Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của Central Pacific Financial (CPF): NIM mở rộng, EPS đạt $0.88

Điểm tin chính

• Central Pacific Financial Corp. đã báo cáo lợi nhuận ròng quý 3/2026 đạt 22,8 triệu USD, tương đương 0,88 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng, tăng từ mức 20,8 triệu USD và 0,80 USD ở quý trước.
• Thu nhập lãi thuần tăng 2,6% so với quý trước và tăng 5,2% so với cùng kỳ năm trước lên 64,5 triệu USD. Biên lãi thuần (NIM) mở rộng lên 3,62%, tăng 5 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước và tăng 13 điểm cơ bản so với cùng kỳ năm trước.
• Tổng dư nợ cho vay đạt 5,31 tỷ USD, nhìn chung ổn định so với quý trước. Các khoản giải ngân mới có lãi suất bình quân trọng số là 6,26%, so với 5,72% của dư nợ tất toán.
• Tổng tiền gửi đạt 6,66 tỷ USD, giảm 0,5% so với quý trước nhưng tăng 1,3% so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Mức giảm 49,2 triệu USD tiền gửi có kỳ hạn chi phí cao đã giúp duy trì chi phí tiền gửi bình quân tổng thể ở mức 0,90%.
• Chất lượng tài sản tiếp tục duy trì ở mức tốt. Tài sản nợ xấu giảm xuống 14 triệu USD, tương đương 0,19% tổng tài sản, trong khi tỷ lệ nợ nhóm cần chú ý cải thiện xuống 1,81% từ mức 2,34%.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến biên lãi thuần trong quý 4/2026 sẽ nằm trong khoảng giữa 3,60% và thu nhập hoạt động khác đạt khoảng 13 triệu USD.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Dư nợ cho vay nhìn chung giữ ở mức ổn định, nhưng cơ cấu danh mục tiếp tục chuyển dịch sang thế chấp thương mại lãi suất thả nổi và cho vay xây dựng. Các mảng này đã thay thế cho vay thế chấp nhà ở, cho vay tiêu dùng và thế chấp bằng giá trị nhà lãi suất cố định có lợi suất thấp hơn, qua đó cải thiện vị thế lãi suất của ngân hàng.

Tổng số tiền giải ngân, không bao gồm hoạt động tín dụng tuần hoàn, đạt khoảng 229 triệu USD, so với 204 triệu USD dư nợ tất toán. Khoản giải ngân trong quý 3 được chia đều giữa Hawaii và lục địa Mỹ. Các khoản vay tại lục địa Mỹ chiếm 18% tổng dư nợ vào cuối quý.

Ban lãnh đạo đã ghi nhận khoảng 224 triệu USD từ 71 cơ hội cho vay dự kiến hoàn tất trong quý 4, đồng thời nhấn mạnh rằng danh mục chờ giải ngân này không phải là một dự báo. Tỷ lệ hơn một phần ba giá trị đó đã được ghi nhận trong tháng 10.

Hoạt động cho vay thế chấp nhà ở chỉ đạt khoảng một phần ba so với mức bình thường do lãi suất dài hạn duy trì ở mức cao. Ban lãnh đạo đang đánh giá mảng cho vay thế chấp bằng giá trị nhà như một phương án tiềm năng để giảm tỷ lệ tất toán, trong bối cảnh nhiều khách hàng vẫn duy trì các khoản thế chấp ưu tiên lãi suất thấp.

Cơ cấu tiền gửi đã cải thiện khi tiền gửi có kỳ hạn chi phí cao giảm 49,2 triệu USD. Điều này được bù đắp một phần nhờ mức tăng 15,7 triệu USD tiền gửi thanh toán có trả lãi và 21,6 triệu USD số dư tiền gửi tiết kiệm và thị trường tiền tệ. Công ty báo cáo không có tiền gửi qua môi giới và mô tả nền tảng tiền gửi của mình là đa dạng, phân tán nhỏ lẻ và dựa trên mối quan hệ khách hàng.

Trong quý, CPF đã mua lại khoảng 294.000 cổ phiếu với giá 11,2 triệu USD, tương đương mức giá bình quân khoảng 38 USD/cổ phiếu. Hạn mức mua lại còn lại là 22 triệu USD. Hội đồng quản trị cũng đã tăng cổ tức bằng tiền mặt cho quý 4 thêm 3,3% lên 0,31 USD/cổ phiếu.

Định hướng của ban lãnh đạo

• Biên lãi thuần quý 4: Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng NIM sẽ nằm trong khoảng giữa 3,60%. Việc định giá lại tài sản tiếp tục mang lại tác động tích cực, nhưng lãi suất tiền gửi cao hơn có thể bù trừ một phần lợi ích này.
• Thu nhập hoạt động khác quý 4: Đạt khoảng 13 triệu USD, phụ thuộc vào biến động thị trường ảnh hưởng đến thu nhập từ bảo hiểm nhân thọ do ngân hàng sở hữu (BOLI).
• Chi phí hoạt động cả năm: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến mức tăng trưởng khoảng 2% đến 2,5%, ở mức thấp của khoảng định hướng trước đó. Chi phí quý 4 dự kiến sẽ tăng theo mùa do các khoản tiền thưởng và hoạt động cuối năm.
• Thuế suất hiệu dụng chuẩn hóa: Khoảng 22% đến 24%, với khả năng biến động từ thu nhập BOLI. Các khoản ưu đãi thuế bổ sung có thể có chưa được tính vào định hướng này.
• Hệ số nhạy cảm tiền gửi: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến hệ số nhạy cảm tổng tiền gửi khoảng 24%, hoặc khoảng 33% đối với tiền gửi có trả lãi.
• Tỷ lệ dư nợ cho vay trên tổng tiền gửi: Tỷ lệ hiện tại vào khoảng 80%, so với phạm vi mục tiêu của ban lãnh đạo là 80% đến 85%.
• Mua lại cổ phiếu: Ban lãnh đạo nhìn chung dự kiến nhịp độ mua lại cổ phiếu trong quý 4 tương đương với quý 3, tùy thuộc vào tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay, điều kiện hoạt động, định giá, AOCI và tỷ lệ vốn cổ phần phổ thông hữu hình.

Rủi ro và các điểm cần theo dõi

Lãi suất duy trì ở mức cao trong thời gian dài tiếp tục gây áp lực lên hoạt động cho vay thế chấp nhà ở và có thể làm tăng chi phí tiền gửi khi tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay mạnh lên. Khoảng 410 triệu USD chứng chỉ tiền gửi (CD), tương đương khoảng 40% danh mục CD, sẽ đáo hạn trong quý 4. Mức lãi suất tất toán bình quân trọng số của các khoản này là khoảng 2,7%, so với mức lãi suất mới tổng hợp ước tính khoảng 3,0%.

Thu nhập BOLI và chi phí bồi thường hoãn lại vẫn nhạy cảm với sự biến động của thị trường chứng khoán. Ban lãnh đạo cũng đang theo dõi sát sao hơn tín dụng tiêu dùng do các điều kiện kinh tế vĩ mô và lãi suất ở mức cao.

Các rủi ro khác được ghi nhận bao gồm xung đột địa chính trị, giá dầu, lạm phát, điều kiện du lịch và hoạt động bão gia tăng tại Hawaii. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết ảnh hưởng từ các trận bão gần đây chỉ mang tính cục bộ và không gây ra tác động đáng kể nào đến công ty hoặc khách hàng.

Các điểm nổi bật trong phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết hoạt động cho vay tại lục địa Mỹ đóng vai trò bổ sung chứ không thay thế cho thị trường Hawaii. Giải ngân từ đầu năm đến nay đạt khoảng 380 triệu USD tại Hawaii và 310 triệu USD tại lục địa Mỹ, mặc dù lượng tất toán ở Hawaii vẫn cao hơn vì đây là danh mục lớn hơn.

Công ty đang ưu tiên hiệu quả kinh tế của khoản vay hơn là tăng trưởng quy mô bảng cân đối kế toán, tập trung vào việc định giá tốt hơn, kỳ hạn ngắn hơn, đa dạng hóa và lựa chọn tín dụng có kỷ luật. Dòng tiền từ chứng khoán hàng quý đạt khoảng 30 triệu USD, với các khoản mua mới mang lại mức gia tăng lợi suất từ 225 đến 250 điểm cơ bản. Lượng cho vay tất toán hàng quý đạt khoảng 200 triệu USD, với lợi suất thay thế cao hơn khoảng 50 đến 60 điểm cơ bản.

Ban lãnh đạo dự báo tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay ròng mạnh hơn sẽ đòi hỏi phải huy động thêm tiền gửi, điều này có thể đồng nghĩa với việc chi phí tiền gửi hiện tại đang ở gần vùng đáy. Tuy nhiên, công ty kỳ vọng sự tăng trưởng nguồn vốn này vẫn mang lại hiệu quả gia tăng giá trị.

Xu hướng tín dụng đã cải thiện trong quý. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết 91% nợ nhóm cần chú ý được bảo đảm bằng bất động sản với tỷ lệ cho vay trên giá trị tài sản (LTV) an toàn, trong khi danh mục cho vay tiêu dùng vẫn là mảng chính cần chú ý thêm.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Central Pacific Financial Corp. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay shortly after its completion on the company's website at www.cpb.bank.

I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Jayrald Rabago, Senior Strategic Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Jayrald Rabago

Thank you, Erica, and thank you all for joining us today to review Central Pacific Financial Corp.'s financial results for the third quarter of 2026. Joining me this morning are Arnold Martines, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; David Morimoto, Vice Chair and Chief Operating Officer; Ralph Mesick, Vice Chair; Dayna Matsumoto, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Anna Hu, Executive Vice President and Chief Credit Officer.

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that our earnings release and supplemental slides are available on our Investor Relations website at ir.cbb.bank. During today's call, management may make forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. For a complete discussion of these risks, please refer to Slide 2 of our presentation.

With that, I will turn the call over to our Chairman, President and CEO, Arnold Martines.

Arnold Martines

Thank you, Jayrald, and hello to everyone joining us today. We delivered solid third quarter results driven by higher net interest income, disciplined expense management and continued balance sheet strength.

Our net interest margin expanded, supported by higher earning asset yields and stable deposit costs. Diluted earnings per share rose 21% compared with last year's third quarter results, which were adjusted to exclude onetime expenses.

Our performance reflects the resilience of our relationship-focused banking model and provides a sound foundation as we move into the fourth quarter. Our strategy remains focused on delivering sustainable returns as a high-performing bank while supporting our customers, communities and shareholders.

We continue to invest in talent, automation and data capabilities to support future operating efficiencies. At the same time, continued productivity gains and thoughtful resource allocation are helping us generate positive operating leverage.

Turning to the broader environment. Hawaii's economy remains resilient despite slower growth in the recent months due to storm-related travel disruptions. Through the first 8 months of 2026, visitor arrivals increased 1.8% and spending rose 4.1% compared with the prior year. Hawaii's unemployment rate remained low at 2.8% in September compared with 4.2% nationally.

Statewide nonfarm employment increased by 1,300 jobs year-over-year, including 700 jobs added in the construction industry, which continues to be a bright spot in the Hawaii economy. We continue to monitor external risks, including the geopolitical conflict and effects on oil prices, inflation and visitors to our state as well as impacts from the elevated storm activity Hawaii is experiencing this year.

We are committed to supporting our community as restoration and cleanup efforts continue. Overall, impacts were fortunately isolated, and we don't see any material impacts on our business or our customers.

With that, I will turn the call over to Dayna.

Dayna Matsumoto

Thank you, Arnold. We are pleased to report another solid quarter of earnings, reflecting the continued execution and diligence of our teams. For the third quarter, net income was $22.8 million or $0.88 per diluted share compared with $20.8 million or $0.80 per diluted share in the prior quarter.

Return on average assets was 1.22% and return on average equity was 15.28%. Our profitability metrics continue to trend favorably in line with our focus on high performance. Net interest income totaled $64.5 million for the quarter, up $1.6 million or 2.6% from the prior quarter and up $3.2 million or 5.2% from the year ago quarter.

Net interest margin increased 5 basis points from the prior quarter and 13 basis points from the year ago quarter to 3.62%. The sequential quarter increase in net interest income and margin was primarily driven by higher yields on loans and investment securities. Average loan yield increased 5 basis points to 5.01%, while the average rate paid on total deposits remained stable at 90 basis points. We continue to benefit from earning asset repricing and disciplined funding management.

Our balance sheet sensitivity position is neutral to slightly asset sensitive. Therefore, we are well positioned in the current rate environment. Fed rate hikes are modestly favorable as we've reduced our fixed rate asset exposures and we expect deposit pricing and betas to remain manageable.

For the fourth quarter, we expect NIM to be in the mid 3.60% range. Total other operating income was $12.4 million for the quarter compared with $14.6 million in the prior quarter. The sequential decrease was primarily due to a $2.4 million decline in our bank-owned life insurance income related to continued equity market volatility.

Total other operating expense was $44.8 million for the quarter compared with $46.2 million in the prior quarter. The sequential quarter decrease was primarily attributable to a $1.2 million reduction in salaries and employee benefits and a $1.0 million reduction in other expenses, both related to lower deferred compensation expenses driven by market volatility and offset by lower BOLI income.

The efficiency ratio improved to 58.3% from 59.6% in the prior quarter and continues to drive towards high performance with our ongoing focus on positive operating leverage. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 294,000 shares for $11.2 million at an average price of about $38 per share.

At quarter end, $22 million remained available under our share repurchase authorization. Given our strong earnings, the Board increased the fourth quarter cash dividend by 3.3% to $0.31 per share. We continue to maintain a healthy capital position and remain committed to optimizing capital to enhance long-term shareholder value.

I will now turn the call over to Ralph.

Ralph Mesick

Thank you, Dayna. We continue to focus our lending activities on strengthening the earnings profile of the bank while maintaining pricing and credit discipline. We target good quality credit and emphasize sponsorship, structure and returns over volume.

Total loans ended the quarter at $5.31 billion, up approximately $5 million from the prior quarter and down approximately $54 million from a year ago. Average loans were essentially unchanged at $5.3 billion. While overall balances were relatively stable, portfolio mix continued to evolve, improving our interest rate position of our balance sheet.

As we've seen in previous quarters, growth in variable rate commercial mortgage and construction lending is replacing lower-yielding fixed rate residential mortgage, consumer and home equity loans. Funded production, excluding revolving activity, totaled approximately $229 million against $204 million of runoff. New production carried a weighted average rate of 6.26% compared with 5.72% on runoff balances, resulting in positive spread replacement.

From a geographic perspective, third quarter production was about 50% from Hawaii and 50% from the Mainland. At quarter end, Mainland loans represented 18% of total balances. Mainland balances increased by approximately $50 million during the quarter, while Hawaii balances declined by approximately $45 million.

In Hawaii, our emphasis remains on relationship-based lending that supports building deeper customer relationships. These types of relationships generate operating accounts and treasury management services as well as personal banking opportunities.

On the Mainland, we continue to selectively deploy excess funding, which will enhance portfolio diversification and increase risk-adjusted returns. Looking ahead, we are encouraged by pipeline activity. We have approximately $224 million in loan volume across 71 opportunities in the processing stages scheduled for fourth quarter closings.

I would emphasize that this represents scheduled pipeline activity rather than a forecast. The actual pull-through and timing of closings may differ, but we booked more than 1/3 of that production in dollars during the month of October.

Finally, we're well aware of the uncertainty and headwinds impacting the local and national economy, but continue to be biased towards business development and growth. We'll be intentional and disciplined in this pursuit, allocating capital to opportunities that strengthen the earnings power of the bank and the resilience of our balance sheet.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to David.

David Morimoto

Thank you, Ralph. Total deposits ended the quarter at $6.66 billion, down $31.9 million or 0.5% from the prior quarter and up $86.2 million or 1.3% from the prior year.

The quarterly decline was due to a $49.2 million reduction in higher cost time deposits. This was partially offset by growth of $15.7 million in interest-bearing demand deposits and $21.6 million in savings and money market balances.

On an average balance basis, noninterest-bearing deposits increased $10.9 million, while savings and money market balances increased $39.2 million, reflecting our continued focus on primary operating accounts and deeper customer relationships.

Our deposit franchise continues to reflect the strength of our consumer, business and international relationships. Deposits remain well diversified and granular, supported by long-tenured customers, low reliance on public time deposits and no broker deposits. We also continue to invest in the customer experience and operating efficiency across our digital, branch, data and operations platforms.

Recent work on our customer relationship management and data platform initiatives are strengthening service, insight and scalability. Our focus remains on new customer acquisition, increasing primary relationships and connecting our full range of capabilities to serve customers more fully.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Anna.

Anna Hu

Thank you, David. Asset quality remained strong at quarter end. Nonperforming assets declined to $14 million or 19 basis points of total assets, while net charge-offs remained flat at $2.7 million or 20 basis points of average loans.

Criticized loan ratio improved to 181 basis points of total loans from 234 basis points in the prior quarter. 91% of criticized loans are real estate secured with strong loan-to-value ratios. The allowance for credit losses was $59.8 million or 1.13% of total loans, relatively stable from 1.14% in the prior quarter. The provision for credit losses totaled $1.9 million for the quarter.

Overall, our credit quality remains strong with our lending and credit risk strategy focused on diversification, consistent underwriting standards, strong collateral and on stable segments and industries that we have solid expertise in.

I will now turn the call back to Arnold for closing comments.

Arnold Martines

Thank you, Anna. To summarize, we are pleased with our third quarter earnings performance, which continued to trend favorably and reflect the strong execution of our team. These results position us to serve our customers well, support prudent growth and navigate the ongoing market uncertainties with discipline.

I want to thank our employees for their continued commitment to our customers and our communities. Thank you also to our customers, shareholders and our broader community for your ongoing support. We are now happy to answer your questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of David Feaster with Raymond James.

Phần hỏi đáp

David Feaster

I wanted to start on the growth side. It sounds like demand is holding up well. Pipelines are doing all right, and it sounds like you're still pulling things through. I'm just curious, how is demand from your perspective? Like I mean, as you talk to your clients about higher rates, have you seen any shift in demand? Are you concerned at all about anything starting to fall out of the pipeline?

And then just touch on the paydown activity. It sounds like that's really been the biggest inhibitor to faster growth, but just wanted to get your sense on that side.

Ralph Mesick

Yes, David, this is Ralph. I would say in terms of the forecast, the best forecast we have right now is what we have in the pipeline and the pipeline looks fairly healthy. As you probably are aware, we do underwrite loans to the higher rate environment.

We also look at that relative to our asset monitoring of our portfolio. I would say in terms of activity, Mainland lending is really supplementing not replacing the Hawaii franchise. We generated, I think, about $380 million in production in Hawaii this year against about, say, $310 million in the Mainland. And then the runoff is greater in Hawaii because it's basically a larger portfolio.

David Feaster

Okay. And when I look at it, it's -- a lot of the runoff is in kind of the resi mortgage and home equity lines. Could you touch on the mortgage market and the housing market from your perspective? How much of that is intentional and strategic, just kind of optimizing the loan book and rotating towards more CRE and commercial? And just again, kind of how you're seeing pricing trending today?

David Morimoto

David, it's David. On the first mortgage side, residential mortgage, obviously, that faces a lot of headwinds just because of the rate environment. So no different than the rest of the industry. And with the recent rise in longer-term rates, it's going to continue to face headwinds.

I think it's running at about 1/3 of what it normally would have been running on as far as production and we expect that to continue. The home equity is a potential opportunity. It is a product that we are taking a harder look at and seeing if there's opportunity to at least diminish the runoff, if not have some net growth in that portfolio.

As people have -- a lot of people have first mortgages at very low interest rates, they're not looking to refi that. So the way that they can access their equity is through the home equity product.

Ralph Mesick

I would add, David, that we're really trying to improve the economics of our loan portfolio, not really just pursuing balance sheet growth. So what you're going to see, I think, and what you've seen our priorities are better pricing, shorter duration, some diversification. And then I'd say continued sort of, I'd say, disciplined credit selection.

David Feaster

Okay. Okay. And maybe on the other side of the balance sheet, right? I mean, touching on funding, it's pretty impressive what you are able to do. I mean, reducing CDs, able to replace that with some core deposits, keep deposit costs flat. Could you just touch on how do you think about core deposit growth as we look forward? How pricing is trending and just kind of the competitive landscape for funding on the islands?

David Morimoto

David, it's David again. First off, I want to thank the teams. The teams have been doing an exceptional job with continuing to build core deposits, and that's what's led us to be able to keep -- to manage deposit costs over time. I think as we look forward, we are expecting strengthening loan growth, net loan growth and as a result, that likely will cause total deposit costs to -- this might be a trough going forward.

If we start to see loan growth, we'll look to start growing our deposits and that may result in slight increases in total deposit costs. Having said all of that, that is what we're looking to do, and that will be accretive growth. So I would think that's how we're looking at the deposit side. We've been very deliberate about our managing of our deposit base because of the lack -- not lack, but the minimal amount of loan growth. But going forward, we think that's going to change.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler.

Matthew Clark

Just along those lines, maybe, Dayna, if you had the spot rate on deposits at the end of September. And just thinking through the beta, assuming we get maybe a rate hike in December and March. I think on the way down, you were about 35% for interest-bearing. Do you think you can kind of -- do you think you do something similar? Or do you think you can do a little better than that on the way up?

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure. Matthew, thanks for the question. On the spot rate for the month of September, our total deposit cost was 91 basis points, so starting to tick up slightly there. As far as the betas, we believe we can manage the deposit repricing beta in a favorable range, similar to what we've experienced in the last couple of cycles. So I'm expecting a total deposit beta of around 24% or about 33% on total interest-bearing deposits. Our depositors are relationship-based, sticky and generally less rate sensitive overall. So I feel good that we can manage the beta in a reasonable range.

Matthew Clark

Great. And then just on the CD side, down this quarter. It sounded like some of it was higher cost. Can you just update us on the amount of CDs you have maturing here in the fourth quarter and the roll-off and roll-on rates that you anticipate?

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure. In the fourth quarter, we have about $410 million of CD maturity. That's about 40% of our portfolio. That's running off at a weighted average rate of about 2.7%. And I believe our new CD rates on a blended basis, I estimate it to be approximately 3.0%. So a nominal rise in our CD costs going forward, but we can manage through that.

Matthew Clark

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then on the fee and expense run rate, I apologize if I missed it in your prepared comments if you spoke to kind of a run rate going forward, but just trying to think of a normalized fee income and noninterest expense run rate for the fourth quarter when you kind of distill the BOLI noise.

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure, Matthew. On the fee income side, when we carve out that BOLI noise, like you said, our noninterest income continues to do well on the wealth side. Our teams have been successful there growing the business. Mortgage banking, though, will be under pressure in this current higher for longer rate environment.

So considering these factors, I'm expecting that our total other operating income to be generally flattish year-over-year, but it will depend on further market volatility impacting our BOLI. And then just for the fourth quarter, if you're looking at that specifically, probably in about the $13 million range.

And then on expenses, Matthew, our -- we continue to manage our expense base well. And like I said, our objective is to consistently deliver positive operating leverage. The guidance for the full year, I updated it to expect an increase of about 2% to 2.5% this year, which is on the low end of the range that I had previously guided to.

In the fourth quarter, we do typically see some seasonal step-up in expenses related to incentives and some other year-end activities. And then as you know, our deferred compensation expense continues to be volatile, but we assume that it will normalize in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Liesch with StoneX Financial.

Your next question comes from the line of Kelly Motta with KBW.

Kelly Motta

It was a nice clean quarter. I feel like most of mine have been taken at this point. I guess as you look ahead, it seems like growth has been a little bit more muted with more coming from the Mainland. I'm wondering if you can supplement kind of what you're seeing in natural Hawaii for maybe more Mainland growth coming on. I'm just wondering how you guys are viewing that portion of the business.

Ralph Mesick

Kelly, I think I got your question. You were a little soft, but I think right now, we're running about 50-50 between Hawaii and the Mainland. And I think just through this first month of the quarter, that's kind of the mix right now. So again, if we continue to run off some of the fixed rate long-duration assets, we're probably going to see fairly muted growth.

Kelly Motta

Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just a housekeeping item for Dayna. Dayna, do you have your expected tax rate? It came in a little higher than where it was for the quarter?

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure, Kelly. On the tax rate, so the increase this quarter was due to less tax-exempt BOLI income as well as higher pretax book income. Going forward, I would expect our normalized ETR to be around 22% to 24%. The BOLI income has been volatile, so that could impact it. And then I'll lastly note that we are evaluating some potential additional tax credits, which would be favorable to our tax rate. But right now, I'm not building it into the guidance.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Liesch with StoneX Financial.

Andrew Liesch

Okay. No, my question is really just on the margin guide. I mean I see the repricing engine that's still flowing through, hear the asset sensitivity or the modest asset sensitivity. So why wouldn't the guide be closer to the high 3.60s rather than the mid-3.60s?

Dayna Matsumoto

Andrew, it's Dayna. So on the go-forward margin, you're correct about the factors that are -- will be favorable to the margin going forward. We will continue to have the positive asset back book cash flow repricing benefits on both the loans and the securities.

And then our balance sheet sensitivity, as I noted earlier, is neutral to slightly asset sensitive. So there could be a slight net positive for us there. But I will note loan yields are going up. But on the deposit side, those rates will also be going up, offsetting some of those benefits.

So those are the factors that are kind of influencing our margin outlook. Yes, as we head into next year, I think there is more potential upside on the margin to the extent we are able to drive more loan growth and assuming that pricing remains rational, but we're not providing guidance for 2027 at this point.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Liam Coohill with Hovde Group.

Liam Coohill

So to touch on deposits one more time, great to see the replacement of some higher cost funding in the quarter for some lower cost core deposits. But I was wondering, is there a loan-to-deposit ratio you're targeting as we're thinking about potential loan growth in the future and funding that with deposits?

Dayna Matsumoto

Liam, this is Dayna. On the loan-to-deposit ratio, we're currently at about 80%. Our target range, I would say, is about 80% to 85%. So we're on the lower end of that. I think that gives us a lot of flexibility to grow the balance sheet, and we plan to do that in a profitable way.

Liam Coohill

That's very helpful. Let's jump to credit quickly. Are there any verticals where you're watching dynamics more closely? I mean it looks like credit improved pretty nicely in the quarter, but just curious if you have any thoughts there.

Anna Hu

I think -- Liam, this is Anna. Where we're primarily focused on is just paying attention a little bit more to the consumer market, just given the macroeconomic market conditions, the higher interest rates for longer. Yes, it's mostly the consumer side.

Liam Coohill

That makes sense. And final question for me, just more of a housekeeping item. Moving forward, do you expect share repurchases likely continue in your current levels?

Dayna Matsumoto

Liam, I can take that one. This is Dayna. So we do have the repurchase program with some authorization left, as I noted. This does give us flexibility, which we like. It's a low-risk source of value. But as I've said in prior quarters, the level of repurchases in any given quarter, it will continue to be dynamic and informed by several factors, including loan growth opportunities, the operating environment, other risk considerations, our valuation as well as we are watching our AOCI and TCE ratio. But with all of that said, as of now, I generally expect we will continue share repurchases at a roughly similar pace in the fourth quarter as we did in the third quarter.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler.

Matthew Clark

Since we're digging into the margin a little bit more there in the Q&A, Dayna, can you just remind us of the securities cash flows that are coming off the portfolio roll off and expected roll-on rates?

And then same thing on the loan side. I think the payoffs and new production, roughly, I think, a 50 basis point pickup there, but just also want to think through the back book repricing on the loan side.

Dayna Matsumoto

Sure, Matthew. On the securities portfolio, the cash flows on a quarterly basis is about $30 million a quarter. And we've been getting about, I'd say, 225 to 250 basis points yield pickup on our new securities purchases. On the loan portfolio, it's about $200 million in total quarterly runoff. And as you mentioned, it is being replaced at weighted average yields that are around 50 to 60 basis points higher.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Jayrald Rabago.

Jayrald Rabago

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your continued interest in Central Pacific Financial Corp. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.