Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh Quý 1 năm tài chính 2027 của Peloton (PTON): Biên lợi nhuận tăng

Điểm nhấn chính

• Peloton báo cáo doanh thu quý 1 năm tài chính 2027 đạt 559 triệu USD, tăng 2% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, đánh dấu quý thứ ba liên tiếp ghi nhận tăng trưởng doanh thu so với cùng kỳ.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp tổng thể tăng 975 điểm cơ bản lên 61,3%, nhờ điều kiện thuế quan thuận lợi và chi phí liên quan đến thu hồi sản phẩm giảm. EBITDA điều chỉnh tăng 42% lên 168 triệu USD.
• Dòng tiền tự do đạt 143 triệu USD, tăng 113% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Peloton kết thúc quý với 1,34 tỷ USD tiền và các khoản tương đương tiền, vượt tổng nợ.
• Số lượng thuê bao Connected Fitness trả phí cuối kỳ đạt 2,475 triệu, nằm ở cận trên trong mức dự báo của công ty. Tỷ lệ hủy đăng ký ròng là 1,7%, với mức suy giảm so với cùng kỳ năm trước thu hẹp còn 11 điểm cơ bản.
• Công ty duy trì triển vọng năm tài chính 2027 với doanh thu từ 2,3 tỷ USD đến 2,4 tỷ USD, EBITDA điều chỉnh từ 475 triệu USD đến 525 triệu USD và dòng tiền tự do tối thiểu 350 triệu USD.
• Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng danh mục máy chạy bộ Tread mới, thiết bị thương mại và một danh mục phần cứng mới dự kiến ra mắt vào mùa thu năm 2027 sẽ mở rộng thị trường tiềm năng của Peloton, dù các sáng kiến này vẫn đang ở giai đoạn đầu.

Kết quả tài chính cốt lõi

Lợi ích từ thuế quan và các yếu tố liên quan đến thu hồi sản phẩm đã đóng góp khoảng 25 triệu USD trong quý. Nếu loại trừ các khoản này, ban lãnh đạo cho biết EBITDA điều chỉnh sẽ đạt 143 triệu USD, cao hơn 3 triệu USD so với mức trung vị của dự báo.

Biên lợi nhuận gộp của mảng Connected Fitness đạt khoảng 33%, so với mức 6,9% của cùng kỳ năm trước. Nếu loại trừ khoảng 25 triệu USD lợi ích từ thuế quan và việc thu hồi sản phẩm, biên lợi nhuận của mảng này sẽ vào khoảng 17%. Cơ cấu sản phẩm nghiêng nhiều hơn về các sản phẩm có biên lợi nhuận cao hơn cũng góp phần hỗ trợ mức cải thiện so với cùng kỳ năm trước.

Hiệu quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Peloton đã ra mắt danh mục máy chạy bộ được cải tiến gồm Tread Flex, Peloton Tread Vision và Tread+ Vision. Tread Flex là mẫu máy chạy bộ gập đầu tiên của công ty với mức giá gần 2.000 USD, giải quyết vấn đề về khả năng chi trả và hạn chế không gian. Tread Vision bổ sung các tính năng thị giác máy tính, trong khi Tread+ Vision tích hợp chế độ SLED.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết doanh số bán máy chạy bộ cho các hội viên hiện tại có thể giúp giảm đáng kể tỷ lệ hủy đăng ký, trong khi tỷ lệ đăng ký thuê bao ở nhóm chưa phải hội viên mua máy chạy bộ cho đến nay vẫn tương đương với tỷ lệ ở nhóm chưa phải hội viên mua xe đạp tập Peloton. Tuy nhiên, công ty cho biết còn quá sớm để xác định cơ cấu cuối cùng giữa thuê bao mới và thuê bao hiện hữu.

Peloton IQ đã có hơn 1 triệu người dùng hoạt động hàng tháng tương tác với các tính năng của nền tảng trong tháng 9. Các tính năng mới bao gồm phân tích tư thế chạy, mục tiêu tốc độ cá nhân hóa và ReRuns, giúp tái hiện các cung đường ngoài trời trên máy chạy bộ Peloton. Peloton cũng mở rộng tích hợp sang Whoop và Google Gemini bên cạnh Apple, Garmin và Fitbit.

Bộ phận Kinh doanh Thương mại ghi nhận tăng trưởng doanh thu 13% so với cùng kỳ năm trước trong quý 1. Peloton ước tính công ty nắm giữ khoảng 4% thị trường thiết bị thể hình thương mại. Ban lãnh đạo ghi nhận sự quan tâm ban đầu đối với dòng sản phẩm Peloton Commercial Series từ các đơn vị vận hành phòng tập và đối tác khách sạn, nhưng lưu ý rằng các chu kỳ mua sắm thương mại thường dài hơn và thường bắt đầu bằng việc dùng thử.

Peloton đã mở 10 cửa hàng Micro Store kể từ đầu năm tài chính 2027, nâng tổng số cửa hàng tại Mỹ lên 19. Công ty cũng bổ sung Fitness Factory làm đối tác bán lẻ đầu tiên dành riêng cho thị trường Canada.

Mức độ tương tác của hội viên vẫn duy trì tích cực, với số buổi tập luyện trung bình hàng tháng trên mỗi thuê bao tăng so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Số buổi tập Pilates tăng 53%, trong khi nội dung tập luyện sức mạnh tiếp tục gia tăng thị phần. Ban lãnh đạo nhận định việc tham gia nhiều bộ môn thể hình khác nhau sẽ hỗ trợ duy trì hội viên.

Sau khi kết thúc quý, Peloton đã tự nguyện thanh toán trước 280 triệu USD khoản vay có kỳ hạn, giảm số dư nợ xuống còn khoảng 700 triệu USD. Cùng với khoản thanh toán trái phiếu khoảng 200 triệu USD vào tháng 2, công ty đã giảm tổng nợ khoảng 500 triệu USD, tương đương một phần ba, trong năm dương lịch 2026.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo tiếp tục kỳ vọng tỷ lệ hủy đăng ký ròng trong năm tài chính 2027 sẽ gần như đi ngang so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Việc so sánh doanh thu sẽ trở nên khó khăn hơn khi Peloton bước qua chu kỳ một năm kể từ đợt tăng giá thuê bao vào tháng 10 năm 2025 vào giữa quý 2.

Công ty cũng có kế hoạch ra mắt phần cứng thuộc một danh mục mới vào mùa thu năm 2027, điều mà ban lãnh đạo tin rằng có thể mở rộng đáng kể tổng thị trường có thể tiếp cận (TAM). Chi tiết cụ thể về sản phẩm không được công bố.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Khả năng sinh lời trong quý 1 được hưởng lợi từ điều kiện thuế quan thuận lợi và chi phí thu hồi sản phẩm thấp hơn, những yếu tố mà ban lãnh đạo xác định là không định kỳ.
• Nhu cầu thiết bị trong quý 2 phụ thuộc lớn vào Black Friday, Cyber Monday và kỳ nghỉ lễ mùa đông, làm hạn chế khả năng dự báo vào đầu quý.
• Doanh thu cả năm vẫn được dự báo sẽ giảm ở mức trung vị khi Peloton bước qua chu kỳ một năm kể từ các đợt tăng giá thuê bao trước đó.
• Số lượng thuê bao Connected Fitness trả phí được dự báo sẽ giảm so với cùng kỳ năm trước trong quý 2 bất chấp xu hướng hủy đăng ký đang cải thiện.
• Sự biến động của thị trường tín dụng đã làm trì hoãn các quyết định tái cấp vốn. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sẽ tiếp tục kiên nhẫn vì Peloton không có khoản nợ nào đáo hạn trong ngắn hạn và lượng tiền mặt nắm giữ nhiều hơn nợ.
• Nhu cầu thiết bị thương mại rất khả quan, nhưng các đợt dùng thử của khách hàng và chu kỳ mua sắm kéo dài hơn có thể làm chậm thời điểm đóng góp vào doanh thu.

Điểm nhấn phần hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết dòng máy chạy bộ mới áp dụng cấu trúc phân khúc theo cấp độ (good-better-best) nhằm đáp ứng các nhu cầu khác nhau của khách hàng về giá cả, không gian, tính năng hướng dẫn tập luyện và hiệu suất. Công ty kỳ vọng danh mục này sẽ hỗ trợ cả việc thu hút lẫn giữ chân thuê bao, nhưng cho biết quý nghỉ lễ cần diễn ra thêm trước khi có thể định lượng tác động.

Về việc mở rộng ra quốc tế, Peloton cho biết một khảo sát của công ty đã xác định khoảng 45 triệu người tiêu dùng quan tâm tại sáu quốc gia nơi các sản phẩm mang thương hiệu của công ty hiện đang có mặt. Bên ngoài các thị trường đó, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tận dụng mạng lưới của Precor, đơn vị đang phục vụ hơn 80.000 cơ sở tại 60 quốc gia, để mở rộng thông qua các phòng tập, cơ sở lưu trú và các tòa nhà chung cư.

Về phân bổ vốn, ban lãnh đạo cho biết Peloton có thể đầu tư cho tăng trưởng, duy trì bảng cân đối kế toán vững mạnh và triển khai lượng vốn thặng dư để tạo ra giá trị cho cổ đông. Mọi quyết định hoàn trả vốn sẽ được đánh giá cùng hội đồng quản trị dựa trên lợi nhuận kỳ vọng, rủi ro và các yêu cầu thanh khoản.

Kỷ luật chi phí sẽ tiếp tục mang tính trọng tâm thay vì dàn trải. Ban lãnh đạo dự định tiếp tục đầu tư vào nội dung, phát triển sản phẩm và R&D, đồng thời tìm kiếm hiệu quả trong chi phí quản lý doanh nghiệp (G&A) và các lĩnh vực hoạt động khác.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good day, and welcome to Peloton's First Quarter 2027 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. James Marsh, Treasurer and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

James Marsh

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Conference Call. Joining today's call are Peloton's CEO, Peter Stern; and CFO, Sid Thacker. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include forward-looking statements related to our business under federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

Please refer to our SEC filings today's press release and our earnings presentation, all of which can be found on our Investor Relations website for a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our results. During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures and definitions for our user metrics are also provided in today's press release. I'll turn it over to Peter.

Peter Stern

Thank you, James, and congratulations on becoming our Treasurer in addition to Head of IR. And good morning, everyone. We kicked off fiscal year 2027 by delivering Q1 results ahead of expectations. Fully deleveraging our balance sheet as measured by net debt and debuting a new tread lineup engineered for every runner, walker and hiker. These achievements demonstrate our progress on our ongoing financial and strategic transformation and position us to continue expanding Peloton's footprint across a broader swath of the multitrillion dollar global wellness economy.

In previous calls, I've intimated about our innovation pipeline. And in Q1, we put hard proof behind those words. In late September, we introduced Tread Flex our first-ever folding tread, which was designed from the ground up to solve the 2 biggest barriers to purchase price and space. We also launched the Peloton Tread Vision and Tread+ Vision as part of our revamped tread portfolio. All 3 new trends have met with a claim from consumers and press. At the same time, we also brought the Peloton Commercial series bike and tread to market and rolled out the next evolution of our AI-powered operating system, Peloton IQ.

In Q1, we exceeded the midpoint of guidance on revenue, marking our third consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth, aided by the price changes we implemented last year. While we don't forecast revenue growth to remain linear for the balance of FY '27, once we lap those changes, we're encouraged by this progress. We also reached the top end of our guidance for subscriptions, and substantially outperformed in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA.

Our transformation continues to be guided by 4 strategic imperatives: first, improve member outcomes second, meet members everywhere; third, make members for life; and fourth, business excellence. We continue to make significant progress across all 4. First, to improve member outcomes, we focus on human impact, elevating our members' cardio fitness, strength, longevity and happiness. When we help members achieve their goals, we prove our value and build stronger relationships.

Product innovation is central to delivering these outcomes, and we are entering the FY '27 holiday season with the best lineup of products in the history of Peloton featuring major advances in hardware, software and affordability. Our revamped tread portfolio with Tread Flex, Peloton Tread Vision, and Peloton Tread+ Vision has emboldened us to set the goal of becoming as famous for running as we are for cycling. Alongside our hardware innovations, we introduced new PeletonIQ capabilities that deliver more advanced personalized guidance to help our members achieve their goals.

These updates, which became available to members on October 1 include run analysis, which analyzes running form to help members run safer and faster. IQ pace targets, which constantly adjust personalized target speed ranges based on a member's running performance, and ReRuns, which allow members to recreate their favorite outdoor route on any Peloton Tread. By deepening our commitment to running, walking and hiking, modalities that are seeing strong momentum, both in culture and on our platform. We aim to engage broader audiences, expand our share of home treadmill sales and better empower members to attain their fitness and wellness goals.

We also expanded our wearable and connected app integrations to include Woop and Google Gemini, in addition to existing integrations with Apple, Garmin and Fitbit enabling even more members to seamlessly sync their metrics with Peloton IQ. By integrating the devices, our members already wear every day. we can deliver more personalized guidance that puts Peloton at the center of their daily wellness routines.

As you've heard me say before, our ambition extends far beyond cardio. With our revamped tread portfolio rolled out in North America and our other markets set to follow in the spring, we are now turning our attention to launching products in new categories beyond Bike and Tread. By combining premium hardware in an expanding array of categories with personalized software and the world's best human instruction, we're building a connected wellness ecosystem designed to support our members across every aspect of their health span.

We plan to launch hardware in a new category in the fall of '27 and which we believe will meaningfully expand our TAM. And together with other initiatives we are discussing today, put the company on track for sustained revenue growth in the future. Moving to meet members everywhere, our second strategic pillar, we took big steps to expand our cultural presence and extend Peloton's reach beyond the home. To generate excitement around our newly launched tread lineup, we introduced the next chapter of our Let Yourself go brand platform. Let Yourself run is a multichannel marketing campaign featuring global Superstar and Peloton superfan, Mile, alongside the debut of her latest studio album.

Marketing messaging generated a more than 100% surge in demos at our first-party retail stores and a measurable uptick in our share of voice.

Turning to our commercial business unit. B2B continues to be a growth engine for the company. In Q1, the CBU delivered double-digit growth with a 13% year-over-year revenue increase. We recently made our new Peloton Commercial series equipment available for sale, marking a critical step in Peloton's expansion beyond the home. Early interest has exceeded our initial expectations and we are already in trials and advanced conversations with leading global gym operators and premium hospitality partners. We look forward to sharing more on our progress here soon.

Additionally, we have expanded our physical retail presence ahead of the holiday season by opening 10 new Peloton Micro store locations since the beginning of FY '27. Bringing our total to 19 stores across the U.S., nearly double our fleet from this time last year. Our micro stores continue to provide an efficient first-party retail channel, both on a unit sales per square foot basis and by driving a higher mix of premium SKUs.

In addition to our micro stores, we also launched a number of fitness factory locations, our first Canada-specific retail partner. Our members for life pillar focuses on strengthening subscription retention. Loyalty to Peloton is correlated with engagement, which is driven by our world-class instructors, who continually refresh our content and keep members motivated and inspired. We continue to see healthy engagement from our subscription base and achieved year-over-year growth in average monthly workouts per subscription.

We are also seeing more variety of engagement from our members with strength offerings, increasing share and pilates workouts in particular, growing by 53% year-over-year in Q1. We know that engagement with multiple modalities is correlated with better retention, not to mention longer lifespan and health span and our instructors ability to guide members into new modalities continues to be essential to this momentum.

Our business continues to benefit from low churn. In Q1, our churn rate of 1.7% and showed significantly improved trends versus Q4 '26, and we finished at the high end of our guidance range for paid connected fitness subscriptions. Sid will speak to this in more depth shortly. Last, on our strategy of business excellence, we continue to improve the financial health of our business and instill financial discipline across our operations. This includes our implementation of AI. By embedding AI across our operations, we are innovating faster and at lower cost.

In fiscal '24, we spent over $300 million on R&D, which declined to roughly $240 million in fiscal '26 and an even lower run rate in fiscal '27 yet our pace and scope of innovation have increased dramatically. Another example in the category of business excellence is diversification of our supply chain. With this quarter's new product lineup, we have diversified hardware equipment suppliers which will help us ensure continuity of supply and manage our costs as evidenced by our ability to launch a treadmill at $1,000 less than our prior base model.

Finally, I want to provide you with a quick update on our capital structure and our goals of lowering our cost of capital and gaining more flexibility. We have significantly improved our credit profile since our last refinancing in May of '24. That credit profile was further enhanced by our voluntary debt paydown of $280 million subsequent to quarter end, on top of a roughly $200 million note repayment at maturity in February, cumulatively lowering our gross debt by 1/3 or approximately $0.5 billion in calendar '26.

Given the recent volatility in the debt markets, we are being opportunistic and discipline to optimize our cost of debt and flexibility. As we look ahead, I continue to be filled with confidence and optimism about Peloton's future. Our multiyear innovation road map is robust. Our commercial business is opening vital new touch points with new audiences, and our brand remains unmatched in its ability to inspire members every day. We have the right strategy and the right team positive forward momentum with encouraging results, and I'm excited about what's ahead.

Speaking of the right team, I'll now pass it over to Sid to share more details about the quarter.

Siddharth Thacker

Thanks, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Last quarter, I highlighted our recurring subscription business, the opportunity in our commercial business unit and our product pipeline as foundations for building a stronger Peloton. Our Q1 performance provides solid evidence of our progress on all 3. We delivered our third consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth, expanded gross profit and generated strong free cash flow. That provides us the ability to both invest in our future and strengthen our balance sheet. Our focus is to do this in a disciplined way so we maximize shareholder value.

Diving into our Q1 financial results, we ended the quarter with 2.475 million ending paid Connected Fitness subscriptions at the high end of our guidance range. Q1 net churn was 1.7% and an increase of 11 basis points year-over-year compared with a 37 basis point year-over-year increase in Q4. Last quarter, we discussed the onetime factors that we believe accounted for roughly 50% of the year-over-year degradation in churn. I'm pleased to report that we saw both a normalization of those onetime factors, along with improving underlying churn.

As a reminder, Q1 fiscal year 2027 will be the last quarter where we compare against the period prior to our October 2025 subscription price increase. Our current trajectory this quarter gives us confidence in our expectation of flat full year churn for fiscal year 2027 versus fiscal year 2026 and highlights the best-in-cost engagement and retention profile of our loyal member base.

Total revenue was $559 million in Q1, an increase of $8 million or 2% year-over-year and $4 million above the midpoint of our guidance range. Total gross profit was $343 million in Q1, an increase of $59 million or 21% year-over-year. Total gross margin was 61.3% and an increase of 975 basis points year-over-year and 430 basis points above our guidance of approximately 57%. Total gross margin benefited from tariff favorability on Peloton and Precor products as well as lower recall costs compared with last year and versus our expectations. Please refer to the investor presentation for the segment level breakdown for total revenue and total gross margin.

Total adjusted operating expenses, which exclude restructuring and impairment expenses, were $226 million in Q1, a decrease of $4 million or 2% year-over-year. This included lower G&A and R&D expenses, primarily driven by lower payroll and stock-based compensation, partially offset by higher sales and marketing expenses. We increased acquisition and brand marketing spend for our Fed launch campaign, which began in earnest during the last 10 days of the quarter prior to October 1 on sale days. We remain focused on managing dilution through a disciplined approach to equity compensation, which includes changes in our program design and tying more SBC to financial performance.

Our stock-based compensation expense was $40 million and decreased $7 million or 16% year-over-year in Q1. This represents the lowest stock-based compensation we've had in many years. Adjusted EBITDA was $168 million in Q1 or approximately 30% of revenue, an increase of $50 million or 42% year-over-year and $23 million above the high end of our guidance range. Outperformance relative to guidance was primarily driven by tariff favorability and lower-than-expected recall related costs. Excluding these nonrecurring factors, adjusted EBITDA would have been $143 million or $3 million above the midpoint of guidance. As a reminder, Q1 of last year had a $13.5 million nonrecurring charge for seat post inventory.

Q1 free cash flow was $143 million or 26% of revenue, which reflects an increase of $76 million or 113% year-over-year. The year-over-year improvement reflects the year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, paired with timing benefits associated with net working capital.

Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $1.34 billion of cash and equivalents, an increase of $136 million from the prior quarter last year. We ended the quarter with cash and equivalents exceeding our total debt. On October 9, we made a $280 million voluntary prepayment on our term loan using cash on hand, reducing our existing term loan to around $700 million. Our strong balance sheet significant cash generation and confidence in our innovation pipeline allows us to reduce gross leverage while continuing to invest in the business and drive shareholder value.

Let me provide an update on our refinancing efforts. At this point, we have completed meetings with the rating agencies and investors and received positive feedback. Given the volatility in credit markets since late August, we are being methodical about our approach to any future refinancing. Our results this quarter, combined with strong free cash flow, further strengthened our operating and financial profile with the credit markets. We have no near-term debt tory, a net cash balance sheet and will take steps to ensure that this process results in the best possible outcome for the business.

Next, I'd like to share context for our financial outlook. Our full year fiscal 2027 total revenue outlook of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion remains unchanged from last quarter, reflecting a decrease of approximately 4% year-over-year at the midpoint. As we discussed last quarter, our revenue comparisons reflect the impact of last year's subscription price increase. Those pricing changes provided a year-over-year tailwind in Q1, and we began lapping them midway through Q2. Our Q2 total revenue outlook of $625 million to $650 million reflects a decrease of approximately 3% year-over-year at the midpoint and an increase of approximately 14% quarter-over-quarter.

As in prior years, Q2 is a seasonally strong quarter for equipment sales, reflecting holiday demand and the lead in to the new year. Our revenue guidance reflects a blend of optimism regarding the positive feedback from our refreshed Fed lineup balanced by uncertainty over what will transpire during a quarter that is heavily back-weighted towards Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Winter Holiday sales. We are maintaining our full year fiscal 2027 on total gross margin outlook of approximately 54%, an increase of 140 basis points year-over-year, primarily driven by higher Connected Fitness gross margins and including the tariff and recall-related favorability this quarter.

Q2 total gross margin is expected to be approximately 50%. The sequential change versus Q1 reflects a seasonally higher mix of Connected fitness product revenue in comparison with the quarter that benefited from nonrecurring items. Our full fiscal year 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $475 million to $525 million is also unchanged, reflecting an increase of approximately 7% year-over-year at the midpoint. This outlook reflects continued cost discipline as well as the benefit of lapping nonrecurring costs incurred last year.

For Q2, we expect adjusted EBITDA of $85 million to $100 million, an increase of 14% year-over-year at the midpoint. The sequential change from Q1 reflects seasonally higher marketing investments and the comparison with Q1 tariffs and other favorabilities. Our Q2 guidance for ending paid Connected Fitness subscriptions of 2.425 million to 2.445 million reflects a decrease of approximately 8.5% year-over-year at the midpoint. As we lapped last year's subscription price increase, we expect year-over-year net churn to improve meaningfully in Q2 and subsequently increased year-over-year in Q3 due to an unpaused benefit we observed in Q3 last year, following elevated pauses in Q2 from pricing changes.

Overall, we continue to expect net churn to be roughly flat year-over-year for full year fiscal 2027. Generating meaningful free cash flow remains a priority. We are maintaining our full year fiscal 2027 and minimum free cash flow target of at least $350 million, consistent with the approach we've taken in prior years. We are focused on converting earnings into cash and maintaining the flexibility to invest in long-term growth. We are strengthening Peloton financial foundation and setting the stage for a return to sustained growth. In the meantime, we remain focused on generating cash, investing with discipline and delivering value for our shareholders.

I'll now turn it over to James, who will kick off the Q&A with questions from our retail investors.

James Marsh

Thanks, Sid. We'll answer a question from retail now. Travis in Denver, leaderboard named Trav Russell asks the following question. Peloton continues to mature in existing markets. Significant international growth opportunities remain untapped. What are the primary barriers to entering these markets, and how do you envision international expansion contributing to long-term growth. Peter, do you want to handle that one?

Peter Stern

Sure. And thanks, Travis, for the question. I don't actually believe we are mature in our existing markets. we recently ran a survey in the countries where we currently operate. We're in 6 of them right now with Peloton branded products. And we heard from people who are interested, willing and able to pay for the products that we offer today and the products that we have in our road map over the next couple of years. And the results of that survey suggested that there are about 45 million people in the countries we operate in that are interested in Peloton products. So that represents substantial growth opportunities still available to us.

And we feel, at least in the 5 countries outside the U.S. where we operate that we've achieved strong product market fit because our subscriptions in those markets display retention and engagement behaviors that are similar to those that we have in the U.S. In a lot of countries outside the 6 where we operate with Peloton branded products, People live in smaller homes that are closer to urban centers and the population that's able and willing to invest in home fitness equipment is proportionately smaller. However, there are plenty of people in those countries that want to get fit and they're willing to invest in themselves. It's just more likely to happen in the context of a gym or a studio setting.

So our focus right now is on using our commercial business unit to drive the growth of Peloton branded product expansion outside our 6 countries. Precor already serves more than 80,000 facilities. They're across 60 countries versus 6. They already have a powerful distribution network. And so when we look at the capabilities of that Precore distribution system with the new Peloton commercial series that just went on sale, we think we've got some real opportunity to penetrate gyms, studios, hospitality and other vertical markets like multiple dwelling units as we seed the ground for further Peloton expansion in the future.

James Marsh

Great. Thanks, Peter. Can we open it up to questions, please?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from the line of Youssef Squali with Truist.

Phần hỏi đáp

Youssef Squali

Congrats on the ongoing turnaround guys. So Peter, can you maybe just address how the lower price and you thread flex that you've just introduced and other upcoming products that are coming down the pike. And I think you kind of referred to a new vertical in your prepared remarks, are potentially expanding the TAM for Peloton, maybe make it easier to compete particularly in these times where maybe the consumer maybe a little more cost -- maybe more cost conscious.

And then talk to us also about the opportunity around the commercial business units and especially the sustainability of those double-digit growth rate that you just put up for the first quarter.

Peter Stern

Absolutely. Thanks, Youssef. So affordability certainly seems to be in the air this week as an important theme. So we'll -- we're very excited about the fact that with the launch of Tread Flex and the revamping of our entire tread portfolio with called on Tread Vision and Peloton Tread+ Vision. We now have a good, better, best model and a much more effective differentiation across the products in terms of things like price, fold ability with Tread Flex that allows us to serve people who live in smaller homes with the use of computer vision now on the Peloton Tread Vision with not just the benefit of a flat belt tread on the Pelotons Vision, but also SLED mode. All of these things are allowing walkers, runners and hikers the optionality to pick the best product at the right price point for them.

And it should go without saying that us having a product now that's skirting the $2,000 price point in the treadmill category puts us really right in the sweet spot of the market for high-quality treads. So that certainly opens up our TAM in the tread market, which is a large market with still continued growth. We expect our sales of treadmills to be materially higher in the world where we got our best line where we didn't.

Now looking ahead at TAM, I'm not going to reveal the products specifically today that will wait for an appropriate consumer moment, but I did share that the first of them will launch in the fall of 2027. And we are targeting areas where there is tremendous consumer interest and momentum and where we believe there's a real hole in the market for what Peloton has to offer, which is an integrated experience of premium equipment state-of-the-art software powered by AI, human instruction and our unique ability to bring together a community that keeps people feeling committed and accountable. So that will also significantly increase our TAM.

Now focusing on the commercial business, that's 1 where there is still tremendous TAM available to us. We believe that even with the strong growth that we've demonstrated, we still have only roughly 4% market share in the commercial space. And we are benefiting, we think, from the dual brand portfolio that we've created that ranges from mass market offerings to premium segment offerings through the combination of Precore and now the new Peloton Commercial series.

On the Precore side, we're just in the early stages of reinvesting in the product, in our sales capabilities, in introducing things like financing that we think will continue to power the growth of that part of our commercial services. And we're still actually getting relatively limited contribution from the Peloton branded side of the equation, given that the commercial series just went on sale, and we're still in early conversations and trials with gym operators. That being said, the interest -- the initial feedback we're getting is really encouraging. And so we view that as a potential turbocharger to the commercial business unit.

Operator

Thank you One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Sandra Penza with Wolf Research.

Shweta Khajuria

This is Shweta at Wolf. Let me try 2, please. For the new tread line, how should we be thinking about the contribution of new products that's accounted for in your full year guide and especially as we head into seasonally strong quarters? And then the second question I had was on your refinancing. It sounds like your conversations have been positive with the you are vigilant of the environment. So is it fair to think that perhaps you will take it as it comes as the environment eases up and there is no expectation of coming to a refinancing deal by year-end or anything like that sort of market dependent? Is that how we should think about it?

Peter Stern

Thanks, Shweta. Why don't I -- this is Peter. Why don't I take the first part of the question about Tread Flex and then Sid will cover the refinancing. So I'll note that it's still very early in a critical quarter for us. I'd call this the first inning given that we still have Black Friday, Cyber Monday, the December holiday period, all ahead of us. But we do expect both Tread Flex and in the context of our completely revamped tread lineup to have a positive impact on both our revenue and our subscriptions. The -- all of this is factored into our guidance. .

As I said earlier in response to Youssef,for Q2 specifically, what I can say right now is we're really pleased with the press reception, the customer reviews of the revamped treadmills. So all of those things lead us to feel optimistic. But given that it's early, I think we should hold out on providing more detail on our performance until this quarter is complete, and we roll around to our Q2 earnings. Sid?

Siddharth Thacker

Great. So, Shweta, it's Sid. Let me talk about the refinancing -- so when we set out to do the refinancing, there were 4 primary goals. The first was we needed to complete the inaugural ratings process. The second, we wanted to deleverage our balance sheet. The third is we wanted to lower our cost of capital. And fourth, we wanted to provide increasing flexibility for capital deployment to improve shareholder value, but we also wanted to do that while maintaining a strong balance sheet. So let's talk about what we've done. We've completed the ratings process and the investor meetings, and we're quite pleased with the feedback.

Given as you've seen in Q1 and our strong balance sheet, we've paid down about $280 million of our term loan in October. So we brought that down from just about $1 billion to about $700 million. Having said the last 2 months have been very volatile in the credit markets. There have been very few opportunistic issuances, and as you know, we have a very strong balance sheet. We have no upcoming maturities. We have cash that exceeds debt. And so I think our strong Q1 results further improve our position, our operational and financial profile of the credit markets. I think the message is we'll be patient, we'll be methodical in our approach, and we're confident we'll get the best outcome for the business and for shareholders.

Operator

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Arpine Kocharyan with UBS.

Arpine Kocharyan

Apologies, I'm hoping between calls today. It's very possible you addressed some of this in your prepared remarks. But I was hoping you could dive maybe a little bit deeper into what you're seeing in underlying subscriber trends after the Tread introduction, how is new product lineup kind of helping you target new subscribers versus anchoring the subscriber you already have because they're less likely to churn if they now have both a bike and a trade, obviously, ultimately, I'm really just curious to hear how much closer does this bring you toward more stabilized net sub adds? And then I have a quick follow-up. .

Peter Stern

Sure, Arpine, why don't I take this first part of your question before the follow-up. So as I said earlier, it's still early in the quarter with regard to our equipment sales and the big moments still lie ahead. That being said, we are encouraged, as I said earlier, about the reviews that we received on the product. I will also note that our tread products tend to sell more to a mix of both existing and new members. Either way, we win.

When we sell a treadmill to an existing member, we know that the likelihood of churn from that member drops precipitously as they reinvested or really retaken their valves with Peloton. With regard to the nonmembers who have been purchasing our treadmills, we've been very pleased to date to see that the rate of subscription sign up on those treadmill sales has been on par with the rate of subscription sign-up from nonmembers who take our bikes. So the actual mix of new versus existing subscribers really needs time to play itself out, especially because we began the quarter by extending our most generous promotional pricing to our existing members as a way of showing our appreciation to them for their loyalty. So that will play out over the course of the quarter. But we feel good either way.

Now to your broader point about to what extent treadmills will address the shortfall between our gross adds and our churn. What I would say is that treadmills represent essentially a down payment on the work that we are doing in both existing categories this year and in new categories, starting next year to close that gap. But we're very pleased by the trajectory where we see the rate of decline in gross adds continuing to improve, and as you could see in our quarterly results, the rate of our churn trajectory improving significantly quarter-over-quarter, implying that will be down in churn on both a rate basis and certainly an absolute basis over the remainder of the year. Eventually, if those trends continue, the lines do cross. And our challenge as a company and as a management team to accelerate the time line at which those lines cross.

Arpine Kocharyan

That's excellent. Very, very helpful. In terms of capital allocation, I wanted to -- you are in a net cash position today, which is a really great position to be in the current environment. How are you thinking about reinvesting back into the business to drive subs versus kind of inorganic growth opportunities and how you balance that against and returning cash to shareholders? .

Peter Stern

Yes, sure. This is Sid. I think, look, what do we want to do? We want to maintain a really strong balance sheet. We want to deploy excess capital to increase shareholder value, and we want to invest to grow the business. But given, as you pointed out, our very strong balance sheet and the substantial cash generation that we generate, we can do all 3. So let me just talk about cash for. So we don't need a significant amount of cash to operate the business under normal circumstances. So our subscription business provides a very steady stream of cash every month. We're also very efficient in how we fund our inventory.

So in thinking about a cash balance, we think about debt maturities. So we have obviously have convertible notes. And we want to make sure that we have enough liquidity to operate prudently and to manage the business under a variety of scenarios. Now that still leaves us with excess cash that can be deployed to create shareholder value. Now speaking of shareholder value, we believe very strongly in the value of our existing member base as well as in the potential the best-in-class innovation pipeline that Peter mentioned, to drive sustainable growth and shareholder value. We're also sensitive to dilution.

So we're going to think about those things as we think about capital deployment and return of capital to shareholders. So I think we'll work with the Board to assess capital deployment. Any decision we make is going to be made in the best interest of shareholders. We're going to assess the expected returns, risks, and we're going to do all of this while maintaining a very strong balance sheet.

Operator

And 1 moment, please. And that will come from the line of Doug Anne with JPMorgan.

Unknown Analyst

This is Danny Fifer on for Doug. On the first question on Peloton, can you maybe talk about how members are interacting with your Adrian tools and what impact you're seeing in terms of engagement and retention. And then on the second 1 on Connected Fitness gross margins, can you unpack the drivers of the material year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter step-up in 1Q? And any color you could provide on cadence going forward? .

Peter Stern

Thanks, Danny. This is Peter. Why don't I cover your questions on Peloton IQ and then I'll pass to Sid to talk about gross margins. So I'm actually really pleased to say that we now have -- in the month of September, over 1 million of our monthly active users engaged with Peloton IQ. And that can be everything from interacting with the insights that we provide them to taking classes from the personalized plans that we develop with Peloton IQ or engaging with things like our computer vision-based movement tracker.

What I love about Peloton IQ is it is an example of an application of AI that's just an unalloyed good. We use Peloton IQ to know our members to develop personalized plans for the members and then to customize the workout. And there are a lot of companies that can actually develop a personalized plan you could go in right now to Claude or to ChatGPT and give it a bunch of information about yourself and ask it to personalize the workout, but no 1 can customize the work out in the ways that we can.

So take something like the IQ PACE targets that we just announced which modify your workout based on the things that we know about you and they change that work out on the equipment. That's a unique capability using AI that only Peloton can bring to our members. And the consequence of that is that it has become a key feature of interest from prospective customers as well as a real driver of differentiation across our product lineup, giving people a reason to step up into our plus line and now into the Peloton Tread Vision product that includes computer vision. Sid, why don't you talk about gross margin?

Siddharth Thacker

Sure, Peter. So if you look at Q1 Connected Fitness gross margins of about 33%, just about 33%, that was obviously a very significant improvement from the 6.9% gross margin we reported in last year's Q1. What we outlined in the prepared remarks in the release is we had a substantial amount of tariff and recall-related capability. When you back out that roughly $25 million of favorability between recalls and tariff favorability, we end up with a margin just about 17% on the connected business side. So that is still up substantially from the 6.9% last year.

Now bear in mind, last year, we also had about $13 million of recall costs. So even if you were to normalize sort of both years and have an apples-to-apples comparison, you will still see that our Connected Fitness gross margins were healthy and up year-over-year as we mixed into higher-margin products. I think going forward, we've obviously provided our Q2 gross margin guidance of 50%. And I think the only thing to keep in mind there is in last year's Q2, we had a particularly favorable gross margin in actually the subscription business. We had about a $10 million favorability on music royalties, that was nonrecurring. So I think that's the only thing to keep in mind. But in general, we're pretty pleased with where gross margins are overall and certainly on the connect side.

James Marsh

Great. Thanks. Operator, could we take another question, please?

Operator

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Simeon Siegel with Guggenheim Securities.

Simeon Siegel

Great. Peter, and I'm sorry, it's a big earnings day, so if you already answered this question, just let me know and I'll go back to the transcripts, so you don't want to repeat it. But could you elaborate on the work you guys have done around Tread opportunity. I'm just curious, contrasting with the past. So if you -- do you think the primary issue was price, and that will be the fix because I'm curious how you isolated the difference now versus earlier when the company entered market probably at the height of Peloton popularity. And then thinking through your expectations for Tread sales, any color on how you're thinking about how many our new members versus more of a retention vehicle for existing -- and then also, sorry if I missed this, does the full year gross margin guidance include the Q1 nonrecurring benefits? .

Peter Stern

Simeon, we covered a little bit of this earlier, but no worries. Let me try to cover the parts of your question that we have not yet addressed. And then I'll pass to Sid to sort of bring us home on the question about guidance. So when we laid out our Tread road map. We're trying to go back to the real foundation -- foundational question. which is what's most important to consumers around treadmill. And it turns out there are different segments of consumers who had different needs. In particular, we identified a very large group of consumers who would love to buy a Peloton treadmill, but they were constrained due to some combination of affordability space and in some cases, even things like noise, the sound of the product.

For example, people who live in apartments where they're close to a neighbor. And so we very specifically designed Tread Flex from the ground up to address all of those issues. And we're excited to have introduced a product that is really a no-compromises product that addresses all 3 of those issues with a price point that's approaching $2,000 with full ability that reduces it to really quite a small space, and it looks great, folded up, and it's super quiet. I think we've assessed it at something like 70 decibles even when you're really cranking on that thing.

And so that definitely opens up a big part of the market that was simply unaddressable for Peloton, especially because we have not had any kind of refurbished business around treads like we've had in the bike category where we were able to redeploy inventory that had been returned to us for a variety of reasons at much lower prices. At the same time, though, we also identified demand from more other segments of the market for things from feedback. The tool we're actually saying, "I need a coach. I'd love to learn how to become a better runner, and I trust Peloton to do that, but I need you to do that and make it really intuitive.

And so our ability to bring the computer vision feature to tread Vision, we think enables us to offer a product that is simply unavailable from anyone else in the market. And then, of course, our Tread+ Vision has always been a screaming deal, honestly, in the flat belt market and delivers unprecedented energy return. But what we saw in the market there was tremendous interest in hyrox. And when you look at the hyrox modalities, 1 of them, which is the SLED push is really hard to train for at home, that requires very specialized equipment with a lot of space in a home gym that most people simply aren't going to have. And so we realized we could actually integrate SLED mode into Treads and play into another segment of the market.

And we were actually able to make that backward compatible to every Peloton Tread + we've ever offered. So -- all of that basically adds up to why we feel optimistic about our trend of sales. We think we're going to attract lots of new members, but we also think it's the reason for existing Talton members to take the leap -- if they've, for example, only had a bike and get into the treadmill space with us. Sid, you want to cover the other part of the question?

Siddharth Thacker

Yes. Sean, it's I think the short answer to your question is, yes, it does include the favorability we saw in Q1. I mean just taking a step back, when we actually set full year guidance, we sort of are aware of the potential tariff favorability and recall-related favorability. And I think the we incorporated that into our full year guidance. We just didn't know when we were going to get it. So it wasn't incorporated exclusively into our Q1 guidance. So it is all part of the guidance for the full year.

James Marsh

Operator, we have time for 1 last question.

Operator

Just 1 moment, please. And that will come from the line of Nathan Feather with Morgan Stanley.

Nathaniel Feather

Two, if I may. First, just used to hear on the new Peloton Commercial series. What's been your lever activity to that? And from a client mix, where are you getting the most kind of incremental traction? And how should we think about the ramp and consideration cycle for that product? And then -- on the flip side, interested to hear, as you had a little more time with the business, do you see any additional opportunities for cost reduction or greater efficiency that you kind of circle above and beyond where you first started?

James Marsh

Could you repeat the second question? We got the first 1 about the commercial series activity there, consideration period, et cetera, but we missed the second part.

Nathaniel Feather

Yes. On the second, just if you have any incremental areas for cost reduction or greater efficiencies that you've seen since you back coming in the business?

Peter Stern

Nathan, again, I'll take the first part of your question on the commercial series, and then we'll pass to Sid to talk about costs. So we are still in the relatively early stages, but have met with even better than anticipated interest from commercial clients. We're actually seeing, interestingly, a very broad spread in the types of clients that are interested in producing the Peloton Commercial series. Everything from the HVLP gym segments are the high-value, low-price gym operators are seeing the Peloton Commercial series as a way for them to attract new members who might not have Peloton equipment at home but would love to be able to have that experience in a shared gym environment.

To very high-end club operators that know that they appeal to, for example, travelers and other consumers who have Peloton equipment at home and have been long-standing Pason equipment customers, but want to be able to enjoy those experiences in the club setting. So the beauty of Peloton, it is such a recognizable brand. It democratizes fitness and makes it accessible to so many people that we are seeing the traction -- initial traction coming from really across the board.

As you noted, the consideration period on commercial equipment sales is typically longer. And 1 of the things that we see with fundamentally new equipment that actually comes with a subscription attached to it, which is new to a commercial environment is a desire to -- in many cases, start with the trial and then progress to a full rollout. So the stage we're at right now is building those trials with many gym operators. But again, feedback has been nothing but positive on that product -- on both products, Peloton Commercial Series Bike and Tread.

Siddharth Thacker

4 Okay. Great, Nathan. Let me just address your question on cost. I think if you look at our guidance for the full year for gross margin and adjusted EBITDA, you can infer from that, that we are going to have lower costs year-over-year. Now part of that is the carry-through impact of the reductions we had last year. But I think the broader point is we are in investment mode, but we're doing that in a really balanced way. I mean just take Q1, for example, right? We had $14 million lower R&D, G&A expense. We had $10 million in higher sales and marketing expenses we decided to fund and get behind the sort of tread launch. So costs were still down about $4 million year-over-year.

We cut costs throughout last year. So I think the roughly $14 million in R&D, G&A, quarterly run rate will decline. And then obviously, in Q4, just as a modeling note, last year, we had our legal accruals, so you should take that into account. So I think -- but the main message is we are within the context of these cost reductions have been funding this innovation pipeline that Peter has talked about, we're working through it. We already are incurring costs related to that and have been for a while, but we have been disciplined about how we manage the business to incorporate all of those costs in the results we're producing. So I think there will be some.

We're going to be targeted about costs going forward, and it is our intention to focus on things and keep investing in things that truly differentiate us. So we want to invest in content. We want to invest in development, in R&D, and all of the great things we do to delight customers.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Stern for any closing remarks.

Peter Stern

So I just want to share that we are getting an early start on giving thanks this year. Leading up to our regularly scheduled turkey burn, which takes place over Thanksgiving, we've launched our first member gratitude season to celebrate our community through loyalty rewards, in-person studio moments, partners and more. And personally, I'm enjoying collecting double club Peloton points as I close in on my 500th run.

Additionally, we recently released a ride that was truly out of this world. It's a first of its kind 20-minute ride led by Robin Arzon, featuring special guest, Dr. Jessica Mir, who wrote with Robin via satellite from the International Space Station. It's incredibly inspiring, and I think everyone should take this class. I look forward to seeing you all on the leaderboard and wish everyone a happy holiday season. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's program. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.