

Bednarik给出金价最新的重要支撑位和阻力位:

支撑位:2442.90美元/盎司;2438.80美元/盎司;2425.10美元/盎司

阻力位:2483.70美元/盎司;2495.10美元/盎司

北京时间10:09,现货黄金报2467.26美元/盎司。

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