Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của American Assets Trust (AAT): Nâng dự báo FFO

Điểm tin chính

• American Assets Trust đã báo cáo FFO quý 3 năm 2026 đạt 0,56 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng, cao hơn khoảng 0,05 USD so với dự báo nội bộ. Nếu không tính các khoản mục một lần, FFO đạt 0,53 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu.
• NOI tiền mặt cùng bất động sản trên toàn bộ danh mục đầu tư tăng 8,3% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Nếu không bao gồm các khoản hoàn thuế bất động sản và khoản thu từ nợ phải thu văn phòng đã trích lập dự phòng trước đó, mức tăng trưởng đạt 5,1%.
• Công ty đã nâng dự báo FFO cả năm 2026 lên mức 2,04 - 2,10 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng, với mức trung bình tăng 2% lên 2,07 USD.
• Hoạt động cho thuê văn phòng đã cải thiện lên khoảng 86%, tăng gần 400 điểm cơ bản so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và tăng 140 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước. Các hợp đồng cho thuê văn phòng đã ký kết nhưng chưa bắt đầu hiệu lực đại diện cho khoảng 12 triệu USD tiền thuê cơ sở tính theo năm.
• Mảng bán lẻ tiếp tục duy trì tỷ lệ cho thuê 98%, trong khi các bất động sản căn hộ nhiều gia đình tại San Diego (không bao gồm khu RV Park) đạt tỷ lệ cho thuê 97% và tỷ lệ lấp đầy 95%.
• Ban quản lý dự kiến chi phí vay sẽ tăng khi khoản nợ đáo hạn vào tháng 3 năm 2027 được tái cấp vốn và hợp đồng hoán đổi khoản vay có thời hạn hết hạn vào tháng 1, mặc dù công ty đã kết thúc quý 3 với khoảng 590 triệu USD thanh khoản.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Văn phòng

Danh mục văn phòng kết thúc quý 3 với tỷ lệ cho thuê đạt khoảng 86%. American Assets Trust đã hoàn tất cho thuê khoảng 124.000 foot vuông trong quý, với chênh lệch giá thuê tiền mặt so sánh được là 2,1% và chênh lệch theo phương pháp đường thẳng là 8,2%.

Công ty bước vào quý 4 với khoảng 210.000 foot vuông hợp đồng đã ký nhưng chưa có hiệu lực, đại diện cho khoảng 12 triệu USD tiền thuê cơ sở tính theo năm. Công ty cũng có 132.000 foot vuông đang trong quá trình lập hồ sơ cho thuê và các đề xuất đang chờ xử lý trên khoảng 178.000 foot vuông.

Tại La Jolla Commons Tower III, hai hợp đồng thuê toàn bộ tầng với tổng diện tích khoảng 41.000 foot vuông đang chờ ký kết, trong khi 3.600 foot vuông khác đang hoàn thiện hồ sơ. Nếu hoàn tất, bất động sản này sẽ đạt tỷ lệ cho thuê khoảng 72%. Ban quản lý cho biết giá thuê và tỷ suất sinh lời dự kiến vẫn nằm trong phạm vi định giá của mình.

Tại One Beach Street, các đề xuất đang được trao đổi đối với diện tích còn lại ở tầng hai. Việc hoàn tất sẽ nâng tỷ lệ cho thuê của bất động sản này lên 82%. Ban quản lý cho biết giá thuê đề xuất đang vượt kỳ vọng, nhưng nhấn mạnh rằng giao dịch vẫn chưa được thực hiện.

Bán lẻ

Danh mục bán lẻ duy trì tỷ lệ cho thuê 98%. AAT đã hoàn tất các hợp đồng cho thuê khoảng 108.000 foot vuông, tạo ra chênh lệch giá thuê tiền mặt so sánh được là 7,4% và chênh lệch theo phương pháp đường thẳng là 16,8%.

Tăng trưởng NOI mảng bán lẻ được hưởng lợi từ việc hoàn trả chi phí cao hơn, các hợp đồng thuê mới và sự mở rộng của người thuê tại các bất động sản bao gồm Alamo Quarry, Lomas Santa Fe và Gateway Marketplace. Ban quản lý mô tả danh sách người thuê cần theo dõi là ngắn nhưng vẫn tiếp tục giám sát áp lực tiêu dùng do lạm phát và lãi suất cao hơn.

Căn hộ nhiều gia đình

Không bao gồm khu RV Park, các khu dân cư của AAT tại San Diego đã kết thúc quý 3 với tỷ lệ cho thuê 97% và tỷ lệ lấp đầy 95%. Giá thuê hợp đồng mới và gia hạn đều tăng 4% trong quý.

Pacific Ridge đã phục hồi sau đợt biến động khách thuê theo mùa vào mùa hè, đạt tỷ lệ lấp đầy gần 97% so với 77% vào cuối quý 2 và 92% vào một năm trước đó. Hassalo on Eighth ở Portland đạt tỷ lệ cho thuê 92% và tỷ lệ lấp đầy 91%, với mức tăng trưởng giá thuê bình quân đi ngang.

Waikiki Beach Walk

Tỷ lệ lấp đầy của Embassy Suites tăng lên 88,5% từ mức 78,3% của một năm trước. RevPAR tăng 13,3% lên 337 USD, trong khi ADR tăng 0,2% lên 381 USD.

Ban quản lý cho rằng một phần mức tăng tỷ lệ lấp đầy là do các khách sạn đối thủ cạnh tranh đang trong quá trình cải tạo, giúp Embassy Suites thu hút thêm số đêm phòng. Công ty cảnh báo rằng tính bền vững của lợi ích này vẫn chưa chắc chắn.

Dự báo của Ban quản lý

AAT đã nâng dự báo FFO cả năm 2026 lên mức 2,04 - 2,10 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng so với mức 1,96 - 2,10 USD trước đó. Mức trung bình mới là 2,07 USD, cao hơn 2% so với mức trung bình trước đó là 2,03 USD.

Ban quản lý cho biết triển vọng này phản ánh hoạt động cho thuê, việc tăng giá thuê theo hợp đồng, quản lý chi phí, khoản hoàn thuế bất động sản và việc thu hồi khoản nợ phải thu văn phòng đã trích lập dự phòng trước đó. Khả năng kết quả đạt mức cận trên phụ thuộc vào việc các người thuê bán lẻ từng trích lập dự phòng đáp ứng nghĩa vụ trả tiền thuê, kết quả vượt trội ở mảng căn hộ nhiều gia đình và kết quả kinh doanh tốt hơn của Embassy Suites.

Đối với mảng cho thuê văn phòng, ban quản lý dự kiến danh mục đầu tư sẽ kết thúc năm 2026 với tỷ lệ cho thuê khoảng 84% - 86%, với giả định các giao dịch đang cân nhắc và hoạt động dự kiến khác được hoàn tất.

Trong số 12 triệu USD tiền thuê văn phòng tính theo năm từ các hợp đồng đã ký nhưng chưa có hiệu lực, ban quản lý dự kiến 35% sẽ bắt đầu vào quý 4 năm 2026 và khoảng 60% vào nửa đầu năm 2027, tập trung nhiều hơn vào quý 1. Phần còn lại dự kiến diễn ra sau đó, với một phần nhỏ kéo dài sang năm 2028.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Lạm phát dai dẳng và lãi suất dài hạn cao hơn đang gây áp lực lên chi phí vay, giá trị bất động sản và hoạt động giao dịch.
• Ban quản lý dự kiến chi phí tái cấp vốn sẽ tăng khi AAT xử lý khoản nợ đáo hạn vào tháng 3 năm 2027 và hợp đồng hoán đổi khoản vay có thời hạn hết hạn vào tháng 1.
• Tỷ lệ nợ thuần trên EBITDA vẫn ở mức cao hơn mục tiêu dài hạn của công ty là từ 5,5x trở xuống.
• Các hợp đồng cho thuê văn phòng lớn đang mất nhiều thời gian hơn để hoàn tất, đặc biệt là với các khách thuê am hiểu, có mức độ tín nhiệm cao và đội ngũ pháp lý của họ.
• Genentech đang bỏ trống khoảng 70.000 foot vuông tại Portland, và ban quản lý báo cáo vẫn chưa có triển vọng khách thuê nào cho ba tầng đó.
• Du lịch tại Oahu vẫn chưa đồng đều, sự cạnh tranh về giá phòng khách sạn vẫn tiếp diễn và tầm nhìn đặt phòng ngắn lại.
• Tỷ lệ chi trả cổ tức đã ở mức cao trong quý 3, một phần do khoản hoàn trả chi phí cải tạo không gian thuê lớn liên quan đến một hợp đồng thuê văn phòng được ký từ vài năm trước.

Điểm nổi bật trong phần Q&A với chuyên gia phân tích

• Nguồn dự án văn phòng tiềm năng: Ban quản lý bày tỏ sự tin tưởng rằng các hợp đồng cho thuê tại La Jolla Commons có thể sớm được thực hiện. Ban quản lý cũng lạc quan về One Beach Street nhưng nhấn mạnh rằng các đề xuất vẫn chưa tiến triển thành các hợp đồng đã ký kết.
• Thời điểm bắt đầu hiệu lực hợp đồng thuê: AAT không kỳ vọng có sự trì hoãn đáng kể vì phần lớn nguồn dự án liên quan đến việc xây dựng do chủ nhà kiểm soát hoặc công việc của người thuê có ngày bắt đầu cố định.
• Pha tăng trưởng mảng văn phòng: Ban quản lý xác định danh mục đầu tư ngoại ô Bellevue, bao gồm 14Acres và Timber Springs, là nguồn cải thiện tiềm năng về tỷ lệ lấp đầy và FFO lớn nhất còn lại trong số các tài sản tái phát triển của mình.
• Định giá bán lẻ: Tỷ lệ lấp đầy cao đang hỗ trợ mức chênh lệch giá thuê tích cực, mặc dù ban quản lý tiếp tục cân bằng giữa giá thuê, uy tín tín dụng của khách thuê và tỷ lệ lấp đầy.
• Tái cơ cấu dòng vốn: AAT có thể xem xét thoái vốn đối với khách sạn, khu RV Park hoặc bất động sản bán lẻ Walnut Creek. Ban quản lý cho biết bất kỳ giao dịch bán nào cũng phải tính đến thuế, chi phí giao dịch và dòng tiền bị mất, đồng thời sẽ không ép buộc thực hiện giao dịch.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the American Assets Trust, Inc.'s Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Meleana Leaverton, Associate General Counsel of American Assets Trust. Please go ahead.

Meleana Leaverton

Thank you, and good morning. The statements made on this earnings call include forward-looking statements based on current expectations, which statements are subject to risks and uncertainties discussed in the company's filings with the SEC. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as actual events could cause the company's results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

Yesterday afternoon, American Assets Trust's earnings release and supplemental information were furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K. Both are now available on the Investors section of its website, americanassetstrust.com. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Adam Wyll, President and CEO of American Assets Trust.

Adam Wyll

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We delivered a solid third quarter at American Assets Trust with encouraging operating results and continued progress on leasing across our portfolio. That performance came against a less predictable economic backdrop with long-term interest rates moving meaningfully higher and inflation proving more persistent than many had expected.

Despite these headwinds, the quarter demonstrated the durability of our high-quality coastal real estate and the strength of our vertically integrated operating platform. Periods like this reward patience and discipline and our approach of making measured decisions, allocating capital thoughtfully and maintaining a long-term perspective continues to serve us well.

For the third quarter, we generated $0.56 of FFO per diluted share, approximately $0.05 ahead of our internal projections. Portfolio-wide same-store cash NOI increased 8.3% for the quarter and is up 2.3% year-to-date. Quarterly growth was positive across all 4 operating segments with results benefiting in part from certain onetime items, primarily property tax refunds and the collection of a previously reserved office receivable.

Excluding those items, same-store cash NOI growth was 5.1%. Based on these results and our outlook for the balance of the year, we are raising our full year 2026 FFO guidance to $2.07 per share at the midpoint, a 2% increase from our prior midpoint.

Before turning to the portfolio, a word on the macro environment. Persistent inflation continues to put upward pressure on interest rates, affecting real estate owners through borrowing costs, asset values and transaction activity, and we are no exception.

Today, all of our debt is fixed rate or swapped to fixed with no maturities until March 2027. However, as we refinance that maturity and our term loan swap expires in January, we expect our borrowing costs to increase, and we'll reflect that in our 2027 outlook in February. We have ample liquidity and multiple avenues to address the maturity, allowing us to be deliberate about timing and execution.

At the same time, the underlying fundamentals of our real estate remain healthy. New construction starts across our property types are at or near historic lows in many of our markets and higher financing and construction costs make new development even harder to justify. That reinforces the long-term value of our coastal assets.

And while inflation pressures operating costs, contractual rent escalations, expense recoveries and more frequent repricing in our multifamily and hotel businesses help us offset those pressures. Turning to portfolio updates. Office touring and prospect activity held up well across our markets, particularly for well-located amenitized buildings backed by financially strong ownership. That is where we compete.

Larger leasing decisions can still take time, but our pipeline remains healthy. And so far, we have not seen the move in rates materially affect tenant decision-making. The fundamentals continue to vary by market. UTC and Del Mar Heights are among San Diego's most sought-after office submarkets with very limited new competitive supply.

San Francisco is benefiting from a more active technology and AI tenant base with growing demand for quality space. Bellevue is showing improving conditions in its best locations, and Portland remains more selective, but we continue to win more than our fair share of deals.

Across all 4 markets, leasing activity has been steady, and we're seeing consistent tenant interest in our properties. Our office portfolio ended the quarter approximately 86% leased, up nearly 400 basis points from a year ago and 140 basis points sequentially.

During Q3, we completed approximately 124,000 square feet of leasing with comparable cash rent spreads of 2.1% and straight-line spreads of 8.2%. We entered the fourth quarter with approximately 210,000 square feet of executed leases, representing about $12 million in annualized base rent that has not yet commenced.

Additionally, we have another 132,000 square feet in lease documentation and proposals outstanding on approximately 178,000 square feet. Our focus is on getting those signed leases paying rent while continuing to convert our pipeline into executed leases.

Our spec suite program is an important part of that leasing effort. Tenants increasingly want high-quality move-in ready space and our ability to deliver it helps shorten the leasing cycle. Since the beginning of 2024, 42% of our spec suite square footage has been pre-leased before construction was finished.

More than 50% has leased within 3 months of completing construction and more than 75% within 6 months. We'll take that batting average. At La Jolla Commons Tower III, we are out for signature as of this morning for 2 full floors totaling approximately 41,000 square feet with a high credit quality prospective tenant.

We're also in documentation for an additional 3,600 square feet on another floor. Assuming both leases are executed, the building would be approximately 72% leased. We expect to finalize both leases in the near future. This reflects the type of tenant demand we anticipated when we developed Tower III and with few competing large blocks of quality space in UTC, we like our positioning for the remaining space.

At One Beach Street in San Francisco, we are exchanging proposals on the remaining space on the second floor. If completed, that transaction would bring the property to 82% leased. The building's waterfront setting, distinctive character and quality have resonated with prospects.

The spec suites we built on the first and second floor are doing exactly what we hoped, helping convert touring activity into active proposal negotiations. In the North Waterfront submarket, home to One Beach Street vacancy is roughly 19%, well below the citywide rate of nearly 28%. Taken together, these negotiations represent meaningful progress towards stabilizing 2 of our most significant office investments.

To be clear, these transactions are not yet executed and remain subject to completion. Assuming they are completed as currently contemplated, along with our other expected leasing activity, we now anticipate ending 2026 between approximately 84% and 86% leased across our office portfolio.

The next step is getting these transactions finalized and converting our broader leasing activity into commenced rent and cash flow. Our retail portfolio continues to perform well, ending Q3 at 98% leased, consistent with the high occupancy levels we've sustained over time. With limited new retail construction, healthy demand for well-located space and our exposure to affluent established trade areas, we like the positioning of this portfolio.

During the quarter, we executed approximately 108,000 square feet of leases with comparable cash spreads of 7.4% and straight-line spreads of 16.8%. Tenant health is strong. Our watch list is short, and our leasing teams are pursuing opportunities to improve tenant mix and grow rents as space turns over.

Although we are watching the consumer closely, particularly as inflation and higher interest rates affect household budgets, these properties are important locations for our tenants and dependable sources of cash flow for AAT. As it relates to multifamily in San Diego, market-wide vacancy has begun to move lower and rent growth has returned to positive territory, encouraging signs following an extended period of new deliveries.

Excluding the RV Park, our San Diego communities ended the quarter 97% leased and 95% occupied with both renewal rents and new lease rents increasing 4% during Q3. Notably, Pacific Ridge rebounded from its seasonal summer turnover, ending Q3 nearly 97% occupied compared to 77% at the end of Q2 and 92% a year ago.

In Portland, Hassalo on Eighth operates in a competitive urban apartment market, although recent market data also points to improving absorption and a slowing construction pipeline. Hassalo ended the quarter 92% leased and 91% occupied with flat blended rent growth.

In both markets, our teams are focused on occupancy, retention and capturing improved rent growth as conditions normalize. It's worth mentioning that both our retail and multifamily portfolios achieved record average rental rates during the quarter.

At Waikiki Beach Walk, our Embassy Suites hotel performed better than we had anticipated for the quarter, even as Oahu works through a softer tourism environment. Visitor demand is uneven and rate competition is still a factor, particularly for more value-conscious travelers.

We are managing the hotel carefully, focusing on rate integrity, occupancy and expense control. The retail component of Waikiki Beach Walk provides stability and our fee simple ownership of this irreplaceable asset remains a meaningful advantage. For Q3, hotel RevPAR was 13% above last year, driven by occupancy, while average daily rate held steady.

Before wrapping up, a few comments on capital allocation, starting with our dividend. Our Board has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.34 per share payable on December 17 to shareholders of record as of December 10. Our dividend payout ratio was elevated in the third quarter, in part due to a large tenant improvement reimbursement tied to an office lease signed several years ago.

Much of our current office capital spending is concentrated in 2 areas: our spec suite program and tenant improvements on signed leases. Both support our leasing efforts and future rental income. We've also substantially completed our office amenity investments, which reduces our remaining capital commitments in that area.

As that spending moderates and recently signed leases begin paying cash rent, we expect dividend coverage to improve gradually. Our Board continues to monitor the payout ratio closely. On external growth, we continue to evaluate and underwrite potential acquisitions as well as opportunities to recycle capital from existing assets.

Higher rates may create more opportunities as owners work through debt maturities, although we have not yet seen transaction pricing fully adjust to the higher cost of capital.

Our bar remains high and any investment must offer compelling risk-adjusted returns and strengthen our portfolio over the long term. We have no need to force a transaction simply to get bigger. In closing, I'm encouraged by what we accomplished this quarter and the opportunities we have ahead of us.

We exceeded our projections, raised our full year guidance and advanced significant office leasing activity that if finalized, would put 2 of our major office investments meaningfully closer to stabilization. Our focus now is on converting that leasing momentum into cash flow while maintaining the operating and financial discipline that has served us well across cycles. I want to thank our entire team for their hard work and execution this quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob to review our financial results and updated outlook in more detail.

Robert Barton

Thanks, Adam, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday afternoon, we reported third quarter 2026 FFO of $0.56 per diluted share and net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.13 per diluted share. Excluding the onetime items Adam discussed earlier, primarily property tax refunds and the collection of a previously reserved office receivable, FFO would have been $0.53 per diluted share.

FFO increased $0.05 per diluted share compared to the second quarter, driven primarily by 4 items: approximately $0.02 per share from the collection of a previously reserved office receivable at COASTAL COLLECTION at Torrey Reserve, approximately $0.01 per share from property tax refunds at Waikele Center and Hassalo on Eighth.

Approximately $0.01 per share of outperformance from Embassy Suites at Waikiki Beach Walk, and approximately $0.01 per share from lower G&A. Turning to same-store cash NOI. The portfolio-wide results were strong. Same-store cash NOI increased 8.3% year-over-year. Excluding onetime items, growth was 5.1%. This distinction is important.

The 8.3% reflects the reported results, including the benefit of onetime items, while the 5.1% provides a clearer view of underlying operating performance. Let me briefly walk through the results by segment. For office, same-store cash NOI increased 7.9%. Excluding the collection of the previously reserved office receivable and the real estate tax refunds, growth would have been 4.8%, primarily reflecting higher base rent from recently commenced leases.

Retail same-store cash NOI increased 9.6%. Excluding real estate tax refunds, growth would have been 6.3%, driven by higher expense reimbursements at Alamo Quarry, higher base rents from new leases and tenant expansions at Alamo Quarry, Lomas Santa Fe, and Gateway Marketplace, and lower rental expenses at Carmel Mountain Plaza.

Multifamily same-store cash NOI increased 10.2% or 10.8%, excluding the RV Park. Excluding real estate tax refunds, growth would have been 4.9%, primarily reflecting stronger performance income at Pacific Ridge and Imperial Beach Gardens. And mixed-use same-store cash NOI increased 3.9%.

Embassy Suites at Waikiki Beach Walk performed well, with hotel NOI increasing to approximately $3.1 million from $2.6 million a year ago. The hotel's performance was partially offset by lower NOI in the retail portion of the property, primarily because a bad debt collection in the prior year quarter did not recur.

At Embassy Suites, occupancy increased to 88.5% from 78.3% a year ago. RevPAR increased 13.3% to $337, while ADR increased 0.2% to $381. Overall, our same-store portfolio continued to demonstrate solid operating performance with growth supported by leasing activity, rental income and expense management, supplemented by onetime items.

Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity. We ended the quarter with approximately $590 million of total liquidity, consisting of $90 million in cash and $500 million available under our revolving credit facility. Net debt to EBITDA was 6.4x on a quarterly annualized basis and 6.9x on a trailing 12-month basis.

Our long-term target remains 5.5x or below. Our interest coverage ratio and fixed charge coverage ratio were 3.3x on a quarterly annualized basis and 3.1x on a trailing 12-month basis. Turning to guidance. We are increasing our full year 2026 FFO guidance range to $2.04 to $2.10 per diluted share with a midpoint of $2.07. This compares with our previously issued range of $1.96 to $2.10 with a midpoint of $2.03. The increase represents approximately 2% growth at the midpoint.

Our outlook reflects continued momentum across our core sectors, supported by leasing activity, contractual rent increases, disciplined operating expense management, the collection of a previously reserved office receivable and real estate tax refunds.

Our guidance assumes a stable operating environment, continued tenant demand and a prudent approach to risk management. While our guidance represents our best estimate based on the information available today, we believe there is potential to perform toward the upper end of the range as several favorable developments occur.

First, the majority of retail tenants for whom we have established credit reserves must continue to meet their rent obligations. As of the third quarter, approximately $0.005 per share of FFO was reserved for tenants considered at risk based on a probability weighted approach.

Second, our multifamily segment would need to outperform expectations through improved occupancy, continued rent growth, or better-than-expected expense management. Third, Embassy Suites would need to deliver stronger results. We remain cautiously optimistic about the potential for domestic and international travel to improve.

We will continue to monitor these factors closely as the year progresses. As a reminder, our guidance excludes the impact of future acquisitions, dispositions, equity issuances or repurchases and debt refinancing or repayments, except for those already disclosed.

We remain committed to transparency, and we'll continue to provide clear insight into our quarterly results and the key assumptions underlying our outlook. Finally, the non-GAAP financial measures discussed today, including NOI, are reconciled to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release and supplemental materials. With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

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Todd Thomas

Adam, the leasing pipelines that you discussed, I think it was about 132,000 in lease documentation, maybe proposals that are out for another 178,000 square feet that included some of the leasing at La Jolla and One Beach. What's your confidence level around getting those leases executed? And then any change in urgency for tenants to execute leases here over the last several months? And how are the rents relative to what you were initially underwriting?

Adam Wyll

Yes, sure. So, Todd, on the leases we discussed for La Jolla Commons, and I'll have Steve supplement this also. We're fairly confident that we're going to get those executed here in short order, if not in the next few days. The One Beach proposals that we mentioned, I think we're fairly confident, but we don't want to get over our skis on that one until we have lease documentations going out, but there is meaningful interest, particularly now that the spec suite is completed. There's been heightened tours and proposal activity over there.

So as for whether we get all that done this year, I think that's kind of the focus, obviously, and we're relatively optimistic we'll get it done. If we get all of that done, we're going to obviously trend towards the higher end of our lease percentage range that I gave, which was 84% to 86%, keeping in mind that Genentech space, which is, call it, 70,000 or so square feet moves out at the end of this month. So we're going to kind of recapture some of that lost square footage and maybe do even a little better.

But of course, as you know, Todd, we're a little bit more conservative on this stuff. So we want to give you guys a range so we don't underperform. With respect to the timing of these deals happening, like I said, sometimes these things take a little bit longer right now to get the deals done, particularly the larger square footage deals and with sophisticated high credit tenants, they've got their legal teams and their business teams.

So we're seeing kind of a longer lead time to get deals cut than we used to, but we're not losing deals during that process. Steve, do you want to layer on to that?

Steve Center

Yes, Todd, you had asked about the rents. At La Jolla Commons III, we're in our range, including the yield that we expected. So we're doing well in that regard. And at One Beach, I think we're exceeding our expectations, frankly, in terms of where the rents are coming in. So we're doing what we thought we would do.

Todd Thomas

Okay. That's helpful. On the current leased pipeline that has not yet commenced, so the $12 million of annualized office rent, the new property level disclosure is helpful, by the way. But I'm just curious if you can talk about sort of the timing and the schedule for that to come online through 2027. And are there any major remaining conditions before those tenants begin paying rent?

Adam Wyll

So sure. So on the signed but not commenced numbers that I gave, Todd, 35% of it will commence in Q4 of this year. So that's to say, this quarter, this upcoming Q4 and about 60% of that number is going to start in the first half of next year, front-loaded more so in Q1 and the remainder through the end of the year, a little bit bleeds into 2028.

As for the conditions, a lot of this is either landlord build where we control and we're very confident in our timing and ability to deliver the space or tenant build where it's a set commencement date anyway. So we don't think there's going to be any conditions that cause any of these commencement dates to slip.

Todd Thomas

Okay. And then on the Genentech move out, just how are conversations there around backfilling? Any update there that you can share?

Adam Wyll

Not backfilling those 3 floors, but we've got really positive activity at First & Main right now. And so we also closed a 17,000-foot lease in our 710 renovation. So overall, we're doing really well in Portland. Genentech, no prospects yet. But again, we've got really good tenant activity at First & Main.

Operator

Our next question comes from Haendel St. Juste with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Ravi Vaidya

This is Ravi on behalf -- on the line for Haendel from Mizuho, not KeyBanc, but just wanted to ask here about the change in guide, large increase at the low end of the guide. Can we just do a before and after comparison? And what was embedded? What were some of the assumptions for the prior low end of the guide that is no longer the case as you think about '26?

Adam Wyll

So Ravi, you're asking -- say that again?

Ravi Vaidya

I just wanted to understand some of the moving parts that drove the lift in the guidance.

Adam Wyll

Okay. Well, I mean, you saw in Q3, we had $0.04 or $0.05 of outperformance and a few cents of that related to property tax refunds that will not be recurring in Q4, and we had a collection of a previously reserved office receivable that was probably $0.01 and change.

So the operating outperformance outside of that, that would be more reoccurring would probably be maybe $0.01, $0.015. So if you kind of triangulate our midpoint based on where we are year-to-date, that constitutes $0.50 or so of Q4 FFO and that's where we get to the midpoint. Do we think we're going to underperform that? I mean it's highly unlikely absent something happening that's highly unexpected at this point.

And more likely than not, we have the ability to outperform that number, Ravi, by either collecting our reserved tenants on the bad debt side or outperformance on multifamily, which happens seasonally in Q4 for us often, or if the hotel outperforms better than expected and the visibility in the hotel is a little bit more challenged now than it used to be with bookings happening a little bit closer to their occupancy. So kind of a long-winded way of saying we don't expect to miss the midpoint. I think that best bet is that we have a good chance to beat it, but we'll see how it plays out. Bob, do you have anything to supplement on that?

Robert Barton

No, I think you nailed it on that. Ravi, do you have any other questions on that?

Ravi Vaidya

No, that was very helpful. I wanted to ask about the SNO pipeline, and I know you touched about it earlier with Todd's question, but maybe you guys have commentary regarding the growth inflection in the core headed into '27 and '28 as those signed leases come online, particularly across your office portfolio?

Adam Wyll

Yes. So we're not really looking to provide any incremental guidance on what next year is going to look like, Ravi. I mean that SNO pipeline that you mentioned is in the supplemental and kind of breaks it down by quarterly expected commencement date. So we would say to kind of bank on that.

And as we come back to you guys early next year, and we'll have had a couple more months of hopefully, really positive sustained leasing activity, we'll be able to come back at you with where we're seeing our same-store growth on the office and every other sector and where we're looking to end next year.

If you look at our top 10 list, you'll see there's a couple of expirations on the office side coming towards the end of 2027. Most of that will be collected throughout next year, and we've got some work to do to either backfill that or extend those folks. But not otherwise in a position to tell you where the trajectory or momentum will be for next year.

Ravi Vaidya

Got it. Understood. And maybe just one here on Embassy Suites. Occupancy increased pretty dramatically on a year-over-year basis, close to 1,000 bps seems like, and rate was fairly flat. It also seems that Japanese tourism is still fairly sidelined. Can you please help us reconcile what drove the occupancy increase for the hotel?

Adam Wyll

Bob, he's asking what drove the occupancy increase at the hotel. Do you want to hit that one?

Robert Barton

Well, for Q3, Ravi, I mean, typically, during Q3, we're up $0.02 of FFO just related to the Embassy Suites. And then in Q4, historically, we're down $0.01, $0.015 on that. So there's nothing specific other than people are coming to visit it during the third quarter.

Ravi Vaidya

Got it.

Adam Wyll

The reality is, Ravi, just there were some hotels were down for renovation. So there was the ability to grab incremental occupancy. Even though rates stayed flat, we were able to grab some more room nights, and that obviously played through into our earnings. Whether that's sustainable or not, we'll see through the end of this year, but we're going to grab whatever occupancy we can.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

Ronald Kamdem

Great. A couple of quick ones for me. Just starting with the retail portfolio, it looked pretty full, right, 98-plus percent occupancy. I guess just curious of how you guys are thinking about sort of the pricing dynamics and the ability to sort of drive same-store higher in that portfolio just from a high level?

Adam Wyll

Yes, I'll kick it off and then turn it over to our retail guy. But obviously, when we're at 98% leased, that's kind of telling us that there's a lot of demand for the spaces we have in our properties. And as these leases roll, we're pushing rents as much as we can, Ron.

In many instances, if a space goes vacant on us, there's numerous retailers that want to get in and kind of compete for the tenant mix, and we're selective on who we want to put into these properties. And obviously, where inflation is and rates are, we're not looking to go downward in rate.

Generally speaking, if you look at our spreads over the past many quarters, even if you look at the past 3 or 4, 5 years, we seem to have positive spreads more times than not. And I think that's indicative of the quality and the location of these assets. But of course, there's also the mom-and-pop guys. Some may fall through and they're paying high rents and you may need to backfill with someone that has a little bit more credit that's not going to pay as much. But -- so we're trying to balance between credit and rate and of course, occupancy. So Sully, do you have anything to add to that?

Christopher Sullivan

I think you've answered the question perfectly. There's nothing I can add to that.

Adam Wyll

Okay. We'll do our best. Of course, we're greedy, Ron, and we're going to grab as much cash as we can from these tenants within reason so that they can still sustain their business and have proper occupancy costs.

Ronald Kamdem

Great. And then on the office side, I guess if I could ask a two-parter. One is just -- obviously, we've talked about La Jolla Commons and One Beach. Besides those 2 properties, where do you think is sort of the most obvious lift in vacancy that you could sort of tackle to get the occupancy higher? And then would love an update on your thoughts on capital recycling at this point in the portfolio about where you could sell or if you're interested in buying anything?

Adam Wyll

Let me hit the first one and then Steve can supplement that. I think you've heard Bob mention in the past, Ron, that we have $0.30 or so of incremental FFO from our redevelopment properties, that's La Jolla Commons, One Beach and also our suburban Bellevue portfolio. So if you were to ask me where the biggest lift is, it is in that portfolio, the suburban Bellevue one. Of the $0.30 of incremental FFO potential and assuming some of these deals get inked that I mentioned in my script, we'd probably be probably at about 20% in place -- I mean, $0.20 in place and $0.10 speculative. And most of that speculative is going to come out of 14Acres in Bellevue and Timber Springs in Bellevue, which have gone through renovation and amenitization and are -- we were just up there a week or 2 ago.

These are beautiful assets, and we think there's going to be some overflow from Downtown Bellevue, which has been really crushing it lately. Steve, do you want to layer on to that?

Steve Center

Yes. In terms of the markets, we're seeing good results across all 4. San Diego -- well, by square footage, San Diego is the biggest, but it's also our biggest portfolio. San Francisco, with those spec suites completed, we expect to lease the rest of One Beach. We've got some good traction in Portland, as I alluded to earlier.

And then Bellevue, first of all, our tower in City Center Bellevue is over 95% leased. We do have some rollover, but we've got great activity there behind it. And then we're making some gains. Right now, the I-520 corridor has gotten more active. So we've got multiple proposals going on up there. And I-90 is still the laggard, but it's interesting.

We've leased 35% of that asset since the beginning of 2025. We just had some unexpected losses due to business shutdowns that really negated that. So that's been active as well. We've been winning more than our fair share of deals in that submarket, too. So -- we see gains across all, I would say, San Diego #1, San Francisco #2, Portland #3, and Bellevue probably last just because our tower is nearly full.

Ronald Kamdem

Great. And then thoughts on capital recycling here?

Adam Wyll

Yes. So we regularly ask ourselves whether we're the best long-term owner of each asset we own and whether that capital could earn a better return elsewhere. So if we can achieve attractive pricing and use the proceeds to improve the balance sheet or earn a better return elsewhere, we're all on board with that.

But we have to look at the full economics, too, and that includes taxes and transaction costs and the cash flow we would give up. Joint ventures and partnerships can be alternatives to an outright sale. But our objective, Ron, is to improve our long-term value per share -- we'll be patient until the economics support that.

And on the recycling side, there's a few assets that we would consider disposing of, but they're still part of our core portfolio. So it's going to be very compelling. And whether that's the hotel or the RV Park or maybe our retail property up in Walnut Creek, these are alternatives for us to recycle out of. But when you have great assets, we got to be right on both sides of the equation to make sense of it. And we've taken a run at a couple, but we haven't won. We're not going to get over our skis, like I said earlier. So we'll see how it plays out. We're not going to force it.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Adam Wyll for any closing remarks.

Adam Wyll

Well, we appreciate everyone's time and listening to our call today and your support. It means a lot to us. We hope everyone has a great week, and we'll talk to you in a few months. Cheers.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.