Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của Camping World (CWH): Cắt giảm chi phí bù đắp áp lực lên biên lợi nhuận

Thông tin chính

• Camping World Holdings (NYSE: CWH) đã báo cáo EBITDA điều chỉnh Quý 3/2026 đạt 36 triệu USD. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết nếu không tính khoản điều chỉnh dự phòng hoàn trả F&I trị giá 12,7 triệu USD, lợi nhuận sẽ đạt khoảng 49 triệu USD.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp xe mới giảm xuống 10,2% do nhu cầu yếu hơn và các chương trình khuyến mại mạnh tay trong ngành đã bù trừ cho mức tăng gần 12% của giá bán trung bình.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp xe đã qua sử dụng tăng 150 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước lên 18%, nhờ lượng hàng tồn kho tinh gọn và mới hơn. Số lượng xe đã qua sử dụng bán ra tại cùng một cửa hàng giảm khoảng 9%.
• Chi phí SG&A giảm thêm 24 triệu USD so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và giảm khoảng 80 triệu USD trong 9 tháng đầu năm. Chương trình cắt giảm chi phí tính theo năm của công ty hiện đã vượt quá 150 triệu USD.
• Dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh đạt 488 triệu USD trong 9 tháng đầu năm. Dư nợ vay tài trợ hàng tồn kho giảm 349 triệu USD và lượng tiền mặt cuối quý đạt tổng cộng 263 triệu USD.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tổng sản lượng xe mới và xe đã qua sử dụng bán ra trong Quý 4 sẽ giảm với tốc độ so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái tương tự như Quý 3, trong khi biên lợi nhuận xe mới có thể cải thiện 50–100 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Khả năng sinh lời của mảng xe mới là rào cản chính đối với kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3. Hoạt động khuyến mại gia tăng khi các đại lý đối thủ giảm giá các dòng xe cũ và thuộc đời xe năm trước. Camping World quyết định không chạy đua theo mức giá cạnh tranh nhất, chấp nhận giảm bớt một phần sản lượng và thị phần để bảo vệ biên lợi nhuận.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết doanh số bán xe mới tại cùng một cửa hàng đã cải thiện theo từng tháng: từ mức giảm ở vùng cao của khoảng 20% trong tháng 7 xuống mức giảm ở vùng thấp của khoảng 20% trong tháng 8, giảm ở vùng cao của khoảng 10-20% trong tháng 9 và giảm ở vùng thấp của khoảng 10-20% trong tháng 10. Công ty tin rằng xu hướng của mình đã vượt trội hơn so với thị trường xe RV mới diện rộng vốn vẫn còn yếu trong tháng 9 và tháng 10.

Chất lượng hàng tồn kho đã được cải thiện. Tỷ lệ xe RV mới thuộc đời xe năm trước đạt mức thấp nhất trong 5 năm, trong khi hàng tồn kho xe đã qua sử dụng lưu kho trên 180 ngày giảm khoảng 25% tính theo giá vốn so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Khoảng 61% hàng tồn kho xe mới là các dòng xe thuộc đời năm 2027.

Good Sam tiếp tục là nguồn lợi nhuận định kỳ, ít thâm dụng vốn chủ chốt. Hơn 60% lợi nhuận gộp của công ty hiện đến từ F&I, dịch vụ và phụ tùng, cũng như Good Sam. Sau khi cải tổ hệ thống, Good Sam có thể bán các sản phẩm dịch vụ mở rộng, cứu hộ đường bộ và bảo hiểm cho các đại lý và đối tác bên ngoài ở quy mô lớn.

Công ty cũng đã triển khai phần mềm CRM bán xe RV do nội bộ tự phát triển trên tất cả các địa điểm. Những ghi nhận ban đầu cho thấy số lượt tiếp cận ban đầu trong vòng 5 phút đã tăng hơn 150%, trong khi thời gian từ khi nhận được thông tin khách hàng tiềm năng đến lần tương tác đầu tiên đã giảm 70%.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Camping World dự kiến EBITDA điều chỉnh cả năm 2026 sẽ thấp hơn mức đáy của khoảng dự báo trước đó. Do tính chất mùa vụ của Quý 4 và độ nhạy đối với sản lượng bán ra cùng biên lợi nhuận, ban lãnh đạo không cung cấp triển vọng điều chỉnh cho cả năm.

Đối với Quý 4/2026, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến:

• Tổng sản lượng xe mới và xe đã qua sử dụng bán ra giảm ở mức khoảng 15% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, nhìn chung tương đương với Quý 3.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp xe mới cải thiện khoảng 50–100 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước.
• Chi phí SG&A giảm hơn 50 triệu USD so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Công ty dự kiến chi phí SG&A năm 2026 sẽ kết thúc ở mức thấp hơn khoảng 130 triệu USD so với năm 2025. Chương trình cắt giảm chi phí tính theo năm của công ty hiện vượt quá 150 triệu USD, bao gồm chương trình tái cấu trúc 100 triệu USD đã công bố trước đó và ít nhất 50 triệu USD từ các hành động tinh giảm nhân sự và quy mô cửa hàng bổ sung.

Đối với năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ tiết kiệm thêm 75 triệu USD hàng năm. Kết hợp với việc biên lợi nhuận gộp bình thường hóa ở mức khiêm tốn và lạm phát chi phí thông thường, các yếu tố này dự kiến sẽ mang lại lợi ích bổ sung cho lợi nhuận khoảng 60 triệu USD đến 70 triệu USD. Chi phí đầu tư cơ bản gộp dự kiến vẫn ở mức dưới 80 triệu USD và ban lãnh đạo hiện kỳ vọng dòng tiền tự do dương, bao gồm cả tác động tiềm ẩn từ việc tái cơ cấu khoản nợ thuộc các cơ sở tín dụng có tài sản đảm bảo cấp cao.

Kế hoạch khung cho ngành năm 2027 của ban lãnh đạo giả định doanh số bán lẻ xe RV mới có thể đi ngang hoặc giảm ở mức giữa 1 chữ số, trong khi bán lẻ xe đã qua sử dụng có thể giữ ở mức tương đối đi ngang. Kết quả phụ thuộc một phần vào niềm tin người tiêu dùng, lạm phát và các chỉ báo tâm lý khác.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Biên lợi nhuận xe RV mới tiếp tục chịu áp lực từ nhu cầu yếu và chính sách giá khuyến mại.
• Giá năng lượng, lạm phát chung và tâm lý người tiêu dùng yếu hơn có thể tiếp tục kéo dài sang đầu năm 2027.
• Quý 4 là giai đoạn thấp điểm nhất theo mùa của công ty, làm tăng độ nhạy của lợi nhuận trước những thay đổi tương đối nhỏ về sản lượng và biên lợi nhuận.
• Công ty dự kiến chi phí tái cơ cấu nợ có thể cao hơn so với hạn mức hiện tại, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo mô tả mức tăng tiềm năng này là trong tầm kiểm soát.
• Tỷ lệ hủy hợp đồng F&I tăng nhẹ, dẫn đến việc điều chỉnh khoản dự phòng 12,7 triệu USD.
• Các biện pháp chi phí bao gồm việc cắt giảm gần 15% nhân sự và đóng cửa 4 đại lý. Việc tuyển dụng lại hoặc mở lại cửa hàng có thể diễn ra nếu nhu cầu cải thiện.

Điểm nhấn phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết biên lợi nhuận gộp xe mới trong dài hạn có thể quay trở lại khoảng 13%–14% khi người tiêu dùng thích nghi với lãi suất cao hơn cũng như thu nhập và tài sản của hộ gia đình tăng lên. Trong 6 đến 12 tháng tới, công ty dự kiến mức cải thiện hạn chế hơn khoảng 100 điểm cơ bản so với mức cuối năm. Biên lợi nhuận xe đã qua sử dụng có thể cải thiện thêm khoảng 100 điểm cơ bản nữa, tùy thuộc vào nguồn hàng và cơ cấu sản phẩm.

Camping World dự kiến sẽ khôi phục phần thị phần đã mất gần đây mà không từ bỏ kỷ luật về biên lợi nhuận. Thị phần xe RV mới tại Bắc Mỹ trong 12 tháng gần nhất của công ty duy trì ở mức khoảng 21%, trong khi thị phần tại Mỹ đạt khoảng 24,5% và thị phần xe đã qua sử dụng đạt khoảng 8,4%.

Các thương hiệu độc quyền chiếm khoảng 47%–48% doanh số bán xe mới trong Quý 3, nhưng ban lãnh đạo không kỳ vọng tỷ lệ này sẽ tăng đáng kể. Sự gia tăng giá bán trung bình chủ yếu do cơ cấu sản phẩm xe nhà lưu động và xe kéo fifth-wheel mạnh mẽ hơn, bao gồm việc tăng thị phần ở dòng xe motorhome Class C.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết chương trình cắt giảm chi phí bổ sung 50 triệu USD đã hoàn thành. Khoảng một nửa trong chương trình 100 triệu USD ban đầu gắn liền với hiệu quả nhân sự và vận hành, phần còn lại được hỗ trợ bởi các sáng kiến ứng dụng AI nhằm giảm chi phí phần mềm và nâng cao năng suất.

Công ty hiện không có kế hoạch bán Good Sam hay các tài sản lớn khác. Công ty có thể bán bất động sản gắn liền với các đại lý mới đóng cửa gần đây, trong khi việc giảm đòn bẩy tài chính dự kiến sẽ đến chủ yếu từ tiết kiệm chi phí, thắt chặt chi phí đầu tư cơ bản và cải thiện khả năng tạo dòng tiền.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Camping World Holdings conference call to discuss financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that this call is being recorded, and the reproduction of the call in whole or in part is not permitted without written authorization from the company.

Joining on the call today are Matthew Wagner, Chief Executive Officer and President; Tom Kern, Chief Financial Officer; and Brett Andress, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.

I will turn the call over to Mr. Andress to get us started.

Brett Andress

Good morning, and thank you, everyone. A press release covering the company's third quarter ended September 30, 2026. Financial results was issued yesterday afternoon, and a copy of that press release can be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website.

Management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These remarks may include statements regarding our business plans and goals, macroeconomic and industry trends, customer trends, inventory strategy, future growth of our operations, capital allocation, future financial results and position, future SG&A savings and operating efficiencies, potential refinancing of our senior secured credit facilities, and actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K, our Form 10-Qs and other reports on file with the SEC.

Any forward-looking statements represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them. Please note that we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, such as EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share diluted, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance.

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial statements are included in our earnings release and on our website. All comparisons of our 2026 third quarter results are made against the 2026 2025 third quarter results, unless otherwise noted.

I'll now turn the call over to Matt.

Matt Wagner

Thanks, Brett. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our third quarter 2026 earnings call. Today, we will walk through the quarter's results the timing of our cost reductions and our priorities as we prepare for 2027. When we spoke in July, we expected vehicle margins to improve as we move beyond the inventory actions taken in the first half of the year. Both used margins and GPU improved, but new margins declined further as demand weakened and promotional pressure intensified across the industry.

In the third quarter, we reduced SG&A by another $24 million year-over-year, but those savings did not offset the decline in gross profit. That said, I am tremendously proud of our team and the measurable progress made against key priorities this quarter. We grew our new vehicle average selling price by nearly 12%, driven by share gains in fifth wheels and motorized. We improved used vehicle gross margin 150 basis points sequentially to 18% on leaner, fresher used inventory.

We expanded -- Good Sam Services and Plans gross margin to over 62%. We reduced our SG&A roughly $80 million year-to-date. And through the first nine months, we generated $488 million of operating cash flow and reduced floor plan borrowings by $349 million, ending the quarter with over $260 million of cash.

We entered the fourth quarter with a largely rebuilt cost base and a healthy inventory position. These are the building blocks of a stronger company, and I'm proud of the way this team continues to execute. For the quarter, our reported adjusted EBITDA was $36 million, and I'll note, this also includes the unfavorable impact of $12.7 million of an F&I chargeback reserve adjustment, which excluding this charge, would have been $49 million of earnings.

The new vehicle market became increasingly promotional as the third quarter progressed as competing dealerships who had not derisked their inventory in the first half worked to aggressively move aged and prior model year units in the back half of the selling season.

We made the decision not to chase that pricing, and it cost us some unit volume and some new unit market share in the quarter against last year's record. But we would make that trade again at these margins if we had to. New gross margin came in at 10.2%, and this was a significant driver of the results in the quarter.

Turning to used. Same-store units were down about 9% in the quarter as the broader Used RV market softened starting in August, where we held our pricing discipline. The result was an 18% used gross margin, up from 16.5% in the second quarter on reduced used inventory levels that are turning faster.

I want to put a finer point on the current health of our inventory position. Our mix of prior model year new RV in the ground is the lowest it's been in five years. And we reduced the position of our used units aged over 180 days by the largest amount in the last six years. Our Aged used inventory is now down roughly 25% on a cost basis from a year ago.

Turning to SG&A efficiency. In July, we laid out $100 million of annualized savings across 20 initiatives. And when new margins came under greater pressure than we anticipated, we moved. Between August and September, we reduced our headcount by nearly 15%. We expect those actions to generate at least $50 million of incremental annualized savings reflected in our run rate beginning in the fourth quarter.

We closed four dealerships, two of which we intend to reopen when the market supports it, and we accelerated the July savings program on top of that. The in-house RV sales CRM we built in four months was in five stores when we spoke in July. By the end of September, it was live in all of our locations.

The third-party systems in replace are retired along with our license fees and the service CRM is following on a similar path. Our new CRM is already helping us deliver a better customer experience with faster response times and more consistent follow-up. In early post-rollout observations, we saw initial outreach within five minutes increased by over 150% and the time gap between lead and first interaction declined 70%.

We are also seeing notable increases in appointments per lead and show rates. In short, we are seeing less friction for our customers and more productivity out of our sales professionals. We expect fourth quarter SG&A dollars to be more than $50 million lower than last year. These actions are intended to improve operating leverage, support margins and strengthen cash flow. There is more work to do, but the operating model and cost structure entering the fourth quarter are meaningfully different from a year ago.

Switching over to Good Sam. The Services and Plan segment gross margin expanded over 550 basis points to 62.3%, and the segment held adjusted EBITDA flat at $21.4 million on lower revenue. With the systems overhaul complete, the team is now able to sell our extended service, roadside and insurance products to other dealers and partners at scale for the first time.

Good Sam is recurring. It is capital light. It runs north of 60% gross margin, and it is tied to the 6 million RVs on the road. It remains a cornerstone of our long-term growth, and we believe it is a strong demonstration of why our model holds up better than unit sales suggests. More than 60% of our gross profit now comes from F&I, service and parts and Good Sam.

Before I hand it off to Tom, I want to spend a minute on some of our initial thoughts on the RV industry and our business entering 2027. Through August of this year, total combined new and used retail registrations in the U.S. tracked down 4.5% year-to-date, consisting of new down 16% and Used up 1%.

And if you look at our business on that same basis, this is similar to how our new and used business trended over this period as well. At this point, we expect that a lot of the underlying macro trends weighing on consumer sentiment today like energy prices and general inflation are likely to remain in place into early next year.

And if these conditions hold, we would expect industry-wide new retail to be roughly flat to down mid-single digits and for used retail to be roughly flat. For the fourth quarter, we are expecting total new and used unit volume to decline at a similar pace to what we experienced in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis.

I'll now turn the call over to Tom.

Thomas Kirn

Thanks, Matt. As we recently communicated, we expect full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be below the low end of our previous guidance range. We expect fourth quarter SG&A to improve by more than $50 million year-over-year. While total unit sales trends have shown periods of stabilization from August through September and into October, front-end margins remain under pressure. The fourth quarter is typically our seasonally lightest period and changes in unit volume and margins can have a significant positive or negative effect on earnings. Given that variability, we are not providing a full year 2026 outlook at this time.

Now I want to provide some modeling clarity to help reconcile two separate cost program numbers we've spoken to. Last quarter, we outlined approximately $100 million of structural SG&A savings. In October, we added at least $50 million more through additional headcount and footprint actions, bringing the total of our annualized cost program to over $150 million.

To keep all these cost savings simple, we expect to end 2026 with our SG&A roughly $130 million lower than 2025. This would represent the largest annual year-over-year SG&A decline since our company has been public, both in dollars and percentages. For 2027, we expect to realize an incremental $75 million of savings for the year.

And we also expect gross margins to normalize slightly over the course of the year. These two dynamics, combined with some ordinary cost inflation are expected to yield roughly $60 million to $70 million of additional earnings benefit next year. We ended the quarter with $263 million of cash and $444 million of working capital, driven primarily by the working capital benefit from lower inventory.

The book value of our real estate without an associated mortgage at the end of the quarter was just over $200 million. Year-to-date, we've spent roughly $92 million in gross capital expenditures before sale leasebacks. For 2027, we expect gross capital expenditures to be below $80 million. In the quarter, we also amended our mortgage facility with M&T Bank, extending its maturity to August 2031. As a reminder, the term loan is scheduled to mature in June 2028, and we continue to evaluate refinancing options for the senior secured credit facilities to increase financial flexibility.

Finally, as a frame of reference, based on the cost measures we've taken and our restraints on capital expenditures, we currently expect the business to generate positive free cash flow in 2027, including after giving effect to a potential refinancing of our senior secured credit facilities.

With that, I'll turn it back over to Matt.

Matt Wagner

This quarter, we've implemented additional cost actions, reduced our exposure to older inventory and improved our cash position and continue to expand margins in Good Sam. Our priorities are clear: remain focused on SG&A efficiency, maintain inventory and capital discipline and execute consistently against the demand in front of us.

We will now turn the call over to Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from James Hardiman at Citi.

Phần hỏi đáp

James Hardiman

So I was hoping you could sort of walk us -- well, I guess, take us back to the second quarter call and sort of walk us through what you saw from an industry perspective and within your business. You gave us some breadcrumbs in the prepared remarks.

But just wondering how things trended over the course of the quarter and into the fourth quarter with a particular focus on sort of that September, October period where, a, we don't really have very good data as analysts and investors. But be, we also saw interest rates go up, consumer confidence go down. And so just trying to sort of understand whether there was an incremental leg down or sort of the run rate that we were previously seeing has continued.

Matt Wagner

And just to take us back from the second quarter call to where we are today, we ended July, and we suggested on the Q2 call that we were facing acute sales pressure on new RV sales in particular. And we ended July with new same-store sales being down high 20. And then we transitioned into August, and we saw that our trend line has slightly improved, but we were still down low 20s.

Transition into September, we are now down high teens. And then as we ended October just a couple of days ago, we actually ended up down low teens. So, we see sequentially in the new side of the business that our year-over-year trend has improved sequentially Bear in mind, though, in July and August, we were quite stunned by the promotional activity of our competition out there.

And we also recognize that in order for us to offset that general gain in sales, we, at that time, would have had to reduce our margins to uncomfortable levels where we would have barely covered our cost of capital, never mind the fixed cost that exists within our business as well.

We were able to get a little bit more creative in terms of sourcing inventory over that time period to actually improve our general margin profile from what was a pretty reduced amount in July once we consolidated the entire elimination. And we realized that we could then very gracely start to glide into this period on the new side of the business where not only could we at least bottom out our margins and not go below that 10% threshold and rather, as we forecast out for the balance of this year.

We believe that our new margins will continue to slightly improve where we think we can get another 50 to maybe 100 basis points of improvement from Q3 into Q4. But just as well, we realized that we couldn't necessarily continue down that trajectory of reducing margins and feeling that pain on the volume side just as well.

On the used side, that's where it was a little bit different trend line, where in July, we were roughly flat, down single digits. That persisted throughout August. But then in September, there was a little bit more pressure on the used side. And what we realized at that point in time was that we had been so conservative in replenishing our used inventory portfolio.

And we still believe that was the right approach in so much as there's a lot of things that could happen in Q4. Never mind as you're preparing for Q1 on the used side of the business. And as we've stated previously, James, new invoice prices and new pricing can have a disproportionate effect on the used marketplace, in particular.

So, if you take in combination with our competition reducing their prices being very promotional on the new side of the business in the summer months, that gave us a little bit of pause to consistently replenish on the used side of the business. Now that we're getting into -- further in the fourth quarter, we're starting to prep for next year, we're starting to see a cleaner line of sight of where new invoice prices are settling down.

And also, how we need to start to play the new side of the business, but also really providing greater clarity on the used side and where we could start to get a little bit more aggressive in our pursuit of certain used cohorts and vintages heading into next year.

Thomas Kirn

And James, the only thing I'd add from an industry standpoint, if you're thinking about the progression from on new RV sales from August to September to October based on what we can tell from our internal data from a number of different data sources that we use.

I would say that September probably got a couple of points marginally, I think, worse from a headline basis on the new domestic RV side. And based on what we're seeing in October, the industry probably was maybe a point or two worse than that. So, I think there's a little bit of degradation on the headline. But again, our trends are bucking that as Matt alluded to in his comments.

James Hardiman

Got it. That's really helpful. And then as we think about 2027, obviously, too early to give hard guidance. But we're starting to see the framework of a bridge, right? If the industry is flattish in terms of both new and maybe down a little bit in terms of new, but flattish, let's call it, overall based on what you laid out. And then we've got $75 million of SG&A, another, I think you said $60 million to $70 million maybe on the gross margin side.

Starting with this year's EBITDA, it sounds like we -- as we're bridging, we can add those cost saves. But I'm sure it's not that easy and that there are sort of offsets to some of those cost savings that we should be factoring in, whether it's the conversation around pricing. I'm not sure if that's going to be a positive or negative.

And then we really haven't talked a lot about inflation, which is unfortunately yet again a big topic across powersports and really across the broader market. So, help us think through what other pieces that we should be adding or subtracting to the math that we've already got beginning to come together.

Matt Wagner

So I think you actually just hit home on the principal inputs and variables where you are right, there's a $75 million of cost savings. We do believe that there's going to be some gross margin normalization where I would anticipate an improvement of 100 to 150 basis point improvement on the new side in particular, and on the used side, probably another 100 basis points, give or take.

But then also, you hit home on the final variable, general cost inflation. which we know inflation generally is in that 2% to 3% range, and that will just flow through the entire P&L in terms of general wages and general freight costs and a variety of other factors. But in terms of the general bridge, you almost need to start with where do you think this year ends, which we believe, as we said in the prepared remarks, that our fourth quarter is going to have units down combined new and used down mid-teens.

New might be down in that same range, used a little bit less. And then in terms of margins, we think it will be slightly better compared to 3Q. And SG&A will be down, though, $50 million year-over-year. So, if you start from that bridge and then you build to that 2027 bridge, you're in that range.

James Hardiman

Got it. That's helpful. And just to clarify, you don't -- the 2% to 3% normal inflation is pretty consistent with what you would anticipate for 2027?

Matt Wagner

Yes.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Healy at Northcoast Research.

John Healy

I was hoping, Matt, you could talk a little bit more about gross margins on the new side, not necessarily next quarter or even next year, but where do you think those are long term? Because to me, outside of SG&A, that's the biggest variable to get to some sort of estimate of a real earnings power of the company. So just your thoughts on -- is this still a low to mid-teen business on the new side? Or -- and how do you see us potentially going from here on a multiyear, a 3-year outlook or something like that?

Matt Wagner

Thanks, John. And I think you have to break this out into 2 separate categories, short term versus long term. I would anticipate, just given the general pricing pressures that exist in just about every industry right now and where consumer sentiment currently is sitting and never mind how interest rates rose pretty considerably over the last year.

I think for the American public, it just takes a moment to absorb an interest rate increase like that and then just perpetual inflationary costs. So short term, I would suggest that we could see a little bit of an improvement over the next six months to a year as we suggest maybe another 100 basis point improvement compared to where we'll end this year.

Long term, I'd anticipate as household income continues to grow and general wealth continues to grow and then that initial blunt object of just interest rates going up. I think once that's absorbed by the American public, then this business should get back into that like 13% to 14% new gross margin range.

And on the used side, we've shown that we're a bit more resilient in terms of maintaining that margin profile with about an 18% margin profile. That could go up a little bit, though. That really comes down to more of a sourcing and also which vintages that we're zeroing in on. We have already played out this concept though that those consumers that bought between 2020 and 2022 found themselves in a higher negative equity position.

So, we realized it's taking them longer to self-hill their balance sheet and just get back to that manageable equity position. So, in those specific cohorts, we're not quite seeing that margin improvement yet. But we are seeing those customers a greater willingness to actually trade in their assets.

So, John, we're really more interested in kind of this recurring game of taking a customer in that we previously built to trading in that asset and then so goes the cycle over and over again. I'd be less concerned long term of the general margin profile as long as we can get these customers back into the cycle of trading in their assets every three to four years, which we know that was more of the norm historically.

We've seen those customers sitting on the sidelines for a little bit longer than we'd like, where our average age of a trade in right now is about 7.5 years. We'd like to see that be more like 4.5 years, in which case, the annual lifetime value of these customers continues to expand, never mind long term as margins recover.

John Healy

That's helpful. And then one question for Tom. On the financing side, any color you can give us about progress so far on that side of things? Or any sort of early takeaways on maybe just how cost of capital is evolving and changing for you guys?

Thomas Kirn

Obviously, we released the 8-K and I mentioned in the prepared remarks, but we're exploring refinancing to increase financial flexibility. We've got time on the maturity wall, and we're considering a range of alternatives, but more to come, and we'll update the market as it progresses.

Matt Wagner

We also know, John, last time we refinanced was in 2021, and our rate is very favorable right now. So, we would anticipate that rate going up. To what order of magnitude, don't quite know, but we think it'd be manageable, as we said in our prepared remarks as well.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joseph Altobello at Raymond James.

Joseph Altobello

First question for you, Matt. You mentioned you were surprised at the level of promotional intensity from some of your competitors given their inventory situations. I'm guessing there's some seasonal aspect to this, but have you seen any easing of that promotional intensity? Or do you think that continues potentially into next spring?

Matt Wagner

I think it's eased up a little bit from what we saw in July and August in particular. And I don't know this for a fact, but I believe that a lot of our competitors got beyond peak selling period in May and June, which oftentimes are going to be the greatest yield in terms of overall volume and realized that they had way too much inventory still sitting on their lots.

And prices were reduced pretty extensively throughout July and August. where we were seeing a lot of competition advertise 37% to 40% discounts off MSRP, which, Joe, as you know, typically in our industry, it's like a discount of maybe 27% to 30%, and that's kind of the norm. But that was ramping across the industry for a period there.

And while we had reduced our inventory levels and taken the pain of reduced margins prior to that time period, we also will fall victim to just competition reducing prices. Ultimately, you have to sell something. And we just took that maximum pain threshold that we could tolerate before just saying, you know what, our inventory levels have -- in a relatively good position, as we said on the call.

We've reduced our aged inventory substantially. We have a healthy complexion of model year '27s compared to '26s. And even on the used side, we've reduced our used inventory pretty substantially. So, we're sitting in the advantageous position have done a lot of work really for this ultimate moment heading into Q4, which we've said very clearly to the public markets that we were going to do a lot of work.

And we expect to yield some material results by Q4 of this year in terms of changing our cost structure, rectifying our inventory position and really being able to take advantage of the opportunity in Q4 and beyond. So, we believe that we've been able to separate ourselves from the competition.

As we sit here today, about 61% of our new assets are model year '27, whereas we believe just about every other larger multi-dealer network out there has no more than like 40% to 45% of their new assets being model year '27s. So, we're well ahead of the curve. We've been able to work with the manufacturers to put ourselves in a very healthy position to at least start to normalize and improve our margin profile.

Joseph Altobello

But I guess what I'm asking is like if the industry hasn't gotten materially better from an inventory standpoint, are we in the same spot next year?

Matt Wagner

I don't think so because you've seen a heavy reduction of general wholesale shipments compared to retail activity. So there hasn't necessarily been this aggressive approach to replenishment of assets. So you have to assume at such point as the competition starts to sell out of these assets, they're not replenishing at the same aggressive rate, then you start to see a general normalization of margin.

Joseph Altobello

Okay. And just shifting gears over to the balance sheet. Obviously, leverage picked up here. Is there any thoughts on monetizing some of your assets? I know you've talked about Good Sam in the past. Could that be on the table? Or is the plan to kind of grow out of that?

Matt Wagner

We have no plans at the moment to sell any assets. We have, of course, looked at some of our dealerships that we've recently closed -- and we'll look at selling some of that real estate. But the void of that, we feel very confident with our long-term game plan. As we stated very clearly to the public markets, Good Sam is a cornerstone of our business, and we know that we can accelerate the growth there in very unique and interesting ways for the future.

The dealership business right now is in a tough marketplace. And when we think about the upside, as you know, Joe, when this thing turns very quickly in the market and never mind how we've reset our cost structure, the free cash flow for a while can be quite considerable throughout the dealership business.

Thomas Kirn

The leverage improvement is really going to be driven by the SG&A cost programs that we've announced, the $100 million, the $50 million and the restraint that we're showing on CapEx and expect to continue to show heading into next year on that side.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tristan Thomas Martin at BMO Capital Markets.

Tristan Thomas-Martin

Just out of curiosity, what kind of gets us to flat retail next year versus down mid-single digits?

Matt Wagner

We believe that the first quarter of last year was negatively impacted by weather. Never mind, by Q2, that's when we started to feel the full effects of geopolitical tensions and general consumer sentiment being negatively impacted to a degree or the likes of which we had not previously seen.

So, when we think about the opportunity for next year, it's really just comping against pretty manageable comps, severe weather impact in Q1. And by Q2, that initial blunt force of just a war kicking off and consumers settling into a reality that gas prices were going up pretty considerably and general inflation with just generally necessities of goods, every discretionary pricing was going up pretty materially.

So as things just level off across just the American public, that's where we've shown as an industry as long as consumer sentiment starts to rebound, which, by the way, we saw consumer confidence readings improve a couple of weeks ago. We're waiting to see what this next consumer sentiment reading will be out of University of Michigan.

We believe that customers are kind of settling into this. And today is kind of a big day. There's a few things happening. We're coming off of today, I think that there's going to be an opportunity for a rebound here just for the consumer public to be more confident stepping into a lifestyle that they love. We have over 6 million RVers out there in America, and they'll continue to engage in this lifestyle.

As we've shown, that number has been quite resilient and actually has grown where we went up to 6.1 million with the most recently reported RVs in operation. So that's really what we're playing for just very logically. It's an industry and a lifestyle that's alive and well.

Thomas Kirn

And I would just say to put some a little bit finer numbers on that. If you were to just freeze consumer sentiment and a lot of the other variables where they're at today, roll that forward, as Matt said, we do have -- if you look at the comps, it's kind of a pre-war comp and a post-war comp. If you look at 2027 and how that could play out, freezing everything today would get you closer to that down mid-singles. I would say, should we get some easing of any of those variables, whether it be confidence, whether it be inflation or any of those other sentiment metrics, that would kind of tilt you higher up into that flattish type range.

Tristan Thomas-Martin

Okay. And then how are we... Kind of a timing question. Also that, I feel like a lot of things happen every day. Just how are you thinking about affordability kind of moving in '27 and '28? And then how does the potential LCI Patrick merger factor into that picking?

Matt Wagner

Well, what we've seen so far is that new invoice prices did have a nominal increase of like 2% to 3% across the board, which that's roughly in line, actually slightly below inflation in broader industry. So, we feel okay with how we are currently positioned.

We've also had to get creative in terms of just changing the general inventory mix that we had rolling into this year and rolling into next year, we'd anticipate that there's going to be certain price points we'll be able to take advantage of. I'm not thinking that our average sale price will necessarily go down materially because we do believe there's opportunities on both sides of the bell curve, more inexpensively priced assets as well as more expensively priced assets where we've seen in certain segments that we've actually lost some market share.

And then when we think about it in the context of Patrick and Lippert potential merger, I mean, my opinion is it would still take quite a bit of time. I do believe that they said very publicly that their goal seek would be to reduce general cost and pricing. We work very effectively with them through a variety of different lenses, especially in the aftermarket.

So, it would be our hope that we can continue to work collectively to drive down the overall price of these assets to ensure that we're continuing to propel demand for consumers because no matter what, we'll look through the lens of every potential merger or acquisition of is it good for the industry? Is it good for us? And ultimately, is it good for consumers.

Operator

Our next question comes from Noah Zatzkin at KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Noah Zatzkin

I guess, first, could you maybe speak to the complexion of the incremental cost saves that you've identified for next year and the degree of visibility there? And then any color around kind of timing of realizing that?

Thomas Kirn

Sure. Thanks for the question on that, Noah. I think we've previously talked about the $50 million really coming from a lot of headcount rationalization efforts as well as a couple of store closures that we announced. We announced four store closures in the quarter.

And then for the $100 million program, about half of that was going to come from really some efficiency programs within the personnel and cost base there and then with the balance of it really being driven by a lot of AI-enabled initiatives to reduce our software costs and increase operational efficiency.

Of the $100 million, we -- or $100 million, we had expected about $50 million of that to be completed by the end of the year and in the run rate. and we feel good about where all of those initiatives are stacking up. As Matt had previously alluded to, we had over 20 programs or initiatives as part of that $100 million program, and we're on track to execute on that plan as we sit here today. And the $50 million that we announced separately is done at this point.

Noah Zatzkin

Got it. That's helpful. And I think you maybe touched on this a bit, but in an environment where RV retail comes in worse than maybe down mid-single digits, could you speak to the levers that you have there maybe outside of the planned cost saves?

Thomas Kirn

I mean, as any large retailer, we always look at the efficiency of our store base. and we look at those stores that are maybe on the bubble and maybe underperforming. And that's something that you've seen us the last couple of years look at and rationalize and consolidate where it makes sense.

At this point, we're trying to stay focused on this store base because we do see the value in the origination source there for Good Sam and what that does for supporting the installed base of 6 million RVs through our PS&O business, through the finance products that we offer, et cetera. But that is something that in a market that continues to -- if it does inflect more negative than that, that is a lever that we would absolutely have to look to pull on as any retailer would.

Matt Wagner

We've shown that we're quite nimble this year, Noah. But just as well, there's always that reaction time where we did recognize, obviously, in June, July, that numbers weren't coming in exactly where we wanted them to. So, it did take us a couple of months. So, while we can be quite nimble, there's always going to be that time period of recognition and then the action thereafter. But we feel good that we'd be able to make modifications as necessary.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Stember at ROTH Capital.

Scott Stember

Just talking about the cost cuts, you did say that there were some dealerships that were closed, but you reserved the right to reopen them. So, I'm just trying to get a sense of when you look at the entire $150 million worth of costs that you've identified, how much of it could potentially be reinstated if necessary? Because I'm sure the last thing you want to be doing is cutting into muscle and into bone just in case the market does come back.

Thomas Kirn

On the $50 million of reductions, we caveated that as being greater than because we do expect there to be some seasonal element to the reductions that we've made, not only because of the couple of stores that we reserve the right to reopen, but also just inherently, if we do see -- start to see some volume trends improve and some other things improve in our business, we would reserve the right to rehire folks into those positions heading into the summer selling season. So, we disclosed that as more of a net number so that we could all get behind and feel very comfortable with heading into next year.

Scott Stember

Got it. And then on the service side, the comp was up a little bit or flattish, but margins were down pretty significantly. Could you talk about what was behind that? I think you guys said that -- it sounds like it was lower margin just less labor-intensive type of business. But can you talk about what happened with the margins there? And a follow-up to that would be now if used remains under pressure like this, does that give you more capacity to be -- to handle some of the pent-up customer pay work?

Matt Wagner

Scott, I know that you've been very focused on this line item in particular. And I can tell you this last quarter, we used this as an opportunity to develop an entire win-back campaign for customers that we just no longer were engaging with through our service channel in particular.

And as we've spoken about publicly, especially as a result of some of the questions you've asked, Scott, we don't actually have that recurring revenue with customers as automotive dealerships oftentimes enjoy. So, we used this quarter knowing that customers wanted to hold on to their assets for a little bit longer.

They weren't necessarily trading in their assets to the extent we wanted them to, but we did know that they needed to have a service relationship with us -- we're able to generate about the same revenue. However, we did face some margin degradation because we did focus on discounting certain products and services for these customers to reestablish a relationship with them.

And we're really playing for the long term here in service, where we do know once they have a great experience, they paid a fair price that they will come back for more service work. But we also know that there is a high likelihood that they will trade in their asset with us so that we get the next RV sale.

There's a heavy corollary between those customers that have had at least six service visits with us and those that trade in. However, if they've had three or less service visits with us, we oftentimes just never see them again. So really, this is a quarter where we had a goal seek of bringing more customers in through service so that we can, once this trade-in cycle takes hold, have the opportunity to sell them their next RV.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Didora at Bank of America.

Andrew Didora

Actually, a question for the -- in the finance and insurance business. Over time, revenue growth obviously typically outperforms that of kind of combined new used vehicle sales. I know this quarter, you had the actuarial adjustment there that kind of mask kind of what we historically see. I guess on this line, one, are there any risks in this environment that there could be another adjustment in this business? And then second, just how do you think about the core growth of F&I relative to new used vehicle sales?

Thomas Kirn

I think when you take a step back and look at F&I for the full year as a percentage of new and used sales, it's still up. And I think that speaks to a lot of credit to the Good Sam team and the product that they developed and to our finance team and how they're providing -- how they're presenting the menu and presenting those products to our customers. Yes, we do take a look at the reserve that we have and what the cancellation trends are on these products. In this environment, we did just see a little bit of an uptick in customers wanting to take a little bit of a refund.

And that's not exclusive to us that's observed in other categories throughout either recreation or auto and a lot of dealer businesses. So, it's not something that we're necessarily immune to, but we feel like the adjustment that we took was a prudent one for the quarter. And we believe that the full year results that we've shown are positive and really show the momentum of that business.

Andrew Didora

Got it. Understood. And then, Matt, in your prepared remarks, you spoke a little bit about the market share losses kind of July, August as you kind of didn't react to what your peers were doing. But I guess in the absence of much more promo out of your competitive set and with the 100-plus or so bps of gross margin expansion next year in mind, how do you think your market share performs in that type of environment?

Matt Wagner

I think we'll be able to seize back our market share where historically, there are periods that we'll go through in a year where maybe there will be two, three months where we'll give up a little bit of share compared to the trajectory that we're on. But if you look at our North American market share on a trailing 12-month basis, we're still at 21%. We peaked in the middle of this year at like 21.4%. If you still look at the U.S., we're still looking at about a 24.5% U.S.-based market share.

And on the used side of the business, we're still sitting at about on a TTM basis, about like 8.4% used market share, where we peaked at like 8.6%. So, we think it's very attainable based upon more creative inventory strategy. And once we start to source more used assets more aggressively to be able to recapture that and still be able to maintain that market -- that general margin improvement.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tristan Thomas Martin at BMO Capital Markets.

Tristan Thomas-Martin

One more for me. How much of your richer mix is tied to your contract manufactured products? And then how should we think about that penetration next year?

Matt Wagner

How much was our inventory at the richer mix? Is that the question?

Tristan Thomas-Martin

Inventory. Right. So I think about the Coleman Reserve fifth wheel and like the Forest River Campsite reserve, I'm sorry. And then some of the Thor Motor Coach motorized, how much of that shift and you guys kind of shifting your contract manufacturing price points higher drove the ASP mix? And then how do we think about your contract manufacturing penetration next year? Like is it going to go up, down, flat?

Matt Wagner

So our exclusive brands did account for a slightly higher percent of our total new sales, where we peaked at about 47%, 48% over the course of Q3. I would not anticipate that percent of the total going up too materially. Our ASP mix actually improved more considerably just by means of just selling more motorized, where we picked up commanding market share within the Class C segment. And yes, some of that was driven by our exclusive brands that we've developed with Thor Motor Coach, but also a variety of other OEM brands.

And even within the fifth wheel space, yes, we were very effective with the Campsite Reserve Fifth Wheel. Campsite Reserve is now the #8 best-selling brand in North America. But we were very effective at some of these OEM products like Keyston's, Cougar, Montana that remind Jayco's complete lineup of fifth wheels.

So, we've shown to actually have a healthy balance in those higher ASP segments. And we think that there's more room to grow, especially when we think of fifth wheels over $100,000. That is a segment that's been relatively resilient, and we picked up market share this year, but we believe that there's a lot more to give next year.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Chartier at Monness, Crespi.

James Chartier

I just wanted to follow up on the gross margin for product service and other. Was this a quarter initiative? And how should we think about that gross margin going forward?

Thomas Kirn

I would view that, Jim, as a 1-quarter initiative, and we expect it to normalize a little bit. We may be a little bit lower than we were in the past couple of quarters because we did make some modifications in our rate structure for some of our posted labor rates for consumers that we intend to keep, but I would expect it to normalize a bit from here.

James Chartier

Okay. And then the press release mentioned $2.3 million of recurring profit sharing for Good Sam Club. Can you just talk about what that is and how we should think about that for the next few quarters?

Thomas Kirn

Sure. We went through the process of renegotiating our contract with our credit card provider and working through how we could collectively grow that program. It's a little bit of a unique program. It's really unique to recreational spaces and to camping in general.

So, we're really excited to partner and grow over a long term with that partner. And in going through that exercise, we ultimately negotiated a profit share component of that. So historically, that was really just a royalty and bounty type of a program where we'd earn a percentage on spend or something for card activations.

But going forward, we'll actually get some of the upside in the profit share associated with that portfolio. And we disclosed that about $2-ish million in the press release. I would expect that -- and that was for the quarter. I would kind of expect that on a quarterly basis from here, but more to come as we grow into that new program.

James Chartier

Okay. So on an annual basis, that's like an $8 million uptick from where you had been trending. And then for this quarter, you also had a nonrecurring $5 million payment, which we should back out going forward?

Thomas Kirn

That's the right way to think about it.

Operator

I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Matt for closing remarks.

Matt Wagner

Thank you, everyone, for your time this morning. As you could tell, we are quite focused on what we need to continue to accomplish between now and the end of the year, and we look forward to speaking with all of you in the next few months. Take care.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.