Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của DHC: SHOP NOI tăng mạnh 50,4%, nâng dự báo triển vọng

Điểm tin chính

• Diversified Healthcare Trust đã báo cáo FFO chuẩn hóa quý 3/2026 đạt 30,7 triệu USD, tương đương 0,13 USD/cổ phiếu, tăng từ mức 0,02 USD/cổ phiếu của cùng kỳ năm trước. EBITDAre điều chỉnh tăng 28,4% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 73,4 triệu USD.
• NOI cơ sở tiền mặt của cùng một bất động sản hợp nhất tăng 25,6% lên 77,9 triệu USD. NOI cùng bất động sản mảng SHOP tăng 50,4% lên 48,0 triệu USD khi tỷ lệ lấp đầy tăng 200 điểm cơ bản lên 84,4% và giá thuê bình quân hàng tháng tăng 5,2%.
• DHC đã nâng mức trung vị của dự báo NOI cùng bất động sản mảng SHOP năm 2026 thêm 5 triệu USD lên khoảng 190 triệu đến 200 triệu USD. Công ty cũng giảm dự báo chi phí vốn định kỳ thêm 10 triệu USD ở mức trung vị xuống còn 90 triệu - 105 triệu USD.
• Công ty đã chuyển giao 7 cơ sở điều dưỡng chuyên khoa tại Colorado sang hợp đồng thuê ròng triple-net thời hạn 15 năm với The Ensign Group. Tiền thuê theo hợp đồng năm đầu tiên đạt khoảng 8 triệu USD, so với 5,1 triệu USD NOI trong 12 tháng trước đó.
• Thanh khoản cuối quý đạt 261 triệu USD, bao gồm 111 triệu USD tiền mặt và hạn mức tín dụng tuần hoàn có đảm bảo chưa rút trị giá 150 triệu USD. Tỷ lệ nợ ròng trên EBITDAre điều chỉnh năm hóa giảm xuống 8,2 lần từ mức 10,7 lần của một năm trước đó, hoặc 7,4 lần nếu không bao gồm phí quản lý thưởng.
• Ban lãnh đạo ước tính tỷ lệ lấp đầy mảng SHOP còn có tiềm năng tăng thêm 500-600 điểm cơ bản khi các đơn vị vận hành thu hẹp khoảng cách với thị trường NIC tương ứng của họ.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Bắt đầu từ quý 3/2026, FFO chuẩn hóa và EBITDAre điều chỉnh đã bao gồm ước tính phí quản lý thưởng tích lũy theo GAAP. Các kỳ trước đó đã được điều chỉnh lại trên cùng cơ sở. Quý này bao gồm 5,4 triệu USD, tương đương 0,02 USD/cổ phiếu, phí quản lý thưởng tích lũy; số tích lũy từ đầu năm đến nay là 22 triệu USD, tương đương 0,09 USD/cổ phiếu. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sự thay đổi trong cách trình bày này không ảnh hưởng đến kết quả theo GAAP hay dòng tiền.

Kết quả kinh doanh và vận hành

SHOP tiếp tục là động lực tăng trưởng chính của DHC. Doanh thu của cùng một bất động sản tăng 5,8% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, trong khi chi phí hoạt động về cơ bản đi ngang. Các sáng kiến thu mua thực phẩm đã giảm chi phí khoảng 1,3 triệu USD so với năm trước.

So với quý trước, NOI cùng bất động sản mảng SHOP đã giảm 4 triệu USD, tương ứng 7,6%. Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng điều này là do lợi ích chi phí một lần trị giá 2,2 triệu USD trong quý 2 không lặp lại, khoảng 1 triệu USD chi phí không thường xuyên trong quý 3 và 2 triệu USD chi phí tiện ích theo mùa. Nếu không tính các khoản mục này, NOI cùng bất động sản quý 3 đã tăng 2,5% so với quý 2.

DHC đã phê duyệt các dự án tại 13 khu dân cư để chuyển đổi diện tích điều dưỡng chuyên khoa không sử dụng hết hoặc đã đóng cửa thành khoảng 356 căn hộ sống độc lập, hỗ trợ sinh hoạt và chăm sóc trí nhớ. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng lợi nhuận tiền mặt ổn định ở mức từ khoảng 15% trở lên. Việc xây dựng dự kiến bắt đầu vào năm 2027, với một số căn dự kiến sẽ được bàn giao vào nửa sau của năm.

Các hợp đồng quản lý mới bao gồm 76 khu dân cư SHOP do các đơn vị vận hành cũ quản lý dự kiến sẽ có hiệu lực vào ngày 1 tháng 1 năm 2027. DHC kỳ vọng các hợp đồng này ban đầu sẽ tạo ra khoảng 2 triệu USD tiết kiệm chi phí hàng năm, đồng thời gắn kết chặt chẽ hơn lợi ích của đơn vị vận hành với lợi ích của cổ đông.

7 cơ sở điều dưỡng chuyên khoa tại Colorado đã được chuyển giao cho The Ensign Group theo hợp đồng thuê ròng triple-net thời hạn 15 năm vào ngày 1 tháng 10. Hợp đồng thuê bao gồm điều khoản tăng giá hàng năm theo CPI và chuyển rủi ro về hoàn trả chi phí, lao động và vốn sang cho bên thuê. Trên cơ sở pro forma, ban lãnh đạo cho biết cấu trúc này sẽ làm tăng biên mảng SHOP hợp nhất quý 3 khoảng 80 điểm cơ bản.

Trong danh mục văn phòng y tế và khoa học đời sống, DHC đã hoàn tất việc cho thuê khoảng 130.000 foot vuông với giá thuê cao hơn 25% so với mức giá trước đó, với thời hạn thuê bình quân có trọng số là 9,7 năm. Tỷ lệ lấp đầy toàn bộ danh mục giảm xuống 88,4% từ mức 92,2% trong quý 2 sau khi hai bên thuê chiếm khoảng 213.000 foot vuông trả mặt bằng vào ngày 1 tháng 7.

DHC đã đạt thỏa thuận bán một bất động sản trống rộng 126.000 foot vuông với giá 10,5 triệu USD và đang đánh giá các lời đề nghị cho hai bất động sản bổ sung tổng cộng khoảng 232.000 foot vuông. Ba tài sản này đã tạo ra NOI âm 690.000 USD trong quý 3, tương đương gần 2,8 triệu USD trên cơ sở năm hóa.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

DHC đã nâng dự báo NOI cùng bất động sản mảng SHOP năm 2026 lên 190 triệu - 200 triệu USD, tăng 5 triệu USD ở mức trung vị. Triển vọng điều chỉnh giả định:

• Tăng trưởng chi phí hoạt động mảng SHOP là 2,3%, giảm từ mức 2,5% trước đó.
• Tăng trưởng giá thuê bình quân hàng tháng là 5,6%, tăng từ mức 5,5%.
• Tăng trưởng tỷ lệ lấp đầy là 200 điểm cơ bản, không đổi.
• Tăng trưởng doanh thu là 6,3%.

Dự báo cả năm được cập nhật cũng bao gồm:

Dự báo FFO chuẩn hóa bao gồm phí quản lý thưởng ước tính là 29,3 triệu USD, tương đương 0,12 USD/cổ phiếu. Mức tăng NOI của mảng SHOP đã đóng góp thêm khoảng 0,02 USD/cổ phiếu vào triển vọng, trong khi phí quản lý thưởng làm giảm 0,12 USD/cổ phiếu. Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng phí quản lý thưởng cuối cùng sẽ phụ thuộc vào tổng lợi nhuận cho cổ đông của DHC so với chỉ số tham chiếu tính đến ngày 31 tháng 12 và có thể khác biệt đáng kể so với số tiền đã tích lũy tính đến ngày 30 tháng 9.

Kết quả quý 4 dự kiến sẽ bao gồm khoảng 2 triệu USD NOI tiền mặt từ trọn một quý tiền thuê của Ensign. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết bản thân giao dịch không phải là lý do khiến dự báo NOI mảng SHOP cao hơn, mà điều đó phản ánh hoạt động kinh doanh cốt lõi mạnh mẽ hơn của mảng SHOP.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

Tỷ lệ lấp đầy mảng văn phòng y tế và khoa học đời sống đã giảm sau khi các bên thuê rời đi vào tháng 7. Ngoài ra, một bên thuê mảng khoa học đời sống tại Fremont, California, đóng góp 2,2 triệu USD doanh thu tiền thuê hàng năm, dự kiến sẽ trả mặt bằng vào cuối tháng 11.

Đợt đáo hạn nợ tiếp theo của DHC là 500 triệu USD trái phiếu tín chấp cao cấp đáo hạn vào tháng 2 năm 2028. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết công ty ở vị thế sẵn sàng để xử lý khoản nợ đáo hạn này, dẫn chứng 4 tỷ USD tài sản không bị thế chấp, dòng tiền từ mảng SHOP đang cải thiện và các chỉ số tín dụng mạnh mẽ hơn.

Các chương trình ưu đãi chuyển đến có mục tiêu đã giúp đẩy nhanh tỷ lệ lấp đầy mảng SHOP nhưng lại khiến giá thuê bình quân hàng tháng đi ngang so với quý trước. Ban lãnh đạo không kỳ vọng mức ưu đãi cao sẽ kéo dài trong dài hạn và dự kiến mức tăng giá thuê sẽ trở nên rõ ràng hơn khi các khu dân cư đi vào ổn định.

Khoản tích lũy phí quản lý thưởng ước tính có thể biến động từ quý này sang quý khác theo giá cổ phiếu của DHC và tổng lợi nhuận tương đối cho cổ đông, tạo ra sự biến động trong FFO chuẩn hóa và EBITDAre điều chỉnh.

Điểm nhấn phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo chỉ ra rằng chi phí vốn định kỳ có thể giảm thêm trong năm 2027 và 2028, với mục tiêu dài hạn hơn là gần 3.000 USD trên mỗi căn.

Phân bổ vốn tiếp tục tập trung vào danh mục hiện có của DHC, đặc biệt là việc chuyển đổi các dãy nhà điều dưỡng chuyên khoa. Tiền thu được từ bán tài sản có thể được sử dụng để tái đầu tư hoặc giảm tỷ lệ đòn bẩy, trong khi các thương vụ thâu tóm được xếp vào ưu tiên thấp hơn. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết thanh khoản hiện tại, bao gồm hạn mức tín dụng 150 triệu USD chưa rút, là đủ cho các khoản đầu tư theo kế hoạch.

Khoảng 1 triệu USD chi phí không thường xuyên trong quý 3 bao gồm các khoản quyết toán thuế bán hàng và thuế sử dụng cũng như nợ xấu gia tăng. Ban lãnh đạo không kỳ vọng các khoản mục này sẽ lặp lại trong quý 4 hoặc các kỳ sau đó.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các chương trình ưu đãi tỷ lệ lấp đầy đang được áp dụng có chọn lọc chứ không phải là chiến lược vĩnh viễn trên toàn bộ danh mục. Công ty kỳ vọng giá thuê tiếp tục cải thiện và nhận thêm lợi ích từ việc giảm chi phí cũng như các sáng kiến doanh thu trong năm 2027.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Diversified Healthcare Trust Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Matthew Murphy, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Matt Murphy

Good morning. Joining me on today's call are Chris Pilato, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt Brown, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Today's call includes a presentation by management followed by a question-and-answer session with sell-side analysts.

Please note that the recording and retransmission of today's conference call is strictly prohibited without the prior written consent of the company. Today's conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other securities laws.

These forward-looking statements are based upon DHC's beliefs and expectations as of today, Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The company undertakes no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to the forward-looking statements made in today's conference call. other than through filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC.

Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause those differences is contained in our filings with the SEC. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon any forward-looking statements.

In addition, this call may contain non-GAAP numbers, including normalized funds from operations or normalized FFO, net operating income or NOI, cash basis net operating income or cash basis NOI and adjusted EBITDAre. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to net income is available in our financial results package which can be found on our website at www.dhcreit.com.

Beginning this quarter, our calculation of normalized FFO and adjusted EBITDAre include estimated incentive management fees accrued under GAAP, and prior periods have been recast to conform to this presentation. And finally, we will be providing guidance on this call, including NOI.

We are not providing a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures as part of our guidance because certain information required for such reconciliation is not available without unreasonable efforts or at all. such as gains and losses or impairment charges related to the disposition of real estate. With that, I would now like to turn the call over to Chris.

Michael Kodesch

Thank you, Matt. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Our third quarter results reflect continued execution on the strategy we have laid out for the year. That strategy shows up across stronger operating results in our SHOP portfolio, active optimization of how we own and operate individual assets and a steadily improving financial profile.

Following the market close yesterday, DHC reported normalized FFO of $30.7 million or $0.13 per share and adjusted EBITDAre of $73.4 million, an increase of 28.4% year-over-year. Same property cash basis NOI increased 25.6% to $77.9 million and consolidated NOI increased 27.5% to $80.8 million.

Before going further, I want to note a change in our presentation Beginning this quarter, adjusted EBITDA and normalized FFO include incentive management fees as recognized under GAAP and prior periods have been recast on the same basis.

On a comparable basis, normalized FFO increased from $0.12 per share in the second quarter and from $0.02 per share a year ago and adjusted EBITDA increased both sequentially and year-over-year. The momentum in our portfolio is also reflected in our outlook. Today, we are raising our same-property shop NOI guidance by $5 million at the midpoint and lowering our expected SHOP recurring capital expenditures by $10 million.

Matt will walk through the full guidance update, including the effect of the incentive management fee change. Let me start with our shop segment. Same property NOI increased 50.4% year-over-year to $48 million, this growth was driven by a 200 basis point increase in occupancy to 84.4% and a 5.2% increase in average monthly rate which together expand same-property NOI margin by 470 basis points to 15.8%.

We used targeted move in incentives this quarter to accelerate occupancy which kept average monthly rate flat sequentially. As communities stabilize, we expect to reduce these concessions and allow rate growth to flow through more fully. Expense discipline also continues with our dietary procurement initiatives contributing to an expense reduction by approximately $1.3 million compared with the prior year.

Importantly, we believe significant embedded upside remains with same-property occupancy at 84.4%, we estimate 500 to 600 basis points of occupancy upside as our operators close the occupancy gaps between our communities and their respective NIC markets. Beyond occupancy, we continue to reposition underutilized and close skilled nursing weeks into independent living, assisted living and memory care units.

We have now approved projects across 13 communities that we expect will add approximately 356 units. We expect these investments to generate stabilized cash returns in the mid-teens or better while converting vacant space into revenue-generating units.

Finally, we are putting new management agreements in place across 76 shop communities that are managed by our legacy operators. Implementation is expected on January 1, 2027. These agreements extend the operator framework we initiated across our transition communities in 2025, including more closely aligned incentive structures and appropriately sized base management fees.

We expect them to initially generate approximately $2 million of annual cost savings while further aligning operator incentives with shareholder interests. Turning to our portfolio optimization strategy. Over the past 2 years, DHC has repositioned its portfolio through asset sales, operator transitions and targeted capital investment.

With much of that foundation in place, we are increasingly focused on optimizing individual assets. The clearest example this quarter is our transition of 7 skilled nursing facilities in Colorado to a 15-year triple-net lease with the Ensign Group effective on October 1.

This transition does 2 primary things for us. First, it increases cash flow. First year contractual rent is approximately $8 million with CPI annual escalators, which compares with $5.1 million of NOI over the prior 12 months or about $3.5 million after capital expenditures. Second, it sharpens our SHOP portfolio.

Skilled nursing relies primarily on government reimbursement and is a more labor-intensive which is why these facilities generated only about a 5.8% margin for the quarter. Skilled nursing is also more commonly under triple net leases with specialized operators. The new structure shifts reimbursement, labor and capital exposure to the tenant leads our shop portfolio more focused on private pay senior housing and on a pro forma basis, would have lifted our third quarter consolidated shop margin by about 80 basis points.

We are applying the same asset-by-asset approach to operator alignment. In September, we provided notice to transition 6 shop communities in Georgia, representing 486 units to a new manager, which we expect to begin as early as the fourth quarter. This consolidates these communities with an operator that has deep regional expertise and fits the operator framework we have built across our transition portfolio. We look forward to working closely with them to ensure a seamless transition.

Turning to our medical office and life science portfolio. Leasing activity remained healthy during the quarter. We completed approximately 130,000 square feet of leasing at rental rates 25% above prior rents with a weighted average lease term of 9.7 years. As discussed on our second quarter earnings call, 2 tenants representing approximately 213,000 square feet vacated on July 1, and and total occupancy declined to 88.4% from 92.2% in the prior quarter.

Near-term expirations are limited. Through year-end, $3.3 million of annualized rental income or 2.1% of the total is scheduled to expire. This includes $2.2 million from a life science tenant in Fremont, California that we expect to vacate at the end of November and we are actively marketing that space for lease.

The portfolio's weighted average remaining lease term was approximately 5.1 years at quarter end. As part of our capital recycling efforts, we are actively pursuing disposition opportunities. As of yesterday, we were under agreement to sell 1 vacant property consisting 126,000 square feet for $10.5 million, and we are valuing offers on 2 additional properties totaling approximately 232,000 square feet.

Together, these 3 properties generated negative NOI of $690,000 during the quarter or nearly $2.8 million annually, selling them eliminate that drag and provides capital for reinvestment. Looking ahead, our path to earnings growth is embedded in our existing portfolio. Several drivers are already in motion for 2027, a full year rent from the Ensign lease approximately $2 million of annual savings from our new shop legacy management agreements effective January 1, skilled nursing ROI conversion projects, adding approximately 350 units and the sale of nonearning medical office properties.

Most significant is the continued improvement in shop occupancy and rate on rate concessions normalize. Our third quarter results show this strategy is working with stronger shop operations, active optimization of individual assets and improving financial profile and a higher shot NOI outlook for the year.

These results are clearly resonating with investors at DHC has been the top-performing REIT in the U.S. over the past 3 years, with a total shareholder return in excess of 277% and we remain confident in our trajectory and in our ability to deliver sustainable earnings growth and long-term value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to Matt.

Matthew Brown

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Before I review our results, I would like to walk through a change to how we present our non-GAAP financial measures. The SEC recently provided its interpretation that incentive management fees accrued under GAAP should be included in normalized FFO and adjusted EBITDAre.

Historically, we excluded the incentive fee in these measures. While we believe our prior approach was appropriate and supported period-to-period comparability, we have adopted the SEC's interpretation and changed our presentation. Beginning this quarter, normalized FFO, adjusted EBITDAre and CAD include estimated incentive management fees as they are accrued under GAAP, and we have recast prior periods to conform.

To be clear, this is a change in presentation only. It does not affect our GAAP results or our cash flows, and it does not change how the incentive fee is calculated or the amount, if any, that would ultimately be payable to RMR because the fee is based on DHC's total shareholder return relative to a benchmark index over a 3-year period ending December 31, the accrual will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter with our share price.

For the third quarter, normalized FFO and adjusted EBITDA include $5.4 million or $0.02 per share of accrued incentive fees, and year-to-date, we have accrued $22 million or $0.09 per share. Page 8 of our earnings presentation includes a bridge to previously issued guidance. We believe this bridge will assist our investors with comparability between our revised normalized FFO and adjusted EBITDA calculations from prior guidance.

During the third quarter, our normalized FFO was $30.7 million or $0.13 per share, and our adjusted EBITDA was $73.4 million, representing a 28.4% increase year-over-year. Our third quarter results continue to show the earnings power of our SHOP assets, the cash-generating ability of our business and a significantly stronger balance sheet than a year ago.

During the third quarter, consolidated same-property cash basis NOI was $77.9 million, a 25.6% increase year-over-year, Shop continues to drive this growth with same-property NOI increasing 50.4% year-over-year to $48 million and same-property NOI margin expanding 470 basis points to 15.8%. This improvement came from both the top line and expense side.

Same property shop revenue increased 5.8% year-over-year, driven by a 200 basis point increase in occupancy to 84.4% and and 5.2% growth in average monthly rate. At the same time, same property operating expenses were essentially flat year-over-year and expense core declined 30 basis points as our operators continue to capture the dietary maintenance and labor savings we discussed last quarter.

Sequentially, Shop Same property NOI decreased $4 million or 7.6%, driven by second quarter results that included approximately $2.2 million of onetime expense benefits that did not recur. Additionally, the third quarter includes approximately $1 million of nonrecurring expenses and $2 million of higher utility costs due to typical seasonality.

Excluding these items, third quarter same property NOI would have been 2.5% higher than the second quarter. Importantly, same property occupancy increased 130 basis points sequentially, our largest quarterly gain this year, which supports our view that the occupancy ramp on our transition communities is well underway. In our medical office and life science portfolio, same-property cash basis NOI was $22.9 million, a 1.6% decrease year-over-year.

This primarily reflects the previously disclosed tenant who vacated effective July 1 and which also drove the 120 basis point sequential decline in same-property occupancy to 94.5%. Third quarter G&A expense of $14.6 million includes $5.4 million of estimated incentive management fees, as I've discussed, and $2.2 million of noncash share-based compensation.

Excluding these items, G&A was $7 million, consistent with the second quarter. During the quarter, we invested $28.9 million of capital, including $22.6 million into our shop communities and $6.3 million into our medical office and life science portfolio. Year-to-date spending of $76.5 million is $32.1 million or approximately 30% lower than the same period in 2025.

We are reducing our 2026 recurring CapEx guidance by $10 million at the midpoint to $90 million to $105 million. At quarter end, we had total liquidity of $261 million, including $111 million of cash our undrawn $150 million secured revolving credit facility. Net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDAre was 8.2x, a 2.5x reduction from a year ago. This calculation now includes incentive fees, which added 0.8x, excluding them, leverage was 7.4x, within our 6.5 to 7.5x target range.

Adjusted EBITDAre to interest expense improved to 2x from 1.2x a year ago, and we remain comfortably in compliance with all of our bond covenants. Our next debt maturity is our $500 million of senior unsecured notes due February 2028 with $4 billion of unencumbered assets representing over 64% of our portfolio, growing SHOP cash flow and steadily improving credit metrics we believe we are well positioned to address this maturity.

Turning to full year 2026 guidance. Excluding the presentation change regarding estimated incentive fees, we are raising our SHOP same-property NOI guidance by $5 million at the midpoint to $190 million to $200 million, and that increase flows through to adjusted EBITDA and normalized FFO.

The increase reflects lower expected operating expense growth of 2.3% compared with 2.5% previously an average monthly rate growth of 5.6%, up from 5.5% and with occupancy growth unchanged at 200 basis points and revenue growth of 6.3%. It should also be noted that for the 9 months ended September 30, same-property shop NOI was $144.3 million.

Separately, adjusted EBITDAre and normalized FFO guidance now includes estimated incentive management fees of $29.3 million or $0.12 per share. Netting the 2, normalized FFO guidance moves to $0.46 to $0.52 per share from $0.56 to $0.62, up $0.02 from the SHOP NOI increase and down $0.12 for the estimated incentive fee.

The final amount, if any, will be based on our total return relative to the benchmark index through December 31 and could differ materially from the amount accrued as of September 30. Updated guidance ranges are as follows: $2 million to $328 million of same-property NOI, adjusted EBITDAre of $276 million to $291 million, normalized FFO of $111 million to $126 million or $0.46 to $0.52 per share and recurring capital expenditures of $90 million to $105 million which is a reduction of $10 million at the midpoint, as I previously discussed.

Fourth quarter results will also include a full quarter of Ensign Rent for the 7 skilled nursing facilities, which will contribute approximately $2 million of cash NOI. We are confident in our updated full year guidance, and we are building momentum into 2027. We will share our 2027 guidance on our next earnings call which will include changes to our shop segment, mainly driven by the 7 skilled nursing facilities now leased to Ensign being presented in our -- all Other segment. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is from Henry Newell with RBC Capital Markets.

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Unknown Analyst

Just hoping you could touch on the updated CapEx outlook briefly. Should we expect really this updated outlook to be a run rate moving forward into '27 and '28. Or is there any reason why we should expect recurring CapEx to decrease in '27 and '28.

Unknown Executive

Yes, it's a good question. I could see it decreasing a little bit into 2027 and 2028. We've been targeting closer to 3,000 per unit as we look forward. So we do expect that to continue to kind of come down as it has been over the last few years.

Michael Kodesch

Wonderful. And then just more generally, how are you viewing your different sources of capital at the moment? Is the current leverage profile and ongoing concern? And do you think you'll continue to finance CapEx or maybe any acquisitions with dispositions or something else moving forward? .

On the latter part of the question, I think right now, most of the investment we plan to make is within the existing portfolio. We've talked about the conversion of closed skilled nursing wings and that being kind of a priority given the returns that come from that profile. So that will be kind of top priority.

We are selling some assets, which we highlighted. I don't think the overall proceeds are overly material, but nonetheless, that will provide optionality for reinvestment to either delever or again, that's part of the flow skilled nursing wing strategy and then maybe in kind of small select cases considering whether or not acquisition makes sense, but I think that's kind of last aligned. So right now, it's really focused on the existing portfolio and kind of the embedded upside opportunities that we see and then Matt.

Yes. Just to add to that on leverage, leverage has been on a nice decline as we've seen the SHOP performance significantly improve over the last 15 to 18 months, and our trajectory should prove that, that will further decline as we move beyond 2026.

And as it relates to just kind of capital and liquidity for the things that we're focused on, which, as Chris mentioned, is mostly in our existing portfolio. We have adequate liquidity to continue making those investments. We have the $150 million credit facility. We have not drawn on that. So that produces us with sufficient liquidity for us.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from John Massoca with B. Riley.

Unknown Analyst

Maybe just a quick clarification. With regards to the FLIR 26 guidance, does that include the positive impact you're expecting to NOI from the Ensign transaction?

Michael Kodesch

Yes. I mean it's factored in that we're going to receive $2 million in the fourth quarter. For the 9 months ended September, we've received a little bit over $4 million of NOI there. So there's some moving pieces as it relates to the change, but it is included. Is that part of where the increased shop NOI expectations are coming? Or is that something that was maybe kind of previously contemplated in the guide?

No, it's unrelated to that change in structure. -- on those skilled nursing facilities. But we've been trending towards the higher end of our SHOP NOI guidance for the first several quarters. And we're just shy of $145 million year-to-date through 9 months. So we really have added conviction in our SHOP results, and that's really the driver of the $5 million increase to the guide on this call. .

Unknown Executive

And John, I would just add that going back to the enzyme. The proceeds from the lease we get for the quarter in Q4 is more or less equivalent to what we would have gotten under the RIDEA. So as Matt alluded to, that's a wash. And again, the upside is more just performance base, which is driving the guidance.

Alexander Kubicek

Okay. In terms of the one-timers in 3Q, can you just provide a little more color on what those were? And are those things that we should expect to occur seasonally in 3Q going forward? Or was it just kind of really onetime events?

Unknown Executive

No, they were largely onetime events. It was about $1 million in total. We had some sales and use tax true-ups and a little bit of elevated bad debt. But we don't expect those to recur into Q4 or beyond.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. And then as you think about occupancy versus rate. I mean, should we expect some of these strategies using concessions to kind of promote occupancy before you push rate to continue going forward? Is that something that we can see kind of the next couple of quarters? Or is this kind of really a onetime situation based on an opportunity operator saw or something else in the market?

Unknown Executive

Yes, it's a mix. I mean, look, the concession piece is more hand-to-hand combat on certain assets to drive strategy. It's just -- it's more pronounced now as we think about where we see the opportunity. I don't envision this being something that continues long term. I think this is kind of incremental, and we will continue to see rate lift across the portfolio.

And so I think, generally speaking, we would expect to see at least the same lift we got in 2026. And again, we've also talked about a variety of different strategies we're finding with respect to expense reduction levels of care on the revenue side. So there's kind of a whole suite of different initiatives that we continue to work through, which will be more pronounced as we go into 2027.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. And then last 1 for me. In terms of some of the redevelopment potential within the portfolio, has any of that started? I mean, has there been any spend yet on that? I guess that wouldn't show up in the recurring CapEx guide, right? So are you in process on any of those projects? Or are those still primarily kind of 27 starts?

Unknown Executive

They are all '27 starts. Any spend this year is really soft costs related to design and consultants, but kind of the swinging of hammers will commence next year, and then we'll start to see delivery of some of those towards the back half of the year.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] It is showing no further questions. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Bilotto for any closing remarks.

Christopher Bilotto

Well, thank you for joining our call today. We look forward to seeing many of you at the NAREIT conference in Atlanta this November. That concludes our call.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.