Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 4 năm tài chính 2026 của Forestar (FOR): Dự báo doanh thu năm 2027

Điểm tin chính

• Forestar (NYSE: FOR) đã đạt doanh thu 580,8 triệu USD và lợi nhuận thuần thuộc về Forestar là 59,2 triệu USD, tương đương 1,15 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng trong quý 4 năm tài chính 2026.
• Doanh thu cả năm đạt 1,6 tỷ USD, trong khi lợi nhuận thuần thuộc về Forestar đạt tổng cộng 142,6 triệu USD, tương đương 2,78 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp quý 4 đã giảm xuống 17,8% từ mức 22,3% của cùng kỳ năm trước, chủ yếu do 7,6 triệu USD chi phí suy giảm giá trị bất động sản và chi phí quyết toán dự án cao hơn. Nếu không tính các khoản này, biên lợi nhuận gộp đạt 20,8%.
• Forestar kết thúc năm với thanh khoản 1,3 tỷ USD và tỷ lệ nợ thuần trên tổng vốn là 6,7%. Giá trị sổ sách trên mỗi cổ phiếu tăng 8% lên 37,56 USD.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến doanh thu năm tài chính 2027 đạt từ 1,4 tỷ USD đến 1,5 tỷ USD và số lượng lô đất bàn giao đạt từ 12.000 đến 13.000 lô, trong đó hoạt động trong nửa cuối năm dự kiến sẽ vượt nửa đầu năm.
• Hạn chế về khả năng chi trả nhà ở, tâm lý người tiêu dùng thận trọng và lãi suất thế chấp cao hơn vẫn là những áp lực ngắn hạn đối với cầu nhà ở mới và việc mua lô đất của các nhà phát triển bất động sản.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Tính đến ngày 30 tháng 9, Forestar nắm giữ 657 triệu USD tiền mặt không bị hạn chế và 658 triệu USD hạn mức chưa sử dụng theo hạn mức tín dụng tuần hoàn. Tổng nợ là 794 triệu USD, không có khoản trái phiếu cao cấp nào đáo hạn cho đến năm tài chính 2028. Vốn chủ sở hữu đạt tổng cộng 1,9 tỷ USD.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Forestar đã đầu tư 299 triệu USD vào việc mua lại và phát triển quỹ đất trong quý 4 và 1,3 tỷ USD cho cả năm. Khoảng 80% của cả hai khoản tiền này dành cho việc phát triển và 20% dành cho việc mua đất. Công ty tiếp tục mục tiêu đạt lợi nhuận trước thuế tối thiểu 15% trên hàng tồn kho bình quân và thu hồi vốn đầu tư bằng tiền mặt ban đầu trong vòng 36 tháng.

Công ty nắm quyền kiểm soát 84.400 lô đất vào cuối năm, bao gồm 58.200 lô đất thuộc sở hữu và 26.200 lô đất được kiểm soát thông qua các hợp đồng mua. Số lô đất hoàn thiện thuộc sở hữu đã giảm 16% so với quý trước xuống còn 8.100 lô, hầu hết đều đã ký hợp đồng bán.

Forestar có 21.500 lô đất thuộc sở hữu đã được ký hợp đồng, được đảm bảo bởi khoảng 200 triệu USD tiền đặt cọc không hoàn lại. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các hợp đồng này dự kiến sẽ tạo ra 2,2 tỷ USD doanh thu trong tương lai. 18.600 lô đất thuộc sở hữu khác thuộc quyền ưu tiên chào bán trước cho D.R. Horton.

D.R. Horton tiếp tục là khách hàng lớn nhất của Forestar. Trong năm tài chính 2026, 14% số nhà bắt đầu khởi công của D.R. Horton nằm trên các lô đất do Forestar phát triển. Forestar cũng đã bán 1.916 lô đất, tương đương 14% sản lượng hàng năm, cho các khách hàng ngoài D.R. Horton, bao gồm các khoản bán cho hơn 25 nhà thầu xây dựng nhà ở và tám khách hàng mới.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết nguồn cung nhà thầu và vật liệu vẫn ổn định, trong khi chi phí phát triển và thời gian chu kỳ vẫn duy trì ổn định bất chấp sự chậm trễ tiếp diễn liên quan đến cơ quan nhà nước. Forestar đang ưu tiên các dự án nhỏ hơn, có tốc độ quay vòng nhanh hơn, các thị trường thiếu hụt nguồn cung và các khu phát triển cung cấp nhiều loại sản phẩm.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Đối với năm tài chính 2027, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến:

• Doanh thu đạt từ 1,4 tỷ USD đến 1,5 tỷ USD.
• Số lượng lô đất bàn giao đạt từ 12.000 đến 13.000 lô.
• Đầu tư khoảng 1,3 tỷ USD vào việc mua lại và phát triển quỹ đất, trong đó phần lớn vốn được phân bổ cho hoạt động phát triển.
• Quy mô nhân sự tương đối ổn định.
• Quý đầu tiên sẽ là quý thấp nhất về số lượng lô đất bàn giao và doanh thu, với kết quả nửa cuối năm dự kiến sẽ vượt nửa đầu năm.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sẽ tiếp tục điều chỉnh các giai đoạn dự án và tiến độ đầu tư theo nhu cầu hiện tại, đồng thời cân bằng giữa tốc độ bán hàng và định giá để tối đa hóa hiệu suất lợi nhuận của dự án.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

Khả năng chi trả nhà ở vẫn bị hạn chế do lãi suất thế chấp ở mức cao, trong khi tâm lý người tiêu dùng thận trọng đang đè nặng lên nhu cầu nhà ở mới. Các nhà thầu đang sử dụng biện pháp hỗ trợ hạ lãi suất thế chấp, nhưng họ cũng đang rút ngắn chu kỳ xây dựng và quản lý chặt chẽ hơn hàng tồn kho nhà ở và lô đất đã hoàn thiện, làm ảnh hưởng đến thời điểm và sản lượng bán lô đất của Forestar.

Sự sụt giảm biên lợi nhuận trong quý 4 cũng làm nổi bật những rủi ro về mặt thực thi cụ thể tại các dự án và rủi ro quy định. Forestar đã ghi nhận 7,6 triệu USD khoản suy giảm giá trị tại hai dự án và phát sinh thêm các chi phí pháp lý, xử lý nước mưa và bảo trì khi đóng cửa một khu phát triển khác.

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến giá bán trung bình theo quý sẽ biến động theo cơ cấu địa lý và kích thước lô đất. Sự chậm trễ từ phía cơ quan nhà nước vẫn là một rào cản vận hành khác, mặc dù thời gian chu kỳ phát triển vẫn duy trì ổn định trong năm tài chính 2026.

Tóm tắt phiên hỏi đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết để đạt được mục tiêu chung là một phần ba số nhà của D.R. Horton được xây dựng trên các lô đất do Forestar phát triển, Forestar cần mở rộng nhanh hơn về mặt địa lý. Forestar hiện hoạt động tại 65 thị trường, so với khoảng 130 thị trường của D.R. Horton, và dự kiến việc mở rộng sang phía Tây sẽ hỗ trợ tiến độ trong năm tài chính 2027 và năm tài chính 2028.

Khi được hỏi về việc phân bổ vốn, ban lãnh đạo cho biết tái đầu tư vào hoạt động kinh doanh vẫn là ưu tiên hàng đầu so với việc mua lại cổ phiếu. Forestar có kế hoạch đầu tư khoảng 1,3 tỷ USD trong năm tài chính 2027 mặc dù nắm giữ 657 triệu USD tiền mặt không bị hạn chế vào cuối năm.

Ban lãnh đạo cũng báo cáo sự gia tăng các cơ hội M&A tiềm năng trong nửa sau của quý 4. Các cơ hội này chủ yếu liên quan đến các nhà phát triển/thầu xây dựng tư nhân muốn hiện thực hóa giá trị trước thời kỳ mà ban lãnh đạo mô tả là môi trường vận hành có thể khó khăn hơn.

Về biên lợi nhuận, ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh rằng biên lợi nhuận bán lô đất cốt lõi, không bao gồm bán các khu đất lớn và chi phí suy giảm giá trị, đạt 21% trong năm tài chính 2026 so với 21,3% của năm trước. Công ty cũng cho biết hoạt động phát triển quỹ đất giảm và khả năng cung ứng nhà thầu cải thiện có thể tạo ra cơ hội giảm chi phí trực tiếp nếu áp lực lạm phát hạ nhiệt.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Forestar's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the call over to Chris Hibbetts, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations for Forestar.

Chris Hibbetts

Thank you, Matthew. Good morning, and welcome to the call to discuss Forestar's fourth quarter and fiscal year results. Thank you for joining us.

Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although Forestar believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to Forestar on the date of this conference call, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements publicly. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in Forestar's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our earnings release is available on our website at investor.forestar.com, and we plan to file our 10-K in the next few weeks.

After this call, we will post an updated investor presentation to our Investor Relations site under Events and Presentations for your reference. Now I will turn the call over to Andy Oxley, our President and CEO.

Anthony Oxley

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. I'm also joined on the call today by Jim Allen, our Chief Financial Officer; and Mark Walker, our Chief Operating Officer.

Before discussing our fourth quarter and fiscal year results, I want to recognize Don Tomnitz. As announced in yesterday's press release, Don will retire as Executive Chairman of Forestar effective October 31. His leadership has played a vital role in shaping the company's strategic direction and driving its significant growth. We are deeply grateful for his dedicated service and many contributions, and we wish him all the best in retirement.

Now turning to the results. The Forestar team had a solid finish to the fiscal year, generating over $580 million of revenue in the fourth quarter and $1.6 billion for the full year within our most recent guidance range. Ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continue to weigh on new home sales and higher mortgage interest rates added further pressure during the quarter. Despite these challenges, we increased our book value per share by 8% to $37.56 at year-end and further strengthened our balance sheet, ending the year with $1.3 billion of liquidity while continuing to position us to achieve our long-term objectives.

Over the last 5 years, we have invested more than $7 billion in land acquisition and development and delivered approximately 75,000 finished lots to local, regional, and national homebuilders. During the same period, our book value per share increased 83%. These results reflect the strength of our business model and teams that we have built across our national footprint.

For fiscal 2027, we will continue to allocate capital prudently, manage inventories efficiently and focus on generating solid returns to strengthen our market-leading presence in the highly fragmented lot development industry. With a differentiated combination of financial resilience, deep expertise, and a substantial operating platform, we are well equipped to supply homebuilders with the finished lots they need while successfully navigating current market dynamics.

Jim will now discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 financial returns in more detail.

James Allen

Thank you, Andy. In the fourth quarter, net income attributable to Forestar was $59.2 million or $1.15 per diluted share on revenue of $580.8 million. Fourth quarter revenue includes $38.7 million in tract sales and other revenue. For the year, net income attributable to Forestar was $142.6 million or $2.78 per diluted share on $1.6 billion of revenue, which includes $129.1 million of tract sales and other revenue. We sold 5,004 lots during the quarter, bringing our total lots sold for the full fiscal year to 13,545. Our average sales price was $108,300 for the quarter and $111,200 for the year. We expect continued quarterly fluctuations in our average sales price based on the geographic location and lot size mix of the lots we sell.

Our gross profit margin for the fourth quarter was 17.8% compared to 22.3% for the same quarter of fiscal 2025. This quarter's margin was reduced by higher costs to close out one project due to increased regulatory compliance requirements as well as $7.6 million of real estate impairment charges related to two projects. Excluding these items, our gross profit margin would have been 20.8%. Our gross profit margin for the year was 19.7%. Excluding those same items, our full year gross profit margin would have been 20.8%.

Our fourth quarter pretax income was $78.6 million, and our pretax profit margin was 13.5%. Pretax income for the year totaled $192.1 million, and our pretax profit margin this year was 11.7%. Pretax income and profit margin for the quarter and the year were reduced by the items I just mentioned and partially offset by a $10 million gain on sale of assets in the fourth quarter. Chris?

Chris Hibbetts

SG&A expense for the fourth quarter decreased 10% to $38.4 million, representing 6.6% of revenue. The decline compared to the same quarter in fiscal 2025 was largely driven by lower headcount and variable compensation. For the year, SG&A expense decreased 2% to $151 million or 9.2% of revenue. We remain focused on managing SG&A efficiently while maintaining strong teams across our national footprint to support future growth. We expect headcount to remain relatively flat in fiscal 2027. Mark?

Mark Walker

Ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continue to weigh on new home demand. Buydown incentives offered by builders are helping to bridge the affordability gap. However, recent increases in mortgage rates are further constraining affordability. Meanwhile, homebuilders remain focused on shortening cycle times and efficiently managing their inventory of homes and finished lots, which is affecting the timing and volume of finished lot purchases. Our primary focus remains developing lots for new homes at prices for entry-level and first-time buyers, which is the largest segment of the new home market.

However, we maintain the flexibility to pursue projects targeting other segments of the new home market as well as those offering multiple product types. Availability of contractors and necessary materials remain solid. Land development costs have been stable, which have been helped by our team actively working with trade partners on project costs and taking advantage of less land development activity occurring across the industry. We have also seen stable cycle times despite continued governmental delays. Our teams utilize best management practices and work closely with our trade partners to develop lots to drive operational efficiency. Jim?

James Allen

D.R. Horton is our largest and most important customer. In fiscal 2026, 14% of the homes D.R. Horton started were on a Forestar-developed lot. With a mutually stated goal of one out of every three homes D.R. Horton sells to be on a lot developed by Forestar, we have a significant opportunity to grow our share of their business.

We also continue to expand our relationships with other homebuilders. In fiscal 2026, we sold 1,916 lots or 14% of our total to customers other than D.R. Horton. This includes 146 lots sold to a lot banker who expects to sell those lots to D.R. Horton at a future date. Excluding those lots, sales to other homebuilders were the highest percentage of our annual lot sales since 2018. We sold lots to more than 25 different homebuilders this year, including eight new customers. Chris?

Chris Hibbetts

Our underwriting criteria for new development projects remains unchanged at a minimum 15% pretax return on average inventory and a return of our initial cash investment within 36 months. During the fourth quarter, we invested $299 million in land acquisition and development. And for the full year, we invested $1.3 billion. For both the fourth quarter and full year, approximately 80% of our investment was for development and 20% was for land. In fiscal 2027, we currently expect to invest approximately $1.3 billion in land acquisition and development.

For new investments, we are prioritizing projects that are in undersupplied markets, smaller and faster turning or offer multiple product types. For land development, we are aligning our investment pace with current demand through disciplined project phasing and subphasing. As industry-wide development activity slows and higher rates pressure homebuilders and developers, our ongoing commitment to both new and existing projects keeps us well positioned to deliver finished lots to the market. Mark?

Mark Walker

Our lot position at September 30 was 84,400 lots, of which 58,200 or 69% are owned and 26,200 or 31% are controlled through purchase contracts. Of our owned lots, 8,100 are finished, down 16% from the third quarter. Majority of our finished lots are under contract to be sold. Consistent with our focus on capital efficiency, we target owning a three- to four-year supply of land and lots and manage our development phases to deliver finished lots at a pace that matches market demand.

At year-end, 21,500 or 37% of our owned lots were under contract to sell. Approximately $200 million of hard earnest money deposits secure these contracts, which are expected to generate $2.2 billion of future revenue. Our contracted backlog supports our ability to continue gaining market share. Another 18,600 lots or 32% of our owned lots are subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton based on executed purchase and sale agreements. Jim?

James Allen

We have significant liquidity and are using modest leverage to keep our balance sheet strong. We ended the year with $1.3 billion of liquidity, including $657 million of unrestricted cash and $658 million of available capacity on our undrawn revolving credit facility.

Total debt at September 30 was $794 million with no senior note maturities until fiscal 2028, and our net debt-to-capital ratio was 6.7%. Stockholders' equity at year-end was $1.9 billion, and our book value per share increased 8% from a year ago to $37.56.

Forestar's capital structure is one of our biggest competitive advantages and sets us apart from other land developers. Project-level land acquisition and development loans are less available today and continue to be more expensive, which affects the majority of our competitors. Those loans are generally more restrictive, carry floating rates and create administrative complexity, particularly in a higher interest rate environment. Our capital structure provides us with financial and operational flexibility, and our strong liquidity positions us to take advantage of attractive opportunities when they arise. Andy, I will now turn it back to you for closing remarks.

Anthony Oxley

Thanks, Jim. Fiscal 2026 was a solid year for Forestar. We generated $1.6 billion of revenue and grew book value per share by 8%. We continue to execute our strategy by investing in land acquisition and development across our broad operating platform. We also strengthened our balance sheet, ending the year with $1.3 billion of liquidity.

Thank you to all of the Forestar team members for your continued efforts this year. As we look forward to fiscal 2027, based on current market conditions, we expect to deliver between 12,000 and 13,000 lots and to generate $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion of revenue. Similar to fiscal 2026, we currently expect our first quarter will be our lowest lot delivery and revenue quarter of the year, and we expect our lot deliveries and revenues in the second half of fiscal 2027 to be higher than the first half. We are closely monitoring each market as we strive to balance pace and price to maximize returns for each project.

Forestar has consistently demonstrated its ability to navigate changing market conditions. While we expect home affordability constraints and cautious homebuyers to remain near-term headwinds for new home demand, we are confident in the long-term demand for finished lots and our ability to gain market share in the highly fragmented lot development industry. We are well positioned for continued success with our portfolio across our diverse national footprint, operating expertise and strong balance sheet. Matthew, at this time, we'll open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Ryan Gilbert from BTIG.

Phần hỏi đáp

Ryan Gilbert

I'm wondering if you could talk in a little more detail about how you plan to achieve the mutually stated goal of 1/3 of D.R. Horton's deliveries on Forestar lots and maybe some specific levers that you can pull in '27 or '28 to make progress towards that goal. It just seems like if you're going to do 12,000 to 13,000 lot sales in '27, that's a deeper year-over-year decline than what Horton is guiding to currently.

Anthony Oxley

Thanks, Ryan. We have made significant progress on that 1/3 in a lot of markets. It's just that they're in so many more markets than we are. We're in 65 markets and they're in around 130. So overall, we have to grow at a faster pace than they grow, which has been a challenge. But as we've scaled up the organization, particularly with our growth out West, we think we can make meaningful progress in '27 and into '28.

Ryan Gilbert

Okay. Got it. And then just on the cash balance, $650 million. Can you talk about how you're thinking about deploying that into land versus potentially strategic opportunities or even buying back the stock, given where it's trading?

James Allen

Yes, Ryan. So we're still planning to invest $1.3 billion in land and development. The majority of that will be in development for fiscal '27. As far as stock buybacks, it's not that the current stock price isn't compelling. We just believe that the highest priority for our cash is to reinvest in the business and the long-term growth opportunity that this company has.

Ryan Gilbert

Okay. Understood. And then last one for me, just given the weakening in the end market, the housing market over the last few months, are you seeing any distressed opportunities start to emerge in any of the markets that you're operating and that could be a potential opportunity to deploy that cash? When we had talked, I think probably coming up on five or six months ago now, it seemed like there was pretty limited opportunities on the distressed front.

Mark Walker

We are seeing more opportunities pick up, particularly in the back half of the quarter. We're reviewing each of those opportunities as they present themselves, and we think that there will be more opportunities as the year persists.

Ryan Gilbert

Any detail that you could provide there? I'm wondering if maybe you're seeing some opportunities come out of the land banking competition.

Anthony Oxley

Haven't really seen it out of the land banking competition. I think it's more around private builder developers that are looking at what happened in '26 and what the forecast is for '27. And they're looking for ways to unlock the value of their organizations that they've built, understanding that the next year or longer may be a rougher environment.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is coming from Paul Przybylski from Wolfe Research.

Paul Przybylski

To start off, I was wondering, could you frame the gross margin degradation between, maybe higher input costs or some better pricing you may have to offer your customers?

James Allen

The lower gross margin in the quarter was really caused by a couple of unusual factors. We had two impairments in the quarter for $7.6 million. And then the closeout of another project that had additional costs for legal and regulatory requirements around on-site stormwater remediation and maintenance. Those two things together really -- if you exclude those, our gross profit would be 20.8%. And really within kind of our normalized gross margin that we've seen for the last several years between 20% and 23%.

Anthony Oxley

We really haven't seen increases in costs. Earlier in the year, we actually had started to see some decreases in certain components. I think those in the second half of the year were largely offset by some other increases, particularly related to fuel. But really, pricing has been pretty stabilized and contractor availability definitely has improved.

Mark Walker

And couple that with the reduced land development activity, I think that there will be some opportunities if the inflationary pressures can be reduced to decrease our cost structures, direct costs.

James Allen

I think one other point, too, if you just look at our core lot sales margin, which excludes tract sales and impairments for the year was at 21% compared to 21.3% last year. So we really haven't seen a significant decrease in that core lot sales margin.

Paul Przybylski

Okay. Okay. You mentioned the West being an opportunity to increase your share with Horton to get closer to that 1/3 goal. But that has kind of been one of the weaker demand regions. Do you go ahead and purchase lots now? Or do you kind of sit on the sidelines and wait until that market stabilizes so you can get a better understanding on your underwriting?

Anthony Oxley

So we're focused on our smaller, quicker turning deals. We're not looking to do really large projects. And particularly where the Horton team has a great pipeline, we're able to open up and very efficiently start to expand in those markets. And we've seen that have good success over the last couple of years that we'll continue with that program.

Mark Walker

The other thing, too, is we have a very robust pipeline. So it's allowing us to select investments that really fit our model. That's something that we're seeing as well.

Paul Przybylski

Okay. And just my last one, to follow up back up on the cost. You really hadn't seen oil, I guess, pricing flow through much in '26. But are you getting surcharges or any increases in '27 that might be a headwind for your margin?

Mark Walker

We are not seeing today any material impact of that. A lot of that's due to, again, reduced land developer activity, and we're seeing more contractor availability. So the more contractors we have, the better projects. So we're really pushing back on that to the extent that we can. And our teams are working with our trade partners day in, day out to find ways to reduce cost. And if that was to come through, it takes us 12 months to put a lot on the ground. So it's going to take some time for those higher costs to work their way through.

Operator

That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Andy for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Anthony Oxley

Thank you, Matthew, and thank you to everyone on the Forestar team for your focus and hard work. As we enter fiscal 2027, continue to stay disciplined, flexible and opportunistic while focusing on consolidating market share. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again in January to share our first quarter results.

Operator

Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.