Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của Oatly (OTLY): Tăng trưởng duy trì khi chi phí logistics làm giảm dự báo

Tập đoàn Oatly (NASDAQ: OTLY) đã báo cáo tăng trưởng doanh thu 9,1% trong quý 3 năm tài chính 2026, trong khi EBITDA điều chỉnh tăng lên 9,4 triệu USD. Kết quả hoạt động tích cực tại châu Âu và Quốc tế cùng hiệu quả chuỗi cung ứng đã hỗ trợ khả năng sinh lời, nhưng chi phí nhiên liệu và cước vận chuyển cao hơn tại Bắc Mỹ đã khiến công ty hạ dự báo EBITDA điều chỉnh cho cả năm.

Những điểm chính

• Doanh thu quý 3 tăng 9,1% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và tăng 8,9% theo tỷ giá cố định, nhờ sản lượng tăng 4,2% và lợi ích 4,7% từ giá bán và cơ cấu sản phẩm.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp đạt 34,1%, tăng 436 điểm cơ bản, do việc hấp thụ chi phí cố định, hiệu quả chuỗi cung ứng và giá/cơ cấu sản phẩm đã bù đắp cho lạm phát và áp lực tỷ giá hối đoái.
• EBITDA điều chỉnh tăng 6,3 triệu USD lên 9,4 triệu USD, tương đương 3,9% doanh thu thuần.
• Doanh thu theo tỷ giá cố định của khu vực châu Âu và Quốc tế tăng 20,4%, bao gồm mức tăng trưởng sản lượng gần 18%. Bắc Mỹ tăng 2,9%, trong khi khu vực Đại Trung Hoa giảm 19,3%.
• Oatly duy trì triển vọng tăng trưởng doanh thu theo tỷ giá cố định năm 2026 từ 8% đến 10%, nhưng hạ dự báo EBITDA điều chỉnh xuống 16 triệu - 20 triệu USD từ khoảng 25 triệu - 35 triệu USD trước đó.
• Ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc hạ dự báo hoàn toàn do chi phí, đặc biệt là sự gia tăng mạnh mẽ của chi phí nhiên liệu và cước vận chuyển tại Bắc Mỹ kể từ mùa hè.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Sự cải thiện biên lợi nhuận gộp bao gồm khoảng 450 điểm cơ bản từ việc hấp thụ chi phí cố định và hiệu quả chuỗi cung ứng, cùng 120 điểm cơ bản từ giá thuần và cơ cấu sản phẩm/kênh phân phối. Lạm phát làm giảm biên lợi nhuận 110 điểm cơ bản, trong đó có 90 điểm cơ bản liên quan đến xung đột Trung Đông và chi phí cước vận chuyển ở Bắc Mỹ.

Mức tăng 6,3 triệu USD của EBITDA điều chỉnh phản ánh mức tăng 16,6 triệu USD lợi nhuận gộp, bị bù đắp một phần bởi mức tăng 10,3 triệu USD chi phí bán hàng, quản lý doanh nghiệp (SG&A) và chi phí khác. Chi phí phân phối tới khách hàng cao hơn cùng khoản đầu tư vào thương hiệu và quảng cáo là những yếu tố chính đóng góp vào sự gia tăng chi phí.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Châu Âu và Quốc tế

Doanh thu theo tỷ giá cố định tăng 20,4%, với mức tăng trưởng sản lượng gần 18% mặc dù phải so sánh với mức tăng trưởng sản lượng gần 9% trong quý 3/2025. Sản lượng tiêu dùng ngoài nhà tăng 25% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

EBITDA điều chỉnh của phân khúc tăng gần 10 triệu USD, và biên EBITDA điều chỉnh mở rộng khoảng 370 điểm cơ bản lên 21,4%. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các thị trường mở rộng cũng ghi nhận EBITDA điều chỉnh dương nhờ công ty tận dụng công suất hiện có và duy trì mô hình tiếp cận thị trường có kỷ luật.

Bắc Mỹ

Doanh thu theo tỷ giá cố định tại Bắc Mỹ tăng 2,9%, bao gồm sự tích cực từ giá bán và cơ cấu sản phẩm. Oatly cho biết sản lượng bán lẻ tăng 8% mặc dù doanh số bán lẻ toàn ngành giảm ở mức giữa một chữ số. Công ty cũng báo cáo số điểm phân phối đạt kỷ lục và cho biết đã thu hẹp khoảng cách thị phần với doanh nghiệp dẫn đầu ngành xuống còn khoảng hai điểm phần trăm, so với mức gần tám điểm vào mùa hè năm 2025.

EBITDA điều chỉnh của phân khúc tăng 1,6 triệu USD lên 0,3 triệu USD, mang lại biên lợi nhuận dương 0,5%. Tuy nhiên, chi phí nhiên liệu và logistics tăng cao đã hạn chế tốc độ cải thiện.

Oatly có kế hoạch điều chỉnh giá có chọn lọc trong quý 1/2027. Ban lãnh đạo mô tả động thái này là đáng kể nhưng không đưa ra con số cụ thể. Công ty có ý định kết hợp việc điều chỉnh giá với các sản phẩm mới và chuyển sang quy cách đóng gói 48 ounce cho các sản phẩm đổi mới sáng tạo, thay vì áp dụng mức tăng đồng loạt trên toàn bộ danh mục.

Đại Trung Hoa

Doanh thu theo tỷ giá cố định tại Đại Trung Hoa giảm 19,3%, phản ánh mức so sánh cao của kỳ trước và áp lực tiếp diễn trong kênh dịch vụ thực phẩm. EBITDA điều chỉnh ở mức âm 1,9 triệu USD, giảm 3,5 triệu USD so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.

Oatly dự kiến hoàn tất việc đánh giá chiến lược đối với khu vực Đại Trung Hoa vào cuối năm 2026. Ban lãnh đạo đang đánh giá một số phương án, bao gồm khả năng tách riêng, với các mục tiêu đã tuyên bố là cải thiện trọng tâm hoạt động, lợi nhuận dòng tiền và giá trị của doanh nghiệp.

Đổi mới sản phẩm

Oatly đã ra mắt nền tảng đồ uống bổ sung chất xơ (Fiber) tại châu Âu và dự kiến ra mắt tại Bắc Mỹ vào tháng 1/2027. Dòng sản phẩm này bao gồm lựa chọn ít calo, không đường và sản phẩm Barista ít đường. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết một khẩu phần khoảng 250 ml cung cấp 5-6 gam chất xơ.

Dòng sản phẩm Fiber dự kiến sẽ có mặt tại 11 thị trường châu Âu vào cuối năm. Oatly cũng đang giới thiệu Barista Cold Foam và mở rộng các sản phẩm Barista có hương vị cùng các sản phẩm Matcha. Ban lãnh đạo xem các nền tảng này là một cách để tăng tỷ lệ thâm nhập hộ gia đình và mở rộng các dịp tiêu dùng.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc điều chỉnh EBITDA điều chỉnh hoàn toàn do yếu tố chi phí. Tại Bắc Mỹ, chi phí cước vận chuyển tới khách hàng tính trên mỗi lít trong quý 4 dự kiến sẽ cao hơn 12,5% so với mức trung bình trong nửa đầu năm 2026. Công ty ước tính áp lực chi phí tăng thêm trong quý 4 tại Bắc Mỹ sẽ nằm trong khoảng đầu hai chữ số phần trăm.

Đối với kế hoạch đầu năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ đang giả định các chi phí giá vốn hàng bán và logistics chủ chốt vẫn duy trì ở mức tồi tệ nhất được ghi nhận trong nửa sau năm 2026. Oatly đã thông báo tăng giá tại Bắc Mỹ có hiệu lực từ quý 1/2027 và đang xem xét lại chính sách giá tại châu Âu.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Lạm phát cước vận chuyển và nhiên liệu tại Bắc Mỹ đã vượt quá khả năng ngắn hạn của công ty trong việc bù đắp chi phí thông qua năng suất, cơ cấu sản phẩm và các biện pháp giảm thiểu khác.
• Chi phí liên quan đến xung đột Trung Đông vẫn tiếp diễn tại khu vực châu Âu và Quốc tế. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết áp lực này chiếm hơn 100 điểm cơ bản trong biên EBITDA điều chỉnh cả năm của công ty.
• Các hành động điều chỉnh giá có thể tạo ra độ co giãn về sản lượng trong bối cảnh người tiêu dùng vẫn chịu nhiều áp lực. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ có một mức độ co giãn nhất định nhưng tin rằng mức tăng trưởng phân phối và đổi mới sáng tạo có thể hạn chế ảnh hưởng này.
• Khu vực Đại Trung Hoa tiếp tục đối mặt với sự suy yếu của kênh dịch vụ thực phẩm, doanh thu sụt giảm và EBITDA điều chỉnh âm trong khi quá trình đánh giá chiến lược vẫn đang diễn ra.
• Dòng tiền tự do quý 3 suy giảm do thời điểm chi tiêu vốn, lượng hàng tồn kho tích trữ cho các đợt ra mắt sản phẩm và mở rộng phân phối, cùng sự đảo ngược về thời điểm vốn lưu động thuận lợi của quý 2.
• Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh rằng môi trường chi phí vẫn còn nhiều biến động và triển vọng của công ty phản ánh các điều kiện được ghi nhận tại thời điểm diễn ra cuộc họp.

Những điểm nổi bật trong phần Hỏi & Đáp với các chuyên gia phân tích

Giá bán và độ co giãn: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc điều chỉnh giá tại Bắc Mỹ sẽ có chọn lọc và được thiết kế để bù đắp lạm phát chi phí “không hơn, không kém”. Mức tăng sẽ được kết hợp với đổi mới sản phẩm và thay đổi kích thước bao bì. Oatly cũng đang xem xét lại giá bán tại châu Âu nhưng chưa thông báo hành động cụ thể cho khách hàng.

Triển vọng chi phí sang năm 2027: Ban lãnh đạo không cho rằng lạm phát logistics sẽ sớm hạ nhiệt. Kế hoạch nội bộ hiện tại lấy các mức chi phí tồi tệ nhất trong nửa sau năm 2026 cho các yếu tố đầu vào chính và logistics làm điểm xuất phát cho năm 2027.

Tính bền vững của tăng trưởng: Không bao gồm Đại Trung Hoa, sản lượng quý 3 của Oatly tăng 15% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, trong khi sản lượng từ đầu năm đến nay tăng gần 10%. Ban lãnh đạo gắn động lực này với tỷ lệ thâm nhập hộ gia đình cao hơn, nhu cầu ngoài nhà, sự phát triển phân phối và các đợt ra mắt sản phẩm, đồng thời lưu ý rằng năm 2027 sẽ phải đối mặt với mức so sánh cao hơn.

Các biện pháp nâng cao năng suất: Oatly có kế hoạch tiếp tục cải thiện chuỗi cung ứng và giá vốn hàng bán, giảm thiểu những sự yếu kém còn lại trong bộ máy tổ chức, tăng năng suất chi phí chung và sử dụng cơ cấu kênh, khách hàng và sản phẩm để giúp bảo vệ khả năng sinh lời.

Dòng tiền: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết phần lớn dòng tiền tự do chảy ra trong quý 3 phản ánh yếu tố thời điểm. Hàng tồn kho tích trữ cho đổi mới sáng tạo đã vượt quá 11 triệu USD và dự kiến sẽ không lặp lại trong quý 4. Chi tiêu vốn thấp hơn, áp lực hàng tồn kho giảm và các khoản phải trả được cải thiện dự kiến sẽ hỗ trợ sự cải thiện dòng tiền theo quý và so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái trong quý 4.

Toàn văn cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Oatly Group Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, John Baumgartner, Vice President of Investor Relations.

John Baumgartner

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. On today's call are our Chief Executive Officer, Jean-Christophe Flatin; our Global President and Chief Operating Officer, Daniel Ordonez; and our Chief Financial Officer, Marie-Jose David.

Please review the cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements and other disclaimers on Slide 3, which are integrated into this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. Please also refer to the documents we have filed with the SEC for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today.

Also on today's call, management will refer to certain non-IFRS financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA, constant currency revenue and free cash flow. Please refer to today's release for a reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. In addition, Oatly has posted a supplemental presentation on its website for reference.

I'd now like to turn the call over to Jean-Christophe.

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Slide 5 features our key messages. First, our third quarter tells the story of business resilience. Not only did we deliver strong top line growth, but we also delivered substantial growth in total adjusted EBITDA, both year-on-year and sequentially, despite another quarter of elevated and tightening cost inflation. Our results exceeded consensus expectations despite this pressure.

Second, in Europe and International, volume momentum remains robust. On-trend innovation drives growth, and we believe that our new products are capturing incremental demand, both for Oatly and the plant-based category, while attracting younger consumers.

In North America, where the macro backdrop remains challenging, we are activating on the controllables as we accelerate retail distribution growth now at a record high number of distribution points, and we continue to narrow the market share gap in pursuit of category leadership.

Third, I'm excited to announce our entry into the wellness space through our new platform of Fiber beverages. Our first platform launch planned across both Europe and North America. One of the reasons that our founders chose oats is for its nutritional power, including the fiber naturally present in oats. As many populations consume less fiber than recommended by dietary guidelines, creating what we refer to as being the fiber gap, our Fiber platform is designed to offer consumers a convenient and delicious way to incorporate more fiber into their everyday diets. Our Fiber line has launched in Europe and arrives in North America in January 2027.

Fourth, our cost structure maintained strong resilience through the third quarter, including absorption of higher costs related to the Middle East conflict, both in Europe and International, and North America, which allowed us to deliver our strong quarter 3 performance.

However, the latest wave of logistics and fuel inflation in North America has finally exceeded our capacity to offset. For perspective, in the U.S., diesel prices have increased approximately 70% since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East in February and approximately 40% since early July. This unexpected and sharp acceleration during quarter 3, combined with broader logistics pressure, drives the downward revision to our full year adjusted EBITDA outlook.

In response, we continue to engage key mitigation levers, including continued cost efficiencies and product mix, and we will implement incremental pricing effective in the first quarter of 2027. Amid these volatile and challenging macro headwinds, we choose to protect our profit margins and resources to reinvest and fuel our growth. Despite these profit headwinds, we remain on a positive structural trajectory of profitable growth.

Our reiteration of 2026 constant currency revenue despite more difficult year-on-year comparisons and macro consumer pressure reinforces our confidence and visibility into our demand-generating growth strategy.

Turning now to Slide 6. Here, you can see our solid third quarter scorecard for important key performance indicators. Our revenue grew by 9.1% and 8.9% in constant currency. Our gross profit margin reached 34.1%, an improvement of 436 basis points compared to last year. Our adjusted EBITDA was positive $9.4 million and 3.9% of net sales, an improvement of $6.3 million versus last year despite reinvestment and cost inflation.

Finally, our free cash flow in the quarter was a negative $18.4 million, a decline from last year outflow of $5.4 million and attributable to timing elements that MJ will detail in the finance section.

Our year-to-date cash flow is evolving consistent with our expectations, and our business plan remains fully funded. We maintain focus on achieving positive free cash flow through continued improvement in the P&L, growth in adjusted EBITDA and working capital efficiencies.

Slide 7 reiterates our focus areas for the rest of 2026. As Daniel will soon outline, not only do we maintain high conviction in the traction of our growth playbook on existing portfolio, but our combined taste and fiber products strongly position us to participate in more consumption occasions across more consumer segments as a full beverage company.

In addition, we remain fully mobilized across all parts of the company to mitigate the continued macro volatility and cost headwinds to protect our profit margin and our ability to further fuel our growth momentum.

Finally, as it pertains to Greater China, we expect to complete our strategic review by the end of this year as we evaluate a range of options, including a potential carve-out. Our goal is to accelerate growth, enhance operational focus and improve our consolidated cash returns whilst maximizing the value of this business. We view North America and other international expansion markets as our priorities for growth, and we commend our management team in Greater China for navigating challenging local headwinds in recent years. We will, of course, update the market on our progress as necessary.

Slide 8 summarizes our guidance. For full year 2026, continued execution of our growth playbook underpins our unchanged outlook for constant revenue growth of 8% to 10%. As discussed, the reduction of our adjusted EBITDA outlook from the prior lower end of $25 million to $35 million to a new range of $16 million to $20 million reflects incremental pressure from fuel and logistics in North America since the end of July.

With that, Daniel, over to you.

Daniel Ordonez

Thank you, JC, and good morning, everyone. I will start my discussion on Slide 10. We're very pleased with our strong year-to-date performance from the deployment of our growth playbook, which demonstrates Oatly's relevance in shaping the beverages culture.

As I discussed last quarter, over the past 2 years, we have made substantial progress reducing the barriers to consumption and creating new occasions for consumers to enjoy the taste, functionality and versatility of our oat drinks. We're encouraged by the growth in household penetration, which we believe reflects growing consumer preference of Oatly as a full-on beverages company.

As we close 2026, this approach is gaining momentum through new platforms and unique flavors, appealing to a much broader population and anchored on taste, health and with sustainability at the core. It is important to reflect on Oatly's ability to shape global beverages trends, so we captured the most prominent in the upcoming slides.

In quarter 3, we strengthened our presence in the global Matcha phenomenon with Monochrome events in Berlin, Toronto and London as featured on Slide 11. Our presence at the London Fashion Week reinforces Oatly's relevance at the intersection of beverages and culture, which led to a high-profile London Embassy event last week as featured on Slides 12 and 13.

Following After-Taste in New York back in June, our London Embassy event attracted media, influencers and commercial partners to celebrate the collective momentum for beverages and the launch of our latest trendsetting recipe Look Book, the volume 4 and our Future of Taste Report 2026. We hosted over 500 attendees on day 1 alone before it was open to the public. They experienced signature drinks, panel discussions exploring taste, trends, fiber, sustainability and participated in hands-on drinks master classes.

As demonstrated in our Future of Taste Report on Slide 14, our ambition is to shape what's next on menus. The insights that inform this work are collected from our very own beverage market developers based in each coffee capital of the world as well as coffee houses, experts and mixologists from more than 20 countries and finally, validated by data identifying what's trending online.

As traditional nightlife culture declines, cafes have become the hub where new ideas are cultivated and subcultures are formed. Oatly is uniquely positioned to offer our commercial partners the expertise into the trends shaping coffee culture and how these trends can be realized via our Look Book.

In this year's Future of Taste Report, we explored the pharmification of drinks from fiber to ferments, with the expectation that functionality cannot come at the expense of taste. Emerging health trends, including gut health, fiber-maxxing, fiber-layering, and skin care, are increasingly delivered through drinks.

Slide 15 shows how the coffee menu is transforming, fueled by customization and visual appeal, and moving away from the traditional offers of flat whites and cappuccinos. As an example, we expect the Mont Blancs and Cold Foam to enter the mainstream. Oatly's versatility is highly relevant for inclusion among these trends, and we close 2026 more confident than ever that Oatly provides the ultimate base for functionality, fun, and experimentation as captured in our Look Book. Through flavors and formats, we believe Oatly is strongly positioned to lead this new Taste World Order.

This leads me to our next big announcement on slide 16, the launch of our new Fiber platform. I emphasize that the Fiber range is not simply innovation, it's a natural evolution of who we are. Oatly is built on over 30 years of oat research and innovation which provides unique legitimacy in the fiber space.

Our Fiber line complements our Tastemakers platform as the breadth of our offerings has significantly expanded over the last 3 years.

The Fiber range is available in 2 options: a low calorie, no sugar option well-suited for use in shakes, and a low sugar Barista for coffee and similar drinks. An approximate 250 ml

serving, roughly equivalent to 1 oat latte, provides 5 grams to 6 grams of fiber. So we expect the platform to accelerate Oatly's penetration in new consumer occasions.

For example, low-cal is highly relevant for the world of wellness, fitness, and sports. Oatly Fiber can also be combined with protein powder, bringing fiber and protein together in a

creamy and convenient format, making for a versatile base for shakes and other functional beverages. Oatly Fiber has been designed to make it easier for consumers to incorporate more fiber into their everyday diets with particular focus on female consumers.

Despite these benefits, the modern diet lacks fiber as seen on slide 17. Across Europe, the average daily fiber intake is approximately 10 grams below the 30 grams recommended by health authorities. Similar gaps exist across the world including the U.S. We see consumer demand for fiber on the verge of a multiyear acceleration, and internet search data indicate fiber is already closing the gap with protein.

Fueled by the growing use of GLP-1 medications, consumers are increasingly scrutinizing the quality and quantity of nutrients, and we expect these structural tailwinds to drive fiber demand and notably for oats. Nutrient-dense, naturally rich in fiber, and containing beta-glucans, a type of natural soluble fiber shown to reduce blood cholesterol levels.

We expect Oatly to be among the leaders in reducing the fiber gap through taste and our expertise in oat processing, which is an important part of our approach to developing fiber-focused products. Oatly Fiber will be available across 11 markets in Europe by year end and in the U.S. beginning of January 2027, in the new 48 ounces pack, and it will be supported with intention.

Closing my discussion on innovation, Slide 18 features our Oatly Barista Cold Foam, which extends our presence into the refreshment occasion and is among the strongest trends in the out-of-home channel and, again, particularly relevant for the younger consumer. Specially designed for out-of-home professionals and suitable for hot and iced drinks, cold beverages, and cocktails, our Cold Foam features a delicate vanilla note, is lighter than classic whipped cream, and compatible with most professional equipment. As with Fiber,

we intend to develop it into a full global platform at speed.

Turning to Slide 19 and our quarter 3 performance, Europe and International delivered another very robust quarter. Constant currency revenue growth was at 20.4%, including volume growth of nearly 18%. This is particularly impressive as we lapped volume growth of nearly 9% in last year's third quarter.

At the category level, retail takeaway growth for total plant-based beverages has remained solid, up high single digits driven by volume, while oat milk outgrows plant-based, up 9%. Oatly is growing at nearly double the rate of oat milk category.

As shown on Slide 20, growth in household penetration continues to enhance our results including increasing relevance among younger consumers. Oatly demonstrates strong appeal among Gen Z and Alpha, which underpins our encouraging long-term growth potential. Expanding appeal is also evident in our volume acceleration across the out-of-home channel, as seen on Slide 21, including year-on-year growth of 25% in quarter 3. Across our expansion markets, the sales dynamic is nearly identical. Oatly outperforms oat milk and oat milk is outperforming overall plant-based drinks.

As shown on Slide 22, we are accelerating our momentum and gaining critical mass with the identical playbook curated for local relevance. It seems as if France, Spain, Belgium, Mexico, UAE or Poland had been waiting for Oatly to arrive.

Importantly though, in addition to the accretive revenue growth from expansion markets, we are also adjusted EBITDA positive in these regions as we leverage our established capacity, and we observe a rigorous go-to-market approach.

Time to turn our attention to North America on Slide 23. Retail macros remain challenged. Consistent with recent quarters, category takeaway declined mid-single digits, but we again outperformed with volume-driven growth of 8%. This sustained momentum means we are quickly closing the market share gap, nearing just 2 percentage points to take market leadership, following a gap of nearly 8 percentage points in the summer of 2025.

Overall, our North America segment grew in Q3 with constant currency revenue of 2.9%, including positive price mix. This is net of the sales decline in the former largest customer, which is now significantly reduced, but still meaningful in the year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter comparison. Our sales in out-of-home accelerated sequentially, and September was the second strongest month of sales this year. Looking ahead, we plan to further accelerate this momentum.

Turning to Slide 24, our expectation for continued outperformance is underpinned by 2 catalysts. First, we are growing retail distribution at an accelerating rate including benefits from a category consolidation around a more limited number of leading brands. Our distribution growth has accelerated throughout the year, including contributions from numerous leading retailers and importantly, without diluting velocities.

This growth has been significantly driven by our Barista edition as shown on slide 25, by and large our leading item in Europe, and that I am glad to say, is now gaining traction in North America led by our Taste strategy, connecting the out-of-home experience with the retail channel, both in chilled and ambient shelves, and in multiple sizes for different shopper occasions.

Elevated visibility for Barista provides a foundational bridge to our second catalyst, the launch of flavored Barista, including the likes of churros or popcorn, and the introduction of our Matcha, all of which are now underway.

Collectively, expanded distribution is driving our sustained growth in market share, as featured on Slide 26, and our larger market presence leads to the adoption of our increasingly diverse range of products as seen on Slide 27. This more expansive portfolio enables a reframing of the category to drive new consumer trial, and ultimately, repeat and velocity.

Shifting to Greater China on Slide 28. Third quarter constant currency revenue declined 19.3% on lapping last year's difficult comparison of growth of 29%. Operating conditions remain consistent with recent quarters, including headwinds that persist in the food service channel and sustained strong performance of the new retail portfolio. As JC mentioned, we intend to complete the strategic review of our Greater China segment by the end of this year.

To close my business update, I would like to focus on the trajectory of key business metrics on Slide 29. We continue to deliver strong volume growth, which is converting into operating leverage and gross margin expansion that fuels reinvestment.

In the third quarter, spending for branding and advertising again grew at a strong double digit rate relative to last year and was among the main factors driving the year-on-year increase in SG&A.

As JC mentioned, this latest wave of North America fuel and freight inflation since July has finally outpaced our ability to offset this incremental cost pressure, similar with our peers in

food and beverage, which reduces our outlook for 2026 adjusted EBITDA. With the necessary objective to protect margins, we have already communicated a price increase to our customers, effective in the first quarter of 2027.

We are confident that the significant wave of relevant innovations, taste, fiber, and importantly, the reframing with the 48 ounces pack for the innovations, not on 64 ounces any longer, together with strong distribution and velocity traction, will help buffer volume elasticity.

In Europe, our pricing is also under review as the cost impact related to this year's Middle East conflict is proving stickier. We emphasize our decisiveness for the consolidation of profitability, from which we will reinvest to sustain the current cycle of demand growth in 2027 and beyond.

And with that, I will now turn the call over to MJ.

Marie-Jose David

Thank you, Daniel, and good morning, everyone. Slide 31 summarizes our solid financial delivery for the third quarter. Constant currency revenue grew 8.9% against a more difficult prior year comparison, maintaining the solid rate seen in quarter 2. Gross profit margin was 34.1% and increased 436 basis points year-on-year. Net pricing and product mix offset cost inflation with nearly all pressure driven by conflict in the Middle East and freight expenses in North America. This offset drove the flow-through of solid operating leverage from facility optimization, volume absorption and productivity improvements.

Q3 adjusted EBITDA was a positive $9.4 million and improved $6.3 million relative to last year's quarter 3. Delivery was consistent with our expectations for a ramp in second half profit contribution, driven by gross margin expansion, some favorable expense phasing and SG&A leverage.

Our brand investments have demonstrated strong returns, which have been sustained despite this year's material cost inflation, and the underlying trajectory of structural profit improvement remains positive.

I will now provide more details about our financial performance. Slide 32 shows the bridging items of our revenue growth. Volume grew 4.2%. Price mix increased 4.7% and foreign exchange was a modest headwind at 0.2%.

Moving to Slide 33. The year-over-year gross margin bridge shows the improvement of approximately 440 basis points. This improvement is explained by 450 basis points from fixed cost absorption and supply chain efficiencies and 120 basis points from net pricing and product channel mix. These benefits were only partially offset by a negative impact from inflation of 110 basis points, including 90 basis points from the Middle East conflict and North America freight costs, and foreign currency headwinds of 20 basis points.

Slide 34 shows the quarter 3 year-over-year improvement in our adjusted EBITDA. Growth of $6.3 million was driven by a $16.6 million increase in gross profit, partially offset by a $10.3 million increase in SG&A and Other. Nearly half of this SG&A increase is driven by customer distribution costs, which are linked to sold volumes, and include increasing pressure from freight expense. Approximately 1/3 of the SG&A increase is from selling expenses and largely increased branding and advertising. The remaining increase in SG&A is driven by general and administrative functions. Excluding freight inflation related to macro factors, our underlying cost structure remains positioned to scale with volume growth.

Slide 35 shows segment-level detail. Europe and International grew net sales by 20.4% in constant currency. Despite continued cost inflation related to the Middle East conflict, adjusted EBITDA grew nearly $10 million year-on-year from both gross margin expansion and operating leverage. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.4% and expanded approximately 370 basis points year-on-year.

North America's constant currency revenue grew 2.9%. The segment's adjusted EBITDA increased by $1.6 million, to $0.3 million, and a more moderate growth rate relative to last quarter from rising cost pressure from fuel and logistics. Adjusted EBITDA margin was positive at 0.5% and improved approximately 260 basis points year-on-year.

Greater China constant currency revenue decreased 19.3%. The contraction is explained by the lapping of a challenging comparison with the prior year quarter, when constant currency revenue grew 29%, and continued current year macro pressure in the out-of-home channel. The segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of negative $1.9 million, and softening of $3.5 million year-on-year.

As JC mentioned, our strategic review is ongoing and expected to conclude by year end. In our reported results for quarter 3, Greater China results include a noncash impairment charge of $1.6 million, related to the exit of one office location, which is excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Quarter 3 corporate expense was higher by $1.4 million on higher personnel costs.

Turning to our cash flow on Slide 36, I reaffirm that our business plan remains fully funded, and we remain focused on bringing the company to positive free cash flow following the positive inflection in our adjusted EBITDA. In quarter 3, free cash flow was a net outflow of $18.4 million compared to an outflow of $5.4 million last year. The increased outflow results from 3 factors. First is unfavorable timing of capital expenditures which shifted from Q2 into Q3. Second is increased inventory to support our innovation launches and expanded distribution. Third is the previously disclosed expected reversal of beneficial working capital phasing that enhanced cash generation in Q2.

Year-to-date, cash from operating activities through quarter 3 is a negative $11.5 million and improved from last year's outflow of $17.4 million. Year-to-date results are consistent with our expectations, and at the end of quarter 3, total available liquidity was $95 million, including undrawn bank facilities.

Aside from the quarterly volatility in cash phasing this year, we see continued progress in our underlying cash drivers and opportunities for further improvement across all levers of cash flow. We continue to expect that free cash flow will not be positive for the full year 2026.

Specifically for quarter 4, we anticipate improved cash flow relative to quarter 3 and last year from multiple factors. First, timing considerations will result in CapEx not repeating at the same level as quarter 3. Second, as we have already largely built inventory to support our innovation, we do not anticipate a repeat of the headwind seen in quarter 3. Third, we also anticipate improvement in payables.

Turning to our 2026 outlook on Slide 37. As JC mentioned at the top of the call, we are maintaining our outlook for constant currency revenue growth at 8% to 10%. On a reported basis, considering recent FX rates and assuming no change for the rest of the year, we estimate FX to add approximately 200 to 250 basis points to net sales, consistent with our prior expectation.

For adjusted EBITDA, we are reducing our outlook from the prior low end of $25 million to $35 million, to $16 million to $20 million. Year-to-date, the flexibility and resilience of our model absorbed the cost impact of the Middle East conflict. However, similar with many of our peers in food and beverage, the latest increases in fuel and freight costs for North America have been larger than anticipated.

Although we have mitigation efforts underway, the time lag of these levers will be unable to offset this incremental cost push in quarter 4, which we estimate will be in the low double-digit

percent in North America. The net impact of this cost pressure results in our reduced outlook for adjusted EBITDA.

As a reminder, our outlook is provided in the context of what we know today and set against elevated macro volatility. Our fundamentals remain strong, and we continue to execute against our growth playbook, while maintaining agility to adapt to external factors.

Lastly, our guidance for full year CapEx remains unchanged, in the range of $20 million to $30 million, and with a bias to the middle of this range.

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now hand it over to the operator for the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Phần hỏi đáp

Andrew Lazar

I guess I wanted to drill down a little bit on some of the pricing commentary. Certainly, a number of packaged food peers have already discussed the likely need to take some pricing actions exiting this year into '27. And those that have discussed it a bit more in a more detailed fashion have also talked about embedding greater than, let's say, historical or typical volume elasticity this time around, just given the consumer is under a bit more pressure than, let's say, the last time the industry had to enact quite a bit of pricing.

So I'm trying to get a sense of what type of elasticity are you embedding in North America? And I guess in Europe as well, it sounds like there's probably some pricing coming there also. And is it greater than sort of what you've typically seen in these types of situations?

Daniel Ordonez

Thank you, Andrew. Daniel here will take your call. Thank you for the question. Listen, pricing, you got it right. We will do what we must do to protect margins since the cost inflation seems to be sticky. Before I dive into elasticity, I would like to see how we're looking at the 2 segments, right? We talked about, you got it right as well. The North America price increase is through, and we are contemplating but decisively as well in Europe as we speak.

We need to look at things -- the way we look at things is upon very strong velocities. We see at the moment, strong velocities, market share momentum, significant market share momentum and building up. And we show a consistent net gain from private labels, Andrew. So this is possibly significantly different to what other CPG peers could be seeing at the moment. So that demonstrates that our value equation is robust.

How much are we going to increase price? The sufficient one to offset cost increase. So that gives you already the way we are directionally looking into 2027.

Now to frame this up, we don't see just a price increase as we're implementing these, but primarily an innovation-led price reframing. You see all the new items you see on taste, on fiber, the reframing of the 64 ounces in the U.S. to 48 ounces, all the innovation will come in 48 ounces that you see on Slide 27 for reference, half of those items will be new. So when you see what consumers and shoppers are going to be seeing, are not going to see a net price increase that sits, but a lot of momentum happening on shelf.

Elasticity, there will always be. We're building some, not much. And we expect the context to remain volatile. So -- but on the whole, Andrew, we are -- we believe we are very well placed to minimize the elasticity.

Andrew Lazar

Got it. All right. And then just curious on sort of as you think forward, the outlook on the oat milk category in North America, sort of once you lap the competitor leaving the space, which I'm assuming, but maybe I'm wrong, is what drove the oat milk category down some 12% in the quarter.

Daniel Ordonez

Yes. Listen, good question, Andrew. You're right. If you look at what's happening with that alleged consolidation, we're clearly gaining more than our fair share, as you see on Slide 24. Imagine we are 800 bps up in TDPs. So that's a lot and goes back to your previous question about strength and velocities, right? So we're not diluting velocities, which gives us a lot of confidence that it correlates a lot with the household penetration gains we're seeing as well. It's not just about that consolidation. If you look at the other 2 shelves in which we are operating, creamers or ambient, the momentum keeps building. So it's not just a consolidation.

Now as you rightly said, our focus is in driving category penetration. We are obsessed by it. And with 70% of head space of penetration in front of us, that's what we're doing. And then the rest is about executing the playbook and investing behind the innovation, Andrew. Really, really -- we are really, really decisive and optimistic about what fibers and functionality can do in the U.S., if your question was more towards the U.S. and I think it is. This could be the turning point that we're expecting for North America.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala with Jefferies.

Kaumil Gajrawala

I guess the big question is trying to understand the impacts on logistics into '27 as best as we can. It sounds like a little bit from your commentary that maybe -- it was obviously prices moved up very quickly and they're hitting 4Q very substantially. But it also sounded like it's temporary in some ways. So I'm just kind of curious on -- is this -- are some of these fees a catch-up costs or something else going on? Or really any insights that we can get into the beginning of '27 related to what's happening with costs?

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Thank you, Kaumil. Jean-Christophe, I'll take that. Allow me to start by unpacking your question on the why now, how much are we guiding -- revising or guiding, and so what, including going into 2027. So first, why now? You're right. Up to quarter 3, we have demonstrated our resilience by our ability to absorb higher costs related to the Middle East conflict, mainly on logistics and packaging. And that resilience is what drove our robust delivery both in Q2 and Q3. Now however, in the course of quarter 3, like many of our CPG peers, we have seen an additional and quite sudden inflation acceleration, specifically in U.S. freight and fuel.

Let me just give one illustration. The U.S. diesel price increased by 23.8% just between last Monday, October 26, and the last time we spoke on July 22. If I step back and look at the full year '26, this latest diesel price point is 83% above what it was on January 5, and 2/3 of this growth nearly happened after July. So yes, it has been pretty sudden.

So what this means is, first, our quarter 3 EBITDA would have been higher without this. And it also explains why this is this last wave of inflation that has now exceeded our capacity to offset, hence, the timing of our revised bottom line guidance into the quarter 4.

So what's up for quarter 4? I think I already covered it, perhaps giving you 2 data points. When it comes to the Middle East conflict cost pressure in E&I, it now represents more than 100 basis points of our full year total company net adjusted EBITDA margin. That's data point number one.

Data point number two, to illustrate our freight and fuel challenge in North America, we now expect our freight to customer per liter sold in the U.S. to be in quarter 4, 12.5% higher than the average of H1 '26. So that gives you a little bit of what we are seeing.

If I now go to your question on the beginning of '27, specifically. Honestly, we are informed and humbled by the 2026 journey. So we currently project 2027, both on key cost of goods sold and logistics-like items to be a little bit at the worst half '26, reflecting both the latest energy raw impact price increases that we have got, as well as the highest points of fuel and freight in the U.S.

So to your point, are we planning or are we projecting an ease up of those cost inflation at the beginning of '27? Not at all. And that's why we are taking prices in the way Daniel just described, which is selectively and with innovation.

Operator

Our next question comes from Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

Max Andrew Gumport

So you continue to show that your growth playbook is really having success, both in Europe and International, and in North America. I'm curious for your view on whether a lot of the growth you're getting from this playbook is onetime in nature and presents tough comparisons versus how much of it is sustainable? And how much of this growth rate that you're seeing both in Europe and North America could continue into '27 at this very attractive rate?

Daniel Ordonez

Thank you, Max. Good to hear you this morning. Very good question. I tell you how we're looking at this. We're looking generalized momentum, and we're looking at this as we're only getting started. Why am I saying that? A couple of other data points that are not in the deck.

If you look at our volume growth year-on-year for quarter 3, excluding China, we're growing at 15%. If you're looking at volume growth, excluding China, for the year-to-date, we're growing at almost 10%. So there's something there that shows that we're gaining traction that perfectly correlates with household penetration. We're growing household penetration, as you saw in the deck in all our markets and in both regions. That tells us that there are tailwinds that we are catching, but also we are generating. And as you know very well, household penetration is not something that goes in and out from a month-to-month basis. There are weights and there are trends. So when we look at 70% head space penetration in front of us, we like to think that we are here that this momentum will stick.

On top of that, you add 2 incremental points, Max, before going into some color on the segments. Number one, I'm sure you see like us, there is industry generalized momentum for out-of-home. And you see how much we're growing in out-of-home at the moment. So that tailwind favors our strategy. That's number one.

And number two, the innovation that you see here are not one hit wonders. Everything we have launched is sticking as the necessary velocities to stay and they continue to gain traction, whether it's the Matcha range, the flavored Baristas and now the fibers. So all of that combined makes us look with optimism at the category development in the future.

You would have heard us talking about us not positioning ourselves anymore as an alternative. I think that what we hear from consumers today is that we are a choice, and we're really moving away from this binary dairy versus plant-based debate. And we're really, really moving into what's the right flavor, texture, performance and nutrition for what people drink, right? So that's the way in which we see it generally. And we're not stopping until we'll become the world's culturally favored drink, Max. That's what we're seeing and building a beverage company, which is the kind of lingo that JC and I love using.

Both regions, same thing. Perhaps in the case of North America, in the U.S., I will need to double-click on distribution, right? There is a very, very significant distribution to be gained still, and a reconfiguration of the retail shelves, and we're only getting started there. So when you see 50% of the new items going to hit shelves in the coming weeks, it gives me hope that the shelves in the retail space in North America will look increasingly similar to the ones we can see when we go to London or Berlin.

Max Andrew Gumport

Great. And then just turning back to pricing. Would it be possible to quantify specifically in North America, just the magnitude of the price increase that you've communicated to your customers already that will become effective in 1Q? Because I can imagine a wide range of outcomes depending on how much of this outsized inflation you are looking to offset.

Daniel Ordonez

Yes, of course. I will -- sorry, I will sound like a scratch record here. The sufficient one, Max, to cover for the cost inflation, of course, and it depends. As JC alluded as well, it is selective. It is quite surgical. It's not a wide canvas price increase and a lot is skewed towards the innovation and the reframing on pack. So I hate to disappoint you, but I'm not going to provide you a number, but it's material. It's not insignificant.

Operator

Our next question comes from Tom Palmer with JPMorgan.

Thomas Palmer

I know inflation has been a big focus already, but I did have a follow-up. When it comes to the 4Q COGS inflation you've noted, how much of that kind of reflects the full burden of elevated spot prices today for things like diesel and freight versus, say, contracts or hedges delaying some of the step-up into 2027?

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Thank you, Tom. Let me reiterate, it's -- the revised guidance is a combo of both the continued Middle East conflict impact on E&I, as well as the very significant further logistic inflation in the U.S., both freight and fuel. So it's not accumulated. As we said, we proudly strongly delivered in quarter 2 and quarter 3, which shows the resilience of our business model at the time where we are creating growth momentum. So nothing accumulated. This is the tipping point has been what has happened in U.S. logistics over the summer, specifically after the month of July. And we are now also projecting that to continue for the beginning of 2027, as I answered earlier.

Thomas Palmer

Okay. Understood. And there was mention of pricing being under review in Europe. Maybe just a review of the conversation up to this point has been very U.S.-centric in terms of inflationary pressure. Maybe just a review of kind of what you're seeing when it comes to Europe on the inflationary front and kind of how you think through pricing there if this kind of price pack architecture bent would also be more of the focus?

Daniel Ordonez

Yes. Thank you so much, Tom. I think you should be reading both regions in the same vein. Perhaps there is an internal lag in the process. And the very obvious thing that you all guys know. I mean, we have a much bigger, stronger and more resilient business in Europe and International, right? So in the mix of the way we see it internally, we are reviewing how to continue to strengthen the business. We're not ready to communicate in this call, but we haven't communicated yet to customers, right? But we will make no mistake, we will protect margins. And you can see from the color of this call what we are prepared to do.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

Dara Mohsenian

Just a bit more detail around cost and pricing. I know we've had a bunch of questions on it. But just to confirm, the revision of full year EBITDA this year, it sounds like that's more entirely driven by costs. So the $7 million revision at your midpoint, that's just cost related? Or are there any other puts and takes you would call out? And as we think about next year, is that sort of a good run rate to think about for the first few quarters of next year until you cycle this? Just trying to get an understanding of if the Q4 cost pressure is sort of similar on a quarterly basis as we move into '27?

And just on pricing, I understand you won't quantify it for us exactly today, but is it designed to offset most of the cost increase? Is it designed to offset it on a dollar basis or a margin basis? Just conceptually help us understand how you're managing pricing relative to that cost, understanding that the cost inflation is pretty volatile here. But how are you thinking about that conceptually?

And then last, just we haven't heard a lot about incremental productivity, and you guys have made nice efforts on that front over the last couple of years here. So is there a renewed emphasis on productivity or new programs on that front that can help offset some of this cost pressure?

Jean-Christophe Flatin

Thank you so much, Dara, for this sandwich multiple questions. So I will unpack it. So first of all, is the guide down fully related to cost? The answer is yes. There is nothing else that we have factored that in. As I explained, it's really the sudden and abrupt U.S. logistic inflation, specifically post August that is driving that, nothing else.

Question number two is help us look at how are you thinking of 2027? So of course, a few preambles. Number one, as you know, we never guide on next year in our quarter 3 earnings call, and I will not deviate from that. Number two, you're spot on, the current business context remains super volatile and unpredictable. So whatever I'm about to say is with what we know today and only that, and we will need to continue to have a great deal of agility to navigate that.

Now if you allow me to reformulate your question into what are your key intents and assumptions as you start thinking about next year? Number one, growth momentum is one of the scarcest assets in CPG right now, and Oatly has it currently. Our playbook is working, and we will now further -- it will be further completed by the Fiber launch. So what we intend to do in the coming quarters is to continue to fuel meticulously this growth momentum, first, because it's precious; number two, because our [ D&A ] investment is working. So of course, we all need to keep in mind as you model that we will be lapping a much stronger 2026 comp base. So -- but that I don't need to tell you.

Second, we will take pricing with innovation selectively. I'll come back to that. Third, when it comes to the COGS and logistic cost assumptions, at the moment, as I said, history has taught us and taught us in 2026 to be humble and conservative. So at the moment, what we are planning is the worst of '26 going into 2027. So that's what we have.

Your third question was, how do you calibrate your price increase specifically in the U.S. because here it's already out there. I will just repeat what Daniel very well said. It's designed to cover this cost inflation, no more, no less. So that's the way we look at that.

And finally, I'm super happy that you bring the productivity question. Allow me to step back first. When we reflect with Daniel and MJ, we are at a moment in our company history where we are creating growth momentum, and we are delivering now structurally profitable growth. And therefore, we view our job as accelerating this value creation despite the external challenging environment. We passionately turn around this business, and we are not prepared to slow down the value creation journey we have initiated. So what does it mean?

First of all, it means that we will continue to deliver COGS and supply chain cost progress. I think the last 3 years journey you were kind enough to refer to has demonstrated our ability to do it and we will continue it as a permanent. Second, when it comes to G&A, specifically, we are chasing productivity and overhead,

and we do that on 2 fronts.

First, we are currently decisively attacking all remaining inefficiencies in our organization, in the way we work, in anything that is not directly related to sales, consumer saving, customer saving and being really at the forefront of delivering our mission. The second lever is continuing our duty to boost the impact of our investment. Every penny we invest is precious, and it is our job to maximize this investment.

Beyond that, you will see us continue to very actively drive all mix levers, channels, customer, portfolio, innovation. And as we said, we will implement pricing. So all of this combined, you see us continuing decisively to fuel the precious growth momentum we have created in order to accelerate our value creation.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Samu Wilhelmsson with Nordea.

Samu Wilhelmsson

Kind of 2 questions regarding the cash flow part of the business. You, MJ, clarified wonderfully there that you expect Q4 cash flow to improve lower CapEx and no repeat of the inventory build and better payables. But are you able to quantify a bit more on the expected contribution from each of the 3 items? And maybe also that if the $18 million Q3 free cash outflow, how much would you consider timing related for that versus underlying cash consumption that will not reverse? So that's the first question. We can take that first.

Marie-Jose David

Sam, this is MJ, Marie-Jose. So let me take. Can you hear me well? Just checking.

Samu Wilhelmsson

Yes, I can hear you.

Marie-Jose David

Perfect. So let me start with Q3, right? So as you mentioned, a negative $18.4 million in free cash flow. But I'm sure you noticed the nice progress in the cash management since 2023. And you can see that, by the way, in the deck, right, where Q3 2023 was $49 million of cash burn, and 2024 was $27 million of cash burn.

Also, if you recall, when we discussed back in July, we mentioned those phasings. So clearly, what you should recall into -- going into Q3 numbers is that most of it is a phasing impact. And it's a phasing impact, as we discussed from CapEx timing shift, which we called in Q2 that we will see that going into Q3 because don't forget, right? When we were in Q2, we told you that our free cash flow outflow were coming better than expected because of the timing. So one was driven by CapEx. The other one, as we called in our prepared remarks, was driven by larger inventories because we are building some innovation, so inventory in order to ship that in Q4 and later.

And the last thing is the calendar switch that we had from a payable standpoint. So most of the impact of the $18 million are very much driven outside of the average that you should consider from the timing.

Going into Q4, what we expect from an improvement standpoint? First, you should expect a year-over-year improvement as well as a sequential improvement. Where this will come from? Smaller CapEx because, again, Q3 was higher than what we expected, and we don't expect that to repeat in Q4. The inventory build, as we just -- as I just told, which was more than $11 million is not as well expected to be repeated in Q4. And last, the benefits of payables, we expect that to see in Q4.

So again, what I want you to keep in mind is that cash management improvement, year-to-date cash flow in line with our expectations, fully funded, confidence towards our trajectory of free cash flow positive totally intact and supporting the trajectory of EBITDA growth as well as we used to say profitable growth in general.

And I hope I answered to your Q3 and Q4 questions.

Samu Wilhelmsson

Yes. Yes, indeed. Understood. Maybe just a follow-up because you ended Q3 with $23 million of cash and then obviously, the unused RCF. But I guess the free cash flow by all means would also be negative for Q4 given your guidance. So do you have any, let's say, minimal liquidity level you would say comfortable operating with? And how much liquidity buffer you would expect to have before achieving that positive free cash flow?

Marie-Jose David

So the how much, Samu, I'm not going to answer. If the question is, are you comfortable in order to operate with the cash you have in the bank, the answer is 100% yes.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to John Baumgartner for any closing remarks.

John Baumgartner

Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for joining today. Any follow-up, feel free to reach out. Have a great day. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.