Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q2 2026 của Zegna: EBIT H1 tăng, định hướng xoay chuyển thương hiệu

Thông tin trọng tâm

• EBIT điều chỉnh trong nửa đầu năm 2026 tăng lên mức hơn 74 triệu EUR một chút từ mức 69 triệu EUR, nâng biên lợi nhuận lên 7,5%.
• Lợi nhuận gộp đạt 668 triệu EUR, tương đương 67,6% doanh thu. Tỷ trọng bán hàng trực tiếp tới người tiêu dùng (DTC) cao hơn đã hỗ trợ khả năng sinh lời, trong khi biến động tỷ giá hối đoái làm giảm 3 điểm phần trăm tăng trưởng doanh thu.
• Mảng Zegna tạo ra 107 triệu EUR EBIT điều chỉnh với biên lợi nhuận 14,8%, tăng 50 điểm cơ bản so với cùng kỳ năm trước. Ban quản lý dự kiến biên lợi nhuận cả năm sẽ đạt khoảng 15%.
• Thom Browne ghi nhận khoản lỗ EBIT điều chỉnh 8 triệu EUR, so với khoản lợi nhuận 4 triệu EUR của cùng kỳ năm trước. Ban quản lý dự kiến EBIT điều chỉnh sẽ dương trong nửa cuối năm và kết quả cả năm tiệm cận mức hòa vốn.
• Tom Ford Fashion đã giảm khoản lỗ EBIT điều chỉnh xuống 12 triệu EUR từ mức 19 triệu EUR. Ban quản lý dự kiến phân khúc này sẽ có lời trong nửa cuối năm và mức lỗ cả năm chỉ ở khoảng vài triệu EUR.
• Dòng tiền tự do cải thiện lên 19 triệu EUR so với dòng tiền ra 23 triệu EUR trước đó, trong khi tiền mặt ròng tăng lên 60 triệu EUR vào ngày 30 tháng 6 từ mức 52 triệu EUR vào cuối năm 2025.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Kênh DTC chiếm 86% doanh thu thương hiệu của tập đoàn, tăng từ mức 82% của cùng kỳ năm trước. Sự dịch chuyển cơ cấu này đã hỗ trợ biên lợi nhuận gộp vì ban quản lý cho biết biên lợi nhuận B2C cao hơn biên lợi nhuận bán buôn.

Mảng Zegna hưởng lợi từ đòn bẩy hoạt động mạnh mẽ hơn, doanh thu trên mỗi mét vuông cao hơn và tỷ lệ bán hết hàng (sell-through) cải thiện. Ban quản lý cho biết kênh DTC của Zegna giữ vững mức tăng trưởng hai chữ số tích cực trong tháng 7 và tháng 8 trên khắp các khu vực và quốc tịch khách hàng. Nhu cầu tiêu dùng tại Bắc Mỹ cũng duy trì tốc độ tăng trưởng hai chữ số vững chắc.

Tại khu vực Đại Trung Hoa, ban quản lý đề cập đến sự biến động của thị trường nhưng khẳng định Zegna vẫn duy trì kết quả tốt và gia tăng thị phần. Tăng trưởng được thúc đẩy bởi các danh mục sản phẩm bao gồm giày Triple Stitch, các mẫu giày khác, đồ dệt kim, quần năm túi, kính mắt và nước hoa.

Thom Browne tiếp tục trong giai đoạn chuyển đổi nhiều năm từ mô hình lấy bán buôn làm chủ đạo sang cấu trúc ưu tiên bán lẻ. Kết quả kinh doanh quý 3 của thương hiệu này giảm tốc rõ rệt sau những lợi ích trước đó từ việc mở cửa hàng và sự hợp tác với ASICS. Ban quản lý đang tái cơ cấu đội ngũ lãnh đạo cấp cao và tập trung cải thiện công tác quản lý hàng hóa, cơ cấu sản phẩm, lập kế hoạch ngân sách mua hàng (open-to-buy), tiếp thị và thực thi bán lẻ.

Tom Ford Fashion tiếp tục duy trì đà phát triển tích cực. Các cơ hội trong ngắn hạn bao gồm trang phục, đồ mặc hàng ngày cho nữ, may đo theo yêu cầu và áo khoác ngoài bằng da. Ban quản lý xác định túi xách nữ là cơ hội trong trung hạn, đồng thời thừa nhận rằng nền tảng này vẫn đang trong quá trình phát triển.

Chi phí vốn bao gồm cơ sở sản xuất giày mới tại Parma, dự kiến sẽ bắt đầu đi vào hoạt động vào cuối năm 2026. Tom Ford cũng lên kế hoạch mở bốn cửa hàng quan trọng cho đến tháng 1, bao gồm Costa Mesa, San Diego, Ala Moana và một cửa hàng flagship tại Paris với khái niệm cửa hàng mới.

Dự báo từ Ban quản lý

• Ban quản lý dự kiến biên lợi nhuận EBIT điều chỉnh cả năm 2026 của mảng Zegna sẽ đạt khoảng 15%. Trong dài hạn, công ty thấy có dư địa hướng tới khoảng 15% đến 20%, đồng thời nhấn mạnh đây không phải là mục tiêu trong vòng 1 đến 3 năm.
• Thom Browne dự kiến sẽ đạt mức EBIT điều chỉnh dương trở lại trong nửa cuối năm 2026, giúp kết quả cả năm tiệm cận mức hòa vốn. Áp lực tỷ giá giảm bớt, quản lý ngân sách mua hàng chặt chẽ hơn và kiểm soát chi phí được kỳ vọng sẽ hỗ trợ sự cải thiện này.
• Tom Ford Fashion dự kiến sẽ ghi nhận EBIT điều chỉnh dương trong nửa cuối năm và mức lỗ EBIT điều chỉnh cả năm chỉ ở mức vài triệu EUR.
• Thuế suất thực tế cả năm dự kiến sẽ bình thường hóa về khoảng 28% đến 30%, thấp hơn mức 39% của nửa đầu năm.
• Ban quản lý dự kiến lợi nhuận sau thuế năm 2026 sẽ ở mức tương đương năm 2025 dù không còn khoản lợi ích phi tiền tệ và không chịu thuế trị giá 37 triệu EUR từ việc đánh giá lại nợ phải trả quyền chọn bán của Thom Browne như năm ngoái.
• Kênh bán buôn không được kỳ vọng sẽ là động lực tăng trưởng. Ban quản lý dự báo mức giảm ở mức hai chữ số thấp đối với mảng bán buôn của Zegna, mảng bán buôn của Tom Ford nhìn chung ổn định và bán buôn của Thom Browne giảm tiếp, mặc dù mức thu hẹp tuyệt đối sẽ nhỏ hơn đáng kể so với năm 2025.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

Tỷ giá hối đoái tiếp tục là yếu tố bất lợi đáng kể. Biến động tiền tệ đã làm giảm 3 điểm phần trăm tăng trưởng doanh thu của tập đoàn trong nửa đầu năm, trong khi ảnh hưởng đối với Thom Browne là khoảng 5 điểm phần trăm do thị trường Hàn Quốc và Nhật Bản.

Quá trình chuyển đổi của Thom Browne đang kéo dài hơn dự kiến ban đầu. Ban quản lý cho rằng sự chậm trễ này là do điều kiện kinh tế vĩ mô thách thức, việc cải tổ mạng lưới bán buôn cũng như yêu cầu tái thiết lập đội ngũ lãnh đạo cấp cao và năng lực bán lẻ.

Ban quản lý cũng nhấn mạnh sự biến động tại thị trường Trung Quốc. Zegna duy trì được đà tăng trưởng tích cực, nhưng sự suy yếu của thị trường đã ảnh hưởng nặng nề hơn đến Thom Browne trong mùa hè. Công ty đang theo dõi sát sao tâm lý người tiêu dùng cũng như các tác động tiềm tàng từ chính sách thuế mới và đầu tư ra nước ngoài.

Tháng 9 vẫn là tháng quan trọng đối với tình hình kinh doanh quý 3 tại thời điểm diễn ra cuộc họp, điều này có nghĩa là các nhận định của ban quản lý trong tháng 7 và tháng 8 mới chỉ mang tính sơ bộ.

Điểm nhấn phần Q&A với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban quản lý cho biết tăng trưởng hiện tại của Zegna được thúc đẩy bởi cả khách hàng hiện hữu và khách hàng mới, thay vì chỉ dựa vào những khách hàng chi tiêu cao nhất. Số lượng khách hàng và sản lượng bán ra đều tăng trong nửa đầu năm, với các danh mục sản phẩm chủ lực đóng góp vào nhu cầu rộng lớn hơn.

Về Thom Browne, ban quản lý cho biết bộ máy trước đây của thương hiệu được thiết kế cho mô hình định hướng bán buôn. Quá trình chuyển đổi đòi hỏi những thay đổi sâu rộng về nhân sự lãnh đạo và các năng lực mới trong bán lẻ, quản lý hàng hóa và lập kế hoạch tồn kho. Các bộ sưu tập và chiến dịch tiếp thị trong tương lai được hướng tới việc mở rộng tập khách hàng vượt ra khỏi phân khúc cốt lõi ban đầu.

Đối với Tom Ford, ban quản lý xác định đồ mặc hàng ngày cho nữ, may đo theo yêu cầu và áo khoác ngoài bằng da là những cơ hội trước mắt. Việc phát triển mảng kinh doanh túi xách nữ mạnh mẽ hơn vẫn là mục tiêu trung hạn.

Ban quản lý cho biết nhu cầu từ khách du lịch tại Châu Âu giảm nhẹ trong tháng 7 nhưng đã cải thiện vào tháng 8. Công ty cũng lưu ý rằng chi tiêu của khách du lịch ít quan trọng đối với tập đoàn hơn so với một số công ty xa xỉ khác.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good afternoon, good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the Ermenegildo Zegna Group First Half 2026 Financial Results Call. Please note that today's material and presentation are available under the zegnagroup.com website. Before we begin, we need to point out that the team will make certain forward-looking statements during the call. The group actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Also, these statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those described in our SEC filings. Please refer to the forward-looking statements' cautionary statements included in Page 2 of today's presentation.

I'll now hand over to Paola Durante, Chief of External Relations and Sustainability.

Paola Durante

Thank you. Thank you, operator, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for being here today with our conference call on first half 2026 results. I will briefly comment on our financial results, which highlights you can find on Page 3 of the presentation. And then I will leave the floor to Gianluca, Gianluca Tagliabue,our Group CEO, for some final remarks. Of course, before opening to your questions.

On Page 3, we skip commenting on H1 revenues since they've been already fully analyzed during the July call. So let's move to of the presentation to deep dive on the main metrics of our reported profit and loss starting with gross profit. In the first half of 2026, gross profit reached EUR 668 million with a margin on revenues of 67.6%. Gross profit remains supported by a favorable channel mix even that DTC revenues generated 86% of branded group revenues, up from 82% in the first half of last here. And as you know, B2C gross margin is higher than the wholesale one. This positive effect was partially offset by adverse foreign exchange movement. As a reminder, ForEx movement in the first 6 months of this year reduced top line growth by 3 percentage points. Selling, general and administrative. SG&A expenses amounted in the first half of 2026 to EUR 531 million, with an incidence on revenues that has slightly decreased to 53.8%. This has been primarily driven by improved operating leverage and lower impairment cost and it happened despite ongoing investments in the expansion of the DTC distribution network.

Finally, on marketing. Marketing expenses reached EUR 68 million, remaining broadly stable at 6.9% of revenues, reflecting our brand's disciplined approach in supporting the equity through focused and selective investments. Let's then move to Page 5, where we report adjusted EBIT for the group and by segment. As you know, adjusted EBIT is the main metric used by management to analyze business performance at group and segment level. In the first 6 months of 2026, adjusted EBIT landed slightly above EUR 74 million compared to EUR 69 million in the first 6 months of last year with a margin of 7.5%. Looking at the results by segment. The Zegna segment, which includes Zegna brand, the Textile division and the third-party brands generated an adjusted EBIT of EUR 107 million, which corresponded to a margin of 14.8% compared to 14.3% in the first 6 months of last year. The 50 bps increase in margin has been largely driven by operating leverage in the DTC channel benefiting from higher revenues per square meter and improved DTC KPIs, including the sell-through. Adjusted EBIT for Thom Browne segment was negative EUR 8 million compared to EUR 4 million positive in the first 6 months of last year. The decline reflects the adverse impact of foreign exchange movements, which for Thom Browne has been more severe than the group's average. Inventories and bad debt reserve evolution in line with the business trend and the cost related to talent acquisition and other investments to support the brand transition towards a retail first culture.

Moving now to Tom Ford Fashion segment. The segment recorded Tom from fashion recorded EUR 12 million of adjusted EBIT loss compared to a negative EUR 19 million in the first 6 months of last year. This improvement is primarily attributable to revenue growth, which allowed for greater absorption of fixed costs, together with an ongoing cost discipline. Let's move to Page 6. Here, you find summarize our reported income statement for the first half of this year and last year. I will comment here on profit specifically in the first 6 months of 2026, profit reached EUR 28 million compared to EUR 48 million last year which, as you remember, included the positive effect from the remeasurement of the Thom Browne put option liability that remeasurement that did not occur this year. More specifically, the sum of financial income and expenses, foreign external gains and losses in the first half of 2026 moved from a positive EUR 6 million -- sorry, to a negative EUR 23 million from a positive EUR 6 million in the first half of last year. This difference mostly reflects the just mentioned remeasurement of the Thom Browne noncontrolling interest put option liabilities that is, I remind you, denominated in U.S. dollar. The value of the put option was reduced in the first half of last year, also reflecting the sharp dollar depreciation. This generated nonmonetary and nontaxable income for EUR 28 million in the first half of 2025.

As a reminder, in fiscal year 2025, the total positive impact from the Thom Browne put option was EUR 37 million. So only an additional EUR 9 million income was recognized in the second part of '25. Commenting now on income taxes. First half 2026 income taxes resulted in a higher effective tax rate equal to 39% versus 30% in the first 6 months of last year mainly due to the already mentioned tax effect on nontaxable income. Tax rate for the group is normally higher in the first part of the year. Therefore, also in this year, also in 2026, we expect the tax rate in the second part -- in the second half to be lower than what we reported in the first 6 months. As already said in the past, commenting our results, a normal tax rate for the group is around 28%, 30%. Moving now quickly to Page 7, CapEx and trade working capital. CapEx in the first 6 months reached EUR 64 million. The EUR 10 million increase compared to last year was mainly related to higher investments in production, including the new shoe production plant in Parma which should start to operate by the end of the year. Very happy for that. Trade working capital stood at EUR 420 million at the end of June compared to EUR 442 million at the end of June last year. The reduction has been mainly driven by lower receivable as a result of the streamlining of the wholesale business.

Finally, on free cash flow and cash surplus, Page 8 and Page 9. On Page 8, you can see that we generated EUR 19 million of free cash flow this year compared to a EUR 23 million absorption in the first 6 months of last year. This thanks to a stronger cash -- stronger cash generation from operating activities, which, of course, was driven by higher EBIT and also by an improved trade working capital. And finally, on Page 9, our net cash was EUR 60 million at the end of June, increase higher than the EUR 52 million at the end of December 2025. And with this, I finish my brief comments, and I leave the floor to Gianluca.

Gianluca Tagliabue

Thank you, Paola. Before we open the floor to your questions, let me leave you with a few final thoughts brand by brand. In H1, the results once again reflect the excellent work that the Zegna brand team is doing to strengthen the brand. The consistency and discipline behind the clear strategic vision continue to translate into solid top line growth while also supporting the margin expansion. This trend continues to be supported by the brand's ability to both increase its market share among the loyal customers as well as attract new clients, all while remaining highly consistent in its positioning.

Indeed, the very solid momentum has continued through July and August. As you may have noticed, we launched our fall/winter campaign today fully dedicated to Su Misura Make-to-Measure, which is also featured on the cover of this presentation and in several major publications. The campaign is a tribute to our legacy and to the craftsmanship expertise and personalized approach that have distinguished Zegna brand for generations because Zegna Su Misura suit is not just the suit. It's a legacy that will be carried forward across generations. Regarding Tom Ford fashion, this fall, we unveiled a powerful marketing campaign that, in my view, effectively conveys the brand's evolution and its increasingly sophisticated expression of elegance and seduction. Marketing is a strategic area where we are prepared to selectively deploy additional resources to further strengthen brand awareness and high. In the past weeks, Tom Ford Fashion has continued to perform well with healthy momentum as awareness and engagement continue to build.

Now let me focus on Thom Browne brand. As you know, the brand's deep transformation is ongoing as it moves away from a wholesale-driven model into a retail-oriented go-to-market approach and culture. This transition is taking place in several phases. We are completing the reduction and upgrading of the wholesale network. And to be honest, the process has been taking longer than initially anticipated. -- partially due to a challenging macroeconomic environment. In 2025, we also began evolving the brand's leadership team. Sam Lobban, Thom Browne's new CEO, is building the organization with a stronger focus on DTC and a more customer-centric culture. As part of this effort, he has been reshaping the senior leadership team. We are confident that Sam, together with Tom, of course, are bringing the brand towards the right direction. Transformations of this nature require time and may temporarily weigh on results. The operating performance in H1 this year reflects both the decisions we have taken and the actions we continue to implement to strengthen the brand's long-term foundations.

The success of ASIC collaboration confirmed that the Thom Browne brand continues to resonate with consumers. However, while brand desirability is essential, it is not enough on its own. We are working with Sam across all the key levers of the business, including collection merchandising, open-to-buy planning and assortment, marketing, go-to-market execution, in order to ensure that both existing and prospective customers are engaged can find the right product offering and continue to build a relationship with the brand over time. The more recent marketing campaign of Thom Browne, which went out in the last few days, I believe, offer evidence of the brand intention to widen its customer base. Fashion operates on long lead times, building a stronger brand and a more sustainable growth platform requires patients, disciplined execution and consistency. As we did a few years ago with the one brand strategy of the Zegna brand, our focus for Thom Browne is exactly this, building a stronger brand with foundations able to deliver sustainable and profitable growth for the long term.

Looking ahead, we expect Thom Browne ground H2 26 EBIT to return positive in the semester, bringing full year EBIT close to breakeven. In H2, ForEx, we'll have less negative impact. Our comparison base will become less demanding and we have implemented actions to support gross profit and to control costs. Let me conclude now with a comment on our Parma factory, which is a strategic project that we launched a couple of years ago. We are now completing this important investment, which is much more than a manufacturing facility. It is a center of excellence, bringing together craftsmanship innovation and operational capabilities in a unique setting surrounded by a wonderful neutral environment. As we have done since the group's foundation, we continue to invest in the Filiera, our distinctive and unique Italian integrated supply chain to support the group development for years to come. We look forward to welcoming you in Parma next year. And with that, let's open the Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question comes from the line of Robert Krankowski with UBS.

Phần hỏi đáp

Robert Krankowski

I have only 2 questions. So my first one is on the Zegna segment margins in the second half comparatives are becoming somehow tougher in the second half of the year, but you mentioned that July and August were still very solid. So should we expect the patterns 2024, '25 when the EBIT margin was better in the second half than in the first half to continue? And the second one, and I appreciate the call about the profitability rather than current trading, you mentioned already that the trends were very solid in July and August. So should we think that there was some level of improvement compared to your commentary from July when there was a bit more volatility and anything to call out related to China because we hear a bit more mixed things, and I think the comparatives are getting a bit tougher.

Paola Durante

Thank you, Robert. Okay. On the first and the second, I'll leave Gianluca to make some comments. So the first 1 is on Zegna segment, EBITA, H2 versus H1 or clear.

Gianluca Tagliabue

Let's talk about the full year. In Zegna segment, we expect the adjusted EBIT margin in the region of the 15%, driven by all the positive trends that we have mentioned -- and if I need to label it in one word, it's about high-quality growth. So that's what we see for the year for the Zegna segment around that mark.

Paola Durante

And for the comment compared to July, of course, that in July, there was only a few weeks of the quarter. Now we have a little bit more weeks still an important month to go, but I'll leave Gianluca, if you want to give a sense of if we are more confident or different from July. This is what Robert maintained its question.

Gianluca Tagliabue

So Paola, I say, of course, the quarter is missing still the important month of September. We just delivered important drops of product for Zegna and also recently for the winter of Thom Browne. So the comments cannot be completed, they are definitely partial. Let me give you some highlights by brand on DTC, of course. Overall, we continue to see a substantial solid double-digit positive trend for Zegna DTC with good performance across all regions and across all nationalities and we continue to support with confidence the business.

Tom Ford is seeing a good trend across markets. And Thom Browne has seen a visible deceleration in Q3, partially expected, I mean, being Q1 and Q2 positively impacted by the new store openings and by the ASIC launch, which was across March and April, the big numbers. As I said before, we are in a transition phase on Thom Browne. Sam with Thom are building the new team. We are carefully assessing the store network, and we are investing on all the retail functions, departments activities. And this, as I said before, is taking some time, but we are really confident that under some leadership, we are moving in the right direction.

You asked the third question was about GCR, we are reading, as I think you are reading some question marks and volatility on the market. We see that volatility we don't comment for the other brands, of course. But it's important to have in China like everywhere, very consistent brand strategy. And this is what we are doing with the Zegna brand. And in China, I think we have found a unique position that we believe is allowing us to get market share. It is a journey. Things needs to be done, but we are confident that we have undertaken the right steps in China, and we are seeing some good momentum in terms of market share gain on the Zegna brand, which is continuing to do well also in July and August. In any case, the softness that we are seeing reported in many personally reports and many news is, in effect, it's the factor that is probably impacting the most Thom Browne performance in the market over the summer. So I would bifurcate China in these 2 ways. Zegna performing well and an impact on the Thom Browne performance.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adrien Duverger with Goldman Sachs.

Adrien Duverger

I will have 2, if possible. The first one is on the wholesale channel. Could you please comment on the performance of the channel and the trends you're seeing for the second half of 2026? More specifically, what are you seeing with the order book and if there are any timing issues to be aware of? My second question is on profitability. With the solid set of numbers today, is there anything that we should be aware of in terms of phasing of costs or investments for the second half? Also, if you can please comment on -- your thoughts about the consensus. Do you continue to expect margin at the group level to be broadly stable year-on-year? And are you -- given these numbers, are you more confident on the full year '27 EBIT guidance?

Paola Durante

Adrien, thank you so much. So on wholesale?

Gianluca Tagliabue

Wholesale, I think, Adrien, we commented in July, and I go back to those comments, probably with some slight adjustments, but we expect wholesale not to be a driver of growth to continue to contract. We expect brand by brand at Zegna in the low double digit due to icon protection because we are very selective on distributing through third parties, our recognizable items and great attention improving the network of distribution. Tom Ford, probably, we said was slightly negative. I think we could be between slightly negative and stable -- probably stable leveraging on what you were asking about order book, probably we could be in the stable area.

And Tom around negative. As I said, we are cleaning the environment. At this point, since the numbers are not as big in absolute term, I think it's important to talk about absolute because more than percentage. So if I -- if you remember, in 2024, Thom Browne had EUR 129 million, EUR 130 million of wholesale business last year went to EUR 77 milion. So a decline roughly of EUR 50 million. We expect this year the decline in absolute terms to be in order of magnitude, much lower, so kind of a -- of the absolute decline of last year. So I think at this point, the percentage of the business to sale is less impacting the overall picture, but we still see a decline which, in absolute terms, will be probably 50% of the absolute decline of last year.

Paola Durante

In terms of profitability, Adrien is asking if we have some phase in different phasing and about 2026 consensus.

Gianluca Tagliabue

As you remember in the call at the end of July, we said that we felt comfortable. We believe that the consensus at that time was reasonable and that time was around EUR 190 million

Paola Durante

It adjusted.

Gianluca Tagliabue

Adjusted EBIT. Now the consensus moved to slightly up to EUR 295 million adjusted EBIT. And we still confirm it is reasonable, even if, of course, a bit more challenging. There was a grade of EUR 5 million, but we still believe that, that target is reasonable. And the same thing I would say on the guidance of 2027, so that we confirm in the same dimensions that we have said over and over in the last calls.

Adrien Duverger

Can I just confirm what '27, you said you were looking for an EBIT at the lower end of the range. Is that still the case?

Gianluca Tagliabue

Correct. It's correct. That's correct.

Paola Durante

It's between 250, EUR 2.2 billion and EUR 250 million in the lower range of the guidance, yes. Thank you, Adrien. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Charchafji with BNP Paribas.

Anthony Charchafji

It's Antonio at BNP. The first one would be on Thom Browne profitability, so being back to profitability in H2 to be back even -- can you please help us understand the moving part at Thom Browne brand in terms of margin. If you can help us quantify the impact at the gross margin level, specifically -- and also interested to know if there is a risk of inventory write-down that could impact the gross margin for Thom Browne.

My second question would be on marketing. I mean out of the out of the EUR 68 million spent in H1. Just curious to know the percentage that was allocated to the Zegna brand specifically? That would be my second question. And yes, maybe my last question is below the lines below EBIT. So it's a bit for housekeeping. If you can help us understand the expectation on the financial expense and FX impact below the EBIT. So if you can give any indication on a full year basis so we can realign correctly.

Paola Durante

Thank you Anthony. Yes, absolutely. So on the Thom Browne and just to help enter understanding the second part and the moving parts of the second part of the year, Thom Browne profitability.

Gianluca Tagliabue

So the -- Anthony, so we said that we expect on ground adjusted EBIT to be close to the breakeven. I tell you which are the moving parts, and they are spread across gross margin and OpEx. There are 3 moving parts. So the lower currency headwind, if you remember, the headwind on Thom Browne was 5 percentage points compared to almost 3 percentage points at group level. So especially being particularly exposed to Korea and Japan in proportion they suffered from that headwind, which will be lower in the second half of the year for both for external, as well as internal factors like price adjustments.

The second part, it's a better and more focus open to buy management and goes into the topic of inventory management. So we are optimizing the open to buy, we have started optimizing open to my starting from fall/winter '26 onwards. So we have -- we will have a benefit from that part in terms of also inventory burden. And then there is the tight cost control, which is happening and will continue through the second half. So those are the elements. Of course, what we have said before, building the team is the fact that at a certain point gets to an inflection point. I think it will be more next year, but we start having a deceleration of cost increase. So these are the moving parts on Thom Browne that let us believe about a second part, which is accretive to the bottom line.

Paola Durante

In terms of marketing, how much is related to Zegna, you can assume that more than 2/3 is around 70%, 75% is Zegna segment related. And in terms of the lines below the EBIT to help modeling EBITDA full year in terms of net profit.

Gianluca Tagliabue

So as for as we have seen for the EBIT also for net profit, we normally generate more profit in the second half than in the first half. In full year, '26 profit after tax will not be too far from last year despite the fact that in 2025, we have recognized, as Paola was mentioning, financial income and FX gains related to the pooled option remeasurement that will not occur this year as such. So to give you a sense of direction should not be too far despite of this material last year financial income and FX gain that overall in the full year was a positive impact in the range of EUR 37 million. Nonmonetary and nontax ...

Paola Durante

And nontaxable. And as I said, that during this petro which 37-sorry, EUR 37 million, EUR 28 million occurred in the first part of the year. So the first part one that we reported had a higher base of comparison. And the second point is that the tax rate, as we said, that as normal in the second part of the year for the group is lower. So it will...

Gianluca Tagliabue

And also one point as a positive -- less demand in base of comparison. If you remember, last year at the end of the year, we had also the impact that was recorded of the Saks group credit write-downs, which, of course, this year, we are not expecting.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Oliver Chen with TD Cowen.

Oliver Chen

As you think about Americas, what's happening there in terms of the key brands and is the wealth effect being a positive driver. And your comments on China are also very encouraging. Do you expect a lot of those trends to stick in terms of the consumer sentiment is somewhat volatile in China, but the Zegna brand has executed clearly really well. And second question on Thom Browne. The wholesale network taking longer. Why is that true? Why is that happening? And what have been your learnings in terms of that happening? I know the brand continues to evolve and has a special artistic place in the fashion universe as well.

Paola Durante

Thank you, Oliver, as always very interesting. The first one is on U.S. and Ciara, I understood mainly really focused on Zegna brand and the second one on Thom Browne. Gianluca?

Gianluca Tagliabue

I don't enter too much in the breakdown by nationality because I think we'll do it at the end of Q3, but I give you a sense that we are not seeing a significant difference in trends by nationality by markets. We keep on seeing positive performance with in America, of course, driven by the Zegna solid positioning but also on for this is doing well. And overall, with the North American consumers, we are -- we keep on seeing also in July and August, a very solid double-digit growth. So no material difference in the trajectory on America.

On China, I think, as I said before, there is in the marketplace, volatility, probably Zegna is moving, as I said, at a different pace because it's -- it's gaining market share. And I think that the recipe there is really the focus. I think Angelo and [indiscernible], and the team overall have picked their battles and the battles were and are the untapped opportunities of Zegna brand, which was underrepresented in triple stretch, underrepresented in make-to-measure, underrepresented in some other categories. And I think that part is playing a game and broadening the picture, I think that what encourages us is that overall America, GCR, Europe Zegna brand is seeing a growth of number of consumers and is seeing a growth in volumes in the first half of this year because, of course, we are losing some volume in some categories. But the categories that are key for us, whether it's shoes and not only triples, but also 232 and the other models, knitwear, 5-pocket pants, those are categories that are solidly growing, eyewear, fragrances. So this, we are seeing, of course, all our strategy is top of the pyramid, but this is creating a very positive snowball effect in the lower tier of clients and the number of clients is growing. So it's solid. It's not picking the top of the pyramid and squeezing the level. So I want to make it sure that it's clear.

Paola Durante

On Thom Browne, why it's taking longer? That was the question?

Gianluca Tagliabue

On Thom Browne, it's taking longer because I think the fact that we are reshaping entirely the senior leader team, it's a point that probably the team was very well versed in wholesale driven model and the team like teenagers at a certain point, you need to change habits, patterns. I think we probably needed to change the team almost entirely, almost entirely, and infuse capabilities on the retail side. We are working, as I said before, on open-to-buy assortment, and that's another direction. We are also with Sam changing, but it's early to say some components of our future assortments.

So definitely, it's taking some time. I think I'm not putting any excuse, I think it took some time also to make the turnaround of Zegna. We probably were optimistic in the change of the of the revamp and relaunch of Thom Browne , but I reaffirm that we are still positive, and we believe that Sam is making the right changes and the right intervention in collection merchandising, in marketing. And the goal is overall to widen the base above and beyond the lowers and the niche of the brand. And we believe that we have the elements, investing on the preppy-americana codes. Creating further options for new clients to come into the brand, and this will be probably in the next collections more visible, not yet out there. So I just tease that we are working on both marketing and collection in order to welcome more people into the brand. The brand as ASIC showed has appeal, we need just to create more options for people to come in.

Oliver Chen

And one follow-up. Tom Ford clearly has really strong awareness. As you think about product and Tom Ford, the women's ready to wear the day, where the lead there out or where and made to measure. What should we focus on in terms of where you are with the path ahead and the most -- the biggest opportunities within product and Tom Ford.

Gianluca Tagliabue

Well, there is short-term opportunities long -- midterm opportunities. I'm not saying long term, midterm. In the short-term opportunity, we still have a lot low-hanging fruit is more in the apparel. I think we are creating more opportunities for higher frequency of use in women, in daywear. We are using the Filiera capabilities to have higher, and that's growing quite nicely the make to measure in Tom Ford. We launched in the first half of the year, women tailoring that it's a unique offer proposition in the marketplace because if you want to have a women tuxedo or a women make-to-measure, Tom Ford is the best option in the marketplace.

We launched the leather outer, which is an iconic offering for Tom Ford also on make the measure, amplifying colors and materials. So I think these are the low-hanging fruits. of course, the midterm goal and the untapped opportunity is getting a solid platform on women bags. The team is working on that. We are not yet there, and we are aware. And -- but this is the opportunity we see up there and where we need to keep on working.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Gao with CLSA.

Chris Gao

I have 3, if I may. So my first question is a quick 1 regarding tourist demand. So just wondering how to tourism among your key nationalities look like heading into July and August. Any comments on that? And my second question is regarding your Chinese demand guidance. If going back to earlier this year, remember, the guidance was largely flattish this year, but since our GCR performance was already 7% organic in the first half and your comments on GCR trends during the summer is still solid. So would you consider lifting the guidance for your Chinese demand for the FY '26? And how should we also look into the FY '27?

My last question is regarding your space contribution by brand in '26 and '27. So since we're approaching the end of 2026, do you have any changes of your space contribution plans and also, you mentioned some like 10 store closures of Zegna stores in China over time. So what would be the progress by the end of '26 if we may ask?

Paola Durante

Chris, I hope we get all your questions because there were many. And so in terms of nationalities, I would say, Gianluca has commented on the current trend, and I will leave the comments to what he said also in terms of nationality. And particularly for Zegna, he mentioned that.

Chris Gao

We are focused on the current demand. Focus on touristic model.

Paola Durante

Yes. I would say -- I wouldn't really add much more, please. But one thing that -- I mean, you might remember is right. In July, we commented that there was a little bit of softness in Europe due to tourists, which was probably related to World Cup, and it was actually the case because August saw an improvement, but I wouldn't go much more in details. In any case, you know that for us, tourist are, yes, important, but less than for others. In any case, I would stop on this comment for Tourist.

While on the Chinese demand, you -- I think you said you asked if we change our guidance for year-end because it was a flattish -- of course.

Gianluca Tagliabue

Well, Chris, in the first half, we finished the first half at plus organic plus 6%, plus 6.8% organic wise. We keep on having on Zegna, as I said before, a good trajectory on Thom Browne, a soft trajectory. Overall, as I said before, we don't see a big change in pattern. So we keep on having a positive performance on I would say, positive performance. So probably the flattish care result, very cautious, cautious outlook. Although, of course, we are very attempt in monitoring the evolution also from a consumer mood about the new taxes and offshore investments. So that's the lingering question mark whether in the coming months, it may have an impact. But so far, you will stay in the positive territory.

Paola Durante

Absolutely.

Gianluca Tagliabue

Space, we said that Zegna, as you mentioned, we closed -- we are going to close, and that's not only this year, but we will take more because we are not closing just for anticipating the closure by the lease, we are expecting the lease expire. So it will be little by little the reduction of some stores in China. Overall, the picture of space will be next year more affecting Tom Ford than any other brand.

Paola Durante

In the positive sense.

Gianluca Tagliabue

On the positive sense. On Zegna and Thom Browne will not be material. We have on Tom Ford instead 4 openings from now through January, which are material. I recall them are 3 in U.S., which is the house of the brand. It's Costa Mesa, which is a beautiful location in the mall. in October, we have San Diego, which will be, again, around October and Ala Morali, again, same, more or less September, October. And then finally, we will have in January, end of January, the flagship in Paris, which will represent the new house of the brand because it will carry a new store concept, the new store concept.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jean Danjou with ODDO BHF.

Jean Danjou

I have 2 questions. The first one is, could you be a bit more precise on the tax rate full year 2026 and then the second 1 is on the medium-term margin for the Zegna segment. You seem to be on the verge to be at 15% in 2026. Obviously, the brand has a lot of momentum. It's evolving positively on the leverage side. How much more can you get on the margin on the Zegna segment. Would it be reasonable to look at the margin of Brunello Cucinelli to get a sense of where you could go on the Zegna segment medium term.

Paola Durante

Thank you, Jean. On tax rate, as I commented, Tax rate -- normal tax rate is in the region for our group in the region of 30%, 28%, 30%, we don't expect this year to be different from that at year-end, of course. So and in terms of Zegna -- but the new segment, I'll leave it to Gianluca.

Gianluca Tagliabue

We -- as we have said many times, we want to reach 15%. Of course, now we need to look behind the 15% goal. And of course, the sweet spot for us is to be between the 15 and 20. Of course, you said you mentioned Brunello, which is in that range. We do more or less, it's the same mechanics, the same markup and the same size curve, which means obsolescence of inventory. And so I think that is the number we need to move towards the 20%. That is our -- that is our journey, the next journey, which will take time. It's not 1 year, 2 years, 3 years goal, but we clearly have not finished the upgrade of our margin on the Zegna segment.

Paola Durante

And next, maybe last one.

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Maria Meita with Bernstein.

Maria Meita

I have 2. First, a clarification on Zegna. Do you have any store openings planned for the second half of the year? And then second on Tom Ford, given the strong progression to date, but also your ongoing investments, you mentioned marketing. When do you expect the brand to break even?

Paola Durante

Thank you, Maria. I'll leave to Gianluca at the store opening for the second part of the year for Zegna.

Gianluca Tagliabue

.

We just opened will see reality which -- we did a couple of important openings in China, and this goes back to what was mentioned before by Chris. Of course, we are reducing the size of present creator change in China, but we are reinvesting in fewer, better doors. The example has been in the last couple of months, we opened a second store in Shenzhen Bay in Shenzhen. [indiscernible] we opened a very meaningful, and we are proud of the store in Harbour City, Hong Kong per Madrid -- we opened Madrid, -- in the remainder of the year, we don't have material openings. We will have other next year, Zegna and others, but we will disclose more in the upcoming calls.

We are definitely, as I said before, important openings on Tom Ford in the next 4, 5 months. Those are the big openings that we have to accomplish. Zegna has done these 3 important openings in the last few months.

Paola Durante

And for Tom Ford when it would be breakeven.

Gianluca Tagliabue

let's start from 2026. We expect the journey of talk forward to regain a more interesting level of P&L in the second half of this year. In the second half of last year, Tom Ford recorded a positive adjusted EBIT. And we believe that this will be the case also in the second half of this year. Therefore, we expect an adjusted EBIT for full year '26. Tom Ford in the region of a few million negative, and that is the outlook for this year. I would pose for the time being on this, and it's one step at a time.

Alice Poggioli

Great. So I think we reached the end.

Paola Durante

One second, we forgot to mention that we are going to open the new [indiscernible] Morris store in the second part of the year.

Gianluca Tagliabue

Yes. The second -- yes, we are opening the [indiscernible] Morris store that new store I.

Paola Durante

It will be a nice store that we open in Morrise in December. And of course, you mentioned San Diego also for Zegna -- sorry, Alice, I interrupted you.

Alice Poggioli

Now I think we reached the end. Let me just remind you that our next release will be on October 22. Our silent period will begin on October 1. Thank you, everyone, for attending today's call. And if you need any further clarification, of course, do not hesitate to contact us. Have a nice rest of the day. Ciao, everyone.

Paola Durante

Ciao to everybody. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.