Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của IDACORP (IDA): Nâng dự báo EPS nhờ tăng trưởng phụ tải

Điểm tin chính

• IDACORP đã báo cáo EPS pha loãng quý 3/2026 là $2.73, tăng từ mức $2.26 trong quý 3/2025. EPS pha loãng 9 tháng tăng lên $5.76 từ $5.13.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã nâng dự báo EPS pha loãng cả năm 2026 lên $6.40-$6.50, từ khoảng dự báo thấp hơn $0.10 ở mức đáy và thấp hơn $0.05 ở mức đỉnh.
• Số lượng khách hàng tăng 2,2% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, bao gồm mức tăng trưởng 2,4% ở nhóm khách hàng hộ gia đình. Doanh thu công nghiệp tăng 27%, nhờ các khách hàng hợp đồng lớn bắt đầu khởi công và vận hành.
• Kế hoạch Nguồn lực Tích hợp sơ bộ năm 2027 dự báo CAGR 5 năm đạt 8,9% về sản lượng điện bán lẻ, từ khoảng 19.000 GWh vào năm 2027 lên khoảng 29.000 GWh vào năm 2032.
• IDACORP có khoảng 873 triệu USD tiền thu từ hợp đồng kỳ hạn cổ phần sẵn sàng để thanh toán vào cuối quý. Vốn chủ sở hữu chiếm 51% tổng nguồn vốn tại cả IDACORP và Idaho Power, tiệm cận mục tiêu tỷ lệ nợ/vốn chủ sở hữu 50/50 của công ty.
• Ban lãnh đạo vẫn kỳ vọng chi tiêu vốn năm 2026 đạt 1,3 tỷ - 1,5 tỷ USD, với chi tiêu có xu hướng tiến về mức trần. Dự báo vốn cập nhật dự kiến sẽ được công bố trong cuộc họp kết quả kinh doanh quý 4.

Dữ liệu tài chính quan trọng

Kết quả hoạt động kinh doanh và vận hành

Doanh thu bán lẻ cao hơn là động lực tăng trưởng lợi nhuận lớn nhất. Giá cước cơ sở hiện tại và tăng trưởng khách hàng đã đóng góp gần 44 triệu USD trong quý. Mức sử dụng bình quân trên mỗi khách hàng về cơ bản không đổi, trong khi cơ chế điều chỉnh chi phí cố định đã làm giảm doanh thu bán lẻ do doanh số bán hàng cho hộ gia đình và thương mại nhỏ tăng nhẹ.

Các khách hàng hợp đồng lớn đang trở thành nhân tố đóng góp lợi nhuận đáng kể hơn. Meta đã bắt đầu vận hành trung tâm dữ liệu ở phía nam Boise vào tháng 9 và đang mở rộng quy mô, trong khi dự án mở rộng Fab 1 và Fab 2 của Micron tiếp tục tiến triển. Doanh số đã điều chỉnh theo thời tiết tăng 2,9%, bao gồm mức tăng trưởng sản lượng 5,8% trên nhóm khách hàng công nghiệp và hợp đồng đặc biệt.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết CAGR tăng trưởng phụ tải bán lẻ sơ bộ 8,9% bao gồm Micron Fab 1 và Fab 2, trung tâm dữ liệu đầu tiên của Meta, một trung tâm dữ liệu chưa tiết lộ tên khác và các khách hàng trong ngành khai khoáng, chế biến thực phẩm cũng như các ngành công nghiệp khác. Con số này không bao gồm các dự án tiềm năng trong tương lai như Micron Fab 3 và các trung tâm dữ liệu bổ sung.

Công ty đã nhận được 76 yêu cầu tìm hiểu trong năm 2026 từ các dự án yêu cầu công suất trên 1 MW. Ban lãnh đạo đã mô tả danh mục dự án tiềm năng mở rộng khoảng 7 GW, bao gồm khoảng 1 GW dự án đầy hứa hẹn, 1 GW đang trong giai đoạn nghiên cứu tích cực và 5 GW ở giai đoạn sơ bộ. Các con số này không bao gồm Meta 1 và Micron Fab 1.

IDACORP tiếp tục mở rộng công suất truyền tải và phát điện. Dự án truyền tải Boardman-to-Hemingway vẫn theo đúng kế hoạch đi vào hoạt động vào cuối năm 2027. Khoảng 780 cột điện đã được dựng lên, chiếm khoảng 60% tổng số cột của dự án, và khoảng 100 dặm dây dẫn đã được lắp đặt.

Hoạt động xây dựng đang được tiến hành tại nhà máy khí đốt tự nhiên Bennett 167 MW, dự kiến đi vào hoạt động năm 2028. Công ty cũng đã nộp đơn xin phê duyệt dự án South Hills 222 MW cho năm 2029 và dự án Peregrine 430 MW cho năm 2030. Thỏa thuận cung cấp thiết bị đã được ký kết cho cả ba dự án.

Đối với đợt kêu gọi đầu tư nguồn lực năm 2032, Idaho Power đã đưa 11 dự án vào danh sách rút gọn từ hơn 100 hồ sơ dự thầu. Danh sách bao gồm nguồn phát điện do công ty sở hữu, năng lượng mặt trời, điện gió, hệ thống lưu trữ pin và mua từ thị trường. Ban lãnh đạo đang đánh giá một dự án chu trình hỗn hợp 432 MW cho năm 2032 và dự kiến sẽ chọn các dự án vào cuối năm.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng doanh thu từ các khách hàng hợp đồng lớn sẽ tiếp tục tăng tốc và cho biết công ty vẫn giữ vững vị thế để hướng tới năm tăng trưởng EPS thứ 19 liên tiếp.

Công ty tin rằng họ đã đảm bảo đủ vốn chủ sở hữu cần thiết cho kế hoạch vốn hiện tại cho đến hết năm 2027 và có khả năng kéo dài sang một phần năm 2028. Nhu cầu vốn chủ sở hữu còn lại theo kế hoạch hiện tại dự kiến sẽ được giải quyết thông qua việc phát hành cổ phiếu theo giá thị trường (ATM). Chi tiêu vốn bổ sung nhìn chung sẽ được tài trợ theo tỷ lệ 50/50 giữa nợ và vốn chủ sở hữu, tùy thuộc vào nguồn vốn của khách hàng và cấu trúc thanh toán dự án.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Dự báo vốn hiện tại không bao gồm các dự án tự xây dựng tiềm năng cho năm 2031 và 2032. Ban lãnh đạo sẽ cung cấp bản dự báo cập nhật trong cuộc họp kết quả kinh doanh quý 4.
• Một lượng lớn cơ sở hạ tầng phục vụ diện rộng khách hàng dự kiến sẽ đi vào hoạt động vào năm 2027, mang lại chi phí khấu hao cao hơn và làm mất khoản trích lập chi phí vốn trong thời gian xây dựng (AFUDC) trước khi có bất kỳ sự điều chỉnh giá cước tương ứng nào.
• Ban lãnh đạo đang đánh giá khả năng nộp hồ sơ xin điều chỉnh giá cước chung tại Idaho vào tháng 6/2027. Bình luận sơ bộ có thể được đưa ra cùng với kết quả quý 4, trong khi hồ sơ nộp chính thức sẽ yêu cầu thông báo trước 60 ngày.
• Tình trạng thắt chặt chuỗi cung ứng vẫn tồn tại đối với máy cắt, máy biến áp và dây dẫn. Thị trường nhà thầu EPC cũng khá eo hẹp, mặc dù công ty đã chọn được nhà thầu cho tất cả trừ một cơ sở phát điện theo kế hoạch.
• Ban lãnh đạo tin rằng một số khoản khấu hao tín dụng thuế bổ sung có thể sẽ cần thiết trong năm 2027, tùy thuộc vào kết quả hoạt động, tiến độ dự án, việc tài trợ vốn và kết quả quản lý pháp lý.
• Dự báo phụ tải bao gồm các khách hàng đã ký hợp đồng hoặc có cam kết tài chính lớn. Các dự án tiềm năng sơ bộ vẫn đang trong quá trình đàm phán và chờ cam kết thêm.

Tóm tắt phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Danh mục phụ tải và cam kết nguồn lực: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết một khách hàng không nhất thiết phải có sự phê duyệt cuối cùng từ ủy ban mới được đưa vào dự báo phụ tải. Một thỏa thuận dịch vụ năng lượng đã ký hoặc cam kết tài chính đáng kể là có thể đủ. Danh sách rút gọn nguồn lực cuối cùng lớn hơn nhu cầu đã cam kết để duy trì tính linh hoạt nếu các phụ tải bổ sung được triển khai.

Nhu cầu công suất năm 2032: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết hệ thống có khả năng sẽ cần thêm các nguồn lực vượt ngoài số lượng bổ sung dự kiến cho năm 2031. Idaho Power đang đánh giá xem có nên tiếp tục dự án chu trình hỗn hợp 432 MW dựa trên dự báo phụ tải đã cập nhật hay không.

Micron Fab 2: Công ty tiếp tục đàm phán thỏa thuận dịch vụ năng lượng với Micron. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các cuộc thảo luận đang có tiến triển nhưng không đưa ra ngày ký kết cụ thể.

Chính sách cổ tức: IDACORP có thể tạm thời giảm xuống dưới mục tiêu tỷ lệ chi trả cổ tức 50%-60% do tái đầu tư vốn vào hoạt động kinh doanh. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ không coi việc tạm thời giảm xuống dưới khoảng đó là vấn đề đáng lo ngại.

Rủi ro lãi suất: Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh nhu cầu tái tài trợ hạn chế, chỉ có 80 triệu USD nợ dài hạn đáo hạn vào năm 2030. IDACORP không có nợ công ty mẹ hoặc nợ dài hạn lãi suất thả nổi.

Biên bản đầy đủ cuộc họp kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to IDACORP's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded, and our webcast is live. A replay will be available later today and for the next 12 months on the IDACORP website. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the call over to Amy Shaw, Vice President of Finance, Compliance and Risk.

Amy Shaw

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining our call. The slides will reference during today's call are available on IDACORP's website.

As noted on Slide 2, our discussion today includes forward-looking statements, including things like earnings guidance, spending forecasts financing plans, regulatory plans and actions and estimates and assumptions that reflect our current views on what the future holds. These are all subject to risks and uncertainties, those risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today, and we caution against placing undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. We've included our cautionary note on forward-looking statements and various risk factors in more detail for your review in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

As shown on Slide 3, also presenting today, we have Lisa Grow, President and CEO; Brian Buckham, CFO; and John Wonderlich, Investor Relations Manager. Slide 4 has a summary of our third quarter financial results.

IDACORP's diluted earnings per share were $2.73 compared with $2.26 for last year's third quarter. For the first 9 months of 2026, diluted earnings per share were $5.76 versus $5.13 in 2025. And those results only include additional tax credit amortization of $6.3 million in the first 9 months of 2026 versus $39 million in the first 9 months of last year, which showcases the strong performance so far for 2026.

For our key operating metrics, we're raising our full year IDACORP diluted earnings per share guidance range by $0.10 on the bottom and $0.05 at the top of the range. Our new range is $6.40 to $6.50 per share. This increase is driven by our strong operational results in the third quarter. It includes our expectation that Idaho Power will use less than $10 million of additional tax credit amortization for the full year which is a reduction from the less than $15 million in our prior guidance. These estimates also assume historically normal weather conditions for the rest of the year.

Now I'll turn the call over to Lisa.

Lisa Grow

Thank you, Amy, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. I'll start by highlighting the impressive growth we continue to see across our service area. This growth is diverse, happening across all customer types in a wide variety of industries. As you can see on Slide 5, our customer count has increased 2.2% since last year's third quarter, including 2.4% growth in the residential segment. A particular note for this quarter are industrial revenues, which increased by an incredible 27% since last year's third quarter. After years of diligent planning and project execution, we're seeing significant revenues coming in from large contract customers as they construct their facilities and come online.

We're excited to be part of their success. Meta officially began operations at its data center south of Boise in September and is now ramping up. While Micron Fab 1 and Fab 2 expansions in Boise continue to make impressive progress. We've included photos on Slide 6. So you can see the scale of these projects as well as a couple of others.

Our preliminary load growth CAGR for the 2027 IRP is 8.9% for retail sales for the next 5 years. That increase includes the higher base year load in the calculation. While this is still preliminary, you can see the substantial growth on Slide 7. To put this in perspective, [indiscernible] forecast of about 19,000 gigawatt hours in 2027 and growing to about 29,000 gigawatt hours by 2032. This growth is substantial, and we're working hard to ensure Idaho Power stays ready to meet it and that we do so responsibly. As a reminder, for large contract customers, our preliminary load projections only include the customers who have signed contracts or made significant financial commitment to Idaho Power for infrastructure build-out.

In addition to large customers that we've already discussed, there's a diverse group of new and expanding customers interested in investing in our service area, including manufacturing, mining, food processing, transportation, data centers and other energy-intensive industries. To date, in 2026, we've received 76 inquiries from projects with energy needs greater than 1 megawatt, which is on pace for another year of historically high project activity. These projects have the potential to bring new jobs, investment and long-term economic opportunities. They also reinforce the importance of thoughtful planning to ensure we continue providing affordable and reliable service to our customers.

To highlight a few other projects, Idaho Power broke ground this month on transmission facilities needed to provide electric service to perpetual resources [indiscernible] project, which will support domestic production of critical minerals and strengthen U.S. supply chain. We also recently celebrated the grand opening of Tractor Supply Company's new distribution center in Nampa, another great example of economic growth and business investment happening across our service area.

Idaho Power is focused on affordability as we grow, and we're proud that our prices remain 20% to 30% lower than the national average. As shown on Slide 8, since 2016, average national electric rates have increased 41%. Rent in Boise has increased 85% and CPI inflation has grown 39%, while Idaho Power residential rates have increased 24% over that same period, an average of just 2.2% a year. We're strong advocates of Idaho's growth pace for growth regulatory approach and our contracts with large contract customers seek to protect Idaho Power and our existing customers from risk and cost shifting.

On Slide 9, you can see some of the contract protections we target in energy service agreements with large contract customers. As I mentioned on last quarter's call, the substantial increase in revenues we're seeing from these customers was a key driver for Idaho Power not filing a rate case in 2026, which helps demonstrate the benefit of the growth pace for growth model in Idaho. We're moving full speed ahead, executing on projects to serve our growing customer base and enhance our grid.

As shown on Slide 10, we're making great progress on Boardman to Hemingway transmission line. To date, more than 1,200 structure pads have been built, 1,100 foundations have been installed and about 780 towers have gone up, which represents about 60% of the project total. And additionally, we've installed around 100 miles of conductor. B2H remains on schedule for an in-service date in late 2027. In addition, construction in Nevada continues on the Swift North Transmission Project which we expect to be completed in 2028. On Gateway West Transmission project, we continue to make progress, and we have the transmission line construction out for bid.

Moving to Slide 11. We're continuing to make progress on 3 company-owned natural gas-fueled projects. Construction is underway on a 167-megawatt resource who are building next to our existing Bennett Mountain gas plant. The new Bennett facility has a scheduled in-service date of 2028, and we have a CPCN, air permit and EPC contract in place. We have CPCN applications filed for South Hills, a 222-megawatt project, scheduled for operation in 2029 as well as the 430-megawatt Peregrine project, which is slated for 2030. We've executed equipment supply agreements for all 3 projects. Additionally, we signed an EPC contract for the Peregrine project, and we're negotiating a contract for the South Hills project. The dispatchable energy from these plants will help us meet our projected load deficits and serve our customers with the lease costs, lease resources.

Looking ahead to additional capacity and energy needs, our evaluation team received more than 100 bps for our 2032 RFP and has developed a final shortlist of 11 projects as shown on Slide 12. As has been the case in past RFPs, Idaho Power has multiple company-owned projects on the final short list, and we were pleased to have competitive bids. In fact, the 2031 Self-Build project on the slide is the top-ranked project. The list also includes third-party-owned solar, wind and battery facilities, along with a few market purchase bids. We don't intend to contract with every project on the list as of now. It's a substantial number of megawatts in total, more megawatts than in our updated load forecast through 2032. However, consistent with what we've done previously, our final shortlist can accommodate the potential incremental growth. And it's good to have that optionality. We're working to get contracts in place and expect to move forward with the selected projects by the end of this year, so keep an eye out for CPCN filings.

And finally, as the Oregon sale goes, we continue to expect the sales to close in the spring of 2027, pending successful regulatory outcomes. We recently received FERC approval and the Oregon and Idaho state regulatory processes continue.

And with that, I will turn the time over to Brian.

Brian Buckham

Hi, everybody. Thanks for joining. I'm going to jump right into the drivers of the quarter's results on Slide 13. You can see the biggest driver was higher retail revenues, resulting from a combination of incremental benefits from current base rates and customer growth. Those were nearly a $44 million benefit for the quarter, and they were about $90 million year-to-date combined. Overall, per customer usage was essentially flat for the quarter, and the fixed cost adjustment mechanism decreased retail revenues for the quarter. That was a result of slightly higher sales to the residential and small commercial customer classes.

The new line we added in the second quarter, revenues from large contract customers, increased operating income by almost $12 million for the quarter. From a year-to-date perspective, it was around $20 million, which illustrates the ramp-up. This piece is important because we're seeing the benefit of large contract customers materializing, and that accounts for much of the 27% increase in industrial customer revenues that Lisa mentioned.

As we expected, O&M expense came in higher in the third quarter, and the primary drivers were the amortization of previously deferred costs for the Jim Bridger and Valmy and our welfare mitigation program. Remember, we recover a large portion of those items through rates and regulatory mechanisms.

Depreciation and amortization expense increased a little over $7 million for the quarter, that's also not surprising because we continue to invest heavily in system infrastructure to support increasing customer demand. So we have more plants in service.

Other changes in operating revenues and expenses increased operating income by $10.6 million, similar to the impact we saw in the first half of the year, this benefit resulted primarily from a decrease in net power supply expenses not accrued to the power cost adjustment mechanisms. That was in large part due to updates to the Idaho jurisdiction PCA mechanism based in last year's rate case. Lower property tax expense also contributed to this benefit and was the result of a change in line Idaho in 2025.

Our nonoperating expense increased slightly as higher [indiscernible] balances driven again by heavy infrastructure investment led to higher [indiscernible], which mostly offset higher interest expense. If you take a look at the balance sheet, you'll equip was over $2.1 billion at quarter end, which really illustrates Lisa's point about how busy we've been as a company. That's, of course, the beauty of financial statements. Sometimes the numbers won't tell a story equivalent to [indiscernible].

Income tax expense, if you exclude ADITCs provided a $6.7 million benefit for the quarter, that was mostly driven by plant-related flow-through items. Lisa mentioned that Idaho Power recorded just over $6 million of additional ADITCs so far this year compared to $39 million reported last year over the same time period, so a positive start contrast there. I think that's particularly notable given the higher estimated year-end book equity in the Idaho jurisdiction this year. And it's demonstrative of the strong financial performance the company has had so far this year.

We've been working through our capital budget forecast, which entails updating project timing and pricing as well as incorporating new projects. The CapEx graph from prior quarters is outdated. And as you might expect, may underrepresent what we expect our capital will look like over the planning window. We plan to provide an updated CapEx forecast on our Q4 earnings conference call on our more typical cadence, and it will incorporate our standard updates as well as the CapEx impact of company-owned projects selected from the 2032 RFP, lease that are far enough along in the process and ready for prime time.

I want to spend a little time talking about financing, ahead of what we expect to be more detail on the Q4 earnings call, and that takes us to Slide 14. In the third quarter, we executed $268 million of additional forward sale agreements through our 2026 ATM program. That added to the $265 million we sold in the first half of the year under that same program. And all of those shares are on forwards. We also still have proceeds available from the unsettled forwards from both our prior 2024 ATM program and our follow-on offering from last year, which you can see in the chart on the slide. I think the main point here is that we have a balance of about $873 million of forwards available for settlement right now.

And we've intentionally prefunded our equity needs so we can blend that equity to remain around our target 50-50 debt equity capital structure. At the end of Q3, without counting on settled forwards, we were at 51% equity of both IDACORP and Idaho Power. So pretty close to our target with a little bit of debt headroom.

We'll refresh it for our Q4 call with the related refreshed CapEx look. But as you can see on Slide 15, we've already solved for the bulk of our current plans equity needs. We have the equity we need for the current plan through 2027 and likely into part of 2028, and we currently expect to address the remaining amount of equity required to fund our current CapEx plan through ATM issuances.

Additional CapEx would require some additional debt and growth equity with the amount dependent in large part on the payment timing for that CapEx. Our approach on financing will continue to be mindful of managing dilution with things like forward and payment timing, reimbursable customer funding and other approaches.

Related to that, with recent increases in volatility in interest rates, I thought it'd be good to talk about interest expense going forward. We're fortunate to have limited long-term debt refinancing requirements over the next 5 years with just $80 million maturing in 2030. We also don't have any holding company debt or long-term variable rate debt. We're also in a more frequent rate case mode, allowing for more timely cost of capital adjustments in a rising interest rate environment. Each of those attributes reduces our exposure to interest rate risk going forward.

On the regulatory front, it's time for us to start running numbers on a potential June 2027 rate case filing. Revenues from the outcome of last year's general rate case, revenues from large contract customers and customer growth across all classes, all helped keep us out of our rate case this year, notwithstanding inflationary pressures. While we have a lot of infrastructure under construction this year, we expect some of the larger projects built for the benefit of our broad customer base won't convert from [ quick ] to plant in service until 2027. Those are projects like B2H through other transmission projects, hydroplant refurbishments and system hardening to benefit all customers just as a few examples.

Contrast that with the infrastructure we built for large contract customers, which we recovered through ESAs with those customers. Having a large portion of our broad customer projects going into service in 2027 increases the likelihood of us filing a general rate case next year, but we will be doing the math on it.

As we head into the last couple of months of the year, we're seeing large contract customer revenues continue to ramp after years of investment by both them and us. We've had strong financial results year-to-date and we're looking good going into year-end for what we expect to be a 19th consecutive year of EPS growth. And we're focused on affordability for our customers while also running full steam ahead, developing and constructing several transmission and generation projects for existing and future customers. We're 2 years into more than doubling our rate base over a 5-year window, we're executing efficiently on our financing plan to do all of that. I like where we're sitting right now, and I like where we're headed.

For those attending, we're excited to see you with the upcoming EEI Financial Conference in sunny Arizona. As many of you know, it's one of my favorite events of the year.

So I'm going to wrap it up there and hand it over to America's top IR professional, John Wonderlich.

John Wonderlich

Thanks, Brian. Turning to Slide 16. You can see our 2026 full year earnings guidance and key operating metrics, we've had some solid improvement in our earnings and ADITC guidance. As usual, we assume normal weather for the remainder of 2026 for our guidance. With continued strong operating performance, we now expect IDACORP's diluted earnings per share this year to be in the range of $6.40 to $6.50. We lifted the bottom and top ends of the range. We also see improvement in our ADITC expectations. So we're cutting $5 million off of our previous guidance. We now expect that Idaho Power will use less than $10 million of additional investment tax credit amortization in 2026. This is much less than the $40 million we amortized for full year 2025, especially when considering the significant increase in year-end book equity.

We now expect full year O&M expense to be in the range of $535 million to $545 million. We still anticipate spending between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion on CapEx in 2026. As noted on the second quarter call, at this point, it's fair to say we're trending to the high end of that range for CapEx. Based on our current forecast of hydropower operating conditions, we now expect hydro power generation to be within the range of 5.5 million to 6.0 million megawatt hours for the year.

With that, we're happy to address questions you might have.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Wells Fargo.

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Whitney Mutalemwa

This is Whitney Mutalemwa for Shar. Yes. Since this -- assuming the short list is larger than the committed forecast, what has to happen before you contract beyond committed need? Like does a pipeline customer have to sign and now get commission approval within the 270 days before you'd commit to more self-build?

Lisa Grow

It can be that, but we also -- any time a customer really -- there's a signed ESA or they've made a significant financial commitment, then we would add them to the load forecast. It doesn't happen to have to go all the way through commission approval.

Whitney Mutalemwa

Okay. Understood. And since the 29,000 gigawatt hours only includes signed or committed customer. How big is the pipeline sitting outside in megawatts given the 76 inquiries this year?

Lisa Grow

It's sitting right about 4,000 megawatts, and I know that number seems familiar. We've said that number for several calls, only -- it's not the same 4,000 because as projects go into construction, we move them out of that as other projects come in. So I think -- do you want to add something, Adam?

Adam Richins

Yes. I think you mentioned the 4 gigawatts, and that's what we've mentioned in the past. Just a couple of quick things. The 4 gigawatts does not include Micron Fab 1 or Meta 1. Meta 1, obviously, as we mentioned in the call, is complete Micron Fab 1 is progressing. So the 4 gigawatts we talk about is truly a future pipeline. And of that 4 gigawatts, I'd say, 1 gigawatt is what we often refer to as promising usually includes a financial commitment and those entities are moving towards construction or potential construction. We have another 1 gigawatt of the 4 that are being actively studied, so we commonly refer to those as the study phase, maybe no major financial commitments yet, but we've been paid to study those projects. And then around 2 gigawatts of the 4 feel preliminary [indiscernible] what we refer to as, but we have another 3 gigawatts that have come in the door since we talked about the 4 gigawatt number. So really 5 gigawatts are preliminary. And again, another 1 gigawatt is promising and another 1 gigawatt is being studied just to give you kind of an overall look at where we stand.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lonegan with Barclays.

Michael Lonegan

So on the RFP, I understand the total resources on the final shortlist may exceed your capacity needs. I was just wondering if you could share specific amount of resource and megawatts you expect to procure. And then on the self build, can you talk about the timing of when the capital will start being spent and the profile of that investment?

Adam Richins

Michael, this is Adam. So I think with Slide 12 that we showed you, it shows a resource for 2031. And that resource is the 430-megawatt gas plants actually an advanced simple cycle plan. We have started moving forward with that project. The turbines have been reserved, the EPC contract has been awarded and it was the #1 ring project for that year. I think the project we're really diving deep into right now is the 2032 project that is 432 megawatts, that's a combined cycle plant, that was also the #1 project except in 2032, and we're just evaluating load right now to make sure that, that's the project we're going to go forward with.

In terms of CapEx, it's spread out throughout the years. We obviously have projects in '28, '29, '30, '31 and '32, and we have transition lines that we're building during that period too. So it stayed pretty consistent in terms of the spend One of the things we're noticing now is a lot of times these projects, you have to put CapEx for it a little bit earlier than we used to. So you'll see some of that spend a little bit can be years in advance [indiscernible] projects going into service.

Michael Lonegan

And then that's [indiscernible], I think you alluded to, it could be at the incremental capital could be a 50-50 equity debt. Is that correct?

Brian Buckham

Yes. This is, Brian. The incremental costs above what's in the plan that's out there now. If you look back at our slides from last quarter, you can see a planned capital forecast. Any expenses above what's in that, we would expect to fund 50-50 debt equity. What I will say is there are exceptions for that. For example, there may be some instances, our customers upfront on the portion of one there may be opportunities for build transfer arrangement put the payment schedule later in the cycle. As Adam mentioned, typically, it's milestone payments, but that's something that's up for discussion as we go through RFP processes.

What I will say is the CapEx forecast you've seen in the past, neither of those 2 plants are in that CapEx forecast. Those would be entirely incremental to what you see if they were to move ahead.

Michael Lonegan

And then lastly for me on Micron Fab 2, just wondering if you could share the status of negotiations and when you expect to sign an ESA. I think you previously said before year-end. So is that still the expectation, something very near term the next couple of months?

Lisa Grow

Well, we certainly are continuing to work with them, and we feel like it's going well. And certainly, we're hopeful that we'll meet those time lines, and we'll certainly see the filing when we do.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Ellinghaus with Siebert Williams Shank.

Christopher Ellinghaus

Just looking at Slide 12, you've had a continuous flow of new resources. At what point does inventional combined cycle start to make sense to sort of fill in or get slightly better efficiencies.

Lisa Grow

Well, we certainly would have taken a few of those, if we could have got them by now. But certainly, when you start looking into the 2032 range, I think that's when that's -- what combined cycle.

Adam Richins

Yes. Chris, this is Adam. That 2032 project, that's 432 megawatts, that is a combined cycle project.

Christopher Ellinghaus

Okay. Can you qualify the quarter in terms of what the weather benefit look like for the period?

Lisa Grow

Sure. If I have that. Do you have that, Brian?

Brian Buckham

Yes. I can give you some indication on that. I mean one of the big drivers, of course, [indiscernible] year-over-year. Q3 was actually pretty decent. So we saw some benefit from that. I think maybe the best way I could give you the indication is weather-normalized sales and you can compare that to the non-normalized sales that are in the 10-Q, but our weather-normalized sales overall were 2.9%. I think a lot of the driver of that. If you think about some of the large loads and special contracts that are coming on, the weather-normalized sales, weather doesn't have as big of an impact on them. But for industrial and special contract combined was 5.8%. And that sales volume, so a pretty significant increase.

And then Lisa mentioned the other side, the revenue side, 27% increase from the large load customers. So on the weather side, timing of precipitation in the second quarter led to some irrigation sales pretty consistent with last year in Q3. But beyond that, it wasn't as weather impacted. If you look at heating and cooling degree days, they were deviated from normal, but not as much year-over-year.

Christopher Ellinghaus

Right. Okay. So Brian, given the dividend payout target, you're sort of continuing a pace what you have been doing certainly what the recent dividend increase was, you start to run up against the bottom of the payout range. Is there a hard target there? Is there a minimum you're willing to get to? Or just sort of what are your thoughts because it's not that far off.

Brian Buckham

Yes, Chris, I'd say we're not too far off of that now as you look at it. We don't have a concern if for some period of time, we fall below that 50% to 60% dividend target range. In fact, we very well may do so as we reinvest capital in the business rather than pay it out as dividends. What that gives us though is very significant dividend horsepower for the set we do recognize the importance of the dividend, but we also recognize the benefit to our owners of reinvesting the capital. So if we were to fall below, I think we'd get pretty significant support from our shareholders in making that reinvestment.

Christopher Ellinghaus

Okay. The IRP preliminary numbers in terms of load growth have accelerated a little bit. How much of that is a function of some of big items, the big ticket items like Micron 2? And how much of that is -- can you sort of characterize given the higher base where you're seeing that acceleration come from?

Lisa Grow

Go ahead.

Adam Richins

This is Adam, Chris. So the 8.9% that we just showed you does include Fab 1 and Fab 2 of Micron. It includes Meta 1, which we talked about that just went online. It also includes another data center that's been unnamed at this point, so I can't necessarily talk about it. but it has other diverse loads, it includes Perpetual, includes [indiscernible] and Chobani. So that's kind of what makes up that load growth. Obviously, we're seeing a fair amount of residential growth, too. I think it was right around 1% of that growth is residential. We're seeing some irrigation growth. I think over 0.5% of it was irrigation loads. What that does not include that 8.9% does not include for example, with Micron were to move forward with a Fab 3 or diode, which we've talked about before or any other data centers, just to give you a little bit of color on what it does and does not include.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Russo with Jefferies.

Brian Russo

Just to try to triangulate the 8.9% IRP loan growth with the 2032 RFP. I mean, in theory, how what does that RFP imply in terms of 2032 needs?

Lisa Grow

Sorry, I didn't hear that last bit...

Adam Richins

So this is Adam. I think we've touched on this just a little bit, but the biggest question on the 2032 is again, that 432-megawatt combined cycle plant. It feels like it's going in that direction, but we still need to kind of look at the load forecast, the few other things, and then we'll make a decision on that front. But to your point, 2032 is likely going to need some resources. But it's going to need something in addition to what we have in '31.

Brian Russo

Okay. Got it. And then just given the pipeline, that you discussed earlier and this new IRP? And should we expect like a similar cadence of like annual RFPs even past '32 that we would likely see the past 4 or 5 years. I mean, is there still a lot more load behind, say, Micron Fab 2?

Lisa Grow

Certainly, I mean, as load continues to come in and we continue to negotiate these ESAs, it is possible, absolutely. And that's been kind of the nice part about our growth story is we are seeing into the with some of these customers. But of course, it will be contingent upon the final negotiations. But yes, I mean, from where we sit, I think it's possible.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.

Unknown Analyst

This is [indiscernible] for Dave. So starting with the ITC, you now expect to use less than $10 million this year. So looking forward, do you think you could be earning above the minimum ROE in the next few years and no longer be required in the ADITCs?

Lisa Grow

Well, that will largely depend on sort of the project timing and sort of how the financing plan. But certainly, our goal to use as few as possible, what would you add?

Brian Buckham

Yes, Alex, just looking at each individual year this year with a number of less than $10 million, if possible to get down to 0 and grow above that would take very strong operating performance in the fourth quarter for that to happen, some of it probably weather-driven. If you look ahead to 2027, one of the things that I've really focused on is just what's happening operationally in 2027 from a plant closing perspective. So you see a lot of quick convert. When that happens, if there's no rate change that will accommodate that at the beginning of the year, then you do end up with the loss of AFUDC and you take on depreciation. That makes it hard to get through 2027 without some ADITC usage.

And then '28, if we filed our rate case in 2027, then '28 would have the benefit of that rate case. Again, you've got quite a bit of plan going into service. But a lot of that's offset by large contract customer revenues. And so that's the analysis we have to look at every year. But as I look at 2027 now, we'll give our forecast for earnings and ADITC usage in February. But my preliminary thoughts are, I do believe we use in 2027.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. Very clear. And then moving to supply chain. You have a large CapEx stand ahead and you have signed more contracts since the last update. So could you comment on where do you see the main supply chain bottlenecks from your perspective? And also how you are preparing to execute on that plan and on the potential incremental CapEx to be announced in the next update? Like how much of that is already procured or on track?

Lisa Grow

As far as the turbines go, we either have reservation agreements or supply agreement. So we feel really strong about the plan. Of course, there's always the breakers and transformers and conductor that just seems to be it's a challenge, but we get ahead of it. So I feel like we're in a really good spot for those projects. Is there anything you would add, Adam?

Adam Richins

No, the only thing maybe is that the EPC contractor market has been tough, too, and we've been really fortunate in that area to be able to award and select EPC contractors for every one of these plants, but one at this point. So that was something we were a little worried about. I think contractors are very interested in our diverse load, and so they've been interested in bidding into these projects, and we've been pleasantly surprised with the variety of contractors we've received and the bids we've received.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of [ Nicholas Woods ] with Bank of America.

Unknown Analyst

Maybe could you just give me a sense which data center loads that were mentioned earlier already included in the demand assumptions underpinning the 2032 RFP?

Adam Richins

Yes. This is Adam. So the 2032 RFP would have had just 1 data center, which is Meta 1. So data centers that are looking at us or I mentioned an unnamed data center that we feel pretty confident about those were not included in that load forecast, which I think was based on 2025 IRP.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. And then you mentioned about you guys are running the numbers to see if you guys file a 2027 rate case. When could we expect an update on whether you guys do proceed on doing that or not?

Lisa Grow

Generally, we kind of look to file in June. We have to give a 60-day notice of intent to file in Idaho. So that's kind of how we're thinking about it when we feel like we'll have a good look at what we have coming at us. So I think that's generally what we're focused on.

Brian Buckham

Yes, this is Brian. I'll just add that. By the time we hit we have the fourth quarter call, we've done some of our early analysis. It takes long to put a rate case together that we'll at least have some preliminary financials that will give us the ability to make a preliminary call on whether we file a risk case or not. It is, as Lisa mentioned, that notice of filing the definitive moment of that. But we may be able to give a little bit of insight on the Q4 call.

Operator

That concludes the question-and-answer session for today. Ms. Grow, I will now turn the conference back to you.

Lisa Grow

Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your continued interest in IDACORP. I look forward to seeing you all at EEI. And I hope you have a great evening, and I wish you a very Happy Halloween. I hope you get all dark chocolate. Thanks.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.