Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 4 FY2026 của Aviat Networks (AVNW): Tăng trưởng FY2027 được dẫn dắt bởi MDU

Aviat Networks (NASDAQ: AVNW) khép lại năm tài chính 2026 với doanh thu quý tăng và lượng đơn đặt hàng tồn đọng (backlog) cuối năm đạt mức kỷ lục, dù tình trạng thiếu hụt linh kiện và lạm phát đã ảnh hưởng tiêu cực đến biên lợi nhuận gộp. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng tăng trưởng sẽ tăng tốc trong năm tài chính 2027, nhờ cơ hội từ phân khúc chung cư/tập thể (MDU), mạng tư nhân và nhu cầu quốc tế đang cải thiện.

Các điểm chính

• Doanh thu quý 4 năm tài chính 2026 tăng 4,8% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái lên 120,9 triệu USD. Doanh thu cả năm tăng 1,2% lên 439,7 triệu USD, đánh dấu năm tăng trưởng thứ 6 liên tiếp của Aviat.
• Lượng đơn đặt hàng tồn đọng cuối năm đạt 367 triệu USD, tăng 14% so với năm tài chính 2025. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các đơn đặt hàng gần đây và thời điểm tăng tốc chuỗi cung ứng sẽ hỗ trợ kết quả năm tài chính 2027 tập trung nhiều hơn vào nửa cuối năm.
• Aviat đưa ra dự báo doanh thu năm tài chính 2027 đạt từ 455 triệu đến 470 triệu USD và EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt từ 50 triệu đến 55 triệu USD.
• Công ty đã nhận được đơn hàng MDU trị giá từ 25 triệu đến 30 triệu USD từ một khách hàng hiện hữu và dự kiến sẽ ghi nhận toàn bộ doanh thu liên quan trong năm tài chính 2027, trong đó giai đoạn tăng tốc chính sẽ bắt đầu từ quý 2.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp phi GAAP quý 4 năm tài chính giảm xuống 30,9% từ mức 34,7%, chủ yếu phản ánh tình trạng thiếu hụt linh kiện và lạm phát giá cả. Ban lãnh đạo có kế hoạch tăng giá bán cho khách hàng để giúp bù đắp chi phí gia tăng.
• Doanh thu khu vực EMEA tăng 53% trong quý và tăng 33% trong năm tài chính 2026, nhờ một phần vào các hợp đồng mạng tư nhân giành được với các khách hàng trong lĩnh vực quốc phòng và năng lượng.

Kết quả tài chính chính

Trong năm tài chính 2026, doanh thu đạt 439,7 triệu USD, so với 434,6 triệu USD trong năm tài chính 2025. EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt tổng cộng 36,7 triệu USD. Lợi nhuận hoạt động GAAP tăng 8,7 triệu USD lên 19,2 triệu USD, trong khi lợi nhuận hoạt động phi GAAP tăng 5,2% lên 30,6 triệu USD.

Tiền mặt và chứng khoán có thanh khoản cao kết thúc năm ở mức 72,8 triệu USD, so với 97 triệu USD nợ vay, dẫn đến nợ ròng là 24,2 triệu USD. Dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh đạt 13,6 triệu USD. Aviat cũng đã mua lại khoảng 131.000 cổ phiếu với giá 2,2 triệu USD, ở mức giá trung bình 16,55 USD mỗi cổ phiếu.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Việc triển khai MDU là động lực tăng trưởng trung tâm trong năm tài chính 2027. Aviat cho biết công ty đang tiến tới việc tham gia vào 25 thị trường, tăng so với các giai đoạn trước là một, bảy và khoảng 11 đến 13 thị trường. Ban lãnh đạo tin rằng công ty đã thăng tiến trong thứ hạng nhà cung cấp của khách hàng và hiện là nhà cung cấp ưu tiên, mặc dù không kỳ vọng sẽ là nhà cung cấp duy nhất.

Ban lãnh đạo ước tính tổng cơ hội thị trường MDU hàng năm có thể đạt khoảng 100 triệu USD. Cơ hội thực tế thu được phụ thuộc vào sự phát triển thuê bao của khách hàng Tier 1 và thị phần của Aviat so với các đối thủ cạnh tranh. Các đơn đặt hàng bổ sung có thể phát sinh nhưng không được đưa vào kỳ vọng dự báo.

Mạng tư nhân vẫn là một lĩnh vực tăng trưởng cốt lõi khác. Nhu cầu từ an toàn công cộng đang được hỗ trợ bởi các ứng dụng tiêu tốn nhiều băng thông như máy bay không người lái (drone) và camera gắn trên người (body camera). Trong ngành tiện ích, Aviat đang định vị các vô tuyến vi sóng, vô tuyến Aprisa SCADA, bộ định tuyến LTE/5G, phần mềm quản lý mạng và các giải pháp đảm bảo dịch vụ của mình thành một danh mục kết nối tích hợp.

Aviat đã nhận được các đơn hàng bộ định tuyến LTE đầu tiên tại Mỹ, Châu Âu và Mỹ Latinh. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết cơ hội này vẫn còn tương đối nhỏ và chu kỳ thu mua của chính phủ khá dài, nhưng mức độ tương tác của khách hàng là rất đáng kể.

Tại các thị trường quốc tế, EMEA đạt mức tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ trong khi APAC đã ổn định. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng mảng kinh doanh quốc tế tổng thể sẽ trở lại tăng trưởng trong năm tài chính 2027. Phần lớn doanh thu khu vực Trung Đông bị trì hoãn ở quý trước đã được ghi nhận lại trong quý 4 năm tài chính, và ban lãnh đạo mô tả cung và cầu đối với nhóm khách hàng đó hiện đang ở trạng thái ổn định.

Aviat cũng coi kết nối vệ tinh quỹ đạo tầm thấp (LEO) là giải pháp bổ sung cho danh mục vô tuyến vi sóng và bộ định tuyến di động của mình. Khách hàng đang tiến hành thử nghiệm dự phòng vệ tinh và tự động chuyển phòng ngừa sự cố (automatic failover), nhưng ban lãnh đạo xác nhận rằng không có doanh thu liên quan đến LEO nào được đưa vào dự báo năm tài chính 2027.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến quý 1 sẽ là giai đoạn có doanh thu thấp nhất trong năm tài chính. Quý 2 và quý 4 dự kiến sẽ đạt đỉnh, trong khi quý 3 sẽ vượt quý 1. Doanh thu cũng được dự báo sẽ cao hơn trong nửa cuối năm so với nửa đầu năm, với việc ban lãnh đạo chỉ ra rằng tỷ lệ phân bổ khoảng 45% trong nửa đầu năm và 55% trong nửa cuối năm là hợp lý.

Giai đoạn tăng tốc của MDU dự kiến diễn ra chủ yếu trong quý 2, mặc dù một phần doanh thu có thể được ghi nhận trong quý kết thúc vào tháng 9. Công ty kỳ vọng chương trình BEAD sẽ bắt đầu đóng góp doanh thu ý nghĩa đầu tiên trong quý kết thúc vào tháng 12, nhưng chỉ một lượng nhỏ và thận trọng được đưa vào kế hoạch dự báo.

Ban lãnh đạo đã xác định 4 động lực tiềm năng giúp đạt mức trần của khoảng doanh thu dự báo: sự tăng trưởng thuê bao MDU và chiếm lĩnh thị phần mạnh mẽ hơn, quá trình triển khai BEAD nhanh hơn, doanh số bán mạng tư nhân cao hơn và giành được nhiều khách hàng Tier 1 hơn.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

Thiếu hụt linh kiện và lạm phát chi phí vẫn là những áp lực chính lên biên lợi nhuận trong ngắn hạn. Aviat đang tập trung vào việc đảm bảo nguồn cung bộ nhớ, bo mạch in, tụ điện và chip FPGA. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các hành động điều chỉnh giá và chiến lược phân bổ nguồn cung sẽ bắt đầu mang lại sự giải tỏa rõ rệt hơn từ quý 2 trở đi.

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng biên lợi nhuận gộp có xu hướng cải thiện từ quý 2 đến quý 4 năm tài chính, nhưng mô tả mức biên lợi nhuận khoảng 35% trong nửa cuối năm là một mục tiêu phấn đấu. Mảng kinh doanh MDU có đặc tính biên lợi nhuận sản phẩm ở mức trung bình, làm hạn chế lợi ích biên lợi nhuận từ sản lượng tăng cao.

Cơ hội MDU phụ thuộc vào sự sẵn sàng về mặt bằng của khách hàng, số lượng thuê bao mới và thị phần cạnh tranh của Aviat. Thời điểm triển khai BEAD cũng vẫn chưa chắc chắn mặc dù công ty đang tích cực báo giá cho khách hàng. Ngoài ra, việc chuyển đổi các mạng vi sóng từ một đối thủ cạnh tranh đang rút khỏi mảng kinh doanh này có thể mất từ 6 đến 18 tháng.

Điểm nổi bật trong phần Q&A với chuyên gia phân tích

• Thời điểm triển khai MDU: Công tác chuẩn bị mặt bằng và đặt hàng linh kiện dự kiến sẽ diễn ra trong quý tháng 9, tiếp theo là giai đoạn tăng tốc triển khai mạnh mẽ hơn trong quý tháng 12.
• Cơ hội cạnh tranh: Aviat đã xây dựng danh mục cơ hội tiềm năng sau khi một đối thủ Châu Âu thông báo rút lui vào tháng 11 năm 2025. Ban lãnh đạo nhận thấy tiềm năng chuyển đổi cao hơn trong các quý tháng 3 và tháng 6 sau quá trình chuyển đổi mạng lưới kéo dài.
• Chương trình BEAD: Cơ hội đã chuyển từ lập kế hoạch trên lý thuyết sang báo giá tích cực cho khách hàng. Ban lãnh đạo tiếp tục coi đây là động lực thúc đẩy doanh thu trong 3 năm.
• Cơ cấu doanh thu: Mảng kinh doanh tổng thể của Aviat gồm khoảng 45% từ mạng tư nhân và 55% từ các nhà cung cấp dịch vụ hoặc nhà mạng di động. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết cơ cấu tại Mỹ nghiêng nhiều hơn về phía mạng tư nhân.
• Kiểm soát bảng cân đối kế toán: Aviat báo cáo rằng tất cả 5 yếu kém nghiêm trọng được xác định trước đây đã được khắc phục hoàn toàn.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Welcome to Aviat Networks' Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call.[Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Andrew Fredrickson, Vice President, Corporate Finance. You may begin.

Andrew Fredrickson

Thank you, and welcome to Aviat Networks' Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results Conference Call and Webcast. You can find our press release and updated investor presentation in the IR section of our website at www.aviatnetworks.com, along with a replay of today's call. With me today are Pete Smith, Aviat's President and CEO, who will begin with opening remarks on the company's fiscal quarter, followed by Andy Schmidt, CFO, to review financial results for the quarter. Pete will then provide closing remarks on Aviat's strategy and outlook.

As a reminder, during today's call and webcast, management may make forward-looking statements regarding Aviat's business, including, but not limited to, statements relating to fiscal guidance, financial projections, business drivers, new products and expansions, the economic activity in different regions. These and other forward-looking statements reflect the company's opinions only as of the date of this call and webcast and involve assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those statements. Additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements expressed or implied on this call can be found in our most recent filings with the SEC.

The company undertakes no obligation to revise or make public any revision of these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Additionally, during today's call and webcast, management will reference both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our press release, which is available in the IR section of our website at www.aviatnetworks.com and financial tables therein, which include a GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation and other supplemental financial information. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Aviat's President and CEO, Pete Smith. Pete?

Peter Smith

Thanks, Andrew. Let's review the highlights from the fourth quarter. Quarterly revenues of $121 million, up 4.8% versus the year ago period. Adjusted EBITDA of $11.9 million, non-GAAP EPS of $0.64, year-end backlog of $367 million, up 14% versus the end of fiscal year 2025. This marks a strong end to Aviat's fiscal 2026. Full year revenue was $440 million, up 1.2% versus the prior fiscal year. This represents our sixth consecutive year of revenue growth. Aviat is the only microwave company to achieve this growth during the last 6 years.

I would also like to note that this was the first time in over a decade that Aviat has had all 4 quarters in the fiscal year with at least $100 million in revenue. This is a tremendous achievement, and I would like to thank all of our customers, supplier partners and employees in making this possible. Since FY '23, we have been expanding outside of our core microwave business with a focus on mission-critical access. In FY '26, sales of non-microwave, i.e., mission-critical access products grew significantly versus FY '25 and is the result of Aviat's strategic decisions and execution in years prior, allowing us to diversify our business and gain access to larger, faster-growing segments. We are glad to see this strategy coming to fruition.

Now I'd like to talk more about recent developments in our end markets. In the U.S., strong quarterly sales and bookings set the stage for an exciting year ahead. We see several growth vectors aligning for Aviat. First, we believe our multi-dwelling unit MDU opportunity will deliver meaningful revenues to Aviat this year. We announced an order received from an existing customer in the range of $25 million to $30 million. We expect all of this revenue in fiscal 2027. The Aviat team continues to work to win additional markets and adjacent opportunities to increase our capture rate in fiscal 2027 and beyond.

Secondly, we see private networks continuing to be a core foundation for Aviat's growth. In state and local public safety networks, Aviat remains the leader and continues to pursue opportunities for more share of demand. According to industry research, city and state government budgets are expected to grow 6.4% and 4.2%, respectively. Video-intensive applications like drones and body cameras as well as other data-intensive tools drive increased bandwidth demand within private networks, which necessitates more or upgraded microwave links.

As highlighted in our last earnings call, utility private networks are poised for growth. Power infrastructure and grid connectivity are emerging as key bottlenecks to AI infrastructure deployment. This build-out requires secure, highly reliable communication networks to connect and manage grid assets. Aviat participates here, thanks to our portfolio of industry-leading solutions geared towards utilities. Our microwave radio portfolio of Aprisa SCADA radios and LTE 5G routers, combined with our network management software and our health assurance and frequency assurance offerings provides utilities a one-stop shop for its network connectivity build-out and management needs.

With the SpaceX IPO and the announcement of a potential fourth cellular network in the U.S., there is a significant amount of investor interest in low earth orbit or LEO networks. We believe that there is a valuable niche to fill in the communication space specifically around nomadic or very remote locations. Therefore, we see the technology as being complementary and not necessarily competitive with Aviat. We see the following for LEO and Aviat. One, Aviat's core business is largely unthreatened. Two, there is an idea of SpaceX building out a terrestrial network. While the architecture of that conceptual network is not fully formed, should this materialize, Aviat is well positioned if and when the architecture requires terrestrial backhaul. Three, most exciting is the new functionality that LEO brings. LEO offers redundant communications. This is most valued by private network customers, and we are seeing opportunities for Aviat through integration with microwave and cellular router solutions.

For microwave networks, satellite provides a low-cost, easy-to-deploy backup path for critical remote sites. For cellular routers and public safety and fleet applications, satellite fills LTE and 5G coverage gaps with automatic failover. In both cases, Aviat's opportunity is to deliver an integrated solution that improves resilience while simplifying deployment, management and operations for our customers. Aviat's customers are engaged in trials to demonstrate the value proposition of this redundancy. Please see Slide 11 in our investor presentation to get a picture of the ongoing trials and connectivity solution we bring.

Moving on to international. Aviat's business has seen particular traction in the EMEA region, where revenues were up 53% in the fourth quarter and up 33% for all of fiscal 2026. This growth has been driven in part by recent international private network wins, including with defense customers, including blackned as well as energy firms. As we pursue more such private network business, we see this segment as growing -- a growing portion of our international business in the future.

Moving on to supply chain. Like others in the technology hardware space, Aviat has not been immune from component shortages and cost inflation. Specifically, we are most focused on securing supply for memory, printed circuit boards or PCBs, capacitors and FPGAs. We will be opening the playbook we used during COVID supply chain crisis to secure favorable placement and allocations among our suppliers. Although Aviat has been able to manage through these current allocations and shortages with our inventory and safety stock, we have also had some headwinds to our gross margins from component cost inflation. We plan to pass along these price increases to our customers to help offset these rising costs. With that, I will now turn the call over to Andy to go through the financial results.

Andrew Schmidt

Thanks, Pete. I'll review some of the key fiscal year 2026 and fourth quarter results. Please note that our detailed financials can be found in our press release and all comparisons discussed are between fourth quarter of fiscal year '26 and fourth quarter of fiscal year '25, unless otherwise noted. For the fourth quarter, we reported total revenue of $120.9 million as compared to $115.3 million for the same period last year, an increase of 4.8%. Revenues for the 12-month period were $439.7 million versus $434.6 million the year ago 12-month period.

North America, which comprised 56.5% of our total revenues for the quarter were $68.3 million. This was up $10.3 million or 17.8% versus the year ago period. These results were complemented by a limited set of deployments for our North American-based MDU project in the quarter. International revenues, which made up 43.5% of total revenues were $52.6 million for the quarter. For fiscal 2026, North American revenues were $220 million, up 6% versus fiscal year '25. International revenues were $219.6 million in fiscal '26 compared to $227 million in fiscal '25. EMEA showed solid results for fiscal '26, while APAC stabilized. We feel our international business overall is poised for growth in fiscal '27.

Gross margins in the fourth quarter were 30.8% on a GAAP basis and 30.9% on a non-GAAP basis. This compares to 34.2% GAAP and 34.7% non-GAAP in the prior year. The year-over-year change in gross margin is typically due to volumes, regional and product mix. That said, as Pete noted earlier, our current period gross margin was negatively affected by component shortages and associated price inflation. For fiscal 2026, gross margins were 31.5% on a GAAP basis and 31.8% on a non-GAAP basis. This compares to 32.1% GAAP and 32.8% non-GAAP in fiscal '25. Fourth quarter GAAP operating expenses were $31.4 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses, which exclude the impact of restructuring charges, share-based compensation and other costs were $27.3 million.

For fiscal '26, GAAP operating expenses were $119.1 million and non-GAAP operating expenses were $109.2 million. This is versus $128.9 million GAAP and $113.5 million non-GAAP in fiscal '25, a decrease of $9.8 million and $4.3 million, respectively. This is the result of the entire management team diligently managing costs, continuously reviewing corporate needs and driving process efficiency efforts. Fourth quarter operating income was $5.8 million on a GAAP basis and $10 million on a non-GAAP basis. This compares to $8.9 million GAAP and $12.9 million non-GAAP in the year ago period. For fiscal '26, GAAP operating income was $19.2 million, up $8.7 million versus the last fiscal year. Fiscal 2026 non-GAAP operating income was $30.6 million, up $1.5 million or 5.2% versus the last fiscal year. The fourth quarter non-GAAP tax benefit was $0.5 million. As a reminder, as of fiscal 2026 year-end, the company has over $420 million of net operating losses or NOLs that will continue to generate shareholder value via minimal cash tax payments for the foreseeable future.

Fourth quarter GAAP net loss was $1.3 million and non-GAAP net income was a positive $8.3 million, which excludes restructuring charges, depreciation and amortization, share-based compensation, interest and other income, other nonrecurring expenses and the noncash tax provision. Fourth quarter GAAP loss per share was $0.10 on a fully diluted basis and non-GAAP earnings per share came in at a positive $0.64 on a fully diluted basis. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $11.9 million or 9.8% of revenues. For the fiscal year, adjusted EBITDA was $36.7 million.

Moving on to the balance sheet. Our cash and marketable securities at the end of the fourth quarter were $72.8 million. Our outstanding debt was $97 million, bringing the net debt position to $24.2 million. Aviat made continued improvements in its balance sheet. Unbilled receivables were lower for the third consecutive quarter. The fourth quarter balance was $3.1 million lower compared to the fiscal 2026 third quarter ending balance. This brings our total unbilled receivables balance to $82.1 million. Inventories were also lower sequentially by $3.6 million, bringing our inventory balance to $69 million.

For the full fiscal year, Aviat generated cash from operations of $13.6 million. Combined with the other balance sheet improvements, this is good progress for shareholders. Other points to make. Aviat used $2.2 million to repurchase approximately 131,000 shares in the quarter at an average price of $16.55 per share. Finally, we are pleased to share that in the context of our control environment, we have fully remediated our past 5 material weaknesses. Rest assured, Aviat's core value of continuous improvement is still in play, and we will continue to work to further strengthen our foundation. With that, I'll turn it back to Pete for some final comments.

Peter Smith

Thanks, Andy. Regarding our fiscal 2027 guidance, we are establishing our outlook as follows: full year revenues to be in the range of $455 million to $470 million; full year adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $50 million to $55 million. Note that our guidance is full fiscal year. Some additional color on seasonality. Based on our backlog and current outlook, the first quarter will be the foundation on which Aviat's revenue builds throughout fiscal 2027. Additionally, we expect the second half of the fiscal 2027 to have higher overall revenues versus the first half of fiscal 2027. See Slide 23 in the investor presentation for a view of the seasonality Aviat has typically experienced and for use in your models. With that, operator, let's open up for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question coming from the line of Scott Searle with ROTH Capital.

Phần hỏi đáp

Scott Searle

Nice job on the quarter. Also nice to see the balance sheet improvements and the cleanup of the material weaknesses. Maybe just to dive in, I wonder if you could give us an idea of the breakdown in North America between carrier contribution and private networks? And then specifically, looking into the September quarter and how we ramp up from an MDU contribution standpoint. Pete, how is that shaping up just in terms of the context of how we should think about the flow of that into the course of fiscal '27?

Peter Smith

So we ended the year with record backlog, up 14%. A lot of that was worked throughout the year that landed in the May, June time frame. There's this pervasive component availability. So when we said in the script that the Q1 is going to be a foundation, we think given the timing of our wins and given the supply chain ramp-up, we think if you put a revenue profile together, Q1 will be the lowest. Q2 and Q4 will be peaks and Q3 should be higher than Q1. And then with respect to the overall, I have -- I don't have the U.S. breakdown in front of me, but we're about 45% private networks, 55% service providers or mobile network operators. And I think that -- I'll give a qualitative statement. I would say the U.S. has more private networks than the overall Aviat. So I think that gives you a vector on that, Scott.

Scott Searle

Okay. Pete, just to clarify, though, on the MDU front, do you expect contribution in the September quarter? Or is there a lot of predeployment activity ongoing, more engineering and otherwise, and we should expect to ramp up into the second half of the year or second quarter?

Peter Smith

Yes. So we think the ramp-up is going to occur in the second quarter. There is a chance that we get some in the September quarter. And let me just give a little more color on this. We completed more proof of concepts in a variety of markets. And we believe that the customer has moved us ahead in the supplier pecking order where we think we're established as the preferred vendor. So what we really need to do is get that site readiness over the hump in the September quarter, get all of our components on order and enjoy the win in the December quarter.

Scott Searle

Great. And 2 other quick ones, if I could. Just on the satellite LEO opportunity. I'm wondering if you're actually starting to see interesting contribution today. It seems like there's a lot of activity, but I'm wondering what you're factoring into that fiscal '27 guidance at this point in time. And then second, gross margins, some component headwinds on that front. I'm wondering how you're thinking about that in terms of fiscal '27, broadly speaking. Is there some expansion in gross margin opportunities given some incremental scale and product mix? Or are you still seeing some headwinds on the component front?

Andrew Schmidt

Sure, Scott. This is Andy. Great to hear from you. In terms of gross margins, as Pete commented on revenue, Q1 is going to be our building block and we go up from there. So we -- it is, let's call it, the foundation or lowest part of the year, it's going to be affected by lower volume, of course. Pete did talk to in his prepared remarks, strategies that we're deploying to offset the component inflation, if you will. Those are going to be more realized in Q2 and going forward, not in Q1. But again, we do have plans and we expect Q2, 3 and 4 to have more upward pressure on gross margin.

Peter Smith

And there's no LEO in the guide.

Operator

Our next question in queue coming from the line of Christian Schwab with Craig-Hallum.

Christian Schwab

Congrats on the solid quarter. I'm wondering if you could give us an update on your large European competitor who is exiting their microwave business, we believe, by the end of this calendar year. Are you seeing any business benefit from that currently? And would you anticipate or see an increased dialogue that you think will benefit you in your next fiscal year?

Peter Smith

A competitor of our European competitor has communicated that their pipeline of opportunities is improving. And I would suggest that the same thing is transpiring with us. To convert a microwave network, it's a 6- to 18-month proposition. And the good news for us was the announcement was made November of 2025. And immediately after that, I think Aviat and all of our non-for-sale competitors created a pipeline and are pursuing that. And I would say we've had kind of normal course of business wins. And I would say that our competitors have probably had that as well where networks get exchanged at a low level. I think the possibility for this to improve is probably in the March and June quarters for Aviat as well as the the competitors that have been working over the -- what will be a period of 1 year, 1.5 years to convert the uncertainty to wins.

Christian Schwab

And then as it relates to BEAD, is there -- there's been a lot of fluctuations of people tied to that. And just wondering what's your current thoughts. I think before, we thought maybe some things would start in fiscal year '27, but really had more of a multiyear outlook. I'm just wondering if there's any update on your current thoughts there.

Peter Smith

Yes. In front of me, we've got quotes out to our customers. We're working to turn those quotes into business. So it's becoming tactical rather than theoretical. And I would also say that we still believe it to be a 3-year impact. And we -- our estimate is in the December quarter, it should have the first real impact to our revenue.

Christian Schwab

Okay. Fantastic. And then lastly, regarding your belief that you're the preferred vendor and showing proof of concepts of different applications on the MDU ramp. I appreciate the $25 million to $30 million significant order in hand. Should we anticipate that there could be more significant orders as we go through fiscal year '27? Or is that yet too early?

Peter Smith

I don't want you to anticipate, but there could be. How about that? Trying to split the middle there. But it's a fair question, and we're hopeful. Let's not put it in the model, but that's what we're working towards.

Operator

Our next question in queue coming from the line of Jaeson Schmidt with Lake Street.

Jaeson Schmidt

Just following up on Christian's last question on the MDU opportunity and potential for more orders. Can you help us size the potential follow-on orders? Or how are you looking at this opportunity sort of in the intermediate term here?

Peter Smith

Yes. So I think what's really critical to driving the size of the opportunity is subscriber growth, and we're in the early innings of the subscriber growth. And the more subscribers that come online for this Tier 1, the bigger the opportunity. I mean for the last time we talked, we sized this as an 8-figure opportunity, and we put that in our 8-K during our quiet period, we would say that, just that we think it's going to get bigger.

So then the next question is, does it cross the barrier for 9 figures? I don't know -- I think the total annual opportunity is in the $100 million neighborhood, how the -- and that's predicated on, one, the customer achieving their subscriber growth metrics. And two, our share versus the competitive share. So if you want to look at this as what could it be, what could it all be? I would say we hit the $100 million figure. The precursors to that are -- the market opportunity hits the $100 million level. How that parses out between Aviat and the competition, it's looking more favorable, but I don't see any situation where we'd be sole sourced. And then what's probably more important is how many subscribers come on to those MDU units.

Jaeson Schmidt

Okay. That's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up, can you update us on the Aprisa router funnel and what you're seeing and expectations for fiscal '27?

Peter Smith

So we're not going to break out guidance specifically for Aprisa. The Aprisa business on the utility front, which is why we bought in, continue to enjoy it, is performing well. We've talked in the past about the LTE router and basically putting this router into public safety or police cars. What I can say is that we have initial orders in the U.S., Europe and Latin America. It's still relatively small, and there's a long lead site -- a long kind of runway to get government agencies into the purchasing funnel. But I would also say that our performance in the mobile cellular router sector is we're going up against Cradlepoint. And the reason we have those initial orders and significant engagements is because we have a compelling value proposition that customers like, and it's just going to take time, but we believe that it will happen.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is coming from the line of Dave Kang with B. Riley.

Dave Kang

First question is, just wondering how much -- regarding that Middle East projects that were delayed last quarter, how much of that was captured in the fourth quarter?

Peter Smith

I think most of it, Dave, most of it was recaptured.

Dave Kang

Got it. And did that mix also played into that gross margin? I know you talked about supply chain headwind, but also the mix.

Andrew Schmidt

Primarily the component inflation has affected this quarter. Mix is pretty much representative. As I said in the prepared remarks, Americas were about 56.5%, which is fairly typical.

Peter Smith

Just to add to that, Dave, right? So the nature of the inflation in the component environment is sometimes there's spot market, sometimes it's prices go up even after you make the order. And in the next few weeks, we're going to go out to our customers for more price. So unfortunately, the nature of the inflation is it's a little more abrupt than typical. So we got impacted by that abruptness, and we're going to work to offset those -- that inflation. I think we should get some improvement in the December quarter and then the back half, it should be better still.

Dave Kang

So by second half, can we expect like mid-30s in terms of gross margin expectations?

Andrew Schmidt

That would be aspirational. A lot of the growth, again, is coming out of MDU as we've talked through in these other markets, and that has pretty much what we call more of a middle of our product strategy profile. So again, we ended the year at about 32%. That's a safe harbor in terms of how we operate, just looking at historical. Again, as we -- as Pete talked to these different strategies, we expect some upward pressure. So that's good. But I wouldn't necessarily go as high as what you're suggesting as we speak today.

Dave Kang

Got it. And my last question is regarding your fiscal '27 revenue outlook. Just wondering if any BEAD factored into that outlook?

Peter Smith

A small amount, relatively conservative. So BEAD kicks in, we will revisit the guidance.

Operator

Our next question coming from the line of Theodore O'Neill with Litchfield Hills Research.

Theodore O'Neill

Congratulations on the good quarter. I want to also follow up on the MDU opportunity. Can you tell us -- I'm sure you can't mention them by name, but can you tell us about the type of customers that are driving the MDU opportunity?

Peter Smith

Well, we've disclosed in a lot of industry folks -- we've disclosed that it's a U.S. Tier 1 that has access to 39 gigahertz spectrum. So that narrows it down and the field installers have leaked this, but it's not for us to disclose. So -- and their customers' customers are apartment dwellers that typically, the profile is they skew younger, lots of remote work from home that require bandwidth beyond what's economically delivered today.

Theodore O'Neill

Okay. And Pete, last quarter, you talked about war-induced pushouts of about $9 million. And you already said that part of that had come into Q4. Did that all make in? Or are you still experiencing some kind of war-induced issues out there?

Peter Smith

Actually, so the customer was not overdue. So -- but that was in the Middle East, war-induced issue. And we would say that there's steady state that, that problem has reversed. And I would say our demand in that customer base and our supply is at steady state.

Theodore O'Neill

Okay. And finally, on the range of revenue guidance, there's a range of $15 million. Can you talk about what -- sort of what would make it at the high end or the low end of that sort of the give and take in that?

Peter Smith

Yes. I'd like to talk about how to make it -- to get to the higher end, more MDU and how does that, one, is more subscriber growth; two, share gain versus the competition. Two is our de minimis modeling of BEAD. So if BEAD kicks in the way we've wished it would have kicked in over the last 5 years, then we will revisit guidance. And then three would be private networks.

And Christian asked a question about the competitive dynamics in private networks. We think we're well positioned if some of those convert or if private networks, the Aprisa LTE router opportunity is in there. If either of those 2 things happen, that will pop up our private network. And then lastly, we see some -- given the competitive dynamics globally, we have more Tier 1 interest than normal new Tier 1. So that would be the fourth potential lever to move us from, let's say, the midpoint to the high end. So we have 4 possibilities.

Operator

Our next question coming from the line of Rustam Kanga with Citizens Bank.

Rustam Kanga

Andy and Pete, nice close to the year. Regarding the historical revenue pattern at 48% to 52% for the back half of the year for your guidance for next year. Are you looking at something like more towards the range of 40%, 60%? Or could it be more pronounced than that?

Andrew Fredrickson

Russ, this is Andrew Fredrickson. Yes. So we mentioned that the second half of the year would be a little bit more back half weighted. I would think you could think about it incrementally more than maybe where it's been historically. So maybe it's something closer to 45%, 55% but we'll certainly continue to keep you updated as we advance through the year. But if you look at the investor Slide #23 in our investor presentation, we have historical numbers over the last couple of fiscal years. I would say at a minimum, that's a good kind of guidance level from a seasonality perspective. But again, maybe you have a couple more percentage points in the back half.

Peter Smith

Yes. Slide 23 is the model that we're signing up to.

Rustam Kanga

Sounds good. And then regarding the MDU opportunity, I understand that it's hinging on the subscriber growth there. Just curious if the number of markets that you're operating there has grown or sustained from what you've talked about in the previous quarter.

Peter Smith

Yes. I think we're slated or are in 25 markets. And if we roll back the clock, we were 1, 7, 11 to 13. So now I think we're approaching the 25 market level.

Operator

And I'm showing no further questions in the Q&A queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Pete Smith with any closing remarks.

Peter Smith

It's an exciting time for Aviat. Thanks, everyone, for joining. We look forward to again updating you in November. Thanks.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.