Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3 FY2026 của Molson Coors (TAP): Hạ dự báo khi chi phí gia tăng

Molson Coors Beverage Company (NYSE: TAP) đã báo cáo doanh thu và lợi nhuận quý 3 năm tài chính 2026 sụt giảm, do sản lượng bia suy yếu cùng chi phí nhôm, vận chuyển và nhiên liệu tăng cao đã lấn át tác động tích cực từ giá bán, cơ cấu sản phẩm thuận lợi và các khoản tiết kiệm chi phí. Ban lãnh đạo công ty đã hạ dự báo cho cả năm tài chính 2026 đối với doanh thu thuần, lợi nhuận trước thuế cơ bản, EPS cơ bản và dòng tiền tự do cơ bản.

Những điểm chính

• Doanh thu thuần quý 3 giảm 1,2% so với cùng kỳ năm trước xuống còn 2,9 tỷ USD. Lợi nhuận trước thuế cơ bản giảm 17,4% xuống 349 triệu USD, trong khi EPS cơ bản giảm 12,6% xuống 1,46 USD.
• Giá vốn hàng bán (COGS) cơ bản trên mỗi hectoliter tăng 8,1%. Chi phí Midwest premium tăng thêm khoảng 50 triệu USD so với cùng kỳ năm trước và chiếm khoảng 40% mức sụt giảm lợi nhuận trong quý.
• Molson Coors ước tính toàn ngành bia Mỹ đã thu hẹp hơn 4%. Xu hướng thị phần theo sản lượng tại Mỹ của công ty đã cải thiện gần 20 điểm cơ bản so với quý 2, dù sản lượng tài chính giảm 3% và sản lượng thương hiệu giảm 4,9%.
• Ban lãnh đạo hiện dự kiến doanh thu thuần năm 2026 sẽ giảm từ 1% đến 2%, lợi nhuận trước thuế cơ bản giảm từ 21% đến 24% và EPS cơ bản giảm từ 16% đến 19%.
• Công ty đã hạ dự báo dòng tiền tự do cơ bản từ mức 1,1 tỷ USD (biên độ dao động cộng trừ 10%) xuống còn 1 tỷ USD (biên độ dao động cộng trừ 10%).
• Ban lãnh đạo dự báo một số áp lực từ chi phí hàng hóa, cước vận chuyển và nhiên liệu sẽ tiếp diễn sang năm 2027. Dự báo chính thức cho năm 2027 dự kiến sẽ được công bố trong cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh quý 4.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Từ đầu năm đến nay, Molson Coors đã hoàn trả 273 triệu USD cho cổ đông thông qua cổ tức và 250 triệu USD thông qua mua lại cổ phiếu. Kể từ khi công bố kế hoạch mua lại vào tháng 10 năm 2023, công ty đã mua lại 16% số cổ phiếu phổ thông loại B đang lưu hành. Hạn mức mua lại còn lại là 2,3 tỷ USD.

Hiệu quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Xu hướng thị phần tại Mỹ cải thiện, nhưng sản lượng vẫn chịu áp lực

Coors Light và Miller Lite là những thương hiệu đóng góp lớn nhất vào sự cải thiện xu hướng thị phần tại Mỹ từ quý 2 sang quý 3. Ba trong số bốn khu vực của công ty tại Mỹ ghi nhận xu hướng thị phần khởi sắc hơn trong quý, nhờ các khoản đầu tư có mục tiêu theo từng địa phương thuộc chiến lược Horizon 2030.

Coors Banquet ghi nhận quý thứ 21 liên tiếp tăng trưởng thị phần theo sản lượng và tiếp tục nằm trong top 5 thương hiệu bia hàng đầu tại Mỹ về mức tăng trưởng này. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ tiếp tục đầu tư cho Banquet, triển khai định hướng sáng tạo mới cho Coors Light và ra mắt Coors 00 trên quy mô toàn quốc.

Các thương hiệu bình dân cũng đang trở thành ưu tiên chiến lược lớn hơn khi người tiêu dùng chịu áp lực về khả năng chi trả. Sản lượng Miller High Life đã tăng 9% tại Mexico trong quý 3, nơi ban lãnh đạo cho biết thương hiệu này nằm trong top 5 thương hiệu bia tăng thị phần mạnh nhất và được bán ở phân khúc giá trên cao cấp.

Danh mục sản phẩm trên cao cấp và mở rộng ngoài bia (Beyond Beer)

Peroni tiếp tục gia tăng sức hút đối với người tiêu dùng, trong khi Blue Moon vẫn là yếu tố kìm hãm hiệu quả hoạt động của phân khúc trên cao cấp do quy mô của thương hiệu này. Ban lãnh đạo đang tái định vị Blue Moon từ nguồn gốc bia thủ công sang một sản phẩm cao cấp hiện đại hơn.

Fever-Tree hưởng lợi từ các hỗ trợ thương mại và kênh phân phối bổ sung. Monaco đạt kết quả vượt kỳ vọng ban đầu của công ty và ghi nhận doanh thu thuần theo quý cao nhất trong lịch sử thương hiệu. Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh sự hiện diện của Monaco tại các cửa hàng tiện lợi và định dạng đóng gói dùng một lần là minh chứng cho thấy người tiêu dùng vẫn sẵn sàng chi trả cho một giá trị định vị khác biệt.

Cạnh tranh tại Anh và sự suy yếu của người tiêu dùng

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết áp lực ngành hàng và sự suy yếu trong chi tiêu của người tiêu dùng tại Anh đã gia tăng trong năm 2026, cùng với các hoạt động khuyến mại ở mức cao. Molson Coors đã giới thiệu Carling Black Label vào đầu năm và triển khai đợt làm mới thương hiệu Carling lớn nhất trong hơn 30 năm vào tháng 10.

Công ty cho biết các hành động thương mại đã cải thiện vị thế cạnh tranh trong quý 3, nhưng tháng 11 và tháng 12 vẫn là những tháng quan trọng và tiềm ẩn nhiều biến động đối với hoạt động kinh doanh tại khu vực EMEA và APAC.

Áp lực chi phí và năng suất

Chi phí nhôm và chi phí Midwest premium cao hơn, công suất vận tải thắt chặt và giá nhiên liệu tăng đã khiến giá vốn hàng bán (COGS) cơ bản trên mỗi hectoliter tăng 8,1%. Bất chấp các hợp đồng vận tải dài hạn, công ty vẫn phải huy động thêm một số năng lực hậu cần trên thị trường giao ngay với chi phí đắt đỏ hơn.

Molson Coors tiếp tục đẩy mạnh chương trình tiết kiệm chi phí trị giá 450 triệu USD. Tuy nhiên, ban lãnh đạo cho biết áp lực lạm phát gia tăng đủ lớn để lấn át lợi ích từ các biện pháp này. Công ty cũng đang đầu tư vào tính linh hoạt của chuỗi cung ứng, đa dạng hóa nguồn cung và đẩy mạnh tích hợp theo chiều dọc đối với nguồn cung vỏ lon, dù các sáng kiến này đòi hỏi lộ trình kéo dài nhiều năm.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Mọi thay đổi trong dự báo doanh thu và lợi nhuận trước thuế cơ bản đều dựa trên cơ sở tỷ giá không đổi. Triển vọng điều chỉnh này giả định xu hướng sản lượng toàn ngành tiếp tục ảm đạm tại Mỹ và EMEA/APAC, cùng áp lực khuyến mại dai dẳng tại Anh trong phần còn lại của năm 2026.

Ban lãnh đạo tiếp tục dự kiến mức tăng giá ròng hàng năm tại Bắc Mỹ sẽ đạt từ 1% đến 2% và chín tháng đóng góp doanh thu thuần từ Monaco. Công ty cũng kỳ vọng xu hướng sản lượng tài chính và sản lượng thương hiệu tại Mỹ sẽ cơ bản tiệm cận nhau vào cuối năm khi thời điểm giao hàng bình thường hóa trở lại.

Trong cả năm, chi phí Midwest premium dự kiến sẽ vượt mức của năm trước khoảng 113 triệu USD. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết mức tăng này tác động khoảng 10 điểm phần trăm đến lợi nhuận trước thuế cơ bản và làm giảm hơn 0,50 USD vào EPS cơ bản tại mức trung vị của dự báo cập nhật.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến chi phí hàng hóa và vận chuyển vẫn sẽ neo ở mức cao trong ngắn hạn, với một số áp lực lạm phát kéo dài sang năm 2027.
• Rủi ro từ chi phí Midwest premium chưa được phòng ngừa hoàn toàn do ban lãnh đạo đánh giá công cụ này rất khó và tốn kém để phòng ngừa rủi ro, dù công ty đã có một số biện pháp bảo đảm cho năm 2027.
• Sự suy yếu liên tục của ngành hàng tại Mỹ và Canada, áp lực khả năng chi trả của người tiêu dùng và các chương trình khuyến mại cạnh tranh gay gắt tại Anh có thể gây áp lực lên sản lượng.
• Các thương hiệu cốt lõi của công ty tại Mỹ đã cải thiện xu hướng thị phần nhưng vẫn chưa ổn định hoặc quay trở lại quỹ đạo tăng trưởng thị phần.
• Một số chủ sở hữu thương hiệu đang tìm cách chấm dứt thỏa thuận phân phối với Coors Distributing Company, nhà phân phối tại Colorado do Molson Coors sở hữu toàn bộ. Công ty dự kiến điều này sẽ không tác động trọng yếu đến năm tài chính 2026, trong khi bất kỳ ảnh hưởng nào trong năm 2027 sẽ phụ thuộc vào kết quả của các thủ tục pháp lý.

Những điểm chính trong phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Các chuyên gia phân tích tập trung vào tốc độ tăng trưởng khi bước vào cuối quý 4 yếu hơn, liệu Horizon 2030 có thể mang lại kết quả khác biệt so với các chương trình tiết giảm chi phí trước đây hay không, mức độ rủi ro lạm phát, việc tinh gọn danh mục đầu tư và tiềm năng định giá năm 2027.

Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng biên độ dự báo rộng cho kết quả quý 4 là do sự suy yếu của ngành hàng tại Mỹ, tầm quan trọng của mùa lễ hội đối với khu vực EMEA/APAC, tình trạng lạm phát chi phí vận chuyển và nhiên liệu vẫn tiếp diễn, cùng với thời điểm giao hàng. Công ty nhấn mạnh rằng dự báo chính thức cho năm 2027 sẽ được công bố vào tháng 2.

Khi được hỏi tại sao kế hoạch chuyển đổi hiện tại có thể vượt trội hơn các chương trình cắt giảm chi phí và tái đầu tư trước đây, ban lãnh đạo chỉ ra mô hình hoạt động mang tính địa phương hóa cao hơn, định vị thương hiệu rõ ràng hơn và hoạt động đầu tư dựa trên các dịp tiêu dùng cụ thể. Công ty cho biết Horizon 2030 hướng đến việc thay đổi cả phân bổ danh mục lẫn khâu thực thi, thay vì chỉ dựa vào việc gia tăng chi tiêu cho thương hiệu.

Về quản lý danh mục đầu tư, Molson Coors cho biết công ty đã đóng cửa hoặc công bố kế hoạch đóng cửa các nhà máy bia nhỏ hơn và sẽ tiếp tục thoái vốn khỏi các thương hiệu hoặc cơ sở hạ tầng không còn tiềm năng mở rộng quy mô. Đồng thời, ban lãnh đạo nhìn thấy cơ hội tận dụng năng lực sản xuất, phân phối và bán lẻ để mở rộng các thương hiệu đã có vị thế vững chắc như Monaco và Fever-Tree, trong khi vẫn duy trì kỷ luật đối với các thương vụ mua lại.

Về chính sách giá, ban lãnh đạo cho biết đang cân đối giữa việc bù đắp lạm phát với các điều kiện cạnh tranh. Các quyết định cho năm 2027 sẽ được đưa ra theo từng thị trường và thương hiệu, trong khi cơ cấu sản phẩm cải thiện hơn từ các thương hiệu có NSR cao hơn như Monaco và Fever-Tree dự kiến sẽ mang lại sự linh hoạt bổ sung.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call. And now I'll turn it over to Barb Noverini, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Barbara Noverini

Thank you, operator. Our earnings release and presentation materials are available on the Investor Relations section of our website. Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws. Please refer to our earnings release and our most recent SEC filings for important information regarding these statements including risk factors as well as definitions of and reconciliations to any non-GAAP measures. Actual results may differ materially from our expectations, and we undertake no obligation to update forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law. Today, we'll focus our prepared remarks on our performance and outlook before opening the line for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Unless otherwise indicated, all financial results are comparable prior year period and are in U.S. dollars. With the exception of earnings per share, all financial metrics are in constant currency, when referencing percentage changes from the prior year period. Also, share data references are sourced from Sircana in the U.S. unless otherwise indicated.

Our remarks today will also reference underlying pretax income, which equates to underlying income before income taxes and underlying earnings per share which equates to underlying diluted earnings per share as defined in our earnings release.

And with that, I will hand it over to Rahul.

Rahul Goyal

Thank you Barb, and good morning, everyone. Since launching Horizon 2030 earlier this year, we've been laying important groundwork for long-term success. We are building the portfolio, the capabilities, the routines and the operating discipline to perform more consistently across the business. We've taken decisive actions intended to strengthen our share trend, accelerate our portfolio transformation, simplify our cost structure and return cash to shareholders. In the U.S. core beer share trend improved from Q2 levels as share losses narrowed.

We're seeing growth emerge across several important parts of the portfolio where we have been intentional in our activation and investments. And we're seeing encouraging signs that our new operational approach is helping us compete more effectively across our regions. Our strategy is only in its first year, and these signs give us confidence that it's working well even as the operating environment remains challenging. Through the first half of this year, U.S. industry trends were tracking better than 2025, and our own performance has largely been tracking in line with our previously announced 2026 guidance range.

However, some external headwinds intensified as we moved into the third quarter, and we are continuing to experience category softness in the U.S. increased promotional activity in the U.K. and elevated freight and fuel costs in the U.S. As a result, we are lowering our full year 2026 guidance ranges for MSR, underlying pretax income, underlying EPS and underlying free cash flow. We do expect some of these headwinds to persist into 2027, but our team has been taking actions to reduce their impact.

In addition, Midwest premium costs have significantly impacted our margins. and have remained at levels that we ultimately do not view as sustainable. In a moment, Tracey will detail the drivers of our guidance revisions. But let me reiterate that we are controlling the controllables. And the changes we've already made with Horizon 2030 are beginning to pay off. Here is what matters most. Our strategy is driving results across the business as we navigate persistent industry headwinds.

Our U.S. share trend is moving in the right direction. -- our fastest-growing brands achieving greater scale. We're positioning our portfolio towards areas where the category is growing. We're continuing to invest in our brands to drive volume growth. and we're investing in capabilities to help insulate us from external forces that are outside our control. In the first year of our 5-year strategy, the signals are there. With continued focus and execution, we believe these signals will amplify. While the road ahead may not always be linear, our objective is straightforward. Evolving the business to win more occasions with more consumers of all income levels. And we are also realistic about the work in front of us. So let's get into it.

I'll start with Coors Beer -- in the U.S., Coors Light and Miller Lite were our biggest drivers of share trend improvement from Q2 to Q3, getting these brands back on a strong Gator remains 1 of our highest priorities. While we've seen progress, we're not satisfied with simply narrowing share losses. Our goal is to stabilize these brands and return them to share growth. That's why local execution is such an important part of Horizon 2030.

As I've said before, beer is local. -- consumers in Texas, Wisconsin and New York aren't buying the same year for the same reasons. Just look at what is happening in Wisconsin. I do want to take a moment to congratulate the Milwaukee Brewers on last week's World Series win. The excitement in Milwaukee has been undeniable. And Miller light is proud to be the official beer of the brewers. We've also made the most of this time with strong marketing like giving away cans of Miller light that were brewed the exact moment the brewers won the title. It's a great example of how local relevance creates opportunities to connect consumers to our brands.

Moments like these reinforce while local execution matters. So under Horizon 2030, we're deploying data-driven investments in the U.S. by region. A good example of this approach comes from our South Central region, where stronger alignment between our local teams, distributors and targeted investments contributed to a meaningful improvement in share trends from Q2 to Q3. Second best, share trend improvement from Q2 came from the Great Lakes region, where targeted investment behind Miller Lite defended our competitive position in the market.

With 3 of our 4 U.S. regions showing improved share trends in the third quarter were encouraged that Horizon 2030's focus on local execution is driving results. In the U.S., Coors Live demonstrated the strongest improvement in share trend across our portfolio in Q3 as it continued to narrow its year-over-year share loss. Banquet delivered its 21st consecutive quarter of volume share growth in Q3 and remained a top 5 U.S. beer brand for volume share growth.

Looking ahead, we plan to build on this momentum through a new creative direction for Coors Light, continued investment behind Banquet and the national launch of Coors 00. Moving to the U.K. category pressure and consumer weakness have intensified throughout the year. So we're investing behind the Carling brand to improve its relevance with today's consumer. Earlier this year, we introduced Carling Black Label, our first new premium large launch for this brand family in over a decade. More recently in October, we launched the most significant brand refresh for calling in over 30 years. The brand's bold new look keeps the heritage that drinkers love while capturing the attention of a new generation.

These are exactly the types of investment in co-brands that Horizon 2030 is designed to support, which is also true for how we are approaching our value brands. In under Horizon 2030, value has moved from a supporting role to a strategic priority, especially as consumers feel more macroeconomic pressure. So we are leaning into more commercial support for Miller High Life and Easton Light in the Americas. Today, I want to focus on MillaHighLife. This brand is a gem in our portfolio. And if you think about it, MillaHighLife possesses many of the same qualities that have fueled the success of a brand like Banquet. It has a rich heritage, great packaging and a level of authenticity that cannot be manufactured. It's the champagne of beers after all.

So we're focused on making high life relevant to a new generation of consumers. -- through local activation and retail programs we're showing how the highlight isn't just for special occasions, it's about elevating everyday moments. We're also capitalizing on momentum outside of the U.S., like in Mexico, where High Life ranks in the top 5 of beer brands growing share. In Q3, it's contributing to driving 9% brand volume growth in Mexico and cells at an above premium price point. So while we remain early in our efforts, we believe that our refocused value portfolio has clear potential, and we plan to support our priority brands accordingly.

Turning to above premium. Peroni continues to perform well and remains a strong proof point supporting our premiumization strategy as it continues to gain relevance with consumers. Given its scale Blue Moon softness also continues to have an outsized impact on our performance in the above-premium category, which is why improving the brand's trajectory remains a priority. We are focused on repositioning the brand away from its craft beer routes and into a more modern premium space, which you'll soon begin to see in our marketing and our approach at retail.

Outside North America, we're continuing to see that innovation can be an effective lever in a highly competitive environment. For example, in the U.K. Madrid Lamon has performed well by aligning with regional taste preferences, reinforcing our view that successful innovation starts with local market insights.

Turning to Beyond Beer. Our portfolio today is stronger and more diversified than it was a year ago, and we're seeing that reflected in the performance of Beyond Beer brands like Fevertree and Monaco. FeverTree continues to benefit from increased commercial support and distribution just in time for peak cocktail season, and we're confident in the groundwork we've laid for the upcoming holidays. We're also pleased with the performance of Monaco, which continues to track ahead of our initial expectations. The third quarter of 2026 marked the highest NSR quarter in the brand's history. Monaco is a strong addition to our business and our distributors' businesses and its success shows that we can add mix enhancing growth in a pressured consumer environment. Monaco strength in convenience stores and single-serve cans also shows that consumers are still willing to pay for brands that deliver the right value proposition.

Beyond our portfolio, we are focused on strengthening our capabilities to help support future performance. This includes the launch of projects aimed at fortifying our supply chain and diversifying our source of critical materials including aluminum cans. Both efforts are meant to enhance flexibility and gain greater control over sourcing operations. We have also reinvested in vertical integration to control more of our own can supply. These initiatives have multiyear time lines, but they are essential to building a stronger, more cost competitive company over time.

As we look ahead, we believe these capabilities will help us get ahead of changing consumer and market conditions. Throughout this year, we've continued to make solid progress against our $450 million cost savings program. Those actions have helped offset a portion of the inflationary pressure we've seen across commodities, freight and other input costs. As we move through the year, however, the magnitude of the inflationary headwinds increased to a level that began to outweigh the benefits of our cost actions. We cannot cost cut our way to sustainable growth. Our cost savings program is strengthening the resilience of our business as it was designed to do, delivering stronger long-term performance will require both stronger commercial execution to support top line growth and continued discipline in managing our cost structure.

Ultimately, the actions we've taken this year are intended to preserve flexibility as we execute our strategy, continuing investing in the business and build a stronger company that is positioned to create long-term value. Our capital allocation priorities also remain unchanged. We will continue supporting the opportunities that strengthen our portfolio and improve our competitive position while returning cash to shareholders through our dividend and share repurchases. Our cash generation and balance sheet gives us choices. And we will remain disciplined in how we deploy capital.

All that being said, we recognize that the work we started with Horizon 2030 is far from finished. But the actions we've taken this year demonstrate our ability to move the organization in the right direction. We can also say many things today that simply were not true a few years ago. We have the balance sheet and the financial flexibility to invest where it matters. For the first time, we are planning for the future with a new approach that fundamentally changes both how we allocate dollars and how we safeguard our business against macroeconomic forces.

With that, I'll turn it over to Tracey to discuss our financial performance and provide the details of our outlook.

Tracey Joubert

Thank you, Rahul. In the third quarter, our results reflected a more challenging category and cost environment than we anticipated at the start of the year, while pricing mix and cost savings actions continue to support our plan. industry softness, freight tightening and commodity-driven input cost pressures intensified as the year progressed. We expect these factors to persist in the near term. With that context in mind, let's review our 3 key metrics.

For Q3, on a year-over-year basis, consolidated net sales revenue of $2.9 billion declined 1.2%. Underlying pretax income of $349 million was down 17.4% and underlying earnings per share of $1.46 decreased 12.6%. Let's first walk through the drivers of the quarter, which will help frame our revised guidance for fiscal 2026. Starting with the top line. Lower financial volumes in the Americas and the U.K. were partially offset by positive net pricing in the Americas and favorable sales mix. The U.S. beer industry declined more than 4% based on our internal estimates. Our U.S. volume share trend improved by almost 20 basis points from Q2 2026. Financial volumes declined by 3%, while brand volumes declined by 4.9%.

Net pricing and positive sales mix drove positive 2% NSR per hectoliter growth in the Americas with favorable mix mainly driven by Monico. EMEA delivered a positive 1.1% in [indiscernible] growth in the quarter, mainly driven by favorable sales mix, while the promotional environment in the U.K. remained competitive.

Turning to profitability. Underlying COGS per hectoliter increased 8.1%, mainly driven by continued higher Midwest premium and aluminum costs, freight market tightening and fuel prices. The Midwest premium alone drove approximately $50 million of year-on-year cost increase in the third quarter, representing roughly 40% of the year-over-year profit decline. As expected, MG&A was down 7.4%, largely due to targeted cost reductions in marketing and cost savings initiatives, offset by higher technology expenses.

Turning to our balance sheet. Our net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio was 2.53x at the end of the quarter, modestly rather below 2.5x target. Over the last several years, we've worked deliberately to strengthen the balance sheet and improve our financial flexibility. That work is particularly important in an environment like this. While we expect commodity and freight costs to remain elevated in the near term, our balance sheet remains strong, which we believe gives us capacity to manage near-term volatility while continuing to invest behind our long-term priorities. That flexibility is also reflected in our capital allocation approach.

We continue to prioritize investments that will strengthen the long-term performance of our business, while also returning capital to shareholders through a durable dividend and our share repurchase program. We continue to generate strong cash flow. And year-to-date, we have returned to shareholders $273 million through dividends and $250 million through share repurchases. Since the plan was announced in October 2023, we have repurchased 16% of our Class B shares outstanding, and we have $2.3 billion remaining under our authorization.

With that, let's discuss the drivers of our updated 2026 guidance. We now expect net sales revenue to decline minus 1% to minus 2% on a constant currency basis versus our previously guided range of flat plus or minus 1%. While the U.S. industry continues to track modestly better than 2025 on a year-to-date basis, that improvement largely reflects the stronger start to the year.

More recent trends have been softer. Our revised top line guidance assumes that soft industry volume trends in both the U.S. and EMEA APAC and promotional pressure in the U.K. will persist through the remainder of 2026. We continue to expect an annual net price increase of 1% to 2% in North America, in line with the average historical range, and our assumptions for 9 months of NSR contribution from Monaco remain unchanged.

Year-to-date, we've seen quarterly variability in financial versus brand volume trends that has mainly been driven by shipment timing. We still anticipate the convergence of financial volumes toward brand volumes in the balance of the year on the assumption that U.S. financial and brand volume trends will largely align.

Moving down the P&L. We now expect underlying pretax income to decline minus 21% to minus 24%, which equates to approximately $80 million at the midpoint on a constant currency basis as compared to our previously guided range of minus 15% to minus 18%. As Rah mentioned earlier, we're expecting lower profitability for the balance of the year than our year-to-date performance will imply. This is largely due to the impact of higher commodity and logistics costs.

For the full year, we continue to expect Midwest premium costs to exceed the prior year by approximately $113 million. To put that into perspective, the year-over-year increase in this surcharge loan equates to roughly 10 percentage points of underlying pretax income impact or more than $0.50 of underlying earnings per share at the midpoint of our 2026 guidance. We now expect underlying earnings per share to decline minus 16% to minus 19% as compared to our previously guided range of minus 11% to minus 15%. We have also updated our underlying free cash flow guidance range to $1 billion, plus or minus 10% versus our previously guided range of $1.1 billion, plus or minus 10%. This was mainly driven by the reduction in our previously guided underlying pretax income range. All other guidance drivers remain unchanged.

Looking ahead, we currently expect several of these inflationary pressures to continue into 2027. On the Midwest premium specifically, we do have hedge coverage in place for 2027. However, as we have previously discussed, the Midwest premium remains difficult and expensive to hedge, and our exposure is never fully hedged. We expect market conditions for commodities to remain dynamic into 2027. On the productivity side, the previously announced restructuring actions in EMEA are now producing benefits that will extend into 2027 and beyond.

Separately, certain brand owners have sought to terminate their distribution agreements with Coors Distributing Company, our wholly owned distribution Colorado. CDC is pursuing legal actions to enforce its right under those agreements. We don't expect this to have a material impact on our fiscal 2026 results and the impact on 2027 will depend on the outcome of these legal actions. We will provide an update as the situation develops. We'll provide our formal 2027 outlook on our fourth quarter call as is normal practice.

In the meantime, we remain focused on the factors within our control: productivity, disciplined revenue management investing in our brands and prudent capital allocation. We recognize that any individual year 2026 included can be significantly affected by the external cost and category environment. That does not change our commitment to our growth objectives or the actions we are taking to strengthen the business, and we remain committed to our medium-term growth objectives.

In closing, this has been a challenging operating environment. But at the same time, we are seeing tangible benefits from our actions. We continue to benefit from a portfolio of enduring brands a productivity program that creates both savings and reinvestment capacity and a disciplined capital allocation approach. Together, we believe these attributes give us the financial resilience and flexibility to navigate near-term pressures while continuing to invest in the long-term evolution of the business.

With that, we will take your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Peter Grom with UBS.

Phần hỏi đáp

Peter Grom

Great. I hope you're doing well. So the updated guidance implies a relatively wide range of outcomes for the fourth quarter on the bottom line, a pretty challenging exit rate. So maybe could you walk through kind of the puts and takes out for you the high end versus the low end. But maybe related, I would love to understand how we should be thinking about this exit rate as we begin to kind of adjust our models for '27.

Maybe just some guardrails in terms of what we know today. And I asked is just in the context, it doesn't seem like category trends are improving. It sounds like Tracey to your point, inflation is volatile and persist. So trying to think about how you manage these headwinds or balancing these headwinds versus setting up the business for better performance over the longer term?

Rahul Goyal

Peter. Thanks for the question. So let me help break down your first part of the question, which is around the guidance, the wide range, et cetera, and then we can talk a little bit about '27. So the 4 pieces maybe I call out is let's talk about the top line first. So you talked about the category challenges in the U.S. or the performance of the category. I think that definitely we're seeing that and expecting that to continue for the balance of the -- if you look at our share trends, we are making good progress and improving our share trends every quarter, but we know we have more work to do there. And then the last piece on the top line I call out is our EMEA APAC business.

The first H1 of this year has been challenging, and the team's done a good job of putting all the right commercial pressure now and you're seeing the progress in Q3, but Q4 is a big quarter for EMEA APAC in November, December with Christmas is a big quarter. So those are the big drivers, I would say, for the top line. The added piece on the bottom line is the pressure on commodities, predominantly freight and fuel. If you think about this year coming in, we understood the pressures on aluminum, mid best premium. We have all the right actions, whether it's around the hedging, around the cost savings initiatives but we do see that playing out for the balance of the year in terms of the inflationary pressures.

There are a couple of other elements in terms of just timing, shipment timing and financial volume and brand volume. But all of that will get caught up by the end of the year. And then there is a little bit on timing in terms of G&A. So hopefully, that gives you a sense on just Q4 timing and the range, just given the volatility and some variables as [Technical Difficulty] Peter, the way I will say is, obviously, we'll give got business. But it goes back to what the core foundations of Horizon 2030, the category has been volatile look this year between Q1 and -- what's important for us to make sure our portfolio is leading in different parts of the category getting stronger, given where consumers are feeling pressure. We're making good progress on above premium and beyond beer.

Progress we've made this year in terms of transforming the cost inflation and the rate levels probably today [Technical Difficulty]

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we are currently experiencing technical difficulties. Please stand by as we resolve the issue.

Thank you for your patience. We will now continue the call. Management team. Please begin when you're ready.

Ladies and gentlemen, we are currently experiencing technical difficulties. Please stand by as we resolve the issue.

Thank you for your patience. We will now continue the call. Management team. Please begin when you're ready.

Rahul Goyal

Thank you, Jen. Peter, are you still with us? Okay. Thank you, Peter. I know we talk a lot about resilience. So I guess we saw some resilience for 7 minutes. So thank you, everybody, for hanging in there. Peter, I don't know where we got dropped off, but maybe just address your question. Your question was around the wide range, Q4 guidance and how do we think about it going into '27. So I'd call out a couple of things as we think about our business.

If you look at our year-to-date performance, we've been managing our business very carefully and executing to the guidance we laid out as we look at closing out this year. On the top line, maybe just 2 things to call out. One is our EMEA APAC business, right? -- strong progress in Q3, but Q4 is a big quarter for EMEA, APAC, and we do see that volatility continue into Q4, especially given November, December being such big months for that business.

In the U.S., the category challenges in Q3 was pretty similar to Q2, but we do see that playing out in Q4. Now the good part is our share trends continue to get better. we're not where we are not where we want to be in terms of growth of our core brands, but the trends do get better. So I would call those 3 big factors as we look at our top line and then obviously implicated on the bottom line, -- and the other main piece on the bottom line is that the cost inflation side. We've taken a number of steps in mitigating the cost inflation throughout the year, around aluminum, Midwest premium.

But the freight and fuel landscape is what into Q4, we think will continue. So those are the drivers in terms of, I would say, Q4. Now there's some things around timing. -- with financial volumes and brand volumes and shipments. But those will get caught up by the end of the year. But hopefully, that gives you a sense of the guidance and the drivers for the balance of the year.

Your question about 2027, we obviously will share more and give guidance in February. But I go back to what we're working on as a total business, right? On the Horizon 2030 is, one, we want to make sure we transform our portfolio and really move into above premium and beyond beer, and we're making progress on there. On the Coors brands, we want to make sure they are healthy, right, strong and resilient. And a we made progress. We have more work definitely there, and I think we've been pretty transparent on that. And then the cost savings initiatives the volatility in our -- in the inflationary landscape will continue, but we're going to lean in from a cost savings perspective.

So -- more to come as we lay out '27 guidance, but hopefully, that gives you a perspective of how we're thinking about our business going into next year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

Kaumil Gajrawala

I guess a couple of things on -- obviously, we all are aware of what's happening with input cost and stuff, and we're hearing so much about cost savings and cost savings. But -- the company over the years has had several of these plans, $500 million, $600 million over 5 years, and I think you've maybe done that 3 or 4 times with another 1 pending. All of those had the intention of reinvestment back into the brands in order to change the top line trajectory. And it hasn't really worked so far.

So why would this time be different from what we've had before, which were cost savings that are intended to drive top line from reinvestment.

Rahul Goyal

Thank you for that question. And I completely understand the background in context. So here's how I would break it down, Kaumil, there's an element of cost and there's an element of that investment, right, making sure you have the right dollars. But you understand the category and the, call it, just the different elements of the category. So for us, -- there's 2 parts to this. One, making sure we have the right portfolio. But then 2 is how we are executing our plan around this. right?

This -- I talk a lot about beer being local. I talk about executing at a granular level, making sure we're very clear where we understand our consumers and customers. So 1 is about making sure we have the capacity and the dollars to do it, but then it is about how we're using those dollars to execute. And I'll leave you with 3 main things, right? One, we have to stay closer to our consumers in the context of occasions. Occasions are what is driving and you see that even with our portfolio for brands like Banquet you would look at that and we can all question, why is it growing? But occasions matter, Two, what matters is clarity of brand positioning?

What is these brands stand for. And I think we are definitely leaning a lot more into that. You're seeing that with OstiBanquet, Peroni, FiverTree, Monaco, even with Coors Light, and some of our value portfolios, value portfolio. And then the third part is -- I would call out is our differentiated approach on making sure we're looking at our markets in a very local way. And that's not just about investment. It is about making sure we're using the right tactics, making sure we have the right resources and people. I know I highlighted in some of my comments about some of the actions we're taking differently in each of our different regions.

So -- if you think about our plan, Horizon 2030, it is not just about getting 1 brand and driving it, but it is taking our total portfolio but how we change our operating model is equally and as important in Horizon 2030. So our goal is to continue to make sure we drive that investment in our business throughout the balance sheet and P&L. But how we operate, right? I've talked a lot about local accountability, but that operating model change is also what is the key element of our plan going forward.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

Christopher Carey

Tracey, can you just maybe frame the CDC dispute. What's happened to date in -- what are you trying to resolve? And the reason I asked is because you made a comment in the presentation about no impact this year, but how do we size this if litigation doesn't prove successful for CDC going into next year? And then this is just a follow-up, but there's been some comments around inflation going into next year, and it's not just Midwest premium and aluminum at energy prices specifically. What's the sensitivity to Molson Coors earnings to energy prices just given some of the volatility that we've seen in recent days.

Rahul Goyal

So let me talk about CDC and Tracey, if you can talk through about the energy sensitivity side of it. So Chris, a couple of things on CDC. You have 1 self-owned distribution business in the United States in the State of Colorado. I would say we're pretty proud of how that team has executed over the years with all suppliers, right? And it's pretty much award-winning in the network across all suppliers. As you could imagine, I can't say a lot about the legal dispute of the actions we are taking. We had a good win in the last few weeks, but we'll let that legal piece play out.

If you think about the impact of this, we talked about there's no impact of this. We don't believe there's any impact of this in '26 and in '27, we will have to see how the legal work stream plays out. I think for us, what we are focused on, it's business as usual. The team continues to execute on all suppliers -- and we'll see how the legal process plays out. And when we have that information, we'll definitely share that.

On the inflation side, I would say it best premium is definitely a big area of focus as we think about our business going forward. I know your question of sensitivity I'll have into Tracey, but what's important for us to make business resilient, right? And I spoke about this in the context of having a diverse supply base, leading into vertical integration. -- making sure we can control our value chain in the right way. So for us, those become important priorities as we go into '27. But Tracey, do you want to address the energy piece?

Tracey Joubert

Yes. So look, the biggest impact to us has been on the packaging materials, particularly Midwest premium and aluminum. From an energy piece, we also treat that, obviously, as a commodity and we hedge what we can. We use a lot of natural gas as well in our breweries. But I would say from a fuel point of view, yes, it does have an impact for sure, not just on us but also on the consumer, which is the concern. But the biggest impact for us this quarter has been on the logistics side.

And the fact that the freight market has tightened so much despite the fact that we do have long-term contracts, we have had to go out into the market. and procure those logistics at spot, which has been higher as I think you've heard a lot of CPG companies talking about fuel and logistics costs. So as we look into next year, I mean, we do expect some of these higher commodity costs and some of the high input costs to persist. But as Rahul said, we have this hedging program, which has helped mitigate the inflation, but also really leaning into our cost savings program to help us in the short term, for sure, to mitigate some of the very high costs that we see, which have been unprecedented, as you've heard us speak many times, particularly of our metals.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Galbo with Bank of America.

Peter Galbo

I wanted to circle back on performance in the Americas and maybe in Canada, specifically -- that had been, I think, a market of strength that has kind of helped you outperform some of the scanner data and some of the modeling that we all do, but it seems to have taken kind of a turn this quarter. And just wanted to unpack that a little bit more if there was anything particular you saw -- it was a comp issue? Just some more detail there would be appreciated. .

Rahul Goyal

So let me address the Americas as a whole, Peter, and then I know your question specifically on Canada. So -- if we look at our business in the U.S., we talked about share trend improvement. And that was across our core brands, our value brands, -- and if you think about our Beyond Beer agenda, we definitely continue to see strong progress there in terms of growth with brands like FeverTree, Monaco. So I would say definitely moving our business forward in terms of both the portfolio transformation, but also making it stronger. In Canada, the absolute numbers that you see is a function of the category. .

We are -- have a pretty broad portfolio in Canada. We feel very good about the portfolio. We are the #1 lite brand in Canada with Coors Light. We see good momentum in the Molentric mark. -- above premium portfolio with Milli and Coors original and our focus in Beyond with or Selzer, are in a good position. So what you did see in Q3 was the category weakness, and that was what, I would say, are similar drivers around affordability and is consumer sentiment.

But beyond that, there's -- I wouldn't call out anything specific, Peter, in Canada at this time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

Unknown Analyst

This is JD on Robert. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the competitive dynamics in the U.K. You noted that category pressure and consumer weakness has intensified throughout the year. But maybe could you clarify if there's been an incremental step up so far in 4Q.

And then maybe any additional color on expectations for the pricing and promo environment there in 2027.

Rahul Goyal

So if you look at the U.K. business, we've talked about our port business this year. But if you step back, our U.K. business has done a great job on building out our portfolio, both in the above premium but also making sure our core brands are strong, right? But this market is competitive. And there's a number of different players. And I think coming into this year, we saw those actions being taken, both in terms of the co-brands and in the above-premium space. And as we go on to the summer, I would say we started taking the right commercial actions to react to that.

If you look at our core brands, which is Carling, right, it's a big platform there. We've had our first innovation. We've had our first brand refresh. And we've taken some decisions around ABB with our brands. So we're definitely, I would say, in a much better place, being competitive on the core side. the above premium de is obviously a big brand for us, but we are seeing progress in brands like Staropramen with our cost trademark -- so I would say we now have the right commercial pressures. You see it in our Q3 results. in terms of NSR per hectoliter around pricing in the U.K. in APAC, I mean it is a competitive landscape.

We want to make sure we are have all the right commercial pressure in the U.K. And we see that trajectory continue to improve in Q4. Now November, December are big months in the U.K. and therefore, we're going to see how that is and that's where the volatility comes in. But we do believe we have the right actions now to stay competitive and have the right commercial pressure in the U.K. closing out this year.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Grundy with BNP Pariba.

Kevin Grundy

Great. A question on the portfolio and strategic considerations. We're seeing a number of staples companies prone portfolio, exit underperforming brands or exit business lines altogether. You've talked about a number of them on the call, and that is some brands are perhaps not where you'd like them to be at the moment. The category has been challenged now for the better part of 2 decades, those challenges that have worsened really in the past few years.

So I understand there's considerations around scale, stranded overhead, as leakage, among other things, -- but it would be great to kind of get your updated thoughts on the potential opportunity to prune the portfolio in certain spaces as a lever, if you will, to accelerate your transformation strategy of the portfolio in addition to the tuck-in M&A. So I appreciate your thoughts there.

Rahul Goyal

Absolutely, this is an area that we think about, Kevin, in terms of where are we going to put our resources and energy around the portfolio. So if you step back and look at the decisions we made both this year and recently is we have taken decisions to trim down our portfolio in spaces that we don't think we have the ability to win and also infrastructure where we probably have to wind down. So examples that call out is in our EMEA business, we just announced closure of a couple of breweries -- smaller breweries in the Americas. We did that last year.

And in terms of the portfolio, we take that approach of making sure where we don't have the ability to scale. That we are taking those decisions to exit. The question around, if you think about our portfolio and the 4 buckets we talk about core value segment, we also want to make sure that we are competitive with consumers that are looking for a pretty broad consideration and based on their purchasing decisions. So when we talk about value, we are focusing on 2 brands, High Life and Keystone and making sure we can execute that and focus on it.

So as part of portfolio as part of our portfolio strategy, we are being clear on what role does each part of our brands play. What is the level of investment in those brands and then how we're executing against it. So we'll continue to look at those. And where it doesn't make sense. We will continue to look at exiting either brands or infrastructure that makes us stronger for the future.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Kirk with Ross Capital Partners.

William Kirk

Rahul, in the press release, you highlighted that Horizon 2030 is not yet scaled enough to offset the headwinds experienced in the third quarter. And I guess the way that's worded, it implies it will, at some point, offset the headwinds. So when would you expect the program to be scaled enough to offset? And what more does it take to get there?

Rahul Goyal

When we laid out the strategy, Bill, we called out 4 things in a way to measure progress and measure success, right? One was our core brands, they have to be stable and healthy. And I talk a lot about share trends improvement, but the fact is we haven't got them to be stable and growing share. So that is definitely something as a team. We are very focused on given the size of those brands in our portfolio. Two, when we talk about transforming the portfolio, we were something like sub 2% a few years ago when we're approaching 10-ish, and we've added to that this year with additions like Monaco.

So that part of that our business needs to scale and we need to make sure that the growth rates are sustaining that. So that is 1 area we will continue to do. I feel good about bringing those brands into our portfolio, integrating them, executing against them, but we have to scale. The third important part was the cost management. Just given the inflationary landscape, we knew we were walking into earlier this year, right? We knew the mid best premium issues, we knew the aluminum issues and the cost saving was important to mitigate some of that risk and create some flexibility in our business.

And that one, I would say, is a continued work in progress in dealing with volatility. And then the last piece is we want to make sure we are returning cash to shareholders. So your question of scale -- excuse me, a -- scaling of our business. I mean, the first 2 elements are what's important in making sure we have resilience in the top line. and then cost savings and the initiatives we are taking around our supply chain is to make sure we have resilience in, call it, the COGS and the cost side of our business to navigate any sort of volatility.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

Michael Lavery

Would love to just get some thoughts on kind of the opposite of Kevin's questions in question in a way. Just sort of how do you see your right to win and where the growth opportunities are -- and some of the context for it is just with the category dynamics, there's lots of the fastest-growing brands that are privately owned -- there's also been a shift in recent years to high ABV that is gaining consumer traction, but is category dilutive certainly from a volume perspective.

And so just curious maybe what -- how you think about organic growth opportunities versus M&A? How many more monitors are there to come? Is that the answer? Just give us a sense maybe of where you can really drive incremental growth?

Rahul Goyal

So if we -- I think if I break your question up maybe into 2 parts. One is the right to win and then the, call it, the growth opportunity. So if you take on the right to win is, we have an infrastructure in our core markets, I would say, is best of class, right? And we do operate in some of the best profit pools. So whether it's production infrastructure, distribution, retail execution, -- and we've proven that with some of the adds we've had in our portfolio, things like fever things like Monaco way, we have brands that had some scale but we can take that and really accelerate that scale, right?

So you talk about Monaco. I think I've mentioned this before that it's 5 states in 1 particular channel. And so that gives us a great platform to take and move it forward or whether it was Fevertree where we could take the on-premise strength and really scale there. So for us, right to win is definitely leveraging our infrastructure, leveraging our capability making sure we can take a portfolio that makes sense for our customers and retailers.

Now your second part of the question is how many of them are out there in private company and high ABV. And I think that's where we want to make sure we are staying disciplined. I mean everybody here knows the flavor category. It is proven to be volatile and therefore, we want to make sure we are being smart about how we deploy our capital and not just chase top line, right? I think that's 1 thing we've been disciplined about in Monaco, again, great example, [Vinland] in around for over a decade, had got some scale and then we can accelerate the scale. So -- we definitely want to keep leveraging our balance sheet to deploy and where it makes sense.

We want to stay disciplined on how we deploy that capital. But we do think that, that opportunity exists in I wouldn't say a lot of subcategories, but in a few categories where we do have the right to win, where our infrastructure does enable us to win big. So we'll stay disciplined, build those augment our portfolio with that and then use that to make sure that we have the right growth drivers while we stay focused on keeping our big brands stable and healthy.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Drew Levine with JPMorgan.

Drew Levine

Rahul, I just wanted to ask around the pricing environment, clearly, commodities have been a material headwind this year. It sounds like Tracy that you expect it to continue to be a headwind in the near term and into 2027. A number of CPG companies have talk to incremental inflation-driven pricing actions yet Molson Coors is sticking with the historical algorithm, it seems like at least for this year.

I'm just curious when you see for potential incremental pricing opportunities into 2027 to recover some of this gross margin headwind where Americas is down several hundred basis points over the past couple of years.

Rahul Goyal

Thank you for that question. Drew, you're absolutely right. The way we think about our business is a couple of things, right? One, how can we drive efficiency to make sure we can handle the inflationary headwinds, right? So I know I've talked a lot about that. So I believe that. But your question around the top line and how do we think about both pricing and mix. So for us, the portfolio transformation piece becomes super important, right? So brands like FeverTree, Monaco are high NSR per hectoliter gives us flexibility to absorb some of the inflationary headwinds in different ways.

So we've talked a lot about making sure that our portfolio is moving in that direction in terms of mix perspective. On the pricing one, it is a competitive landscape and we want to make sure we are competitive in the context of our brands. So this is why the Hanger portfolio that spans things like the value portfolio and then the core is important because then we can flex those levers in terms of pricing. We're going to see how this evolves into '27. But right now, yes, we have taken that decision to make sure we stay competitive in.

And this is a very local context, right? These are going to be by market, by brand. How do we make sure we are leveraging the pricing lever to the best of its ability, but staying competitive with our portfolio as we navigate our portfolio transformation work.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.