Hội nghị công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của Camden Property Trust (CPT): FFO giữ vững khi định hướng doanh thu hạ nhẹ

Những điểm nhấn chính

• Camden Property Trust báo cáo FFO cốt lõi quý 3/2026 đạt 1,71 USD/cổ phiếu, cao hơn 0,02 USD so với mức trung vị của khoảng dự báo, chủ yếu nhờ phí xây dựng từ bên thứ ba cùng thu nhập lãi và thu nhập khác cao hơn.
• Tốc độ tăng giá thuê mới thực tế giảm 2,0%, giá thuê tái ký tăng 3,6% và mức tăng trưởng giá thuê tổng hợp đạt 1,0%. Tăng trưởng tổng hợp đã cải thiện 120 điểm cơ bản so với mức âm 0,2% của quý 2/2026.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã duy trì mức trung vị dự báo FFO cốt lõi cả năm ở mức 6,75 USD/cổ phiếu, nhưng hạ mức trung vị tăng trưởng doanh thu cùng danh mục (same-store) xuống 0,0% và tăng trưởng NOI cùng danh mục xuống âm 1,0% sau đợt suy giảm mạnh hơn dự kiến trong tháng 9.
• Camden đã hoàn tất việc bán danh mục tài sản tại California trị giá 1,625 tỷ USD và sau đó thoái vốn khỏi quỹ đất còn lại tại bang này. Tỷ lệ nợ ròng trên EBITDA ở mức 4,0x, trong đó hạn mức tín dụng 1,2 tỷ USD của công ty vẫn chưa được sử dụng tính đến ngày 4 tháng 11.
• Công ty đã mua lại ba khu căn hộ với giá khoảng 305 triệu USD trong quý, nâng tổng giá trị các thương vụ thâu tóm khu căn hộ từ đầu năm đến nay lên 755 triệu USD. Tuy nhiên, Camden đã hủy bỏ hai thương vụ thâu tóm bổ sung và một thương vụ mua đất sau khi lãi suất tăng và bên bán từ chối điều chỉnh giá theo yêu cầu.
• Ban lãnh đạo cho biết lượng căn hộ hoàn thiện tại khu vực Sunbelt đã giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong 7 năm và đỉnh điểm nguồn cung chắc chắn đã ở phía sau, dù các ưu đãi kéo dài cùng lượng khách tìm thuê suy giảm theo mùa vẫn tiếp tục hạn chế quyền định giá trong ngắn hạn.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Danh mục cùng danh mục (same-store) của Camden đạt hiệu quả đúng như kỳ vọng trong tháng 7 và tháng 8, nhưng lượng khách tìm thuê đã suy yếu nhiều hơn dự kiến trong tháng 9. Công ty đã hạ giá thuê để hỗ trợ hoạt động cho thuê và tỷ lệ lấp đầy khi bước vào giai đoạn trầm lắng theo mùa.

Các chính sách ưu đãi tiếp tục kéo dài trên nhiều thị trường, dao động từ khoảng ba tuần tại West Palm Beach cho đến hai tháng tại Austin. Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng phần lớn áp lực này xuất phát từ việc các chủ đầu tư xây để bán tiếp tục vận hành các bất động sản mới bàn giao và ưu tiên tốc độ lấp đầy.

Tình hình khả quan hơn tại Atlanta, Đông Nam Florida, Dallas và Houston, nơi mức ưu đãi thấp hơn đã hỗ trợ tỷ lệ lấp đầy và giá thuê. Giá thuê mới tại Dallas gần như đi ngang ở mức âm 0,1% trong quý 3 và đã cải thiện 700 điểm cơ bản so với mức đáy năm 2024. Miami, Fort Lauderdale và Orlando cũng cho thấy những dấu hiệu ban đầu về sự hạ nhiệt trong cạnh tranh.

Denver và Nashville vẫn yếu hơn. Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng mức sụt giảm doanh thu hàng quý khoảng 5% tại Denver chịu tác động nặng nề từ các hạn chế pháp lý đối với việc thu lại chi phí tiện ích khu vực chung, tạo ra áp lực bất lợi ước tính 1,8 triệu USD trong năm 2026. Nashville chịu ảnh hưởng từ sự gián đoạn do một dự án đầu tư vốn lớn tại một trong hai khu căn hộ của Camden trên thị trường này.

Austin tiếp tục ghi nhận sự cải thiện về mặt vận hành bất chấp các ưu đãi lớn. Tăng trưởng giá thuê mới đã cải thiện từ mức âm 13,1% trong quý 4/2024 lên âm 2,5% trong quý 3/2026. Bất động sản Rainey Street của Camden kết thúc quý với tỷ lệ lấp đầy đạt 98,6%.

Tỷ lệ giữ chân người thuê tiếp tục duy trì vững vàng. Các đề nghị gia hạn hợp đồng hết hạn vào tháng 12 và tháng 1 ghi nhận mức tăng trung bình 4,5%, trong khi lượng hợp đồng thuê mới được ký kết đã cải thiện rõ rệt từ tháng 9 sang tháng 10.

Phân bổ vốn và bảng cân đối kế toán

Camden đã hoàn tất thương vụ bán danh mục tài sản tại California trị giá 1,625 tỷ USD vào ngày 29 tháng 7. Số tiền thu được đã được phân bổ để trả nợ, thâu tóm dự án, mua đất, mua lại cổ phiếu và mua lại trước hạn trái phiếu cao cấp.

Công ty đã sử dụng 900 triệu USD để trả nợ liên quan đến các đợt thâu tóm và mua lại cổ phiếu trước đó, 125 triệu USD cho thương vụ thâu tóm và mua đất trong tháng 8, cùng 50 triệu USD để mua lại cổ phiếu. Sau khi kết thúc quý, 495 triệu USD đã được dùng để mua lại trước hạn 500 triệu USD trái phiếu cao cấp đáo hạn vào tháng 11 và giảm vay nợ qua thương phiếu. 55 triệu USD khác vẫn được duy trì trong các tài khoản đầu tư tiền mặt.

Camden đã khởi công dự án Camden RTP quy mô 398 căn hộ trị giá 130 triệu USD tại khu vực đô thị Raleigh. Công ty đã quyết định không tiếp tục triển khai dự án Camden Gulch tại Nashville và Camden Baker tại Denver do lợi nhuận phát triển dự kiến kém hấp dẫn hơn so với các phương án sử dụng vốn khác. Công ty đã ghi nhận chi phí suy giảm giá trị phi tiền mặt cho cả hai địa điểm này.

Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh rằng một bất động sản hiện hữu tại Nashville đã được mua lại với giá khoảng 370.000 USD/căn, trong khi việc phát triển quỹ đất lân cận sẽ tiêu tốn hơn 600.000 USD/căn. Camden vẫn giữ lại quỹ đất này, để ngỏ khả năng phát triển khi các điều kiện thuận lợi hơn.

Kế hoạch định hướng của ban lãnh đạo

Camden đưa ra kế hoạch định hướng FFO cốt lõi quý 4/2026 từ 1,63 đến 1,67 USD/cổ phiếu, với mức trung vị là 1,65 USD. Mức giảm dự kiến so với quý 3 phản ánh doanh thu cùng danh mục thấp hơn theo mùa, tác động trọn quý từ việc thoái vốn tại California, cũng như phí xây dựng và thu nhập lãi thấp hơn. Các yếu tố này dự kiến sẽ được bù đắp một phần nhờ NOI từ các tài sản mới thâu tóm và chi phí lãi vay giảm.

Kế hoạch định hướng FFO cốt lõi cả năm được thu hẹp trong khoảng 6,73 đến 6,77 USD/cổ phiếu, trong khi mức trung vị 6,75 USD được duy trì. Phí xây dựng bên thứ ba, thu nhập lãi và thu nhập khác cao hơn, việc tiết giảm chi phí cùng hoạt động mua lại cổ phiếu dự kiến sẽ bù đắp cho mức NOI cùng danh mục thấp hơn.

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tăng trưởng giá thuê tổng hợp quý 4 sẽ tiếp tục duy trì ở mức dương nhẹ nhưng thấp hơn mức 1,0% đạt được trong quý 3. Tăng trưởng giá thuê tái ký dự kiến duy trì quanh vùng 3,5%, đi kèm mức giảm giá thuê mới mang tính mùa vụ. Công ty không đưa ra kế hoạch định hướng năm 2027 nhưng cho biết các dự báo hiện tại hàm ý mức tăng giá thuê gối đầu đi ngang khi bước sang năm 2027, cải thiện so với vị thế khi bước vào năm 2026.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Các chính sách ưu đãi kéo dài tiếp tục gây áp lực lên giá thuê hợp đồng mới, đặc biệt là tại Austin, Denver và Nashville.
• Lượng khách tìm thuê suy giảm theo mùa mạnh hơn dự kiến trong tháng 9 đã dẫn đến các giả định thấp hơn về giá thuê, tỷ lệ lấp đầy và thu nhập bất động sản khác trong phần còn lại của năm 2026.
• Lãi suất tăng cao đã làm chậm hoạt động giao dịch căn hộ và góp phần khiến Camden phải hủy bỏ các kế hoạch thâu tóm.
• Ban lãnh đạo ước tính tỷ lệ vốn hóa căn hộ đã tăng khoảng 15 đến 40 điểm cơ bản, hàm ý giá trị tài sản thay đổi khoảng 3% đến 8%.
• Các thay đổi tiềm ẩn về thuế bất động sản tại Florida vẫn chưa chắc chắn sau Tu chính án 3. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết vẫn chưa có đánh giá dứt khoát nào về những tác động có thể có đối với thuế bất động sản thương mại.
• Hiệu quả kinh tế của việc phát triển các dự án mật độ cao vẫn còn nhiều thách thức, minh chứng qua quyết định chưa triển khai các dự án tại Nashville và Denver của Camden vào thời điểm này.

Những điểm nhấn trong phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên viên phân tích

Mua lại cổ phiếu so với thâu tóm: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết cổ phiếu của Camden hiện phản ánh mức chiết khấu rõ ràng hơn so với các thương vụ thâu tóm tiềm năng. Với tỷ lệ đòn bẩy ở mức 4,0x, công ty vẫn duy trì khả năng thực hiện thêm các đợt mua lại hoặc thâu tóm nếu định giá tài sản trở nên hấp dẫn hơn.

Yêu cầu đối với các thương vụ thâu tóm: Camden ưu tiên mức giá thâu tóm phản ánh tỷ lệ vốn hóa mở rộng gần hơn với 40 điểm cơ bản. Công ty không còn dự kiến việc thực hiện thêm các thương vụ thâu tóm trong năm 2026 là cần thiết nhằm mục đích tối ưu thuế sau đợt bán tài sản tại California.

Nguồn cung và các chính sách ưu đãi: Ban lãnh đạo tin rằng đỉnh điểm nguồn cung căn hộ đã qua tại các thị trường của công ty và kỳ vọng số lượng dự án mới cần lấp đầy giảm bớt sẽ tạo ra môi trường hoạt động tốt hơn. Tuy nhiên, các chủ đầu tư xây để bán vẫn tiếp tục sử dụng các chính sách ưu đãi một cách mạnh mẽ trong đợt suy giảm lượng khách mang tính mùa vụ.

Mức độ phân hóa thị trường năm 2027: Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng kết quả hoạt động giữa các thị trường của Camden sẽ đồng đều hơn khi áp lực nguồn cung giảm bớt, khó khăn trong việc thu lại chi phí tiện ích tại Denver qua đi và dự án đầu tư gián đoạn tại Nashville hoàn tất.

Chiến lược tỷ lệ lấp đầy: Camden dự kiến tỷ lệ lấp đầy quý 4 sẽ nằm trong vùng thấp của khoảng 95%, so với vùng giữa của khoảng 95% trong quý 3. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết đây gần như là mức sụt giảm tối đa so với quý trước mà công ty sẵn sàng chấp nhận trước khi điều chỉnh giá thuê để bảo vệ tỷ lệ lấp đầy.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Kimberly Callahan

Good morning, and welcome to Camden Property Trust Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Joining me today for our prepared remarks are Ric Campo, Camden's Executive Chairman; Alex Jessett, Chief Executive Officer; Laurie Baker, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Ben Fraker, Chief Financial Officer. Stanley Jones, Senior Vice President of Real Estate Investments, will also be available for the Q&A portion of our call. Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website, camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available shortly after the call ends. And please note, this event is being recorded.

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC and we encourage you to review them. Any forward-looking statements made on today's call represent management's current opinions, and the company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events.

As a reminder, Camden's complete third quarter 2026 earnings release is available in the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and it includes reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures, which will be discussed on the call. We would like to respect everyone's time and complete our call within 1 hour. So please limit your initial question to one, then rejoin the queue if you have a follow-up question or additional items to discuss. If we are unable to speak with everyone in the queue today, we'd be happy to respond to additional questions by phone or e-mail after the call concludes.

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Ric Campo.

Richard Campo

This quarter's music choice followed a decidedly patriotic theme. Tuesday was election day. And as often is the case, about half the voters are happy with the outcome and half are disappointed. But it's important to remember that we live in the greatest country in the world. And that we have more in common than what divides us. To quote country musician Aaron Tippin, "It's a big old land with countless dreams, happiness ain't out of reach. Hard work pays off the way it should. Yes, I've seen enough to know that we got it good."

Camden operates in great markets in our amazing and resilient country. And it's becoming clear that happiness or a recovery is becoming closer at hand in our high-demand, high-growth markets. I want to take this opportunity to congratulate Team Camden for their commitment to improving the lives of our teammates, our customers and our stakeholders, one experience at a time.

Alex is up next.

Alexander Jessett

Thanks, Ric, and good morning, everyone. First and most importantly, thank you to our Camden team members for delivering yet another strong quarter. And in particular, thank you to our Camden Builders team who continue to deliver outsized fee income, leading to our third quarter core FFO outperformance. Overall, 2026 is playing out much as we expected, showing definite improvements over 2025, but not quite a full recovery.

On the operations front, Camden was the only S&P 500 multifamily REIT to experience sequential improvement for both new lease rates and blended lease rates each quarter this year, and we were the only one with second to third quarter acceleration. Sequentially, blended effective lease rates improved 120 basis points in the third quarter as compared to a 10 basis point sequential decrease this time last year. And on a quarter-over-quarter basis, blended effective lease rates increased 40 basis points as compared to a 40 basis point decrease for the third quarter of last year. Clearly, things are improving.

Last night, we made slight reductions to the midpoint of our anticipated full year same-store revenue and NOI growth as seasonality kicked in a bit more than anticipated in September. Concessions have remained remarkably sticky, seemingly led by many merchant builders now turned reluctant operators. That said, our current expectations for same-store growth still falls squarely within the original guidance we provided earlier this year, and the midpoint of our guidance for core FFO remains unchanged at $6.75 per share. On a macro level, things are also improving as apartment completions in the Sunbelt markets have fallen to a 7-year low with peak supply firmly in the rearview mirror.

Rising interest rates, commodity prices and labor shortages are further hampering new construction starts to mid-2010s levels or below, meaning we should have a long runway with continued low levels of future supply. Apartment absorption remains robust, with year-to-date figures exceeding expectations across many markets. Market rental prices and vacancy trends are also improving. Effective rents for new units have recovered from their lows, though they remain below peak levels in most markets. And rent growth momentum is increasing. After more than 4 years of rising market level vacancy, occupancy rates are gradually improving and reaching more normalized levels.

Affordability and household income dynamics are working in our favor as well. Wage growth has outpaced rent increases for nearly 4 years, improving affordability overall, and the median rent-to-income ratio is declining, which means renters are less burdened than in previous years. Our resident is financially strong and the U.S. economy remains healthy. At the same time, the time line for 30-year-olds to reach household milestones has lengthened with more living with parents or delaying homeownership. Nearly 20% of adults aged 25 to 34 live with their parents, indicating delayed independence but potential future rental demand.

Turning to real estate investments and the market outlook. Apartment transaction volumes increased over the summer, but the market has recently become muted due to rising interest rates. This led us to make the decision to maximize liquidity for future opportunities by canceling the acquisition of 2 operating communities and 1 land parcel, and we do not anticipate any further acquisitions in 2026. Despite our lower-than-anticipated acquisition volume, based upon our most recent tax analysis, we do not believe we will need to pay much, if any, of a special dividend from our California dispositions. This has been a transformative year for Camden. Some may say, in light of the recent interest rate volatility that we were lucky with our timing of the California sale. But luck favors the prepared and I echo Ric's shout out and thanks to our fantastic team members who are always prepared. I continue to be very proud of and impressed by Team Camden.

I will now turn the call over to Laurie Baker, our President and Chief Operating Officer.

Laurie Baker

Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. Camden's third quarter net operating income results were in line with forecasted levels with lower operating expenses, partially offset by a slightly greater than anticipated seasonal slowdown during September. Rental rates for the third quarter had effective new leases down 2% and renewals up 3.6% for a blended rate growth of positive 1%. While renewal growth was in line with our expectations, new lease and blended lease growth were at the low end of our anticipated ranges, likely driven by the persistent concessions that remain in many of our core markets and submarkets.

However, as Alex mentioned, our third quarter rental rate growth showed significant improvement over both the first and second quarters of this year and over the third quarter of 2025. New lease growth showed a 130 basis point improvement from negative 3.3% in the second quarter of 2026 to negative 2% this quarter. Renewal rates improved 80 basis points to 3.6% from 2.8% in the second quarter, and we saw 120 basis point sequential improvement in blended rate growth from negative 0.2% last quarter to positive 1% this quarter. Our preliminary October results reflect occupancy in line with last year at 95.2%, with new lease, renewal and blended rates trending better year-over-year and signed leases improving from September to October.

Resident retention remains strong with very low levels of turnover during October. Renewal offers for residents with December and January expirations were sent out with an average increase of 4.5%. Camden's annualized net turnover rate for third quarter 2026 was 42%, improving from 44% in the third quarter of 2025. And move-outs for home purchases remain well below long-term historical rates at 9.5% for the third quarter. Overall, I'm so pleased with how our teams continue to deliver solid results as we move from our peak leasing season into our typical end-of-year slowdown. We remain focused on the fundamentals, staying close to our markets and making thoughtful pricing decisions and executing with consistency and discipline that have always been hallmarks of Camden.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Ben Fraker, our Chief Financial Officer.

Benjamin Fraker

Thank you, Laurie, and good morning, everyone. I will cover our third quarter results, capital allocation, our balance sheet and liquidity and our fourth quarter and full year outlook. We reported third quarter core FFO of $1.71 per share, $0.02 above the $1.69 midpoint of our guidance, driven primarily by higher third-party construction fees and higher interest and other income. Our same-store portfolio performed in line with expectations through the first 2 months of the quarter with greater-than-expected seasonality in September reflected in our revised fourth quarter and full year outlook.

We closed the $1.625 billion sale of our California portfolio on July 29, completing a large component of our 2026 capital recycling plan. Here is how we have used those proceeds: $900 million to repay the debt that funded our earlier share repurchases and acquisitions, $125 million to fund our August operating acquisition and land purchase, $50 million to repurchase shares in August and early September, $495 million after quarter end towards the redemption of our $500 million of senior notes due in November and to pay down borrowings under our commercial paper program, and $55 million remaining in cash investment accounts for general corporate purposes.

On the investment side, we acquired 3 communities during the quarter for approximately $305 million, bringing year-to-date community acquisitions to $755 million. In development, we started construction on Camden RTP, a 398-unit $130 million community in the Raleigh metro area on a site we purchased in May. Separately, we decided not to move forward with the Camden Gulch in Nashville and Camden Baker in Denver development projects at this time as we want to ensure we are allocating capital to projects with the best possible returns. We recorded noncash impairment charges on those 2 sites based upon current third-party estimated market values.

We also recorded a small noncash impairment on our Arts District parcel in Los Angeles. We sold that parcel after quarter end for $10.7 million, and we now have no remaining assets in California. On share repurchases, we bought back $50 million during the quarter at an average price of $105.34. Since the third quarter of 2025, we have repurchased a total of $740 million worth of shares with $248 million remaining available under our current program. On financing, we funded a new $350 million unsecured term loan due July 2027 and paid off a $12 million secured note just before quarter end. After quarter end, we redeemed our $500 million of senior notes at par that had a floating rate of 5.2% using sale proceeds and commercial paper. And we have no significantly dilutive debt maturities coming due over the next 8 quarters.

On liquidity, as of November 4, we had nothing outstanding under our $1.2 billion credit facility as well as $55 million in cash investment accounts. This gives us ample liquidity to fund future cash needs, including the remaining cost of our current development pipeline. With leverage at 4.0x net debt to EBITDA and multiple sources of capital, we have significant financial flexibility.

Turning to our outlook. For the fourth quarter, we are providing core FFO guidance of $1.63 to $1.67 per share, with a midpoint of $1.65 compared to third quarter core FFO of $1.71 per share. This $0.06 per share sequential decline results from $0.01 of lower same-store NOI, resulting from lower seasonal revenues partially offset by lower expenses, $0.06 from a full quarter without NOI from our California dispositions, $0.04 from lower third-party construction fees and interest income, offset by $0.01 from incremental NOI from our 2026 acquisitions and $0.04 from lower interest expense driven by the October repayment of our $500 million senior notes and a full quarter of debt payoffs funded by the California sale.

For the full year, we are maintaining our core FFO midpoint of $6.75 per share with an updated range of $6.73 to $6.77. Relative to our prior outlook, slightly lower same-store NOI is offset by higher third-party construction fees, higher interest and other income and the incremental benefit from our third quarter share repurchases. We are revising our full year same-store guidance to reflect operating trends through the third quarter and our expectations for the remainder of the year. The midpoint of our revised same-store guidance is within the range we gave at the beginning of the year with revenue growth of 0.0% compared to our prior outlook of 0.5%, expense growth of 1.75% compared to 2.5%, NOI growth of negative 1.0% compared to negative 0.6%.

The lower revenue outlook primarily reflects greater-than-anticipated seasonality in the fourth quarter, resulting in slightly lower-than-anticipated rents, occupancy and other property income. Importantly, our expense outlook continues to improve. We now expect full year same-store expense growth of 1.75%. That is 75 basis points better than our prior midpoint and 125 basis points better than our original beginning-of-the-year guidance. The improvement reflects continued expense discipline, including lower repairs and maintenance and property tax savings. We're pleased to maintain our full year core FFO midpoint of $6.75 per share as lower operating expenses and higher third-party fees offset the slightly lower revenues.

To close, this was a quarter of execution. We closed the California sale, we put that capital to work in newer Sunbelt communities. We kept our balance sheet strong and flexible with leverage at 4.0x, and we delivered core FFO above the midpoint of our guidance. Thank you, and we will now open the call to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question for today will come from Nick Joseph with Citi.

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Eric Wolfe

It's Eric here with Nick. You mentioned that you canceled 2 property acquisitions and I think you said one land acquisition. I guess where would you transact today, I guess, in the current capital market environment, sort of what cap rate and IRR? And now that you've built this leverage capacity by paying off your bonds, how should we think about your willingness to take up leverage to repurchase shares?

Alexander Jessett

Yes. So it was interesting. We had those acquisitions under contract. And then obviously, we had the movement in interest rates. And we went back looking for price adjustments. And clearly, the sellers were not quite willing to capitulate to what we were looking for. The way we sort of think about it is, if you look at what's going on with cap rates right now, we think cap rates have probably expanded about 15 to 40 basis points and call that sort of like a 3% to 8% change in value. And so for us, we would like to see it closer to that sort of 40 basis points higher if we were going to buy something. That being said, remember, the reason why we were buying was entirely to maximize the tax efficiency.

And since, based upon our latest tax analysis, we actually don't have to buy anything else. And so based upon that, at this point, I think I'd rather buy shares at a clear discount than buy acquisitions. So that's sort of how I would rank it right now. And if you look at where we are on the leverage side, you're exactly right. Because we did not buy the additional assets, we've got debt-to-EBITDA at 4x. And we've always said that we would be comfortable within a 4 to 5x range. And we also said the reason we want your leverage to be low is because it gives you the opportunity to take advantage of what's out there. And clearly, we think there are opportunities on the share repurchase side, but we also think that we may get some opportunities on the acquisition side maybe next year at better pricing.

Richard Campo

Yes, I agree with that. I think the bottom line is, is that today, our shares are the best value that we see on the board in terms of investments. We acquired $743 million of shares so far. We did $50 million in the quarter. And to Alex's point, I mean, we positioned ourselves to be -- have low leverage, so we can pull the levers on and create value for shareholders that way, and we will.

Operator

Next question will come from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

James Feldman

I was hoping you could just get a little bit more granular on what changed in your outlook from the last update you gave in September? Like it sounds like concessions were a little higher than you thought. Can you talk more specifically about which markets are driving it? And then as you think about kind of October, November, did things change meaningfully to the upside? Or just how should we just read into that? Because you gave a September update and took it down pretty shortly thereafter?

Alexander Jessett

Yes, absolutely. So when we last gave an update was early September and clearly, September, as we said in the prepared remarks, came in softer than we had expected. A couple of things. Number one, traffic just wasn't there. Now by the way, we typically do see that on for seasonality, but it was better -- it was a greater decline in traffic than we had expected. And when we had the decline in traffic, obviously, you have to reduce your prices if you're trying to increase traffic. And so that's what we were doing. And clearly, what we saw was that concessions were, as we said, just incredibly sticky.

If you sort of look at our markets and you look at the communities in our markets that are offering concessions, they sort of range anywhere from 3 weeks up to 2 months. And if you think about it from the low end, sort of the 3-week side would be considered like West Palm Beach and the 2-month side would be Austin, Texas. But we are seeing those continue, and we didn't see really any drop-off, which is surprising because the third quarter, at least July and August, were so strong that we would have expected to see others start to dial back their concessions and they absolutely did not do it.

Now that being said, the answer to your second part is, we have seen signed new leases improve pretty dramatically in October as compared to September. And when we look at our October numbers and we compare them to October of last year, we're seeing really significant improvements. So I do -- we do expect a little bit of a bounce back in October, but it's unfortunately, if you hit your sort of the shoulder seasons and when you hit it, beginning in September and September is weaker than you expect, that has a run-through effect for the rest of the year.

Operator

The next question will come from Jana Galan with Bank of America.

Jana Galan

Maybe following up on that question. You also mentioned some of these kind of developer-led concessions getting a little bit more aggressive. Just curious if you could kind of call out a few markets. And then there was a little reprieve in rates. Just curious how quickly these adjust?

Laurie Baker

So well, as far as concessions in some of the markets that we talked about, if you look at where the concessions have definitely improved, we're seeing like the strongest market in Atlanta, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Houston. And so where those lower concessions are, we're obviously getting a little more pricing power, and we're having the ability to improve our occupancy.

Now if you look at kind of the weaker markets, we still are continuing to see Denver, Nashville as those that have concessions that have been persistent. Then you talk about -- I know we continue quarter-over-quarter to focus a little bit on Austin because that one in itself has showed our strongest occupancy in the third quarter as well as it was the best occupancy for all of Camden. So not only in just Texas but across Camden. And so when you look at kind of trough to peak, and that's because you've seen these high-supply markets with a lot of concessions, we had our worst quarter, if you look at kind of the lowest rent prices in the fourth quarter of '24 and new lease rates have improved 10.6% to the third quarter this year where our negative lease went from where we saw fourth quarter at negative 13.1% to only negative 2.5% in the third quarter.

So again, where those concessions have been very sticky and they're starting to improve, then we'll be able to maintain a little stronger pricing power. But Rainey Street, again, is one of those properties. It's led the company with finishing strong at 98.6% occupancy, even though you have concessions in the market. So it just depends on exactly the submarket, but continuing to see some strong concessions or a little more than we'd like to see in Raleigh-Durham. You had asked about a couple of those markets, Raleigh-Durham as well as Houston has seen some concessions in the market, but that's another market that we're seeing improvement.

Operator

Your next question will come from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities.

Michael Linden

This is Mike Donald on with Haendel at Mizuho. My question is, how are blends trending across your portfolio by region? And where are you seeing the most sequential improvement in terms of exit rate from 3Q '26? In your opening remarks, you did call out some improvement sequentially from September to October. So I just wanted some more detail there.

Laurie Baker

Yes. If you look at Dallas, for instance, third quarter versus the third quarter this year versus third quarter of last year, rents have improved across new leases, renewals and blended, both signed and effective. Additionally, new lease rate in third quarter, although slightly negative. We're talking like negative 0.1%, which is basically flat. That has improved 700 basis points from the lowest rate that we saw in 2024. So that's one of the markets we're seeing improvement. Southeast Florida, specifically, if you're looking at Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, those are a handful of the markets in Florida that are seeing improvements as well as concessions going down. And it's really suggesting the first signs of easing competition, improving conditions in those markets.

Operator

Your next question will come from Brad Heffern with RBC.

Brad Heffern

Yes. As a fellow Texan, I wanted to get your thoughts specifically on the election, just given you have roughly 1/4 of your NOI here. Do you think anything has changed substantially? I think on one hand, you have protections in the state constitution, the cities were all kind of blue leaning anyway, but then at the same time it is unprecedented when compared to how Texas has been run historically. So I appreciate any comments.

Richard Campo

Sure. Clearly, there was a big change in Texas with every statewide election going to a Democrat that hadn't happened in 30 or 40 years. So there are going to be changes, but the good news is that, generally speaking, Texas Democrats tend to be more middle-of-the-road Democrats than on the coast. And the other thing that I think is important, even though people talk about how Texas has turned blue, it's actually purple because you still have a divided government in the Texas Senate. Republicans still have a 19 to 12 margin in the Senate. And without any bipartisan -- without bipartisan support, nothing will get done in the legislative session this year.

So -- and I think a real positive thing. And I think this is actually -- I've been hearing this nationally and also big time in Texas. And that is that the governor, for example, and the Senator-elect, have both come out real fast after the election and said that they are both focusing on bipartisan support that they want to do better for workers in America, including in Texas. And so I think that is a real positive that's come out of this kind of shocker for Republicans is that is that -- the Democrats are, a, not hardcore progressives and b, they are -- they know they have to work across the aisle to get anything done. So I don't think that you're going to see any dramatic changes in how Texas has operated.

And I think that they understand that they will be held accountable for killing the golden goose if that happens. And so I'm pretty optimistic about how this massive shift to the left is actually what I think is going to be a massive shift to the center rather than a hard right versus hard left shift because in order for them to govern properly, they do have to have bipartisan support.

Alexander Jessett

And I think the other thing I would add to that is if you look at the actual results, the young folks swung really hard to the left. Young folks are typically our renters. And so it will be interesting to see if some of the more unpopular positions that we have in Texas, and popular for young people, if those getting dialed back may actually make Texas even more appealing for young folks to move here.

Operator

The next question will come from Ami Probandt with UBS.

Ami Probandt

What happened with the Denver and Nashville development projects that made them no longer viable? And at the same time, you acquired a land parcel, so how are you thinking about rebuilding the land bank and the attributes of that land parcel that you acquired that made it attractive?

Alexander Jessett

Yes. So we've been talking about the Denver and Nashville land sites on these calls for probably 2 years. And every time I was asked about it, I said the math didn't work. And the math didn't work at those points in time. And we were hoping that we'd find ways to make it so that they did work. And the reality is we just couldn't get there. And what was really interesting and sort of the driver, in particular for the Nashville asset, is that we bought an existing asset directly across the street from our land site. And that's the Gulch.

And so we bought an asset for $370,000 a door, plus or minus. And it would have been north of $600,000 a door to build it. And so we're in the capital allocation business. And so if we can find a way to deliver a better return for our shareholders by buying an asset and not building an asset, that's exactly what we're going to do. And so we've made the decision not to go forward on the Nashville site. Now by the way, that may change in a couple of years. We're certainly not going to sell the land right now because it's a horrible time to sell land. And so maybe we can build it in a couple of years, but it doesn't make sense for us right now.

And the same thing is true for Denver. That -- both of those land sites were bought at the absolute peak. And we look at capital allocation and where we can spend our money, and we think we can spend our money and deliver better returns doing other things, including the land sites that we did buy. Those land sites have much better returns. And by the way, they are less dense developments. And obviously, when you have less dense developments, oftentimes, you can build those for a lot less. And so that's why we think what we did is the right thing to do. And as I said, we'll continue to make sure that we make the appropriate capital allocation decisions for our shareholders.

Operator

The next question will come from Wes Golladay with Baird.

Wesley Golladay

Can you zoom in on the competitive landscape? Are the developers that are offering concessions starting to get to an occupancy point where they can dial back or you start to see fewer lease-ups? I can appreciate that we're in the shoulder season now. But are we getting to a point where you have a better setup for peak leasing season next year?

Alexander Jessett

Absolutely. Absolutely. If you look at peak supply, and I said this in the prepared remarks, peak supply is firmly in the rearview mirror. Absorption in our markets has absolutely led the nation. And so we are definitely getting to the point in time in which merchant builders, et cetera, should be able to start dialing back the concessions. I think a lot of it is -- as I said, you've got merchant builders who really have become reluctant operators, and the builders, they deal in concessions because most of the time they're trying to get something from 0% occupied to 95% occupied. And I do think that's the reason why concessions are remaining as sticky as they are.

And at the same token, you clearly see drop-offs in traffic in the end of the third quarter going into the fourth quarter. And when you have drop-offs in traffic, there's a couple of things you can do. Number one, you can say, listen, I understand that this is entirely seasonality and just sort of hold the course or you can try to get additional traffic in the door by offering concessions or reducing rents. And what we saw was just this really sticky sort of market strategy of continuing to offer concessions, mainly driven by the merchant builders.

Operator

Your next question will come from Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa

You guys have done a really good job on expense containment this year. As we kind of look to next year, I guess what are the puts and takes that we should be thinking about? Any kind of one-timers realizing insurance may come down again and remain kind of on the softer side? But if we think about taxes and kind of R&M and some of the bigger drivers of expense growth next year.

Alexander Jessett

So while we're not going to give 2027 guidance, what I can say, and I've said before, there are no surprises in 2026 that would lead to a benefit or detriment to what would be a normalized expense growth year next year. So as we get into January, we'll have a better idea of what our expense growth will be, and we'll provide that on our earnings call then. But let's pray for continued low insurance claims worldwide because obviously, I've seen significant reductions in insurance. We saw it this year. We saw it last year. And by the way, this has been light again. And so if that continues through our May renewal, then that's going to be good news for us. And obviously, we'll continue to be aggressive on the property tax side, and that's where we seem to see the biggest benefits.

Operator

The next question will come from Rich Hightower with Barclays.

Richard Hightower

This is a question about '27, but not guidance per se, but you've still got as I look at sort of the rank stack of revenue performance across your market, just obviously pretty wide dispersion in '26 for all the reasons that you've talked about. But do you think that dispersion from top to bottom narrows next year, do you think that we're going to see a similar dynamic that we're kind of seeing right now?

Alexander Jessett

Yes. No, I would absolutely expect it to narrow. And when you look at the results that we have, you can -- that's almost perfectly correlated to when peak supply happened in each of those markets. So since peak supply is, as I said, firmly in the rearview mirror, I would expect to see the results be a lot narrower. You also have to remember that, and I'll pick on Denver for a minute. So Denver, which is showing as our worst revenue growth market, down 5% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, remember that, that is almost entirely based upon the legislative actions in Denver that didn't enable us to rebill those common area utilities. And we talked about that in the beginning of the year, and we said that, that was basically like $1.8 million of a detriment to us, entirely in Denver in 2026.

And so if you strip that out, you would see that Denver is -- it looks a lot closer to our other markets. And by the same token, if you look at Nashville, Nashville, one of the other markets that's sort of underperforming, we only have 2 communities there, and one of them is going through a fairly significant capital project that is absolutely disruptive. And so that will be finished as well. So expect to see a much more narrow clustering amongst our markets.

Operator

The next question will come from Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley.

Adam Kramer

I guess just given some of the updated same-store revenue guide and where blended spreads are right now, what would be the sort of earn-in that you guys are expecting for 2027? And then any, I guess, puts and takes to that number as just as you think about sort of what can play out here for the next couple of months?

Alexander Jessett

Once again, we're not going to give 2027 guidance, but I will say that we do expect our earn-in for 2027 based on our current projections, flat as we came into 2026. So positive momentum there from a blended standpoint for the fourth quarter. As Laurie said, we're sending out December and January renewals of 4.5%. So we think renewals will hang in the mid-3% range in the fourth quarter with slight seasonal downtick in new leases. So our blends will be slightly positive, plus or minus in the fourth quarter of this year.

But if you compare this to the fourth quarter of last year, we were absolutely not sending out renewals in the fourth quarter of last year, up 4.5%. So as long as we can sign those, that absolutely sets us up for a stronger first quarter of '27 than we saw in '26.

Operator

Next question will come from Austin Wurschmidt with Key Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt

So typically, you would think about building occupancy this time of the year out of the spring leasing season. And Alex, I think you're the one that hit on some of the merchant developers offering outsized concessions today. But between your revenue management systems or even changes to your manual inputs, I guess how much are you willing to let occupancy slide before you would pull back on rate?

Laurie Baker

Well, I would kind of suggest that we saw a softer finish in September. And that reflected our decision to protect leasing velocity and occupancy as we saw traffic slowing at the end of our peak leasing season. Earlier in the quarter, the team, we had deliberately reduced pricing after we saw some of that weakening, and we ended up improving our closing ratio significantly. So we'll continue to evaluate each market, each property so that we can make very selective pricing decisions as it relates to what would move the market.

We're also focusing a lot on, I think Alex mentioned, as you're trying to drive traffic to these properties, you have to advertise in a way that gets people to show up, and we're hearing that in many of our markets where there are a lot of concessions, renters and prospective renters are taking anywhere -- they're looking at anywhere from 7 to 10 properties before they make a decision, and they're making their decisions based on price, all things being equal. So we're going to continue to evaluate how do we gain pricing power. And you do that by improving your occupancy, and where we can improve occupancy and balance those 2, we'll continue to focus on what makes the right sense from a pricing decision.

Alexander Jessett

And the thing about multifamily, you have to remember that we've got perfect price elasticity, meaning we can always get to 100% occupancy or close to it, we just have to drop rents. And so if you look at what we're doing, we're going to have the fourth quarter occupancy is going to be in the low 95s, and that compares to the mid-95s in the third quarter. So that's pretty much about as far as we're willing to let it drop from a third to fourth quarter comparisons.

Operator

Next question will come from Julien Blouin with Goldman Sachs.

Julien Blouin

I was just wondering what you're expecting in terms of market rent growth across your portfolio next year? And I guess, bigger picture, I was wondering, as you prepare your budgets and guidances for '27, do you anticipate changing the approach at all as it sort of relates to blends and same-store revenue guide? Is there a temptation to perhaps guide more conservatively relative to where sort of adviser forecasts spit out rent growth for '27?

Alexander Jessett

Yes. So we're not giving 2027 guidance. Right now, we're in the middle of our budget process, and going through that discovery period of everything that you mentioned there. So when we get to our fourth quarter '26 earnings call, we'll give guidance, we'll be able to update everyone on that. But when you think about -- renewals are always the best thing we can do. And so what we're going to do is we're going to make sure that we don't get too hot on the renewal side because we want to keep those residents. And then we'll let the new leases sort of be what fills in the blanks.

The other thing, when you ask about being more conservative, listen, every -- we hate bringing our numbers down. That is not something any of us ever want to do. But when we come out at the beginning of every single year, what we give you guys is our budgets based upon the economists we use, based upon the analysis that we put in place, we give you guys our budgets. We don't go through and say, okay, our budgets are x, and so we're going to give you guidance of x minus y, as that has never been our approach.

Operator

Next question will come from Alex Kim with Zelman & Associates.

Alex Kim

On last quarter's call, you talked to how you expected blended rent growth to average roughly 1% to slightly better in second half '26. In third quarter, blends came in at 1%. So that was consistent with that outlook. Are you still expecting roughly 1% blended rent growth in the fourth quarter here? How do you reconcile that leasing performance a bit with the 50 basis point reduction in the full year same-store revenue growth guidance?

Alexander Jessett

So you're correct, we came in at 1% on blended rents in third quarter, which is relatively in line with our expectations. However, for the fourth quarter, as part of the guidance bring-down, we are expecting a lower new lease trade-out than we originally anticipated. So we expect those blends to be slightly positive in the fourth quarter, but not to that 1% level.

Operator

Next question is a follow-up from Ami Probandt with UBS.

Ami Probandt

Maybe a question related to the previous question on the Texas election outcome. Do you expect any changes in Florida property taxes following the Amendment 3 passing? And if so, do you think that this is a 2027 impact? Or is it likely more intermediate or longer term?

Alexander Jessett

So as you're referring to Amendment 3 that requires 60% of the vote to pass, I believe it got 62%. We've been keeping an eye on that because what that's going to do is lower the homestead exemption from a staggered perspective and put a significant hole in the property tax revenues from single-family homeowners. So the question becomes where is that going to come from? We are working closely with the Florida Apartment Association and have a relationship with the Governor-elect, Byron Donalds, and we'll be having to have discussions to educate them on what impact that could possibly have to rent affordability in the state, but nothing has been determined on where -- what taxes are going to happen on the commercial real estate side.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Alex Jessett for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Alexander Jessett

Thank you, everybody, for joining us this morning, and we will see you guys in Atlanta. Take care.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.