Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của Aemetis (AMTX): Lợi nhuận ròng 5,2 triệu USD và tăng trưởng 45Z

Điểm nhấn chính

• Aemetis công bố doanh thu quý 3/2026 đạt 88,2 triệu USD, tăng 49% so với mức 59,2 triệu USD trong quý 3/2025, nhờ sự tăng trưởng của mảng Ethanol tại California và Khí tự nhiên tái tạo từ chăn nuôi bò sữa (Dairy RNG), bao gồm cả doanh thu từ tín dụng thuế theo Mục 45Z.
• Lợi nhuận ròng đạt 5,2 triệu USD, tương đương 0,07 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu cơ bản, so với khoản lỗ ròng 23,7 triệu USD cùng kỳ năm trước. EBITDA điều chỉnh được cải thiện lên 24,8 triệu USD từ mức âm 5,0 triệu USD.
• Doanh thu theo Mục 45Z đạt tổng cộng 24,7 triệu USD, bao gồm 20,1 triệu USD từ Khí tự nhiên tái tạo từ chăn nuôi bò sữa và 4,6 triệu USD từ mảng Ethanol tại California. Tổng doanh thu này bao gồm khoản điều chỉnh hồi tố lũy kế 11 triệu USD cho nửa đầu năm 2026.
• Bảy lộ trình thuộc Tiêu chuẩn Nhiên liệu Carbon Thấp California (LCFS) đã được phê duyệt có điểm cường độ carbon trung bình là âm 380. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sáu lộ trình bổ sung sắp được Ban Tài nguyên Không khí California (CARB) phê duyệt.
• Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng dự án tái nén hơi cơ học (MVR) sẽ đóng góp vào kết quả kinh doanh năm 2027, trong đó tác động tài chính lớn hơn có thể diễn ra vào nửa cuối năm sau khi hoàn tất xây dựng và nghiệm thu vận hành.
• Doanh số diesel sinh học tại Ấn Độ đã phục hồi lên 7,3 triệu USD từ mức 2,5 triệu USD trong quý 2/2026 khi các đợt giao hàng được nối lại theo hạn mức phân bổ 17 triệu USD cho công ty con của doanh nghiệp tại Ấn Độ.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Hiệu quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Khí tự nhiên tái tạo từ chăn nuôi bò sữa

Aemetis vận hành 14 bể phân hủy sinh học phục vụ 17 trang trại bò sữa thông qua đường ống dài 36 dặm kết nối với cơ sở sản xuất RNG của công ty và hệ thống khí đốt tiện ích. Hơn 50 trang trại bò sữa đã ký thỏa thuận tham gia. Hai bể phân hủy bổ sung đã hoàn thành vào tháng 10, trong khi các tổ hợp làm sạch và nén khí đã được tiếp nhận cho 13 bể phân hủy tiếp theo theo kế hoạch.

Mỗi MMBtu khí RNG từ bò sữa có thể tạo ra doanh thu từ phân tử khí tự nhiên, tín dụng LCFS, tín dụng D3 RIN của liên bang và tín dụng thuế sản xuất theo Mục 45Z. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết mô hình 45ZCF-GREET cập nhật đã mang lại giá trị tín dụng thuế năm 2026 ước tính khoảng 62 USD trên mỗi MMBtu đối với RNG từ bò sữa trước chiết khấu bán hàng và chi phí giao dịch, so với mức 15,20 USD trên mỗi MMBtu đối với các khoản tín dụng được bán vào tháng 7.

Sản lượng đã vượt mức giả định trước đây của công ty. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sản lượng thực tế đang đạt gần 15 MMBtu trên mỗi đơn vị bò cái tương đương, so với mô hình ban đầu khoảng 13, mặc dù sản lượng giảm theo mùa trong những tháng mát mẻ hơn.

Ethanol tại California

Dự án tái nén hơi cơ học được thiết kế để giảm khoảng 80% lượng khí tự nhiên tiêu thụ của nhà máy Keyes. Ban lãnh đạo ước tính rằng chi phí năng lượng thấp hơn cùng với giá trị LCFS và 45Z cao hơn có thể bổ sung khoảng 32 triệu USD vào dòng tiền hàng năm, tương đương mức biên lợi nhuận tăng thêm khoảng 0,50 USD trên mỗi gallon trên cơ sở quy chuẩn.

Hoạt động xây dựng đã tiến triển qua phần móng và lắp đặt sáu quạt tuabin công suất 3.500 mã lực. Các máy biến áp dự kiến sẽ được chuyển đến trong tháng tiếp theo. Dự án đã nhận được khoảng 19,7 triệu USD tiền tài trợ không hoàn lại và tín dụng thuế theo Mục 48C.

Aemetis cũng đã lắp đặt hai trong ba tổ hợp tách dầu ngô theo kế hoạch. Tổ hợp thứ ba dự kiến bắt đầu hoạt động vào tháng 12. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng ba tổ hợp này sẽ giúp tăng sản lượng dầu ngô lên gần gấp đôi so với mức của quý 1/2026.

Nhiên liệu sinh học tại Ấn Độ

Các đợt giao dầu diesel sinh học cho các công ty kinh doanh dầu mỏ Ấn Độ đã được nối lại trong quý 3/2026. Aemetis cũng đang xin phê duyệt từ phía Ấn Độ và châu Âu để xuất khẩu diesel sinh học sang châu Âu, trong đó ban lãnh đạo dự kiến quy trình phê duyệt sẽ hoàn tất trong quý 4/2026.

Công ty cho biết đơn vị định hướng xuất khẩu của mình sẽ không chịu mức trần xuất khẩu chính thức nào và về mặt lý thuyết có thể xuất khẩu toàn bộ 80 triệu gallon công suất. Các giới hạn thực tế sẽ bao gồm việc nhập khẩu nguyên liệu thô và khâu logistics xuất khẩu diesel sinh học. Aemetis tiếp tục chuẩn bị cho đợt chào bán cổ phiếu ra công chúng tiềm năng đối với lượng cổ phần thiểu số tại Universal Biofuels, tùy thuộc vào điều kiện thị trường.

Triển vọng từ ban lãnh đạo

• Quá trình xây dựng MVR dự kiến hoàn thành vào khoảng cuối quý 1/2027, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo đưa ra khung thời gian rộng hơn là nửa đầu năm 2027 do thời tiết, tính sẵn có của linh kiện và công tác nghiệm thu vận hành có thể ảnh hưởng đến tiến độ.
• Lợi ích từ việc tiết giảm chi phí khí tự nhiên dự kiến bắt đầu ngay sau khi hệ thống MVR vận hành. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng đóng góp tài chính tổng thể lớn hơn sẽ đến vào nửa cuối năm 2027 sau khi nghiệm thu vận hành và ổn định hoạt động.
• Tổ hợp tách dầu ngô thứ ba dự kiến đi vào hoạt động vào tháng 12/2026.
• Trạm tiếp nhiên liệu Dairy RNG của Aemetis dự kiến bắt đầu cung cấp cho các đội xe tải vào tháng 11/2026.
• Sáu lộ trình LCFS bổ sung đang trong quá trình đánh giá của CARB. Các lộ trình được phê duyệt sẽ bao gồm khoản điều chỉnh hồi tố theo thông lệ.
• Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng nhận được các phê duyệt xuất khẩu từ Ấn Độ và EU trong quý 4/2026, sau đó sẽ bán hàng cho các thương nhân tại Singapore và châu Âu thay vì ký hợp đồng bao tiêu dài hạn.
• Việc triển khai 13 hệ thống Dairy RNG tiếp theo phụ thuộc vào việc hoàn tất thu xếp vốn hiện đang được tiến hành.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Tiến độ hoàn thành MVR có thể bị ảnh hưởng bởi nguồn cung thiết bị điện thắt chặt, thời tiết và thời gian cần thiết để nghiệm thu vận hành hệ thống mới.
• Dòng tiền thực thu từ các khoản tín dụng 45Z có thể chậm hơn so với thời điểm ghi nhận doanh thu. Việc cập nhật lộ trình LCFS mới cũng sẽ cần thiết sau khi khởi động MVR, có khả năng làm chuyển thời điểm hiện thực hóa dòng tiền sang các quý sau.
• Sản lượng Dairy RNG mang tính thời vụ do công ty sử dụng các bể phân hủy ở nhiệt độ môi trường, với sản lượng dự kiến thấp hơn trong những tháng mát mẻ hơn.
• Việc mở rộng mạng lưới Dairy RNG phụ thuộc vào việc đảm bảo nguồn vốn tài trợ cho giai đoạn triển khai tiếp theo.
• Thời tiết mùa đông khắc nghiệt có thể làm gián đoạn các chuyến vận chuyển ngô và ethanol bằng đường sắt đến California, dù ban lãnh đạo cho biết các dự báo hiện tại chưa cho thấy rủi ro đường sắt lớn tại vùng Trung Tây.
• Hoạt động xuất khẩu diesel sinh học tại Ấn Độ vẫn phụ thuộc vào sự phê duyệt của chính phủ và các rào cản thực tế trong chuỗi cung ứng.

Điểm nhấn phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Các chuyên gia phân tích tập trung vào tiến độ và hiệu quả kinh tế của dự án MVR. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết hệ thống này sẽ tác động đến kết quả kinh doanh năm 2027, giúp tiết kiệm khí tự nhiên ngay sau khi khởi động nhưng đóng góp tài chính đáng kể hơn sẽ đến vào nửa cuối năm sau giai đoạn nghiệm thu vận hành.

Về việc thương mại hóa tín dụng 45Z, ban lãnh đạo cho biết doanh thu hiện được ghi nhận theo quý khi các khoản tín dụng được tạo ra, dù việc thu tiền mặt có thể diễn ra vào các kỳ sau. Công ty thường đưa ra mức chiết khấu trọn gói khoảng 15% cho người mua, bảo hiểm, môi giới và chi phí pháp lý.

Về biên lợi nhuận ethanol, ban lãnh đạo đã xác định một số động lực tiềm năng: khoảng 0,50 USD mỗi gallon từ hiệu quả kinh tế của MVR, giá tín dụng LCFS cao hơn, sản lượng dầu ngô gia tăng và nhu cầu ethanol bổ sung liên quan đến kế hoạch áp dụng xăng E15 quanh năm của California từ ngày 1/1/2027.

Đối với việc mở rộng Dairy RNG, ban lãnh đạo cho biết thiết bị cho 13 dự án bổ sung đã sẵn sàng, nhưng tốc độ triển khai phụ thuộc vào việc hoàn tất thu xếp vốn. Về mảng Ấn Độ, công ty dự kiến bán diesel sinh học thông qua các thương nhân hiện có và các mối quan hệ trong chuỗi cung ứng thay vì ký hợp đồng bao tiêu dài hạn.

Toàn văn cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Aemetis Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

Joining us on today's call are Eric McAfee, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer; and Andy Foster, President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels.

I will now turn the call over to Todd Waltz.

Todd Waltz

Thank you, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the call, we'll be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. We will also refer to adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure. A reconciliation to the most recently comparable GAAP measure is included in our earnings release.

Before reviewing detail, I want to highlight that the company posted net income of $5.2 million or $0.07 per basic share in the third quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million. For the third quarter of 2026, revenues grew 49% to $88.2 million compared with $59.2 million in the third quarter of 2025, with growth in both the California Ethanol and Dairy Renewable Natural Gas operating segments from both operations and 45Z clean fuel production tax credits.

Section 45Z production tax credit revenue was $24.7 million in the quarter, comprised of $20.1 million from Dairy Renewable Natural Gas and $4.6 million from California Ethanol. 45Z revenue included an $11 million cumulative true-up for the first and second quarter of 2026 from the regulatory updates to the 45ZCF-GREET model. Biodiesel sales in the third quarter were $7.3 million, rebounding from $2.5 million in the second quarter as delivery to three India oil marketing companies resumed under a $17 million allocation to our India subsidiary.

Operating income was $20.9 million in the third quarter, an improvement of $29.4 million compared to the third quarter of 2025, which had an operating loss of $8.5 million. Net income was $5.2 million, equal to $0.07 per basic share, an improvement of $29 million compared to a $23.7 million loss in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $24.8 million in the third quarter, an increase of $29.8 million compared to the negative $5 million in the third quarter of 2025. For the first 9 months of 2026, adjusted EBITDA was $33.2 million compared with negative $21.5 million during the same period of 2025. Cash at quarter end was $3.4 million.

In September, we received $22.4 million from the sale of Section 45Z production tax credits. In August, Aemetis Biogas amended its Series A Preferred Unit Agreement to extend the redemption date to December 31, 2026 and to reduce the interest rate on the credit agreement that would apply if the units are not redeemed to the greater of prime plus 5% or 12%. Capital investments supporting our energy efficiency projects and investments in biogas production were $20.2 million in the third quarter and $35.3 million for the first 9 months of 2026.

With that overview, I'll turn the call over to Eric McAfee.

Eric McAfee

Thanks, Todd. Let's highlight 3 key takeaways from the third quarter. First, Q3 continues the financial inflection points we noted during the Q2 earnings call with the posting of net income of $5.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million during the third quarter. We continue to grow with consolidated revenue up 49% year-over-year, an improvement in operating income of $29.4 million and increased adjusted EBITDA by $29.8 million compared to the third quarter of 2025.

Second, we now generate higher revenues due to the California Air Resources Board approval about a year ago, of 7 new Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways for our renewable natural gas business at an average carbon intensity score of negative 380 compared with the negative 150 default carbon intensity score for these digesters, which was shown in Q2 2025 revenue. The approval of 7 biogas digesters has been providing additional revenue with a higher LCFS value each quarter since Q3 2025, and additional biogas digester pathways are nearing approval. These LCFS pathway approvals substantially expand the LCFS credit generation per MMBtu of RNG produced and will continue to drive meaningful revenue increases as we scale production. And third, our capital projects are advancing with $20.2 million of investment during the quarter.

Let's review these projects and how we continue to create value as federal and state laws are being implemented. In our Dairy Renewable Natural Gas business, every MMBtu of dairy RNG generates 4 revenue streams: the natural gas molecule, a California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit that is sold to oil companies, a Federal D3 RIN that is also sold to oil companies and a Section 45Z production tax credit.

The LCFS credit and the 45Z tax credit are calculated using the carbon intensity of our biofuel. So credits are generated in proportion to how far below the standard a biofuel is scored. An LCFS pathway at negative 380 generates substantially more credit per MMBtu than the negative 150 default score. We have 7 approved California LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 carbon intensity with 6 more pathways nearing approval by CARB.

For the 45Z production tax credit, the Department of Energy issued its updated 45ZCF-GREET model on September 8 of this year, which decreased the carbon intensity scores used to calculate 45Z credits for dairy RNG. The credits we sold in July were valued at $15.20 per MMBtu. The credits we sold in September generated from ethanol and RNG production during 2026, represented a tax credit value of approximately $62 per MMBtu for dairy RNG and $0.33 per gallon of ethanol for 2026 before sales discounts and transaction costs. We received $22.4 million from the September 45Z tax credit sale, and our third quarter results included an approximately $11 million cumulative true-up for RNG dispensed in the first half of the year.

As Dairy Renewable Natural Gas volume grows, all 4 revenue streams grow, but the approval of LCFS pathways in California is expected to create significant increases in revenues from the renewable natural gas production. We operate 14 biogas digesters today, taking waste from 17 dairies and transporting biogas through a 36-mile pipeline to our RNG production facility that is connected to the utility gas pipeline. We have more than 50 dairies that have signed participation agreements. Two new methane capture digesters were completed last month, and we have received 13 additional cleanup and compression units that will be located at the next 13 digesters to come online.

Regarding our California Ethanol business, we have two projects that are slated to significantly improve our financial performance in addition to further improvements in 45Z values and expected increases in LCFS credit prices. Our mechanical vapor recompression system installation is an energy efficiency project that is expected to add approximately $32 million in annual cash flow from 3 positive impacts on our operations. We will reduce about 80% of the natural gas needed for our operations at the Keyes ethanol plant, which is a direct cost reduction that begins at commissioning. Removing fossil natural gas lowers the carbon intensity of our ethanol, which raises the value of the 45Z credit and the LCFS credit generated by every gallon of ethanol.

The MVR project is making excellent progress. Key equipment arrived this summer, and we have completed major steps in construction of the system, including placement of the six 3,500-horsepower turbofans. Foundation concrete has been completed, and electricity transformers are scheduled to arrive in the next month. The MVR project has been awarded approximately $19.7 million in grants and Section 48C tax credits from the California Energy Commission, Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the IRS.

Second, in the past few months, we have installed two of the planned three corn oil separation units at the ethanol plant, with the third unit slated to be operating by the end of this year. Distillers corn oil is recovered from the ethanol process and sold as a low-carbon feedstock into the renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets, where demand has strengthened this year with higher federal renewable volume obligations issued by the federal EPA. Combined, the units are expected to approximately double corn oil production compared to our first quarter production rate, and prices have increased significantly this year.

Our India biofuels business shipped biodiesel to oil marketing companies and commercial customers during Q3 2026. Biodiesel sales rebounded to $7.3 million as we delivered biodiesel to the oil marketing companies under their new tender. We're also building our base of private commercial customers due to increases in the price of India petroleum diesel this year. And we have applied to the India and EU governments for approval to export biodiesel to Europe. India's stated goal is to raise biodiesel blending from less than 1% today to 5% by 2030, which would create about 1.2 billion gallons of additional biodiesel consumption. We continue to prepare documentation for a potential public offering of a minority stake in Universal Biofuels, our subsidiary, subject to market conditions.

Of the milestones we outlined last quarter, the 2 new dairy digesters are now operating, and the Department of Energy has issued the dairy RNG update to the 45ZCF-GREET model. Our outlook on short-term milestones and timing is the third corn oil unit is scheduled to be operational in December, doubling corn oil production over Q1 2026. The Aemetis Dairy RNG fuel station is scheduled to begin RNG deliveries to truck fleets this month.

MVR construction is progressing toward completion. Additional LCFS pathways are moving through CARB with the customary look back on approval, and India deliveries across the current allocation period with a focus on exports to Europe after receiving our government approvals.

Thank you to our shareholders, analysts and our partners for your continued support.

Operator, let's take some questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Amit Dayal from H.C. Wainwright.

Phần hỏi đáp

Amit Dayal

So Eric, congrats on pretty solid results and cash flows this quarter. Just going to the MVR, it looks like all the equipment is in place, the work is underway. The benefits from this, should we expect that to come through in 2027 financials or 2028 financials?

Eric McAfee

For the MVR?

Amit Dayal

Yes.

Eric McAfee

Those are 2027 financials for sure. I mean, we should say for sure. We should say we fully expect delivery in early 2027 as we are completing construction. And the milestones we've stated for the foundations, placing the units, we have extensive construction going on.

Andy, do you want to give us an update?

Andrew Foster

Yes, I would say the system, we're making good progress on construction. As you can imagine, with the demand for materials for data centers, in particular, is creating kind of a crunch on some of the electric components, but I think we're pretty well lined up with that. So our estimate right now is that we'll have the project completed by the end of the first quarter. I say that loosely, we're saying kind of the first half, but who knows Super El Nino and some other things that could play into that. But we're making good progress and expect, hopefully, by March, we'll be completed with construction.

Commissioning will take some time. It's a new system. And so I would say in terms of financial impact, you're probably going to see it more in the second half of next year than you will in the first half of next year because we'll be completing construction, sort of commissioning the system, getting it up and running, and then we'll start to see that impact. The natural gas impact will happen pretty quickly, though, because once we switch over to the MVR system, we won't be drawing down the 3,700 MMBtus that we're currently using daily. So we'll start to see a financial impact almost immediately on the gas side. But as far as getting things lined out, it will probably take a month or 2 to get that system lined out and then be really kind of cranking it by the second half of the year.

Amit Dayal

Understood. And just as a follow-up to that, guys, just for like how -- there was an audit process, et cetera, and there was a little bit of lag between when the credits are being generated versus monetized. Should we expect something similar for MVR to play out as well? Or would that be a little bit different?

Eric McAfee

Our revenue recognition for 45Z revenue is now quarterly. So we would potentially have receivables at the end of the month that are non-monetized 45Zs, which will have a tendency to line up the quarter in which we generate the production, generate 45Z. The cash, however, may be deferred into further later quarters. The initial start-up of 45Z in the first half of 2027 is by necessity going to require us to have a new LCFS pathway update. That will cause us to, as Andy said, push much of the cash into the second half of the year. But we're going to try to accrue revenue as it's generated and for things that are not investment tax credits, it should show up in the quarter in which they're generated.

Amit Dayal

Understood. And just last one, I guess. This India biodiesel to Europe sounds very interesting. How long could this approval process take? And would you be capped at what portion of that capacity can be exported?

Eric McAfee

The approvals are largely in process. We do expect them to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year. And we have not a cap on export. It's called an export-oriented unit. So in theory, we could send our entire 80 million gallons of capacity to foreign shores. We have just practical execution of inbound shipments of feedstock and outbound shipments of biodiesel that will be larger constraints on the amount we ship. But we will have an operational cap.

Amit Dayal

And then as a part of this, can we maybe expect some announcement around an offtaker for this volume?

Eric McAfee

Probably not an offtaker. We've done this before. We used to be the largest biodiesel supplier to Europe from India until Europe changed their rules. Now they've changed their rules again. And so India has again started shipping to Europe. There's roughly half a dozen suppliers that have started this business over the last year or so. And so we are cooperating with existing suppliers. I think this is one of the strengths of the business. It will be importing feedstock together, and we'll be exporting to the same customers in Europe. I do not expect to do it on a long-term offtake arrangement. I think we'll just be doing a supply chain sales to traders out of Singapore and Europe.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Derrick Whitfield from Stifel.

Derrick Whitfield

I wanted to start with ethanol. Arguably, the quarter, while strong, still doesn't reflect the full value of where your ethanol margins could grow over time. With that said, could you provide just a walk-through on where margins currently sit per gallon and where you expect them to be post MVR CO2 use and the benefit of potentially lower CI corn?

Eric McAfee

The MVR is projected to generate about $32 million on a levelized basis annually from decreased cost of natural gas and increased LCFS and 45Z revenue. That comes in at roughly $0.50 a gallon of additional margin, and that is in cash. So that's a significant sustainable competitive advantage that we will have. I believe we're the first installer of MVRs in this cycle. I think ADM might have had one at some point or something, but I think we'll be the first one in the country. And what's unique about our plant is that we're located on the California electricity grid, which has a very diligent commitment to getting to zero carbon intensity.

So as the grid decarbonizes in California using more solar, wind and hydroelectric, that directly will improve our CI score. So tapping into that decarbonized grid is an advantage we have here in California that not all states provide. So the MVR is a uniquely energy-efficient implementation in our particular plant. We also have the impact of E15. We didn't talk about E15 on this call, but California is the first state in the country to adopt year-round E15 at the state level. As you know, California is the only state can set its own fuel rules. And so the Senate Bill 795 recently passed and has implementations slated for January 1, 2027. That will be additional capacity requirements about equal to 10 of our plants.

So somebody across the country has to either build a new plant or expand their existing plants to meet this California capacity requirement. And then nationally, of course, the House has already approved and the Senate is pending approval of E15. We don't have any particular projections on when that would happen. But certainly, the recent political events would support biofuels and rural areas. So we think that E15 has some strength in it. That is our underlying margin. The last time we actually had support for the national demand for ethanol, we made $40 million of positive cash flow. So in the actual molecule, this business should be a $0.50 or more per gallon molecule.

And then lastly is the LCFS credit price, even generating the same number of credits. Last year, we only got $42 per credit. Now we're at $90. The cap is $275 this year. There's a long way to run. And the LCFS credits have continued to be not produced at the rate necessary to meet compliance. So there's a deficit. And there's over 10 million credits that disappeared out of the excess bank over the last 12 months. We expect that to continue, and there should be theoretically no excess inventory of credits within the next 24 months. So we are going to benefit from that. Our revenue goes up even with the same number of gallons. So we have a number of significant drivers.

Last point I want to make is we haven't talked much about corn oil, but corn oil is the most attractive, lowest emission rate feedstock for renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel. It only has a 10 emissions rate. Tallow is 18 to 20, UCO is 20 to 25, soybeans is 30. So the use of distillers corn oil as renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel feedstock should really be a top priority for all those producers, and we are the largest producer to source corn oil in California. And through Andy's team's implementation of 2 of 3, but by the end of this quarter, we'll have 3 operating units separating corn oil. We'll be doubling our corn oil production at a time where the price is roughly doubled. So that's a very promising additional margin for the business. It's, of course, very sustainable.

Derrick Whitfield

Great. And Eric, maybe just touching on the point that you kind of highlighted there on policy. Biofuels generally tends to be supported by both Democrats and Republicans, but given what we've seen with the change, given the Democratic sweep, I mean, are you expecting any changes or anything that might have occurred in California that was a surprise? And anything that you could offer us color as to how you see policy coming together at both the federal and state level would be appreciated.

Eric McAfee

I would say that generally, the rural areas and farmers played an outsized role in this election. And I think we have Democrats now as governors in Iowa and senators from Texas that are Democrats, but that are being voted into play in these rural states, and that's always good for corn and soybeans, which is good for ethanol. Really, the only growth market for corn is E15 ethanol. So the initiative we're looking for, I think, will be supported.

A second factor, and I'll make this very brief, is we're going to have a Congress that really can't get things through the White House and the White House that really can't get things through Congress, which is very, very good for the biofuels business. Stability in policy is just tremendously supportive of our financing efforts, our growth efforts. It is really a wonderful situation we find ourselves where we don't have to worry about Congress coming up with an idea and immediately implementing it. It's probably the opposite of what investors are thinking, but I can tell you, as operators of this business, we are looking forward to the stability in policy, which we should see and supportive policy when it happens.

Derrick Whitfield

And then Eric, one last, if I could. Just on the dairy RNG business. As you look out into next year and the pipeline of farms that you guys have to bring on, what kind of pace would you expect for next year?

Eric McAfee

We have financing in process right now. I think that news is something we'll be reporting here over the next couple of months. And we have 13 long lead time items that we've received very strong support from our vendor to get built. So our ability to deploy those 13 rapidly is certainly in place. We just need the financial closing to accelerate beyond the current pace we have right now.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Dave Storms from Stonegate.

David Storms

I wanted to start maybe with -- when I'm thinking about RNG production, it looks like the last 2 quarters, you were running about 600,000 MMBtus on an annualized basis. I know in the recent release in October, it was also reiterated that the 600,000 should be a good run rate. With the addition again up to the 14, though, how should we be thinking about the out year in terms of MMBtu generation?

Eric McAfee

We have a seasonality directly correlated to the weather. Our technology is a passive solar dairy biogas digester. So the solar component of that means that during the wintertime, there's less solar energy, we don't have as much production. So if you look back over a 6-month span, you're looking back over the summer. And when you analyze from that, yes, 600,000 plus would easily be calculated. I can say, though, that we have performed above expectation.

Andy, do you want to talk about yields and some other things?

Andrew Foster

Yes. So we're -- I mean, I think originally on our models, we had ourselves at about 13 MMBtus per wet cow equivalent, and we're running closer to 15 at this point. So we, I think, run a very efficient operation. And as Eric mentioned, during the summer months, obviously, things crank. Ambient temperature digesters do get impacted seasonally. So as we head into the cooler months, that number probably goes down a little bit. But we have found that our systems are very efficient and our production has exceeded our forecast for the last 2 years. So I would anticipate as we continue to add digesters that, that trend will continue.

David Storms

Understood. That's great commentary. Turning to the 45Z production tax credits. It's mentioned that there's obviously a discount that you receive in the market. With the update to the model, are you starting to see those discounts decrease? Or just maybe any comments you have on the tax credit market, please?

Eric McAfee

Yes. Our observation has been that the production tax credit market has not changed very much. We usually model about a 15% discount all in, including insurance and lawyers and brokers and tax lawyers and more tax lawyers. That's probably more of a discount than we're actually getting, but that's the way we usually model it. And that includes the discount to the buyer.

David Storms

Understood. And then maybe just one more, if I could. Looking out, you mentioned earlier in the call super El Nino. Just any thoughts on the impact that might have on ethanol in the coming 12 to 15 months?

Andrew Foster

It sort of depends on where the weather pattern settles in, but all the forecasts that we've looked at are showing a warmer, drier upper Midwest kind of Plains states, winter. And that's -- generally, when we think about the impact, it's really in transportation, it's in rail, getting the corn to California. If you go back to -- and I don't remember what year it was 2015, somewhere in there, where we had a series of these polar vortexes where the railroads were severely impacted. That's really what we're keeping our eye on.

As far as California goes, we're expecting a lot of rain is what they're saying. Good news is the plant is in an area that doesn't have flooding. So we're equipped to operate the plant in all kinds of conditions. So that's less of a risk for us. I think it's really more around what happens with rail transportation as this system sort of settles in and where it's going to be impacted. Some of the trains do come through the South through Texas. That could be a liability if there's ice storms down there. So at this point, I'd say we're not really worried from the perspective of ongoing operations unless we start seeing major disruption in the rail system in the United States, that could cause some issues.

Eric McAfee

And we happen to have 2 things that come to California that impact our business. Number one is corn. There's 1.7 million dairy cows in California that have to be fed, including corn. So that tends to be a high priority cargo coming to California. In the past, there's been a lot of handwringing and issues, but for some reason, they always seem to get the corn through just the last minute, which is good. The other thing coming to California is ethanol. And with California adopting 15% ethanol, another 600 million gallons, that's coming from California. And a couple of times, the polar vortex has just been this magic moment in which California is very short ethanol and they decide not to bring the ethanol cars through. That's nothing to plan on. It's just something that happens once in a while. And this is -- that would be one of the factors in our business model is does ethanol flow to California at a slower rate because of some track out positions...

Andrew Foster

And I would just add in those scenarios, the railroads tend to prioritize feed over fuel because there's live animals on the other side of it. So if you go back again, when we've had rail disruptions, they typically find a way to prioritize corn because you have whether it's chick poultry or cattle that are being fed and rely upon that, they tend to get prioritization. But again, the way the current weather pattern, at least what we've been looking at is setting up, hopefully, there won't be a big impact from a rail perspective as the Midwest doesn't look to be having a real super cold winter with a lot of precipitation.

Eric McAfee

One other item that I'm sure everybody is looking at is, is corn going to be in short supply and therefore, price increase. The opposite was what the USDA came out with recently, which I think was a bit of a surprise to the market and caused the price of corn to go down quite a bit. So they'll be a little struggling around the idea of is there a lot more corn coming out of South America or even Ukraine or elsewhere than what people expected.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ed Woo from Ascendiant Cap.

Edward Woo

My question is going back to India. You said you guys are preparing still for the IPO, the minority stake due to market conditions. What are the market conditions right now for listings on the India stock market?

Eric McAfee

India stock market has had a tough year. They have had a 5-year run with excellent IPOs. And now they're about to start recovering. The IPO of Jio, the largest cell phone company owned by the family-owned Reliance is sort of a rejuvenation of the India market. One thing that has been resilient in India is retail investors. And the -- it's a socialist country. So 50% of every IPO must be sold to retail, and retail has been very resilient in India. So with the -- what we expect to be, what we plan to be is the start of exports to Europe, that would drive revenues as well as profits out of India operations, and we're excited how that would be lined up in an IPO transaction.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I'll now hand the conference back to Eric McAfee for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Eric McAfee

Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, analysts and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis.

Todd?

Todd Waltz

Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. A written and audio version of this earnings review will be posted to the Investors section of the Aemetis website.

Matthew?

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.