Peoples Bancorp (PEBO) Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026: Tăng trưởng biên lợi nhuận và triển vọng sáp nhập

Điểm tin chính

• Peoples Bancorp Inc. đã báo cáo EPS pha loãng quý 3 năm 2026 đạt 0,91 USD và EPS pha loãng điều chỉnh đạt 1,04 USD.
• Thu nhập lãi thuần tăng 1%, tương đương 1,1 triệu USD, so với quý 2, trong khi biên lãi thuần mở rộng 8 điểm cơ bản. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến biên lãi thuần sẽ cải thiện thêm 8–10 điểm cơ bản trong quý 4 sau sáp nhập với Citizens.
• Thu nhập từ phí tăng 5% so với quý trước. Chi phí dự phòng rủi ro tín dụng giảm 24% xuống 3,6 triệu USD, mặc dù tỷ lệ xóa nợ ròng quy năm tăng từ 31 điểm cơ bản lên 35 điểm cơ bản.
• Tăng trưởng dư nợ cho vay đạt 19 triệu USD, tương đương 1% quy năm, bất chấp hơn 160 triệu USD khoản vay thương mại được tất toán. Vụ sáp nhập Citizens dự kiến sẽ đóng góp thêm khoảng 350 triệu USD dư nợ cho vay và 550 triệu USD tiền gửi trong quý 4.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự báo biên lãi thuần cả năm 2026 đạt 4,2%–4,3%, thu nhập từ phí hàng quý đạt 28 triệu–30 triệu USD và tăng trưởng cho vay đạt 6%–8%, bao gồm cả các khoản vay nhận sáp nhập từ Citizens.
• Peoples dự kiến sẽ hoàn tất vụ sáp nhập Citizens vào cuối tháng 10 năm 2026. Thương vụ thâu tóm Capital Bank Corp dự kiến sẽ hoàn tất vào khoảng cuối quý 1 hoặc đầu quý 2 năm 2027.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Quý này bao gồm khoản lỗ 4,5 triệu USD từ việc bán chứng khoán đầu tư, làm giảm 0,10 USD EPS pha loãng, và 1,5 triệu USD chi phí liên quan đến thâu tóm, làm giảm 0,03 USD EPS. Nếu loại trừ chi phí thâu tóm, chi phí ngoài lãi đi ngang so với quý trước.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Theo ban lãnh đạo, quy mô phát sinh cho vay thương mại đạt mức cao thứ ba theo quý từ trước đến nay, với cơ cấu dư nợ tiếp tục dịch chuyển sang cho vay thương mại và công nghiệp. Dư nợ cho vay xây dựng tăng 40 triệu USD, cho vay thương mại và công nghiệp tăng 34 triệu USD, và hạn mức tín dụng thế chấp nhà tăng 10 triệu USD.

Các mức tăng này bị bù trừ một phần bởi mức giảm 38 triệu USD dư nợ bất động sản thương mại, 14 triệu USD dư nợ bất động sản nhà ở và 12 triệu USD dư nợ cho thuê tài chính. Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng phần lớn đà giảm của bất động sản thương mại là do khách hàng tất toán khoản vay. Peoples đã ghi nhận hơn 160 triệu USD khoản vay thương mại được tất toán trong quý và khoảng 460 triệu USD trong 9 tháng đầu năm 2026.

Tiền gửi cốt lõi không bao gồm CD môi giới tăng 19 triệu USD. Tiền gửi thanh toán có trả lãi tăng 52 triệu USD và tài khoản thị trường tiền tệ tăng 46 triệu USD, bị bù trừ một phần bởi mức giảm 44 triệu USD ở mảng CD bán lẻ và 34 triệu USD ở các tài khoản không trả lãi.

Peoples đã bán khoảng 59 triệu USD chứng khoán có lợi suất khoảng 1,5%, ghi nhận khoản lỗ 4,5 triệu USD. Việc tái cơ cấu này nhằm giữ tổng tài sản dưới 10 tỷ USD cho đến cuối năm và cải thiện lợi suất danh mục đầu tư.

Mức xóa nợ đối với danh mục cho thuê tài chính giá trị nhỏ tiếp tục giảm. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến danh mục này, hiện quy mô khoảng 100 triệu USD, sẽ tăng trưởng trở lại vào năm 2027, trong đó đà tăng trưởng tập trung vào nửa cuối năm và đã được đưa vào triển vọng tăng trưởng cho vay của công ty.

Triển vọng từ Ban lãnh đạo

Triển vọng năm 2026 của ban lãnh đạo không bao gồm chi phí không cốt lõi nhưng đã tính đến vụ sáp nhập Citizens:

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến biên lãi thuần quý 4 sẽ tăng khoảng 8–10 điểm cơ bản sau giao dịch Citizens, việc tái cơ cấu chứng khoán và việc bổ sung mảng tiền gửi của Citizens.

Đối với năm 2027, không bao gồm các chi phí không cốt lõi và thương vụ sáp nhập Capital theo kế hoạch, ban lãnh đạo đưa ra triển vọng như sau:

Triển vọng biên lãi thuần năm 2027 dựa trên giả định Cục Dự trữ Liên bang (Fed) tăng lãi suất 25 điểm cơ bản vào cuối năm 2026, sau đó là các đợt tăng vào tháng 3 và tháng 9 năm 2027. Ban lãnh đạo ước tính hệ số beta khoảng 30% đối với tiền gửi không kỳ hạn, bao gồm cả số dư không trả lãi.

Rủi ro và Các mảng trọng tâm

Dư nợ thuộc nhóm nợ bị phân loại tăng 30 triệu USD sau khi hạ nhóm nợ đối với hai khách hàng bất động sản thương mại và một khách hàng thương mại & công nghiệp. Ban lãnh đạo đang xử lý thu hồi/rút khỏi các khoản tín dụng này và không dự kiến tổn thất lớn, nhưng dự báo dư nợ thuộc nhóm bị chú ý và bị phân loại sẽ tăng trong quý 4 khi tiếp nhận các khoản vay của Citizens.

Nợ quá hạn cho vay tiêu dùng gián tiếp tăng nhẹ. Ban lãnh đạo dẫn chứng áp lực đối với người tiêu dùng, lãi suất tăng và giá nhiên liệu cao hơn, đồng thời lưu ý rằng các khoản vay mới phát sinh vẫn duy trì điểm tín dụng trung bình gần 750.

Cạnh tranh tiền gửi đã gia tăng và ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ quản lý áp lực chi phí vốn cao hơn một phần thông qua việc biểu giá CD bán lẻ. Peoples cũng cho biết khoản lỗ chứng khoán khoảng 2 triệu–3 triệu USD nữa có thể xảy ra trong quý 4, tùy thuộc vào điều kiện thị trường và việc quản lý quy mô tài sản.

Công ty tiếp tục ước tính mức giảm 11 triệu USD doanh thu phí quẹt thẻ hàng năm bắt đầu từ tháng 7 năm 2028 theo ngưỡng quy định liên quan đến Đạo luật Durbin. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết giao dịch với Capital không làm thay đổi đáng kể ước tính này.

Điểm tin Q&A với Chuyên viên Phân tích

• Thời điểm thực hiện giao dịch Capital: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến thương vụ thâu tóm sẽ hoàn tất vào khoảng cuối Q1 hoặc đầu Q2 năm 2027. Mức tiết kiệm chi phí toàn bộ từ Capital dự kiến phải đến năm 2028 mới đạt được.
• Biên lãi thuần sau khi thâu tóm Capital: Khi kết quả của Capital được phản ánh đầy đủ vào kết quả hàng quý, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến biên lãi thuần sẽ tiệm cận, đạt hoặc duy trì ở mức gần 5%. Ngân hàng không dự kiến biên lãi thuần cả năm 2027 đạt 5% vì giao dịch này sẽ không đóng góp cho toàn bộ năm.
• Yếu tố không chắc chắn về việc tất toán khoản vay: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ có thêm 150 triệu–180 triệu USD khoản vay được tất toán, nhưng chưa chắc chắn liệu việc tất toán này sẽ diễn ra trong Q4 2026 hay chuyển sang Q1 2027.
• Cơ cấu dư nợ cho vay năm 2027: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến mức tăng trưởng thương mại khoảng 5% và tăng trưởng mảng cho thuê tài chính 6%–7%, trong đó sự mở rộng mảng thương mại tập trung nhiều hơn vào thương mại & công nghiệp (C&I) so với bất động sản thương mại.
• Tỷ lệ bao phủ dự phòng rủi ro: Tỷ lệ dự phòng rủi ro trên dư nợ cho vay dự kiến ban đầu duy trì ở mức gần 1,11% và có khả năng tăng dần lên khoảng 1,2% theo thời gian sau khi hợp nhất Capital. Thương vụ Citizens dự kiến sẽ không ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến tỷ lệ này.
• Độ nhạy cảm với lãi suất: Ban lãnh đạo đánh giá Peoples ở trạng thái trung lập đến nhạy cảm nhẹ với tài sản và ước tính rằng đợt tăng lãi suất 25 điểm cơ bản sẽ đóng góp thêm khoảng 5 điểm cơ bản cho biên lãi thuần.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Peoples Bancorp Inc.'s conference call. My name is Gary and I will be your conference facilitator. Today's call will cover a discussion of the results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. [Operator Instructions]

This call is also being recorded. If you object to the recording, please disconnect at this time. Please be advised that the commentary in this call will contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding PPG's future financial performance or future events. These statements are based on management's current expectations. The statements in this call, which are not historical fact, are forward-looking statements and involve a number of risks and uncertainties detailed in Peoples' Securities and Exchange Commission filings. The management believes the forward-looking statements made during this call are based on reasonable assumptions within the bounds of their knowledge of Peoples' business and operations. However, it is possible actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements.

Peoples disclaims any responsibility to update these forward-looking statements after this call, except as may be required by applicable legal requirements. Peoples' third quarter 2026 earnings release and earnings conference call presentation were issued this morning and are available at peoplesbankcorp.com under Investor Relations. A reconciliation of the non-generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP financial measures discussed during this call to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is included at the end of the earnings release. This call will include about 15 to 20 minutes of prepared commentary, followed by a question and answer period, which I will facilitate. An archived webcast of this call will be available on peoplesbankcorp.com in the Investor Relations section for one year. Participants in today's call will be Tyler Wilcox, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Kathryn Bailey, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, and each will be available for questions following opening statements. Mr. Wilcox, you may begin your conference.

Tyler Wilcox

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Activity levels at Peoples are high as we focus on a number of strategic priorities, working to close the Citizens merger at the end of this month. We also recently announced the pending acquisition of Capital Bank Corp, which we expect to close in 2027. We are excited about these strategic initiatives and the opportunity to enhance our capabilities, products, services, and company performance as a result of investments. Focusing on the present, we continue to be pleased with our consistent and high-performing core results as reflected in our third quarter 2026 earnings, which we released earlier this morning. For the third quarter, we reported diluted earnings per share of $0.91. When adjusted for one-time items, our diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.04, which exceeded consensus analysts' estimates of $0.93.

Our one-time items for the quarter included a $4.5 million loss on investment securities, which reduced diluted EPS by ¢10. This was part of our planned effort to remain below $10 billion in assets with the pending Citizens merger and acquisition-related expenses of $1.5 million, which reduced our diluted EPS by 3 cents. Some of our highlights for the third quarter include improvements in our net interest income, which was up 1%, expansion in our net interest margin of eight basis points, growth in our fee-based income of 5%, provision for credit losses declined 24%, improvement in our efficiency ratio adjusted for one-time items, higher return on average assets, which was 1.36%, increased return on average stockholders' equity of 10.44%, declines of 11% in our non-performing growth in our lower-cost interest-bearing demand deposit and money market accounts of nearly $100 million combined, and improved regulatory capital ratios. Our provision for credit losses declined to $3.6 million, a 24% reduction compared to the second quarter.

Our allowance for credit losses to total loans was 1.11%, a three basis point decrease compared to June 30th. The reduction in our provision for credit losses for the quarter was due to declines in reserves for individually analyzed loans, coupled with updates to our prepayment, curtailment, and funding rates, partially offset by higher net charge-offs. Our annualized quarterly net charge-off rate grew to 35 basis points compared to 31 basis points for the linked quarter. For the third quarter, we had higher commercial and industrial loan charge-offs, along with increases in commercial real estate and consumer indirect loan charge-offs. At the same time, we had a reduction of 25% in our lease charge-offs. As anticipated, our small ticket lease charge-offs have declined throughout 2026. We remain committed to our small-ticket leasing business, and see a return to growth coming throughout the year in 2027 with a focus on appropriate risk-adjusted returns and minimized volatility. For the third quarter, our non-performing loans declined $4 million, or 11%, compared to the linked quarter end, which was driven by lower non-accrual loans.

Indexed loans decreased $18 million, while classified loans grew $30 million. For the third quarter, we had downgrades of two commercial real estate relationships and one commercial and industrial relationship, which drove the increase. We do not anticipate significant losses as we are in the process of exiting these credits. We expect an increase in our Criticized and Classified Loan balances during the fourth quarter as we onboard the loan portfolio from the Citizens Merger. Our delinquency levels continue to improve with 99.2% of our loan portfolio considered current at September 30th compared to 99.1% at the linked quarter end. Moving on to loan balances, we had increases of $19 million or 1% annualized compared to June 30th. We mentioned on our last quarterly earnings call that we had expected payoffs later in the year that would be a headwind for loan growth, and we realized some of that this quarter with commercial payoffs of over $160 million.

We have also been selective with our lending activity, as we are strategically managing under the $10 billion mark through year-end. Most of our increases in balances was in construction loans, which were up $40 million, while commercial and industrial loans and home equity lines of credit grew $34 million and $10 million, respectively. We had reductions of $38 million in our commercial real estate loans, which were due to the aforementioned payoffs, while residential real estate loans declined $14 million and leases were down $12 million. For the fourth quarter, the Citizens merger is expected to add nearly $350 million of loans before purchase accounting adjustments. I will now turn the call over to Kathryn for a discussion of our financial performance.

Kathryn Bailey

Thanks, Tyler. Our net interest income grew 1% or $1.1 million, while our net interest margin improved 8 basis points. Increased investment in loan yields contributed to the higher margin, while net interest income benefited from higher loan income. Accretion income totaled $1 million compared to $1.1 million for the linked quarter, contributing four basis points and five basis points to net interest margin, respectively. For the first nine months of 2026, net interest income improved 5% or $12.8 million. Net interest margin expanded eight basis points over the same period and was mostly attributable to our lower deposit costs. Our interest expense on deposits declined nearly $19 million compared to the first nine months of 2025. Accretion income totaled $3.4 million compared to $7.8 million for 2025, five basis points and 12 basis points to net interest margin, respectively.

As it relates to our interest rate exposure, we are relatively neutral to slightly asset sensitive. We have been in this position for several quarters and the two pending mergers will not have a meaningful impact on our overall interest rate risk position. Moving on to our fee-based income, we had growth of 5% compared to the linked quarter, driven by higher lease income, as well as increases in deposit account service charges, trust and investment income, and bank-owned life insurance income. For the first nine months of 2026, fee-based income grew 8%. The improvement was mostly due to increased lease income, trust and investment income, and deposit account service charges. Our non-interest expenses were up 2% compared to the linked quarter. This included $1.5 million of acquisition-related expenses, which were largely professional fees.

Excluding these expenses, non-interest expenses were flat compared to the second quarter. For the first nine months of 2026, non-interest expenses were up 4%. This included $1.9 million of acquisition-related expenses, which was the primary driver of our higher professional fees. Salaries and employee benefits also contributed to the growth, along with operating lease expense, which corresponds to our fee-based lease income. Our reported efficiency ratio was 58.5% for the third quarter, an increase compared to 58.3% for the linked quarter. Excluding acquisition-related expenses, our adjusted efficiency ratio was 57.3% for the third quarter compared to 57.9% for the second quarter. For the first nine months of 2026, our reported efficiency ratio was 58.5% compared to 59% for the prior year and was driven by higher revenue.

Excluding acquisition-related expenses, our adjusted efficiency ratio was 57.9% for 2026 compared to 59% for 2025. Looking at our balance sheet, our investment portfolio as a percent of total assets declined to 18.3% at quarter end compared to 19.1% at June 30th. We completed another sale of securities as part of our investment portfolio restructuring related to the Citizens Merger, which resulted in a $4.5 million loss for the quarter on the sale of approximately $59 million of securities. In addition to providing flexibility to remain under $10 billion, this will also improve the yield on our investment portfolio. Our loan-to-deposit ratio grew at quarter end to 91.9% compared to 91.5% at the linked quarter end, mostly due to lower deposits and some loan growth for the third quarter. Our core deposit balances, which excludes brokered CDs, were up $19 million compared to June 30th. We had significant increases in our interest-bearing demand and money market accounts, which were up $52 million and $46 million respectively.

These increases were partially offset by reductions of $44 million in retail CDs and $34 million in non-interest-bearing accounts. Our demand deposits as a percent of total deposits was flat at 36% for both September 30th and June 30th. Our non-interest-bearing deposits to total deposits ratio was unchanged at 21% at quarter end and at June 30th. The Citizens Merger is expected to add approximately $550 million of deposits for the fourth quarter of 2026. As far as our capital levels, all of our regulatory capital ratios improved compared to the linked quarter end as earnings outpaced dividends. Our tangible equity to tangible asset ratio declined this quarter and was negatively impacted by increased unrealized losses on our available for sale investment portfolio. I will now turn the call back over to Tyler for his closing comments.

Tyler Wilcox

Thank you, Kathryn. We are focusing on successfully closing the Citizens merger this month, while also prioritizing our work on the pending Capital merger. These mergers will set the stage for our future strategic growth, including expanded market areas within our footprint, through financial metrics such as higher net interest margin and lower efficiency ratio, and the ability for our associates to have more meaningful conversations with existing and new clients about the diversified products and services we provide. For the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, we have the following performance expectations, excluding the impact of non-core expenses, but including our Citizens merger. We expect to achieve positive operating leverage for 2026 compared to 2025. We anticipate our net interest margin will be between 4.2% and 4.3% for the full year of 2026. We believe our quarterly fee-based income will range between $28 million and $30 million. We expect quarterly total non-interest expense to be between $78 million and $80 million.

We believe loan growth will be between 6% to 8% for 2026 compared to 2025, which includes the acquired loans from Citizens. We continue to anticipate a reduction in our net charge-offs for 2026 compared to 2025, which we expect to continue to positively impact provision for credit losses, excluding any changes in the economic forecasts. We expect between $11 million and $13 million of acquisition-related expenses during the fourth quarter for the Citizens Merger. We would also like to provide some high-level expectations for 2027, excluding the impact of non-core expenses and the planned Capital merger. We expect to achieve positive operating leverage for 2027 compared to 2026. For the full year of 2027, we anticipate our net interest margin will be between 4.3% and 4.5%. This assumes a 25 basis point increase in rates from the Federal Reserve in late 2026, one in March 2027, and another in September of 2027.

We believe our quarterly fee-based income will range between $31 million and $33 million. Our first quarter fee-based income is typically elevated, as it includes annual performance-based insurance commissions. We expect quarterly total non-interest expense to be between $80 million and $82 million for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2027, with the first quarter of 2027 being higher due to the annual expenses we typically recognize during the first quarter of each year. We believe our loan growth will be between 3% and 5% compared to 2026, which is dependent on the timing of paydowns on our portfolio. We anticipate similar charge-offs and net charge-off rate for 2027 compared to 2026, which includes projected increases related to the addition of the Citizens portfolio. We look to have a strong close to our 2026 performance and continue to be optimistic about our strategic plans and ability to execute on the pending mergers and future growth. Laying out a path beyond the $10 billion threshold is the culmination of years of strategic planning and patience.

The investments we have made in people, technology, and infrastructure are in place today and operating as if we have already crossed that milestone. We have proven our ability to provide reliable results for our shareholders and improve performance both organically and through acquisitions. We will continue to place importance on the value we provide as an investment to our shareholders and the return that we produce. We will focus on being a top-notch employer and sharing our culture with our new associates from our mergers. We will make meaningful investments in the communities we serve and provide high-quality, trusted solutions for all of our clients. That concludes our commentary and we will open the call for questions. Once again, this is Tyler Wilcox and joining me for the Q&A session is Kathryn Bailey, our Chief Financial Officer.

I will now turn the call back into the hands of our call facilitator.

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question today is from Ryan Payne with DA-Davidson. Please go ahead.

Phần hỏi đáp

Ryan Payne

Good morning. This is Ryan Payne on for Jeff Roulis today. I heard you on the expected Citizens close later this month. Any update on close timing for Capital next year?

Tyler Wilcox

Yes, our expectation is sometime very end of first quarter, beginning of second quarter.

Ryan Payne

Got it. And on the security sale, some more detail on that. What was the timing of that during the quarter, the yield on those securities, and as well as the expected impact on NIM going forward?

Kathryn Bailey

Yes, so it happened in August, and the yield on the amount we sold was about 1.5%. And the impact to margin on a go-forward, I think was the third part of your question. I think we expect a slight increase of a few basis points.

Ryan Payne

Last for me, Durbin impact, we last heard an $11 million annual hit to those fees beginning July 2028. Just wanted to confirm that or if anything has changed there.

Kathryn Bailey

No, that's still the number. And again, as a reminder that we noted in the capital announcement that they have minimal impact to our Durbin into interchange income. So the number has not really changed. Understood.

Ryan Payne

Thanks, guys.

Tyler Wilcox

Thank you.

Kathryn Bailey

Thank you, Ryan.

Operator

The next question is from Tim DeLacy with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Timothy DeLacey

Hey, good morning, Tyler. Good morning, Kathryn. Just filling in for Danny this morning. Hey, Tyler, maybe starting off on loan growth, you know, growth is obviously relatively modest this quarter. You kind of laid out some of the factors that played in there and kind of laid out the 3% to 5% target for next year. You know, just curious how the commercial pipelines are looking today, you know, where you're seeing the drivers of growth coming from in the near term, whether you're expecting some of those payoff headwinds to start easing as we move into '27 here.

Tyler Wilcox

Thanks for the question. My hope is, yes, we will see some of that easing. Let me lay out a few thoughts for you as to demand. This was actually our third highest quarter ever of commercial production, and I really like the kind of mixed shift into CNI that we've seen throughout the year. And so demand remains really positive. For reference, we expected this year about $480 million in payoffs. Through three quarters, we've seen about $460 million in payoffs. The vast majority of that, about 40%, is via sales of primarily multifamily projects, which says that there's a high demand for the high-quality stuff that our folks are producing.

And for the remainder of the year, there's probably about $150 million to $180 million of expected, forecasted, payoffs and whether that materializes in the fourth quarter or materializes kind of or pushes into the first quarter is one of the main questions weighing on that loan growth for the forward guidance. So did I miss anything in your question there?

Timothy DeLacey

No, no, no, that was very helpful, Tyler. I appreciate that. And maybe, Kathryn, just flipping over to the margin, we appreciate the guidance for 2027. With the rate increases that you guys are assuming for next year, just curious about how you're thinking about what we should expect for betas on the deposit side. That should be factored into the 2027 guide.

Kathryn Bailey

Yes, non-interest or non-maturity beta is inclusive of non-interest bearing is about 30%.

Timothy DeLacey

Okay, appreciate that. And then maybe just finishing up, you know, just Tyler, maybe one on credit, you know, outside of the few relationships you highlight in the presentations, you know, are you seeing any meaningful changes in credit trends across the broader commercial portfolio or, you know, any particular areas you're keeping your eye on more closely with the recent move in rates?

Tyler Wilcox

No, not so far. Thankfully, commercial credit remains very strong. Last quarter, we were talking about the slight increase in criticize. That's come down. Now we see the slight increase in classified. As we guided, we expect those to pay off and exit the bank with minimal loss. So the core commercial credit remains incredibly strong. The significant reduction in the small ticket leasing is also, you know, extremely positive. I would say the one area where we've seen a slight increase in delinquency on the indirect portfolio, as I think you mentioned, I think there's some pressure on consumers in that area, which is also weighing on the production with interest rates and fuel prices increasing.

So that is an area where we're watching, but we continue to, you know, generate, um, you know, that, uh, production that, you know, near 750 credit scores consistent with our past practices. So very cautiously optimistic on credit overall, and particularly in the commercial space.

Timothy DeLacey

Okay. Well, that's terrific, Tyler. Guys, I'll step back. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Nathan Reyes with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Adam Kroll

Hi, good morning. This is Adam Kroll on for Nate. Good morning, Tyler and Kathryn. And thanks for taking my questions. Maybe for Tyler to start, I know the loan growth guide excludes capital, but they've historically been a pretty high growth franchise. So I guess I'd be curious, you know, is there any transition period after the deal closes, where maybe growth is a little softer, or just any color there.

Tyler Wilcox

Thanks. I would say as the capital, one of the most exciting things to me is the level of mutual engagement that we have with the capital team and the capital leadership particularly. And a big part of that is obviously the continuity for their bankers, their clients, and, you know, their entire organization of our intent to, you know, continue the things that they're doing that made them attractive purchase in the first place. So I don't anticipate any kind of trough because the, you know, the lead-in of the next, you know, four, five, six months of engagement together. That includes our bankers, our credit staff, their leadership, their bankers, and their clients is, you know, mutually committed to continuing what it is they do. So we do expect that, you know, they're historically higher growth rates than ours, are something that we can perpetuate and is part of what makes the deal appealing.

Adam Kroll

Got it. I appreciate the call there. And, Tyler, I think you, on the last call you mentioned, uh, small ticket leasing could potentially begin to grow again in '27. Is that still the case? And, um, is any of that contemplated in the loan growth guide that you gave?

Tyler Wilcox

It is. It's baked in as part of our forecast and we do believe it will grow. Now it's not going to grow at double digits and the growth I think will be more heavily weighted to the second half of the year, you know, growing off of the now $100 million portfolio. But we have the right sales. We have the right leadership and we have the right credit box now that we've tested out to ensure that we grow in a positive way that we think can really impact and let it start punching above its weight again, which is the reason why we are excited about the future of that business.

Adam Kroll

Got it. Maybe one last one from me. Kathryn, I'd be curious to hear how we should think about provisioning in 2027, just given the likely step up in the reserve with the capital deal, and just maybe longer term where you see the reserve kind of settling out.

Kathryn Bailey

Yes, I mean, I think, to your point, I think the last couple quarters have been pretty nice from a provision perspective. I expect we get elevated from here. I think the coverage ratio, which is how I call it, the allowance to total loans, right now we're at 1.11%. I think we'll stay in that range, go up to maybe 1.2% over time with capital coming on board. That's where I would see us progress. Again, Citizens won't have any material impact to that ratio, but capital when it comes on board will help stabilize that.

Adam Kroll

Got it. Thanks for taking my questions.

Tyler Wilcox

No problem.

Kathryn Bailey

Thanks.

Adam Kroll

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Brendan Nosal with Hovde. Please go ahead.

Brendan Nosal

Hey, good morning folks. Thanks for taking the questions.

Kathryn Bailey

Hey, no problem, Brendan.

Brendan Nosal

Maybe starting off here, just kind of on prepping the balance sheet for year end, are there any other security sales that need to take place to stay under $10 billion? And I think you initially were contemplating like $300 million.

Kathryn Bailey

Well, as we articulated with the Citizens acquisition closing here later this month, we will sell a majority of their portfolio at close or very near to close. As it relates to any more of our portfolio that we will sell, that will just be dependent on how we transition through the remainder of the year where we are from an asset size. We might take another $2 million to $3 million loss in the fourth quarter, but we'll just continue to evaluate the market and evaluate our asset size as we proceed through the remainder of the fourth quarter.

Brendan Nosal

Yes, okay. That's perfect. Then maybe turning to the margin, can you just narrow down kind of the NIM that you're expecting to see next quarter? There's a lot of moving pieces with kind of movement in both your and Citizens' securities books and then their impact on both the core margin and, you know, fair value market creation.

Kathryn Bailey

Yes, so I think in the next quarter we could see, you know, I'm going to project somewhere in the 8 to 10 basis point lift with the addition of Citizens, given the securities restructure we just talked about, their portfolio, and then just the deposit franchise, that it makes that organization very attractive.

Brendan Nosal

Okay. All right. Awesome. Thanks, Kathryn. Moving on, on a kind of related note. Just thinking about your rate positioning, I think back to last quarter, I think you folks said that each 25 basis point hike was six to eight basis points of margin improvement. That reads to me as being fairly asset sensitive, but it kind of sounds like now you're more neutral to only slightly asset sensitive. So I'm wondering what changed over the past couple of months.

Kathryn Bailey

Yes, I think that number, I mean it ebbs and flows with each rate increase. It varies a little bit, but I think that 25 basis points now, I think we would quantify be about five basis points of benefit to us. And so I think it's... I mean, we could debate whether that's significantly asset sensitive or slightly, but that's where the new number is.

Brendan Nosal

Yes, yes, okay. That's fair and also helpful. Okay, thanks for taking my questions.

Kathryn Bailey

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Matthew Brees with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Matthew Breese

Good morning.

Tyler Wilcox

Good morning, Matt.

Matthew Breese

You know, just thinking about your loan growth guide for next year, could you give us some idea on what it contemplates for commercial real estate and leasing growth? And if it does include positive growth from those segments, what type of growth are you anticipating?

Tyler Wilcox

Yeah, I think overall commercial growth is about 5% or so as one of the main drivers. The leasing overall growth is probably about 6% to 7%. The kind of drag on the loan growth is going to be, you know, kind of coming from our expectations on the consumer book in a rising rate environment. You know, we're not seeing the refi business on the residential indirect has slowed down a bit. And so that's kind of the outlook on those pieces. I will say the growth as well in commercial is probably a little bit more weighted to the CNI as opposed to the CRE, still still good CRE growth.

Matthew Breese

Okay. So you do anticipate positive commercial real estate growth next year?

Tyler Wilcox

We do. Okay. It is a bit of running on a treadmill, as I noted, because of the heavily weighting to the sales and the payoffs in that space particularly.

Matthew Breese

Yep. And then Kathryn, just thinking about the '27 NIM guide, but including capital, you know, if I go back to the deal deck, I think it suggested a 5% NIM or higher. Could you talk about that in the context of the updated '27 NIM guide on the standalone and whether or not that 5% still holds and what would put you at the upper versus the lower end?

Kathryn Bailey

Well, I think with it not being in, capital not closing until probably, let's say, early in the second quarter or end of the first quarter, we won't have the benefit of that in the first quarter. So the full year guide with that, with capital in next year, I don't think we would get to the 5%. I think once they are in our numbers on a quarterly basis, I think we will approach five, be at five or slightly around the 5% rate that we previously quoted. Full year, I don't think we will get to five in 2027. Correct.

Matthew Breese

Right, but you'll be in and around 5% with them and beyond. Fair enough. Okay. I hate to pick pile on the $10 billion question, but you do have some excess cash at the end of the quarter as well. I'm curious how you see kind of the cash and securities components playing out as you pull the levers and stay below $10 billion by year-end.

Kathryn Bailey

Yes, I think you will see our cash position decrease over time. I think some of that is just on balance sheet liquidity as we approach the end of the quarter, given the securities portfolio is was smaller. So I think you'll see it diminish, especially as we kind of manage through year end.

Matthew Breese

Okay. That's all I had. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Kathryn Bailey

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Emily Lee with KBW. Please go ahead.

Unknown Speaker

Hey everyone, this is Emily stepping in for Tim Switzer. Thanks for taking my question.

Kathryn Bailey

Sure, morning.

Unknown Speaker

Just to go back to the NIM, I was just wondering what was the exit margin in Q3 and how are deposit rates looking at the end of the quarter too?

Kathryn Bailey

The exit margin on the quarter was a little higher than where we reported for the full quarter. An accretion was a similar impact for the month of September as it was for the quarter. A slight benefit, call it five to eight basis points as we exited from where we reported for the full quarter. As it relates to deposits, I think we're starting to see some more competition in the market for deposits and I think we'll continue to see that as this rate outlook plays out and as we start to see rates potentially move upward. And so we've been slowly following that trend and we'll continue to actively manage it as we have been in the past. And that will continue to likely come through our retail CD pricing product.

Unknown Speaker

Understood. Very helpful. And then what does guidance imply for expenses of capital once all the cost saves are achieved? So basically the run rate for 4Q'27.

Kathryn Bailey

So, the full cost saves for capital will not be realized in 2027. They won't be fully realized until 2028.

Unknown Speaker

Okay. Okay, thank you. That's all.

Tyler Wilcox

Okay.

Kathryn Bailey

Thank you.

Tyler Wilcox

Thank you.

Operator

Again, if you have a question, please press star then 1. The next question is a follow-up from Brendan Nosal with Hovde. Please go ahead.

Brendan Nosal

Hey, one more for me on kind of expenses. I was trying to bridge the gap from this quarter's $73 million in core expenses to the the first quarter number, you know, at the higher end of your $80 million to $82 million range. And I'm asking because it looks like Citizens is running like $4.5 million on costs. So, you know, 73 and $4.5 million gets you to like $77.5 million. So, kind of where does that other, you know, several million dollars kind of come from in the updated expense outlook for both 4Q'26 and then 1Q'27?

Kathryn Bailey

A couple things. I think Q3 was a little lighter than we anticipated. I think some of that was just the timing that we'll see move into the fourth quarter. Again, therefore, starting at the 73, I think you're starting off a little light, $1 million, call it, for a round number. I think then you have the annual increase in predominantly our largest expense item as it relates to salaries and benefits. I think we are seeing a meaningful increase in benefit cost expectations for '27 over '26. I'd say those are the big factors that are probably influencing that number higher than where you just quoted, Brendan. Thank you.

Brendan Nosal

Yep, okay, that's helpful, Kathryn.

Kathryn Bailey

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is a follow-up from Nathan Race with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Adam Kroll

I'm going to go to the fourth quarter. It looks like it takes a slight step down at the midpoint of $29 million, even with the contribution from Citizens. So I guess I'd be curious, is that just from lower lease income or any color on the primary drivers there?

Kathryn Bailey

I think you had, I think it's lease income. As we've quoted over time, that's a little bit of a volatile, that creates volatility in the fee income when it relates to lease income as we can have some end-of-term transactions that result in some gains that are reflected in that number on a quarterly basis. And I think you see that to the tune of $1 million, $1.5 million in the third quarter. So I think that run rate was a little little elevated versus the trend in Q3. And that's the biggest variance, I would say.

Adam Kroll

Thanks, Kathryn.

Kathryn Bailey

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions. Sir, do you have any closing remarks?

Tyler Wilcox

Yes, I want to thank everyone for joining our call this morning. Please remember that our earnings release and a webcast of this call, including our earnings conference call presentation, will be archived at peoplesbankcorp.com under the investor relations section. Thank you for your time and have a great day.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.