Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của SiTime (SITM): Doanh thu tăng vọt nhờ TPD và các trung tâm dữ liệu AI thúc đẩy tăng trưởng

Những điểm nhấn chính

• SiTime công bố doanh thu quý 3/2026 đạt 298,7 triệu USD, tăng 257% so với cùng kỳ năm trước và tăng 90% so với quý trước. Đây là quý trọn vẹn đầu tiên công ty hợp nhất bộ phận Renesas Timing Products Division (TPD) vừa thâu tóm.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp non-GAAP đạt 70,7%, trong khi biên lợi nhuận hoạt động mở rộng lên 43%. EPS non-GAAP đạt 4,01 USD, tăng 360% so với cùng kỳ năm trước.
• Doanh thu cốt lõi của SiTime tăng 154% lên 212,4 triệu USD. Trong đó, mảng Truyền thông, Doanh nghiệp và Trung tâm dữ liệu (CED) dẫn đầu đà tăng trưởng với doanh thu đạt 127,3 triệu USD, tăng 202% so với cùng kỳ năm trước.
• TPD mang lại 86,3 triệu USD doanh thu, tăng 67% so với quý 3/2025 khi còn thuộc Renesas. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết hoạt động bán chéo giữa hai danh mục sản phẩm đã bắt đầu được triển khai.
• Trong quý 4/2026, ban lãnh đạo đưa ra dự phóng doanh thu từ 331 triệu USD đến 341 triệu USD, biên lợi nhuận gộp khoảng 70% (cộng hoặc trừ 1 điểm phần trăm) và EPS non-GAAP đạt khoảng 4,76 USD tại mức trung vị của khoảng doanh thu dự phóng.
• Phễu cơ hội kinh doanh của SiTime đạt 10 tỷ USD, tăng gấp 4 lần kể từ năm 2025. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết phần cơ hội liên quan đến bán dẫn đã tăng gấp 8 lần lên hơn 4 tỷ USD, dù phần lớn doanh thu liên quan dự kiến sẽ chỉ bắt đầu tăng tốc vào năm 2028 và 2029.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Trừ khi có ghi chú khác, các thước đo về khả năng sinh lời đều là số liệu non-GAAP.

Số ngày thu tiền bình quân (DSO) tăng thêm 10 ngày so với quý trước lên 61 ngày, chủ yếu do thời điểm thu tiền của TPD. Hàng tồn kho tăng lên 112 triệu USD nhằm đáp ứng nhu cầu dự kiến trong quý 4, trong khi chi phí vốn đạt 11,2 triệu USD.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Doanh thu mảng CED tăng 202% so với cùng kỳ năm trước và tăng 26% so với quý trước lên 127,3 triệu USD. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết mảng kết nối và mạng—bao gồm module quang học, cáp điện chủ động và các sản phẩm liên quan—chiếm khoảng một nửa doanh thu mảng này, phần còn lại gắn liền với rack tủ mạng, thiết bị chuyển mạch, card tăng tốc, CPU, máy chủ và GPU.

SiTime nhận thấy hàm lượng linh kiện định thời sẽ gia tăng khi các giải pháp quang học trung tâm dữ liệu tiến gần hơn đến khối tính toán. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết XPO có thể bổ sung chip tạo xung nhịp bên cạnh bộ dao động, NPO có thể giúp hàm lượng bộ dao động tăng gấp đôi, và CPO có thể tạo ra hàm lượng định thời cao gấp ba lần nhờ các chip tạo xung nhịp có giá trị cao hơn. Module quang học kết hợp cũng có thể hỗ trợ các sản phẩm định thời có giá bán trung bình (ASP) cao hơn tới năm lần. Công ty ghi nhận các hợp đồng thiết kế thành công ở cả XPO, quang học kết hợp, NPO và CPO.

Doanh thu mảng Ô tô, Công nghiệp và Hàng không Vũ trụ - Quốc phòng đạt 35,5 triệu USD, tăng 76% so với cùng kỳ năm trước và tăng 43% so với quý trước. Phễu cơ hội kinh doanh của SiTime đạt 900 triệu USD trong lĩnh vực hàng không vũ trụ và quốc phòng, gần 1 tỷ USD trong lĩnh vực ô tô và 1,4 tỷ USD trong lĩnh vực công nghiệp. Các con số này đại diện cho các cơ hội tiềm năng chứ không phải doanh thu đã ghi nhận.

Doanh thu mảng Di động, IoT và Người tiêu dùng tăng 133% so với cùng kỳ năm trước và tăng 58% so với quý trước lên 49,5 triệu USD. Khách hàng tiêu dùng lớn nhất của SiTime đóng góp 42,7 triệu USD, nhờ việc mở rộng sản phẩm modem trên nhiều nền tảng bổ sung. Công ty cũng đề cập đến các thiết kế cho kính thông minh AI và mặt dây chuyền AI dự kiến sẽ mở rộng quy mô sản xuất vào năm 2027, sử dụng bộ cộng hưởng Titan và bộ dao động của SiTime.

Cơ cấu doanh thu của TPD có hơn 80% đến từ mảng CED, với khoảng 15% đến 20% thuộc mảng công nghiệp và ô tô. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết danh mục kết hợp giữa chip tạo xung nhịp và bộ dao động đang tạo ra cơ hội bán chéo ở cả hai tệp khách hàng. Tại các khách hàng lớn nhất của SiTime, dự báo doanh thu năm 2027 của công ty đã tăng từ hai đến năm lần sau thương vụ sáp nhập, chủ yếu phản ánh các hợp đồng thiết kế thành công và tính bổ trợ giữa các danh mục sản phẩm.

SiTime cũng công bố đợt chia tách cổ phiếu theo tỷ lệ 3:1. Các cổ đông có tên trong danh sách chốt quyền vào ngày 3/12/2026 sẽ nhận thêm hai cổ phiếu cho mỗi cổ phiếu đang nắm giữ, và giao dịch sau điều chỉnh chia tách dự kiến sẽ bắt đầu vào ngày 7/12/2026.

Dự báo từ ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng vốn lưu động và dòng tiền sẽ cải thiện trong quý 4 khi thời điểm thu hồi công nợ bình thường hóa và quá trình tích hợp đạt tiến triển.

Hướng tới năm 2027, công ty dự kiến chi phí hoạt động sẽ tăng dần qua từng quý khi hoàn thiện bộ máy tài chính, nhân sự, pháp lý và bán hàng xoay quanh TPD, đồng thời tiếp tục tài trợ cho hoạt động phát triển sản phẩm. Ban lãnh đạo cũng kỳ vọng đà tăng tốc trong các thiết kế điện thoại thông minh sẽ giúp giảm bớt tính chu kỳ thông thường giữa quý 4 và quý 1 trong giai đoạn chuyển giao từ năm 2026 sang năm 2027.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• TPD tiếp tục chịu ảnh hưởng bởi tình trạng thắt chặt nguồn cung wafer và chuỗi cung ứng nói chung. Ban lãnh đạo dự báo những hạn chế này sẽ kéo dài sang năm 2027, dù các vấn đề nghiêm trọng nhất sẽ hạ nhiệt khi SiTime can thiệp sâu hơn vào chuỗi cung ứng vào đầu năm 2027.
• Phễu cơ hội kinh doanh mảng bán dẫn vượt mức 4 tỷ USD, nhưng ban lãnh đạo dự kiến chỉ một phần tương đối nhỏ đóng góp vào doanh thu năm 2027. Phần lớn giai đoạn tăng tốc được kỳ vọng sẽ diễn ra vào năm 2028 và 2029.
• Tăng trưởng theo quý của mảng CED có thể không đồng đều do thời điểm giao hàng cho các khách hàng lớn có thể làm dịch chuyển doanh thu giữa các kỳ. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết tính chu kỳ của năm 2027 hiện khó dự đoán.
• Khách hàng tiêu dùng lớn nhất đóng góp 42,7 triệu USD vào doanh thu quý 3, khiến tiến độ tăng tốc sản phẩm của đối tác này trở thành yếu tố quan trọng tác động đến kết quả mảng Di động, IoT và Người tiêu dùng.
• Dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh trong quý 3 ghi nhận mức âm do thời điểm thu tiền của TPD và việc đầu tư vào hàng tồn kho, dù ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng tình hình sẽ cải thiện trong quý 4.

Điểm nhấn phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết quá trình chuyển dịch từ các sản phẩm quang học 800 gigabit sang 1,6 terabit sẽ hỗ trợ gia tăng sản lượng, thị phần và giá bán trung bình (ASP). SiTime có mức độ hiện diện tương đối hạn chế ở các sản phẩm 400 gigabit, trong khi mảng kinh doanh 800 gigabit đã tăng trưởng hơn gấp bốn lần. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng sẽ có một đợt tăng trưởng tiếp theo ở phân khúc 1,6 terabit và nhận thấy thêm cơ hội ở phân khúc 3,2 terabit.

Về các quan hệ đối tác bán dẫn, SiTime đã thành lập một đội ngũ toàn cầu chuyên trách hướng đến các công ty chip hàng đầu. Doanh thu có thể đến từ việc bán sản phẩm trực tiếp, thiết kế tham chiếu và các giải pháp đóng gói tích hợp trong tương lai. Công ty cho biết các mối quan hệ này cho phép họ tham gia sớm hơn vào các quyết định về kiến trúc phần cứng, nhưng phần lớn doanh thu từ phễu cơ hội liên quan dự kiến sẽ chưa xuất hiện trước năm 2028 và 2029.

Về vấn đề đồng bộ hóa chính xác, ban lãnh đạo cho biết xu hướng dịch chuyển từ mức sai số microgiây sang hàng chục nanogiây hiện vẫn chủ yếu mang tính định hướng và khó có khả năng đóng góp đáng kể trong năm 2026 hoặc 2027. Các ứng dụng trong ngắn hạn dự kiến chủ yếu nằm ở card mạng (NIC) và bộ dao động thạch anh bù nhiệt (TCXO) độ chính xác cao được sử dụng trên các nền tảng tăng tốc.

Ban lãnh đạo đánh giá quá trình tích hợp TPD đang tiến triển tốt. Những hạn chế về nguồn cung trong ngắn hạn biểu hiện rõ hơn ở TPD do SiTime vẫn đang phụ thuộc vào các dịch vụ chuyển tiếp từ Renesas, trong khi những hạn chế ở mảng kinh doanh truyền thống của SiTime được nhận định là vẫn trong tầm kiểm soát.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to SiTime's Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, November 4, 2026. I would now like to turn the call over to Brett Perry of Shelton Group Investor Relations. Brett, please go ahead.

Brett Perry

Thank you, Kelly, and good afternoon to those on the call. Welcome to SiTime's Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining us on today's call are SiTime's Chief Executive Officer, Rajesh Vashist; and Chief Financial Officer, Beth Howe. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that during today's call, management will make forward-looking statements regarding our business, financial performance, market opportunities, growth strategy and future operations.

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed today. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to today's earnings press release and the company's filings with the SEC, including our most recent Form 10-K and subsequent Form 10-Q filings. SiTime undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should be considered as a supplement to and not a substitute for measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are included in today's earnings press release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of SiTime's website at www.sitime.com. Lastly, unless otherwise noted, all financial comparisons discussed on today's call are on a year-over-year basis. With that, it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to SiTime's CEO. Rajesh, please go ahead.

Rajesh Vashist

Thank you, Brett. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'm delighted to say that on July 1, we completed the acquisition of Renesas' Timing Products Division, or TPD. Q3 was our full -- first full quarter of consolidated results. I'll break out TPD results today to give greater visibility into the performance of both businesses. SiTime had an outstanding third quarter. Combined revenue was $298.7 million, up 257% year-over-year. Gross margin was 70.7%, up 11.9 percentage points, and we expect it to remain in this range. Operating margin was 43%, up 25 percentage points, and EPS was $4.01, up 360%.

When we announced the acquisition, we said it would accelerate our path to $1 billion in annual revenue, and our Q3 results put us above that level on an annualized run rate basis. Our core SiTime business is strong and continues to deliver remarkable growth. Q3 revenue was $212.4 million, up 154% year-over-year. Our core CED business, or Communications, Enterprise and Datacenter, again led our growth with revenues up 202% year-over-year. Our other BUs also grew more than 75%, grew at least 55%, and 2 regions grew at triple-digit rates.

Demand is strong. Book-to-bill increased from Q2, average order size grew, and total distributor inventory remained below our target. Our visibility into 2027 and 2028 continues to improve with significant growth in backlog, average design-in value, and the size of our funnel. Our total funnel now stands at $10 billion and has quadrupled since 2025. TPD also delivered exceptional growth, exceeding expectations. Revenue was $86.3 million, up 67% from Q3 2025 when the business was part of Renesas. The integration has gone exceptionally well across the teams, customers, and road map.

The TPD team is happy to be part of a company that shares their passion and focus on timing. We see positive responses in engagement and retention across TPD locations. With the addition of TPD, we can provide more complete timing solutions, increasing our content in customer systems and making SiTime a more strategic partner. At our largest accounts, our 2027 revenue forecast has increased by 2 to 5x. Moreover, our greater focus is already creating new opportunities, and the pull-through that we envisioned is happening in both directions.

In CED, rapidly changing data center architectures are creating new opportunities for SiTime. Optics is moving closer to compute, stitching together tens of thousands of GPUs with the bandwidth and latency needed to operate as one system. For SiTime, this creates 2 growth vectors: more complex optical modules and optics coming directly into the compute fabric. First, the new optical module generations are ramping rapidly, and each one raises the bar with higher frequencies, lower jitter, and greater resilience, all areas where SiTime excels.

Importantly, these generations overlap shipping at the same time, and new module types create additional timing opportunities with XPO, or extra dense pluggable optics, adding clocks along oscillators, doubling our content. Between data centers, coherent optics provides the bandwidth to connect large AI workloads. These modules require extremely low jitter timing in the gigahertz range, where our ASP can increase by up to 5x. Second, when optics comes closer to the compute fabric, there is increasing bandwidth with lower power and latency. NPO, or near-packaged optics, drives up to 2x more oscillators content, and CPO, or co-packaged optics, drives up to 3x more timing content with high-value clocks.

SiTime today has design wins with leading customers in XPO, coherent optics, NPO, and CPO. The trend is clear, more bandwidth requires more precision timing. In our other businesses, Mobile, IoT, and Consumer grew 133% year-over-year, driven by our largest consumer customer expanding its modem product across more platforms. At the same time, AI is moving from the cloud into personal devices. That requires more sensing, connectivity, localization, and always-on processing. Together, these trends increase the need for precise low-power timing, and we are seeing new designs in AI smart glasses and pendants that will ramp in 2027 using both Titan resonators and our oscillators.

In our Aerospace, Defense, Automotive, and Industrial BU, our opportunities are expanding as systems become more autonomous, connected, and mission-critical. In aerospace and defense, our funnel has now reached $900 million, driven by radar, counter-drone systems, and resilient alternatives to GPS. Automotive is approaching $1 billion with increasing timing content in zonal architectures and autonomous commercial vehicles. And finally, industrial has reached $1.4 billion, led by physical AI applications such as robotics and smart grid. As these systems continue to become more intelligent and autonomous, real-time decision-making and synchronization become critical, significantly increasing SiTime's timing content per system.

A few quarters ago, we talked about the significant opportunities that come with deepening our relationships with leading semiconductor companies. We have now built a dedicated global sales team to engage customers when critical architecture and timing decisions are being made years ahead of production. This gives us early insight into future requirements and helps us develop differentiated solutions across AI training, inference, mobile, automotive, and other markets. As a consequence, our semiconductor funnel has grown 8x to more than $4 billion, creating a substantial future revenue opportunity.

Our rapid organic growth and the TPD acquisition have structurally changed SiTime. Here are 3 changes that define the new SiTime. First, our financial model is stronger with higher gross margins, sustainable operating margins of 40%, and broad-based growth across every BU. Our seasonality is less pronounced as CED becomes a larger portion of our overall business. Second, our relationships with customers are deeper and more strategic. Importantly, this early engagement allows us to influence decisions around new concepts like chiplets, synchronization, and trusted time, where better precision timing can improve performance and availability.

We expect that these applications will create a new SAM of $2.5 billion by 2030. And third, we now have the scale to innovate faster. With the industry's largest team dedicated solely to timing, we can develop more products in parallel and extend the precision timing leadership. For all the progress we've made, we believe we're still in the early stages of what is possible. Our ambition remains clear. We want SiTime to be the trusted timing adviser to our customers and the default choice for precision timing in the world's most important electronic systems. I'll now turn the call over to Beth, our CFO, to review the financial details. Beth?

Beth Howe

Thanks, Rajesh. Today, I'll walk through our third quarter 2026 results and provide our outlook for the fourth quarter. As a reminder, my remarks focus on non-GAAP financial results, which are reconciled to GAAP in our press release. This quarter marks an inflection point in SiTime's evolution. As our business continues to scale, we now have a broader revenue base, a richer mix of higher-value products, and greater operating leverage. And with the addition of TPD, we are further solidifying our leadership in precision timing.

This progress is reflected in our third quarter revenue growth, gross margin expansion, and meaningful improvement in net income. At the same time, we are continuing to invest in R&D and go-to-market to support the growth opportunities ahead. With that context, total revenue for the quarter was $298.7 million, up 257% year-over-year and up 90% sequentially. The newly acquired TPD business delivered revenue of $86.3 million, an increase of 67% compared with a year ago when the business was part of Renesas.

Excluding TPD, revenue was $212.4 million, up 154% year-over-year, of which Communications, Enterprise and Datacenter delivered revenue of $127.3 million, up 202% year-over-year and up 26% sequentially. Automotive, Industrial and Aerospace Defense generated revenue of $35.5 million, up 76% year-over-year and up 43% sequentially. Mobile, IoT and Consumer revenue was $49.5 million, up 133% year-over-year and up 58% sequentially, reflecting strong sequential growth in our large consumer customer that contributed $42.7 million in the quarter.

Third quarter gross margin was 70.7%, up 11.9 percentage points year-over-year and 3.6 percentage points sequentially. The primary driver was favorable product mix with a greater contribution from higher-value, higher-margin products in our core SiTime portfolio as well as the addition of TPD. Importantly, this improvement reflects the products we are selling rather than price increases. Better manufacturing absorption from higher revenue also contributed. Operating expenses were $81.6 million, consisting of $48.6 million in R&D and $33 million in SG&A.

Operating expenses increased $29.5 million sequentially, in line with the outlook I provided in August. We continue to invest in the engineering capacity, product development, and go-to-market needed to support our growth while maintaining discipline on our overall cost structure. Operating income increased to $129.5 million or 43% of revenue compared with 34% of revenue in Q2 and 18% a year ago. Other income was $0.8 million. As a result, non-GAAP net income increased over 5x to $130.3 million, and non-GAAP earnings per share were $4.01.

These results reflect strong revenue growth, favorable product mix, and meaningful operating leverage even as we continue to fund our product road map and invest for growth. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. DSO was 61 days in Q3, up 10 days from Q2, primarily reflecting the timing of collections related to TPD with those collections received in early Q4. Inventory increased to $112 million to support expected Q4 demand. Together, these working capital movements contributed to the $6.6 million use of operating cash in Q3. We expect working capital and cash flow to improve in Q4 as collection timing normalizes and integration progresses.

Capital expenditures for the quarter were $11.2 million. We ended the quarter with $324 million in cash and short-term investments, providing significant liquidity and flexibility to continue investing in the business. Now looking ahead to Q4, the TPD integration is progressing extremely well. And going forward, we will provide our outlook and report our results on a combined basis. For Q4, we expect revenue of $331 million to $341 million, with both the core SiTime and TPD growing sequentially Q3 to Q4.

We expect gross margin to remain around 70%, plus or minus 1 point, reflecting the expected mix of the business. Operating expenses are expected to remain roughly flat with Q3. We expect interest income of $2 million to $2.5 million and a diluted share count of approximately 32.8 million shares. At the midpoint of the range, we would expect Q4 non-GAAP EPS to be approximately $4.76 per share.

And finally, today, we announced a 3-for-1 stock split of SiTime common stock to make our stock more accessible to a broader base of investors. The shareholders of record at the close of business on December 3, 2026, will receive 2 additional shares for every outstanding share held on the record date, and trading will begin on a split-adjusted basis on Monday, December 7, 2026. With that, I'll hand the call back to the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg of Stifel.

Phần hỏi đáp

Tore Svanberg

Rajesh, you gave us some great detail there on the exposure to AI data center within the various networks, especially on optical. I'm just curious from where you sit, where do you expect the content to increase the most for your products, whether it's clocks or oscillators? I mean it sounds like there's a step function in NPO. My understanding, there's a further step function then as we start to see CPO get deployed?

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. I think there's -- I think to answer your question, Tore, it's across the oscillators as well as the clocks. So one of the easiest ways to say it is my example of the low-jitter gigahertz products, they typically are going to be at a higher price, maybe 3, maybe 4x. So a gigahertz oscillator may cost $6 to $8, whereas a megahertz oscillator might be around $1 to $2. So right there, there's an up level in pricing.

The other thing that happens is that in NPO, for example, the number of DSPs are much greater. And wherever there are more DSPs, there are more oscillators. And there certainly is more clock being used in the NPOs as well, where, as you know, the electrical part of the switch is -- the optics are closer, and we have some design wins around that as well.

So overall, this is a question that's been asked a few times about what is the impact when there is less copper whenever that happens and more optics. And we have always maintained that SiTime benefits to the upside in this trend. And so we're confirming that with some more detail here.

Tore Svanberg

As my follow-up, I'm very intrigued with the work that you've been doing with semiconductor companies, and I think you mentioned the funnel growing 8x to about $4 billion. Could you maybe unpack a little bit how that works? I mean, do you get paid by the semiconductor companies for using your chips? Is this perhaps more of like a reference design? And when do we start to see that becoming or that $4 billion funnel materializing into more revenues?

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. So as I've mentioned before, I've talked in previous quarters and said that that's one area where we wanted to invest more money. And my point that I was making was that we now have a fully funded team of several people that are calling on anywhere from the top 10 to top 20 semiconductor companies and going even beyond that. So the answer is all of the above to how do we make revenue. First of all, we make revenue directly with some of the customers. In some of these cases, we're directly twinned with the product and sold to the semiconductor company itself and then they sell it.

The second part is in the reference design, of course, we get to play in that. And third, there is this co-packaging piece going on, which is going on at a relatively little pace or low pace, which we expect to ramp up in '28 and '29 in particular. So given the time deadlines here, none of this or relatively smaller piece of this $4 billion funnel happens in '27.

Most of it starts to ramp in '28 and '29. And we just wanted to say that there is another aspect, and that is when we engage with semiconductor companies, the conversation is extremely detailed and collaborative in changing architectures to recognize unique products from SiTime. And this gets us embedded further, but it also makes us more consequential to our customers. So I think it's just an amazing win for us, and I'm really glad that we have the team up and running.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton of Needham & Company.

Quinn Bolton

Rajesh, I wanted to start with the TPD business. I know that segment has been fairly wafer constrained. I wondering if you could give us an update on how you see wafer availability for that business? Do you still expect constraints to last into perhaps as far as middle of next year? Or have you been successful with Renesas in increasing wafer support for the TPD business?

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. So I think in general, constraints will continue through the coming year through 2027. It's the severity of the constraints that we have been very concerned about in this handoff not wanting to constrain our customers, frankly, our mutual customers because Renesas continues to sell to them and wanting to make sure that there are no severe consequences, lines down and such. So with that, we've been quite successful both with our team as well as the support from Renesas.

But in general, as I said once before, we expect that we will get closer to the supply chain ourselves by Q1, and we'll start to resolve them. The more severe issues exiting this quarter and getting into Q1, Q2, I think we should be in significantly better shape. However, I've said that is that there is constraints in the supply chain, particularly on the wafers because of the increased demand. Frankly, we -- neither we nor TPD had expected this huge surge in demand, and we're seeing significant growth, all to the good, but really something for us to manage, which I'm pretty confident we will by early part of next year, 2027.

Quinn Bolton

And then a follow-up maybe for Beth. Just wondering, it sounds like the book-to-bill continues to strengthen. Wondering if you could give us a sense how far out do you have visibility or backlog? And what are lead times doing on the products? Are they increasing? Are they stable? Just any sort of comments on lead times and visibility?

Beth Howe

Yes. So we have exceptional visibility heading into 2027. I think we've got a strong design win funnel, and we've got a strong backlog going into the year. So we feel very well positioned as we kind of finish up '26 and going into '27. When you think about lead time, we're managing the lead times. As Rajesh was just talking about in the supply-constrained environment, it's something that the ops team works really hard with our suppliers on in order to ensure that we can get products, and we're managing through it, I think, is the best way to frame it.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Suji Desilva of ROTH Capital.

Sujeeva De Silva

I think I heard you say the Renesas product business, you gave a year-over-year number, even though I know it's included for the first time this quarter. Did you say 67% year-over-year? And if you did, what end markets are the key drivers there? And how is that exposure different from SiTime's core end market exposure? Just to understand the sustainability of Renesas.

Beth Howe

Thanks, Suji. So you're correct. The TPD business grew 67% year-over-year, similar to comparable to when they were part of Renesas. The mix of that business is overwhelmingly probably 80-plus percent in what we would call our Comms, Enterprise, Datacenter and the other roughly 15% to 20% is in Industrial and Automotive for them. So that's the kind of mix of the businesses. And like our business, over the last year plus, it has moved a bit more. They previously were more like 75/25. So it's moved a bit more in toward the CED, not unexpectedly, given the growth in the market.

Sujeeva De Silva

Okay. That's helpful color there. And then I know when you guys did the acquisition merger, you talked about Renesas' customer base as being an exciting part of the opportunity here and cross-sell synergies as they had established Fortune 100 customers. Any near-term kind of early updates there, Rajesh, on how those discussions are going, how the cross-sell opportunity looks to you? Is it going to take time? Or is that moving along at a nice pace?

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. No, that's what I sort of hinted at in my prepared remarks, Suji, that the focus has created new opportunities and the pull-through or the drag along, if you will, is happening in both directions. I think it's only been a quarter, and I think we've already seen the benefit of selling into the TPD customers that some of them they were very strong at. And I think the reverse where we have taken them in with the clocking products into customers that we were stronger at, I think, is already happening. I think clocking is clearly more architectural, more "strategic" to customers -- so that probably helps us, the old SiTime more, but it's also true that we are able to take them significantly into some of the new architectures, which will pay off in the future. So it's really working exactly the way I thought, including with the integration.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gary Mobley.

Gaurav Saini

Gaurav Saini from StoneX on behalf of Gary Mobley. I just wanted to ask specifically about the design win pipeline. We're starting to hear more customers shift towards precision timing and away from quartz. So I'd love to get a sense at, a, how has your guys' opportunity pipeline changed over, call it, the last 12 to 24 months? And b, how are you sort of handling that on the resource side, both your own sales team and then also your distribution network? I'd love to get some color on that.

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. So the -- as I said, we've seen quite a surge in demand. I mean, especially when you widen the aperture from 12 to 24 months, there's no doubt that the increase in demand has been amazing. We can now see not just into -- and right, sitting here in '26, not only do we see into '27, but we can see into '28 as well. And there are new architectures that I talked about, whether it's with semiconductor companies or hyperscalers that we can see. That is also true, by the way, in the non-CED business.

I think we have opportunities in military, Aerospace, Defense, and Industrial. We talked about robotics. We talked about the smart grid. I think, as you know, in Automotive, it's a little bit of a longer cycle, and we're starting to see some of those longer cycles play out now in our favor. So I think we have significant breadth coming in that. And so -- our funnel is larger. Our number of salespeople and FAEs is significantly larger. So we probably have the largest sales force now calling on it worldwide with special emphasis in China and in EMEA. So that's helping us.

As far as distribution goes, as you know, we are fulfilling through distribution. We are a design win company that chooses to basically sell through. We don't have a distribution business that's very large, that's selling into stocking and then selling out of stocking programs. It's very much made for the customer, program to the customer, design for the customer thing. So our distributor inventory is at very healthy levels, and we are very happy with that.

Gaurav Saini

Got it. And then just my follow-up. I know you guys mentioned core CED grew over 200% year-over-year, which is great to see. So I just wanted to double-click on that. How has the mix shifted, call it, again, over the past few years between CPUs, GPUs, custom xPUs? And I know you guys also mentioned optical modules. Just trying to get a better understanding of whether this has moved away from being GPU-centric and become much more diversified.

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. I don't think we see a big change in that. We still see the connectivity part, the networking part as a very strong piece, call it, around 50% of our business is around modules, AECs, connectivity. But at the same time, on the rack side of the business, our business continues to grow with the switches, with the accelerator cards, with the level of inference where we get 2x to 3x more in the CPU and the servers and continued strong business in the GPU. So it's kind of like a 50-50 thing. And both of those markets continue to grow solidly.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sajal Dogra of Rosenblatt Securities.

Sajal Dogra

Congrats on the great results. So you said on your '27 revenue forecast that your largest customer accounts have increased 2x to 5x. So what does that compare against? And how does that increase? Like does that refer to TPD? Does it core SiTime? Or is it the combined portfolio? And can you give us a sense of the incremental dollars? And how much of this is already backed by firm customer orders?

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. Thank you, Sajal. Welcome to SiTime. Basically, what we are seeing -- yes, we're basically seeing a significant increase in design wins. So most of that refers back to the design win side of the business. And what we wanted to do was give our investors a flavor of how strong our pipeline for design wins is and how strong our funnel is. And so all of that refers to that, and it's all over in all areas really across the business. And maybe Beth wanted to say -- to add something to that.

Beth Howe

Yes. And in addition, it also points to the complementary nature of our TPD plus SiTime. As we talked about when we did the deal, there were a number of customers where they had a large installation and maybe were less of a customer for SiTime and some of SiTime's larger customers where TPD had less of a presence.

And so one of the things that we're talking about here is this combination of now having TPD and SiTime. You're seeing that complementary nature in that increase in our forecast as we bring these 2 companies together and some of those customers where maybe SiTime hadn't had much of a presence previously, we now have a much larger presence.

Sajal Dogra

Got it. And so as my follow-up, I guess at OCP, we heard architects discussing a move from basically microsecond of synchronization error towards tens of nanoseconds. So in the design wins for '27, where does that first translate into a SiTime socket? Is it on the NIC side? Is it on the compute tray? Or is that still like on the switch? And how much of that stuff is shipping in current design wins versus the next generation?

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. Very little of that will be shipping in the '26 or even in the '27 time frame, Sajal. I think that's all directional. And I was at some part of it, and it's a very kind of a thoughtful conversation on where the system is headed. But I think directionally, you're correct. When it gets to that level of precision, I think there's almost nobody else who can supply what we are talking about with the kinds of latencies that we're talking about.

Clearly, optics, the greater move into optics is going to drive more of that. And I think there's some innovative architectures that are happening now, but I wouldn't expect much beyond NICs and TCXOs from SiTime connecting, right? So the NIC cards connect with the high-precision TCXOs and there's just more use case of them on the accelerator parts.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole Kozhukhov of Morgan Stanley. I'm not hearing a response at the moment.

Beth Howe

Let's move on and we can come back to Nicole.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jim Schneider of Goldman Sachs.

James Schneider

I know you don't want to guide more than 1 quarter in advance, but I was wondering if you could help us understand at least the specific design win in the smartphone segment at one of your large customers, what sort of seasonality will that have, if any, heading into the March quarter? Or would we think that some of the model ramps that are happening at the beginning of the year would more than offset that typical seasonality? Just wanted to make sure we're level set on that.

Beth Howe

Jim, this is Beth. Thanks for the question. So as we ramp that design win, I do think it will modulate the normal typical Q4 to Q1 seasonality a bit for -- at least for this '26 to '27 year.

James Schneider

And then as we -- I mean, I guess, as we think about the CED business over the course of '27 and start to model that, how would you encourage us to think about the linearity of that revenue? Because I know there's many moving parts between your own business ramping with the design wins and also the Renesas business, presumably a little bit less supply constrained. And maybe give us -- if you can address anything about the supply constraint end of it, that would be great.

Beth Howe

So as we think about seasonality in CED, I think given all of the dynamics of that market and the way AI is evolving over the last many quarters, I think it's hard to necessarily talk about seasonality per se, but probably '27 looks a bit like '26, but I think it's really hard to predict the seasonality because it can come in the form of with these big customers, a little bit of revenue shifting from one quarter to another depending on when exactly we ship can move kind of those -- the growth percentages there. But '27 probably looks comparable to '26 from that perspective as we continue to see sequential growth in CED. So that's kind of as we see it today.

Rajesh Vashist

And to add to that, in terms of tightness of supply, I think that in the short term, in Q3 and Q4, we've struggled more with the supply chain from the acquisition of TPD because we've had to rely on TSAs from Renesas. And so as we have gotten closer to the business, trying to understand the specific needs has taken a little bit of time given the supply chain that we have had to deal with.

As to the old core business, if you will, of SiTime, the old business of SiTime, sure, we have some supply constraints, but nothing that we can't manage. In general, we think we'll have managed all of this by the start of Q1. And certainly, the more stark parts of the shortages for the TPD business will probably be handled through this quarter, and we'll be in positive space in Q1.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Caso of Wolfe Research.

Christopher Caso

Question is about the diversification of the CED business. And I know that your share and your content isn't equal across all the platforms, but I know you're making some efforts in order to do so. Can you comment on that? And I mean, considering that some of the custom xPU solutions, we're expecting to probably grow faster than some of the merchant solutions over the next year. What does that mean for the CED business as you go into '27?

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. I think -- thanks, Chris. I think we expect that to have a pretty strong impact on growth because we are seeing multiple design wins in that space. So we expect that to do very well in CED in general. What we wanted to give was a sense in the -- when we talked about the funnel was a sense of how big it is and how pervasive across all applications it is, whether it is in the GPU, the CPU part, whether it is in NICs and switches, but also in the connectivity pieces.

And the 1 plus 1 equals 3 part, but getting the oscillators and the clocking solutions together of old SiTime and TPD for the new SiTime, I think it makes our portfolio complete and allows us to win designs against people who have been in the clocking business and gives us significant conversation around architectures that we didn't have. So it's really coming through for us the way we expected it to.

Christopher Caso

Got it. As a follow-up, Beth, I know you've spoken about the necessity now that you brought the TPD business on to kind of fill in some of the things that didn't come along with TPD such as sales. What should we expect for OpEx as we go through the next year as you make some of those hires and you integrate that TPD business and fill in some of those blanks?

Beth Howe

You're absolutely right, Chris. When we acquired TPD, we primarily acquired engineers, a few FAEs and a few folks in operations, and we're building out the infrastructure to support that business, whether it be finance, HR, legal, even building up a sales team as well to support that.

So that -- growing that infrastructure combined with supporting the growth of our own business, I would expect that we continue to see kind of sequential increases in OpEx from Q4 to Q1, Q1 to Q2. In general, that's what I do expect is those sequential increases. Now from time to time, as we're seeing Q3 to Q4, the timing of program expenses or some of these items can be a little uneven quarter-to-quarter. But overall, I would expect sequential growth as we go through '27.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole Kozhukhov of Morgan Stanley.

Joseph Moore

We figured this out. It's Joe Moore from Morgan Stanley. Somehow I got registered under the wrong name. I wonder if you could talk about the market share on 1.6 terabit. You've talked about being much higher market share than you were at 400 gigabit. Where are you now from a mix standpoint, 400, 800, 1.6? And should we think about that as a growth driver for you as 1.6 becomes a bigger part of the mix?

Rajesh Vashist

Yes, absolutely. We should as it transitions towards from 800 to 1.6 and beyond that for that matter to 3.2. We didn't have a very large portion of our business in the 400. So while we are shipping in the 400 and we expect that to ship for a couple more years, we have a relatively small market share.

In the 800, it grew over 4x. And I would say that in the 1.6, it grows again. So there's a unit uplift, market share uplift, but there's also an ASP uplift going from 800 to 1.6 terabit. And we have indicated that as being a significant value of growth in revenue because of performance and other attributes that we have.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Rajesh for closing remarks.

Rajesh Vashist

Yes. Thank you for that. We really see ourselves as the company that after the acquisition has really transformed itself into this place where there's fundamental changes between our scale. I think the scale of engineers, the scale of sales, the scale of the business itself is very high, and it helps us to grow the financial transition over to high gross margin, high net operating margin company, I think, is already happening.

And then the closer move to customers across the market, I think, has really changed SiTime. So I think our customers recognize it. Our partners recognize it. And I think we wanted to make sure that our investors get to see that we see ourselves as having fundamentally transformed from this $1 billion tipping point revenue onwards to greater growth and greater impact in the market. So with all that, we thank all our investors, and we invite them to join the ride for future and even better times. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.