Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của FIBK: Biên lợi nhuận mở rộng quý thứ 10 liên tiếp

FIBK đã báo cáo lợi nhuận ròng quý 3 giảm do quý trước bao gồm khoản lợi nhuận từ giao dịch chi nhánh, trong khi thu nhập lãi thuần và biên lãi thuần tiếp tục cải thiện. Ban lãnh đạo nhấn mạnh tăng trưởng tiền gửi cốt lõi, việc định giá lại tài sản và hoàn trả vốn tích cực là những động lực chính trong chiến lược lợi nhuận của ngân hàng.

Những điểm chính

• Lợi nhuận ròng quý 3/2026 đạt 62,2 triệu USD, tương đương 0,65 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng, so với 83,9 triệu USD, tương đương 0,87 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng trong quý 2/2026.
• Thu nhập lãi thuần tăng 2% so với quý trước lên 206,2 triệu USD. Biên lãi thuần trên cơ sở chịu thuế tương đương tăng 7 điểm cơ bản lên 3,55%, đánh dấu quý tăng thứ 10 liên tiếp.
• Tổng dư nợ cho vay giảm 296 triệu USD, phản ánh sự sụt giảm của hoạt động cho vay gián tiếp, giảm tín dụng ngoài địa bàn trọng điểm và sự thu hẹp danh mục cho vay nhà ở. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ có thêm các khoản tất toán cho vay thương mại trong quý 4.
• Tổng tiền gửi giảm 52,8 triệu USD xuống 21,4 tỷ USD, nhưng đã tăng so với quý trước nếu không tính việc chấm dứt hợp đồng với một khách hàng lớn, chi phí cao và có tài sản đảm bảo đầy đủ. Tiền gửi không trả lãi đã tăng trưởng quý thứ hai liên tiếp.
• FIBK đã mua lại khoảng 2 triệu cổ phiếu với giá khoảng 76 triệu USD trong quý 3. Kể từ khi chương trình bắt đầu vào tháng 8/2025, tổng số lượng cổ phiếu mua lại đạt khoảng 10 triệu cổ phiếu với giá trị 347 triệu USD.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến thu nhập lãi thuần quý 4 sẽ tăng ở mức trung vị của khoảng dự báo, mặc dù mức cải thiện biên lãi thuần so với quý trước sẽ nhỏ hơn so với quý 3.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Kết quả hoạt động kinh doanh

FIBK tiếp tục tái cơ cấu bảng cân đối kế toán và mạng lưới địa lý xung quanh định hướng ngân hàng quan hệ. Công ty đã rút khỏi một số thị trường phi chiến lược được chọn lọc, giảm cho vay ngoài địa bàn và thực hiện mở rộng hoặc sáp nhập chi nhánh dựa trên các cơ hội tăng trưởng tại địa phương.

Dư nợ cho vay giảm 296 triệu USD trong quý 3. Mức giảm bao gồm 47,7 triệu USD từ cho vay gián tiếp, 64,9 triệu USD từ danh mục cho vay ngoài địa bàn còn lại và 36,8 triệu USD từ cho vay nhà ở. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết một số khoản tất toán dự kiến đã chuyển sang đầu quý 4.

Cơ cấu tiền gửi được cải thiện mặc dù tổng số dư báo cáo giảm. Việc chấm dứt hợp đồng với một khách hàng lớn có chi phí cao đã đóng góp khoảng 3 điểm cơ bản vào việc mở rộng biên lãi thuần quý 3 và không ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến thu nhập lãi thuần. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết việc phát triển khách hàng mới vẫn duy trì tích cực, đặc biệt là ở khu vực Rocky Mountain, với các mối quan hệ mới mang lại tiền gửi vận hành và các dịch vụ liên quan.

Việc định giá lại tài sản tiếp tục là động lực thúc đẩy lợi nhuận. Ban lãnh đạo chỉ ra rằng lợi suất cho vay mới nằm trong khoảng giữa 6% và cho biết mức tăng khoảng 40 đến 50 điểm cơ bản đối với phân khúc trên 5 năm của danh mục đầu tư. Chi phí tiền gửi trả lãi tính riêng trong tháng 9 là 1,51%, so với 1,49% của cả quý.

Các chỉ số tín dụng về cơ bản ổn định. Dư nợ bị cảnh báo tăng 2,1 triệu USD, tương đương 0,2%, so với quý trước nhưng giảm 19% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Tài sản có vấn đề giảm 6% trong quý. Các cam kết xây dựng chưa giải ngân tăng làm tăng khoản trích lập dự phòng chưa giải ngân, trong khi ban lãnh đạo đánh giá các dự án cơ sở có mức giá và cấu trúc tốt.

FIBK có kế hoạch mở hai chi nhánh tại Colorado trong nửa đầu năm 2027 và sáp nhập ba địa điểm trong quý 4/2026. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết năng lực đội ngũ quản lý quan hệ khách hàng, công nghệ và hạ tầng hiện tại có thể hỗ trợ mức tăng trưởng theo kế hoạch mà không cần tăng thêm đáng kể chi phí đầu tư, mặc dù mức tăng chi phí lạm phát thông thường vẫn có khả năng xảy ra.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết mức trung vị trong triển vọng quý 4 giả định thu nhập lãi thuần tăng trưởng so với quý trước, được hỗ trợ bởi việc định giá lại tài sản, sự ổn định của tài sản sinh lời và kết quả tiền gửi không trả lãi tương đối khả quan.

Công ty dự kiến mức cải thiện biên lãi thuần so với quý trước trong quý 4 sẽ nhỏ hơn so với quý 3. Việc định giá lại tiền gửi sau đợt tăng lãi suất tháng 9 sẽ phản ánh đầy đủ hơn trong quý 4, trong khi lợi ích từ việc rút bớt khoản tiền gửi chi phí cao quy mô lớn đã được ghi nhận trong quý 3.

Số dư cho vay trong ngắn hạn dự kiến tiếp tục chịu áp lực từ các khoản tất toán dư nợ thương mại, việc phân bổ dần dư nợ cho vay gián tiếp và việc tiếp tục rút khỏi các khoản tín dụng ngoài địa bàn và không thuộc mảng ngân hàng quan hệ. Trong phần Hỏi & Đáp, ban lãnh đạo nhận định dư nợ cho vay quý 4 sẽ giảm và tiền gửi sẽ đi ngang đến tăng.

Việc định giá lại tài sản lãi suất cố định và dòng tiền từ danh mục đầu tư dự kiến sẽ hỗ trợ lợi suất tài sản sinh lời sang năm 2027. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các khoản vay đáo hạn có thể giúp lợi ích từ việc định giá lại rõ nét hơn trong năm 2027, nhưng không đưa ra dự báo chính thức cho năm 2027.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Các khoản tất toán cho vay thương mại bổ sung và việc thoái vốn khỏi tín dụng ngoài địa bàn có thể tiếp tục làm giảm số dư cho vay báo cáo và gây áp lực lên cơ cấu tài sản sinh lời.
• Lãi suất cao hơn có thể ảnh hưởng đến các bên vay hiện hữu và các khoản nợ sắp đáo hạn. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ kiểm tra ứng phó rủi ro (stress-test) cho các khoản gia hạn trước kịch bản lãi suất cao hơn và định kỳ rà soát các khoản dư nợ bị cảnh báo.
• Lỗ chưa thực hiện của danh mục đầu tư đã tăng do lãi suất tăng trong quý 3, mặc dù dòng tiền gốc dự kiến vẫn tương đối ổn định với rủi ro gia hạn thời gian thu hồi dòng tiền ở mức hạn chế.
• Tính mùa vụ của tiền gửi trong quý 4 có xu hướng mạnh hơn vào đầu quý và yếu hơn vào cuối quý, tạo ra sự không chắc chắn xung quanh số dư cuối năm.
• Xóa nợ ròng tăng nhẹ lên 9,9 triệu USD, trong khi chi phí trích lập dự phòng tín dụng bao gồm mức dự phòng cao hơn cho các khoản vay đã giải ngân và cam kết xây dựng chưa giải ngân.

Những điểm chính trong phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Tăng trưởng tiền gửi: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết kỳ vọng về tiền gửi cốt lõi cơ bản không thay đổi dù có sự điều chỉnh nhẹ trong dự báo công bố. Tăng trưởng số dư tiền gửi không trả lãi và số lượng khách hàng củng cố niềm tin của ngân hàng vào mảng tiền gửi. Công ty cũng nhấn mạnh không sử dụng các chương trình ưu đãi lãi suất để thúc đẩy tăng trưởng tiền gửi.

Thu nhập lãi thuần: Sau khi điều chỉnh cho khoảng 1 tỷ USD tiền gửi bị loại bỏ thông qua các giao dịch chi nhánh trong quý 4/2025 và quý 2/2026, ban lãnh đạo tin rằng FIBK đã bước vào giai đoạn mở rộng thu nhập lãi thuần. Việc tiếp tục định giá lại tài sản và sự ổn định của tiền gửi dự kiến sẽ hỗ trợ xu hướng này.

Phân bổ vốn: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết FIBK tiếp tục duy trì vị thế thặng dư vốn và có kế hoạch duy trì tính chủ động trong việc phân bổ vốn. Tăng trưởng bảng cân đối kế toán vẫn là ưu tiên hàng đầu và hiệu quả nhất trong việc sử dụng vốn, tuy nhiên ngân hàng không đưa ra mục tiêu mua lại cổ phiếu cụ thể cho quý.

Tăng trưởng cho vay: Quy mô phát hành cho vay thương mại đã tăng đáng kể so với cùng kỳ năm trước, nhưng danh mục cho vay thương mại cơ bản vẫn đi ngang hoặc giảm nhẹ. Ban lãnh đạo tin rằng ngân hàng đang tiến gần hơn đến điểm đảo chiều và có đủ năng lực quản lý quan hệ khách hàng để hỗ trợ tăng trưởng.

Hiệu quả hoạt động: Ban lãnh đạo không nhận thấy yêu cầu đầu tư bổ sung lớn nào còn thiếu cho sự tăng trưởng trong tương lai. Chi phí vẫn có thể tăng do đợt tăng lương định kỳ thông thường và lạm phát, trong khi tối ưu hóa chi nhánh và cải thiện quy mô tiếp tục là các ưu tiên hàng đầu.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Nancy Vermeulen. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Thank you, Megan. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings conference call. As we begin, please note that the information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes might differ materially from those expressed by those statements. I'd like to direct all our listeners to read the cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements contained in our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC and in our earnings release, as well as the risk factors identified in the quarterly report and our more recent periodic reports filed with the SEC. Relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements in the earnings release and in our SEC filings. The company does not undertake to update any of the forward-looking statements made today. A copy of our earnings release, which contains non-GAAP financial measures, is available on our website at fibk.com. Information regarding our use of the non-GAAP financial measures may be found on the body of the earnings release, and a reconciliation to their most comparable GAAP financial measures is included at the end of the earnings release for your reference. Again this quarter, along with our earnings release, we've published an updated investor presentation that has additional disclosures that we believe will be helpful. The presentation can be accessed on our investor relations website, and if you have not downloaded a copy yet, we encourage you to do so. Please also note that as we discuss our financials today, unless otherwise noted, all of the prior period comparisons will be with the second quarter of 2026. Joining us from management this morning are Jim Reuter, our Chief Executive Officer, David De La Camera, our Chief Financial Officer, and other members of our management team. Now, I'll turn the call over to Jim Reuter. Jim.

James Reuter

Thank you, Nancy, and thank you for joining us on our earnings call today. In the third quarter of 2026, we continued to execute against our multiyear strategic plan, further improving the long-term earnings power of the franchise. Net interest margin expanded for the 10th consecutive quarter and non-interest-bearing deposits continued to increase, reflecting our focus on relationship growth. We maintained our disciplined approach to long-term value creation, investing in the markets where we see the greatest opportunity to deepen customer relationships and grow core deposits, while enhancing shareholder returns through additional share repurchases. The execution of our multi-year strategy has required deliberate changes to both the composition of the balance sheet and our geographic footprint. We have exited certain non-strategic markets, initiated a long-term branch optimization program that includes both targeted expansion and consolidation and refocused lending activities to customers that align with our relationship banking model. Our primary objective is to protect and strengthen the quality of the deposit franchise and add new customers. As we expected, new client acquisition remained strong in the Rocky Mountain region. New production continued to be concentrated among relationship-based clients represented by operating deposits and associated services. Going forward, our capital, talent, and branch investments will increasingly follow markets where we have an existing franchise advantage or an attractive opportunity for relationship growth. We believe the current expense base supports a production level that would stabilize earning asset mix when producing at capacity. While we expect our new teams to follow a typical ramp-up period, we believe the banking organization now has the capacity and market coverage required to support growth. This improvement operating model strengthens one of our key differentiators, combining the relationship focus, local decision making and high touch service of a profitable community bank with the sophisticated treasury, commercial banking and wealth management solutions of a larger institution. We have seen meaningful improvement in criticized loan levels over the past 12 months, which reflects our long-term commitment to disciplined credit decision making. Credit was stable in the third quarter, with little change in criticized loans and a modest reduction in nonperforming assets. Effective risk management continues to be a priority for us as strong credit discipline combined with a high quality customer deposit foundation will support performance in all economic cycles. We believe our low cost deposit base, which is granular across a large number of customers and geographies, provides a competitive advantage over the long term. In the third quarter, we also continued to optimize our capital structure through prudent execution of our share repurchase program. We repurchased approximately 2 million shares during the quarter, bringing total repurchases to approximately 10 million shares since the program began in late August 2025. Together with our dividend, repurchases are an important component of our total shareholder return. Through ongoing fixed asset repricing, capital deployment, operating model optimization, and continued focus on relationship banking, we are building a more efficient organization. We remain confident in our ability to continue to deliver improved earnings over time. And with that, I will hand the call over to David. David.

Unknown Speaker

Thanks, Jim. I'll start with our results for the quarter. The company reported net income of $62.2 million, or $0.65 per diluted share, in the third quarter, compared to $83.9 million, or $0.87 per diluted share in the second quarter. Net interest income increased by $4 million compared to the prior quarter, or 2% to $206.2 million. Yield on average loans increased 5 basis points to 5.67% and total funding costs decreased 4 basis points compared to the second quarter. Deposit costs benefited from the exit of a large high cost fully collateralized customer where our long term return objectives were not being met. Excluding this balance, deposits increased during the quarter. This was a unique customer from both the size and pricing perspective. That exit contributed an approximately 3 basis point improvement to our net interest margin in the quarter and did not have a material impact on net interest income. Our fully taxable equivalent net interest margin was 3.55% for the third quarter compared to 3.48% during the second quarter and 3.36% during the third quarter of 2025. As Jim mentioned, this marks our 10th consecutive quarter of net interest margin expansion and fixed asset repricing should remain a tailwind to earning asset yields and underlying margin improvement into 2027. Over the past few years, we have used cash flows from the investment portfolio to eliminate wholesale borrowings, and since we began reinvesting in 2025, we have targeted shorter duration, reducing the balance sheet sensitivity to changes in interest rates. Based on our current interest rate risk modeling, the balance sheet is broadly neutral from a net interest income perspective in both the near term and over the next 12 months, while continued asset repricing and reinvestment at current market yields provide sequential support to earning asset yields. Non-interest income was $43.3 million, a decrease of $18.4 million from the prior quarter. This decrease primarily reflected the $19.5 million gain recognized in the second quarter from the Nebraska branch transaction. Non-interest expense was $157.1 million for the third quarter, a decrease of $1.8 million from the prior quarter. Moving to the balance sheet, loans decreased by $296 million in the third quarter. A number of payoffs we anticipated in the third quarter shifted into the early fourth quarter. As we look to the loan decline in the quarter, this was influenced by a $47.7 million decline in indirect lending loans, a $64.9 million decline in the retained out-of-market portfolio and a $36.8 million decline in the residential portfolio. While total deposits decreased $52.8 million to $21.4 billion in the quarter, when adjusted for the exit of the one large collateralized deposit, deposits increased quarter over quarter. Our deposit mix further improved in the quarter as non-interest-bearing balances extended the increase we experienced in the prior quarter. The ratio of loans held for investment to deposits was 65.4% at the end of the quarter compared to 66.6% at the end of the prior quarter and 70.1% at the end of the third quarter of last year. Turning to credit, net charge-offs increased by $0.2 million in the third quarter to $9.9 million, or 28 basis points of average loans. The company recorded a $10.5 million provision for credit losses in the third quarter, driven primarily by the charge-offs, a 2 basis point increase in funded loan ACL to 1.30% and higher unfunded allowance due mostly to an increase in unfunded construction commitments. Criticized loans were stable in the quarter with an increase of $2.1 million or 0.2% from the prior quarter and declined 19% from a year ago. Non-performing assets declined 6% during the quarter. We repurchased approximately 2 million shares in the third quarter, totaling approximately $76 million, and repurchases since the initiation of the program in August 2025 totaled about $347 million. Share repurchases remain a key capital allocation tool to drive shareholder value. The investment portfolio unrealized loss position increased with interest rates during the quarter, while expected principal cash flows remained relatively stable with limited extension. Our strategy diversifies risk through shorter maturities, floating rate products, and lower capital intensity instruments. Together with natural back book runoff, this improves our ability to manage interest rate exposure. While meaningful, the recent move in interest rates has not changed our near-term strategic capital deployment plans at this time, and all else being equal, should support asset repricing and medium-term earnings. Finally, we declared a dividend of $0.47 per common share, which equates to a 5% annualized yield based on the average closing price of the company's common stock during the third quarter. Our common equity tier one capital ratio ended the third quarter at 14.36%, a decrease of 18 basis points from the prior quarter. Our leverage ratio is 9.49% at the end of the third quarter, compared to 9.59% at the end of the prior quarter. Our capital levels provide us with the flexibility to enhance shareholder returns while supporting long-term accretive growth. Moving to our guidance. In line with the prior quarter, our balance sheet expectations continue to include more meaningful payoffs within our commercial loan portfolio in the fourth quarter and further success in exiting some non-relationship and out-of-market credits. On the deposit side, our guidance continues to incorporate the positive trends within customer acquisition. Our net interest income guidance at the midpoint assumes expansion in NII into the fourth quarter as we continue to benefit from meaningful repricing, a stabilization of earning assets, and relatively strong non-interest-bearing balance performance. The September rate increase benefited asset yields late in the third quarter, while the related deposit repricing will be more fully reflected in the fourth quarter. As a result of that, as well as the impact from the larger high-cost deposit exiting in the third quarter, we expect a smaller sequential margin benefit in the fourth quarter than we realized in the third quarter. Our expense forecast includes continued investment in areas that support our customer acquisition efforts, and as we referenced last quarter, we will be opening two branches in Colorado in the first half of 2027 and are consolidating three additional locations in the fourth quarter of this year. We will maintain our expense discipline and have been pairing noted investments with efficiencies. Over the prior 12 months, net interest margin has improved 19 basis points, and average deposits per average diluted share has improved approximately 3%. Average deposits per branch improved 6%, and net interest income per share improved 8% compared to the third quarter of 2025. With that, I'll hand the call back to Jim.

James Reuter

Thank you, David. Our multi-year strategy continues to gain traction across the franchise and enhance our long-term earnings power. Our capital deployment remains disciplined, balancing investments in high-opportunity markets to support future growth with share repurchases. We believe that the continued growth and non-interest-bearing deposits that we saw in the third quarter provides encouraging evidence that our relationship banking efforts are resonating with clients. Our go-to-market strategy has increased scalability, improved market alignment, and expanded banker capacity to fulfill our primary objectives of enhancing our best-in-class deposit franchise. We are well positioned to execute on our strategy across a range of interest rate environments. We look forward to future earnings calls as disciplined relationship growth and earning asset yield expansion increasingly contribute to results. And now I would like to open the call for questions.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. [Operator Instructions] We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Robert Andrew Terrell with Stephens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Phần hỏi đáp

Andrew Terrell

Good morning, Andrew. I wanted to start just on deposits. I appreciate the color around some of the moving pieces here in the third quarter. Looks like the fourth quarter guide or the full year guide kind of implies you step up from here. I think if I recall, there's usually some seasonal headwinds in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk through what you're seeing kind of boots on the ground from a deposit standpoint or deposit growth standpoint here in the fourth quarter? And what kind of gives you confidence about deposits maybe inching up?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, sure, Andrew. I think as you look to kind of the midpoint of that guide in the fourth quarter, that's generally implying about flat year over year when you back out some of those branch sales and that large deposit. And then as we look kind of to the underlying core, we're seeing that strength and non-interest-bearing. Our seasonality tends to be strong early in the fourth quarter, a little bit weaker late. So we think kind of putting those together, it's the right range for us to land in.

Andrew Terrell

Got it. Okay. And then, there's a question. I think you called out towards the end of your remarks, just the NII per share growth over the past 12 months. But when we look at it just straight NII dollars, it's down versus 3Q '25 when you look at it. When you look over the next 12 months, can you get NII growth without balance sheet growth just as a function of what you see in terms of margin expansion? Or do you really need to get back to balance sheet growth in order to drive actual dollar NII growth?

Unknown Speaker

I think if you look at major B-transact on the second one and you do a B-6, so those are not a B-6. So kind of adjusting. I think if you look back over the past year, there's a few different things. The two major being the branch transactions, right? So we had the branch transaction in 4Q '25 and then the second one in 2Q '26. And so those together took approximately $1 billion out of deposits. And so if you kind of adjust the NII for that, I think we're already at a point of expanding and then quarter over quarter, given the NII expansion there, and then our view that we think the deposit profile is stabilized, we view it as we're into the NII expansion part of the story.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Matthew Clark

Just on the asset repricing, the slide that you have in your deck is very helpful, but can you give us a sense for the pickup and spreads we should assume given where rates are today?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, sure. So investment portfolio side, I think about 5 year plus, we'll call it the 40 to 50 basis point ranges is right. We have a combination of again, variable and belly of the curve type of instruments. And so that's an approximate range on that front. On the lending side would point to third quarter, excuse me, new loan yields, kind of in that mid 6% range. There's of course been a lot of curve volatility, but that kind of can give you a broad understanding of where spreads are.

Matthew Clark

Got it. And then just on deposit costs. If we could get the spot rate at the end of September, given that large balance that left and then your deposit beta assumption on the way up here, I think you did 27% on the way down.

Unknown Speaker

Sure. And so on the cost of deposits, interest-bearing deposit cost for the full month of September was 151 versus 149 in the quarter. And then as we think about the forward expectation, I would view it as generally aligned with the disclosure we have in our Q and our NII modeling. And so I think that's the right way to think about it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Rulis with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jeff Rulis

Good morning. I wanted to check in maybe on the buyback appetite. If we think about 10 million shares roughly in the last year. I want to look forward to '27 and maybe the dynamics change as you as you turn to growth at some point, a resumption of. And so just want to kind of check in with that appetite level and understanding that that could alter over the course of the year, but just initial thoughts on, you know, roughly half that level or something matching it in any initial thoughts.

Unknown Speaker

Sure, Jeff. So I think a couple, couple things. I think near term, you know, we have what I would view as a holistic approach to capital planning. So kind of given the different factors, including visibility into the investment portfolio, cash flows, improving profitability, et cetera. We're, can we continue to be comfortable deploying capital. So I think, you know, we continue to be in that active part of the capital deployment plan. I think as we go forward, our levels continue to support meaningful deployment. Balance sheet growth is always going to be the first and most accretive option for capital allocation. And so as we see that low cost core deposit and lending growth, that would at some point impact capital deployment. But in the near term, we continue to be in an excess capital position. So we intend to continue deploying capital.

Jeff Rulis

David, just to kind of quantify that, 2 million shares, a quarter, 5 million shares, for the next couple quarters is sort of the view. And then thereafter, maybe lessening as as growth comes on. Is that oversimplifying?

Unknown Speaker

I think each quarter will depend on the facts and circumstances. We don't have a specific quarterly target. It'll depend on market factors, what we're seeing for balance sheet growth, et cetera. But I think I would just point you to, we continue to be and intend to be active, but facts and circumstances will develop over time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Liesch with Benchmark Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Thank you. Andrew, can you check if your mic is muted, please?

Unknown Speaker

Can you hear me now? Oh, sorry about that. No, my question was really on the, it sounds.

Operator

Yes, we can. Thank you.

Unknown Speaker

Like there were some payoffs expected in the loan book in the third quarter that were pushed into the fourth. Can you maybe quantify that amount so we know where we're starting off with here at the in the fourth quarter for loan balances?

Unknown Speaker

Yes Andrew, I think I would just point you to kind of if you look to where our guidance is for year end, that's informed by some of our view of payoffs and we've seen some of those early October and so those have come through as expected. I think if you look at where those are coming from, we've talked about that out-of-market portfolio that continues to be a main driver and something we're looking at, actively working through and having success there. And then, you know, continue to see that indirect amortization as well as other activity. Not a specific figure there, but I think the midpoint of the loan guide is a reasonable point, and that's what we think is our best estimate.

Unknown Speaker

Got it. And then the commentary on earning assets stabilizing, is that really a comment on deposit growth and where deposit balances are? And I guess, how does deposit growth look here going into the fourth quarter and into next year? So should we start to see earning assets rise?

Unknown Speaker

Yes, so earning assets from here is a function of deposit growth, of course, being. I think from an underlying deposit perspective, we've seen our second consecutive quarter of non-interest-bearing expansion, both periodically and on a year-over-year basis when adjusted for the sold deposits. And so we're very pleased with that. It's an important part of our strategy. And if you look to how we're executing out in the market, it's a full relationship approach. And so that's where we think that's very important. And so yes, you're right, it is a function of deposit growth. And then I think too early to provide a '27 guide, but our focus continues to be on enhancing and growing that deposit franchise. And so our intent is to grow our assets.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kelly Motta with KBW. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Kelly Motta

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the question. Maybe sticking on the topic of deposits, the guide was reduced slightly and I know we're maintaining deposit balances and relationships is really key for the longer term outlook for the franchise. Just wondering, looks like it was mostly on the rate side, but if you could speak to that drivers of the reduction in the deposit guide for the year.

Unknown Speaker

Yeah, I think just a couple comments. One, I would say just kind of tweaking is in zooming in as we get closer at the end of the year, but two we talked about that large deposit exiting. So our actual expectation and view of what we'll call the underlying core deposits hasn't changed. We're continuing to see strength there. And again, a couple quarters in a row if not in the next.

James Reuter

Interest-bearing growth. And Kelly, one thing I would add to it is we've seen an improvement in the growth and number of clients as well, which is, you know, I think a direct result of some branding efforts and also frankly our bankers doing a great job of expanding relationships and as you know, growth and number of clients begets growth and deposits in the long term and generates new fee income opportunities. We're happy with what we're seeing at the core of the bank.

Kelly Motta

Yes, yes, totally, totally understood. I think switching to credit cards is a credit quality. You know, criticized remain elevated, although overall we haven't seen much by way of increased credit costs and the charge-offs have been within guide. Just wondering if you're starting, if it how it how you're thinking about the overall outlook for the health of the portfolio in the higher rate environment, if there's anything at the margins where you're seeing incremental stress, and then also wondering, you guys have been so proactive on the credit front, if that's been overall incrementally probably helpful here as we go into this rate cycle.

James Reuter

Yeah, thanks for the question, Kelly. Yeah, you're right. We saw less improvement in credit quality when compared to the previous quarter. However, I think I mentioned it in my opening comments were down in criticized loans 18% year over year and you know as I said on previous calls it's a dynamic part of the bank so it won't move in a straight linear path quarter to quarter but directionally over the long term, we anticipate continued improvement in that area and you know we remain focused on that primary source of repayment and you know, that focuses on whether the property and or businesses performing as expected. As to the higher rates, that's a good question. And, you know, just offer a few thoughts on that front. There's no doubt higher rates can impact existing loans on the books. You know, as to the criticized loans, these loans are consistently reviewed by our bankers and credit teams to discussed and so you know, confident we have a good handle on the impact of higher rates across all economic risk factors. And then in addition, we stress upcoming maturities for higher rates. Becomes part of the renewal conversation with borrowers as we approach the maturity date, so you said it. I'm a big believer in proactive credit risk management and I think you've seen that over the past two years because that's what sets you up to perform well in all economic cycles.

Kelly Motta

Great. Thank you so much for the callers. I'll step back.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Timothy Coffey with Janney Montgomery Scott LLC. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Timothy Coffey

Thank you. Derek, can we follow up on the kind of topic on the mix of earning assets? Because as we see in the last several quarters, the percentage of loans and earning assets has come down, and now you've built up a securities portfolio that's putting off regular cash. Is it possible we could start to see the mix of earning assets to start to turn towards more loans relative to the sources of liquidity?

Unknown Speaker

I think near term that's not our expectation, you know, in the fourth quarter. So the guidance, our loans decline, deposits, you know, flat to higher in the fourth quarter. And so, you know, I think into '27. It'll just be depend on pace of lending versus deposit growth. Of course, we're not going to provide a forecast today or a guide today on '27. But we're seeing good underlying activity in lending. But I think near term, we would expect continued pressure on the mix. Long term, our intent is to stabilize or improve that.

Timothy Coffey

Okay. And then a question about the chart on page six, the average deposits per branch. In the current rate environment, I mean, is that is $79 million the right number per branch given that the break-even point for a branch is probably higher since interest rates are higher?

James Reuter

Yeah, I mean, the break-even rate per branch depends on the cost of the branch and if you look at our footprint, we would have some pretty low cost branches in the mix. You know, I think the median peers about $150 million, and you know, we've always said given our footprint of higher mix of some rural and mid markets, our average branch size will not look like that of the peers. But like I said, the underlying expense structure is also different. But, you know, the branch optimization efforts you've seen us deploy here, whether it's closing and consolidating, that's helped improve that about 10% over the last 18 months. And, you know, our goal would be to improve that number over time.

Timothy Coffey

All right, great. Thanks, gentlemen.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Samuel Varga with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Samuel Varga

Hey, good morning. I just wanted to go back to the comments you just made on the earning asset mix and how it's shifting towards securities in 4Q. I guess in that sort of backdrop, the implications of margin? What is the true incentive for pushing deposit growth?

Unknown Speaker

So I think deposit growth is always going to be our number one priority that's what creates near and long term franchise value and so I think across all environments will look to drive customer acquisition and deposit growth and then the mix again fourth quarter is just our view that we see some near term payoffs, especially in that out-of-market and other portfolios. And so that we think drives reported lending balances around the fourth quarter.

James Reuter

Yes, and I would just add that we're not running rate promotions to grow deposits. That's why we called out its two consecutive quarters of growth in non-interest-bearing deposits. That's the granular, low-cost funding that I think is the power of the franchise, and we're going to keep building on that.

Samuel Varga

Thank you for that. And just a quick one on unfunded commitments. Could you give us an update for how those trended in 3Q and what the pipelines look.

Unknown Speaker

Sure. So we saw an increase in the third quarter in that construction line, and we noted that as a driver of the increase in unfunded provisions. So we were pleased with that. Those were a variety of well-priced, well-structured projects. And so it's an example of some of that underlying improvement we're seeing in customer acquisition in production, that'll of course fund more as a '27 impact, but we're seeing some encouraging signs there. Again, would point to that unfunded provision increase.

Samuel Varga

Thank you for taking my question.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Terence McEvoy with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Terence McEvoy

Great. Good morning. First question, underneath the planned loan payoffs and paydowns, what is the underlying growth? And I'm trying to get a sense for what you refer to on your guidance slide as improved commercial production. And is that component, is that growth accelerating and can that accelerate? Acceleration of growth continue into next year. We'd love to have some context behind that.

Unknown Speaker

Sure, so I'll start with a couple of comments. I think as we look year over year, we have seen a material increase in commercial production. I think there's one more increase we're looking for to have that underlying portfolio grow. But from a reported perspective and noted it a little bit in the prepared remarks, there are a series of portfolios in the near term impacting reporting balances with reported balances, excuse me, which points to that underlying commercial book being closer to flat but still modestly declining at this point as we look to '27, would note the addition of RMs and capacity we think sits in the business and so. You know, we're not today giving a specific point. We think that turns, but we think we are closer than further away. And we think we have the right capacity in the business.

Terence McEvoy

Great, thank you. And that's what I was looking for. And then maybe as a follow up, what are the remaining opportunities to improve efficiency? And basically, do you think you can generate positive operating leverage next year without meaningful balance sheet growth?

Unknown Speaker

Sure. So, I would say again, still too early to provide a '27 guide, but I think as we look to our margin, think through '27, there's continued fixed asset repricing. I think there it actually could become a little bit more meaningful in 2027 as you look to the quantity of loan maturities and then continued significant cash flow in the investment portfolio and a supportive yield curve and then stability and modest growth in the underlying core low cost deposit franchise is helpful. The combination of those we think is very powerful to NII, and again, just from a high level perspective, there's a significant quantity of trapped earnings in those assets that are curing currently and through '27 and on. And so we think we're well positioned. Again, don't want to provide a '27 guide today, but we think there are some very strong underlying factors supporting '27 and forward.

Terence McEvoy

Appreciate that. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Rulis with D.A. Davidson. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jeff Rulis

Thanks, Jim. I just wanted to circle back to a comment you made in the prepared remarks about the expense-based supporting earning asset growth from here. You've had the branch sales in the rear view and you've kind of been bouncing non-interest expense in that $157 million, $158 million a quarter. Maybe trying to get a sense for what expense growth looks like. I mean that maybe that comment implies that you kind of hold the line and can grow off that. Any other detail to help on what I think what you meant by that would be helpful.

James Reuter

Yeah, thanks, Jeff. First, I just mentioned we'll be providing '27 guide in January in the first quarter. But what that statement meant is, for the growth we want to go get, we have what we need in terms of RMs, technology, infrastructure. So there's no step up needed from an investment standpoint to grow the bank beyond where we are today.

Jeff Rulis

OK, appreciate the no guidance. Effectively, well, yes, I'll step back.

Unknown Speaker

Jeff, would just add, I think year over year and again, we won't provide the '27 figure, but it is not reasonable to expect normal inflationary factors on our expense base, so we wouldn't be holding to a nominal figure year over year when you get normal merit and things like that. But again, we don't view there's a significant missing piece of investment needed outside of normal factors.

Jeff Rulis

Okay, helpful. Thank you, David.

James Reuter

All right. Well, thank you for joining the call today and thank you for the questions. And as always, we welcome calls from investors and analysts. So please reach out if you have any follow-up questions and thank you for tuning into the call today. Have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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