Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của FIS: Hạ dự báo và thách thức năm 2027

Điểm tin chính

• FIS đã báo cáo tăng trưởng doanh thu pro forma quý 3 năm 2026 đạt 3,7%, tăng trưởng EBITDA điều chỉnh pro forma đạt 5,2% và EPS điều chỉnh đạt 1,61 USD, tăng 6,6% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.
• Dòng tiền tự do từ đầu năm đến nay tăng 57% lên 1,9 tỷ USD, đạt 85% mục tiêu cả năm. FIS tái khẳng định triển vọng dòng tiền tự do năm 2026 ở mức khoảng 2,2 tỷ USD.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã hạ triển vọng năm 2026 do sự chậm trễ trong việc triển khai từ phía khách hàng, hoạt động hợp nhất ngân hàng, nhu cầu đối với các bản quyền truyền thống suy giảm và việc thoái vốn khỏi mảng kinh doanh thẻ trả trước không cốt lõi.
• Khung kế hoạch sơ bộ cho năm 2027 dự báo tổng doanh thu điều chỉnh sẽ tăng trưởng từ âm 0,5% đến dương 1,0%. Tăng trưởng doanh thu định kỳ dự kiến sẽ bị bù trừ bởi doanh thu từ đối tác thấp hơn, phí chấm dứt hợp đồng trở về mức bình thường và sự dịch chuyển từ bản quyền sang mô hình thuê bao.
• FIS dự kiến biên lợi nhuận năm 2027 sẽ đi ngang hoặc giảm tới 100 điểm cơ bản và EPS điều chỉnh giảm ở mức từ một chữ số cao đến hai chữ số thấp. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng các yếu tố bất lợi không định kỳ sẽ giảm phần lớn vào năm 2028.
• FIS đang duy trì mức đầu tư cao vào an ninh mạng và khả năng phục hồi hạ tầng. Công ty ước tính chi tiêu cho an ninh mạng và bảo mật sẽ làm ảnh hưởng đến biên lợi nhuận năm 2027 khoảng 20 đến 30 điểm cơ bản.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Kết quả hoạt động kinh doanh và vận hành

Doanh thu pro forma của Giải pháp Ngân hàng tăng 3,9%. Doanh thu định kỳ tăng 2,4%, phản ánh đóng góp từ các thương vụ M&A ngân hàng thấp hơn so với nửa đầu năm, sự chậm trễ trong triển khai từ phía khách hàng và một số hoạt động hợp nhất ngân hàng. Doanh thu không định kỳ tăng 22,8% do các đối tác phân phối chiến lược đã bù đắp nhiều hơn cho hoạt động bán bản quyền truyền thống suy yếu.

EBITDA điều chỉnh mảng Ngân hàng tăng 8,8%, trong khi biên lợi nhuận mở rộng hơn 200 điểm cơ bản. Tiết kiệm chi phí và cơ cấu doanh thu thuận lợi là những động lực chính.

Doanh thu và doanh thu định kỳ mảng Thị trường Vốn đều tăng 3%. Doanh thu không định kỳ tăng 24,6%, nhờ sự hỗ trợ từ các đối tác phân phối chiến lược. Doanh thu dịch vụ chuyên nghiệp giảm 20% do doanh số nửa đầu năm yếu hơn và việc triển khai cho khách hàng chậm hơn. Ban lãnh đạo dự báo áp lực này sẽ tiếp tục kéo dài sang quý 4.

Biên lợi nhuận mảng Thị trường Vốn mở rộng 180 điểm cơ bản. Doanh số ACV định kỳ cải thiện 26% so với quý 2 sau khi tập trung thương mại nhiều hơn vào các hợp đồng định kỳ.

FIS cho biết tỷ lệ gia hạn ACV định kỳ nằm ở vùng khoảng hơn 90%, cao hơn 100 điểm cơ bản so với năm trước, trong khi áp lực giảm giá khi gia hạn đã cải thiện. Khoảng 72% doanh thu của Giải pháp Phát hành Tổng thể đã được ký hợp đồng cho đến năm 2029 và xa hơn.

Hoạt động thương mại tiếp tục diễn ra trên diện rộng. Từ đầu năm đến nay, FIS đã bán được 550.000 tài khoản mới trong mảng ngân hàng cộng đồng và quỹ tín dụng, cùng hơn 875.000 tài khoản trong mảng ngân hàng khu vực. Việc mở rộng bán chéo giữa các tổ chức tài chính lớn tăng 76% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, trong khi số lượng khách hàng fintech mới phát triển tăng 23%. Các kênh đối tác chiến lược hiện chiếm 5% đến 10% doanh số mới.

Các khoản đầu tư vận hành đã giúp giảm 40% sự cố dịch vụ từ đầu năm đến nay và rút ngắn thời gian thông báo cho khách hàng gần 90%. FIS cũng đã ra mắt 10 sản phẩm tích hợp AI nguyên bản, bao gồm đại lý điều tra phòng chống rửa tiền cho các tổ chức tài chính Mỹ.

Triển vọng của ban lãnh đạo

Triển vọng năm 2026 đã cập nhật

Việc điều chỉnh mảng Ngân hàng bao gồm tác động ước tính 65 điểm cơ bản từ sự chậm trễ trong triển khai và thương vụ hợp nhất ngân hàng lớn, cộng với mức giảm 85 điểm cơ bản từ các giả định doanh thu không định kỳ thấp hơn. Trên toàn FIS, ban lãnh đạo đã giảm giả định doanh thu không định kỳ trong quý 4 hơn 100 triệu USD.

Khung kế hoạch sơ bộ cho năm 2027

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng các động lực tự thân nền tảng—bao gồm tăng trưởng giao dịch và tài khoản, doanh số bán mới ròng và chính sách giá—sẽ đóng góp khoảng 2,5 đến 3,5 điểm phần trăm vào tăng trưởng. Tuy nhiên, việc thiếu hụt 140 triệu USD doanh thu hợp tác phân phối chiến lược và phí chấm dứt hợp đồng thấp hơn dự kiến sẽ làm giảm 250 đến 300 điểm cơ bản tăng trưởng.

Ban lãnh đạo ước tính doanh thu không định kỳ thấp hơn sẽ làm giảm biên lợi nhuận năm 2027 từ 75 đến 145 điểm cơ bản. Chi phí đầu tư vốn tăng thêm trong năm 2027 dự kiến khoảng 50 triệu USD, tiếp sau mức đầu tư vốn đã ở mức cao trong năm 2026.

FIS dự kiến những trở lực không định kỳ mang tính tạm thời này sẽ tiêu tan phần lớn khi bước sang năm 2028, hỗ trợ quay trở lại đà tăng trưởng bình thường hơn. Đây vẫn là kỳ vọng của ban lãnh đạo chứ chưa phải kế hoạch chính thức cho năm 2028.

Rủi ro và các lĩnh vực trọng tâm

• Có ít hơn 10 khách hàng lớn hoãn việc triển khai. Mặc dù các dự án nhìn chung được dời lại thời gian thay vì bị hủy bỏ, sự thay đổi về tiến độ sẽ ảnh hưởng đến việc ghi nhận doanh thu kéo dài sang năm 2027.
• Nhu cầu bản quyền truyền thống vẫn yếu do khách hàng chuyển dịch sang các sản phẩm SaaS và mô hình thuê bao trên nền tảng điện toán đám mây. Sự chuyển đổi này hỗ trợ doanh thu định kỳ nhưng tạo ra áp lực ngắn hạn lên doanh thu và biên lợi nhuận.
• Hoạt động hợp nhất ngân hàng gia tăng đã tạo ra khoản phí chấm dứt hợp đồng cao bất thường trong năm 2025 và 2026. Khung kế hoạch năm 2027 giả định mức phí này sẽ trở lại ngưỡng bình thường hơn.
• Mảng dịch vụ chuyên nghiệp của Thị trường Vốn tiếp tục chịu áp lực do doanh số bán kỳ trước yếu hơn và việc triển khai bị chậm lại.
• Tăng trưởng mảng Thanh toán bị ảnh hưởng do đối chiếu với các đóng góp từ M&A trước đó và sự tham gia thấp hơn vào các chương trình trợ cấp do chính phủ tài trợ như SNAP. Ban lãnh đạo dự báo một số áp lực sẽ tiếp tục kéo dài sang nửa đầu năm 2027.
• Các mối đe dọa an ninh mạng đang tiến triển nhanh chóng, đòi hỏi phải tiếp tục đầu tư vào bảo mật, phần mềm, phần cứng và khả năng phục hồi hạ tầng.

Những điểm nổi bật trong phiên Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sự cạnh tranh vẫn ổn định và nhu cầu đối với các sản phẩm của FIS tiếp tục duy trì ở mức mạnh mẽ. Sự chậm trễ trong triển khai tập trung ở các khách hàng lớn hơn và chủ yếu liên quan đến yếu tố thời điểm chứ không phải do hủy bỏ.

Hầu như tất cả các đợt chuyển đổi bị hoãn đều được bảo đảm bằng hợp đồng và đã được dời lại lịch trình. Một số dự án đã khởi động lại vào quý 4 năm 2026, trong khi những dự án khác được lên kế hoạch vào cuối quý 1 hoặc quý 3 năm 2027. FIS kỳ vọng thu được lợi ích từ các dự án này trong năm 2027, dù không nhất thiết phải kéo dài suốt cả năm.

Ban lãnh đạo đã định lượng các trở lực lớn về doanh thu không định kỳ trong năm 2027 ở mức khoảng 400 triệu USD. Những yếu tố này bao gồm khoảng 140 triệu USD từ các thỏa thuận hợp tác đối tác, khoảng 100 triệu USD từ hoạt động hợp nhất ngân hàng trở lại bình thường, 75 triệu đến 100 triệu USD do rút khỏi các mảng kinh doanh thiết bị có biên lợi nhuận thấp, và khoảng 50 triệu đến 75 triệu USD liên quan đến quá trình chuyển đổi bản quyền dần dần của mảng Thị trường Vốn.

FIS cho biết đợt đánh giá chiến lược của công ty bao gồm toàn bộ danh mục kinh doanh chứ không chỉ riêng mảng Thị trường Vốn. Công ty có kế hoạch cung cấp bản cập nhật chi tiết hơn vào đầu năm 2027. Đồng thời, công ty cũng xác nhận rằng các kỳ vọng về hiệu ứng cộng hưởng từ Giải pháp Phát hành Tổng thể vẫn không thay đổi.

Giám đốc Tài chính (CFO) James Kehoe cho biết việc chi phí một lần thấp hơn và những cải thiện về vốn lưu động sẽ đóng góp tỷ lệ tương đương nhau để hỗ trợ dòng tiền tự do năm 2027. Tuy nhiên, EBITDA thấp hơn có thể làm chậm tiến độ đạt mục tiêu đòn bẩy của công ty và việc tái khởi động chương trình mua lại cổ phiếu.

Alex Brooks sẽ đảm nhiệm vị trí Giám đốc Tài chính tạm thời vào ngày 5 tháng 11 khi James Kehoe rời đi để tìm kiếm các cơ hội bên ngoài FIS. Hội đồng quản trị đã bắt đầu quy trình tìm kiếm nhân sự bao gồm cả ứng viên nội bộ và bên ngoài.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the FIS Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. George Mahilos. Sir, please begin.

Georgios Mihalos

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for the FIS Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

This call is being webcasted. Today's news release, corresponding presentation and webcast are all available on our website at fisglobal.com.

On the call with me this morning is our CEO and President, Stephanie Ferris, and our CFO, Jim Ki. Stephanie will begin the call with a strategic and operational update, followed by James, who will review our financial results.

Turning to Slide. Today's remarks will contain forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as described in the press release and other filings with the SEC.

The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Please refer to the safe harbor language. Also throughout this call, we will be presenting non-GAAP information, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net earnings and adjusted net earnings per share.

These are important financial performance measures for the company but are not financial measures as defined by GAAP. Reconciliation of our non-GAAP information to the GAAP financial information is presented in our earnings release. And now I'll turn the call over to Stephanie.

Stephanie Ferris

Thank you, George, and good morning, everyone. FIS delivered a solid quarter. We grew revenue, expanded margins and generated strong free cash flow.

Demand for our solutions remain strong, and we continue to simplify our portfolio, closing on the divestiture of a noncore prepaid asset. Our clients are asking more of us than ever. They want strong cyber protection and the right controls around AI. That is why trust and resiliency are at the center of everything we do.

With approximately 12% of the world's economy flowing through our systems, keeping our clients safe is our most important responsibility.

And we are investing on their behalf, which I will address this morning. I want to thank all of our colleagues around the world as they continue to support our clients and each other in this demanding environment.

With elevated security needs and changing client behavior, our initiatives to continue delivering for our clients are also resulting in a revised guidance outlook for the year. In a dynamic industry environment, we are deliberately taking a more prudent approach.

Now let me turn to our outlook, which we are updating today. I want to be very clear about why. Three things are driving this. First, we are prioritizing recurring revenue as market demand is accelerating shifts from traditional licenses to our new subscription and SaaS products.

Second, over the course of the third quarter, we started to see some client-directed conversion delays, primarily in our larger client base and some impacts from the timing around large bank consolidation.

Our outlook builds in updated time lines to account for these. Third, we are building flexibility to invest in technology and security to enable both client implementations and the prioritization of cyber activities.

These factors will weigh on our results in the fourth quarter in 2027, and we expect them to largely fade in 2028. This morning, I will walk through our third quarter results, our strategy and priorities and the commercial momentum we are building. James will then cover our financial results, our updated 2026 outlook and our preliminary framework for 2027.

Turning to Slide for third quarter highlights. Pro forma revenue grew 3.7%, with recurring revenue growth of 2.5%. Adjusted EBIT margin was 42.9%, with expansion of 94 basis points driven by favorable revenue mix and savings from our cost programs.

Adjusted EPS was $1.61, up 6.6%. Free cash flow remains a real strength. Year-to-date free cash flow of $1.9 billion is up 57%.

Recurring ACV sales are up on a year-to-date basis. In Capital Markets, where we told you last quarter that sales were behind plan, recurring sales improved 26% from the second quarter due to commercial excellence and focus on recurring sales initiatives.

Last quarter, we said we would address it, and we are. And we simplified our portfolio, closing on the divestiture of a noncore prepaid asset within the Banking Solutions segment. Together, these results reflect our profitability, strong cash generation and healthy demand.

Turning to Slide We are continuing to invest in our strategy, adding the total issuing solutions business to our portfolio, resulting in a more scaled and cash-generative business.

Today, we support more than 90 million core banking accounts and more than billion cardholder accounts on file, and we have processed more than 52 billion card transactions year-to-date. Our clients continue to grow and we grow alongside them.

On an organic basis, all our key metrics are growing at mid-single digits. Delivering at scale and growing with our clients is translating into stronger free cash flow, which has grown from $1.2 billion year-to-date, 2025 to $1.9 billion year-to-date 2026.

Turning to Slide. Operational excellence, specifically commercial excellence and improving the client experience is a commitment we have discussed since Investor Day, and we are seeing real progress. By way of example in commercial excellence within our banking segment, we are seeing a pronounced shift towards higher-margin products.

Regarding the client experience. Earlier this year, we made a significant investment in account management, increasing our coverage teams by 15% and deepening our coverage with specialized client success managers, account directors and technical account managers.

Our investments and resiliency are also paying off, reducing service incidents by 40% year-to-date and cutting client notification times by nearly 90%. And finally, our investments in AI native product have yielded 10 new products, including our new anti-money laundering agent. Our clients are seeing a better experience, and it is showing up in higher renewal rates with less pricing compression.

Our recurring ACV renewal rate is in the high 90s, up over 100 basis points from last year, and pricing compression on renewal has also improved. As discussed in previous quarters, we are also building durability and efficiency into the business. 72% of total issuing solutions revenue is under contract through 2029 and beyond and we continue to be focused on efficiencies across our business.

Stronger, longer client relationships are the foundation of the recurring revenue we are prioritizing. Turning to Slide 8. I outline our near-term priorities, beginning with trust. Trust comes first. Our clients running meaningful share of the world's financial system on FIS technology. Their safety and the safety of their customers is paramount. The threat environment is changing quickly, and AI is accelerating how fast vulnerabilities can be found by defenders and attackers alike.

We have been investing materially in infrastructure resiliency and cyber since 2024. FIS is one of only a few financial technology companies participating in Anthropics Project Glass wing.

And that work has shown us firsthand how quickly the threat landscape for our industry is changing. So we will continue to step up our investment, and we are fighting AI risk with AI using advanced technology to find and remediate software vulnerabilities at speed and scale.

Our technology, product and client teams are at the center of this work. We've been communicating our approach at every level with our clients and with regulators, and they've welcomed the focus and rigor we are bringing. We are convinced this is the right thing to do for our clients and for the financial services industry.

Next is sales and demand for our solutions remains strong. Our modernized products are driving demand because clients can use them in the cloud without the customization and long deployments on on-premise licenses require.

Our channel-driven value proposition and go-to-market motion are winning new logos, and we are expanding our reach through strategic partnerships with resellers, system integrators, advisory firms and marketplaces.

In 2026, we signed strategic distribution partnerships that unlock new channels for our best-in-class products. Those agreements generated significant license revenue this year that we do not expect to repeat in 2027. However, we expect these partnerships to expand our new sales as we activate distribution with our partners. We're also advancing innovation, and identic banking is gaining momentum.

Earlier this month, our AML investigation agent became commercially available to U.S. financial institutions, deployed first at 1 of our design partners. This is the first of many additional agents in our pipeline.

Finally, our evaluation of strategic alternatives is ongoing, and you can expect to get a more substantial update from us in early 2027. Turning to Slide 9. Demand is strong across every client segment we serve and in each one, a flagship product leads the way.

In community banking and credit unions, we've sold 550,000 new accounts year-to-date. Our full suite regulatory-grade core banking platform is also helping launch de novo banks. In regional banking, we're scaling with acquirers.

As banks consolidate, they're choosing our core ecosystem. We've sold over 875,000 new accounts year-to-date, winning through bank M&A and our best-in-class suite of products in commercial banking.

With large financial institutions, we are driving cross sales through value-added services including loyalty and payments. Cross-sell expansion is up 76% year-over-year. And with fintechs, our money movement capabilities are powering innovation with new client wins up 23% year-over-year.

Across all 4 channels, the pattern is the same. A leading product opens the door and the breadth of our portfolio deepens the relationship over time. Each of those relationship adds to our recurring revenue base. We're also extending our reach beyond our direct sales force.

Through strategic partners, we're reaching new clients. This channel is already contributing 5% to 10% of our new sales, and we expect that share to grow over the medium term.

In closing, let me reframe our outlook. As I discussed at the beginning of the call, we are deliberately taking a more prudent outlook based on factors that emerged during the third quarter. We are making deliberate choices to build a more recurring, more resilient FIS.

Our clients are asking for new products, innovation and for the highest standards of security and resiliency. We will meet both. So we are planning for a wider range of margin outcomes in 2027 to support continued investment.

These factors, together with the lack of demand for licenses, the activation of our strategic distribution partnerships and higher-than-normal termination fees as a result of larger scale bank consolidation will reduce nonrecurring revenue and pressure margins in the fourth quarter and into 2027.

However, it should create more durable recurring revenue in 2027 and beyond. I want to be clear about how we see this. Our outlook is deliberately prudent as we navigate a rapidly changing market.

It is not indicative of the long-term revenue and earnings power of this business. As these headwinds largely fade in 2028, we expect a return to more normalized growth. Before I pass it to James, I want to take a moment to recognize him for his financial leadership and many contributions to FIS.

James has been a very strong partner to me in the FIS leadership team over the past 3 years. His financial acumen and leadership have been instrumental in strengthening our financial foundation and advancing several important strategic initiatives that have positioned FIS well for our next chapter of growth. I'm grateful for his partnership and thankful for his continued support and commitment to ensuring a seamless transition in the coming weeks and months.

I also want to recognize Alex Brooks. Our Chief Accounting Officer, who will serve as Interim Chief Financial Officer beginning tomorrow, November 5. Alex is a seasoned finance leader and former public company CFO, who knows our business, our controls and our finance team well.

The Board and I have initiated a comprehensive search for a permanent CFO that will consider both internal and external candidates. I will work closely with Alex over the coming weeks with James' support to ensure a seamless transition. With that, I will turn it over to James.

James Kehoe

Thanks, Stephanie, and good morning, everyone. It has been a privilege to serve as CFO of FIS during what has been a transformative period for the company. But after 3 years, it's the right time to look at other opportunities outside of FIS.

I am very proud of the talented finance team, which has and will continue to deliver stellar cash flow results. And I would like to thank Alex for stepping into the interim role. She is a superb leader and an experienced financial executive.

I will work closely with Alex to ensure a seamless transition. I will continue to be a shareholder in FIS as I believe in the long-term potential of the company. Turning now to the formal presentation.

Third quarter results were broadly in line with our expectations, but a strong performance on cash flow. Revenue grew 3.7% on a pro forma basis with banking and capital markets coming in at the higher end of our outlook, including a positive contribution from new strategic distribution partnerships. Pro forma EBITDA grew 5.2%, with margins up 94 basis points, in line with our outlook of 80 to 100 basis points.

And the margin expansion was led by favorable revenue mix and cost savings with margins up across both segments. Adjusted EPS increased 6.6%. Cash flow had another strong quarter, up 8% year-over-year despite lapping a very tough comp.

You will recall that free cash flow doubled in the third quarter of last year. Year-to-date, we have now generated $1.9 billion of cash flow achieving 85% of our full year target.

Our leverage ratio held steady at 3.5x, with our total debt declined into $20.8 billion and we returned $248 million to shareholders, primarily through dividends.

Turning now to our segment results, starting on Slide 13. Banking Solutions pro forma revenue growth was 3.9%.

Recurring revenue slowed to 2.4%, reflecting lower M&A compared to the first half of the year, client-led conversion delays and the impact of select bank consolidation.

Nonrecurring revenue grew 22.8% with a strong contribution from strategic distribution partnerships offsetting a decline in traditional licenses.

Adjusted EBITDA advanced 8.8% with margins expanding more than 200 basis points on a pro forma basis, reflecting continued cost savings and favorable revenue mix.

Turning now to Capital Markets on Slide 14. Revenue increased 3%, which was at the high end of our outlook. Recurring revenue also grew 3%, lapping a very strong 9% in the prior year. Nonrecurring revenue grew 24.6% with growth in strategic distribution partnerships offsetting a decline in traditional licenses and professional services declined 20%, reflecting the impact of weaker first half sales and a slower-than-expected pace of client implementations.

We expect this pressure on professional services to continue into the fourth quarter. Lastly, margins expanded 180 basis points, reflecting favorable revenue mix from partnership deals and cost savings. Turning now to Slide 15 to review our year-to-date results. Revenue increased 5.1% with banking at 5.8% and capital markets at 3.1%. EBITDA margins expanded 96 basis points, reflecting favorable mix and cost savings. Free cash flow was up 57% year-on-year to $1.9 billion and bringing the latest 12 months to $2.3 billion.

We are confident we will achieve our full year cash flow goals. Now let's turn to Slide 16 for a discussion on our updated full year outlook.

As Stephanie noted in her remarks, we have begun to see some client-driven implementation delays across our larger enterprise customers. Given these changes, we are taking a more prudent approach to our outlook.

Firstly, we are incorporating revised implementation time lines and accounting for some impact from select bank consolidation.

And secondly, we are taking a more measured view on nonrecurring revenue, given softer market receptivity to our licensed products.

With that said, let me walk you through our updated projections. We now expect banking revenue growth of 3.5% to 4% as compared to 5% to 5.5% previously. This reduction is driven by a 65 basis point impact from client-led implementation delays and the impact of a large bank consolidation and an 85 basis point reduction from lower assumptions regarding nonrecurring revenue in light of shifts in client demand.

Turning to capital markets. We are now forecasting revenue growth of 2% to 2.5% as compared to 3% to 3.5% previously. This change primarily reflects lower license activity as we shift to meet market demand for cloud-based modern products sold under recurring contracts.

Lastly, we have reduced our revenue outlook to account for the divestiture of a noncore prepaid business.

Turning now to margins. The revenue reduction we are now forecasting for the fourth quarter will weigh on EBITDA and margins. We are reducing our assumptions for nonrecurring revenue by over $100 million, impacting margins by approximately 50 basis points.

We now anticipate full year margin expansion of 20 to 30 basis points. Adjusted EPS growth is reduced to 1.2% to 2.4%. Cash flow remains on track. We are reaffirming our free cash flow outlook of approximately $2.2 billion. Strong performance from our working capital programs and a decline in non-GAAP cash expenses will offset lower earnings.

Turning now to 2027 on Slide 17. Similar to the prudent approach underpinning our updated 2026 guidance, I'd like to share some preliminary perspectives on how we're thinking about 2027 and why we believe we will return to a more normalized level of growth in 2028.

Organic growth is driven by transactions and account growth, net new sales and pricing and is expected to contribute approximately 2.5 to 3.5 percentage points of growth, broadly consistent with historical performance. Nonrecurring revenue will be negatively impacted by the absence of $140 million of strategic distribution partnerships and a reduction in termination fees from elevated levels in both 2025 and 2026.

Overall, this will reduce growth by 250 to 300 basis points, bringing the adjusted growth rate range to down 50 basis points to up 100 basis points.

Importantly, we believe these nonrecurring headwinds are temporary in nature and are expected to dissipate as we enter 2028. With that, let me walk you through our expectations by segment, starting with banking.

We anticipate revenue growth of flat to 1.5% with recurring revenue growth of approximately 3%, largely offset by a sharp decline in nonrecurring revenue, driven by the lapping of strategic partnership deals, a return to a normalized level of termination fees and deprioritizing certain low-margin equipment businesses.

For capital markets, we are anticipating a range of down 1.5% to up 0.5%, with recurring growth in the mid-single digits. As with banking, we expect nonrecurring to be a drag on revenue growth as we lap large strategic partnership deals and pivot from license to recurring.

Turning now to Slide 18 for some additional commentary. Our 2027 margins will be impacted by the reduction in nonrecurring revenue and investment in Cyber & Security. The reduction in nonrecurring revenue will weigh on margins with an anticipated impact of 75 to 145 basis points.

As such, we expect margins to be flat to down 100 basis points. Absent these nonrecurring impacts, core margins are expected to expand by roughly 45 to 75 basis points. We are also providing assumptions across several below-the-line items, including interest and tax.

As a result, we expect adjusted EPS to decline in the high single to low double-digit range. Turning to cash flow. We are confident free cash flow growth will continue to outpace earnings in 2027, fueled by continued working capital programs and a further decline in non-GAAP cash expenses.

Finally, I want to emphasize 3 points before moving on. First, this is a preliminary view of 2027, incorporating a number of prudent assumptions. Second, we believe the current outlook is not indicative of the long-term revenue and earnings power of this business.

We anticipate a return to more normalized growth in 2028. Third, free cash flow will continue to outpace net earnings. Turning now to Slide 19 for a recap. While our third quarter results were in line with expectations, banking recurring growth was weaker than anticipated.

We have reduced our 2026 outlook to reflect client-led delays, the impact of select bank M&A and updated nonrecurring assumptions. And we have provided a preliminary view for 2027, reflecting steady recurring growth and progress on core margins.

However, these will be offset by a significant reduction in nonrecurring revenue as we lap strategic partnership deals and elevated termination fees. While this will temper near-term financial results, we are confident in the long-term durability of the business. Free cash flow remains robust and we are confident cash flow will continue to grow ahead of earnings. With that, operator, could you please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question or comment comes from the line of Ramsey El-Assal from Cantor Figerald.

Phần hỏi đáp

Ramsey El-Assal

Stephanie, in the context of the forward view that you provided, I appreciate all the color on the nonrecurring headwinds you're facing, license fees, conversion delays, deals lapping, et cetera.

Are you seeing any other external factors pressuring numbers, competition, need for higher levels of business investment, or termination fee, cadence changing over time as the industry consolidates. I'm just curious if you're seeing anything that sort of -- with the market sort of or the demand environment evolving around you? And any commentary on how you can address those changing conditions would be helpful?

Stephanie Ferris

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ramsey. And what I would say is competition remains strong and stable.

As I said in my prepared remarks, demand coming from our clients is high. It's high in terms of both products and solutions to help grow their business. It's also high in terms of making sure that they and we can prioritize cyber and resiliency activities.

So I don't see significant changes in competition. I think the competition remains steady and stable. I gave you some clear of the metrics in terms of wins. We still feel really good about where we're positioned and how our solutions are really being seen in the marketplace and winning. I think in terms of term fees, and we talked about this, we have seen, as you guys know, a higher level of what I would call large-scale bank M&A. So think about Huntington Cadence, Fifth Third, Comerica, we talk about -- we generally end up on the positive side of that, but that is larger than normal in '25 and '26. I don't have anything expectations in '27 at that size and scale, but TBD.

I think in that in terms of we do win on those over the period, but we will take some timing compression and conversion as those work through our P&L.

In terms of license in the market, I think this has been a consistent trend across the industry where clients do not want to buy on-prem license activity.

As you know, we primarily have historically sold that in the capital markets and in the international part of the banking business.

And with the onset of AI, really just the consumption of our subscription and SaaS products because out of those, they can also subscribe to our data products, which is what they need to actually drive their AI products forward.

So generally, I would say it's all stable. We did talk about some client-directed changes. We see that in the larger part of the customer base versus the smaller part of the customer space. And we feel really good about those aren't canceled. Those are just moving time lines out.

Operator

Our next question comment comes from the line of Tim Jen Wong from JPMorgan.

Tien-Tsin Huang

Just wanted to clarify, if you don't mind. Just some of the client delays. Is that related to a shift in client focus towards cyber and some of the ramps are just getting reprioritized. Just want to make sure I understand if those are related or if I heard it wrong. And then just on the softer demand for license, you said you just talked about it with the change in how clients want to consume content. How long would it take to convert these potential license deals here to the consumption model. I mean do you have a time frame because we've seen this kind of move before with right shift to subscription. Do you have a time frame in mind?

Stephanie Ferris

Yes. Thanks, Tien-tsin. So on the client-directed delays, they are in our larger part of our customer base. And I can't say specifically they're related to cyber because it's obviously based on what's happening at each individual client. .

But we do see in the larger bank customer space, there is certainly a reprioritization of activities inside the banks to make sure that they and we can get through and make sure everything is as secure as possible.

The good news on all of these projects is they've been replanned. There really haven't been any terminated. And so I would say there's a mix. But given that they're in the larger part of the market, from a demand standpoint versus the small, could be more cyber related.

I know some other tech firms have talked about that as well. In terms of the license, I think to be fair on this, it's a good thing over time. As you know, we've been moving our business to a higher level of recurring.

The products in market are taking shape in terms of the demand. It will be a slow to modest change as it has been. We wouldn't expect to see licenses continue to go up as demand shifts to subscription revenue.

And so I think as we're talking about it, we're simply saying we wouldn't expect a license to continue to increase over time. It would stay flat to moderate but there's no initial switch where we're going to throw the whole thing, and that's not how the business would work. So it's more of a modest change. We're just not expecting increasing license revenue as those products get reprioritized with our subscription-based products.

Tien-Tsin Huang

Got it. No, that answers it well. And all the best to you, James.

Operator

Our next question comment comes from the line of Darrin Peller from Wolfe Research.

Darrin Peller

All right. James all the best to you as well. Stephanie, can we just touch on how much of the '27 guidance is really a function of you deciding to formally not include or rely on nonrecurring revenue in your outlook anymore rather than just really focus on what you know in terms of recurring.

And then on that note, I mean, what exactly would you say is changing in terms of -- on a segment by segment, if you look at the 2 segments basis, in terms of the recurring revenue forecast, said another way, what's changed in terms of demand that you believe might be slightly different in either of the 2 segments, if you could walk through what you're seeing that you incorporated in that '27 outlook more fundamentally besides just the nonrecurring side.

Stephanie Ferris

Sure. Maybe I'll take it and James can add on. First, in terms of conversion timing, the client-led delays we talked about are about timing. They're not about demand. Our framework does assume some of them delay into next year as the clients have pushed out their implementation dates. And some of that's related to, obviously, their own projects going on. If they're completed sooner, we would expect the recurring revenue to accelerate faster than we've assumed, but it is about conversion timing. .

Also, we think the nonrecurring headwind is temporary as we lap the activation of our strategic distribution partnership channel and from the term fees normalizing.

So we expect that to largely dissipate in 2027 and 2028. That's why we talked about a baseline organic growth being consistent with what we're seeing in '26. I think we're seeing -- we've really attempted to do set a baseline that we believe is more prudent given as we come into this quarter.

So I think we feel pretty good about the trends, and we were trying to be as transparent as possible with what's going on. Maybe James can add a few comments.

James Kehoe

No, I think it's useful just to step back, it was Slide 17 of the drivers in 2027. And what we said was the organic growth is a range of 2.5% to 3%, and that's pretty consistent with what was done in the past and the massive swing factor is this 250 to 300 basis points on nonrecurring and you multiply it by simplistically take 3% of $13.5 billion. That's a $400 million change.

So it's pretty substantial. And I'll give you the 4 drivers because transparency is important here. One is we're lapping the strategic initiative deals. So these are partnerships that will drive recurring revenue longer term, that's $140 million, rough numbers, $140 million.

The second big piece is Stephanie already referred to it is the level of trade consolidation in both 2025 and in 2026 is at levels that we've never seen in the past.

So we're reverting to the mean of level of trade consolidation. So assuming no large trade consolidations, and that has an impact, rough numbers, $100 million year-on-year.

So we're moving away. We're reducing versus the base year to reflect a much lower level of trade consolidation. The third one then is within the banking business, we have had a lot of nonrecurring revenue on equipment-type businesses, which are very, very low margin.

We have taken the opportunity to exit this low-margin business, and that's in the region of $75 million to $100 million. So this is stuff that on its best day, you're making 5% to 10% margin on.

So of little consequence any future strategy. The final piece, and it's about 50-ish kind of million is in capital markets. That is, call it, the rough quantification of a progressive reduction in licenses over a longer period.

But as Stephanie said, this will be managed over a 5- to 7-year time horizon. There will not be any large episodic change in the direction of Capital Markets license activity. But that $15 million type number, it's $50 million to $75 million, that will drive faster recurring revenue on an ongoing basis.

And even as we exit 2027, there will be faster revenue growth. So I wanted to give you the full detail on this $400 million because it truly is $300 of purely nonrecurring and we will emphasize this is a prudent set of estimates, which basically says you're reverting back to term fees in '23, '24 levels.

And you will not repeat any ESI deals and then you are moving capital markets away from license to recurring on a measured basis. So I'll stop there.

Operator

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Dan Dale from Mizuho.

Dan Dolev

Stephanie. There is some speculation that one of your peers could be going private according to the press. Given the valuation the stock reaction today, how are you thinking about the benefits of being public versus private?

Stephanie Ferris

Yes. Thanks, Dan. So look, I think you know that we are really focused here in terms of doing the right thing for our customers, doing the right thing for our investors. And so we will always be looking at what the right level there is and what the right structure is. So we're obviously always open.

I think, though, what we have proven here today or what we're trying to emphasize here today is being very transparent on the evolution of this business and taking all the right decisions and making the right decisions to support safety and security and ultimately, our clients' outcomes that they need.

So we will always be focused on investor returns and focused on clients, and we're interested to see how the industry evolves.

Operator

Our next question comment comes from the line of Matthew O'Neill from Bank of America.

Matthew O'Neill

Stephanie, for taking the question. I was just curious if you could update the leverage discussion sort of post the asset swap? I think at last reading it was $2.8 million turns within 18 months of close, which put it somewhere around mid-27% towards 28%.

But as we think about a flat free cash flow outlook for '27. I think that's somewhere around $1.3 billion or so after dividend. That would put $2.8 million potentially later. And so I just wondering if you can give more of a formal update on that part of the outlook and the sort of balance of debt pay down and resumption of future share repurchase timing?

James Kehoe

Yes. So, I'll take this one. You have seen the current year of cash flow performance. And I want to reiterate the current guide is $2.2 billion, which is at the midpoint which is EUR 100 million above what we guided at the beginning of the year.

So I would say, despite the pressures on EBITDA in the current year, we're significantly outperforming on free cash. And then secondly, it's up 40% year-on-year driven by the contribution from thesis, but strong working capital initiatives.

So as you look forward on cash, the good news is we have a pipeline of working capital initiatives and that in 2027, '28 and '29, far exceed what we've delivered in 2025 and 2026. And to put it in perspective, the working capital initiatives in both of those years were in excess of $250 million. That's in '25 and '26.

We expect the next 2 years to be at a higher level. We're moving into Phase 2 of this. So I think number one is the one to you on the free cash flow. It will continue to strongly outpace net earnings full stop. Two, because there's 2 levers. And we're increasingly -- we increasingly have better visibility on them, which is one is working capital, which I just discussed, and the other is the reduction in onetime non-GAAP expenses, where in the current year, we actually took them down aggressively versus the original guide.

I think it was about $70 million. So roughly a 10% reduction. And there will be a further sizable reduction each year over the next 2 years. And once you cycle through thesis, they are actually -- they should trend to a very low level.

To get back to your direct question, that being said, the pressure on EBITDA is the -- so we don't have an issue on free cash flow. The pressure is on EBITDA because it's the most important metric on calculating the debt-to-EBITDA ratio.

So we have an impact on the timing of getting to this $2.8 million -- the reason I cannot commit to a number is what I'm leaving, but number 2 is -- number 2 is the forecast is based on a series of prudent assumptions and they are prudent that I really want to emphasize, there are proven assumptions across nonrecurring, somewhat prudent on the recurring. And we have to see how these, call it, pan out in the -- once we get into budgeting cycle.

The other one is a positive impact from the strategic review process will go a long way. Depending on the icons, will go a long way to offsetting pressure on EBITDA.

So I'm not confirming the prior guide, but I'm saying it's maybe not as bad as the math would lead you to believe. That's the way. So summarizing EBITDA, will put pressure on the EBITDA -- sorry, on achieving the 2.8 billion. If we push out when you can get back to share repurchases.

But there's a large potential of it from the strategic review process. And I would say a large potential offset on free cash flow is coming in stronger every quarter. The programs we set were generally over delivering in every quarter, quarter-by-quarter, day by day.

So I think there's opportunities to offset some of the EBITDA pressure.

Matthew O'Neill

I really appreciate that detail. Maybe as a quick follow-up since you mentioned the strategic review. Is that still limited to select capital markets products? Or is the purview of the strategic review possibly expand it or maybe it was always larger but maybe the probabilities of something larger has changed.

Maybe it's sort of an in-between question following up on Dan's previous 1 about sort of public first private dynamics broadly?

Stephanie Ferris

Yes. Great question. Look, the strategic review remains ongoing. And you can see this quarter, we actually sold business out of the banking portfolio. So while we are focused in capital markets, we're always focused across the entire portfolio and are evaluating what makes sense to keep within the enterprise with a focus on deepening relationships with our FIS and expanding cross-sell. And to the extent that doesn't make any sense, we're actively looking across not just capital markets, but obviously banking, as you can see from the sale of the noncore prepaid business.

So we'll continue, as James mentioned, the strategic review continues. It is across the entire company, and we'll look to give a more fulsome update when we come back to you when we give the year-end review, and we'll have a better view of that.

Matthew O'Neill

Appreciate it. I'll jump back in.

Operator

Our next question comment comes from the line of Jason Kupferberg from Wells Fargo.

Jason Kupferberg

Thanks for all the detail regarding next year. I wanted to come back to the banking segment for a second and the client-led implementation delays. Can you give us a sense of how many clients we're talking about here? And what types of circumstances drove the delays and then as we think about the recurring growth outlook for banking next year, a 3% number, I know that's a little bit lower than what you've been seeing year-to-date in 2026. So is that 3% recurring growth for next year, assume that these delayed implementations help recurring growth next year? And if so, what are the potential offsets?

Stephanie Ferris

Yes, Jason, thanks for the question. It's generally less than 10 clients. And so as I said, they've been generally larger and the implementations range where some have already restarted their implementation in the fourth quarter.

Some have replanned into the end of first quarter and some are into Q3 next year. So we do expect all of the benefits of those to come back into 2027. However, on the timing that the clients are telling us we're going to go live on and so don't expect to get the full year but we do still feel good about all of those delays coming back into 2027, albeit we'll have some timing impact.

Jason Kupferberg

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up. The investment -- the new investments in tech and security, cyber, et cetera. How do those phase in? And can you size those for us? I don't know if this is all OpEx or a little bit of CapEx, too, but the numbers on timing would be great.

Stephanie Ferris

Yes. I'll talk a little bit about it, maybe James can give some views of how to think about it in terms of margin.

We have been investing significantly since 2024 in terms of resiliency which cyber and resiliency really go together.

And you've seen that in our investment profile primarily in capital as we refresh the hardware and the software and make sure that we are best-in-class in terms of cyber defense, and we will continue to do that.

So we've had a pretty high level of investment here going on. I think the way to think about it is it will continue as it is today.

However, it's offsetting some of the benefits of our cost programs falling through to margin. And so maybe I'll ask James to talk a little bit about how to think about it at a high level OpEx, CapEx, but it isn't necessarily an incremental step-up year-over-year, but ongoing, and I may need to offset some of the benefits of the cost programs.

James Kehoe

Yes. I think it's -- if you're looking at the margin projection we gave for next year, 0 to 100 basis points, you're looking at licenses between low and high end, 75 to 145 bps and a rough estimate on cyber and security is 20 to 30 basis points. That's a rough estimate.

So we are investing to ensure highest grade of security and resiliency. The other part where you're going to see some impact is it's going to feed through and higher depreciation.

We have already all of this year, spent considerably more and capital expenditure, and we're talking large amounts of money.

But if you look into next year, the incremental year-on-year on CapEx is in the region of $50 million. So it's not a massive number, but you're coming off a very high base here.

This year already, we ramped up capital expenditure on purchased assets to -- on major refreshes and then on cyber as we exit the year.

Bear in mind, the incremental CapEx next year, that's included in the cash flow projection for '27.

Operator

Our next question or comment comes from the line of Will Katz from Goldman Sachs.

William Nance

I want to go back to, I think, to Aaron's question on the recurring assumptions into next year and looking at the 3% growth in -- on the banking side, understanding that's relatively consistent with where we shook out this quarter. So I guess my question is, how do we assess the degree of conservatism in the organic growth outlook? It sounds like some of the delays that are leading to lower growth right now will have some timing impacts on next year.

And so when we think about the kind of the baseline of organic growth next year, how much of the lower level of organic growth next year relative to kind of what you've targeted historically in the business comes from those timing impacts versus maybe a degree of prudence around the expectations into next year or an expectation that we continue to see timing pushouts in 2027?

Stephanie Ferris

Well, I think we're going to have to come back to you as we do detailed planning. I mean at this point, we're giving you expectations based on what we know now.

We hope that the numbers would be bigger but grow faster. But at this point, I don't think we have that level of detail to share. We'll have to come back to you in the year-end call and give you a much better view of that.

William Nance

Okay. All right. Let me try a more near-term 1 here. Just on the banking performance in the quarter, the payments revenue growth took a step down sequentially, a very strong quarter last quarter now, I think, kind of operating below the mid-single digits you guys have talked about historically. So what drove that? Are the implementation delays hitting that line in particular? And just how do you kind of think about the durability of payments growth?

Stephanie Ferris

Yes. So we still feel really good about payments growth generally. We did see some first half to second half changes a little bit of client-led delays.

But as you think about going from first half to second half, there's client-led delay impacts there as well as, again, a bit of the M&A consolidation impacting their. We feel -- continue to feel really good about the payments business and its growth trajectory. So no changes there, but higher levels in the first half versus the second half because of those trends. I don't know, James, if there's anything...

James Kehoe

I think the payments is particularly impacted because the M&A contribution that we had in the first half was mostly coming from Everlink and we're lapping that in the second half.

So that will naturally pull down the payments relative to the banking segment. And then we have 2 businesses, EBT and prepaid businesses that are highly dependent on, call it, government-funded programs.

And we have seen a fairly material reduction in the number of -- not the volume of transactions per person but on the number of participants in programs like Snap and that has caused both the variance versus expectation and a pretty material slowdown if you take first half, second half, you're talking north of 100 basis points.

So we think that will continue because it kind of links into 2027. It will continue into the first half and 2027 as will trade consolidation. But exiting 2027, it will be more positive.

But generally, the payments volumes, just if you take issuer volumes on debit and credit, they're performing consistently in Q3 compared to Q2 and first half.

Operator

Our next question comment comes from the line of Rayna Kumar from Oppenheimer & Company.

Rayna Kumar

For the insights. How much of the delayed recurring revenue is contractually secured and when will it convert? And then I'll just ask my follow-up upfront. How should we think about the growth algorithm of FIS beyond 2027?

Stephanie Ferris

Almost all of the delayed client conversions are contractually required and almost all of them have already been planned in terms of the dates as they come into next year. So I think we feel good about that. On the growth algorithm of FIS, I think that the way to think about it is 80% of our revenue is recurring in nature.

And while we've had some temporary softness tied to client-led implementation delays, this still provides a steady foundation for future growth with expanding margins.

The market continues to be receptive to our products that are really driving recurring revenue, which is resulting in a little bit of a timing difference between license and recurring.

I would say we employ a one-to-many business model, where our clients leverage us for a fixed cost platform, meaning we see incremental margins on all new sales. Lastly, we generate significant free cash flow that we'll continue to use to delever and ultimately return to shareholders.

As a reminder, our year-to-date cash flow of $1.9 billion is up 57% and we reaffirm that full year outlook despite the lower EBITDA. We do expect free cash flow to continue to outpace earnings. And so I would say, stepping back, that's kind of how I think about the thesis of FIS.

I think it remains consistent with historical and remains as we look into the future.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have time for 1 more question. Our final question will come from the line of Bryan Bergin from TD Cowen.

Bryan Bergin

Can you comment on Thesis as far as cost and revenue synergy realization there? Is there any change for you on the targets as far as the strategy change impacting anything in TSYS and are you assuming any of the cross-sell benefit embedded in that preliminary '27 banking outlook and then my follow-up question will be on free cash flow. So holding that flat next year despite the earnings hit -- can you just quantify the contribution from lower non-GAAP costs versus working capital optimization? And is there anything nonsustainable, i.e., timing related to benefit you there next year?

Stephanie Ferris

We're not changing anything related to our expectations around synergies and I'll let James answer the free cash flow question.

James Kehoe

Yes. And the free cash flow, if you look into next year, how we can hold it, it's roughly half and half split between onetime expense and working capital. .

But there's a lot of factors that play into the cash flow. It's the EBITDA flow -- EBITDA flow through, what do you sell a license versus recurring so many of different pieces, but we're incredibly comfortable on the ability to drive cash flow at a much faster pace as demonstrated in the current year, where cash flow is up 40%.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the Q&A program. Thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.