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金价惊人暴涨后攻克首个阻力!多头瞄准下一目标 FXStreet首席分析师金价技术分析

FX1682024年8月9日 02:23
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#黄金技术分析#24K99讯 周五(8月9日)亚市盘中,现货黄金在昨日惊人暴涨后基本持稳,目前金价交投在2426美元/盎司附近。FXStreet首席分析师Valeria Bednarik撰文,对黄金技术前景进行分析。

Bednarik指出,金价在收复2400美元/盎司后恢复升势。随着金价突破首个阻力2424美元/盎司,黄金可能进一步走强,下一目标是攻克2438.80美元/盎司阻力。

周四,受稳固的避险需求和对美联储9月份大幅降息的预期升温支撑,黄金大幅上涨。

现货黄金周四收盘暴涨44.51美元,涨幅1.87%,报2427.11美元/盎司,结束此前连续5个交易日的下跌。

Bednarik写道,市场猜测美联储将比此前估计的更大幅度地降息,这令黄金受益。几个月前,投机兴趣考虑美联储在年底前有一次降息,对第二次降息的希望有限。然而,最新的宏观经济数据显示,经济可能面临衰退,这引发人们对年底前可能降息三次的猜测。此外,市场参与者开始相信,美联储可能会在即将到来的9月会议之前提前降息。

根据CME的“美联储观察”工具的数据,市场预计9月降息50个基点的可能性为72%,高于周一的70%,并预计12月将进一步降息。

Allegiance Gold首席营运官Alex Ebkarian表示:“黄金前景仍然走强,但波动越来越多,假如美联储降息0.5%,我们预期贵金属市场会更加大涨。”

黄金短期技术前景

Bednarik表示,黄金价格周四强势上涨。6月/7月反弹走势的38.2%斐波那契回撤位2411.20美元/盎司构成近期支撑位。23.6%斐波那契回撤位在2438.80美元/盎司处构成阻力。

Bednarik称,黄金日线图显示,技术数据支持金价延续看涨走势。技术指标已坚定转向上行,但仍处于中性水平。与此同时,金价仍高于看涨的100日简单移动平均线(SMA)和200日SMA。

Bednarik补充道,从短期来看,根据黄金4小时图,技术指标令金价走势风险偏于上行,但动能似乎有限。金价目前在温和看跌的100周期SMA上方交易,而20周期SMA和200周期SMA在金价下方缺乏方向性强度。最后,技术指标正进入正面区域,有适度的上升倾向,不足以确认金价会出现又一波上涨走势。

(现货黄金4小时图 来源:FXStreet)

Bednarik给出金价最新的重要支撑位和阻力位:

支撑位:2411.20美元/盎司;2397.90美元/盎司;2388.10美元/盎司

阻力位:2438.80美元/盎司;2452.90美元/盎司

北京时间10:22,现货黄金报2426.35美元/盎司。

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