Hội nghị công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của Aspen Aerogels (ASPN): Doanh thu và EBITDA vượt định hướng của công ty

Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) công bố doanh thu quý 3/2026 đạt 85,2 triệu USD và EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 19,8 triệu USD, đều vượt các khoảng dự báo của công ty. Sản lượng cao hơn ở cả mảng Năng lượng Công nghiệp và Rào cản nhiệt đã giúp cải thiện khả năng hấp thụ chi phí, trong khi các chương trình xe điện tại châu Âu tiếp tục mở rộng quy mô.

Các điểm nhấn chính

• Doanh thu quý 3 tăng 71% so với quý trước và tăng 17% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 85,2 triệu USD, vượt mức dự báo từ 65 triệu đến 80 triệu USD của ban lãnh đạo.
• EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 19,8 triệu USD, vượt mức dự báo từ 7 triệu đến 15 triệu USD. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết kết quả này nhờ cơ cấu sản phẩm thuận lợi, sản lượng cao hơn và khả năng hấp thụ chi phí cố định được cải thiện.
• Doanh thu mảng Năng lượng Công nghiệp tăng 96% so với quý trước và tăng 64% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 39,9 triệu USD, nhờ việc bàn giao các dự án dưới biển theo kế hoạch và nhu cầu LNG mạnh mẽ.
• Doanh thu mảng Rào cản nhiệt tăng 54% so với quý trước lên 45,3 triệu USD. Doanh thu từ GM tăng lên 37,3 triệu USD, trong khi doanh thu từ khách hàng châu Âu đạt mức kỷ lục theo quý là 8 triệu USD.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến doanh thu quý 4 đạt từ 60 triệu đến 75 triệu USD và EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt từ 5 triệu đến 13 triệu USD.
• Aspen kỳ vọng doanh thu mảng Rào cản nhiệt tại châu Âu đạt khoảng 30 triệu USD trong năm 2026 và đặt mục tiêu 50 triệu đến 60 triệu USD trong năm 2027 trên 7 nhà sản xuất OEM và 8 chương trình.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Aspen đã tạo ra khoảng 26 triệu USD EBITDA điều chỉnh tăng thêm trên mức tăng trưởng doanh thu 35 triệu USD so với quý trước. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết tỷ lệ chuyển đổi tăng thêm xấp xỉ 75% là mức cao bất thường do cơ cấu sản phẩm và khả năng hấp thụ chi phí, đồng thời vẫn duy trì giả định trong kế hoạch ở mức 50% đến 60%.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Năng lượng Công nghiệp

Mảng Năng lượng Công nghiệp được hưởng lợi từ việc hoàn thành hai dự án dưới biển theo kế hoạch trong quý 3. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết doanh thu hàng năm từ các dự án dưới biển thường dao động từ 10 triệu đến 20 triệu USD và kỳ vọng năm 2026 sẽ nằm trong phạm vi này.

Khối lượng bàn giao LNG tiếp tục duy trì mạnh mẽ trong quý 4, khi Aspen mở rộng phạm vi tại các dự án dự kiến bàn giao trong năm 2026 và 2027. Công ty tiếp tục đặt mục tiêu tăng trưởng mảng Năng lượng Công nghiệp khoảng 20% trong năm 2026 và cho biết sẽ bước vào năm 2027 với đà tăng trưởng từ hoạt động LNG cùng một dự án dưới biển đã được đảm bảo hợp đồng.

Aspen cũng nhận được đơn hàng hạ tầng trung tâm dữ liệu đầu tiên để bàn giao và lắp đặt trong quý 4/2026. Ứng dụng ban đầu tập trung vào quản lý nhiệt và hiệu quả sử dụng tài nguyên. Ban lãnh đạo dự định sử dụng đợt lắp đặt này làm dự án nghiên cứu điển hình và tin rằng thị trường này có thể giúp mở rộng quy mô mảng Năng lượng Công nghiệp mà không cần đầu tư thêm vốn.

Rào cản nhiệt

Doanh thu mảng Rào cản nhiệt đã tăng quý thứ hai liên tiếp, sau mức tăng trưởng 81% so với quý trước trong quý 2 và 54% trong quý 3. Sản lượng của GM đã tiệm cận hơn với tốc độ bán xe hiện tại trong khi lượng hàng tồn kho được tái tích lũy ở mức khiêm tốn.

Doanh thu mảng Rào cản nhiệt tại châu Âu đạt mức kỷ lục 8 triệu USD trong quý 3. Aspen đã cung cấp cho 7 nhà sản xuất OEM trên 8 chương trình và tạo ra 18,9 triệu USD từ các khách hàng châu Âu trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026. Hầu hết các chương trình vẫn chưa bước vào giai đoạn sản xuất hàng loạt, nhưng ban lãnh đạo cho biết phần lớn dự kiến sẽ bắt đầu sản xuất vào năm 2027.

Công ty hiện không có kế hoạch xây dựng công suất chế tạo tại châu Âu. Công ty dự định dựa vào cơ sở tại Mexico, dù ban lãnh đạo đang thảo luận về khả năng thiết lập kho bãi gần các khách hàng châu Âu hơn nhằm rút ngắn chuỗi cung ứng.

Lưu trữ năng lượng bằng pin

Aspen đã ghi nhận doanh thu ban đầu từ nhiều đơn vị tham gia thị trường lưu trữ năng lượng bằng pin cho công tác thiết kế và đánh giá nâng cao. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng hoạt động thẩm định đạt chuẩn sẽ diễn ra trong thời gian tới và cho biết các cơ hội này có thể bắt đầu đóng góp doanh thu thường xuyên vào năm 2027.

Khôi phục cơ sở East Providence

Aspen đang sản xuất các tấm cách nhiệt aerogel tại East Providence trong khi khôi phục lò nung bị ảnh hưởng bởi sự cố hồi tháng 4. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng việc tái khởi động theo từng giai đoạn sẽ hoàn tất trong nửa đầu năm 2027.

Quý 3 ghi nhận 15,1 triệu USD chi phí liên quan đến sự cố, bao gồm cước vận chuyển hỏa tốc, phí tư vấn chuyên môn và chi phí sản xuất thuê ngoài tạm thời cao hơn. Công ty đang nộp yêu cầu bồi thường theo các hợp đồng bảo hiểm và dự kiến các chi phí này sẽ tiếp tục phát sinh cho đến khi quá trình khôi phục hoàn tất.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Mức cận dưới của phạm vi doanh thu quý 4 giả định sản lượng của GM đạt tốc độ quy năm khoảng 70.000 đến 90.000 xe. Ban lãnh đạo đánh giá đây là mức thận trọng so với dự báo khoảng 110.000 xe quy năm của IHS cho quý 4 và lưu ý về tính bấp bênh theo mùa vụ.

CapEx và các khoản thanh toán nợ theo lịch trình dự kiến đạt tổng cộng khoảng 10 triệu USD trong quý 4, không bao gồm chi tiêu khôi phục cơ sở East Providence. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng Aspen sẽ duy trì ít nhất vị thế tiền mặt ròng cho đến cuối năm.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Chi phí sự cố tại East Providence tiếp tục gây áp lực lên biên lợi nhuận gộp theo GAAP và dòng tiền. Khoảng 20 triệu USD chi phí liên quan đến sự cố tính từ đầu năm đến nay vẫn chưa được bảo hiểm bồi hoàn vào cuối quý.
• Vốn lưu động có thể tiếp tục biến động do địa điểm sản xuất, doanh số bán thành phẩm, yêu cầu về mức tồn kho an toàn và thời điểm nhận tiền bồi thường bảo hiểm.
• Doanh thu từ các dự án dưới biển vốn không đồng đều. Doanh thu quý 4 dự kiến sẽ giảm so với quý 3 một phần vì hai dự án theo kế hoạch đã được bàn giao trong quý 3.
• Triển vọng mảng Rào cản nhiệt tại châu Âu phụ thuộc vào tốc độ tăng sản lượng của khách hàng. Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng các thỏa thuận về giá và sản lượng hiện tại của chương trình ngụ ý mức doanh thu hơn 60 triệu USD cho năm 2027, nhưng công ty vẫn duy trì mục tiêu thận trọng hơn là 50 triệu đến 60 triệu USD.
• Phần lớn số tiền thu được từ thương vụ tiềm năng bán tòa nhà và thiết bị của Nhà máy 2 dự kiến sẽ ghi nhận vào năm 2027 và sẽ được sử dụng để giảm nợ vay có kỳ hạn theo tỷ lệ tương ứng 1:1.

Điểm nhấn phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

• Sản xuất tại châu Âu: Aspen hiện không có kế hoạch đầu tư vào công suất chế tạo tại châu Âu. Hoạt động sản xuất vẫn sẽ tập trung tại Mexico, trong khi phương án lập kho bãi tại địa phương đang được cân nhắc.
• Trung tâm dữ liệu: Dự án đầu tiên tập trung vào hiệu quả năng lượng và quản lý nhiệt thay vì khả năng cách âm. Hoạt động bàn giao và lắp đặt dự kiến diễn ra vào quý 4/2026.
• Dự án dưới biển và LNG: Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng doanh thu từ các dự án dưới biển năm 2027 sẽ duy trì trong phạm vi lịch sử từ 10 triệu đến 20 triệu USD. Hoạt động LNG đang tăng tốc, dù công ty đã hoãn việc đưa ra dự báo chi tiết cho năm 2027 cho đến cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh tiếp theo.
• Lưu trữ năng lượng bằng pin: Aspen đang cung cấp vật liệu đánh giá chuyên sâu cho nhiều đơn vị tham gia thị trường. Các bước tiếp theo là hoàn tất chứng nhận chất lượng và giành được các dự án từ khách hàng, với kỳ vọng doanh thu sẽ bắt đầu đóng góp từ năm 2027.
• Tiềm năng từ các chương trình tại châu Âu: Aspen tiếp tục cạnh tranh để giành thêm các chương trình với cả những nhà sản xuất OEM hiện tại và mới. Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng các hợp đồng mới thường không mang lại doanh thu đáng kể ngay trong năm nhận thầu, dù tiến độ phát triển dường như đang được rút ngắn.

Toàn văn cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for attending the Aspen Aerogels Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Call. [Operator Instructions] And now I would like to turn the conference over to your host Neal Baranosky, Aspen's VP of Corporate Strategy and Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may proceed, Mr. Baranosky.

Neal Baranosky

Thank you, Kathleen. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for the Aspen Aerogels Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. With us today are Don Young, President and CEO; and Grant Thoele, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer.

The press release announcing Aspen's financial results and business developments and the slide deck that will accompany our conversation today are available on the Investors section of Aspen's website, www.aerogel.com.

During this call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross profit, adjusted gross margin and adjusted net income. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are included in the back of the slide presentation and earnings release. On today's call, management will make forward-looking statements about our expectations.

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include the factors identified in our filings with the SEC. Please review the disclaimer statements on Page 1 of the slide deck as the content of our call will be governed by this language.

I'd also like to note that from time to time in connection with the vesting of restricted stock units and/or stock options issued under our long-term incentive equity program, we expect that our Section 16 officers will file Form 4 to report the sale and/or withholding of shares in order to cover the payment of taxes and/or the exercise price of options.

I'll now turn the call over to Don. Don?

Donald Young

Thanks, Neal. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Strong third quarter, exceeding the high end of our outlook for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The improvement was broad-based with robust energy industrial deliveries, increased demand from GM and growing contributions from our European EV customers. .

We also achieved early commercial milestones in data center infrastructure and battery energy storage systems. These results demonstrate progress toward our goal of growing and diversifying revenue while building durable profitability. Let me discuss the drivers of our performance, the opportunities ahead and our progress at the East Providence manufacturing facility. Our third quarter outlook called for a revenue range of $65 million to $80 million and an adjusted EBITDA range of $7 million to $15 million.

We delivered approximately $85 million in revenue and $20 million in adjusted EBITDA. This performance reflects the strength of customer demand across several parts of our business and a return to higher gross margins.

Starting with Energy Industrial -- we continue to target approximately -- we continue to target approximately 20% growth in 2026 despite the disruption at the East Providence facility. Strong project demand is driving our second half Energy Industrial performance. In Q3, we delivered our planned subsea projects, reflecting strong execution by the team.

LNG deliveries were also strong in Q3 and are continuing at a robust pace in Q4. We are expanding our scope on several current projects scheduled for 2026 and 2027 deliveries. We see a substantial multiyear opportunity in LNG particularly in the United States, the Middle East, Asia and Africa.

Looking ahead to 2027, we believe our Energy Industrial business is well positioned for another solid growth year. We have momentum from a strong second half of 2026, a 2027 subsea project in hand and market dynamics driven by a multiyear investment cycle in energy infrastructure to support the global need for energy security, supply diversification and reliable power.

On the topic of new and adjacent markets, growing investment in energy storage and data center infrastructure is creating new opportunities for Aspen. In BSS, we generated initial revenue during the third quarter from parts supply to multiple leading market participants for advanced design and evaluation work. As safety requirements evolve, manufacturers and developers are seeking higher performance, cost-effective Made in America thermal protection solutions and our proven PyroThin technology positions us well to address these needs.

We are pleased to capture first revenue and believe this opportunity will expand to contribute to our 2027 growth and profitability. In a new adjacent market, we are pleased to have captured our first data center infrastructure order for delivery in Q4 2026. A large data center campus is utilizing our products as part of its technical approach to manage the extreme resource demands associated with these mega sites and to reduce the impact on the surrounding community.

We believe resource efficiency will be a key factor in data center growth. This opportunity is a natural extension of our thermal management expertise drawing on our aerogel technology, manufacturing capabilities and technical experience.

We believe we are well positioned to support the growing power generation and resource efficiency needs of AI data centers. We will share more detail on future calls after completing our initial installations and further defining the opportunity. We believe this market could contribute significantly to scaling Energy Industrial into a durable high-margin business without the need for incremental capital investment.

Turning to our PyroThin thermal barrier business. Revenue grew 81% sequentially in Q2 and another 54% in Q3. In North America, U.S. EV demand has stabilized at approximately 6% to 7% of new vehicle sales. We see GM production aligning more closely with current sales rates while modestly rebuilding inventory, consistent with its stated demand-driven approach.

In Europe, battery electric vehicles are approaching 30% of new vehicle registrations. During Q3, our European thermal barrier business achieved record revenue, supplying 7 OEMs across 8 programs.

At our last earnings call, we projected 2026 revenue from European OEMs to be between $20 million and $30 million, up from the $10 million to $15 million projected earlier in the year. With momentum continuing in Q4, we are confident that we will be at the high end of that range. This expanding opportunity from a diverse group of European OEMs is an important contributor to our strong Q4 outlook, and we believe we can double our European Thermal Barrier revenue in 2027.

At East Providence, we are progressing toward completing our staged restart, which we expect to accomplish in the first half of 2027. I want to recognize the Aspen team for its tireless efforts to achieve a safe and disciplined restart in the plant and for its unwavering commitment to our customers. These actions strengthen our short- and long-term supply flexibility, operational resilience and ability to serve customers reliably. Grant, over to you.

Grant Thoele

Thanks, Don. And good morning, everyone. I'll cover our Q3 2026 results and Q4 outlook. Before we get into the details, I want to put this quarter into some context. Q3 showed the earnings power of this business at higher volumes, demonstrating that the financial framework we've been building since early 2025 is delivering. The last time we posted similar revenue was Q4 of 2023. Back then, we had a regulatory backdrop geared for mass EV adoption. We are preparing for GM's ramp as our primary OEM and we were building additional Aerogel capacity in Georgia. That quarter, we generated $9.1 million of adjusted EBITDA on $85 million of revenue and spent $28 million on CapEx.

Since then, we've taken more than $75 million out of our fixed cost structure, diversified supply across both of our segments, started delivering revenue to 7 European Thermal Barrier customers, and move to a more sustainable, capital-light and flexible manufacturing model. The results on essentially the same $85 million of revenue, we more than doubled adjusted EBITDA to $19.8 million and spent just $4.7 million on CapEx.

This is a fundamentally different Aspen, more profitable, less capital-intensive and backed by a healthy balance sheet. That positions us to grow share in our core markets, expand into adjacent markets and pursue new opportunities.

Now let's dive into the quarter. Third quarter revenue was $85.2 million, above the high end of our $65 million to $80 million guidance range and up 71% quarter-over-quarter or 17% year-over-year. Revenue included $39.9 million from Energy Industrial and $45.3 million from Thermal Barrier which included a $4.9 million of previously deferred revenue recognized in connection with the GM settlement received in Q1.

Energy Industrial revenue increased 96% quarter-over-quarter in line with our expectation of approximately $40 million as Subsea project revenue landed in the quarter. Compared with the third quarter of last year, Energy Industrial revenue increased 64%. Thermal Barrier revenue increased 54% quarter-over-quarter, driven by 2 factors: First, revenue from GM increased to $37.3 million from $23.7 million in Q2 as production rates align closer to sales.

Second, European Thermal Barrier revenue grew 38% quarter-over-quarter from $5.8 million to $8 million, marking the highest revenue generated from our European customers in a single quarter. Gross profit was $20.6 million or 24% gross margin, up from $3.3 million or 7% gross margin in Q2, as higher volumes absorb more of our fixed manufacturing costs. This includes $14.7 million of incremental costs from our -- from the April incident at East Providence, which are not indicative of normal operations.

While these costs are added back to adjusted EBITDA, they burden gross margin. Excluding these incident-related costs, non-GAAP adjusted gross profit was $35.3 million or 41% gross margin. Operating expenses were $27.7 million in Q3, including a $4.6 million loss on disposal of PPE related to Plant 2. We also incurred approximately $400,000 and incident-related charges within OpEx. Excluding these items, adjusted non-GAAP operating expenses were $22.7 million compared with $23.1 million in Q2.

GAAP net loss narrowed to $10.4 million in Q3 from $23.3 million in Q2. Adjusted EBITDA landed at $19.8 million, above our guidance range of $7 million to $15 million. To put this profitability into perspective, on $35 million additional revenues from Q2 to Q3, we generated $26 million incremental EBITDA. That's roughly 75% of additional revenue falling to the bottom line, which is impressive, but significantly higher than typical levels, primarily due to product mix and cost absorption.

For planning purposes, we continue to expect 50% to 60% of incremental revenue to fall to the bottom line. As a reminder, we add back incident-related charges to adjusted EBITDA in the quarter incurred and submit claims for these costs under our insurance policies. In Q3, these charges totaled $15.1 million. They consisted of expedited freight, professional fees and the incremental cost of temporarily sourcing certain products from our external manufacturing facility.

With higher volumes similar to Q3, these charges scale with increased activity. We are actively engaged in the claims process under our insurance policies and expect to continue incurring incident-related charges until the facility is restored, which we expect to complete in the first half of 2027.

Turning to liquidity. We ended the third quarter with $146.5 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, down $6.9 million from $153.4 million in Q2. Our net cash position remained consistent with prior quarter at just above $60 million.

Let's break down key cash flow items in Q3. During the quarter, we received $15 million of insurance proceeds related to property damage from the EP incident. $8.9 million flow through investing activities once cash was received, which settled the property damage receivable we recorded in Q2. The remaining $6.1 million was recorded within accrued expenses and flow-through operating activities.

Operating activities used $3.8 million of cash. Keep in mind, this is burdened by $15.1 million of incident-related charges that will be submitted under our insurance policies. So we'd see higher cash generation under normalized operations. Investing and financing activities used $3.2 million, driven by $4.7 million of CapEx, $8.9 million of insurance proceeds and $6.5 million of scheduled term loan amortization, leaving our term loan balance at $73 million to end the quarter.

Two final points on liquidity. First, I want to point out that our $146.5 million of cash does not include any potential insurance reimbursement for approximately $20 million of incident-related charges incurred year-to-date. Second, if we exclude incident-related charges, insurance proceeds and debt payments, we would have delivered approximately $10 million of cash on $85 million of revenues. We have more work to do to drive incremental cash flow, but these results are encouraging.

Turning to Slide 7. In its simplest form, Q4 could look similar to Q3 when excluding subsea project activity. As a reminder, we typically generate between $10 million to $20 million subsea revenue annually. We have momentum in both businesses going into the final quarter of the year. We are excited to see new opportunities landing for us with strong European Thermal Barrier activity, increased LNG orders and executing on our first data center infrastructure project. .

I'm excited to see the business becoming more sustainable as our full year assumptions around demand and supply have held up. We've seen GM production recover as inventory levels normalize. Our European Thermal Barrier programs are delivering increasing revenues and the Energy Industrial business has strong underlying drivers with approximately 20% year-over-year growth in our crosshairs.

For the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect total revenue to be between $60 million and $75 million. The low end reflects a conservative view, including GM production assumptions below the current IHS forecast. Continued strength in European Thermal Barrier and Energy Industrial building on Q3 gives us line of sight to the high end of that range. Breaking down our guide, we anticipate Energy Industrial revenues of approximately $35 million for the quarter. Our Q4 guide for the Thermal Barrier business has 2 primary drivers. We've assumed GM production at an annualized rate of approximately 70,000 to 90,000 vehicles in the quarter.

GM sourced approximately 170,000 vehicles annualized in Q3, and the current IHS forecast as GM producing approximately 110,000 vehicles annualized in Q4. We know Q4 has a component of seasonality and thus, our guide is conservatively below IHS. Our European Thermal Barrier customers generated $18.9 million of revenue through the third quarter. This is the ramp we've been waiting for. With one quarter to go, we've already generated the most European Thermal Barrier revenue in any year since we got into the EV business.

For the full year of 2026, we expect the European programs to reach approximately $30 million of revenue. As a reminder, these European programs have not reached serial production, but most of them will SOP in 2027. In fact, customer diversification is one of the most promising factors here. as 7 different OEMs across 8 different programs drive growth in 2027.

We continue to target meaningful growth over our 2026 outlook to approximately $50 million to $60 million of European Thermal Barrier revenues in 2027. Given the product mix included in our revenue range, we expect Q4 adjusted EBITDA to be between $5 million and $13 million, which includes adding back incident-related costs of approximately $5 million to $10 million.

Turning to our liquidity outlook. CapEx and scheduled debt payments should total around $10 million in Q4 when excluding East Providence restoration CapEx. Working capital will remain more variable, driven by where we produce and sell finished goods, safety stock builds tied to East Providence's recovery pace, and the timing of insurance proceeds, which are paid in arrears relative to the costs they cover.

Regardless of that timing, we remain confident we'll at least maintain our net cash position by year-end. When it comes to the sale of Plant 2 assets, we continue to actively market both the building and equipment. We have buyer interest in the building and continue to drive towards liquidity as we evaluate each option. On the equipment, we plan to begin a structured sale process to sell remaining assets over the coming months. The majority of the proceeds from the sale of Plant 2 assets are most likely a 2027 event. And as a reminder, would be applied directly to reduce our term debt on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

With ample levels of liquidity today, we still see flexibility to further delever the business while staying nimble to opportunistically invest in strategic growth initiatives. Pulling this all together, 3 things defined where Aspen stands today, a more profitable and less capital-intensive operating model. Commercial traction in both segments with new market opportunities and best and data center infrastructure projects and a strong balance sheet with net cash just above $60 million.

Our implied fiscal year 2026 outlook ranges from $233 million to $248 million revenue and $5.5 million to $13.5 million adjusted EBITDA. We've demonstrated how powerful our financial framework can be at $85 million in quarterly revenue and $19.8 million adjusted EBITDA and will carry that momentum going forward.

Don, back to you.

Donald Young

Thanks, Grant. Before we move to Q&A, I would like to reiterate our outlook for Q4. We expect revenue between $60 million and $75 million and adjusted EBITDA between $5 million and $13 million. We have the opportunity to be at the high end of those ranges. Our priorities are clear: scale, Energy Industrial, broaden PyroThin customer base, and advance adjacent opportunities where our technology can create value.

We are investing in innovation and in our customer-facing commercial teams to support that work. We believe this strategy is the best path to put our financial strength to work and create long-term shareholder value. Our Q3 performance and Q4 outlook provide significant momentum as we enter 2027 with a focus on growth and durable profitability.

With that, we'll open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Colin Roche of Oppenheimer.

Phần hỏi đáp

Colin Rusch

Congrats on the results as well. As you look at the European opportunity and the potential for significant upside here, I just want to get a sense of where the manufacturing footprint is headed and the finishing lines? Is it the sort of thing where it might make sense to think about ramping a finishing line in Europe to meet some of that demand?

Donald Young

Well, we do not have a plan to build a fabrication capability in Europe today. We are very pleased with our capabilities in Mexico, and we will focus our efforts there and our expertise there and our costs in that single facility. It is possible that we will create a shorter supply chain by having warehouse capability near our European customers. We're in discussions today around that idea. But today, we do not have a plan to spend capital building, fabrication capability in Europe.

Colin Rusch

Excellent. And then just getting into the data center opportunity. Could you just talk about the diversity of potential customers that you're working with at this point? And how we might start seeing some of that activity flowing into the P&L over the next couple of years?

Donald Young

Yes. We are -- we have, as I said, Collin, captured our first order in this space, and it is focused around the resource efficiency for these facilities. We are going to use this first order, the installation, it's a deliverable here in Q4 and immediate installation. And we're going to use this as a case study to demonstrate value of our product in these areas, and you will see us use that case study as we spread out our commercial team to capture more of these kinds of orders.

The opportunities are significant and broad based. And we believe that resource efficiency will be paramount to existing and new facilities as the data center effort spreads out. Obviously, with community consternation, we believe resource efficiency is a way of addressing that at least in part.

So we're in the early days of this. Having said that, the opportunity is here in Q4. We're delivering and installing. So we're operating at a pretty fast pace. We're very excited about the opportunity. It's a very natural extension of the work that we have done in Energy Industrial for a long time. So it's -- while it's new, it's not entirely new. It's very much a [ first cousin ] of the work that we've done for more than 10 years.

Colin Rusch

Okay. And just one clarifying question. Is it primarily thermal management, are you guys addressing any of the sound issues with some of these systems?

Donald Young

The work that we have captured to date is around energy efficiency and the thermal management aspect of it. We do have attributes that address acoustical opportunities as well, but that's not the focus of this particular order. .

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Eric Stine.

Eric Stine

So maybe just to clarify first. So it sounds like you did complete the 2 subsea projects in Q3. So I just want to confirm that, but then I would love to get more details, both on the significant project award that you referred to in your comments there first, but then also just talking about the significant project activity that you are seeing in Energy Industrial for 2027.

Donald Young

Well, so 2 parts on that, at least, yes, we did deliver as planned and as expected, our 2 projects in Q3 of this year. And that's why you saw that strong revenue in Q3 and a little bit of a tail off in Q4, although the other parts of our business are growing. It's just we all know that the subsea business tends to be lumpy.

Just to put it all in perspective, we expect and Grant said this in his comments, our history would suggest that we deliver between $10 million and $20 million of subsea revenue in a normal year. If you go back to 2024, we had some number closer to $30 million, and that's not a normal year. In 2025, we had something approximating 0. That is not a normal year. In 2026, we are falling in that normal $10 million to $20 million range. In 2027, with a project in hand, we anticipate, again, being in that $10 million to $20 million range for the year with respect to our subsea work.

The second part of your question on just the activity levels, we are seeing significant opportunity, especially on the LNG side. We are active here and throughout -- really, throughout 2026, and that's going to roll right into 2027 as well. Again, Subsea project in hand, that's great. We're confident we will be in that $10 million to $20 million range. There are plenty of opportunities for us to keep that rolling forward as well. .

Eric Stine

Okay. And then maybe just a quick follow-up. Just would love more details on the storage revenue, I know initial revenue here in 3Q. I mean, is this -- it looks like -- or it sounds like this may be a pretty similar product to what you're delivering hasn't necessarily required a whole lot of tuning this to that application, but would love more details?

Donald Young

Yes, thank you. We've been striving and articulating a goal that we would achieve initial revenue in 2026, and that's exactly what we did here in Q3. And you are correct. These thermal barriers are very much first cousins of the thermal barriers that we supply for mobility and for automotive OEMs. We believe that we will be able to convert these prototype materials, these evaluation materials. I would call them advanced evaluation materials at this point into specific projects and that they will be contributors to our revenue in 2027.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Pfingst.

Ryan Pfingst

Maybe just starting with a follow-up on Energy Industrial growth for '27. You mentioned a similar Subsea revenue outlook. But how should we be thinking about LNG and maintenance growth next year, perhaps relative to the growth we saw here in 2026?

Donald Young

Well, we're not quite prepared to provide an outlook for 2027, but we do. It is great to have to be confident that we will bring our Subsea business into its normal range as, again, as we said, $10 million to $20 million. We are seeing an acceleration in our LNG revenue and efforts. And so we think that's a growth opportunity for us, '26 to '27.

Look, the broadly speaking, the energy infrastructure space is growing, and we're going to participate in that growth. We are striving -- we're kind of head down right now, trying to reach that 20% growth here in 2026 as we've targeted. And we'll get to 2027 at our next earnings call. But we're moving into '27 with a lot of momentum. Let me just say that.

Ryan Pfingst

Got it. And then flipping over to Thermal Barrier. As you're delivering more product to the European OEMs. How are you thinking about potential upside to the current 2027 outlook? And are there potential wins out there that could come soon enough that they'd show up as soon as late next year?

Donald Young

Let me do the second part of that first. We are competing for additional European OEM design awards. History would say that those take -- you don't usually generate revenue in the same year that you win the award. I mean, not meaningful revenue at least, just prototype type revenue. So I wouldn't want you to count on that. But these companies are further along in their development and from a thermal protection point of view.

I think from what we're seeing is from the time of design award to the time of first revenue, that period is shortening. In terms of upside, look, I said in my script that we were going to be at the high end of that $20 million to $30 million for 2026 and that we were in a position to double that revenue in 2027. I think that's a solid way of thinking about it as we go into 2027.

Again, if you just take price times volume of our '27 agreements with these companies, it's a number considerably greater than $60 million. But again, I think our history tells us to be careful and conservative and that's what we're doing. We still think doubling the business year-over-year is impressive. So we're excited about that.

Grant Thoele

One just additional point on that, Ryan, is that I think with the European OEMs, we're obviously actively engaged on current programs, and we're also quoting new programs. And so whether or not it's a new award with a new OEM or a new award with a current OEM, I think, is another way to kind of think about it for '27.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chip Moore with ROTH Capital Partners. .

Unknown Analyst

I wanted to follow up on the energy storage opportunity. I guess, how should we think about the evaluation process. Is this -- how does that compare to automotive? I would assume it's less work to get spec-ed in, but testing requirements or time frame? Any thoughts there?

Donald Young

Well, the sequence is, again, with multiple leading partners in this space, we are providing materials with again, what I'm referring to as advanced evaluation materials. The next full step is, I would say, full qualification. And then our customer needs to go and win their business based on our product and their modules.

So those are the steps along the way, and we believe that we will get qualifications here in the near term and revenue beginning in 2027. Again, it's a broad opportunity for us. And again, we think achieving initial revenue was an excellent milestone that we had committed to earlier this year. We reached that, and now it's a matter of converting it into ongoing steady profitable revenue for us.

Unknown Analyst

Great. And maybe for my follow-up, just East Providence restart, just give us a little update there. It sounds like it's on track and implications for margins, I guess, really in back half of next year? .

Grant Thoele

Thanks, Chip. I think the way to think about East Providence right now is that we're fully manufacturing our aerogel blankets and we are actively restoring the oven where the incident occurred. And so we're on track for first half of next year to be completed with that restoration. And the team is working kind of day and night to make sure that we're putting in place all of the appropriate safety protocols and getting everything buttoned up as we should.

And the interesting thing about our margins so far this year, and that's why I kind of -- I've been citing the adjusted gross margin is that there's just so many incident-related charges that are, from a GAAP perspective, obviously, burdening gross margin, but we're adding those back to adjusted EBITDA.

So that's going to continue probably through the first 2 to 3 quarters of next year as we -- we're building inventory with EMF as well. And so we're making sure that when we do kind of flip back to -- and have that oven capability at East Providence that we are -- we have the inventory in place to do that, and we can do so in a very efficient way. So everything is going on track, and we're just proud of the team for doing all the work they're doing down there at the plant.

Donald Young

Chip, I think one of the interesting things that Grant had in his script earlier today was really related to cash and the fact that we have incurred these business interruption charges, I believe you cited approximately $20 million.

Again, from a cash point of view, we have not received those insurance proceeds, which we are filing claims for. And so we'll work through that process. But just from a cash point of view, it is interesting to note that we have incurred those cash expenditures without reimbursement to date. Again, we're confident that we will have a good claims process, let me say, and capture that in the quarter to come.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Don for closing remarks.

Donald Young

Thank you, Kathleen. We appreciate your interest in Aspen Aerogels and look forward to sharing our fourth quarter results with you in early February. Be well, and have a good day. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.