Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của CVR Energy (CVI): Thương vụ nhà máy lọc dầu trị giá 4,2 tỷ USD và kết quả kỷ lục

CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI) đã báo cáo lợi nhuận ròng quý 3/2026 đạt 563 triệu USD và EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 582 triệu USD, nhờ chênh lệch giá crack spread Group 3 tăng mạnh và sản lượng lọc dầu cao hơn. Công ty cũng công bố thỏa thuận trị giá 4,2 tỷ USD để mua lại hai nhà máy lọc dầu của Marathon Petroleum cùng các tài sản liên quan.

Điểm tin chính

• Lợi nhuận ròng quý 3/2026 đạt 563 triệu USD, tương đương 5,67 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng. Lợi nhuận điều chỉnh đạt 4,00 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu, trong khi EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 582 triệu USD.
• EBITDA điều chỉnh mảng Dầu khí tăng lên 565 triệu USD từ mức 120 triệu USD trong quý 3/2025, chủ yếu nhờ chênh lệch giá crack spread Group 3 và sản lượng tăng.
• CVR Energy đã đồng ý mua lại các nhà máy lọc dầu St. Paul Park và Mandan của Marathon Petroleum, cùng với hoạt động kinh doanh tiếp thị liên quan và một số tài sản logistics nhất định với giá khoảng 4,2 tỷ USD.
• Các nhà máy lọc dầu được mua lại có tổng công suất chế biến dầu thô theo thiết kế khoảng 177.000 thùng/ngày. Giao dịch này sẽ nâng tổng công suất của CVR Energy từ khoảng 207.000 lên 384.000 thùng/ngày.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến vụ thâu tóm sẽ giúp gia tăng hơn 50% lợi nhuận và dòng tiền tự do trong năm đầu tiên đầy đủ sau khi hoàn tất, với hiệu quả cộng hưởng hàng năm ước tính khoảng 70 triệu USD.
• Hội đồng quản trị đã công bố cổ tức quý 3/2026 là 0,10 USD mỗi cổ phiếu. Ban lãnh đạo dự báo chu kỳ tăng trưởng của ngành lọc dầu có thể kéo dài đến hết năm 2027 nhưng có kế hoạch ưu tiên giảm nợ vay sau thâu tóm.

Kết quả tài chính cốt lõi

Kết quả báo cáo bao gồm khoản thay đổi thuận lợi 314 triệu USD trong nghĩa vụ RFS, 35 triệu USD tác động tích cực từ định giá hàng tồn kho và 127 triệu USD lỗ chưa thực hiện từ công cụ phái sinh. Tổng lỗ từ công cụ phái sinh là 259 triệu USD, bao gồm 133 triệu USD lỗ đã thực hiện và 127 triệu USD lỗ chưa thực hiện.

Kết quả hoạt động và kinh doanh

Tổng sản lượng chế biến đạt khoảng 228.000 thùng/ngày. Hiệu suất sử dụng dầu thô đạt khoảng 105% công suất thiết kế, trong khi tỷ lệ sản phẩm nhẹ chiếm 93% tổng sản lượng chế biến.

Chênh lệch giá crack spread Group 3 2-1-1 trung bình đạt 68,50 USD/thùng, tăng từ 25,94 USD trong quý 3/2025. Biên lợi nhuận thực hiện điều chỉnh của CVR Energy là 34,97 USD/thùng, tương ứng với tỷ lệ nắm bắt 51%.

Giá RIN tăng hơn 125% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên mức trên 14 USD/thùng. Chi phí RIN ròng, không bao gồm thay đổi trong nghĩa vụ RFS, là 235 triệu USD, tương đương 11,20 USD/thùng. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết điều này đã làm giảm tỷ lệ nắm bắt theo điểm chuẩn hàng quý khoảng 16 điểm phần trăm.

EPA đã cấp cho Wynnewood Refining Company quyền miễn trừ hoàn toàn dành cho nhà máy lọc dầu quy mô nhỏ đối với nghĩa vụ năm 2025, làm giảm 253 triệu USD nghĩa vụ RFS trên bảng cân đối kế toán. Tính đến ngày 30 tháng 9, nghĩa vụ RFS dồn tích ở mức 230 triệu USD, tương ứng với 113 triệu tín chỉ RIN được ghi nhận theo giá trung bình là 2,04 USD.

Chi phí hoạt động trực tiếp mảng Dầu khí tăng lên 6,15 USD/thùng từ mức 5,69 USD/thùng trong quý 3/2025, chủ yếu do chi phí nhân sự tăng, bao gồm cả thù lao bằng cổ phiếu.

EBITDA điều chỉnh mảng Phân bón giảm xuống 20 triệu USD. Hiệu suất sử dụng Amoniac đạt 80%, phản ánh đợt bảo dưỡng định kỳ theo kế hoạch tại East Dubuque. CVR Partners đã công bố mức phân phối 1,79 USD trên mỗi đơn vị cổ phần phổ thông, trong đó CVR Energy dự kiến nhận khoảng 7 triệu USD dựa trên 37% tỷ lệ sở hữu.

Thâu tóm Nhà máy lọc dầu Marathon

Giao dịch trị giá 4,2 tỷ USD bao gồm nhà máy lọc dầu St. Paul Park công suất 105.000 thùng/ngày tại Minnesota, nhà máy lọc dầu Mandan công suất 72.000 thùng/ngày tại North Dakota, hoạt động kinh doanh tiếp thị liên quan với tối đa 590 địa điểm nhượng quyền thương hiệu và một số tài sản logistics nhất định.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết giá mua tương đương chưa đến 3,5 lần ước tính EBITDA năm 2026 của mảng kinh doanh được thâu tóm. Trên cơ sở giả định cho 9 tháng kết thúc ngày 30 tháng 9 năm 2026, CVR Energy cho biết EBITDA sẽ tăng từ khoảng 900 triệu USD lên khoảng 2 tỷ USD, trong khi EPS pha loãng sẽ tăng từ 3,73 USD lên 7,67 USD.

Công ty dự định tài trợ cho vụ thâu tóm bằng vốn cổ phần phổ thông, tiền mặt và nợ vay. Các nguồn vốn bao gồm khoản đầu tư cổ phần phổ thông lớn từ Trafigura, cam kết vốn cổ phần 500 triệu USD từ IEP, khoảng 650 triệu USD tiền mặt của CVR Energy, 2,5 tỷ USD cam kết tài trợ cầu nối và khoản rút dự kiến 300 triệu USD từ hạn mức ABL được nâng lên 1,1 tỷ USD.

Nợ giả định, không bao gồm CVR Partners, dự kiến vào khoảng 3,8 tỷ USD tại thời điểm hoàn tất giao dịch, tương đương chưa đến 2 lần ước tính EBITDA hợp nhất giả định năm 2026 của ban lãnh đạo. CVR Energy cũng có kế hoạch mua lại các trái phiếu cao cấp đáo hạn năm 2028 đang lưu hành và có ý định giảm tỷ lệ đòn bẩy bằng dòng tiền tạo ra trong môi trường biên lợi nhuận trên mức trung bình chu kỳ.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Không bao gồm các tài sản Marathon được mua lại, CVR Energy đã đưa ra triển vọng quý 4/2026 như sau:

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến chi tiêu vốn hợp nhất cả năm 2026 vào khoảng 220 triệu USD đến 240 triệu USD. Triển vọng mảng Phân bón phản ánh việc hoàn tất đợt bảo dưỡng East Dubuque vào tháng 10.

Giao dịch với Marathon dự kiến sẽ hoàn tất vào cuối năm 2026, tùy thuộc vào các điều kiện hoàn tất thông thường và phê duyệt của cơ quan quản lý, bao gồm cả việc hết thời hạn chờ theo Đạo luật Hart-Scott-Rodino.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Thương vụ thâu tóm vẫn phụ thuộc vào phê duyệt của cơ quan quản lý, việc thực thi phương án tài trợ vốn và các điều kiện hoàn tất thông thường khác.
• Việc hiện thực hóa hiệu quả cộng hưởng và mức tăng trưởng dự kiến phụ thuộc vào sự tích hợp thành công các nhà máy lọc dầu, hoạt động tiếp thị và tài sản logistics được thâu tóm.
• Nợ giả định dự kiến sẽ tăng lên khoảng 3,8 tỷ USD, khiến việc giảm đòn bẩy và thực thi dòng tiền trở nên quan trọng sau khi hoàn tất thương vụ.
• Chi phí RIN ở mức cao tiếp tục là áp lực đáng kể đối với biên lợi nhuận lọc dầu. Vụ thâu tóm sẽ làm giảm rủi ro RIN mở của CVR Energy nhờ năng lực pha trộn lớn hơn, nhưng doanh nghiệp hợp nhất sẽ không ở vị thế thặng dư RIN ròng.
• Biên lợi nhuận lọc dầu vẫn chịu rủi ro biến động từ thị trường dầu thô và sản phẩm lọc dầu. Kỳ vọng của ban lãnh đạo về biên lợi nhuận ở mức cao trong 12 đến 24 tháng tới một phần dựa trên tình trạng gián đoạn nguồn cung toàn cầu và tồn kho ở mức thấp.
• Các lợi ích, hiệu quả cộng hưởng, mức tăng trưởng dự kiến và tiến độ hoàn tất giao dịch là các dự báo hướng tới tương lai và chịu rủi ro thực thi.

Điểm nổi bật trong phiên Q&A với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết khung định giá giữa chu kỳ của họ sử dụng dữ liệu lịch sử khoảng 10 năm của chênh lệch giá crack spread, có điều chỉnh theo biến động của RIN. Đối với các tài sản được thâu tóm, mức lợi nhuận giữa chu kỳ ước tính được mô tả là có khả năng gần gấp đôi con số khoảng 400 triệu USD mà một chuyên gia phân tích đưa ra. Ban lãnh đạo cũng tin rằng biên lợi nhuận giữa chu kỳ trong tương lai có thể cao hơn các mức trong lịch sử, mặc dù mức tăng trưởng thị trường gần đây không được đưa vào mức định giá thương lượng.

Các nhà máy lọc dầu được mua lại chế biến khoảng 126.000 thùng/ngày dầu thô Bakken và chưa đầy 50.000 thùng/ngày dầu thô Canada. Khoảng một nửa sản lượng dầu Canada là WCS hoặc các loại dầu thô nặng khác.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết chỉ có khoảng 15% sản phẩm của các tài sản được thâu tóm trước đây đi vào thị trường bán buôn. Mandan hưởng lợi từ việc phân phối sản phẩm địa phương vì đây là nhà máy lọc dầu duy nhất của North Dakota, trong khi St. Paul Park phục vụ một thị trường bán buôn đường ống đô thị đầy hấp dẫn.

Hoạt động kinh doanh được thâu tóm là một doanh nghiệp tiếp thị thay vì kinh doanh cửa hàng bán lẻ. CVR Energy kỳ vọng kiểm soát tốt hơn việc phân phối và pha trộn sản phẩm để thu thêm biên lợi nhuận và giảm rủi ro RIN mở hợp nhất.

Mandan đã nhận được mức miễn trừ 50% dành cho nhà máy lọc dầu quy mô nhỏ cho các nghĩa vụ năm 2023, 2024 và 2025. Ban lãnh đạo không đưa các khoản miễn trừ trong tương lai vào định giá thâu tóm, nghĩa là bất kỳ khoản hỗ trợ bổ sung nào cũng sẽ đại diện cho tiềm năng tăng trưởng so với các giả định của họ.

CVR Energy đã đưa các dự án đầu tư vốn đang trong kế hoạch của Marathon vào dự báo của mình. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các tài sản đã được bảo trì tốt và các ưu tiên trong ngắn hạn tập trung vào việc tích hợp thành công thay vì tái cấu trúc lớn, mặc dù công ty sẽ xem xét các dự án dài hạn hơn như lò cặn coking tại St. Paul Park.

Toàn văn cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to CVR Energy's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Richard J. Roberts, Chief Financial Officer. Richard, please go ahead.

Richard Roberts

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. We very much appreciate you joining us this morning for our CVR Energy Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me today are Dane Neumann, our Chief Executive Officer; Mike Wright, our Chief Operating Officer; and other members of management.

Today, we announced our agreement to acquire 2 refineries from Marathon Petroleum, and we have posted a presentation on the Investor Relations section of our website. We will refer to that presentation during our prepared remarks.

Prior to discussing our 2026 third quarter results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements as that term is defined under federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and our latest earnings release. As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law.

This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures related to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2026 third quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC and Form 10-Q for the period and will be discussed during the call.

In addition, our remarks today include forward-looking statements regarding the proposed acquisition, including its expected benefits, synergies, accretion, financing and timing to close. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the satisfaction of customary closing conditions and regulatory clearance, our ability to finance the transaction and to integrate the acquired assets and the other factors described in our press release and SEC filings.

With that said, I'll turn the call over to Dane.

Dane Neumann

Thank you, Richard. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our earnings call. This is a historic day for CVR Energy as we announced the largest acquisition in the company's history, along with a record earnings quarter on both a consolidated basis and in the Refining segment. We are also pleased to announce a third quarter 2026 dividend of $0.10 per share. We believe current market conditions, along with the platform expansion opportunities afforded by this transaction, generate tailwinds for our business that should create tremendous value for our shareholders. Before Richard takes you through the quarter, I want to spend a few minutes on the news we announced this morning.

Starting on Slide 2 of the presentation, CVR Energy has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Marathon's St. Paul Park, Minnesota and Mandan, North Dakota refineries, along with their associated marketing business and certain logistics assets for total consideration of approximately $4.2 billion, subject to certain customary closing adjustments. The 2 refineries have a combined nameplate crude capacity of approximately 177,000 barrels per day with St. Paul Park at 105,000 and Mandan at 72,000. Combined with Coffeyville and Wynnewood, our crude processing capacity would increase from approximately 207,000 to approximately 384,000 barrels per day.

This is a transformative acquisition for CVR Energy, nearly doubling our refining capacity, enhancing our geographic scope and diversifying our distribution footprint through a highly complementary marketing and logistics platform. The transaction implies an asset acquisition multiple of less than 3.5x management's estimate of 2026 EBITDA for the acquired business. For the 9 months ended September 30, 2026, on a pro forma basis, giving effect to the transaction, CVR's EBITDA increased from approximately $900 million on a stand-alone basis to approximately $2 billion and diluted earnings per share increased from $3.73 on a stand-alone basis to $7.67. Further, we expect the transaction to be greater than 50% accretive to CVR's earnings and free cash flow in the first full year after closing.

We intend to fund the transaction with a mix of common equity, cash and debt, and we plan to redeem our outstanding 2028 senior notes. The equity portion is intended to be funded by a large common equity investment from Trafigura, along with a $500 million equity commitment from IEP and approximately $650 million of cash from the CVI balance sheet. We have $2.5 billion of committed bridge financing from our banks, which we expect to replace with syndicated secured debt financing prior to closing, and we expect to draw $300 million on an upsized $1.1 billion ABL facility.

We also expect to equally and ratably secure our 2031 and 2034 senior notes upon the completion of the permanent financing. Pro forma for the transaction, we expect total debt, excluding CVR Partners of approximately $3.8 billion at closing, less than 2x our estimated 2026 consolidated pro forma EBITDA. We remain committed to a strong balance sheet, and we intend to capitalize on the above mid-cycle margin environment to further reduce leverage.

As the potential transaction is absorbed, we also see potential to substantially improve our corporate credit rating profile. The transaction has been unanimously approved by our Board of Directors and is expected to close by year-end 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory clearance, including expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act.

Turning to Slide 3. This is a unique opportunity for us to acquire high-quality geographically advantaged assets from an established operator at a compelling valuation. This transaction would expand our footprint to new geographic areas across the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Plains regions, broadening our exposure to regional transportation fuel demand and expanding our presence across the broader PADD II region.

From an operations perspective, these assets are similar to what we own and operate today, medium-sized inland refineries with advantaged crude access via Bakken and Canadian crude oil processing. They are also well-maintained assets, supported by strong historical investment by Marathon that drove average utilization levels over the past 5 years in the high 90s. The transaction would include Marathon's associated marketing business with up to 590 branded locations across the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Plains regions and long-standing relationships with strategic counterparties. It gives us a diversified distribution mix across gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel, jet fuel and asphalt in new geographies through a combination of local rack sales and wholesale channels and a platform for potential expansion into our existing footprint.

The business also has high blending capacity, which would increase our internal RIN generation capability and reduce some of our reliance on third-party RIN purchases, potentially further improving the overall RIN exposure of the company on a consolidated basis. I would also note that Mandan has received a small refinery exemption for 50% of their 2023, 2024 and 2025 obligations. Additionally, a larger, more diversified asset base would support more durable free cash flow through the cycle, enhanced balance sheet flexibility and more sustainable capital returns. This should also mitigate the volatility inherent in our smaller existing system. We expect to see approximately $70 million in cost and operational synergies on an annual run rate basis. Ultimately, we believe a larger platform improves our positioning for future growth, supported by a larger and more diversified shareholder base.

Turning to Slide 5. We believe this transaction comes at an attractive point in the cycle with a compelling forward margin environment. The ongoing conflicts in Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East continue to drive volatility across crude oil and refined product markets. Disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, combined with damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia continues to constrain global refined product supply. Even if an effective reopening of the strait eases crude supply constraints, we believe refined product prices could stay elevated for longer as damaged refineries must be repaired and global inventories rebuilt. We think global supply dislocations and historically low inventory levels support a higher than mid-cycle margin environment for at least the next 12 to 24 months.

Looking at the U.S., the domestic refining fleet ran hard in the third quarter as companies deferred maintenance and maximize throughput volumes to keep product supply flowing to meet the needs of consumers. U.S. refinery utilization averaged 96% in the quarter, well above the 5-year average of 92% for the same time period. Despite the high utilization, refined product inventories have continued to decline due to resilient demand trends and increased refined product exports. Domestic gasoline inventories are currently 5% below the 5-year average and distillate inventories are 9% below the 5-year average. Exports of gasoline and diesel from the U.S. averaged 2.9 million barrels per day for the third quarter, an increase of nearly 20% from the third quarter of 2025.

Slide 6 shows how PADD II refining dynamics reflect similar trends with supply-demand fundamentals and widening light heavy differentials supporting margins in the region.

Before we speak to our third quarter results, I want to recognize the employees at St. Paul Park and Mandan, who have built a long record of safe and reliable operations, along with the team at CVR Energy that has worked tirelessly on this transaction. We look forward to welcoming these new employees to CVR Energy following our closing, and our focus between now and closing will be a seamless transaction for our new colleagues and customers.

Now let me turn the call over to Richard to discuss our third quarter results.

Richard Roberts

Thank you, Dane, and good morning, everyone. Turning to our third quarter results highlighted on Slide 10. For the third quarter of 2026, our consolidated net income was $563 million, earnings per share was $5.67 and EBITDA was $804 million. Our third quarter results include a favorable change in our RFS liability of $314 million, favorable inventory valuation impacts of $35 million and unrealized derivative losses of $127 million. Excluding the above-mentioned items, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $582 million and earnings per share was $4. Adjusted EBITDA in the Petroleum segment was $565 million for the third quarter compared to $120 million for the third quarter of 2025. Elevated Group 3 crack spreads and higher throughput volumes drove the majority of the increase from the prior year period, offset somewhat by higher RIN expenses and realized derivative losses.

Combined total throughput for the third quarter of 2026 was approximately 228,000 barrels per day. Crude utilization for the quarter was approximately 105% of nameplate capacity and light product yield was 93% on total throughput volumes. The Group 3 2-1-1 averaged $68.50 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026 compared to $25.94 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025.

Our third quarter realized margin adjusted for the change in RFS liability, inventory valuation and unrealized derivative losses was $34.97 per barrel, representing a 51% capture rate on the Group 3 2-1-1 benchmark. RIN price increased significantly from third quarter 2025 levels, up over 125% to average over $14 per barrel for the third quarter of 2026. Net RIN expense for the quarter, excluding the change in RFS liability, was $235 million or $11.20 per barrel, which negatively impacted our capture rate for the quarter by approximately 16%.

The estimated accrued RFS obligation on the balance sheet was $230 million at September 30, representing 113 million RINs mark-to-market at an average price of $2.04. We were pleased with the EPA's decision in August to grant Wynnewood Refining Company a full SRE for its 2025 obligation, which reduced the RFS liability on the balance sheet by $253 million. We appreciate EPA's recognition that Wynnewood Refining Company is disproportionately economically harmed by the RFS and deserves full relief. However, the exorbitant cost of RINs continues to disproportionately harm small and merchant refineries like ours, along with American consumers as RINs currently represent roughly $0.28 of every gallon that hits the pump. If the President wants to lower the price of fuel today, he should pull the only lever he can that doesn't need an act of Congress, exercise of the EPA administrator's existing RFS waiver authority.

Our third quarter 2026 results include derivative losses totaling $259 million, comprised of a $133 million realized loss and a $127 million unrealized loss. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we have approximately 2.3 million barrels of diesel hedged with a total notional value of approximately $93 million. For 2027, we have approximately 3.2 million barrels of diesel hedged fairly ratably across the year.

Direct operating expenses in the Petroleum segment were $6.15 per barrel for the third quarter compared to $5.69 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025. The increase in direct operating expenses per barrel was primarily due to increased personnel expense, largely due to share-based compensation.

Adjusted EBITDA in the Fertilizer segment was $20 million for the third quarter compared to $71 million for the prior year period. Ammonia utilization rate was 80%, which was impacted by the planned turnaround at East Dubuque during the quarter. The Board of Directors of CVR Partners General Partner declared a distribution of $1.79 per common unit for the third quarter of 2026. As CVR Energy owns approximately 37% of CVR Partners common units, we will receive a proportionate cash distribution of approximately $7 million.

Cash flow from operations for the third quarter of 2026 was $655 million and free cash flow was $593 million. Significant uses of cash in the quarter included $61 million of capital spending, $46 million of cash interest, $41 million paid for the noncontrolling interest portion of the CVR Partners' second quarter 2026 distribution and $10 million for dividends. Total consolidated capital spending on an accrual basis was $58 million, which included $22 million in the Petroleum segment and $35 million in the Fertilizer segment. For the full year 2026, we estimate total consolidated capital spending to be approximately $220 million to $240 million.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $1.3 billion, which includes $158 million of cash in the Fertilizer segment. Total liquidity as of September 30, excluding CVR Partners, was approximately $1.7 billion, which was comprised primarily of $1.1 billion of cash and availability under the ABL facility of $530 million.

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2026 and excluding the acquired Marathon assets for our Petroleum segment, we estimate total throughput to be approximately 210,000 to 225,000 barrels per day, direct operating expenses to range between $115 million and $125 million and total capital spending to be between $45 million and $55 million. For the Fertilizer segment, we estimate our ammonia utilization rate to be between 88% and 93%, which will be impacted by the completion of the East Dubuque turnaround in October. We estimate direct operating expenses, excluding inventory and turnaround impacts, to be between $58 million and $63 million, turnaround expenses to be between $4 million and $6 million and total capital spending to be between $26 million and $34 million.

With that, Dane, I'll turn it back to you.

Dane Neumann

Thank you, Richard. In summary, we delivered a great quarter in refining, and we remain constructive on the outlook for both segments. I would like to thank our employees for all their hard work during the quarter, delivering crude utilization of 105% and completing the East Dubuque turnaround on the revised schedule. Our third quarter results show the benefits of focusing on safe and reliable operations. We continue to believe this up cycle in refining could persist through 2027, and today's announcement is a clear example of our focus on pursuing accretive growth opportunities intended to add value for our shareholders.

We have approached the Marathon acquisition with discipline. We underwrote it on historical mid-cycle earnings rather than today's elevated margins and at less than 3.5x our estimates of 2026 EBITDA that includes both Refining and Marketing, we consider the transaction to be extremely compelling for CVR Energy through the cycle with the current environment as upside. Subject to closing, we look forward to welcoming the St. Paul Park and Mandan employees to CVR Energy.

With that, operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH.

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Matthew Blair

Congrats on the strong quarter. I think you mentioned at the end that this transaction was predicated on mid-cycle economics. Maybe you could talk a little bit about what your assumptions are for mid-cycle. If we look back, it looks like the Mid-Con segment for MPC made about $5 to $6 a barrel in 2024 and 2025, which I think, if I'm doing the math correctly, would put the EBITDA around $400 million. Does that seem reasonable for a mid-cycle environment? Or are you projecting something higher?

Richard Roberts

Matthew, yes, the idea of mid-cycle and refining is something that we talk about every quarter. I would say from a historical basis, not taking into account any of the changes in refining fundamentals recently, looking back over a 10-year period, that's typically the way we view mid-cycle. We look at a 10-year period of cracks, adjust that for the RIN component since the RVO has been so volatile and then gross that up with the current RIN price on a go-forward basis, we get to a number probably close to double that, that you threw out for a historical mid-cycle basis on these assets.

I think our view is that given all the changes in the global refining supply-demand picture recently, that the go-forward mid-cycle is probably higher than the historical mid-cycle. But I would point out, too, that the negotiations on these assets started before the Ukraine war kicked off. So all of the upside that we've seen in the market here recently and that we're looking forward to for the next couple of years most likely, really wasn't factored into the valuation that we had here.

Matthew Blair

Okay. Sounds good. And then could you talk a little bit about the crude slate and then the product exposure for the acquired refineries. I think I remember the St. Paul Park refinery running about 1/3 WCS. And so I guess that would put the total crude slate for the package at maybe roughly 20% WCS, 80% Bakken. Is that reasonable?

And then on the product exposure, I thought that these refineries also sold into the Mid-Con Group 3 product market like your existing system. So what is a good approximation for the split between Mid-Con and Midwest exposure for the acquired assets on the product line?

Dane Neumann

Yes, Matt, this is Dane. So total crude throughput for the acquired assets, call it, around 175,000 barrels a day. Bakken is about 126,000 of that, just approximately. And then total Canadian just under 50,000 barrels and half of that Canadian would be WCS or heavy. So -- and then on the, call it, the product side, these assets actually, with their wholesale marketing and strong, call it, presence of distribution in the, call it, the northern part of the Mid-Con -- there's really historically about 15% of their product that ends up, kind of, in that bulk market, so substantially lower than ours, and they have significantly more advantaged product placement.

North Dakota, obviously, the only -- sorry, Mandan is the only refinery in North Dakota and can place the majority of its product in relatively local areas. And then St. Paul Park has a really attractive metropolitan area that allows it to place the majority of its product over the rack. So from a marketing perspective, substantially different than what we have in our existing business today and don't really see a significant amount of overlap or bulk market volumes.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta

Congrats on the transaction. I had a couple and I might queue back in here, which is -- the first is just around Mandan. Historically, this has been eligible for a small refinery exemption. Can you remind us that, I believe, has been more partial versus full, but help us size what that's been in terms of a cash flow tailwind? And how does that feed into the way that you thought about valuing these assets?

Dane Neumann

Yes. Thanks, Neil. Yes. So Mandan has received 50% waivers for the '23, '24, '25 period. In terms of our valuation, we actually did not apply any waivers into the go-forward business and any waiver received would be upside from our transaction valuation.

Neil Mehta

That's helpful. And just the follow-up is how do you weigh this relative to the path that you were on around deleveraging? Because you had gotten the balance sheet back into a good place at the precipice of reinstating the dividend. So how do you think about this relative to return of capital?

Dane Neumann

Yes. So Neil, for us, I think that we've all talked a long time that CVI, just kind of as a stand-alone business, always suffered from lack of geography, lack of scale and lack of really controlling the barrel downstream of this. So as this opportunity came up, and again, as Richard pointed out, we believe in an elevated period of time of cracks here for the next year or so or further, taking a little excess leverage and then using the incremental tailwinds we have from the market to get us back to a more normalized level across the entire fleet became the more accretive option for us. So while there is a little bit of excess leverage, if you think about a mid-cycle level on a, call it, LTM or on a '26 estimate or what we believe the '27 environment look like, it seems like a decent leverage target, but we want to continue to work that down over time.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.

Neil Mehta

Can you spend a little bit more time talking about the retail side of the business and the marketing side of the business? A lot of us covered Northern Tier back in the day, and I know that was a business they were looking to grow. But just give us a mark-to-market on that -- on those assets and how we should be thinking about that?

Dane Neumann

Yes, Neil. So just to clarify, it's not a retail business and that we don't own the retail stores. It's more...

Neil Mehta

As a marketing...

Dane Neumann

Marketing [indiscernible]. So for one, that's a business we don't have today in our existing assets in the Southern Mid-Con and Group 3. So there is some margin that we're giving up between where we're selling in the bulk market and where that product ends up to the ultimate retailer. So by controlling that piece of the value chain, there's some incremental margin that we get to capture there. In addition to that or as part of that, which is actually a pretty meaningful piece, is the RIN generation that comes along with controlling that piece of the business, along with the significant rack sales relative to what we have today.

So I think we mentioned in the prepared remarks, but on a go-forward basis, even not giving credit to the SREs that we've gotten at Wynnewood and that Mandan has received, our consolidated RIN obligation would go down quite a bit just from the additional blending. And as you layer in those potential additional SRE benefits that it goes even lower. So incremental margin there just on controlling more of the barrel and where it goes on top of the additional RIN generation.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with TPH.

Matthew Blair

I guess just to clarify on the RIN exposure, are you saying that you can overblend on these assets that you actually are, I guess, net long RINs on the acquired assets? Or maybe I'm misinterpreting here.

Dane Neumann

Yes. No, Matt. It wouldn't be a net long position. The relative blending capacity of the acquired assets is significantly higher than the relative blending capacity of the CVR assets, predominantly the St. Paul Park with that local rack supplying a substantial portion of their volumes. What the RIN exposure comment is, as it relates to the weighted average across the 2 facilities, our percentage will come down in terms of open exposure pretty dramatically.

Matthew Blair

Okay. And then are you expecting any notable capital investments with this acquisition? Just thinking that the St. Paul Park runs a fair amount of WCS, but I believe it still does not have a coker. Would you consider putting in a coker or any other notable capital investments?

Richard Roberts

Thanks, Matt. I'll take that one. Yes, we would consider it. I think that there's -- really that's a pretty heavy lift in terms of capital dollars and really where would that -- how much more of the value would we capture in that mode. Coffeyville, we do have the benefit of having a gasifier fertilizer business right next door and can get a decent netback and that's a good synergy, and we probably don't have that as much. It's a pretty big transportation that they get from St. Paul down. There is capital that is planned, and we put all of the capital that was currently planned with Marathon into our future forecast, and we expect to complete those. Not -- they've done a really good job of maintaining those assets and don't see really a lot of makeup capital like you see in some other assets that go on the market. So excited about these assets the way they are well maintained and reliable. So look forward to working with them. And really, it's more about a successful integration than it is trying to re-kit that right away.

Matthew Blair

Sounds good. And then finally, is there any sort of earn-out on the transaction?

Dane Neumann

No, sir.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Dane for closing remarks.

Dane Neumann

All right. Again, I would like to thank you all for your interest in CVR Energy and our employees for their hard work and commitment towards safe, reliable and environmentally responsible operations. And we look forward to reviewing our fourth quarter 2026 results during our next call in a couple of months. Have a safe day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.