Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3/2026 của Archrock (AROC): Đơn đặt hàng tăng, duy trì dự báo

Archrock (NYSE: AROC) đã báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh quý 3 năm 2026 tăng trưởng nhờ hiệu suất hoạt động hợp đồng vững chắc, tỷ lệ sử dụng đội ngũ thiết bị ở mức cao và kỷ luật chi phí đã bù đắp cho nhu cầu dịch vụ hậu mãi yếu hơn.

Điểm tin chính

• Lợi nhuận ròng tăng lên 84,5 triệu USD, tương đương 0,48 USD mỗi cổ phiếu, từ mức 71,2 triệu USD, tương đương 0,40 USD mỗi cổ phiếu trong quý 3/2025. EBITDA đã điều chỉnh tăng lên 228,4 triệu USD từ mức 220,9 triệu USD.
• Tỷ lệ sử dụng hoạt động hợp đồng kết thúc quý ở mức 94,3%, trong khi biên lợi nhuận gộp đã điều chỉnh đạt 72%, đánh dấu quý thứ tám liên tiếp đạt từ 70% trở lên.
• Quý 3 là quý có lượng đơn đặt hàng mạnh nhất của Archrock kể từ quý 2/2023. Lượng đơn đặt hàng tính từ đầu năm đến nay tăng 13%, với nhu cầu mở rộng tại các khu vực Permian, Rockies, Haynesville và Mid-Continent.
• Công ty đã xác nhận lại dự báo EBITDA đã điều chỉnh cho cả năm 2026 từ 865 triệu USD đến 885 triệu USD và dự báo tổng chi tiêu vốn từ 400 triệu USD đến 445 triệu USD.
• Archrock đã tạo ra 50 triệu USD dòng tiền tự do đã điều chỉnh và chi trả 41 triệu USD tiền cổ tức. Tỷ lệ đòn bẩy vào cuối quý là 2,5 lần, thấp hơn khoảng mục tiêu dài hạn của công ty là 3 đến 3,5 lần.
• Ban lãnh đạo duy trì triển vọng đầu tư tăng trưởng giai đoạn 2027-2030 từ 1,4 tỷ USD đến 1,6 tỷ USD, chủ yếu để mua khoảng 1 triệu mã lực thiết bị nén công suất lớn và chạy bằng động cơ điện.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Hoạt động hợp đồng tiếp tục là động lực thu nhập chính của Archrock. Công suất mã lực vận hành tăng khoảng 21.000 so với quý trước, và doanh thu trên mỗi mã lực mỗi tháng tăng 4% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái lên 24,38 USD. Doanh thu tăng mặc dù công ty đã bán khoảng 112.000 mã lực vận hành phi chiến lược kể từ kỳ cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Giá chất bôi trơn cao hơn và chi phí chuẩn bị sẵn sàng để tái kích hoạt các thiết bị nhàn rỗi đã gây áp lực lên chi phí. Archrock đã bù đắp một phần tác động này bằng cách giảm khối lượng mua chất bôi trơn, kiểm soát chi phí phụ tùng và thù lao, đồng thời tái bố trí nhân lực dịch vụ hậu mãi nội bộ sang hoạt động hợp đồng thay vì sử dụng lao động bên ngoài với chi phí cao hơn.

Công ty đã nhận được khoảng 125.000 mã lực thiết bị tính từ đầu năm đến nay và dự kiến sẽ nhận thêm khoảng 50.000 mã lực trong quý 4. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết một số thiết bị sẽ bắt đầu đóng góp doanh thu trong quý 4, với tác động doanh thu bổ sung dự kiến vào quý 1/2027.

Lượng đơn đặt hàng tăng so với quý trước và cao hơn 13% tính từ đầu năm đến nay. Khu vực Permian đạt lượng đơn đặt hàng cao nhất trong một năm, nhưng chỉ chiếm khoảng 30% đến 40% mức tăng trưởng hàng quý. Khu vực Rockies là khu vực tăng trưởng lớn nhất của Archrock, cùng với sự mở rộng bổ sung ở các khu vực Haynesville và Mid-Continent.

Dịch vụ hậu mãi tiếp tục chịu áp lực khi khách hàng trì hoãn các đợt bảo dưỡng lớn và giảm mua phụ tùng. Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh khả năng sinh lời hơn là sản lượng, giữ biên lợi nhuận gộp đã điều chỉnh của phân phúc này ở mức 23% mặc dù doanh thu sụt giảm.

Ban lãnh đạo đã đề cập đến sự tăng trưởng sản lượng khí tự nhiên của Mỹ, công suất vận chuyển mới từ Permian và nhu cầu LNG là những động lực thúc đẩy ngành nén khí trong dài hạn. Các dự báo ngành được trích dẫn trong cuộc họp dự báo nhu cầu khí tự nhiên liên quan đến LNG sẽ tăng từ khoảng 18 Bcf mỗi ngày vào năm 2026 lên 34 Bcf mỗi ngày vào năm 2030 và 40 Bcf mỗi ngày vào năm 2035. Ban lãnh đạo cũng xác định các trung tâm dữ liệu và những khách hàng tiêu thụ điện công nghiệp khác là nguồn nhu cầu tiềm năng tăng thêm.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Archrock xác nhận lại dự báo EBITDA đã điều chỉnh cho cả năm 2026 từ 865 triệu USD đến 885 triệu USD. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết triển vọng này được hỗ trợ bởi hiệu suất hoạt động hợp đồng và việc kiểm soát chi phí, đồng thời đã tính đến việc hoãn bảo dưỡng dịch vụ hậu mãi cũng như áp lực chi phí chất bôi trơn và chi phí chuẩn bị sẵn sàng trong ngắn hạn.

Công ty cũng xác nhận lại dự báo tổng chi tiêu vốn năm 2026 từ 400 triệu USD đến 445 triệu USD, bao gồm:

• Chi tiêu vốn cho tăng trưởng từ 250 triệu USD đến 275 triệu USD
• Chi tiêu vốn cho bảo dưỡng từ 125 triệu USD đến 135 triệu USD
• Chi tiêu vốn khác từ 25 triệu USD đến 35 triệu USD, chủ yếu dành cho phương tiện mới

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ tài trợ cho đầu tư tăng trưởng bằng dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh và tiền thu được từ việc bán các tài sản phi chiến lược.

Trong giai đoạn từ năm 2027 đến năm 2030, Archrock tiếp tục dự kiến tổng vốn đầu tư tăng trưởng tích lũy từ 1,4 tỷ USD đến 1,6 tỷ USD để mua khoảng 1 triệu mã lực. Công ty có kế hoạch hoàn trả 25% đến 35% dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh thông qua cổ tức và mua lại cổ phiếu khi có cơ hội.

Cổ tức hàng quý duy trì ở mức 0,23 USD mỗi cổ phiếu, tương đương 0,92 USD tính theo năm, cao hơn khoảng 10% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Tỷ lệ trang phiếu cổ tức đạt 3,8 lần. Archrock còn 113,2 triệu USD trong hạn mức mua lại cổ phiếu đã được phê duyệt vào cuối quý.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

• Thời gian giao hàng động cơ của Caterpillar vẫn ở mức trên 180 tuần, yêu cầu Archrock phải đặt hàng thiết bị trước một thời gian rất dài. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết thời gian giao hàng kéo dài đến năm 2029, làm kéo dài khoảng thời gian từ lúc nhận đơn hàng đến khi có doanh thu ban đầu.
• Khách hàng tiếp tục hoãn việc bảo dưỡng dịch vụ hậu mãi và ban lãnh đạo cho biết thời điểm phục hồi vẫn khó dự báo.
• Giá chất bôi trơn và chi phí đưa thiết bị nhàn rỗi trở lại hoạt động tiếp tục là những lực cản vận hành trong ngắn hạn, mặc dù chi phí chuẩn bị sẵn sàng dự kiến sẽ hạ nhiệt theo thời gian.
• Chi phí SG&A trong quý 3 đã hưởng lợi từ những thay đổi do giá cổ phiếu tác động đến khoản thù lao khuyến khích dài hạn. Ban lãnh đạo lưu ý rằng không nên coi mức chi phí quý 3 là mức duy trì thường xuyên và dự kiến chi phí SG&A sẽ tăng so với quý trước trong quý 4 nếu không có biến động giá cổ phiếu đáng kể.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ có biến động khi chu kỳ đầu tư hạ tầng năng lượng và điện rộng lớn hơn diễn ra, mặc dù cho biết các yếu tố nền tảng về nhu cầu khí tự nhiên và nén khí về bản chất không có thay đổi đáng kể.

Tóm tắt phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Thời điểm ghi nhận đơn hàng và doanh thu: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết đơn đặt hàng mạnh hơn phản ánh việc khách hàng chuẩn bị cho sự tăng trưởng nhu cầu liên quan đến đường ống, LNG và điện. Theo thời gian giao hàng thiết bị bình thường là 52 tuần, khoảng thời gian từ khi đặt hàng đến khi phát sinh doanh thu sẽ là khoảng 15 tháng. Thời gian giao hàng kéo dài hiện tại khiến thời gian chuyển đổi dài hơn đáng kể, mặc dù thiết bị thường đi vào hoạt động ngay sau khi giao hàng.

Cân bằng thị trường nén khí: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết tiếp tục đánh giá thị trường có nhiều khả năng đối mặt với tình trạng thiếu hụt thiết bị nén khí hơn là dư thừa nguồn cung. Tỷ lệ sử dụng cao và thời gian giao hàng thiết bị kéo dài hỗ trợ cho nhận định đó.

Công nghệ và biên lợi nhuận: Toàn bộ đội ngũ thiết bị của Archrock được kết nối thông qua hệ thống đo từ xa (telemetry). Công ty cũng đang triển khai tự động hóa và trí tuệ nhân tạo trên khắp các hoạt động tại hiện trường. Ban lãnh đạo mô tả đợt triển khai này đang ở giai đoạn đầu và kỳ vọng nó sẽ hỗ trợ thời gian hoạt động của khách hàng, hiệu quả nội bộ và cải thiện thêm biên lợi nhuận gộp.

Phân bổ vốn: Archrock tiếp tục cân bằng giữa đầu tư tăng trưởng, cổ tức, mua lại cổ phiếu khi có cơ hội và sức mạnh bảng cân đối kế toán. Kể từ khi chương trình mua lại bắt đầu vào tháng 4 năm 2023, công ty đã mua khoảng 4,6 triệu cổ phiếu với giá trung bình 20,91 USD, tổng cộng là 96,9 triệu USD.

Nguồn nhu cầu trực tiếp: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết mảng kinh doanh nén khí của họ tập trung vào các hệ thống thu gom tập trung công suất lớn và bơm nâng khí (gas lift). Bơm nâng khí chiếm khoảng 35% đến 40% mảng kinh doanh và hỗ trợ khai thác dầu.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to the Archrock Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. Your host for today's call is Megan Repine, Vice President of Investor Relations at Archrock.

I will now turn the call over to Ms. Repine. You may begin.

Megan Repine

Thank you, Jill. Hello, and we appreciate you joining us on today's call.

With me today are Brad Childers, President and Chief Executive Officer of Archrock; and Mohit Singh, Chief Financial Officer of Archrock.

Yesterday, we released our financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2026. If you have not received a copy, you can find the information on the company's website at www.archrock.com.

During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 based on our beliefs and expectations, as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Archrock's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call.

In addition, our discussion today will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, adjusted net income, adjusted free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow after dividend. For reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to our GAAP financial results, please see yesterday's press release and our Form 8-K furnished to the SEC.

I'll now turn the call over to Brad to discuss Archrock's third quarter results and to provide an update on our business.

D. Childers

Thank you, Megan, and good morning, everyone.

Turning to the quarter. Our strong performance reflected the quality of our operating platform and disciplined execution. The results reinforce our confidence in the business and our ability to invest for growth while returning capital to shareholders.

Before getting into the financial highlights, I want to recognize what matters most; the safety of our employees. Safety remains our first priority, and we're proud to have recorded 0 reportable injuries in the first 3 quarters of the year. That performance reflects the focus and discipline of our employees across the organization, and I want to thank them for continuing to look out for one another and operating the right way every day.

A few highlights from the quarter. We delivered robust net income of $84.5 million, or $0.48 per share and adjusted EBITDA of $228.4 million, supported by strong contract operations fundamentals and strong operating performance across the business. Contract operations utilization remained above 94%, and contract operations adjusted gross margin reached 72%, our eighth consecutive quarter at 70% or higher.

The third quarter was our highest bookings quarter since the second quarter of 2023, with year-to-date bookings 13% above the prior year period. We generated $50 million of adjusted free cash flow and returned $41 million to shareholders through dividends. We ended the quarter with leverage of 2.5x and dividend coverage of 3.8x, underscoring our financial strength and capacity to invest in growth while returning capital to shareholders. Overall, our third quarter results reinforce our confidence in the core business and our outlook for the remainder of the year.

Geopolitical volatility continues to underscore the criticality of secure and reliable energy supplies from stable regions and the long-term strategic value of U.S. natural gas. Domestic production is reaching record levels, with 2026 volumes expected to grow approximately 2% or 2.3 Bcf per day and Permian volumes approximately 6% or 1.4 Bcf per day, both from 2025 levels as associated gas production outpaces oil growth.

At the same time, new Permian takeaway capacity is coming online. Hugh Brinson Phase 1 entered service in the third quarter and Blackcomb is currently ramping. Together, these projects add approximately 4 Bcf per day of additional capacity, with another 11 Bcf per day planned by 2030.

On the demand side, LNG remains the largest and most visible source of long-term growth. Industry forecasts point to LNG-related natural gas demand increasing from approximately 18 Bcf per day in 2026 to 34 Bcf per day by 2030 and 40 Bcf per day by 2035. Beyond LNG, growing power demand from data centers and other industrial users represents another meaningful source of potential upside.

Together, these supply and demand trends are driving the need for additional compression capacity. Our customers are preparing to serve growth across LNG, power generation and other end markets, and we're supporting them through reliable service and disciplined investment in the capacity they need. That opportunity is evident in contract operations where healthy customer demand is translating into stronger bookings, high utilization and continued requirements for compression equipment.

Bookings increased sequentially, making the third quarter our highest bookings quarter since the second quarter of 2023 and bringing year-to-date bookings 13% above the prior year period. Permian bookings were the highest in a year as rising gas-to-oil ratios and an improving production outlook continued to drive compression demand. We exited the quarter at a strong 94.3% utilization, reflecting healthy customer demand and the quality of our fleet.

Operating horsepower increased approximately 21,000 sequentially. We expect to put additional idle equipment back to work by year-end as we continue to meet customer demand. Contract operations revenue increased approximately 1.5% year-over-year to $331 million despite the sale of approximately 112,000 non-strategic operating horsepower since the prior year period.

Revenue per horsepower per month increased 4% year-over-year to $24.38. Adjusted gross margin remained excellent at 72%. Higher lube oil prices and make-ready costs associated with returning idle equipment to service created near-term cost pressure, but through disciplined cost management and our relentless pursuit of operating efficiencies, our operations team was able to offset these headwinds and sustain strong third quarter margins.

Cat engine lead times remain extended at over 180 weeks, reinforcing the importance of securing equipment to support our customers' growth. Our financial strength and market position allow us to plan for these requirements and deploy new horsepower through a disciplined returns-based investment program.

Moving to our aftermarket services segment. We continue to see customers defer major maintenance activity during the quarter. The timing of this work can be lumpy and difficult to predict and our near-term visibility remains limited. Against that backdrop, profitability was a strong point in the quarter, however, reflecting disciplined execution and our continued focus on higher quality, higher-margin work.

Turning to capital allocation. We remain disciplined and returns focused, balancing high-return growth investment, durable shareholder returns and balance sheet strength. For 2026, we are reaffirming growth capital expenditures of $250 million to $275 million to meet customer demand.

Looking further ahead, the outlook we outlined last quarter continues to support $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion of cumulative growth capital investment from 2027 through 2030 to fund the purchase of approximately 1 million horsepower, predominantly in large horsepower and electric motor drive newbuild compression.

Strong demand fundamentals and attractive returns reinforce our confidence in this investment outlook. We plan to return 25% to 35% of operating cash flow to shareholders through continued dividend growth and opportunistic share repurchases. Our quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share is approximately 10% higher year-over-year, supported by strong dividend coverage. We also retain approximately $113 million of share repurchase authorization, providing flexibility to act opportunistically when we see attractive value in our shares.

After funding these growth investments and shareholder returns, we expect to continue to generate free cash flow. Together with leverage of 2.5x, comfortably below our long-term target of 3x to 3.5x, that cash flow gives us capacity to selectively pursue inorganic opportunities that complement our core business, strengthen our platform and meet our disciplined return criteria.

In summary, bookings momentum and high utilization reflect durable demand for compression capacity. Our cash flow and balance sheet give us the flexibility to invest alongside our customers while maintaining meaningful shareholder returns. We remain focused on deploying capital at attractive returns, supporting long-term customer growth and creating sustainable value for shareholders.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Mohit to walk through our third quarter results and 2026 outlook.

Mohit Singh

Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us.

Let's review our third quarter results and then discuss our current financial outlook for the balance of 2026. Third quarter net income was $84.5 million, or $0.48 per share, up from $71.2 million, or $0.40 per share in the third quarter of 2025. Excluding transaction-related costs and restructuring charges and adjusting for the associated tax impact, adjusted net income was $84.7 million, or $0.49 per share, up from $73.2 million, or $0.42 per share in the third quarter of 2025.

We delivered adjusted EBITDA of $228.4 million for the third quarter of 2026, up from $220.9 million in the third quarter of 2025. This year-over-year increase was driven by lower SG&A expense, which more than offset lower gross margin dollars in contract operations and AMS and a lower net gain on the sale of non-strategic compression and other assets.

The comparison also includes a $9.9 million sales and use tax audit benefit recorded in contract operations cost of sales in the prior year quarter that did not recur. In the third quarter, total capital expenditure was $117.9 million, including $78.4 million of growth CapEx, $33.3 million of maintenance CapEx and $6.2 million of other CapEx.

Turning to our business segments. Contract operations revenue came in at $331 million in the third quarter, up 1.5% compared to the third quarter of 2025. This year-over-year increase further reflected higher rates, partially offset by active horsepower sales to high-grade our fleet. Contract operations adjusted gross margin percentage was 72% in the third quarter compared with 73% in the year ago quarter.

The year-over-year decline primarily reflected the previously mentioned absence of the $9.9 million net benefit from certain sales and use tax audit settlements recorded in the prior year period, along with higher make-ready costs to return idle compression equipment to service and lube oil cost headwinds. Through disciplined cost management and our continued pursuit of operating efficiencies, we offset those headwinds with a lower lube oil purchase volume, parts expense, employee compensation and benefits expense.

In our aftermarket services segment, third quarter 2026 revenue was $40 million compared to $56 million in the third quarter of 2025. The decline was driven primarily by reduced customer demand for major maintenance activity as some customers continued to defer work and the timing of planned maintenance remained difficult to predict as well as lower parts sales.

Adjusted gross margin percentage was 23% in the quarter, unchanged from 23% in the year ago period, reflecting disciplined execution and our continued focus on higher quality, higher-margin work even in a challenging market.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter in a strong financial position with long-term debt of $2.3 billion as of September 30. Our leverage ratio was 2.5x at quarter end, down from 3.1x a year ago and comfortably below our long-term target range. That improvement reflects the strength of our earnings growth and cash flow profile, giving us financial flexibility as we continue to invest in the fleet and explore strategic opportunities.

On shareholder returns, our Board recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, or $0.92 per share annualized, consistent with our prior quarterly dividend and up approximately 10% from the third quarter of last year. Dividend coverage remained strong at 3.8x in the third quarter, demonstrating the sustainability of our return of capital framework.

The third quarter dividend is payable November 10 to stockholders of record at the close of business on November 3. We ended September with $113.2 million of remaining capacity under our authorization, which gives us meaningful flexibility to be disciplined and opportunistic using buybacks alongside the dividend and growth investments to enhance long-term shareholder returns when market conditions are attractive.

Since the inception of the share repurchase program in April 2023, we have repurchased approximately 4.6 million shares at an average price of $20.91 per share for a total of $96.9 million. Based on our third quarter performance and expectations for the fourth quarter, we are reaffirming our full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $865 million to $885 million.

Strong contract operations performance and disciplined cost management support this outlook, while we continue to make -- to manage customer maintenance deferrals in AMS and near-term lube oil and make-ready cost pressures. We are also reaffirming our 2026 total capital expenditure guidance of $400 million to $445 million, including $250 million to $275 million of growth capital to meet customer demand, $125 million to $135 million of maintenance capital and $25 million to $35 million of other capital, primarily for new vehicles. We expect to fund growth investment through operating cash flow, supplemented by proceeds from non-strategic asset sales as we continue to high-grade our fleet.

With that, I'll turn the call back to Jill to begin the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Eli Jossen with JPMorgan.

Phần hỏi đáp

Elias Jossen

Maybe to start on the bookings commentary, which stood as a bit of a departure from your typical demand framing, can you walk us through the conversion time line from bookings to revenue and how these are trending on pricing and margin relative to the existing contracted fleet?

D. Childers

There's a lot in that question. Let me address the bookings first and then talk about margins second. So on the bookings side, what we've seen overall in this most recent 12- to 18-month period environment has been relatively stable but flat utilization and overall somewhat flat horsepower growth.

And that has, I think, reflected a bit of some of the external factors, including export transport capacity coming out of the Permian, pent-up activity from some of the customers. And what we're seeing with pipelines coming online, LNG projects coming online is our customers starting to ramp up to address what is going to be a period of, we expect, future growth. So that's, I think, some of what we're seeing in the business. It's reflected in our bookings activity, and that's what we wanted to share.

On margin, you can still see a strong pricing environment, close to record revenue per horsepower, dollars per horsepower on the revenue side per month and really strong overall margins and profitability in the business. So it's just a really solid environment to see both growth and of a really good margin, high-return business.

Elias Jossen

Got it. That's helpful. And then, obviously, some tailwinds in SG&A this quarter. Just want to get a sense of where we kind of bridge from 3Q to 4Q within the guide and think about what SG&A might look like sequentially? And then broader, any kind of key items we should think about going into year-end?

Mohit Singh

Yes. Thanks, Eli. This is Mohit. I'll take that. So when you look at SG&A, that decline was primarily related to the stock price-driven changes in the long-term incentive program expense. So, there was a large sequential swing as we went from Q2 to Q3, with the Q3 LTI reflecting a credit rather than an expense as opposed to what happened in Q2. So, absent a significant move in the stock price in Q4, we expect SG&A to increase sequentially and get back to more normal long-term incentive compensation expense range. So the last takeaway I'll leave you with is just Q3 SG&A should not be taken as the ongoing run rate because there were some one-off things that happened there.

Operator

The next question comes from Jim Rollyson with Raymond James.

James Rollyson

Great job on the margin front, especially given the cost headwinds you have. Brad, given all the noise kind of going on around data centers going into elections today and obviously, the recent retreat in your share price, maybe coupled with the capital program you unveiled a quarter ago, just from a high level, as you look out through 2030 and beyond, anything in your mind changed in any material way in the past 90 days?

D. Childers

In short, no. I do think -- we can't address the macro market or all the drivers of the macro market. But as we are engaged as a country in what is going to be just an amazingly large infrastructure build-out, volatility ahead, we should expect. There's going to be more volatility as we are figuring out this investment cycle, working through this investment cycle. And we are on the strong power driving end of the whip a bit when we think about these macro factors. But none of the fundamentals have changed.

The largest uptake for natural gas remains LNG. I outlined those -- that growth profile in my prepared remarks, so I won't repeat it here. And very secondarily, the amount of gas that's going to be required to power data centers is less than 1/3 of that LNG equivalent. So, what we see is strong demand ahead for power, strong demand ahead for natural gas and really strong demand ahead for natural gas compression. If I were to take the over-under, I still believe the market is more likely to be short of compression equipment than long on compression equipment.

James Rollyson

Appreciate that. And as a follow-up, AMS, I think last quarter, you made a mention as it was kind of underwhelming with deferred maintenance that it's a pay me now or pay me later type of business. And obviously, not a material change sequentially as you kind of head into 4Q and maybe 1Q where seasonally, you normally are a little bit softer. Just curious if conversations or if you guys have done any analysis to kind of figure out how long can they kind of defer things until they actually have to come back and pay you later?

D. Childers

Jim, it's a really fair question and really hard. I'll just admit very hard to answer. There's not really analysis that we can do on the customers' equipment to figure that out. But what I'll give you the analogy for is that like refineries and other businesses where pricing can make an impact as to how different operators think about their business, it's a time when the run-to-failure mode in the compression space by some of our customers is preferable so they can maximize their current near-term revenue, knowing that the future oil price is -- especially if we have a cessation of hostilities in the Middle East is likely to return to a lower level. And because of that, they're maximizing now and deferring maintenance. So we don't -- I don't really have a clock or a calendar that is going to give us that insight. But it is what we have experienced historically, and we expect to see that come back again.

Mohit Singh

And Jim, maybe let me build on what Brad said is, I mean, the focus for us just remains on disciplined execution and profitability rather than just chasing volumes. And as you see from the numbers, profitability remains solid and we are well positioned to capture the maintenance activity as and when it returns.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Doug Irwin with Citi.

Douglas Irwin

Maybe another one on margins, just on the OpEx side. Could you just talk a bit more about where you were able to offset some of the higher costs that you've talked about, maybe how durable some of those efforts might be and what that can mean for your gross margin trajectory kind of into 2027 and beyond?

D. Childers

Yes, we can share. We can share some. Number one, on the lube oil side, we were able to moderate and we're working very aggressively to moderate lube oil volumes in the face of these cost pressures. That's one opportunity. Another opportunity that we've exercised is, as you've seen the decline in the AMS business, we've been able to repurpose some of our internal labor to work in our contract operations segment, and that displaces some higher cost external labor that we were bringing in.

Those are 2 of the more substantial opportunities that we've taken advantage of. And I'm just going to say to the operating team listening right now, they just did a great job of responding to the pressures in this environment. It's really just an example of great execution across the board, maximizing every opportunity to offset that lube oil cost headwind that we encountered.

Douglas Irwin

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe a follow-up on horsepower additions. Could you maybe just give an update on where you're trending relative to that 170,000 horsepower target that you talked about back when you gave initial guidance? Feels like maybe fourth quarter is trending to be a pretty strong quarter here in that regard. So, just curious kind of how you're thinking about fleet additions in the context of your annual guide and what might be some pretty strong momentum into next year here?

D. Childers

Doug, you're right. We do expect that the fourth quarter is going to be a strong quarter for deliveries. We've taken delivery of about 125,000 horsepower year-to-date, leaving approximately 50,000 that we'll take delivery of in Q4. Now, we'll start as much as that as this contract start in the quarter, but some of that obviously is going to impact Q1 in addition to Q4. But we are expecting a strong Q4 for equipment deliveries.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Nate Pendleton with Texas Capital.

Nathaniel Pendleton

Congrats on the quarter. Perhaps for Mohit, can you provide an update on how your team is looking at capital allocation here, given the dividend repurchase authorization and growth outlook, acknowledging that you didn't lean into the repurchase this quarter?

Mohit Singh

Yes. Thanks, Nate. You're right. When we think of capital allocation, it's essentially balancing 3 things. One is looking at growth investments that we can reinvest back into acquiring more horsepower, generating more free cash flow and then balancing it in a prudent way with shareholder returns. In our prepared remarks, you heard the Board authorized $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, which annualizes to $0.92 per share for the full year.

Overall, our strategy is to return 25% to 35% of operating cash flow back to the shareholders through a combination of repeatable dividends, but also complemented by opportunistic buybacks. With buybacks, as you very well will appreciate, it's about trying to buy back stocks when the market conditions are favorable, and then we are also in an open window. It just did not happen in Q3.

And as a result, we did not do much buybacks. But if you look at our overall track record since the inception of the program, we have bought about 4.6 million shares at $20.91 per share. We remain overall very committed to shareholder returns. And as and when the conditions are right, you'll see us stand and be ready to buy back when the stock represents an attractive buyback opportunity.

Nathaniel Pendleton

Great. And perhaps as my follow-up, I wanted to circle back to the bookings. Can you talk about if those bookings were primarily with existing customers? Or are there any noteworthy wins within those deals?

D. Childers

Given the breadth of our customer base, it's almost always going to be the case that they are primarily with existing customers. And so without going down the list of customers live, I believe that, that's still going to be the right assumption that it's predominantly with our existing customer base.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Steve Ferazani with Sidoti.

Michael Mathison

This is Michael Mathison sitting in for Steve. I want to come back to the question of bookings. Do you see demand growth growing outside the Permian? Or is all the growth still concentrated in the Permian? Do you see growth in other basins is, I guess, what I'm asking?

D. Childers

We do see growth outside the Permian. I mean, the Permian is going to remain the attractor of CapEx for the industry for a while. It's just -- it's a monster basin in size, and it's the most cost-effective basin from a production perspective on cost. But fortunately, we saw more growth outside the Permian than we saw in the Permian, including the Rockies, which was our largest growth area in the quarter. But we also saw incremental growth in the Haynesville and in the Mid-Continent area. So right now, the Permian accounted for between 30% to 40% of the growth we saw in the quarter, more growth outside the Permian in this period.

Michael Mathison

Excellent. That's very helpful. Just a follow-up question on bookings. Your bookings are up 13% year-to-date, and you're effectively running at maximum utilization. Do you see customers starting to book further into the future as a result to sort of guarantee access to equipment?

D. Childers

Yes and no. We see a mix of customers that are very driven to secure equipment well in advance, and it's balanced by other customers that don't. So it's -- I can't generalize across the board to say that all the customers are actually behaving that way, but we do see a mix of some that are very good planners and others that are candidly less planful and depending upon us to be there for them when they place their orders.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Elvira Scotto with RBC Capital Markets.

Elvira Scotto

You highlighted that one of the cost headwinds was make-ready costs as you kind of bring idle capacity kind of back online. Where are you in that process? And where can we see those cost headwinds subside?

D. Childers

At 94% utilization, those costs are -- they spike up a bit this year because we have to have a period of time where we're putting more of our existing fleet back to work than the newbuild. But they will moderate a bit in the future. I'm going to say, however, that among the dollars I like investing the most is dollars to put that equipment back to work. It just shows the strength of this business continues to improve our overall return on invested capital and returns to our investors.

Mohit Singh

The one thing I'll add to what Brad said, Elvira, is I mean, if you look at our overall operating expense per horsepower trend on a quarterly basis, it trended down. So, despite having higher lube oil headwinds and higher make-ready expense through prudent management of exposure and through efficient efforts on net labor expenditure, overall, when you roll it up, we were able to trend it down. So, a lot of credit goes to our teams for working towards that very prudently.

Elvira Scotto

That's helpful. And then my next question is, I mean, I know you talked about margins and what's driving margins. But I'm curious, you've made investments in technology initiatives. You talk about telemetry, potentially AI. How much of that is playing into margin improvement? And where are we sort of in that process there in terms of like -- I don't know if you want to talk in like what inning are we in, in realizing benefits from these initiatives that you've undertaken over the years?

D. Childers

Great question and a fun question to be able to address, Elvira. Thank you. When we look at the overall gross margin and the improvement you've seen consistently on a year-over-year basis now for several years, it reflects a few dynamics, one of which you cited and I'm going to come back to. Fundamentally, it reflects the transformation of our fleet to focus on large horsepower and electric motor drive, 2 significant drivers in our overall profitability. But the technology investments we've made are absolutely a part of this continuous improvement that we're seeing in our operations, in our customer service and in our gross margin performance.

We do expect to continue to invest in technology. We have deployed both automation. We've deployed telemetry. We're deploying artificial intelligence in various components of our field organization today. And I'd say that we are probably still in the very early innings of that deployment, which is going to be really beneficial for our customers and for the service quality we offer. And I think it's going to continue to put us in the position of driving improvement in gross margin. And it should have 2 impacts.

One, the more service we can offer our customers, the more we can help them maintain their production and total downtime, I believe the larger revenue share we can earn. And then secondly, it drives great efficiencies for us internally. So for both of those reasons, I remain optimistic as I have been now for years that we can continue to drive improving profitability in this business as we improve the overall uptime and throughput and gas compression activities for our customers.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Joshua Jayne with Daniel Energy Partners.

Joshua Jayne

First one is just on the Caterpillar lead times. You cited 180 weeks, and it sounds like it's getting better, not worse. Maybe if you could just discuss how things are unfolding and maybe how your scale and relationship might be helping with that and just what you're seeing and hearing from them would be helpful to start.

D. Childers

Lead times have come down. Caterpillar has communicated that -- number one, I never speak for Caterpillar, but I'll say they've invested in improving their throughput and addressing this high demand market. And candidly, they're addressing it really well. We've been in the position to be able to obtain equipment that we need, though we have ordered equipment in advance.

Lead times are out there, but Caterpillar is making deliveries and we're receiving them. We do think that the high-demand market that we're in, I think lead times are going to remain extended. But if you place orders and plan your business prudently, you can get equipment, and that's the position that we are in.

Joshua Jayne

And my second one. You unpacked a little bit on -- in answering your last question, but I just wanted to follow up on the commentary about investing in automation, AI, et cetera. Could you maybe discuss what percentage of the fleet do you think is upgradable to some of those components? And just how you're thinking about that over the next couple of years and how the response is and like the economics that make sense for the customers would be just helpful to go into a little bit more detail, and then I'll turn it back.

D. Childers

Starting off with the fleet, 100% of our fleet is connected with telemetry that brings us lots of data on a daily basis that comes in, in a more centralized system into a large data engine that allows us to sort through, see the activity, prioritize the activity and respond to the activity. So it's -- the entire fleet is connected, communicating and giving us good data and better information around which to assess, diagnose, troubleshoot and respond to our customers.

Similarly, we have good automation around how we manage our parts business to part up both our locations and our techs before they hit location. And then we also have good communication technology for our mechanics to access the information regarding that unit. And so all of that is working together. It's not just about kind of what the individual units can do. It's what the overall process and systems that we've invested in can accomplish and do. So it's a high percentage.

What we're seeing, however, is just the opportunity to continue to implement and get coordination in the field with that data so that we are constantly smarter because the unit is making it smarter and the mechanic has access to the information parts that the mechanic needs to respond more timely and more fully to address customer downtime. So it's not just the units, it's the entire system, and it's working actually really well.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Nick Amicucci with Evercore.

Nicholas Amicucci

Just wanted to kind of touch upon if we could to -- just if we could distinguish kind of the direct awards from the broader market. So, you guys have kind of cited LNG exports and power generation as the long-term natural gas demand drivers. Just kind of thinking through like where are those awards kind of going to be identifiable for you guys? Like is it going to be gathering, processing, transmission on that side of the house, if you could just kind of parse that out?

D. Childers

Nick, I want to make sure I understand the question. You're wanting to get a take on what part of the demand impacts us directly? Is it gathering? Is it gas lift? Is it transportation on larger pipelines? Am I understanding your question?

Nicholas Amicucci

Yes.

D. Childers

Okay. So yes, look, our business really comes into 2 primary segments. One is gathering in the oilfield with centralized gathering systems that's dominated by large horsepower of the equipment that we're primarily investing in, and that includes both gas drive as well as electric motor drive.

And then the second part of our business, like 35% to -- between 35% and 40% of our business is directly on gas lift to assist with oil production. So, those are the 2 segments where we see the awards very directly and the activity with our customers very directly that are going to continue to support growth in our business.

Nicholas Amicucci

Perfect. That makes sense. And then if I could, just like given you guys are somewhat more of the picks-and-shovels type of play here, just as we think about kind of the bookings and the strong bookings within this quarter, just -- if we wanted to kind of get the -- get an idea of just kind of the visibility into 2027 and just kind of how those bookings then translate into revenue and kind of the margin accretion behind it. So, basically just the timing from bookings to revenue.

D. Childers

Well, we haven't guided 2027. We're not yet guiding 2027. We will do that in our fourth quarter call. But when you look ahead at the year and the CapEx spend that we've projected, the primary variables you'll want to think about are going to be our utilization and then the incremental horsepower that gets added because of the investment in newbuild horsepower. And both of those are going to indicate, I think, the opportunity for us to grow and to have a very strong delivery of horsepower growth in 2027.

As far as the timing of the cycle, typically between booking -- I'm sorry, let me back up and say that right now, it's almost impossible to gauge because of the extended lead times that we have for equipment. Normally speaking, if we had a 52-week lead time, the timing from booking to revenue would be something like instead of 1 year, it would be a year and a quarter. As soon as we receive equipment, it usually goes to work very promptly. It's a very capital-efficient business in that regard. But with lead times out through 2029, the time frame for bookings -- that booking cycle to first revenue is way extended.

Operator

There are no more questions. And so now I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Childers for final remarks.

D. Childers

Thank you for joining us today, everyone, and for your continued interest in Archrock. We look forward to updating you following our next quarter's results.

Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.