AerCap (AER) Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026: Nâng dự báo EPS lên 20,70 USD

AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE: AER) đã báo cáo lợi nhuận điều chỉnh và tỷ suất sinh lời kỷ lục trong quý 3 năm 2026, nhờ doanh thu cho thuê tàu bay tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ, đóng góp từ hoạt động bảo dưỡng và lợi nhuận từ bán tài sản. Ban lãnh đạo đã nâng dự báo EPS điều chỉnh cho cả năm, đồng thời nhấn mạnh tình trạng hạn chế nguồn cung tiếp tục diễn ra đối với các tài sản hàng không.

Các điểm chính

• Lợi nhuận ròng điều chỉnh quý 3 năm 2026 đạt 1,09 tỷ USD, tương đương mức kỷ lục 6,56 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu. Tỷ suất lợi nhuận trên vốn chủ sở hữu (ROE) điều chỉnh đạt 22%.
• Lợi nhuận ròng theo chuẩn GAAP đạt 949 triệu USD, tương đương 6,17 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu, trong khi doanh thu cho thuê cơ bản đạt tổng cộng 1,698 tỷ USD.
• AerCap đã bán 70 tài sản sở hữu với giá 1,1 tỷ USD, tạo ra 353 triệu USD lợi nhuận ròng và biên lợi nhuận bán tài sản không dùng đòn bẩy đạt khoảng 45%.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã nâng dự báo EPS điều chỉnh cả năm 2026 lên khoảng 20,70 USD, chưa tính đến bất kỳ khoản lợi nhuận bán tài sản bổ sung nào trong quý 4.
• Công ty đã mua lại 783 triệu USD cổ phiếu trong quý 3 và hơn 2,2 tỷ USD trong 9 tháng đầu năm, tương đương khoảng 10% số cổ phiếu đang lưu hành tại thời điểm đầu năm 2026.
• Danh mục đặt hàng của AerCap đã được cho thuê hết đến cuối năm 2027 và cho thuê 80% đến cuối năm 2028. Thời hạn cho thuê trung bình còn lại vượt quá 7 năm.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Nhu cầu đối với các tài sản của AerCap tiếp tục vượt quá nguồn cung hiện có, hỗ trợ giá cho thuê và các cơ hội bán tài sản. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết 83% danh mục tàu bay cho thuê là các tàu bay công nghệ mới.

Công ty đã bổ sung 131 tàu bay mới vào danh mục đặt hàng trong năm 2026. Các vị trí bàn giao bắt đầu từ năm 2027, với danh mục đặt hàng đã được cho thuê hết đến năm 2027 và cho thuê 80% đến năm 2028.

Hoạt động bán tài sản tiếp tục tăng trưởng mạnh một cách bất thường. AerCap đã tạo ra khoảng 866 triệu USD lợi nhuận trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026. Ban lãnh đạo giải thích mức bán tài sản cao gần đây một phần là do chiến lược giảm tỷ trọng rủi ro tại Trung Quốc, vốn đã giảm đáng kể trong 4 năm qua.

Bảng cân đối kế toán tiếp tục duy trì tính thanh khoản cao. AerCap báo cáo thanh khoản đạt khoảng 22 tỷ USD, bao gồm khoảng 2,5 tỷ USD tiền mặt, 10 tỷ USD hạn mức tín dụng thấu chi/quay vòng và 3 tỷ USD hạn mức cam kết khác. Tỷ lệ đáp ứng nguồn vốn so với nhu cầu sử dụng vốn đạt 1,8 lần, tương ứng lượng tiền mặt dư thừa bảo đảm khoảng 10 tỷ USD.

Việc hoàn trả vốn cho cổ đông tiếp tục là ưu tiên hàng đầu song song với đầu tư vào các tài sản công nghệ mới. Kể từ khi hoàn tất thương vụ thâu tóm GECAS vào cuối năm 2021, AerCap đã cam kết hơn 30 tỷ USD cho các tài sản công nghệ mới và mua lại gần 40% số cổ phiếu đang lưu hành. Công ty nắm giữ xếp hạng tín nhiệm BBB+ và Baa1.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo đã nâng dự báo EPS điều chỉnh cả năm 2026 lên khoảng 20,70 USD. Mức này bao gồm khoảng 16,00 USD EPS điều chỉnh không tính lợi nhuận bán tài sản và 4,70 USD từ các khoản lợi nhuận đã ghi nhận trong 9 tháng đầu năm. Dự báo này không bao gồm bất kỳ khoản lợi nhuận bán tài sản bổ sung nào trong quý 4.

AerCap hiện kỳ vọng doanh số bán tài sản cả năm 2026 sẽ vượt 5 tỷ USD, cao hơn khoảng dự báo 4 tỷ đến 5 tỷ USD trước đó của ban lãnh đạo. Giám đốc Tài chính (CFO) Peter Juhas cho biết doanh số bán hàng năm thông thường nằm trong khoảng 2,5 tỷ đến 3 tỷ USD, mặc dù kết quả tương lai sẽ phụ thuộc vào điều kiện thị trường.

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng thuế suất thực tế cho năm 2026 vào khoảng 15%, không bao gồm các khoản thuế phát sinh riêng biệt.

Đóng góp bảo dưỡng ròng dự kiến sẽ trở lại mức bình thường khoảng 50 triệu USD mỗi quý vào năm 2027, so với 453 triệu USD trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026. Mức chuẩn hóa dự kiến này phản ánh đóng góp mạnh mẽ một cách bất thường từ các khoản thanh toán kết thúc hợp đồng thuê, mua lại khoản bảo dưỡng, hoàn nhập quỹ dự phòng và hoạt động chuyển giao trong năm 2026.

Chi tiêu vốn bằng tiền mặt dự kiến đạt khoảng 1,5 tỷ USD trong thời gian còn lại của năm 2026. Ban lãnh đạo dự báo khoảng 5,5 tỷ đến 6,0 tỷ USD cho năm 2027, tùy thuộc vào các khoản bổ sung, sự chậm trễ bàn giao và các cơ hội bán và thuê lại tiềm năng.

Chênh lệch lãi suất ròng (net spread) đạt 8,1% trong quý 3. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng chỉ số này sẽ duy trì ở mức gần hiện tại trong vài quý tới trước khi có khả năng tăng dần khi tàu bay được cho thuê trở lại, được bù đắp một phần bởi chi phí lãi vay cao hơn.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

Giá nhiên liệu bay ở mức cao đang tạo ra áp lực ngắn hạn về khả năng sinh lời và thanh khoản cho một số hãng hàng không. Ban lãnh đạo nhận định các hãng hàng không giá rẻ chặng dài khai thác các đường bay khoảng 3,5 đến 5 giờ chịu rủi ro cao hơn vì nhiên liệu chiếm tỷ trọng lớn hơn trong cơ cấu chi phí của họ.

AerCap cho biết giá nhiên liệu duy trì ở mức cao có thể làm giảm tần suất sử dụng các tàu bay cũ hơn, ít tiết kiệm nhiên liệu hơn. Tuy nhiên, ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng tác động đến danh mục của mình là hạn chế nhờ tập trung vào các tàu bay công nghệ mới và khả năng kiếm tiền từ các tài sản cũ hơn thông qua các hoạt động khai thác động cơ và phụ tùng.

Biên lợi nhuận bán tài sản có thể biến động đáng kể theo quý tùy thuộc vào các tài sản được bán. Biên lợi nhuận không dùng đòn bẩy đạt 45% trong quý 3, so với 20% trong quý trước đó và 24% trong quý trước đó nữa.

Việc thực thi bàn giao tàu bay vẫn rất quan trọng. Ban lãnh đạo nhận định việc chứng nhận MAX 10 của Boeing là tích cực, nhưng tiến trình cạnh tranh có ý nghĩa phụ thuộc vào việc bàn giao tàu bay ở quy mô lớn trong 4 đến 5 năm tới.

Điểm nổi bật trong phần Q&A với chuyên gia phân tích

• Giá trị tàu bay và giá cho thuê: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết kết quả bán tài sản trong quý 3 của AerCap thể hiện sức mạnh trong danh mục của công ty. Giá cho thuê tàu bay dự kiến bàn giao trong hai năm tới nhìn chung được điều chỉnh theo lãi suất theo các điều khoản hợp đồng.
• Phân bổ vốn và đòn bẩy: AerCap vẫn giữ mục tiêu đòn bẩy 2,7 lần, mặc dù đòn bẩy điều chỉnh vào cuối quý là 2,0 lần. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết sẽ tiếp tục cân bằng giữa mua tài sản, mua lại cổ phiếu và sức mạnh tài chính dựa trên lợi nhuận kỳ vọng của cổ đông.
• Nhu cầu động cơ: Tổng Giám đốc (CEO) Aengus Kelly kỳ vọng nhu cầu đối với các động cơ công nghệ mới sẽ duy trì ổn định, dẫn ra các giới hạn thời gian hoạt động trên cánh (time-on-wing) liên tục trong môi trường vận hành khắc nghiệt. Ông lưu ý rằng điều kiện có thể khác biệt đối với một số loại động cơ cũ hơn.
• Thanh lý tàu bay: Ban lãnh đạo không kỳ vọng sẽ có một làn sóng thanh lý diện rộng, đặc biệt là đối với tàu bay thân rộng. Việc thanh lý một số tàu bay thân hẹp cũ hơn có thể xảy ra nếu giá nhiên liệu tiếp tục ở mức cao.
• Cơ hội bán và thuê lại (Sale-and-leaseback): AerCap dự kiến các cuộc thảo luận với các khách hàng hãng hàng không sẽ gia tăng nếu áp lực thanh khoản tiếp tục kéo dài, nhưng các giao dịch phải đáp ứng các ngưỡng lợi nhuận của công ty.
• Thị trường tàu bay thân rộng: Ban lãnh đạo mô tả nhu cầu tàu bay thân rộng là đặc biệt mạnh mẽ nhưng nhấn mạnh kỷ luật về giá và các cơ chế bảo vệ chống trượt giá khi xem xét các đơn đặt hàng mới.

Toàn bộ biên bản cuộc họp kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the AerCap Holdings N.V. Q3 2026 Financial Results Call. Today's conference is being recorded, and a transcript will be available following the call on the company's website. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Adi Padba, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Adi Padva

Thank you, operator, and welcome to AerCap's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. With me today are CEO, Angus Kelly; and our CFO, Pete Juhas. Please note that today's call may contain forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements.

Further information concerning these issues can be found in AerCap's latest earnings release and our filings with the SEC. A copy of the earnings release and conference call presentation are available on our website at aercap.com. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements, except required by law. I'll now turn the call over to our CEO, Angus Kelly.

Aengus Kelly

Thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2026 earnings call. AerCap delivered another excellent quarter with record performance across a number of key financial metrics, leading us to raise our full year 2026 guidance. Our results . Once again demonstrates the resilience and stability of the global platform we have built over 2 decades as a public company.

Starting with our financial highlights on Slide 3. We delivered record adjusted earnings per share of $6.56 in the third quarter, translating to a record adjusted return on equity of 22%. The Demand for our assets remain strong and continues to outstrip available supply. While this dynamic is supporting lease rates and asset sale opportunities, AerCap's long-term performance is driven by our ability to actively manage and optimize assets throughout their life cycle.

It is this capability that continues to differentiate our platform. and underpins our strong view of the business going forward. We continue to return significant capital to shareholders in the third quarter. repurchasing $783 million worth of shares and just over $2.2 billion year-to-date, representing approximately 10% of AerCap's outstanding shares at the beginning of the year.

Reflecting our performance and positive outlook, we are raising our full year 2026 earnings guidance to $20.70 per share, excluding any additional gains on asset sales in the fourth quarter. Turning to our core leasing business and current industry dynamics. While our discussions with customers focus on long-term fleet planning decisions, those determine capacity here in the future. Higher get fuel prices have created uncertainty for some airlines and are impacting their near-term profitability.

As jet fuel remains at these elevated levels, we would expect airlines to seek proactive measures to strengthen liquidity and protect topologies. Our platform is uniquely positioned to navigate challenges the airline industry faces. And in many instances, this type of backdrop can create opportunity for AerCap such as through incremental sale and leaseback activities.

Today, our order book is fully placed through the end of 2027 and 80% placed through the end of 2028. The -- and this is taking into account the 131 new aircraft added to our order book this year. Combined with an average remaining lease term of over 7 years, this gives us tremendous visibility into future earnings and underscores the durability of our business model.

Turning to Slide 4. Let me begin by saying that we've continued to take advantage of the very strong secondary markets to the quality of our portfolio. During the third quarter, we sold 70 owned assets for $1.1 billion of sales proce -- at an unlevered gain on sale margin of 45%, equivalent to 2.6x book equity. Today, 83% of our aircraft lease is comprised of new technology Fraser aircraft, a direct result of our continued focus on portfolio optimization for the last 15 years.

Turning to the growth of our order book. You've heard me say before that it cannot be a buyer at a seller's market at the same time. Yet, despite a high and constrained supply environment, we have significantly expanded our order book since 2024, and without compromising our return thresholds. Our scale and industry relationships have given us access to opportunities that others simply cannot reach.

Today, we have an order book of new technology aircraft with delivery positions beginning in 2027 that we believe will create substantial long-term shareholder value. Continuing with the theme of capital allocation. AerCap has been defined throughout its history by the balanced deployment of capital across growth, shareholder returns and financial strength. As we show on Slide 5, since the closing of the GECAS acquisition at the end of 2021, we have committed more than $30 billion to new technology assets, repurchased almost 40% of our outstanding shares and continued to strengthen our balance sheet.

Today, AerCap is a high investment-grade company with BBB+ Baa1 credit ratings. Turning to Slide 6. Our performance in 2022 demonstrates the successful execution of our strategy. Over that period, AerCap has delivered compound annual growth of 23% in adjusted earnings per share and 18% in book value per share. Our superior long-term returns are a result of a platform that combines global scale, unique information advantages, deep customer relationships and ownership of the most valuable aviation assets.

In closing, this business is not simply about buying, leasing and selling aircraft. It is about actively managing aviation assets throughout their life cycle, allocating capital where we see the most attractive returns and using our market leadership and expertise to create value at every stage of ownership. This is what makes AerCap's earnings power durable and continues to drive long-term value creation for our shareholders. I will now hand the call over to Pete to review the financials in more detail.

Peter Juhas

Thanks, Gus. Good morning, everyone. AerCap delivered another record quarter, and I'll start by reviewing our financial results on Slide 7. Our GAAP net income for the third quarter was $949 million or $6.17 per share. The impact of purchase accounting adjustments was $71 million for the quarter or $0.46 a share. That includes lease premium amortization of $23 million, maintenance rights amortization of $35 million related to maintenance revenue and maintenance rights amortization of $14 million related to leasing expenses. .

The net tax effect of all these items was $11 million or $0.07 a share. As a result, our adjusted net income for the third quarter was $1.09 billion or $6.56 per share. That represents adjusted ROE of 22% for the quarter.

Turning to Slide 8, I'll briefly go through the main drivers that affected our results for the quarter. Basic lease rents were $1.698 billion reflecting continued growth in our fleet and a strong leasing environment. Maintenance revenues remained elevated during the third quarter at $267 million before purchase accounting adjustments. Our net maintenance contribution, which is maintenance revenue less leasing expenses after taking purchase accounting adjustments into account, was $184 million for the quarter.

As we've noted previously, maintenance contribution is event-driven and can vary significantly from quarter-to-quarter. Our net maintenance contribution has been particularly strong this year, which is based on a number of factors including the timing of end of lease compensation, maintenance reserve releases, buyouts and transition activity. We would expect net maintenance contribution to return to a more normal level of $50 million a quarter in 2027.

Net gain on sale of assets was $353 million for the third quarter. The sales environment remains very strong, and we sold 70 of our owned assets for total sales revenue of $1.1 billion with an unlevered gain on sale margin of approximately 45%. The Other income was $97 million, primarily consisting of interest income and management fee income. In the third quarter, we also recognized $27 million of other income related to sales of investments.

Interest expense was $475 million for the third quarter Leasing expenses were $131 million, including $14 million of maintenance rights amortization. Income from equity method investments was $73 million in the third quarter. that was higher than normal due to income from our SES joint venture. Income tax expense was $123 million for the quarter, reflecting an effective tax rate of 12.3%.

The that's lower than usual due to some discrete tax items. Excluding those items, for the full year, we would expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 15%. Turning to Slide 9. Our liquidity position continues to be very strong. As of September 30, our total sources of liquidity were approximately $22 billion. This includes approximately $2.5 billion of cash $10 billion of revolvers and $3 billion of other committed facilities as well as estimated asset sales and operating cash flow.

Our sources to uses coverage ratio was 1.8x, which reflects excess cash coverage of around $10 billion. Our adjusted leverage ratio at the end of September remained similar to last quarter at 2x net debt to equity. Our operating cash flow was $1.8 billion for the quarter. Our secured debt-to-total assets ratio decreased to 8%, down from 9% last quarter. Our average cost of debt was 4.2%, the same as last quarter.

During the third quarter, we bought back 5.3 million shares for a total of approximately $783 million. We also announced a new $1 billion share repurchase program in September. As Gus mentioned, for the first 9 months of 2026, we returned more than $2.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases, representing approximately 10% of the shares outstanding at the beginning of the year. In addition, we made our tenth consecutive quarterly dividend payment.

We have increased our dividend each year and have paid over $500 million in dividends since the introduction of our dividend in 2024. Turning to Slide 10. Following our continued strong performance during the third quarter, we're raising our full year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance -- we now expect adjusted EPS of approximately $20.70 for the full year. This reflects approximately $16 of adjusted EPS, excluding gains on sale.

It also includes $4.70 of gains on sale recognized during the first 9 months of the year. It is before any additional gains on sale for the fourth quarter. The principal drivers of the outperformance relative to our previous guidance have been strong gains in asset sales, higher net maintenance contribution and higher other income. We generated approximately $866 million of gains on sale during the first 9 months of 2026, including a record $353 million in the third quarter.

Last quarter, I said we expected asset sales for the full year to be in the range of $4 billion to $5 billion. However, based on our performance to date and the continued strength of the sales market, we currently expect full year 2026 asset sales to come in over $5 billion. Our net maintenance contribution has been particularly strong for the first 9 months of this year at $453 million. As I mentioned earlier, we would expect it to return to a more normal level of around $50 million a quarter in 2027.

We Other income was also higher than normal at $266 million for the first 9 months of the year. In closing, AerCap continued its strong performance with another record quarter -- we generated adjusted EPS of $6.56, adjusted ROE of 22% and gain on sale of $353 million. Today, we're raising our full year adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $20.70 before including any additional fourth quarter gains on sale.

This positive outlook and strong performance to date reflect the strength of our platform, the quality of our portfolio and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. With that, operator, we can open up the call for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

And we'll go first to Jamie Baker with JPMorgan.

Phần hỏi đáp

Jamie Baker

So as 1 lessor that was here in New York last week for airline economics, mentioned that certain appraisers believe certain midlife values and lease rates have peaked a little bit more on narrowbodies and widebodies. And I don't know, it sounds plausible given what's happening with fuel and spirits shut down and capacity cuts and all that.

But the less oring question Mid East based, by the way, specifically said they're not seeing that and the appraisers are wrong. We're not uniquely concerned, but I don't know, directionally, Mark, and I wanted to ask, which side you come down on in this regard?

Aengus Kelly

Thanks, Jamie. Well, I can only talk to AerCap and you can see in the quarter what we did with selling a wide array of assets of 70 aircraft and generate a 2.6x book equity in our gain and sale. Now that's a combination of having the right assets. We've been looking at this portfolio for 15 years, always every day. Where do we want the portfolio to be in 10 years, not tomorrow, not the day after, not yesterday. -- and looking at the trends at the -- where the industry is going, and that shapes our portfolio for the future. And we're highly confident that the assets we have are very well positioned for the future, and that's evidenced by the results that you see this quarter. And in fact, mover quarter for a long, long time.

Jamie Baker

Excellent. And then for Pete, if we could just quickly revisit financial policy. Obviously, the model is working. Leverage is nicely below 2.7x target. But any updated thoughts since well, basically since we spoke 90 days ago, in terms of tightening this maybe to 2.5x in making a stronger argument for low A ratings, I mean, with base rates obviously up and spread dispersion increasing. It just seems to market that the benefit of borrowing costs within a rating would be, I don't know, increasingly advantageous -- thanks in advance.

Peter Juhas

Sure. Thanks, Jamie. Yes, look, we would welcome an upgrade. And I think the performance of the company in many ways, you can see how strongly we've performed over many years would certainly merit and upgrade -- that being said, we haven't changed any of our policies. Our stated target of leverage is 2.7x. But as you noted, we've been running well below that for a while.

The main driver of that really has been just the extremely strong earnings that we've produced quarter after quarter over the last year. and even before that, but particularly this year. And even though we have been buying back a lot of stock, 10% of the stock so far year-to-date nonetheless, just given how much capital we've been generating, the leverage ratio has continued to stay where it has been at around I do think that, that will increase going forward. I mean, that is our plan.

But obviously, given the strong results, that is depressing that leverage ratio.

Operator

We'll go next to Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch

Great. Gusan, Peter, as you look at the combination of the order book, which really does start picking up in Q4, the Spirit and Frontier and the other kind of opportunities that might arise. How do you think about sort of CapEx over the coming year or 2? And how does that translate into kind of -- or does that translate into growth in dollars of basic lease rents. with that?

Peter Juhas

So Moshe, I mean, if we look at CapEx for fourth quarter, it should be -- cash CapEx should be around $1.5 billion for the rest of this year. And then around $6 billion, 2027, maybe $5.5 billion or so. And we could add to that. Obviously, I mean, you've seen, particularly on the engine side, those tend to be shorter in. And so I wouldn't be surprised if you saw some additions to that from there. And then if there are other things that we can do in terms of sale leasebacks maybe not on to that. Obviously, on the other side, you can see some delays as well as you're well aware. But roughly, those are the numbers that we're looking at over the next couple of years.

Aengus Kelly

I would add there. Mosaic I would add there, if you just step back and look at the company today, we're generating record ROEs we are generating record cash flow, but the balance sheet is a fortress ology. It's never been stronger. 2:1 debt equity, high investment-grade company, BBB+, Baa1, and returning massive amounts to shareholders, but finally still, we have the ability tomorrow if we wished to deploy $40 billion approximately of capital if we wanted to. We have $3.7 billion of available excess equity, you lever that up at $14 billion. It's a very enviable position for the company to be in, and it hasn't come at the sacrifice of any shareholder returns at all. .

Moshe Orenbuch

Clearly, clearly. And the other -- the follow-up question that I wanted to ask also kind of dovetails into that because you've been selling a higher percentage of the fleet, I guess, at higher games. And you mentioned that probably going to stay high in Q4 -- is there -- as you kind of look at the fleet and our thinking about that optimization, is there a way to think about like how you -- what percentage of the fleet you enter 2027 that could be subject to that?

Is there just any way that we could sort of think about how to how to think about the percentage of the fleet that's up for sale in the future.

Aengus Kelly

Moshe, I'll over to Pete in a second. But first of all, the reason we sell assets is always with the long-term strategy of where do we want the portfolio to be in 10, 15 years' time. It's because of that long dated thinking 15 years ago that the portfolio is where it is today. 83% focused on new tech assets of race and freight is the strongest part of the market evolve and 1 that we expect to grow. .

But I would say sales have been elevated in the last year or 2, driven in some part by our focus on reducing our Chinese exposure, which has fallen very significantly over the course of the last 4 years. And I'd expect us to go into '27, '28 that those sales to Chinese of Chinese assets will slow down as our exposure has reduced materially there. Pete, anything you want to add?

Peter Juhas

Yes. I mean, I mentioned, Moshe, in my prepared remarks that we expect to have sales of over $5 billion this year. So that is an extraordinary number. more typically, we would generally guide to $2.5 billion to $3 billion of sales. So I would expect at this point, it probably normalizes to something like that. But -- but it really depends. And obviously, it could be higher. The market has been extremely strong, and we have been selling into that Sure. .

Operator

We'll go next to Shannon Dauder with Deutsche Bank.

Shannon Doherty

But it's hard to imagine that lease rates go up much more from here if the high fuel price environment lasts through next year, which assets are being most impacted today -- or is it possible that the supply are means so concerning that lease rates can move higher?

Aengus Kelly

I'd say Shan, where lease rate goal is more a function of interest rates. So lease rates go up as interest rates go up. I can tell you that now, any aircraft in our order book that's leased to deliver in the next 2 years. If interest rates go up, it goes up with them. That happens. It's in the contracts -- in the stock market, if you are in assets heavily focused on older tech assets, that may be a more challenging market in the near term. .

But where AerCap is focused in the freight business, in the new tech in -- particularly in our engine business, we don't see that type of pressure. There will be the odd asset here and there if we have to take them back. But that's the general thrust of the business. I wouldn't say that for AerCap's asset base as we look out over the next few years that I would see any significant movement in lease rates other than that, that's driven by interest rates, apart from the odd 1 here and there.

Shannon Doherty

And as my follow-up, 1 engine lessor recently noted that spare engine values could begin to come down, just given the large number of young narrowbodies being torn down for engines and spare parts and not hitting the market. I mean we're at something like over 100 narrowbodies that have been parted out. It's pretty amazing. Do you agree with this view?

Aengus Kelly

Look, we are by far in a way the biggest engine lessor in the world, and we have a lot more visibility than anyone else. And I think we are going to see sustained engine demand for a long time to come. The key to the valuation of the demand for engines will be can the time on way of new technology assets improved dramatically in harsh environments. .

And I think that is a long for the engine OEMs. I don't see that happening. There will be gradual improvements but I don't really see that happening. March environments 30 years ago were a minority of the global economy. But as emerging markets have boomed what we have seen is that a much greater portion of the global economy is focused in those countries that are parter climates. And I really don't see demand for new tech engines tapering off.

Then again, if you're in certain engine types that are all technology that had boost recently, then perhaps the statement you're saying could be true all right? But that's not where AerCap is focused. We've always looked to the long term in the future.

Operator

We'll go next to Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

Ronald Epstein

From the team. Maybe just 2 quick ones. As a follow-up to the previous question. I guess, what's your expectation just for aircraft retirements as we go into next year and the following year. There's some debate in the market if we're going to see some title wave of retirements or not? And then how would that impact you guys?

Aengus Kelly

I doubt we'll see a tide wave, particularly in widebodies. The wide-body market is extraordinarily strong. We're seeing customers overhaul A380 interiors. That says everything wrong right there. We're at most fuel-inefficient aircraft ever built, and it is being overhauled with $25 million interior cabinet spend. So that is all I can say about the wide-body market. I don't think I can say anything else about how strong it is. .

On the narrow bodies, I think it's fair to say, all right. Will we see large retirements and tightly . Probably not. We will see some for sure if oil stays high. But again, Ron, as it pertains to AerCap, as I mentioned, 83% of our book is Newtek, and it is a freight business and our exposure to the other assets is mainly focused on the high demand, most like the 737, A320, 330. So from our perspective, I don't see it having an impact on us.

But like everything in life Ron, you may have had guys who are out there buying different asset types, different asset quality, different maintenance standards a key really is when you're trans-- if an asset comes back to you, if you bought an asset of someone on the asset comes back and the maintenance return condition, if you don't have the expertise to manage maintenance term, to manage the paperwork to manage the transition from 1 jurisdiction to another, which is a very difficult thing to do.

Then I suspect that's where some guys could get caught out because not very, very few people have the infrastructure to rapidly and efficiently move aging assets around the world. We do, of course, and we do it more than anyone.

Ronald Epstein

Got you. Got you. And then maybe a question for Pete. Can you why is the maintenance revenues less leasing impairments going to be around $50 million annualized. You guys have usually been pretty ahead of this. Just trying to understand, is this a conservative view? Or how are you thinking about that?

Peter Juhas

Well, that's normally what we would expect over the long term to be around that number of $50 million and if I look back at, say, 2025, we were around $200 million for the full year in 2024. We are on $160 million. So it's in that ballpark. This year, it's been much higher and really that's driven by 3 key factors. The first is we've had a significant number of large end of lease payments on older assets this quarter but also throughout this year.

So that's contributed Second, we've had higher buyout income. So these are maintenance buyouts that we do on a mostly for older aircraft.

And third, we've had some lease terminations that result in an upfront release of maintenance reserves. And so it always depends upon the transactions that you have coming through each quarter. That's why it tends to bounce around. But all of those things have been quite strong this year. But over time, we expect those to normalize and get back down to that around $50 million net technical number per quarter.

Operator

We'll take our next question from John Godin with Citigroup.

John Godyn

Got obviously, financial distress is a topic again with fuel prices where they are and the prospect of escalation, I guess, in the Middle East, post the U.S. midterms, -- can you just do a bit of a round-the-world update on what you're seeing in different regions? And just give us a general temperature check on financial stress as you see it, if fuel stays here.

Aengus Kelly

Now of course, everyone says the solution to high oil, it's high oil. And ultimately, that will be true. But you are right. Of course, there are airlines in different parts of the world do face challenges. I would say not so much by geography. A lot of it is to do with the product offering that they have. For the most part, those airlines that are catering solely to an economy class low-fare model without the ability to offer a product that has some pricing in elasticity or demanding elasticity, those guys are struggling a bit.

So I'd say, and particularly where they have to fly long haul because it's not so bad if you're a Ryanair dancing around Europe where your average stage length is 2 hours. You're not really killing yourself with fuel if a low-fare model if you're a very low cost base. But if you fly in 5 hours, fuel is a much more important part of your network. So I would say the guys that we would be more concerned about is the longer haul for 3.5- to 5-hour stage lands, low-cost marble.

That's just under a bit of pressure because their customer base can only pay so much. But most of the airlines around the world are able to pass on to varying degrees, a reasonable proportion of the increase in fuel costs. If we look back of our history over the last 20-plus years as a public company, our bad debt cost or credit costs have averaged less than 1% a year.

So AerCap is uniquely positioned to move assets around the world because of the infrastructure if we have it to use different methods to monetize the assets, do we sell them? Do we put them into the engine business, do we put them into our part-out business, et cetera. And again, with the scale that we have around the world enables us to do things as simply others can't. And no 1 is wishing for the continuation of the war, of course, or high fuel prices and stress with our customers.

But in the past, that has sometimes presented opportunities for us, which we have been able to take advantage of.

John Godyn

That's a great overview. And just changing gears, could I revisit Aerobie and just get your latest thinking there? All the all the demands on power from AI, all those forecasts just keep going higher. And it seems like we're at a point where the rubber meets the road on that. So I'm curious where you guys stand.

Aengus Kelly

Sure. And I did reference that in the last call, and it's something we have looked at very closely for the whole for now 10 months. And there's a number of factors involved, as I referenced before, a longevity of demand, which is vital because it's a very expensive thing to do. The hurdle rate that an engine in AerCap the alternative use of that engine in AerCap has to get to -- is very high, as you can see from our results, the consistency of our results and then finding the right partners to do it.

We have had significant discussions -- now look, all that being said, of course, we're selling engines to people who are going into the Arbor business. And I would say this, of course, if you have power now, as I referenced on the prior call, if there is a significant premium, a very significant premium available to you right now with Power now. Whether that premium will be there, in 6, 8, 10 years time when it's what you need given the investments you make is less clear.

Operator

We'll go next to Catherine O'Brien with Goldman Sachs.

Catherine O'Brien

Team. Thanks for the time. Maybe 1 more on the asset sales. Would it be fair to say that the elevated sales in the last 2 years were really driven more by portfolio management versus I've heard this for a few people trying to cash in on gain on sale margin driven by some view of the cycle. And I guess any thoughts on how we should think about the level of asset sales going forward? On a high level over the next couple of years, is there maybe a good rule of thumb in terms of percentage of the fleet tied to average age or something? Or it's really just entirely situational based on the information you have each year.

Aengus Kelly

Well, Catherine, it's never entirely situational. It's very thoughtful, strategic over the last 15 years. And I think you may have seen what we call our sun shy charts which show how we shape the portfolio over the last 15 years and the assets we sold and the consistency with the type of assets we've sold. So gain on sale is never the driver. I mean gain on sale will be, as I say, fool's gold. If I'm selling assets to maximize Gamesa, and I send my best asked us to do it.

The average -- the portfolio that we have on average is weakening all the time. It's getting worse. And then I'm compounding that error by going ahead of buying shares in us. So that is very poor use of shareholder money, very poor stewardship of the platform. Our view has always been very consistent. This is where the portfolio is driving towards, and these are the assets we're selling and it's not being sold for getting the sale because that will take care of itself.

If you manage the asset well, you've managed the maintenance condition of the assets throughout its life, you'll get the best price in the market whenever you go to sell it. Now sales have been elevated over the last couple of years, of course, because there has been a reduction in the China exposure, and they have been on a value basis -- absolute value base is bigger assets because they be newer assets where assets we've sold outside of China have tended to be lower value. Pete, anything you want to add?

Peter Juhas

I guess I would just add, in terms of the margins, as I mentioned last quarter, I mean, they do move around every quarter just depending on the assets that happened to be sold in a particular quarter. This quarter, we saw it quite high at 45%. Last quarter, it was 20%. The previous quarter, it was 24%. So that is going to bounce around. I think it's hard to discern a trend based on any single quarter -- but this quarter, it was really driven mainly by very strong gains on sale and engines and mid-life and older assets.

But across the board, we saw strong gains on sale for everything that we sold.

Catherine O'Brien

That's great. Really helpful reminder of the long-term focus here on asset sales. Maybe just 1 more if you got. When fuel first began, it's wrong, you shared you thought airlines would wait before making any major fleet plan changes. -- which is as far as I can tell from my admittedly a centric point of view has proven right. There does seem to be a shift to management team thinking by higher for longer prices -- have you observed any pivots on fleet planning maybe in terms of lower extension rate at AerCap or airlines I think we've already touched a little bit on the retirement topic, but conversely, like trying to find a way to take more fuel-efficient new aircraft understandably the market's tight just will be interesting to hear some of the puts and takes, like if you're starting to see movement on longer-term decisions.

Aengus Kelly

Look, well, certainly, as it relates to the bulk of our basis. So if we look at the new tech assets -- there's certainly -- no 1 is changing their fleet plans and what they're thinking of doing in '28, '29, et cetera. Those discussions are still very robust. -- the freight business is very robust. The engine business is very robust. But look, if we do continue to see elevated fuel prices here, I would expect to see reduced flying of the less fuel-efficient assets, particularly if we're going to have to fly on longer routes.

So that, I think you would see now that doesn't mean an airline can hand back any asset to you. But from our perspective, that's a very small portion of our portfolio, the all leased out pretty much to the end of their lives every way. So I would be from the impact on AerCap I don't think it will have a huge effect, really, to be honest, I referenced earlier.

But as we go through the next 12 months, if we do stay at these high fuel prices, I think we'll see reduced flying of that asset type but I want to be very careful to say that isn't really a huge impact for us because they're a lot very long dollar value assets that generally are on lease or we consumed to our engine business, our parts business, if we have to.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Terry Ma with Barclays.

Terry Ma

Maybe just a follow-up on the leverage question. We all know what the target leverage level is. But if the business continues to outperform your expectations -- is there a practical floor you don't want to operate below with respect to the leverage? And if those larger capital deployment opportunities remain limited, how should we think about just the buyback?

Peter Juhas

Well, you can see, Terry, maybe a Look, we have been doing a lot of buybacks. I don't -- our expectation is that we wouldn't fall lower below our current leverage ratio. But it's all looking at the various opportunities that are out there. And so we've been buying back stock, but we have also been buying assets. And as you saw from Gus' presentation, those are significant numbers that we added to the order book those will come through. They're not immediate, but they do come through over time, and we'll look to continue to do those. But maybe, Gus, I'll turn it over to you for any comments.

Aengus Kelly

No, I think, look, we've always been very active in the market when there is opportunity. And the good news is that the company has never had a stronger balance sheet in its history. And as I said, we have a vast amount of capital available to us today and whether we deployed out in in buybacks, assets or asset purchases, et cetera, and we'll always do what we believe is in the best long-term interest of the shareholders. .

Terry Ma

Got it. That's helpful. And Pete, maybe just update us on the net spread outlook. I think you have a large slug of debt to end of this month when you kind of factor in the assets coming back on to lease and just everything else, like what's the outlook over the next few quarters?

Peter Juhas

Sure. So the net spread this quarter for the third quarter was 8.1% and it's really moved stayed between 8% and 8.1% over the last several quarters. I'd expect it to stay about that level for the next couple of quarters. Over time, we should see some a modest increase in that as we get the Spirit aircraft continue to come back on lease, you get some of the benefits of the Covadera leases rolling off, as we've talked about before. .

But as you mentioned, we also have higher interest expense, which is built into that number that I gave you. So you've got those 2 competing factors. I think the net effect of that will be some gradual upward movement in the net spread, but over the next couple of quarters, I expect it to remain pretty much where it has been.

Operator

We'll go next to Jason Holcomb with Morgan Stanley.

Unknown Analyst

Guys, so Gos, last quarter, you described the A321neo as the prime aircraft in the narrow-body market. And you mentioned MAX10 certification would be important for improving the competitive position of the MAX 8. So now that the MAX 10 has been certified, how do you think about the competitive dynamics between Airbus and Boeing -- and could this materially improve leasing demand and residual values across the broader MAX family? Or is Airbus' advantage a little bit more structural?

Aengus Kelly

I mean the big challenge now for the MAX is getting them into service. So certification is great, and we're thrilled ahead of the team at Boeing got that over the line, along with the as the biggest owner of aircraft in the world. We really want to see a strong bowing. We want to see being competitive with Airbus, and this is a key to us. .

The next step, though, to actually realize that competitiveness is to start delivering the aircraft in some scale. So that is the challenge, of course. And obviously, we're aware of what Boeing announced yesterday on their call regarding the ramp-up. That is the key. Can the MAX 10 get into service. in large scale in the next 4 or 5 years. That's the key to be competitive with the 321 million.

Unknown Analyst

And maybe just a quick follow-up for Pete. So I think, Pete, coming into 2026, I think the outlook had expected leasing expenses and SG&A to be around like $1.2 billion. I think through 3 quarters, where those expenses are now around like $770 million. Is there anything abnormal we should be thinking about in 4Q? And if not, can you provide some context as to what drove the lower-than-expected expenses throughout the year?

Peter Juhas

Sure. So on the leasing expenses side, and that's been the main driver of it. that's really because we've seen some maintenance events being pushed out into 2027. So that's really what will drive leasing expenses. So this quarter, it was about $110 million. But the last couple of quarters, it's been low. And that $110 million is relatively low compared to the maintenance revenue that we had. Normally, those move somewhat in tandem, right?

So I'd say that's been the main driver in pushing those expenses out. And that's 1 of the reasons why on the maintenance side, I mentioned that I thought we would get back to the net contribution of $50 million a quarter next year.

Operator

We'll go next to Chris total poles with SIG.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos

So 1 question in a higher for fuel scenario, could you give a little bit more context. You mentioned around the SLB opportunities here. and you spoke to earlier around perhaps lower-cost carriers. I think with what you said around a 3- to 5-hour ship perhaps being under a little bit more pressure, a little bit more context there. But then also if we could revisit the idea of this barbell approach you have to the portfolio, and how that looks within a higher free fuel scenario as it relates to the older and current technology.

Aengus Kelly

Sure, sure. Well, I should have said, of course, there's nothing wrong with low cost. It's low fare is a challenge. If your costs are low enough, you could have a low fares. The challenge is many airlines unfortunately don't have at the low cost, but they have the low fare. And that problem becomes accetuated you fly longer distances because fuel just makes up a greater component of the cost base and you're not getting the incremental revenue to justify the additional flight time. .

As it relates to the barbell approach and those of you who have seen it, and I'm sure it's available on our website in the presentation over 15 years, how we've looked at the portfolio of aircraft as a because of what we see so much information we get every day about engine flight cycles to our spare engine business, the biggest in the world, how long engine to spend in the shop, what they're being used for, what airplanes would be used for what routes they're being used on.

All that information is used that has been used consistently to say, look, we wanted to make sure in 2011 of that. When we buy new assets, they want to buy new technology or we want to buy old variants of existing technology. I mean, we're consistent with that and sell any newer older tech assets, so end of run assets, you've had to avoid at all costs. if you were by A320 737s, A330s in 2016, where you're really ever going to get 24 years of life out of them, unlikely, and that will prove to be the case.

But they looked attractive way back in 2016 when there wasn't much available. And there never is that much available. One thing to think about if you're in the right asset to navi, you never really get any sustained period of oversupply quarter here, a quarter there, but that's what I said many times, be you've got to be in the right assets and understand the demand for assets evolves and so from our perspective, that barbell is we want to make sure we're only older assets, which we do, as I said, a minority of our small minority of our portfolio was in 7 and 20.

But the average age of those assets is towards the very end of their useful life. We have them out on lease to the -- pretty much, I'd say, in most cases, to the end of that useful life and where carrying values are very low, and we can monetize those assets through our engine business and to our parts business. So as I look at our own portfolio, I don't see that as a threat because of the very long-term planning and understanding of demand from the customer base and how we've executed on that over a very long period of time.

Operator

We'll go next to Ann Sikanavic with Truist Securities. .

Arren Cyganovich

I guess, I wanted to talk a little bit about the opportunity from potential sale leasebacks that you referenced with rising or elevated oil prices given your kind of long history and your unique kind of global view of airline health how long would it take to get to that point where you think that opportunity would be start to really present itself to you.

Aengus Kelly

I mean it is something, of course, that we're always looking at how we can work with our customers and if there are things we can do to help them to solidify their balance sheet and their liquidity -- those discussions are ongoing all the time. Of course, there's -- I suspect that in the new year, there may be a little there's more intensity around them. But we will, of course, make sure that we're very focused on all of our customer base, those that need help and how we can do it.

But I would say as we look through the next few quarters, I'm sure -- I know we'll be in discussions as to whether or not they meet the return conditions and thresholds for our shareholders is another matter. But if they do, of course, we'll be very aggressive.

Arren Cyganovich

Okay. And then a quick one. Could you just remind me what the interest rate benchmark that your lease rates are kind of attached to in your contracts for your forward leases?

Aengus Kelly

For the most part, it's the 7-year sulfur for the most part. -- sometimes it will be a treasury rate, but for the most part of 7-year-olthat matches the average duration of our lease book and the average duration of our debt. And that's the key, of course, as to how AerCap has historically managed its business on the liability side is to run a hedged book. .

Operator

We'll take our next question from Doug Rate with Deutsche Bank.

Douglas Runte

Yes. Gus, you highlighted the strength of the wide-body market and a great anecdote about the 380. It looks like that tightness is going to continue into the next decade. And yet, if you look at lessor's share of the wide-body passenger backlog, it's at a record low, sub 3%, 80% of it is 1 operator. for 1 aircraft type.

I'm wondering what's going on there. Your own order was quite small for the top off for the 787-9 -- is it just sale leasebacks or the more appropriate way of adding wide-bodies? Or should we see someone make a bigger dive into spec orders for wide-body passengers?

Aengus Kelly

Well, Doug, look, I'd be honest, I wish I bought a lot more widebodies a couple of years ago to be fair to Christian Chair, who ran Airbus, 4 years still to be you should buy more. We didn't. So may acute. But what I would say on the widebodies is, of course, we would do more. We were -- we did the recent top-up, as you noted on the we could have done more. There was more to be done, but there was a point because of escalation and the conditions where it didn't work for us.

There were certain things we were able to bring to Boeing to get a portion of the deal to economics that we -- that work for us and our shareholders. But if it doesn't, I can buy back all the wide bodies in the world boon at the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker alpha ecoromia. And so there's no shortage of our ability to buy widebodies.

Douglas Runte

Great. And then a quick follow-up. You touched on escalators. We've seen lessors in general creeping further towards the horizon on when they're taking Skyline deliveries, I guess, in a world where escalator caps are not as easily available as they might have been 5 or 6 years ago. How far out is too far to place a speculative order for a narrow-body or wide-body airplane?

Aengus Kelly

Well, Doug, as you can see from the -- my answer to the last question, there was a limit where I was willing to go based on what was available on escalation caps. So -- I mean it all depends on what type of escalation protection you're getting, if you don't really have a true cap then, I think going out into the 2030s, 2033, 2034, 2035, is it would be a challenge, I think.

But the recent orders we've put on, for example, I think we had $130 million this year we did 50-odd last year of aircraft. And I'm pretty sure that 90% of those aircraft will deliver before I saw a competitor announce a deal last week for a similar number. I think they'll start delivering when our finish. And that's a function of the capability of AerCap. As I referenced in my prepared comments, we were able to reach things others just simply can't through the combination.

Of our presence with the airlines are speed and widely then our ability to help OEM production to our engine business.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Angus Kelly for any additional or closing remarks.

Aengus Kelly

Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining the call. This was another record quarter for AerCap. We raised guidance, and it reflects really the power of the platform. This business is just not about just by leasing and selling aircraft. It's about actively managing every aspect of the assets throughout its life cycle. And then when you generate capital, you have to allocate it correctly.

There's no point being able to generate it if you can't allocate it. and that's always at the forefront of our mind. And the combination of those factors is what drives the earnings power and the durability of our earnings for a very long period of time. So thank you all very much for joining us, and we'll talk to you in 3 months' time.

Peter Juhas

Thank you, operator.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.