Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của CNA Financial (CNA): Chi phí LTC đè nặng lên lợi nhuận cốt lõi

Điểm tin chính

• Lợi nhuận cốt lõi đạt 203 triệu USD, giảm so với mức 409 triệu USD của cùng kỳ năm ngoái, bao gồm tác động bất lợi sau thuế 137 triệu USD từ đợt đánh giá lại giả định dự phòng chăm sóc dài hạn hàng năm.
• Hoạt động bảo hiểm tài sản và thiệt hại (P&C) tạo ra 397 triệu USD lợi nhuận cốt lõi. Tỷ lệ kết hợp mảng P&C đạt 97,0%, bao gồm 2,8 điểm phần trăm tổn thất do thiên tai, trong khi tỷ lệ kết hợp cơ bản tăng lên 94,2% từ mức 91,3%.
• Phí bảo hiểm thuần đã viết mảng P&C tăng 3%. Thay đổi phí bảo hiểm tái tục đạt 3%, và thay đổi mức phí cải thiện lên 2% so với mức không đổi ở quý trước.
• Thu nhập đầu tư thuần đạt 635 triệu USD, so với 638 triệu USD của cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Thu nhập từ đầu tư thu nhập cố định và các khoản đầu tư khác tăng 4% lên 587 triệu USD.
• Dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh đạt 654 triệu USD. Giá trị tài sản ròng trên mỗi cổ phiếu không bao gồm thu nhập toàn diện tích lũy khác là 46,11 USD, tăng 5% so với cuối năm 2025 sau khi điều chỉnh cổ tức.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến thu nhập quý 4 từ đầu tư thu nhập cố định và các khoản đầu tư khác đạt khoảng 600 triệu USD và thu nhập cả năm đạt hơn 2,3 tỷ USD.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Kết quả Kinh doanh và Hoạt động

Mảng thương mại

Tỷ lệ kết hợp của mảng thương mại tăng lên 99,7% từ mức 92,7%. Tổn thất do thiên tai đóng góp 4,8 điểm phần trăm, tương đương 70 triệu USD, trong khi phát triển kỳ trước bất lợi thêm vào 2,4 điểm phần trăm, tương đương 35 triệu USD, chủ yếu từ việc tăng cường dự phòng bồi thường thiệt hại vượt mức.

Tỷ lệ kết hợp cơ bản là 92,5%, so với 90,0% của cùng kỳ năm trước. Phí bảo hiểm thuần đã viết và hợp đồng mới đều tăng 2%, trong khi tỷ lệ duy trì hợp đồng đạt 83%. Thay đổi mức phí cải thiện lên 2%, với mức tăng từ 7-9% ở các nhóm nghiệp vụ chịu ảnh hưởng nhiều nhất bởi lạm phát xã hội.

CNA đã giảm quy mô rủi ro ở những nơi giá phí và các điều khoản không đủ đáp ứng. Phí bảo hiểm gốc đã viết mảng tài sản khách hàng lớn toàn quốc giảm 12%, bao gồm mức giảm 32% ở hợp đồng mới.

Mảng chuyên biệt

Tỷ lệ kết hợp của mảng chuyên biệt đạt 96,8%, và tỷ lệ kết hợp cơ bản tăng lên 96,7% từ mức 93,3%. Phí bảo hiểm thuần đã viết tăng 4%, trong khi hợp đồng mới tăng 5% lên 137 triệu USD.

Thay đổi phí bảo hiểm tái tục là 5%, và thay đổi mức phí là 4%. Mức phí bảo hiểm y tế duy trì ở mức tăng mạnh 8%, trong khi thay đổi mức phí trách nhiệm tài chính và quản trị cải thiện lên 2%.

Mảng quốc tế

Tỷ lệ kết hợp của mảng quốc tế cải thiện lên 86,1% từ mức 91,8%, nhờ hưởng lợi từ 10,1 điểm phần trăm, tương đương 35 triệu USD, do phát triển kỳ trước thuận lợi. Tỷ lệ kết hợp cơ bản của mảng này tăng lên 94,1% từ mức 91,2%.

Phí bảo hiểm thuần đã viết tăng 4%, hoặc 6% nếu không tính biến động tỷ giá. Tỷ lệ duy trì hợp đồng đạt 87%, nhưng mức phí giảm 4% và thay đổi giá tái tục giảm 2% trong bối cảnh thị trường cạnh tranh gay gắt.

Chăm sóc dài hạn

Mảng Nhân thọ & Nhóm ghi nhận khoản lỗ cốt lõi 171 triệu USD, so với khoản lỗ 22 triệu USD của cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Đợt đánh giá LTC hàng năm đã làm tăng dự phòng GAAP thêm 173 triệu USD, chủ yếu do tác động 145 triệu USD từ giả định lạm phát chi phí chăm sóc trong ngắn hạn cao hơn và tác động 75 triệu USD từ các giả định điều chỉnh về tỷ lệ bệnh tật. Lợi ích 50 triệu USD từ giả định mức phí bảo hiểm đã bù đắp một phần cho những thay đổi đó.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết thu nhập đầu tư dự kiến cao hơn trong tương lai từ các hoạt động cơ cấu danh mục gần như bù đắp hoàn toàn các thay đổi giả định dự phòng bất lợi xét trên khía cạnh kinh tế, mặc dù lợi ích này sẽ được ghi nhận dần theo thời gian theo chuẩn mực GAAP. CNA cũng tái khẳng định biên dự phòng theo luật định 1,3 tỷ USD cho khối LTC.

Đầu tư và Vốn

Thu nhập cố định và các khoản đầu tư khác tạo ra 587 triệu USD, tăng 4% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Tỷ suất lợi nhuận hiệu dụng từ danh mục thu nhập cố định hợp nhất tăng lên 5,0% từ mức 4,8% của một năm trước đó.

CNA đã thực hiện các giao dịch kéo dài kỳ hạn trị giá hơn 1,3 tỷ USD tính đến ngày 30 tháng 9, hoán đổi các trái phiếu xếp hạng BBB+ có kỳ hạn ngắn hơn với lợi suất 5,5% sang các trái phiếu xếp hạng A có kỳ hạn dài hơn với lợi suất 6,2%, với khoản lỗ đã thực hiện không đáng kể.

Vốn chủ sở hữu của cổ đông không bao gồm AOCI là 12,5 tỷ USD. Vốn luật định và thặng dư đạt tổng cộng 11,2 tỷ USD, và tỷ lệ nợ trên tổng vốn không bao gồm AOCI là 19,2%.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến thu nhập quý 4 từ đầu tư thu nhập cố định và các khoản đầu tư khác đạt khoảng 600 triệu USD, dựa trên môi trường lãi suất hiện tại.
• Thu nhập cả năm 2026 từ đầu tư thu nhập cố định và các khoản đầu tư khác dự kiến vượt 2,3 tỷ USD.
• CNA tiếp tục coi tỷ lệ chi phí mảng P&C khoảng 30% là mức vận hành (run rate) hợp lý cho năm 2026.
• Ban lãnh đạo có kế hoạch duy trì kỷ luật nghiệp vụ bảo hiểm trong Quý 4/2026 và năm 2027, theo đuổi tăng trưởng ở những mảng có lợi nhuận đã điều chỉnh theo rủi ro phù hợp và thu hẹp kinh doanh ở những nơi định giá hoặc các điều khoản không đủ đáp ứng.

Rủi ro và Các lĩnh vực trọng tâm

• Lạm phát xã hội tiếp tục ảnh hưởng đến kết quả bồi thường trách nhiệm vượt mức và kéo dài chu kỳ phát triển bồi thường, góp phần dẫn đến việc tăng cường dự phòng cho các năm xảy ra tổn thất gần đây sau đại dịch.
• Áp lực về mức phí vẫn rõ rệt ở mảng tài sản khách hàng lớn toàn quốc, bảo hiểm bồi thường cho người lao động và một số nghiệp vụ quốc tế.
• Tổn thất do thiên tai đạt tổng cộng 78 triệu USD và chủ yếu do các đợt bão nghiêm trọng gây ra.
• Lãi suất cao hơn đã làm tăng các khoản lỗ chưa thực hiện từ danh mục thu nhập cố định thuộc AOCI, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo cho biết các khoản lỗ này tập trung ở các chứng khoán có xếp hạng đầu tư và không phản ánh sự suy giảm chất lượng tín dụng.
• Kết quả mảng LTC vẫn nhạy cảm với lạm phát chi phí chăm sóc, tỷ lệ bệnh tật, tỷ lệ duy trì hợp đồng và việc triển khai thành công các đợt điều chỉnh tăng phí bảo hiểm đã được phê duyệt.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Douglas Worman

[ The transcript was presubmitted by CNA Financial Corporation. No live call was conducted for the Q3 2026 earnings call. ]

In the third quarter, we achieved disciplined growth and high-quality underwriting results underpinned by prudent loss ratio selections and strong execution of our underwriting strategies to optimize our portfolios in the current marketplace. We maintained the higher underlying loss ratio we established in the first half of 2026, and our expense ratio was below 30% even as we continue to substantially invest in talent, technology and artificial intelligence (AI) to augment the efficiency and effectiveness of our operation.

Core income was $203 million in the third quarter. Core income includes an unfavorable after-tax impact of $137 million from our annual Life & Group long-term care (LTC) reserve assumption review. However, the unfavorable reserve assumption updates are almost entirely offset by a favorable economic impact from recent investment portfolio actions, the anticipated benefit of which is not reflected in current period earnings under GAAP accounting. We had another quarter of strong investment income at $635 million, robust cash flow from operations of $654 million and 5% year-to-date growth in book value per share excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (AOCI) and the impact of dividends. LTC and investments will be detailed in Scott's remarks.

The P&C all-in combined ratio was 97.0% in the quarter, including 2.8 points, or $78 million, of catastrophe impacts. Catastrophes were primarily driven by severe storm activity. Prior period development had no impact on the combined ratio in aggregate as additional reserve strengthening in excess casualty in recent accident years was balanced by favorable reserve changes in other classes of business. The P&C underlying combined ratio was 94.2% compared to 91.3% in the prior year quarter. The expense ratio was 29.7%, consistent with the first half of the year. The P&C underlying loss ratio was 64.1%, consistent with the prudent assumptions set earlier in the year, and up 2.2 points compared to the prior year quarter. Long run

loss cost trend assumptions were unchanged in the quarter.

Net written premium growth was 3% and new business was up 1%. P&C renewal premium change was 3% and rate change improved to 2%, compared to last quarter when rate change was flat. Rate remained under pressure in national accounts property, workers' compensation and many areas of our International segment, but the rate decline was modestly mitigated compared to last quarter. Notably, as we indicated last quarter, when we cannot achieve appropriate pricing along with terms and conditions we will walk away and lean into areas where we believe we can achieve a more appropriate return. As an example, national accounts property gross written premium was down 12% in the quarter, with new business down 32%.

Turning to each of the three P&C operating segments, in Commercial, the all-in combined ratio was 99.7% compared to 92.7% in the prior year quarter. Catastrophe impacts were $70 million, or 4.8 points of the combined ratio, compared with just 2.7 points in a very benign quarter last year. Prior period development added 2.4 points to the combined ratio, or $35 million. This was primarily from reserve strengthening in excess casualty, partially offset by favorability in workers' compensation and property.

The reserve strengthening in excess casualty is primarily from recent post-pandemic accident years. The excess casualty risk adjusted return continues to be accretive to the overall portfolio; however, we have continued to see the impacts of social inflation influence the trajectory of claim outcomes and lengthen development patterns. We have quickly reacted to elevated activity compared to prior expectations in our reserve assumptions across our different excess casualty portfolios.

The underlying combined ratio was 92.5% compared to 90.0% in the prior year quarter. The underlying loss ratio was 65.8%, consistent with the first half of the year, and up 2.4 points compared to the prior year quarter, as we maintain the philosophy addressed in our remarks for the first quarter. The expense ratio improved to 26.2% in the quarter, marking the fifth consecutive quarter below 27%.

In Commercial, net written premium grew 2% and new business also grew 2% to $332 million. Retention in the quarter was 83% with significant variation by business unit and class, similar to last quarter. While we continue to see opportunities in the portfolio, there are areas across many portions of the portfolio where we chose to walk away given current market conditions where pricing, terms and conditions are not appropriate. Commercial segment rate change increased to 2% in the quarter. Rate was high single-digit in classes most impacted by social inflation.

For Specialty, the all-in combined ratio was 96.8% and the underlying combined ratio was 96.7% compared to 93.3% in the prior year quarter. There was no prior period development in the aggregate. The underlying loss ratio was 62.8%, consistent with the first half of the year, and up 2.2 points compared to the prior year quarter for the reasons we discussed previously. The expense ratio of 33.6% was in line with the first half of the year.

In Specialty, net written premium grew 4% in the quarter and new business was up 5% to $137 million. Retention overall was 83%. Renewal premium change was 5% and rate change was 4% in the quarter. Rate remained strong at 8% in our healthcare business. In our affinity business, rate was up to 4% and retention was 80%, as we executed underwriting actions on portions of our professional errors and omissions programs. Financial and management liability lines rate change improved to 2%.For International, the all-in combined ratio was 86.1% compared to 91.8% in the prior year quarter. Catastrophe losses were 2.1 points compared to 0.6 points in the prior quarter. Prior period development was favorable by 10.1 points in the quarter, or $35 million, compared to no prior period development in the aggregate in the prior year quarter. Favorable development was concentrated in the property, professional liability and management liability classes of business. The underlying combined ratio was 94.1%, up from 91.2% in the prior year quarter. The underlying loss ratio was 59.8%, consistent with the first half of 2026 and up from 58.5% in the prior year quarter. The expense ratio was 34.3%.

International net written premium increased 4% in the quarter, or 6% excluding currency fluctuations. New business declined by $8 million to $86 million in the quarter. Retention remained strong at 87% as we hold onto profitable business in this segment. Rates were down 4% in the quarter, and renewal price change was down 2%. The environment in which our international unit operates continues to be highly competitive. Despite the competitive environment and some of the volatility it can cause, it remains an important contributor to our overall operation, and we continue to see tremendous potential there going forward.

Scott Lindquist

CNA's third quarter core income was $203 million compared with $409 million in the prior year quarter, resulting in a trailing twelve-month core return on equity of 8.6%. The decrease in core income reflects a $137 million unfavorable after-tax impact from our annual LTC reserve assumption updates. However, as detailed later in the Life & Group remarks, the unfavorable reserve assumption updates are almost entirely offset by a favorable economic impact from recent investment portfolio actions. Under GAAP accounting, the anticipated benefits of these portfolio actions are not immediately reflected in earnings, but rather are recognized through investment income over time.

Excluding the LTC assumption review impact, the quarter continued to reflect stable underlying underwriting performance and strong investment results.

Our P&C expense ratio was 29.7% for the third quarter and 29.9% year to date in 2026. Despite continued investments in talent, technology and AI capabilities, our expense ratio has remained below 30% in five of the last six quarters. We continue to believe an expense ratio around 30% represents a reasonable run-rate for 2026.

The P&C net prior period development impact on the combined ratio was flat in the current quarter. Favorable development in workers' compensation, property, surety and International was offset by unfavorable development in excess casualty, and professional and management liability. The P&C paid-to-incurred ratio was 74% for the quarter and 76% year to date in 2026. Paid losses can vary from quarter-to-quarter based on claim settlement activity and other factors.

Our Corporate segment produced a core loss of $23 million compared with a core loss of $25 million in the prior year quarter, which includes interest expense on our corporate debt and certain other expenses.

Consistent with our historical practice, we intend to review our asbestos and environment pollution reserves during the fourth quarter.

Turning back to the Life & Group segment, we recorded a core loss of $171 million for the quarter compared with a core loss of $22 million in the prior year quarter. The current quarter results include a $137 million after-tax charge from our annual reserve assumption review. As in prior years, we performed a comprehensive review of all the assumptions underlying our LTC reserves, which include cost of care inflation, morbidity, persistency and premium rate actions, using a valuation date of June 30, 2026. As detailed on slide 15 of the earnings presentation, the assumption updates resulted in a $173 million increase in GAAP reserves.

Notably for this year's assumption updates, we strengthened our near-term cost of care inflation assumptions, increasing the GAAP reserve by $145 million, and we revised morbidity assumptions to reflect actual experience on richer benefit policies, increasing the GAAP reserve by $75 million. Partially offsetting was a $50 million favorable impact from our premium rate assumptions, reflecting actual rate achievement above expectations from approvals across a number of states.

As part of the annual reserve assumption review, we also evaluate the supporting investment portfolio and related future cash flows which consider any changes in portfolio characteristics as well as updated near term interest rate expectations. As of the June 30, 2026 evaluation date, we estimate an increase in future investment income almost entirely offsetting the unfavorable reserve assumption changes. This is driven by

the impact of portfolio actions taken in the second quarter of 2026 to incrementally increase fixed income portfolio duration with higher quality, higher yielding securities through a series of duration extension trades. The fixed income duration extension trading program continued into the third quarter with over $1.3 billion of trades executed this year through September 30th, exchanging shorter duration BBB+ rated bonds at 5.5%

yield for longer-duration, A rated bonds yielding 6.2%, with a negligible realized loss on these trades. As I noted earlier, under GAAP accounting, the economic benefits of these recent portfolio actions are not immediately reflected through earnings, but rather are recognized through investment income over time.Importantly, the annual review also reaffirmed our view that the LTC business maintains a substantial statutory reserve margin of $1.3 billion.

In sum, our third quarter LTC reserve assumption updates and accompanying LTC investment portfolio review further solidifies our belief that the block remains appropriately reserved and the overall economics of the block remain stable.

In addition to the investment portfolio actions just noted, we continue to make meaningful progress in actively managing and reducing the risk of our LTC business through policy inforce actions. During 2026, we received thirty rate increase approvals averaging 20% and have effectively doubled average premium rates since original pricing. Our policy buyout program has completed approximately 12,000 buyouts through roughly $400 million of payments since 2020. As a result of these actions as well as through natural run-off, policy counts have declined by 50% since 2015, and we further expect another 40% decrease over the next decade.

Finally, we believe our locked-in GAAP basis LTC reserves have reached a plateau level. The larger Individual LTC block is mature with an average attained age of 83 and is in the latter half of its reserve run-off. The younger Group LTC block, which features less risky policy benefit features and was more appropriately priced, will have reserves plateau at levels less than half that of Individual LTC. From where we are as to the maturity of the LTC block and underlying characteristics, we currently view the financial risk of the block as contained and expect it to continue to decline over the remaining run-off.

Turning to investment results, net investment income was $635 million in the third quarter compared with $638 million in the prior year quarter.

Fixed income and other investments generated $587 million of income, up 4% from the prior year quarter. Our A-rated fixed income portfolio continues to provide consistent contributions to core income, benefiting from a growing asset base and favorable reinvestment rates. The effective income yield of our consolidated fixed income portfolio was 5.0% in the third quarter, up from 4.9% in the second quarter and 4.8% in the prior year quarter. We continue to be able to reinvest at rates above our P&C portfolio effective income yield of 4.6% and our Life & Group portfolio effective income yield of 5.8%.

Looking ahead, based on the current interest rate environment, we expect income from fixed income and other investments to be approximately $600 million in the fourth quarter. For the full year, we expect income from fixed income and other investments to be over $2.3 billion.

Our limited partnership and common stock portfolios returned a $48 million gain, or 1.5%, in the quarter compared with a $71 million gain, or 2.5%, in the prior year quarter. The lower return was primarily driven by our hedge fund portfolio, which produced a loss in the current quarter following particularly strong results in the second quarter of 2026. Our private equity portfolio reported steady returns this quarter. As a reminder,

private equity funds, which comprise the majority of our limited partnership portfolio, generally report on a quarter lag.

At quarter-end, our balance sheet remained very strong. Stockholders' equity excluding AOCI was $12.5 billion, or $46.11 per share, a 5% increase from year-end 2025 adjusting for dividends. Including AOCI, stockholders' equity was $10.2 billion, or $37.80 per share, which was impacted by a decrease in AOCI reflecting the effect of higher interest rates on unrealized losses in our fixed income portfolio. These unrealized losses are not indicative of credit deterioration and remain concentrated in investment-grade securities. Statutory capital and surplus in the combined Continental Casualty Companies was $11.2 billion, and our debt-to-capital ratio excluding AOCI was 19.2%.

Operating cash flow was $654 million for the quarter and $1,696 million for the first nine months of 2026. Cash flows continue to reflect higher paid losses for the year aligned with portfolio growth, partially offset by strong premium collections.

The effective tax rate on core income was 17.5% for the third quarter, reflecting a favorable provision-toreturn adjustment primarily related to foreign subsidiary taxes. Excluding this item, the effective tax rate was approximately 21.2%, generally consistent with our expectations for the full year.

Finally, we are pleased to announce our regular quarterly dividend of $0.48 per share, payable on December 3, 2026 to stockholders of record on November 16, 2026.

Douglas Worman

We continue to be pleased by the operating fundamentals of our P&C businesses while maintaining a prudent posture in reserves. Our P&C operation produced core income of $397 million. Our expense ratio has remained below 30% in each quarter this year, as we continue to improve efficiency while reinvesting those gains in AI, technology and talent across the value chain to strengthen our capabilities and position us for long-term growth. We continue to be optimistic based on the results we are broadly seeing play out from our AI initiatives. These unique solutions have allowed us to continue to be more effective across our specialized operations.

In our run-off Life & Group segment, the results of the annual LTC reserve assumptions review reinforced our view that the block is appropriately reserved and its financial risk is contained.

Looking forward, we remain focused on driving disciplined execution in our portfolio to optimize our book given the varying current market conditions. That discipline will not change in the fourth quarter of the year and as we enter 2027 - we will continue to focus on growing in areas where we can achieve appropriate risk adjusted returns and be willing to walk away when we cannot.