Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của Oil States (OIS): Giá trị đơn hàng chờ thực hiện đạt 482 triệu USD

Điểm tin chính

• Oil States International báo cáo doanh thu quý 3/2026 đạt 170 triệu USD và EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 20 triệu USD, lần lượt tăng 8% và 6% so với quý trước.
• Lợi nhuận ròng điều chỉnh đạt 8 triệu USD, tương đương 0,15 USD/cổ phiếu, không bao gồm các chi phí chuyển giao nhân sự cấp cao, đóng cửa cơ sở và các khoản chi phí khác. Lợi nhuận ròng báo cáo đạt 3 triệu USD, tương đương 0,05 USD/cổ phiếu.
• Khối lượng đơn hàng tồn đọng (backlog) của mảng Sản phẩm Ngoài khơi/Chế tạo đạt 482 triệu USD, mức cao nhất trong gần 12 năm qua, tăng 7% so với quý trước và 21% so với cùng kỳ năm trước.
• Hoạt động ngoài khơi và quốc tế tạo ra 72% doanh thu hợp nhất trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026, so với khoảng 50% vào năm 2023.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự báo doanh thu quý 4/2026 đạt khoảng 172 triệu - 184 triệu USD và EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 20 triệu - 23 triệu USD.
• Hội đồng quản trị đã thông qua chương trình mua lại cổ phiếu mới trị giá 50 triệu USD cho đến tháng 10/2028, trong khi ban lãnh đạo tiếp tục đánh giá các thương vụ thâu tóm có chọn lọc và các khoản đầu tư tự thân.

Dữ liệu tài chính quan trọng

Kết quả Kinh doanh và Hoạt động

Sản phẩm Ngoài khơi/Chế tạo tiếp tục là mảng lớn nhất. Giá trị đơn hàng nhận được trong quý 3 đạt tổng cộng 135 triệu USD, nâng lượng đơn hàng tồn đọng lên mức cao nhất trong gần 12 năm. Trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026, mảng này ghi nhận 333 triệu USD giá trị đơn hàng nhận được, với gần 90% gắn liền với các sản phẩm năng lượng ngoài khơi. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết điều này giúp định hình rõ ràng hơn cho năm 2027, đặc biệt là đối với hoạt động ở vùng nước sâu.

Lượng đơn hàng tồn đọng bao gồm một phần lớn hợp đồng quân sự nhiều năm. Các sản phẩm quân sự chiếm khoảng 46% lượng đơn hàng tồn đọng hiện tại, làm giảm tỷ lệ chuyển đổi dự kiến trong 12 tháng xuống còn 50%-55% so với mức 65%-70% trong lịch sử. Ban lãnh đạo khẳng định tốc độ chuyển đổi chậm hơn này không làm giảm biên lợi nhuận và thậm chí có thể gia tăng giá trị.

Mảng Dịch vụ Hoàn thiện và Sản xuất duy trì biên EBITDA điều chỉnh 26% bất chấp hoạt động của khách hàng trên đất liền tại Mỹ suy yếu. Mảng kinh doanh này hiện tập trung nhiều hơn vào các công cụ vươn xa độc quyền, dịch vụ ở Vịnh America và một số thị trường quốc tế được chọn lọc.

Mảng Công nghệ Đáy giếng được hưởng lợi từ doanh số bán các sản phẩm hoàn thiện và bắn mở vỉa mạnh mẽ hơn ở tất cả các danh mục chính. Tuy nhiên, chi phí tăng cao đối với vonfram, bột thuốc nổ và đồng tiếp tục gây áp lực lên kết quả kinh doanh.

Oil States cũng ghi nhận thêm một dự án cho thuê thiết bị khoan kiểm soát áp suất (MPD) trong quý và kỳ vọng nhận được đơn đặt hàng bán hệ thống trong quý 4. Ban lãnh đạo đã đưa khoảng 35 triệu - 40 triệu USD doanh thu MPD hàng năm vào mô hình dự báo tương lai, với biên lợi nhuận được mô tả là rất tốt.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Đối với quý 4/2026, ban lãnh đạo dự báo:

• Doanh thu đạt 172 triệu - 184 triệu USD.
• EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 20 triệu - 23 triệu USD.
• Dòng tiền tự do đạt khoảng 15 triệu - 25 triệu USD.

Ban lãnh đạo tiếp tục đặt mục tiêu biên EBITDA điều chỉnh tổng thể khoảng 20% cho mảng Sản phẩm Ngoài khơi/Chế tạo. Công ty kỳ vọng tăng trưởng doanh thu năm 2027 về cơ bản sẽ phù hợp với các ước tính hiện tại của thị trường, trong đó phần lớn sự tăng trưởng đến từ hoạt động ngoài khơi và quốc tế. Công ty cũng dự kiến chi tiêu trên đất liền tại Mỹ và hoạt động nứt nẻ thủy lực sẽ tăng nhẹ, mặc dù dự báo chi tiết cho năm 2027 dự kiến sẽ được đưa ra trong cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 4.

Rủi ro và Các yếu tố Cần theo dõi

Lịch trình của khách hàng, tiến độ dự án, điều kiện địa chính trị và thời điểm trao hợp đồng có thể tạo ra sự biến động qua từng quý.

Vốn lưu động vẫn là một yếu tố quan trọng cần cân nhắc đối với dòng tiền. Oil States đã đầu tư 38 triệu USD vào hàng tồn kho trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026, bao gồm các khoản mua sắm nhằm hỗ trợ lượng đơn hàng tồn đọng và nhu cầu vật tư tiêu hao đáy giếng. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng một lượng vốn lưu động sẽ được giải phóng trong quý 4 nhưng cảnh báo rằng việc thu hồi nợ từ khách hàng thường chậm lại vào cuối năm.

Nguồn cung nguyên liệu thô và lạm phát vẫn là những thách thức đối với mảng Công nghệ Đáy giếng, đặc biệt là đối với bột thuốc nổ, vonfram và đồng. Ban lãnh đạo dự báo những áp lực này sẽ tiếp tục kéo dài trong quý 4 trước khi bắt đầu hạ nhiệt vào quý 1 và quý 2 năm 2027 khi nguồn cung bột thuốc nổ được cải thiện.

Những điểm chính trong phần Hỏi & Đáp với Chuyên gia phân tích

• Nhu cầu ngoài khơi: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết động lực nhận đơn hàng ngoài khơi và nước sâu vẫn tích cực, được hỗ trợ bởi chi tiêu EPCI nhiều năm dự kiến. Công ty không đưa ra dự báo lượng đơn hàng nhận được cho năm 2027.
• Cơ hội từ MPD: Khách hàng ngày càng yêu cầu hoặc đòi hỏi tàu khoan phải sẵn sàng trang bị MPD. Oil States phục vụ thị trường này thông qua các khớp ống đứng tích hợp cùng cả hệ thống cho thuê và bán.
• Định giá: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ chưa có sự nhượng bộ đáng kể nào về giá đối với các đơn hàng thiết bị vốn đang đấu thầu, báo giá hoặc đã ký kết.
• Phân bổ vốn: Khung hoạt động của công ty tập trung vào chi tiêu vốn tự thân và R&D, M&A có chọn lọc và mua lại cổ phiếu khi có cơ hội thuận lợi. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ đang đánh giá các cơ hội thâu tóm một cách tích cực hơn so với trước đây.
• Chuyển đổi dòng tiền: Tình trạng thâm hụt dòng tiền gần đây chủ yếu phản ánh việc đầu tư vào hàng tồn kho và tiến độ dự án. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng vốn lưu động gắn liền với các dự án chu kỳ dài đang tăng trưởng sẽ dần được chuyển đổi theo thời gian, trong khi tiền thu được từ các tài sản nắm giữ để bán nhiều khả năng sẽ chuyển sang năm 2027.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Oil States' Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.

After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session.

[Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Brian Mizell, Vice President, Investor Relations, Business Development and Marketing. Brian, please go ahead.

Brian Mizell

Good morning, and welcome to Oil States' Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our call today will be led by our President and CEO, Lloyd A. Hajdik and Matthew Autenrieth, Oil States' Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin, we would like to caution listeners regarding forward-looking statements. To the extent that our remarks today contain information other than historical emissions please note that we are relying on the safe harbor protections afforded by federal law. No one should assume that these forward-looking statements remain valid later in the quarter or beyond. Any such remarks should be weighed in the context of the many factors that affect our business, including those risks that closed in our 2025 Form 10-K and Form 10-K/A, along with other recent SEC filings.

This call is being webcast and can be accessed through Oil States' website. A replay of the conference call will be available 2 hours after the completion of this call and will continue to be available for 12 months.

I will now turn the call over to Lloyd.

Lloyd Hajdik

Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our conference call today, where we will discuss our third quarter 2026 results and share our thoughts on the market trends in addition to discussing our company-specific strategy and opportunities ahead as we finish the year. As we approach the end of 2026, our industry continues to be influenced by a combination of strengthening long-term fundaments and ongoing near-term uncertainties. Crude oil prices remain elevated and volatile, driven largely by supply disruptions and inventory reductions resulting from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe.

The sustained disruption of access to Middle East exports has emphasized the global need for secure, reliable and diversified energy supplies and continues to strengthen the multiyear outlook for offshore and international investments, particularly in Brazil, Guyana and across the Asia region. While we remain cautious regarding the timing of a broader recovery in the Middle East, we believe the underlying investment drivers remain firmly intact. These favorable macro fundamentals are demonstrated by our continued backlog bookings momentum with a year-to-date book-to-bill ratio of 1.2x in our Offshore/Manufactured Products segment. Given the higher commodity price environment, we believe operator spending in the U.S. should strengthen as well in 2027.

During the third quarter, we generated revenues of $170 million and adjusted EBITDA of $20 million, up 8% and 6% sequentially, respectively. We are pleased that these results exceeded our guidance with revenue growth led by our Offshore/Manufactured Products and downhole technology segments. We are encouraged by this progress and continue working to improve the profitability of our differentiated products and services. 72% of our consolidated revenues generated in the first 9 months of 2026 were driven by offshore and international activity which is a substantial increase from around 50% in 2023. This strategic shift in business mix has positioned Oil States well for sustained long-term growth.

Our Offshore/Manufactured Products segment generated sequential revenue growth and higher adjusted segment EBITDA, although project and service mix tempered margins. Production platform, military and connector products as well as higher service activity provided positive uplift in the quarter. Backlog increased to its highest level in almost 12 years, totaling $482 million supported by bookings of $135 million, which resulted in a quarterly book-to-bill ratio of 1.3x. Our Completion and Production Services segment maintained a strong margin profile despite a modest sequential decrease in revenue. Changes in customer activity within the U.S. land markets in which we operate, impacted quarterly results. We are responding by closely monitoring costs and pursuing additional opportunities in both international and domestic markets.

Third quarter adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 26% reflects the recent high grading of our service lines that are now more concentrated on our proprietary extended reach tools, Gulf of America service operations and certain international markets. In our Downhole Technologies segment, revenue continued to improve, supported by stronger completion and perforating product sales. Revenue and adjusted segment EBITDA were both substantially higher than a year ago, reflecting significant progress achieved with our expanded product portfolio and higher U.S. activity levels. These improvements were achieved despite the significant headwinds and based in the current period associated with premium explosive powder availability and increased raw material costs. We believe that our focus on international growth, product design improvements, and inventory procurement plans should provide support for long-term revenue growth and margin expansion.

Looking ahead, we remain enthusiastic about prospects for our differentiated technologies including our managed pressure drilling system. The booking of another MPD rental project during the quarter further reflects our continued momentum in customer adoption. We also see future subsea intervention opportunities that will support long-term growth with solutions that leverage our proven riser, connector and pressure control capabilities for well maintenance, workover and decommissioning applications. Further, Deep Sea mineral gathering system opportunities also continue to progress.

With our strong backlog and extensive portfolio of differentiated technologies, Oil States is well positioned to support our customer opening requirements. We will continue to invest selectively in technologies that improve performance, efficiency and the reliability and increasingly complex operating environments.

Matt will now review our operating results along with our financial position in more detail.

Matthew Autenrieth

Thank you, Lloyd, and good morning, everyone. During the third quarter, as Lloyd mentioned, we generated revenues of $170 million and adjusted EBITDA of $20 million, representing sequential increases of 8% and 6%, respectively. We reported net income of $3 million or $0.05 per share which included executive transition, facility exit and other charges. Excluding these charges, our adjusted net income totaled $8 million or $0.15 per share.

Turning to segment performance. our Offshore/Manufactured Products segment generated revenues of $104 million and adjusted segment EBITDA of $19 million in the third quarter, resulting in an adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 18%. The modest decrease in margin sequentially was driven by a third quarter shift in revenue mix toward lower-margin product and service offerings. We achieved a 1.3x book-to-bill ratio in the quarter and 1.2x year-to-date. Our backlog totaled $482 million as of September 30, an increase of 7% sequentially and 21% from a year ago. This is our highest reported level of backlog in almost 12 years. Our growing backlog continues to reflect a diversified mix of offshore and international energy projects as well as military programs.

Our Completion and Production Services segment generated $23 million in revenues and adjusted segment EBITDA of $6 million in the third quarter, resulting in an adjusted segment EBITDA margin of 26%. Revenue and adjusted segment EBITDA declined 5% and 7% sequentially due to changes in customer activity within our U.S. land-based operations. We continue to focus on growing our higher-margin core service lines, both domestically and abroad.

In our Downhole Technologies segment, we generated revenues of $42 million and adjusted segment EBITDA of $4 million. Third quarter revenues increased 6% sequentially and with growth across all major product categories. As further evidence of sales momentum within this segment, revenues reached the highest level since the first quarter of 2023. Sequential adjusted EBITDA comparison was impacted by a nonrecurring tariff refund benefit recognized in the prior quarter and a shift in sales mix. Input costs for our shaped charges remained elevated, particularly the cost of tungsten, explosive powders and copper.

During the first 9 months of 2026, we invested $38 million in inventory purchases necessary to support the execution of our growing backlog as well as strategic longer-term inventory purchases to support increasing demand for our downhole consumable product lines. We invested $10 million in capital expenditures year-to-date to support our growth and generated proceeds of $13 million from asset sales. Our remaining $14 million in assets held for sale will continue to be monetized with timing subject to market conditions and transaction completion. Across the first 3 quarters of the year, we put a new cash flow-based credit facility in place, retired the balance of our outstanding convertible senior notes and maintained a net cash position.

Our strong balance sheet, ample liquidity, continued to provide us with the flexibility to make accretive investments while returning capital to our stockholders. During the first 9 months of 2026, we purchased $9 million of our common stock, with the expiration of our prior share repurchase authorization on October 24, our Board of Directors approved a new $50 million 2-year share repurchase authorization yesterday that runs through October of 2028.

Now Lloyd will offer some market outlook and concluding comments.

Lloyd Hajdik

Thanks, Matt. As we look ahead, we are encouraged by this quarter's progress, growing our backlog and continuing positive customer engagement while exceeding our market guidance. Our priorities include growing our order book, converting existing backlog and to profitable revenue through level delivery and efficiently executing across our core businesses. The broader energy backdrop continues to support our strategic vision. We believe offshore and international markets offer an attractive multiyear opportunity even as activity varies across regions.

Our strategy remains clear: strengthen the core scale differentiated customer-backed growth platforms and pursue selective acquisitions that fill technology gaps while also returning cash to stockholders through opportunistic share repurchases. Cash conversion, returns on invested capital and balance sheet flexibility govern each of these priorities. As we carry out our strategy, we will remain disciplined in managing the business for our stakeholders with the continued attention to backlog conversion, cash generation and prudent capital allocation. Our focus is on commercializing customer-backed technologies, converting our growing backlog into profitable revenue, streamlining execution and maintaining working capital discipline as we scale the business.

With that in mind, our fourth quarter guidance calls for revenues in the range of $172 million to $184 million and adjusted EBITDA of $20 million to $23 million. Customer schedules and project time lines, geopolitical conditions and the timing of contract awards continue to create quarter-to-quarter variations in our results. Even so, our current backlog and the breadth of opportunities across numerous business lines support our confidence in future earnings growth.

Oil States is well positioned with a focused portfolio, a resilient operating base and a clear pathway to solid cash conversion, supported by a disciplined strategy, a healthy balance sheet and meaningful exposure to long cycle markets we believe the company has a strong foundation for continued progress and long-term stockholder value creation.

This concludes our prepared remarks. Caleb, will you please open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question comes from the line of Jim Rollyson with Raymond James.

Phần hỏi đáp

James Rollyson

I appreciate the time this morning. I guess, Lloyd, to start with one of your larger peers talked last week about MPD. And obviously, you guys made another booking this quarter. But talking about approximately 70% of drillships are either have MPD or installing MPD and the thought was expressed that they could [ back grow ] to 85%, 90% over time. Just kind of curious how you see that and how that's unfolding for you because you guys have obviously been successful since introducing your system, just maybe market opportunity over time.

Lloyd Hajdik

Yes. No, great question, Jim, and thanks, and good morning to you as well. So since we've rolled out our MPD technology a couple of years ago, we've had really great customer, call it, acceptance of the newer technology. And really, our opportunity includes that integrated riser joint, both rental systems as well as sales systems. So we do both. We did book an MPD rental project in the third quarter and expect a sale order here in the fourth quarter.

So, in terms of kind of our market outlook for our business, our MPD business, we generally have built in about $35 million to $40 million of revenue, MPD revenues into our model going forward at very good margins, obviously. And these are systems that -- if you're talking to the deepwater drillers, if they're not -- do not have MPD systems on them, a lot of their customers, the operators are requesting or requiring that they'd be at least MPD-ready, which obviously benefits us in the long term.

James Rollyson

Appreciate that. And if I kind of step back in a little bigger picture quite impressive to see, despite all the geopolitical challenges going on this year that your book-to-bill continues to be above 1 and your backlogs back to 2014 levels. Maybe a little color around what's driving that specifically, just kind of mix of products and timing of runoff? And maybe more importantly, just how the conversations levels are going into next year, given all the optimism around kind of a multiyear uptick in offshore spend.

Lloyd Hajdik

Yes. We're very excited about our backlog build. Again, in our prepared comments, and I think it's -- we're up 7% [ sequentially ], but more importantly, 21% year-over-year and the bookings in the third quarter, [ 1:3 ] book time book-to-bill, but when I -- just to take a step back, we had great bookings last year in 2025 on our military products awards, right? But this year, of the $333 million of bookings in the first 9 months of the year, almost 90% of that is related to the offshore energy products. So think about the deepwater. So as backlog is increasing, that's given us great visibility into the Ford mainly starting 2027 with momentum in the offshore as we expect.

So it's -- we're very constructive about the opportunities ahead. Most of it is focused on offshore and deepwater. And as I kind of think about next year in terms of bookings, we're not going to give any guidance on that, but I don't see any change in the momentum there, especially with the projections on EPCI type spending over the next 5 years, starting with next year. So it's a multiyear -- the multiyear offshore backdrop certainly remains and is very constructive for deepwater.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Gengaro with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Stephen Gengaro

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. a couple of things, maybe, Lloyd. The first, when we think about your business in the U.S. land market and you've done a lot to sort of high grade the business, how should we think about your growth in '27 relative to whatever assumptions we make for underlying drilling and completion activity.

Lloyd Hajdik

Yes, maybe not specific to U.S. land, but in general terms, again, our outlook, we'll give full guidance on our fourth quarter call in mid-February. But where we sit today and starting our kind of budget process there in the next couple of weeks, just looking out of kind of an overall very high-level forecast, we certainly believe that we're going to -- revenue is going to grow. [ Revenue is going ] to grow and kind of in line with these market estimates that are out there today. Very clear, most of that growth is coming from international and offshore. U.S. land spending, we do expect to be up whatever data you want to use at [ SCI's data ]or other internal data sources that you have. I think frac spread count is up year-over-year, expect it to go up a little bit next year as well, modestly. So I think for us, as we start our [indiscernible] process again, a little time or tepid on giving any outlook for 2027, but we expect to be in line -- growth in line kind of with the current estimates.

Stephen Gengaro

Great. And when we look at the very strong backlog that you've secured now and we kind of think about the next 12 months, how should we think about -- I know there was a little bit of change based on the mix. But how should we think about sort of the burn rates of that backlog over 12 months?

Lloyd Hajdik

Yes, absolutely. So military products, and I mentioned in the previous couple of questions, our military products comprises about 46%. Almost 50% of our current backlog, and those were the bookings that we booked in third quarter and fourth quarter of 2025. Historically, the conversion rate in the [ forward ] for 12 months, then there was backlog converting to revenue in the [ forward ] 12 months has been about, call it, 65% to 70%. And with the heavier weighting of the multiyear military products in our backlog, that's probably in the 50% to 55% range on the [ 4 to 12 months ], October -- call it October to October or September to September now. So these multiyear military products awards have reduced that conversion rate. But again, it doesn't reflect any change in the margin profile, if anything, it's accretive.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Jayne with Daniel Energy patterns.

Joshua Jayne

I believe one other capital equipment provider this quarter has talked about the increase in discussions and bookings. And obviously, you guys reflected that in your numbers. But they said that they are not really seeing it yet in price. Just with the whole industry dealing with inflation across a number of different ways. I'm just curious how pricing cushions are going today against that backdrop? And is there anything embedded in the recent orders today that may lead to sort of higher pricing or margins moving forward?

Lloyd Hajdik

Yes. If you specifically talk about bookings, so that's centered around our Offshore/Manufactured Products segment, right? So we continue to guide to -- even though margins were a little bit lighter than we had guided to previously. We still guide to an overall margin -- EBITDA margin in that business of 20% and potential for growth beyond this year and next year. So there hasn't been any kind of reduction or concessions really in the pricing and the capital equipment side that we've been tendering and bidding and quoting and the orders that we've secured.

Joshua Jayne

Okay. And then as a follow-up, just the -- to highlight the $50 million repurchase program, that's roughly 10% of the market cap of the business pretty significant. There's also been a decent amount of M&A for international offshore levered businesses this year. Is the repurchase program sort of signal that you're [indiscernible] in the product portfolio today -- or are there things in the market that you see that are available that could be interesting to Oil States. Maybe just talk through your capital allocation framework and how you're thinking about things moving forward.

Lloyd Hajdik

Yes. So from our perspective, capital allocation framework is centered on 3 kind of pillars. One would be the organic, deployment of CapEx and R&D. We do that all day long. Secondly would be opportunistic in M&A and selective M&A. And no, we are not content in our existing portfolio of assets. We are continually looking and probably being a little bit more aggressive than we have been in the past and looking at M&A opportunities going forward. Balance that with our cash flow profile, we should also be able to execute opportunistic share repurchases given the new share repurchase authorization plan program that we have in place.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chuck Minervino with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Charles Minervino

I was hoping you could update us on your free cash flow guidance. If I remember correctly, it was around $35 million to $40 million this year. plus $5 million to $10 million of asset sales, it looks like maybe around breakeven at this point year-to-date. So just wondering if you can kind of give us a little bit of an update there.

Matthew Autenrieth

I'll take that one. We continued to invest in working capital during the third quarter and built an additional $11 million of inventory and that was really to support the projects in our decade high backlog and for the purchase of raw materials to meet the increasing demands for our perforating projects. We continue to expect a release of working capital here in the fourth quarter, but I do want to caution you regarding the normal seasonal slowdown of customer collections as we approach year-end. For the fourth quarter, the free cash flow could range in the $15 million to $25 million range. And I will add that we still have $15 million of assets held for sale, but we're not expecting to recognize the cash from any of those sales here in the fourth quarter. That's not a material [indiscernible].

Lloyd Hajdik

Those assets held for sale proceeds likely carryover due in 2027.

Charles Minervino

Okay. And is the delta between kind of what you were thinking before on free cash flow and kind of what you're thinking now. Is that really just a kind of a delay -- I guess that's working capital that -- that you guys will kind of eventually generate and turn into free cash flow next year. I just kind of like to the right situation,.

Lloyd Hajdik

Yes, it is. [indiscernible] customer project delays, et cetera. But the working capital build, primarily the inventory build year-to-date, $38 million. $31 million of that is coming out of -- or $31 million of working capital bills coming out of offshore manufactured products, which is where our long-cycle projects are -- we really have our long-cycle projects. That's current working capital will turn. There's no issues with the build in working capital if our businesses are growing, which they are, you're going to build working capital.

Charles Minervino

Got it. And then I know one of the things you talked about in Downhole tools for the past couple of quarters was these raw material cost headwinds that kind of I guess, really got fairly aggressive in recent quarters. Is that improving? Or are you still having to manage through that? Just wondering if you can give us an update on that.

Lloyd Hajdik

Yes. We're really starting -- still having to manage through that. But based upon kind of our operational update with our Board and operations themselves, we do believe that, that starts to moderate some here coming in the first and second quarter of next year as we get better access to primarily to explosive powders. So yes, it has continued to be a headwind this year and probably will be in the fourth quarter, but we do believe it begins to moderate early next year.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Lloyd Hajdik, CEO, for closing remarks.

Lloyd Hajdik

Thank you again for joining us today and for the thoughtful questions. We appreciate the continued engagement and interest in our company. I also want to thank our employees for their contributions and our customers and stockholders for their continued support.

Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing our core strategy to deliver profitable growth and maintain a disciplined approach to capital allocation. We believe these efforts strategically position Oil States well for the opportunities ahead. Thank you all, and enjoy the rest of your day, and have a great weekend.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.