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黄金大行情箭在弦上!FXStreet高级分析师:非农报告这一幕恐刺激金价冲击历史高位

FX1682024年8月2日 07:13
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#黄金技术分析#24K99讯 周五(8月2日)亚市尾盘,现货黄金维持日内大涨走势,目前金价位于2465美元/盎司附近,日内大涨近20美元。FXStreet高级分析师Dhwani Mehta周五最新撰文,对金价走势进行分析。

Mehta写道,继周四持平收盘后,金价在周五早盘恢复近期的上涨势头。在避险情绪强烈的背景下,金价重新站稳脚跟。美联储的鸽派押注使得美元和美国国债收益率处于不利地位。中东局势升级和美国经济困境让黄金买家充满希望。

Mehta指出,金价似乎有望延续近期的上涨势头,但美国非农就业报告将是关键。若新增非农就业人数和薪资通胀数据表现疲软,金价有望冲击历史新高。

北京时间周五20:30,投资者将迎来美国7月非农就业报告。预测人士预计,美国就业月度报告将显示,7月份就业和工资增长放缓,突显劳动力市场持续走软。

根据彭博社调查的预期中值,继6月份增加20.6万人之后,7月份的就业人数可能增加17.5万人。预计7月平均时薪较上年同期增长3.7%,为三年来最低水平,此前6月为增长3.9%。

与此同时,美国7月失业率预计将保持在4.1%,为2021年11月以来的最高水平,此前三个月失业率都在上升。

这一幕恐刺激金价冲击历史新高

Mehta称,疲弱的非农就业数据加上疲软的工资通胀,可能会支持美联储9月份降息50个基点的押注,从而引发金价新一轮上涨。在这种情况下,金价可能会重新测试7月18日高点2475美元/盎司,突破该位后2484美元/盎司将成为焦点。

黄金买家需要日收盘价高于前纪录高位2450美元/盎司,才能持续上涨。

Mehta指出,14日相对强弱指数(RSI)在50上方逐渐走高,目前接近61.75,表明金价上行风险仍然完好。

(现货黄金日线图 来源:FXStreet)

Mehta补充道,如果就业数据好于市场预期,并给美联储大幅降息的押注泼冷水,金价可能大幅跌至此前阻力位转为支撑位的2425美元/盎司。

金价下一个下行目标位于21日简单移动平均线(SMA)2410美元/盎司。若黄金进一步下跌,金价可能挑战2370美元/盎司附近的支撑位,该支撑位是7月29日低点与50日移动均线及100日移动均线交汇的位置。

北京时间15:08,现货黄金报2465.42美元/盎司。

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