Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của PINE: Tăng trưởng AFFO và nâng dự báo
Quý 3 năm 2026, doanh thu PINE đạt 20,5 triệu USD. FFO và AFFO trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng cùng đạt 0,55 USD, tăng khoảng 20% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Công ty nâng dự báo FFO cả năm lên 2,19-2,21 USD và AFFO lên 2,20-2,22 USD, phản ánh quy mô đầu tư dự kiến 310-350 triệu USD.
Các thương vụ thâu tóm hoàn tất và đang trong hợp đồng vượt 300 triệu USD. Tỷ lệ nợ ròng trên EBITDA điều chỉnh dự phóng ở mức 6,5 lần, dự kiến tăng lên khoảng 7,3 lần do thương vụ công nghiệp trị giá 117,3 triệu USD sắp tới, trước khi giảm thông qua thoái vốn và tăng trưởng NOI.
Điểm chính
- Doanh thu quý 3 năm 2026 đạt 20,5 triệu USD. FFO và AFFO đều đạt 0,55 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng, tăng khoảng 20% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, không có thu nhập một lần hoặc không thường xuyên trong quý.
- PINE đã nâng dự báo FFO cả năm 2026 lên 2,19-2,21 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng và dự báo AFFO lên 2,20-2,22 USD, phản ánh giả định quy mô đầu tư đạt 310 triệu-350 triệu USD.
- Các khoản đầu tư đã hoàn tất và đang trong hợp đồng vượt quá 300 triệu USD tính từ đầu năm đến nay, vượt tổng số 277 triệu USD của cả năm 2025. Các thương vụ thâu tóm bất động sản trong quý 3 đạt tổng cộng 39,2 triệu USD với tỷ lệ vốn hóa tiền mặt ban đầu bình quân trọng số là 8,5%.
- Thương vụ thâu tóm danh mục bất động sản công nghiệp trị giá 117,3 triệu USD đang chờ xử lý bao gồm 13 bất động sản với diện tích khoảng 1,9 triệu foot vuông. Tỷ lệ lấp đầy đạt 100%, thời hạn thuê còn lại bình quân trọng số là 10,2 năm và không có hợp đồng thuê nào hết hạn trước cuối năm 2031.
- Tỷ lệ nợ ròng trên EBITDA điều chỉnh dự phóng vào cuối quý là 6,5 lần. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết thương vụ thâu tóm bất động sản công nghiệp có thể ban đầu làm tăng đòn bẩy lên khoảng 7,3 lần trước khi các kế hoạch thoái vốn và tăng trưởng NOI giúp giảm tỷ lệ này.
- Các cam kết tài trợ vốn mới bao gồm khoản vay hạn mức 4 năm trị giá 100 triệu USD và việc mở rộng hạn mức tín dụng quay vòng thêm 75 triệu USD, bổ sung 175 triệu USD thanh khoản tiềm năng.
Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi
| Chỉ số | Quý 3 năm 2026 | Thay đổi / Ngữ cảnh |
|---|---|---|
| Tổng doanh thu | 20,5 triệu USD | Bao gồm 12,8 triệu USD thu nhập từ cho thuê và 7,6 triệu USD thu nhập lãi từ khoản vay thương mại |
| FFO trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng | 0,55 USD | Tăng khoảng 20% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái |
| AFFO trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng | 0,55 USD | Tăng 19,6% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái |
| Thâu tóm bất động sản quý 3 | 39,2 triệu USD | Tỷ lệ vốn hóa tiền mặt ban đầu bình quân trọng số 8,5% |
| Nợ ròng / EBITDA điều chỉnh dự phóng | 6,5 lần | Không đổi so với quý 2; giảm từ 7,7 lần so với một năm trước đó |
| Dư nợ | 398,5 triệu USD | Lãi suất bình quân trọng số 4,48%; không có khoản nợ nào đến hạn cho đến năm 2029 |
| Tỷ lệ lấp đầy danh mục | 99,6% | 130 bất động sản trên khắp 31 bang |
| Thời hạn thuê bình quân trọng số | 8,7 năm | Danh mục đạt tổng cộng 4,8 triệu foot vuông |
Trong 9 tháng kết thúc vào ngày 30 tháng 9 năm 2026, doanh thu đạt 58,9 triệu USD, bao gồm 38,1 triệu USD thu nhập từ cho thuê và 20,7 triệu USD thu nhập lãi từ khoản vay thương mại. FFO đạt 1,65 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng và AFFO đạt 1,66 USD, cả hai đều tăng khoảng 23% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.
Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động
PINE đã hoàn tất 85,8 triệu USD các thương vụ thâu tóm bất động sản tính từ đầu năm đến nay với tỷ lệ vốn hóa ban đầu bình quân trọng số là 8,0%. Các thương vụ mua trong quý 3 bao gồm các bất động sản cho Best Buy, Lowe’s và Dick’s Sporting Goods thuê. Sau khi kết thúc quý, công ty đã thâu tóm một bất động sản Burlington ở Chandler, Arizona với giá 7,9 triệu USD.
Thương vụ thâu tóm danh mục bất động sản công nghiệp đang chờ xử lý được định giá 117,3 triệu USD, tương đương khoảng 63 USD trên mỗi foot vuông. Các bất động sản trải dài trên 11 bang và được cho 9 người thuê theo hợp đồng ròng tuyệt đối (absolute triple-net) với mức tăng giá thuê hàng năm. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết khách thuê đã hoạt động tại các địa điểm này trung bình 40 năm và mức giá thuê hiện tại đang thấp hơn giá thị trường. Thương vụ dự kiến sẽ hoàn tất vào giữa quý 4 năm 2026, tùy thuộc vào các điều kiện thông thường.
Ban lãnh đạo mô tả mảng công nghiệp là một cơ hội đơn lẻ thay vì là một trọng tâm chiến lược mới, đồng thời tiếp tục cởi mở với các lĩnh vực khác mang lại lợi suất điều chỉnh theo rủi ro hấp dẫn.
Vào cuối quý, 68% tiền thuê cơ sở quy năm đến từ các khách thuê được xếp hạng tín nhiệm và 56% từ các khách thuê có xếp hạng đầu tư. Tiền thuê cơ sở tính theo phương pháp đường thẳng đạt tổng cộng 53,9 triệu USD.
Danh mục khoản vay thương mại bao gồm 11 khoản vay với tổng mệnh giá dư nợ 160,1 triệu USD và mức lãi suất bình quân trọng số 14,4%, bao gồm cả lãi nhập gốc (PIK). Hai khoản vay với tổng trị giá 17,9 triệu USD, có lợi suất bình quân trọng số 10,2%, đã được hoàn trả trước hạn trong quý. Danh mục khoản vay vẫn duy trì gần mục tiêu của ban lãnh đạo là khoảng 20% tổng giá trị tài sản chưa khấu hao.
Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo
| Dự báo năm 2026 | Khoảng mới | Khoảng trước đó |
|---|---|---|
| FFO trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng | 2,19-2,21 USD | 2,10-2,13 USD |
| AFFO trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng | 2,20-2,22 USD | 2,12-2,15 USD |
| Quy mô đầu tư | 310 triệu-350 triệu USD | — |
Ở mức trung bình, ban lãnh đạo cho biết triển vọng FFO đã điều chỉnh đại diện cho mức tăng trưởng khoảng 17% trên mỗi cổ phiếu so với năm 2025. Dự báo này kết hợp thời điểm dự kiến của các hoạt động đầu tư, thoái vốn và huy động vốn, khoản trả nợ sớm 17,9 triệu USD trong quý 3, và khoản vay 7,4 triệu USD với lợi suất 10,25% đến hạn trong quý 4.
Ban lãnh đạo chỉ ra rằng quy mô đầu tư nhiều khả năng sẽ thấp hơn trong năm 2027 sau khi hoạt động năm 2026 đạt mức xấp xỉ vốn hóa thị trường của công ty. Tuy nhiên, công ty có thể tìm kiếm vốn bên ngoài hoặc đối tác nếu xuất hiện các cơ hội phù hợp.
Rủi ro và Yếu tố cần theo dõi
- Việc tài trợ vốn cho thương vụ thâu tóm mảng công nghiệp dự kiến sẽ làm tăng tỷ lệ đòn bẩy từ mức giữa 6x lên khoảng 7,3 lần ban đầu. Ban lãnh đạo có kế hoạch giảm đòn bẩy thông qua thoái vốn, tái cơ cấu danh mục và tăng giá thuê theo hợp đồng.
- Hợp đồng hoán đổi SOFR trị giá 100 triệu USD ở mức 2,05% sẽ hết hạn vào tháng 1 năm 2027 và sẽ được thay thế bằng hợp đồng hoán đổi cố định SOFR ở mức 3,54%, làm tăng lãi suất khoảng 150 điểm cơ bản. Một hợp đồng hoán đổi riêng biệt trị giá 50 triệu USD cũng sẽ hết hạn vào tháng 1 và chưa có phương án thay thế kỳ hạn nào.
- Việc hoàn trả khoản vay và giảm lãi suất sẽ gây áp lực lên thu nhập lãi. Ban lãnh đạo ước tính rằng AFFO quý 3 đạt 0,55 USD sẽ vào khoảng 0,53 USD sau khi điều chỉnh cho hoạt động cho vay, với các thương vụ thâu tóm dự kiến sẽ bù đắp cho sự sụt giảm này.
- Danh mục khoản vay thương mại có 75 triệu USD cam kết chưa giải ngân trải dài trong khoảng hai năm. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng các khoản vay đến hạn theo lịch trình sẽ tài trợ ít nhất một phần cho các đợt giải ngân đó.
- Thời điểm thâu tóm, thoái vốn và hoàn trả khoản vay có thể khiến AFFO và đòn bẩy hàng quý biến động.
Điểm nhấn thảo luận Q&A với chuyên gia phân tích
Ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ đang hướng tới tỷ lệ vốn hóa thâu tóm khoảng 8%, cộng trừ dao động, và coi môi trường lãi suất cao hơn là tạo ra cơ hội để thâu tóm tài sản từ những người bán có động lực. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết định giá của danh mục bất động sản công nghiệp đang chờ xử lý phản ánh môi trường lãi suất hiện tại.
Khoản vay hạn mức 4 năm mới trị giá 100 triệu USD dự kiến sẽ được cố định ở mức khoảng 4,75% khi đóng thương vụ thông qua một hợp đồng hoán đổi kỳ hạn hiện có. Số tiền thu được sẽ dùng để trả nợ vay tín dụng quay vòng, trong khi hạn mức tín dụng quay vòng sẽ được mở rộng thêm 75 triệu USD.
Thoái vốn dự kiến sẽ là công cụ chính để giảm tỷ lệ đòn bẩy. Ban lãnh đạo cũng có thể bán một số tài sản chọn lọc từ danh mục công nghiệp và tái cơ cấu các bất động sản có lợi suất thấp hơn sang các cơ hội có lợi suất cao hơn.
Ban lãnh đạo vẫn thấy an tâm với mức độ rủi ro đối với các khoản vay đất ở, lưu ý rằng các dự án cơ sở chủ yếu là các khu dân cư nhà ở thứ hai, thứ ba và thứ tư phục vụ người mua có nguồn vốn sẵn có dồi dào.
Toàn văn Biên bản cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh
Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh
Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo
Unknown Speaker
Thank you. I'm going to go ahead and start the video.
Operator
Be advised, today's conference is being recorded. I would like to turn the conference over to your speaker today. Jenna McKinney, please go ahead.
Unknown Speaker
Thank you. Joining me and participating on the call this morning are John Albright, President and Chief Executive Officer, Philip Mays, Chief Financial Officer, and other members of the executive team who will be available to answer questions during the call. As a reminder, many of our comments today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. The company's actual future results may differ significantly from the matters discussed in these forward-looking statements, and we undertake no duty to update these statements. Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are disclosed time in greater detail in the company's Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other SEC filings. You can find our SEC reports, earnings release, and most recent investor presentation, which contain reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures we use, on our website at www.alpinereit.com. With that, I will turn the call over to John.
John Albright
Thank you, Jenna, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased to report another strong quarter. AFFO per diluted share grew 19.6% over the third quarter of last year, and we invested approximately $41 million at a weighted average initial yield of 8.5%. Our investment activity has accelerated meaningfully this year, including our pending $117.3 million industrial portfolio acquisition, which I'll discuss in a moment. Our closed and under contract investments year to date now exceed $300 million, a company record that surpasses our full year 2025 total of $277 million.
As a result of this investment volume, we are raising our full-year 2026 AFFO guidance, which Phil will walk through shortly. Starting with acquisitions, during the quarter we closed $39.2 million of property acquisitions at a weighted average initial cash cap rate of 8.5%. Key tenants included a Best Buy in McAllen, Texas, a Lowe's in Fairfax, Virginia, and a Dick's Sporting Goods in Asheville, North Carolina, which are all investment grade rated and among our top five tenants by ABR.
To date, we've closed on $85.8 million of property acquisitions at a weighted average initial cap rate of 8%. We continue to target well-located properties. We can buy at low basis at attractive initial yield, and we look to selectively recycle lower-yielding properties into new higher yielding opportunities. Subsequent to quarter end, we acquired a Burlington in Chandler, Arizona for $7.9 million. And earlier this month, announced an agreement to acquire a 13-property industrial portfolio for $117.3 million, or approximately $63 per square foot.
The industrial portfolio totals about 1.9 million square feet across 11 states. It is 100% leased to nine tenants on an absolute triple net basis with annual rent escalations. A weighted average remaining lease term of 10.2 years and no expiration before late 2031. While industrial is not a strategic focus, this portfolio stood out for a few reasons. First, it offers an attractive initial yield. Second, the tenant base is diversified and tenants have operated at their sites for an average of 40 years and invested significant capital in them. Third, we believe in-place rents are below market and benefit from annual escalations. We expect to close in the middle of the fourth quarter, subject to customary closing conditions. The new financing Phil will discuss gives us ample capacity to fund it.
At quarter end, our property portfolio consists of 130 properties, totaling 4.8 million square feet across 31 states, with 99.6% occupancy, and a weighted average lease term of 8.7 years. The original straight line base rent was $53.9 million. Approximately 68% of ABR comes from credit-rated tenants and 56% from investment-grade rated tenants. And our commercial loan portfolio received earlier payment in full on two loans totaling $17.9 million and a weighted average yield of 10.2%.
At quarter end, the portfolio consisted of 11 loans with outstanding face amount of $160.1 million and a weighted average coupon, including PIC interest, of 14.4%. The loan book is near our target of approximately 20% of total undepreciated asset value. It complements our property portfolio and increases the overall yield on our investments. As a reminder, the timing of the fundings or repayments can cause the relative size of the loan portfolio to vary from quarter to quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Phil.
Philip Mays
Thanks, John. Starting with our results. Third quarter total revenue was $20.5 million, including lease income of $12.8 million and interest income from commercial loan investments of $7.6 million. FFO and AFFO were both $0.55 per diluted share, up approximately 20% from the third quarter of last year. As a reminder, second quarter results included approximately $0.02 per diluted share of non-recurring termination fee income. This quarter did not include any one-time or non-recurring income. For the nine months ended September 30th, total revenue was $58.9 million, including lease income of $38.1 million, and interest income from commercial loan investments of $20.7 million. FFO and AFFO were $1.65 and $1.66 per diluted share, both up approximately 23% from the same period last year.
Turning to the balance sheet, during the quarter, we raised $8.2 million of net proceeds through our common and preferred ATM programs. Year to date, we have now raised approximately $70 million of net proceeds across both programs. We ended the quarter with net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA of 6.5 times. This is consistent with last quarter. It is more than a full-turn lower than the 7.7 times we reported a year ago. As of quarter end, we had $398.5 million of debt outstanding at a weighted average interest rate of 4.48% and no debt maturing until 2029.
As previously disclosed, we have $100 million of SOFR swaps at 2.05% that mature in January 2027 and will be replaced with swaps fixing SOFR at 3.54%. Notably, subsequent to quarter end, we received bank commitments for a new $100 million four-year term loan and a $75 million increase to our revolving credit facility. We expect the financing to close in late October and will use the term loan proceeds to reduce borrowings outstanding on a revolving credit facility. In total, this financing adds $175 million of potential liquidity.
Now turning to guidance. As John said, our investment volume has led us to raise guidance. For full year 2026, we are raising our FFO outlook to $2.19 to $2.21 per diluted share, up from $2.10 to $2.13. We are raising our AFFO outlook to $2.20 to $2.22 per diluted share, up from $2.12 to $2.15. At the midpoint, this represents approximately 17% FFO per share growth over 2025. New guidance ranges reflect our increased investment volume assumption of $310 million to $350 million. They reflect the expected timing of investments, dispositions, and financing activity, as well as this quarter's $17.9 million of early loan repayments John discussed, and a $7.4 million loan with a 10.25% yield maturing in the fourth quarter. Finally, based on equity issued this quarter, our quarterly base management fee run rate is now approximately $1.5 million. Operator, please open the call to questions.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jay Kornreich with Cantor Fitzgerald.
Phần hỏi đáp
Jay Kornreich
Okay. I was wondering if you could just give any further details on the industrial portfolio you announced to acquire, if there's anything further along what the yield was on it, and more specifically just in terms of how you anticipate financing it, and if there's any maybe guidelines around what you think pro forma leverage might be.
John Albright
Hey, Jay, it's John. Thanks for the question. I'll let Phil talk about the financing aspects of it. Because it's under contract, we haven't closed yet. We'll probably save more details until after it closes. But obviously, we've given a fair amount of detail on our investor deck on it without having it been closed. But we love the portfolio because it is higher yielding. It has a nice WALT to over 10 years. It has annual escalations. It's dispersed in 13 properties, nine tenants, and incredibly low rental rate per square foot. So it fits all the boxes of things that we like to buy where there's good yield and limited downside and nice upside. But, Phil, you want to talk about the financing side?
Philip Mays
Sure. Yeah, hey Jay. So next week we should close on our new financing that's disclosed in the earnings release. New term loan, a four-year term loan for $100 million for which the proceeds will be used to pay down the line. And then we're actually growing the line and hitting the accordion there to increase the line $75 million. So we'll initially take it down on the line on debt to EBITDA, but if you just want to look at that solely by itself, we go from mid-6s to low-7s. 7.3-ish, you know, and then we'll look at, you know, we still have some room in our dispo guidance and all to get back down later.
Jay Kornreich
Okay, I appreciate that. That's helpful. And then maybe just more broadly, the industrial portfolio acquisition, it brings some incremental diversity to the otherwise largely retail portfolio. So just wondering how you're thinking about what the ideal makeup of your portfolio is going forward. Are you targeting more industrial or other asset classes, or was this transaction really just more of a one-off?
John Albright
For right now, it's basically a one-off, but we had mentioned in our previous earnings calls that we were open to other sectors. And so, you know, finding that, you know, great risk-adjusted yield, you know, in sectors. And as you know, we already have an industrial property in our portfolio before this acquisition. I don't see anything else in the window, kind of like what we're looking at, but we're open to it.
Operator
Okay, I'll hold it there. Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Matthew Erdner with Jones. Your line is open.
Matthew Erdner
I'd like to touch on the loan portfolio a little bit and, you know, kind of the plans with that capital as it does start to run off. Do you look to keep that portfolio at or near 20%, or should we expect to see some of that capital kind of redeployed into properties? And then on top of that, um, you know, I guess towards the end of the quarter, shares started trading down, which, you know, could present attractive repurchase opportunities. So how do you guys kind of balance the three of those?
John Albright
Yes, thanks. So on the loan book, you know, it's not a hard set as far as an amount that we'll have out there. So there could be a situation where the loan book, you know, pays down, pays off, and we don't replace it to the amount it is now. But I will say in this environment, you know, we are seeing interesting opportunities to replace the loans that we have. So, you know, nothing, you know, right now, but certainly this is a good environment where to get, you know, really terrific sponsors, terrific assets, great locations, great basis. So I would expect that there'll be more opportunities, but it could be a situation where it does pay down in any way. That's kind of where we are with a loan book.
Matthew Erdner
Got it. Appreciate that. And then looking at dispositions, are there any credits that you guys may look to move on to or on from and call it '27, you know, as we continue to go forward?
John Albright
Yeah, I mean, we're constantly, as you know, pruning the portfolio. And of course, you know, we have uh, some Walgreens left, but their credit gets better. And we're just kind of cash flowing those out until, you know, find that 1031 uh buyer. Um, and, you know, we have an at-home as you know, but the at-home is in Charlotte in a terrific location. We had another user that wanted to buy it and at-home didn't want to leave. So, you know, the locations that we have are really strong. We have one Sportsman's Warehouse where we have someone that wants to buy that. The Party City in Long Island, we're far along on a lease to replace that. So we're always pruning, but nothing that.
Operator
Got it. Thank you, guys. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Richard Milligan with Raymond James. Your line is open.
Richard Milligan
John, maybe you could just give some comments on what you're seeing in terms of maybe a shift in cap rates or if you're seeing the market move at all just given the higher interest rate environment.
John Albright
Sure. I mean, clearly, you know, we're saving our capital for, you know, really good opportunities where we are getting that higher yield potential. So, you know, we're going to be targeting sort of that eight cap plus or minus. And, you know, I would say that people are out in the market right now selling something, that means they want to clear the deck. So you probably have in this environment people that are going to sell, going to transact, no matter what versus a market where they're seeing better pricing and they're taking something out to market. So this is the time that gets us excited. So hopefully we'll have some good hunting here.
Richard Milligan
Thanks for that. And Phil, um, just given the new debt or the new financings and then the swap burn-offs, is there any way to quantify what the potential impact is next year as we think about the higher rates and the swap burn-offs?
Philip Mays
Yes, there's two swaps, RJ, that expire both in January. One is for $100 million. I talked about it in my prepared remarks at around 200 basis points. So it's going to roll. We have a forward swap in place that will replace it. That is below market but higher than the 200 that that swap was at. So that $100 million will roll up about 150 basis points. And then the only other swap we have burning off is $50 million. And it also matures in January. We do not have a forward to replace it, but it's closer to market. It's maybe 50 bips below market. So that one won't, it's smaller, it's $50 million, and it's closer to market, so that one will have a little sting, but not as much. Those are the two biggest moving parts on our rates for next year.
Richard Milligan
Okay, great. Thanks, guys.
Operator
Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.
Michael Goldsmith
Um, you know, just obviously big industrial portfolio. And yet the implied fourth quarter guidance is sort of similar to the third quarter AFFO per share. So can you kind of bridge, you know, the moving pieces from the third quarter to the fourth quarter? And then, you know, is that like a $0.55, like the right runway to think about just kind of going forward, I guess building off of that last question.
Philip Mays
Yes. Hey, Michael. It's Phil. So in the quarter, as we noted, John noted, we had a couple of loans that paid off. And then in the fourth quarter, if you look at our loan schedule, there's one for $7 million, $8 million, it's also scheduled to pay off. In addition to that, we do have the rate that adjusts down on the large residential loan. So the $0.55 in the third quarter, if you kind of adjust for all that, just the loan activity, it probably falls back to call it $0.53 or so. And then with the acquisitions we announced in particular the industrial portfolio, that will kind of replace it. So it looks like in the middle of our guidance, the run rate's kind of consistent with the third quarter, but there's really moving parts there. A little less loan and then the acquisition, industrial acquisition, bringing it back to And look, it could be higher or lower. It'll just depend on timing of when the acquisitions close versus any dispositions.
Michael Goldsmith
Got it. Thanks for that. And then leverage ticking up here, you know, over the last year you worked to take it down. I guess just what's the plan to work the leverage down from here and just how are you thinking about that in this current environment?
John Albright
Yes, I'll take the first part of it and Phil can follow on. Look, we have some dispo plans and even the industrial portfolio, there might be some properties we want to spin out on that one. So it's really, I would say, asset sales, obviously, the capital markets are there. There may be some help there, but, you know, we have a fair amount of properties with lower cap rate sort of attributes. So that's sort of the plan.
Philip Mays
Yes, as John said, dispos will be the biggest mover there, but also just we do have some annual bumps in the portfolio where NOI will grow. And recycling, not just straight dispos, could also help earnings grow in addition to that. In addition to disposition. So, we've got a phase to incrementally move leverage down.
Unknown Speaker
Got it. Thanks so much. Good luck in the fourth quarter.
Philip Mays
Thank you.
Operator
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Gaurav Mehta with Alliance Global Partners. Your line is open.
Gaurav Mehta
I wanted to ask you on the financing for industrial portfolio. I don't know if I missed it, but can you provide the cost of financing of the term loan? How much was the rate on the term loan?
Philip Mays
The new term loan has not closed yet. There's a swap in it. The rate will be a little higher than the other two term loans, but it'll generally be fairly consistent with it. And then our variable rate debt now is, call it 5%, a little higher depending on where SOFR sits.
Gaurav Mehta
Okay. The commercial loan portfolio, what's the timing of $75 million unfunded commitments in the portfolio?
Philip Mays
It's spread out over a couple of years. And then we also, that's just the unfunded piece. Keep in mind that over those two years, there will also be some loans maturing. So, it's $75 million it'll be something less net of the loans maturing and you can see the schedule you can see the maturity dates on. There we have $8 million paying down in the fourth quarter alone. So, you know, repayments will help, you know, fund some of the draws actually going out so that, you know, we never have to really come out of pocket, the $75 million at any moment in time. Those draws are spread out over two years and can be at least partially handled with just loans maturing.
Gaurav Mehta
All right. Thank you. That's all I have.
Operator
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Alec Feygin with Baird. Your line is open.
Alec Feygin
On the swaps, are you assuming for the $50 million and the $100 million, are you assuming to swap that in the fourth quarter or you know we'll drag into the first quarter.
Philip Mays
For the new $100 million four-year term loan, it's already swapped. We have a forward on it. And so that rate will be called 4.75-ish on that. So we don't really have to do that. We already had a forward that we can just move over to that swap. So there's no new swap to fix it. So it'll be fixed at closing. It doesn't go all the way out to the full term of it. So we will at some point look to do the tail later.
Alec Feygin
But it'll be 4.75-ish at close. Okay, that's helpful. I had, you know, you talked in your prepared remarks about the loan maturing and as well as the rate being lowered on that residential construction loan. Do you have any visibility in any of your lenders potentially doing any early prepayments or payoffs in the loan book?
John Albright
There's some, but not a material amount.
Unknown Speaker
Got it. Thank you. That's it for me.
John Albright
Sure.
Philip Mays
Well, thank you, everyone.
Operator
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from John Massocca with Raleigh Securities. Your line is open.
John Massocca
I know you're not providing kind of '27 guidance at this point, but how are you thinking about kind of investment volume in the first half of next year just given, you know, taking down kind of a sizable transaction here at the end of the year? And I know there's some offsets to it, but you do have some of these loan commitments outstanding. I mean, is that, is it kind of fair, some of your peers have kind of also indicated that you might slow transaction volume at the start of next year, just as this capital market situation kind of shakes out or is that kind of being too much at into things that might be.
John Albright
Since we're basically doing the amount of investment volume this year equal to our market cap, you can probably figure that it should be less next year. So I don't know how many years we can kind of keep on doing our market cap investment. So, but, you know, look, we always, you know, it is too early, but, you know, for sure, if we find opportunities that really fit, we're going to find the capital. And it could be a partner, and that's easy if the capital markets are kind to our stock and our stock securities and we'll find external capital. There's incredible amount of that right now and they in the net lease space as you guys probably follow it better than we do that, you know, every private equity group, mammoth private equity groups have or starting net lease groups. So there's no shortage of capital, so we look forward to kind of finding those opportunities, and that's our job is to find the right capital for it.
John Massocca
Okay. Maybe circling back to the industrial acquisition, I know you haven't closed it yet, so maybe you're kind of reticent to provide too many details. When did this kind of come across your desk? Did we kind of get more color on pricing? I mean, is this kind of pricing in the new interest rate environment, or is this something that kind of was still attractive but maybe kind of sourced prior to the kind of tenure moving up significantly here at the end?
John Albright
Yeah, the portfolio sort of happened. It was not a long, drawn-out process. I mean, it had been fully marketed, but it was one where the pricing is somewhat reflecting this new environment of higher interest rates. So we're still very comfortable with where the cap rate is relative to where the 10-year is.
John Massocca
Okay, that's it for me. Thank you very much.
Operator
One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Craig Kucera with Lucid Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Craig Kucera
John, it's obviously a pretty tough housing environment given interest rates. Can you give us an update on how the projects underlying residential land loans are performing? You know, are they on track relative to budget or and and how are you feeling about exposure to residential land loans right now?
John Albright
Yeah, I mean, we feel very good with the ones that were in because they're second home, third home, fourth home sort of communities. And actually, we're very happy with the community. You know, believe it or not, the fall market is the strongest market. And I think, uh, you know, what you're seeing on the, you know, high, high net worth sort of folks is that, you know, owning sort of, you know, sticks and bricks isn't a bad thing to have. Um, so we're not worried about kind of where our position in these. It's not like, you know, first-time home buyers or move-ups. This is sort of like, you know, a lot of discretionary capital.
Craig Kucera
Got it. So not very interest-sensitive, more of a cash pay is what you're saying? Exactly. Okay. Okay. That's it for me. Thank you.
Operator
And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. And as such, this does conclude today's presentation. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.
This live transcript is auto-generated without human intervention or review.
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