Cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của LTC Properties: Các thương vụ mua lại SHOP tiến gần 1 tỷ USD

Điểm nhấn chính

• LTC Properties (NYSE: LTC) đã hoàn tất các thương vụ thâu tóm bất động sản vận hành nhà ở dưỡng lão (SHOP) trị giá khoảng 950 triệu USD tính đến hết tháng 10 và dự kiến các thương vụ thâu tóm trong năm 2026 sẽ đạt xấp xỉ 1 tỷ USD. Điều này sẽ giúp mở rộng SHOP từ con số 0 lên danh mục trị giá 1,6 tỷ USD chỉ trong 19 tháng.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến mảng SHOP sẽ chiếm 50% thu nhập hoạt động thuần (NOI) quy năm theo kịch bản pro forma vào cuối năm 2026, qua đó nâng tốc độ tăng trưởng nội tại pro forma của LTC lên gấp 3 lần. Công ty nhận thấy lộ trình để SHOP đạt khoảng 75% NOI quy năm vào cuối năm 2028.
• FFO cốt lõi quý 3 tăng lên 0,71 USD/cổ phiếu từ mức 0,69 USD của cùng kỳ năm trước, trong khi FAD cốt lõi tăng lên 0,73 USD/cổ phiếu từ mức 0,72 USD.
• Dự báo cho cả năm 2026 vẫn được giữ nguyên ở mức 2,76–2,78 USD/cổ phiếu đối với FFO cốt lõi và 2,83–2,85 USD/cổ phiếu đối với FAD cốt lõi.
• Dự báo NOI cốt lõi của mảng SHOP được thu hẹp về mức 53,5 triệu–55,5 triệu USD. Mức trung vị 54,5 triệu USD thấp hơn 0,5 triệu USD so với mức trung vị trước đó, chủ yếu do việc hồi tố giảm mức chi trả Medicaid và những thay đổi trong cơ cấu gói dịch vụ chăm sóc cũng như cơ cấu phòng.
• Thanh khoản pro forma vượt mức 900 triệu USD, trong khi tỷ lệ nợ trên EBITDA điều chỉnh quy năm cho bất động sản theo kịch bản pro forma là 4,4 lần, nằm trong phạm vi mục tiêu 4–5 lần của LTC.

Dữ liệu tài chính trọng yếu

Hiệu quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Sự chuyển dịch danh mục đầu tư của LTC sang bất động sản vận hành nhà ở dưỡng lão (SHOP) tiếp tục là chủ đề trọng tâm trong cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026. Công ty hiện sở hữu 50 bất động sản SHOP và hợp tác với 14 đơn vị vận hành, bao gồm 1 đối tác mới được bổ sung vào tháng 10.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các thương vụ thâu tóm SHOP hoàn tất trong năm 2026 chỉ chiếm chưa đầy 5% tổng khối lượng giao dịch được sàng lọc, phản ánh chiến lược thâu tóm có chọn lọc. Hầu hết các bất động sản được mua lại đều đã có tỷ lệ lấp đầy ổn định, do đó quá trình thẩm định đầu tư chú trọng vào việc tốc độ tăng trưởng RevPOR vượt trội hơn ExPOR thay vì kỳ vọng vào mức tăng mạnh của tỷ lệ lấp đầy.

Danh mục SHOP cốt lõi dự kiến sẽ tạo ra 53,5 triệu–55,5 triệu USD NOI trong năm 2026. Ban lãnh đạo nhận định danh mục này có thể đạt mức tăng trưởng NOI từ mức cao của một chữ số đến mức thấp của hai chữ số với chênh lệch 200 điểm cơ bản giữa RevPOR và ExPOR, ngay cả khi tỷ lệ lấp đầy không tăng. Các đơn vị vận hành theo hình thức tự chi trả (private-pay) vẫn tiếp tục thực hiện tăng giá dịch vụ, với tiềm năng tăng tổng hợp tiền thuê và phí chăm sóc hiện hữu ở mức từ trung bình đến cao của một chữ số trong năm 2027, tùy thuộc vào ngân sách của đơn vị vận hành và cơ cấu danh mục.

LTC cũng tiếp tục tái cơ cấu vốn từ các tài sản triple-net có tốc độ tăng trưởng thấp hơn. Công ty đã thu về khoảng 465 triệu USD tổng tiền thu từ các đợt thoái vốn trong quý 3. Trong số 10 bất động sản thuộc diện điều chỉnh giá thuê theo thị trường, 3 bất động sản đã bước vào quy trình bán, 2 bất động sản được chuyển sang hợp đồng thuê dài hạn với tiền thuê quy năm ban đầu là 2,4 triệu USD, và 5 bất động sản vẫn đang trong quá trình đàm phán hợp đồng thuê dài hạn hơn. LTC dự kiến sẽ thu về 780.000 USD tiền thuê trong quý 4 từ 5 bất động sản này.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

LTC duy trì dự báo cả năm 2026 đối với FFO cốt lõi ở mức 2,76–2,78 USD/cổ phiếu và FAD cốt lõi ở mức 2,83–2,85 USD/cổ phiếu.

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tổng giá trị thâu tóm SHOP năm 2026 sẽ đạt xấp xỉ 1 tỷ USD. Công ty cũng có 200 triệu USD giao dịch thâu tóm SHOP dự kiến sẽ hoàn tất trong quý 1/2027, qua đó mở rộng thêm quan hệ hợp tác với một đơn vị vận hành nữa.

Công ty cho biết danh mục thương vụ tiềm năng củng cố sự lạc quan về việc duy trì quy mô giao dịch tương tự trong năm 2027, dù đây chỉ là kỳ vọng chứ không phải kế hoạch thâu tóm chính thức. Mô hình thẩm định hiện tại giả định cơ cấu tài trợ vốn gồm khoảng 70% vốn cổ phần và 30% nợ vay. Ban lãnh đạo nhận định mức gia tăng lợi nhuận trong năm đầu tiên nhìn chung đi ngang, do các thương vụ thâu tóm tập trung chủ yếu vào tiềm năng tăng trưởng nội tại trong tương lai hơn là chênh lệch lợi suất đầu tư ban đầu.

LTC dự kiến khoản vay Prestige trị giá 180 triệu USD sẽ được hoàn trả vào ngày 24 tháng 11. Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng việc mất đi nguồn thu nhập lãi vay liên quan sẽ bù trừ một phần dòng lợi nhuận đóng góp từ mảng SHOP trong năm 2027.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Việc giảm mức chi trả Medicaid được ghi nhận trong quý 3 và có hiệu lực hồi tố từ ngày 1 tháng 7 đã ảnh hưởng đến 2 cơ sở chăm sóc trí nhớ độc lập. Nếu loại trừ các cơ sở này, Medicaid chiếm khoảng 3% doanh thu mảng SHOP.
• Cơ cấu gói dịch vụ chăm sóc và cơ cấu phòng đã làm giảm triển vọng NOI của mảng SHOP cốt lõi. Ban lãnh đạo mô tả tác động này là biến động ngắn hạn trong phạm vi danh mục cốt lõi tương đối nhỏ gồm 27 bất động sản, chứ không phải sự thay đổi về các yếu tố vận hành cơ bản.
• Việc tái cơ cấu vốn có thể làm mờ đi mức tăng trưởng lợi nhuận trong ngắn hạn, do thu nhập từ các tài sản đã bán và các khoản vay đã được hoàn trả bị loại bỏ trước khi phần đóng góp đầy đủ từ các khoản đầu tư SHOP được phản ánh trong các kỳ so sánh.
• Tỷ suất vốn hóa (cap rate) của các thương vụ thâu tóm gần đây đã bị thu hẹp về mức khoảng 6,5%. Ban lãnh đạo thừa nhận khả năng tỷ suất này có thể tiếp tục bị nén lại.
• Rủi ro pháp lý vẫn là một yếu tố cần cân nhắc đối với các tài sản y tế phụ thuộc vào nguồn hoàn trả bảo hiểm, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo tin rằng việc chuyển dịch tỷ trọng sang mảng SHOP tự chi trả sẽ giúp giảm sự phụ thuộc của LTC vào các mô hình hoàn trả này.

Những điểm nổi bật trong phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các tài sản SHOP được thâu tóm gần đây nhìn chung hoạt động phù hợp hoặc vượt nhẹ so với mô hình thẩm định. Các đơn vị vận hành tiếp tục thực hiện thành công các đợt tăng giá đối với khách hàng tự chi trả, trong khi kỳ vọng về chi phí nhân công cho năm 2027 nhìn chung chỉ tập trung vào việc điều chỉnh theo chi phí sinh hoạt thay vì chịu áp lực quá gay gắt.

Về biên lợi nhuận, ban lãnh đạo cho rằng một phần khoảng cách so với các đối thủ cùng ngành xuất phát từ việc LTC tập trung tỷ trọng tương đối cao vào các bất động sản chăm sóc trí nhớ độc lập. 12 trong số 27 bất động sản SHOP cốt lõi là tài sản chăm sóc trí nhớ độc lập, so với khoảng 14 cơ sở trên toàn bộ danh mục 50 bất động sản SHOP.

LTC cho biết nguồn vốn khả dụng không phải là rào cản hạn chế các thương vụ thâu tóm. Thay vào đó, tiêu chí thâu tóm tương đối khắt khe của công ty mới là lý do giải thích tại sao các giao dịch hoàn tất chỉ chiếm chưa đầy 5% lượng giao dịch được sàng lọc. Mối quan hệ với các đơn vị vận hành và bên trung gian tiếp tục đóng vai trò then chốt trong việc tìm kiếm các danh mục quy mô nhỏ hơn và bất động sản riêng lẻ.

Đối với hoạt động thoái vốn các cơ sở điều dưỡng chuyên sâu (skilled nursing), ban lãnh đạo ghi nhận nhu cầu vẫn tiếp tục duy trì, chủ yếu đến từ các bên mua tư nhân và những đơn vị vận hành hiện tại. Công ty cho biết chưa nhận thấy bất kỳ tác động đáng kể nào từ mức lãi suất cao hơn lên khẩu vị mua hoặc mặt bằng định giá.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the LTC Properties Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.

[Operator Instructions]

Joining us on today's call are Pam Kessler, Co-President and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Clint Malin, Co-President and Co-Chief Executive Officer; Cece Chikhale, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer; Gibson Satterwhite, Executive Vice President of Asset Management; Dave Boitano, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer.

Before management begins its presentation, please note that today's comments, including the question-and-answer session, may include forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and events to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in LTC Properties filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time. Including the company's most recent 10-K dated December 31, 2025.

LTC undertakes no obligation to revise or update these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation. Please note, this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to LTC management.

Clint B. Malin

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

Our SHOP strategy is delivering from a growth perspective and has fundamentally reshaped LTC's future. We launched SHOP in May of 2025 and are rapidly transforming from a lower growth triple net lease and lending platform into a SHOP-focused REIT with a higher intrinsic growth profile.

Last quarter, we increased our 2026 midpoint acquisition guidance by 50% to $900 million and have since surpassed that guidance with approximately $950 million in SHOP acquisitions closed through October. We expect total acquisitions for the year of approximately $1 billion, at which point SHOP will have grown from 0 communities into a $1.6 billion portfolio over 19 months. Additionally, we have expanded our SHOP operator relationships to 14, including 1 new relationship added last month.

2026 has been a historic year for LTC. As we continue to focus on the tremendous opportunities ahead of us, our sights are set firmly on 2027. To date, we have $200 million of SHOP acquisitions that are expected to close in the first quarter of next year, which will also add a new SHOP operator relationship to our portfolio.

At an expected $1 billion of SHOP acquisitions in 2026, the portfolio will represent 50% of LTC's pro forma annualized NOI at year-end. At this level, our pro forma internal growth rate triples. And as SHOP continues to expand as a larger share of our total portfolio, our expected growth rate increases even further, significantly enhancing our ability to organically grow core FFO and FAD per share above historical levels.

As we have previously discussed, at our current SHOP acquisition pace, we see a pathway to generating approximately 75% of our annualized NOI from SHOP by the end of 2028. This time line can be accelerated should we identify additional opportunities to recycle capital out of older and lower growth triple net lease assets.

We are proud of what we have achieved, but even more excited about what lies ahead. Transformation is no longer a future objective. It is happening now, and LTC is entering a new chapter of growth, scale and value creation.

Now Gibson will walk us through LTC's operating portfolio.

J. Satterwhite

Thank you, Clint.

We are continuing to optimize risk-adjusted returns and increase the intrinsic growth profile of our own portfolio by recycling capital into SHOP. In the third quarter, we generated about $465 million of gross proceeds by selling triple net assets at an implied cap rate on our rent of approximately 5.5%. And the $180 million Prestige loan is currently slated to pay off on November 24. Going into next year, we will continue to capitalize on opportunities to recycle capital as we look to further accelerate our portfolio transformation.

We are also taking action on the 10-property portfolio subject to market-based rent resets. Of these 10 properties, we recently began the sales process for 3. Another 2 of the 10 properties have been converted into a long-term lease with initial annualized rent of $2.4 million. The lease contains a SHOP conversion option that could be exercised as early as the first quarter of 2027.

For the remaining 5 properties, we plan to negotiate a long-term lease in advance of the current lease expiration next year. We expect to recognize rent of $780,000 in the fourth quarter from these 5 properties.

With respect to our core SHOP portfolio, we are narrowing our 2026 guidance to $53.5 million to $55.5 million, $0.5 million below our prior range at the new midpoint of $54.5 million. The reduction is primarily due to a change in care and unit occupancy mix and a Medicaid rate decrease received in Q3 retroactive to July 1, which affects 2 stand-alone memory care communities in our portfolio.

Excluding these 2 communities, Medicaid as a percentage of our SHOP revenue is approximately 3% and is primarily offered as a spin-down option in states with rates on par with private pay rates. For private pay, our operators have been able to implement strong rate increases, and we expect that to continue into 2027.

The current guidance range for our core SHOP portfolio represents approximately 11% to 15% pro forma growth for the prior year and 13% at the midpoint. The underlying fundamentals of our business are strong.

As we've outlined in prior calls, we believe that our core SHOP portfolio can achieve high single to low double-digit NOI growth with a 200 basis point spread between RevPOR and ExPOR even at 0 occupancy growth. To be clear, we do expect that our operators will continue to drive occupancy growth going forward.

We're excited about the new and expanded operator relationships we've cultivated, the quality of the communities in our portfolio and the markets. We believe that our SHOP portfolio is well positioned to deliver the growth necessary to transform the intrinsic growth profile of our overall portfolio as we continue to increase our SOP mix.

Now Dave will discuss our recent investment activity.

David Boitano

Thanks, Gibson.

We are executing successfully in a dynamic SHOP acquisition market, maintaining our strong momentum and enhancing LTC's growth trajectory. LTC's differentiated approach centers on aligning quality assets with exceptional operators in markets with strong demand fundamentals, creating a portfolio built both for performance today and growth over time.

We've established a strong pool of operators who are well suited to the profile of communities we're acquiring, allowing us to move quickly as opportunities arise.

SHOP has opened a much larger opportunity set for LTC, and we are seeing significantly greater deal flow in 2026 than at any time in our history. We have been selective and strategic in vetting opportunities to pursue only acquisitions that fit our buy box. Illustrating our focus, the acquisitions we have closed in 2026 represent less than 5% of screen deal volume.

Heading into 2027, we expect deal flow to remain strong, especially in a higher interest rate environment and as loans originated at lower rates mature and drive owners to consider monetization ahead of those maturities.

NIC estimates that nearly $40 billion in loans will mature over the next 4 years. We are building our portfolio methodically. Investment decisions are guided by key fundamentals, including occupancy, asset quality, property scale, unit mix, size and configuration and market dynamics to assemble a portfolio positioned to perform for the long run.

LTC's collaborative execution-oriented culture resonates with operators, sellers and intermediaries. Our reputation for responsiveness, transaction certainty and disciplined execution reinforces our relationships, enhances our strategic advantage and drives a robust acquisition pipeline.

2026 has been a year of unprecedented growth, positioning SHOP acquisitions to reach $1 billion by the end of the year. This more than doubles our prior year investment activity, making 2026 the most active year in LTC's history and setting the stage for a new LTC growth era. The opportunities we see in the market today, together with our growing operator relationships and sourcing network, give us confidence in our ability to sustain our momentum into 2027 and beyond.

Now over to Cece for a review of our financial results.

Caroline Chikhale

Thank you, Dave.

With a recently expanded credit facility, a new ATM agreement, proceeds from asset sales and the expected payoff of the Prestige loan, we have ample liquidity and flexibility to capitalize on opportunities as they emerge to continue our growth trajectory into 2027 while creating additional NOI upside.

Our pro forma liquidity stands at over $900 million, including the sale of 2.3 million shares of common stock for $97 million in net proceeds in the third and fourth quarters to date and asset sales of about $465 million of gross proceeds in the third quarter.

Our pro forma debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA for real estate was 4.4x, and our annualized adjusted fixed charge coverage ratio was 4.9x. We remain well within our target range of 4 to 5x debt to EBITDA, although leverage may move within that range based on timing of acquisitions, asset sales, loan payoffs and ATM proceeds.

Core FFO per share was $0.71 for the third quarter compared with $0.69 last year, and core FAD per share was $0.73 compared to $0.72. The increase in core FFO primarily relates to a net increase in SHOP NOI from acquisitions and conversions and an increase in interest income from loan originations and construction funding. This was offset by decreases from property sales and loan and financing receivable payoffs and an increase in interest expense.

The increase in core FAD is primarily due to the same factors as the increase in core FFO as well as rent escalations, offset by an increase in recurring capital expenditures due to SHOP acquisitions.

Our 2026 full year guidance range remains unchanged. Although we've narrowed some of the underlying assumptions based on results through the third quarter, we remain on track to deliver within our expected range of core FFO per share of $2.76 to $2.78 and core FAD per share of between $2.83 to $2.85. Our assumptions are detailed in yesterday's press release and in our supplemental package, which are available on the LTC website.

Now I'll turn things over to Pam.

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

Thank you, Cece.

We introduced our SHOP strategy 1.5 years ago with a clear vision for creating a differentiated growth engine, positioning the company to capitalize on opportunities across the seniors housing sector and enhancing LTC's earnings profile. Our accomplishments to date reflect the strength of that strategy and our team's execution.

Recent stock price momentum indicates that investors value the potential higher future growth from our strategic shift into SHOP. As Clint mentioned, by year-end, SHOP will represent 50% of annualized NOI and has become a significant driver of LTC's growth. This shift from 19 months ago reflects not only the scale of the opportunity, but our ability to establish and cultivate industry-wide relationships.

Our objective has never been simply to grow the portfolio for growth's sake. We have been intentional about assembling a collection of communities positioned to succeed in today's environment and remain competitive as market conditions evolve. The communities we own and seek to acquire have established market positions, attractive demographics and physical layouts that support long-term resident demand.

Our balance sheet is a strategic advantage. As noted, with our expanded credit facility, pro forma liquidity of $900 million and the anticipated $180 million payoff of the Prestige loan, we have substantial financial flexibility to continue funding growth.

Additionally, we have proactively and successfully used our ATM to fund acquisitions, demonstrating the growing appetite for investment in LTC. In fact, comparing September 2024 prior to announcing our SHOP strategy to October 2026, the notional value of our average daily trading volume increased nearly 175% from $10 million to $27 million per day.

Eric Clark, our new Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations, will be instrumental in driving that further. Welcome, Eric. We're glad to have you on board.

Our transformation has been a true group effort, and our success would not be possible without the trust of our operators and the dedication of our team. We are grateful operators choose to work with LTC and have confidence in our ability to support their efforts to provide care and services to seniors across the country, while our team has proven day in and day out that with discipline, execution and commitment, we can move faster and accomplish more.

LTC has evolved rapidly by delivering on the strategy we first laid out when launching SHOP. While our goals were ambitious, we have successfully built a scalable platform that is generating considerable momentum. As a result, we believe we are better positioned than ever to drive sustainable earnings growth, increase portfolio resilience and create meaningful long-term value for our shareholders.

We are now ready to take audience questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

Phần hỏi đáp

Michael Carroll

I guess, Clint, I appreciate the comments that you guys made that the total SHOP portfolio can generate high single-digit NOI growth or low double-digit NOI growth with just a 200 basis point spread between RevPOR and ExPOR. I mean is that a good measure for the broader portfolio? And maybe is there a split we should think about between the freestanding memory care portion of the SHOP and the rest of the SHOP portfolio?

Clint B. Malin

I think, Mike, well, I'll let Gibson talk about some of the detail on that. But broadly speaking, when we designed this core portfolio to give transparency to what we've been acquiring. That includes properties acquired through early January, but 12 of that 27 in our core portfolio are stand-alone memory care assets, which have different fundamentals as far as acuity, rate growth, which differs from our portfolio more broadly. So right now, we have 50 buildings in our SHOP portfolio, of which we have about, I guess, 14 that are freestanding memory care. So there's different compositions and profiles for that.

But Gibson, why don't you talk about the spread between RevPOR, ExPOR?

J. Satterwhite

Yes. Mike, it's a good question. It's a fair question. I'll hedge a little bit by saying we'll keep our comments focused on core for now. And then as we work through the budgeting process, we're now up to 50 properties. The core portfolio is 27 of those. We can -- happy to revisit.

I will say that as we roll new acquisitions in, the RevPOR is kind of coming in around the range that you're seeing in our total RevPOR range in our supplemental slides, so call it, mid-7s. And the acquisitions team as we're underwriting feels like that possibility is there. So we're not underwriting a lot of occupancy growth on stabilized acquisitions. We're underwriting that spread.

So I think given those, I don't suspect there's going to be a big change, but we can put a pin in this after we work through budget season. But generally speaking, yes, we feel confident in that thesis, and we're obviously putting a lot of money and time and energy behind that.

Michael Carroll

Okay. And it sounds like the Medicaid issue is tied to 2 communities within the memory care portfolio. Can you give us the breakout of the Medicaid exposure within the memory care portfolio alone? And is it only 2 communities that have a lot of Medicaid exposure and the rest is included in that 3% number you provided?

J. Satterwhite

Yes, that's right. That's right, Mike. So it's primarily concentrated in those. Those 2 are in a state that has good reimbursement on par with private pay. And it's a niche program in that state where they can take in residents. They get equivalent to what you might get in the skilled nursing, but they're able to get that in a residential setting.

So that was the -- unfortunately, right after we rolled out guidance and increased our RevPOR guidance on the last call, we found out about that. That decision was issued after our last call. But yes, the rest of the portfolio, the bulk of it is in those buildings.

Michael Carroll

Okay. And then just last question for me on the potential asset sales. I know that there was that one SNF tenant that's going to elect to exercise its purchase option. I know that in the press release, you gave us the mechanics on how the purchase price is going to be decided. But can you give us some idea of what the potential yield can be? Is it going to be in like the low 8-ish percent type range? Is that kind of a fair estimate? Or is it a little bit different than that?

Clint B. Malin

I would say we're in the process of determining this, and we structured this transaction to where we can participate in value creation of those buildings. So I think it's too early to give you a specific number, but we feel confident in how we structured the transaction to not just be paid off at our gross book to participate in upside in those properties. So we'll provide more color on that on probably our next earnings call.

Operator

Our next question is from Rob Stevenson with Huntington.

Robert Stevenson

Just on the skilled nursing side, can you talk about what the disposition market looks like there today? Given most people's higher cost of capital, how materially is pricing for those assets being impacted today and demand, et cetera, that you're seeing?

Clint B. Malin

We've experienced in recent transactions where there's been tremendous appetite primarily in the private buyer market for skilled nursing. So we haven't seen a change in that. It seems to be very robust.

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

Yes. Interest rates, you're probably getting at the increase in interest rates and what effect that's had, but we haven't seen that have a material effect on the appetite or pricing within the skilled nursing industry.

Robert Stevenson

Okay. Are these -- the dispositions you guys have done recently, have they gone to normal buyers? Or is this part of the sort of further of 1031 and bonus depreciation buyers that seem to be supporting the market to a greater extent here in the fourth quarter?

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

Well, for us, it's generally been the operator. So maybe that's why we're not seeing any price changes because the operator, especially under a lease is going to be your strongest buyer.

Clint B. Malin

But in other cases where we sold -- I mean what's not been to the existing operator in a couple of cases, it's been buyers that are known quantities in the industry that have been long-term investors.

Robert Stevenson

Okay. That's helpful. And then noticed that ExPOR on the core SHOP portfolio declined quarter-over-quarter. Is that just short-term noise? Or is there some significant initiatives that you guys have underway in the portfolio to reduce costs on the expense side?

J. Satterwhite

I call it a little bit of noise. This is Gibson. I call it a little bit of noise. Just keep in mind that 27 properties in and of itself is a pretty small sample size when you're talking about same-store portfolio. And then again, 12 of those are stand-alone memory care. So you get more variance around whatever the mean is from quarter-to-quarter.

On balance, the reductions there were some successful property tax appeals and better GLPL experience, but nothing that's really -- I mean, those are real and those kind of carry forward. But structurally, I would call that some changes, improvements around the edges.

Operator

Our next question is from Omotayo Okusanya with Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya

Just kind of curious from a regulatory perspective, if, again, the midterm results create any additional or even a reduction in regulatory risk? And then also specifically, if you've heard any additional news around CMS and some of the talk about them recalibrating PDPM because of concerns about of charging.

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

Tayo, I mean there's always regulatory risk, right? And I don't see that changing significantly now versus in the past. I think broadly, there's been bipartisan pushback against some of the initiatives from the more progressive side. And I think at the end of the day, cooler heads prevail on that and a lot of its headline noise. But it's certainly something that we keep an eye on.

Clint B. Malin

And we do feel -- we feel positive about by moving our portfolio to more of a SHOP focus on a private pay model than on reimbursed model.

Omotayo Okusanya

Got you. That's helpful. And then on the SHOP side, again, really good activity from an investment perspective. So you guys are clearly getting deals done. But you also mentioned that it is kind of increasingly competitive out there. So could you just talk a little bit about some of the things you're doing to still kind of get your fair share of transactions that you're interested in?

David Boitano

Sure. This is Dave. So our by word would be relationship, right? We're super focused on our operator relationships, our intermediary relationships and being there, whether it's 1 building or 2 or 3, being super responsive.

I think one of the, you can say, non-balance sheet assets for us are our operator relationships because they give us an early look at situations and opportunities and a chance to sort of continue that relationship and grow with them. So just servicing as much as we can, everybody we touch and maintaining what I call our LTC brand in terms of responsiveness and being on it and cutting to the quick. If something doesn't fit, we'll tell them. It doesn't work. If something does work, we're going to lean in hard.

Operator

Our next question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria

Just curious if you could maybe talk a little bit about how investors should think about the growth profile of the company. I think you said given what you've done to SHOP or growing SHOP that the growth profile from a cash flow basis NOI or rents is up 3x and when that should begin to flow through to the bottom line and how that more I know a lot of the movements in '26 have been kind of capital recycling that's been neutral to earnings. But how does that change, if at all, for '27, just given you have more higher growth SHOP assets at present?

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

Yes. Thanks, Juan. There has been, to your point, a lot of noise in the flow-through from our acquisitions due to the capital recycling. And that kind of -- you have a forward 12 months of that and especially with the Prestige loan payoff here in November.

But once that's all flown through the comparative periods, you have 50% or more of the SHOP is dropping to the bottom line. As the SHOP NOI percentage grows, and I talked about on last call, we were looking at just the math getting to 75% in 2028. That flows through to the bottom line because there's not much incremental cost from a corporate standpoint to that. So it increases significantly.

Juan Sanabria

Okay. So not to put words in your mouth, but we should see earnings growth in '27?

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

As we continue to acquire properties, yes. I mean we did -- we did say in -- I'm sorry, what did I say?

Caroline Chikhale

Jaun, in '28.

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

Yes, '28. I mean there will be in '27, we have flow through, but we have the -- we'll have 11 months of the Prestige payoff that also flows through to counterbalance that.

Juan Sanabria

Okay. And then just going forward, I mean, beyond Prestige, is the focus more on booming -- continuing to prune skilled nursing? You talked about good appetite from buyers there. I know some of your peers have been more focused on asset management and capturing higher rent coverage levels through higher rent, either with existing or new tenants. And just kind of the strategy or philosophy on how you approach those opportunities? Is it more skewed towards dispositions and continuing to upweight SHOP? Or is it capturing higher growth than traditionally is available through your skilled care assets?

Clint B. Malin

We had examples of that early in the year when we recycled capital out of skilled nursing leases that were expiring. It really was us looking at a situational opportunity of really having a growth trajectory through SHOP and recycling that capital at an attractive rate for a higher growth profile of assets.

So that was really a strategic decision as we really focus on growing our SHOP platform. We'll look at that as we go forward as far as opportunities. But if we do have ability to attractively recycle capital in existing leases to redeploy to SHOP to be able to accelerate that growth to a higher growth profile, that's where we want to go. I mean our ultimate objective is driving per share earnings growth.

Juan Sanabria

Beyond the loan payoff in November, anything else out there that we should expect? I know you flagged the purchase option that was going to be taken up here in the first quarter, I believe. But anything else on the loan repayments to ALG, et cetera, that could be a source of proceeds?

Clint B. Malin

We've always talked about ALG as a possibility. It's been a view of a shorter duration investment. So it's possible those could lead to payoffs. We've set that aside as always a possibility. We are not exactly sure the timing of that. But we do have people, lessees in our portfolio call us about opportunities to look at purchasing assets. We're not looking at doing transactions that are dilutive, but we'll update you on the next quarterly call in regard to any changes on that.

Operator

Our next question is from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

Jesus Garcia

This is Jesus on for Jamie. Just looking at your SHOP margins over here relative to peers, just how much of that gap right there reflects the higher acing memory care mix? And how much of that gap do you think you can narrow over time?

J. Satterwhite

I think it's fair to say that our core margins are impacted by the memory care mix. And I think as we go into -- because at the beginning of the year, when we rolled out the core portfolio, 27 properties, that was about 98% of our owned NOI at the time.

And so by the time we get to the end of the year, our core SHOP portfolio, call it, $54.5 million, $55 million, that's going to be approximately half of our like SHOP NOI on a pro forma basis at the end of the year. So we'll give some consideration to how we constitute the core portfolio next year to capture kind of the broader trends. But I think in the core portfolio, I think you're seeing the impact of the stand-alone memory care.

Jesus Garcia

Great. And for the acquisitions you're underwriting today, what's the permanent debt-to-equity funding mix that you're assuming here? And like what initial accretion hurdle must the deal clear?

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

Well, we're continuing with the 70% equity, 30% debt. And it's pretty flat the first year as we've talked about, but there's looking at for future growth. Yes, what we're buying is future growth. That's probably the best way to look at it. We're not spread investing at this point.

J. Satterwhite

I'll say a circle back to the initial question. I suspect that some of our peers have higher component IL in their same store as well. So that could be another factor, but...

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

For the higher margin?

J. Satterwhite

Yes, but the memory care is a factor.

Operator

Our next question is from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc.

Austin Wurschmidt

You guys referenced in the prepared remarks, you've transacted on less than 5% of the assets that you've underwritten. And I was wondering if that's more a function of product quality or access to capital, just given a large amount of the acquisitions this year have been funded with proceeds from capital recycling. So to the extent the opportunity to access the equity markets expands, how does that potentially increase your ability to kind of grow the acquisition pace from what you've seen this year?

Pamela Shelley-Kessler

Well, the capital markets is not constraining growth. It's the opportunity set. And I think we're getting our fair share at $1 billion this year, we're certainly getting our fair share of the opportunity set. I think our buy box is probably much smaller than some of our peers. And we're being very selective as we've talked about all year long of what we're buying, and we will continue to be selective. But right now, we don't see the opportunity set narrowing. Our pipeline for next year already looks good. So we're very optimistic about 2027 and our ability to transact at the same volume level as this year.

Austin Wurschmidt

Appreciate the thoughts. And then Gibson, within SHOP, how is performance this year within the core portfolio as well as just from what you've seen as far as the acquisitions, how the performance is stacking up versus underwriting? How does that all shape your thoughts about kind of the pace of occupancy upside in a given year?

J. Satterwhite

Yes. Well, I guess I'll answer it this way first. I think with the deals that we've been acquiring, they've been generally stabilized occupancy. So we haven't been making a big bet on stabilized occupancy. So it's really been come down to the ability to -- the thesis has been that given the supply-demand dynamics that RevPOR will continue to outpace the expenses. And we're seeing that play out. That's the top line of the core metrics, notwithstanding today, I can get into that a little bit.

On your question on how they are performing relative to underwriting, I think on balance, things are performing kind of in line or a little better with underwriting. If you spread that across core and on the brand-new deals. Now the new deals are just coming in.

But on the core side, we actually, in our guidance incorporated higher than underwriting expectations -- and so that's coming in a little better. I think on balance, everything is performing in line with expectations with underwriting.

On the RevPOR side, I think as we look at kind of the underlying fundamentals of the business, I mentioned some of the drivers behind that. So if you think about the 50 basis point decline in our outlook for the full year pro forma year-over-year, about half of that, just slightly more than half of that was due to the Medicaid issue in those 2 stand-alone memory care buildings.

The rest of that, we view as -- and that's something that we feel like they can overcome in terms of the portfolio with continued occupancy growth in the overall portfolio and room for margin improvement.

If you look at the other piece of that, which was slightly less than half of that change, that was really due to unit mix across a little bit more IL than AL sting to have both. You're not reducing staffing levels for that, a little less acuity in memory care around the margins. Again, you're not reducing staffing levels for that, a little trend, quarterly trend to lower RevPOR memory care units.

And that we just didn't -- we feel like that will sort itself out over time. We're not really concerned about that. We just didn't model that to bounce back in Q4. What we're seeing on the ground, the top line result in that kind of RevPOR us bringing RevPOR down is not what we're seeing on the ground.

What we're seeing on the ground with respect to -- if you just look at like-for-like care unit type market, our operators have been throughout the year, been able to implement strong rate increases. And as we head into next year, I think we're optimistic that we can do -- that they can do the same kind of talking about in-place mid-single digit to high single digits in-place rate growth.

And so I feel like -- we feel like the fundamentals are really strong on that. And on the expenses, labor is the bulk of your cost structure. And we're not hearing a lot of acute pressure as we go into budgeting season as people look into 2027.

Generally speaking, most people are talking about kind of cost of living increases. So I think we feel like the fundamentals underlying the business are strong. We feel like some of the top line around the SHOP metrics are a little bit more noise than signal.

Clint B. Malin

Also to add to Gibson's comment is also the acquisitions that we have invested in, we've retained the existing manager for the most part other than a few opportunities. So that leads to consistency of leadership, staffing, familiarity with the markets and the ability to be able to drive RevPOR growth as well as manage expense. So we're excited about that.

Austin Wurschmidt

And just to summarize some of that, the single -- the mid- to high single-digit rate increase you referenced, is that the in-place growth at the outset of the year or sort of the pace of RevPOR growth? And is 50 to 100 basis points of occupancy upside similar to what you're tracking towards this year, kind of a good run rate in terms of annual upside and occupancy -- the pace of occupancy growth?

J. Satterwhite

Yes. We'll get -- let me address that first. We'll get to the occupancy assumptions as we get into next year as we get through budget. I might get my hands smacked if I commit to that now and go back to the operators and push it through that way. So I don't think it's unreasonable, but we'll get to that as we get through budget season.

When I was talking about the potential rate growth on the table, that's in-place blended rent plus care for the in-place residents for your private pay residents. Now that's consider that the range. Our experience is depending on who's doing that, more weighting towards certain portfolios that may blend you down to the lower end of that range. And as I just mentioned, we got a little bit of Medicaid around the margins. We don't really budget for any increases there.

So we're -- I wouldn't say to take the midpoint from 5% to 9% and budget is for 7%. But what I am saying is that as you look at kind of the in-place rates year-over-year and what people are -- what's on the table, we don't really see a deceleration in that. It seems to be pretty consistent and be at levels that allow us to see the double -- that kind of high single-digit, low double-digit growth -- organic growth in our SHOP portfolio.

Operator

Our next question is from Rich Anderson with Cantor Fitzgerald.

Richard Anderson

So I just wanted to a little -- one extra dose of clarification on this modest downtick on the core NOI from SHOP. I get half is the Medicaid issue. That's fine. The other half is this unit mix issue. That's going to happen all the time, right, for the rest of eternity as you're a SHOP owner. We're always going to have that change in care, change in unit mix sort of function. That's just the way the business goes.

And so Gibson, I think you said this, but I just want to make sure. If you had a quarter to go in the year, you make this change. But if you had 5 quarters, the RevPOR growth probably overwhelms this and you don't actually have a reduction. Is that the right way to think about that metric?

J. Satterwhite

Yes, that's right.

Richard Anderson

Okay.

J. Satterwhite

We're just not -- just -- we view that as, again, getting back to sample size, 27 properties, a lot of the variance we're talking about in the stand-alone. You just can't -- frankly, it's challenging to model quarter-to-quarter. But over the long term, it does -- I think you said it very well, Rich.

Richard Anderson

Okay. And then this is probably obvious to everyone but me. But in the press release, your total SHOP NOI also declined by the same amount, $500,000 or something. And I'm curious why that would have happened as you're growing so substantially through acquisitions. Why would have we've seen SHOP total NOI guidance come down to that sort of, I don't know, $75 million range, down a little bit from last time you spoke?

J. Satterwhite

Yes, that's good. That's a fair question, Rich. We're pretty fully baked right now on our guidance. So call it, $20 million. So $55 million, we brought that down $0.5 million in core. And so that's really kind of the incremental change around the margin. So that implies that we don't have any changes for -- we got high value-add properties than everything new that's been acquired relative to our model.

So I think we've got a little bit left potentially in the pipeline, but we've closed, what, $950 million as of last Friday. And so that's kind of baked and that's known, and we're just getting those properties into the portfolio. We're not moving guidance around for that.

Richard Anderson

Okay. And then last question is a little bit bigger picture. You're buying at 7-plus initial cap rates. I think Cece said flat in the first year based on your weighted cost of capital, which is fine. But I am curious as to that 7-plus -- 7 handle on the return.

I mean, it's odd to me that an asset class that's growing so substantially is -- can be acquired at elevated -- what I would call elevated cap rates. When you think of multifamily cap rates, which is growing nowhere near SHOP, those are 5 handle if you're lucky. And so I'm curious your thought on the future of initial cap rates on your external growth profile and if we should -- we think that this 7 handle number is going to happen in perpetuity?

Clint B. Malin

Well, Rich, on that, if you look at Slide 5 in our supplemental, I mean, we look at -- we give our year 1 projected cap rates for our deals. And you can see that there's cap rate compression on the most recent deals we've done in sort of the 6.5% range. So that's where we see opportunity going forward in that range.

Could there be a little more compression? Sure. But we're looking at transactions that are 1 or 2 asset portfolios, not looking at large transactions. We've been fortunate to find a few deals that have been 4 or 5 buildings. So what we're looking at, we're finding opportunity with that.

And as Pam indicated, we're changing our mindset where we're not spread investing. We're looking at the composition of the buildings, which Dave spoke about in his prepared remarks as far as the unit configuration, the size of the communities, the age to compete effectively against new development when it comes online. So we're -- as Pam said, it's future growth that we're investing in.

Richard Anderson

Yes. Fair enough. And thanks for the color and thank you for pointing out my not reading Slide 5. I would have gotten to it eventually.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back over to Clint Malin for closing comments.

Clint B. Malin

Thank you for joining us today. We really appreciate your interest in LTC and our continued story. We look forward to seeing some of you at upcoming investor conferences over the next couple of months. Thank you for your time.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.