การประชุมแถลงผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ของคราฟท์ ไฮนซ์ (KHC): อัตราเงินเฟ้อปี 2027 สูงกว่า 5%

สรุปประเด็นสำคัญ

• คราฟท์ ไฮนซ์ ประกาศบรรลุข้อตกลงขั้นสุดท้ายในการขายธุรกิจกาแฟในอเมริกาเหนือให้แก่ วัน ร็อค โดยบริษัทยังคงถือหุ้นส่วนน้อยในสัดส่วน 30%
• ฝ่ายบริหารคาดการณ์ว่าอัตราเงินเฟ้อในปี 2027 จะอยู่เหนือระดับ 5% เล็กน้อย เมื่อเทียบกับประมาณการเดิมที่ 4%–5% โดยได้รับแรงกดดันจากบรรจุภัณฑ์ น้ำมันถั่วเหลือง และแนวโน้มการกลับทิศของต้นทุนผลิตภัณฑ์นมที่เคยเอื้ออำนวย
• บริษัทยังคงคาดว่าจะใช้เงินลงทุนจำนวน 700 ล้านดอลลาร์ผ่านงบกำไรขาดทุนปี 2026 โดยเงินลงทุนด้านการค้าและการตลาดที่วางแผนไว้ประมาณ 70% ได้ถูกใช้ไปแล้ว ณ สิ้นไตรมาส 3
• สัดส่วนรายได้จากธุรกิจค้าปลีกในสหรัฐฯ ที่แย่งส่วนแบ่งตลาดเพิ่มขึ้นได้ปรับตัวดีขึ้นจากประมาณ 25% ในช่วงครึ่งแรกของปี 2026 เป็น 28% ในไตรมาส 3 โดยฝ่ายบริหารคาดว่าการปรับผังสินค้าของผู้ค้าปลีกในช่วงฤดูใบไม้ผลิปี 2027 จะช่วยสนับสนุนการขยายช่องทางการจำหน่าย
• ธุรกิจ Away From Home ในสหรัฐฯ และแคนาดาต่างเติบโตในอัตราตัวเลขหลักเดียวระดับต่ำ ขณะที่ธุรกิจ Global Away From Home ก็บันทึกการเติบโตเช่นกัน โดยฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าแรงขับเคลื่อนของธุรกิจ Away From Home เมื่อเร็ว ๆ นี้มีสาเหตุหลักมาจากการเพิ่มขึ้นของส่วนแบ่งตลาดและการขยายช่องทางการจำหน่ายใหม่
• การเพิ่มผลิตภาพยังคงเป็นแนวทางแรกในการรับมือกับอัตราเงินเฟ้อ แต่ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่ามีแนวโน้มที่จะต้องปรับขึ้นราคาในทุกภูมิภาคในปี 2027 เพื่อปกป้องอัตรากำไรขั้นต้น

ข้อมูลทางการเงินและการดำเนินงานที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการปฏิบัติการ

คราฟท์ ไฮนซ์ ระบุว่าผลการดำเนินงานในอเมริกาเหนือดีกว่าแผนเดิมที่วางไว้ การบริโภคภาคค้าปลีกในสหรัฐฯ ออกมาดีกว่าที่คาดไว้เล็กน้อย แม้ว่าจะได้รับแรงกดดันจากสินค้าคงคลังของผู้ค้าปลีกที่เพิ่มขึ้น ขณะที่กลุ่มผลิตภัณฑ์ที่ปรับตามสัดส่วนสินค้า (mix-adjusted) ชะลอตัวลงประมาณ 50 basis points

ฝ่ายบริหารกล่าวว่าการลงทุนในปัจจุบันช่วยปรับปรุงอัตราการหมุนเวียนของสินค้า (product velocity) ให้ดีขึ้น แต่การกระจายสินค้ายังคงถูกจำกัดจากการสูญเสียพื้นที่บนชั้นวาง และไลน์นวัตกรรมในอดีตที่ได้รับผลกระทบจากการลงทุนที่น้อยเกินไปในช่วงก่อนหน้า ทั้งนี้ บริษัทคาดว่าการปรับตัวดีขึ้นอย่างมีนัยสำคัญครั้งถัดไปจะเริ่มขึ้นจากการปรับผังสินค้าของผู้ค้าปลีกในช่วงฤดูใบไม้ผลิปี 2027 ซึ่งเป็นช่วงที่บริษัทวางแผนจะเพิ่มจุดจำหน่ายทั้งหมด

คราฟท์ แมค แอนด์ ชีส, พาวเวอร์ แมค, คาปรี ซัน และเครื่องปรุงรส ได้รับการระบุว่าเป็นกลุ่มที่ได้รับประโยชน์จากการลงทุน ขณะที่การใช้จ่ายเพื่อสนับสนุน ไฮนซ์ และซอสมะเขือเทศไฮนซ์ก็ส่งผลลัพธ์ที่เป็นบวกเช่นกัน

ธุรกิจ Away From Home ยังคงเป็นจุดแข็งที่โดดเด่น ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าการเติบโตเมื่อเร็ว ๆ นี้ได้รับการสนับสนุนหลักจากการเพิ่มขึ้นของส่วนแบ่งตลาด ช่องทางการจำหน่ายใหม่ และความร่วมมือกับพันธมิตร รวมถึง NFL และดิสนีย์ ทั้งนี้ บริษัทคาดว่าธุรกิจนี้จะได้รับประโยชน์เพิ่มเติมหากสภาวะในกลุ่มผลิตภัณฑ์ปรับตัวดีขึ้นในปี 2027

ครีมชีส ฟิลาเดลเฟีย ยังคงเผชิญแรงกดดันในกลุ่มผลิตภัณฑ์ เนื่องจากผู้บริโภคหันไปหาสินค้าคอทเทจชีสและผลิตภัณฑ์เน้นโปรตีนอื่น ๆ ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าการลงทุนด้านราคาในอดีตไม่ได้กระตุ้นกลุ่มผลิตภัณฑ์นี้ตามที่ตั้งใจไว้ คราฟท์ ไฮนซ์ จึงตอบสนองด้วยนวัตกรรม รวมถึงครีมชีสปราศจากแลคโตส และวางแผนที่จะมุ่งเน้นไปที่โปรตีน รสชาติ และการพัฒนาผลิตภัณฑ์ที่หลากหลายยิ่งขึ้น

ออสการ์ เมเยอร์ ถูกระบุว่าเป็นธุรกิจที่สามารถแก้ไขได้ โดยได้รับการสนับสนุนจากความแข็งแกร่งของแบรนด์ แต่ฝ่ายบริหารยอมรับว่ายังมีนวัตกรรมไม่เพียงพอและมีความกังวลเกี่ยวกับลักษณะอาหารแปรรูปของกลุ่มผลิตภัณฑ์ ธุรกิจนี้ได้หยุดชะลอตัวในอัตราเดิมแล้ว แม้ว่าจะยังต้องการการปรับปรุงเพิ่มเติมก็ตาม

มุมมองของฝ่ายบริหาร

ฝ่ายบริหารคาดการณ์ว่าอัตราเงินเฟ้อในปี 2027 จะอยู่เหนือระดับ 5% เล็กน้อย บรรจุภัณฑ์และน้ำมันถั่วเหลืองยังคงเป็นแหล่งกดดัน ขณะที่ต้นทุนผลิตภัณฑ์นมที่เอื้ออำนวยในปี 2026 คาดว่าจะกลับทิศทางบางส่วนในปีหน้า

การเพิ่มผลิตภาพยังคงเป็นแนวทางแรกในการรับมือของบริษัท อย่างไรก็ตาม คราฟท์ ไฮนซ์ คาดว่าจะมีการปรับขึ้นราคาบ้างในทุกภูมิภาคในปี 2027 พร้อมกับพยายามลดผลกระทบต่อผู้บริโภคที่เผชิญแรงกดดันทางการเงิน ทั้งนี้ ฝ่ายบริหารเตือนว่าการปรับขึ้นราคามักจะตามหลังอัตราเงินเฟ้อด้วยช่วงเวลาที่ล่าช้า ซึ่งส่งผลให้เกิดแรงกดดันต่ออัตรากำไรชั่วคราวก่อนที่ราคาที่สูงขึ้นจะส่งผลต่องบกำไรขาดทุน

บริษัทคาดว่าการลงทุนผ่านงบกำไรขาดทุนในปี 2027 จะยังคงอยู่ใกล้เคียงกับระดับปี 2026 ที่ 700 ล้านดอลลาร์ ฝ่ายบริหารไม่ได้คาดการณ์ว่าความต้องการลงทุนเพิ่มเติมจะทำให้เกิดการลดลงของอัตรากำไรอีก และคาดว่าผลตอบแทนจากการใช้จ่ายจะปรับตัวดีขึ้นเมื่อบริษัทจัดสรรเงินทุนใหม่ นำบทเรียนปี 2026 มาปรับใช้ และเปิดตัวไลน์นวัตกรรมที่แข็งแกร่งขึ้น

ความเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องจับตา

• อัตราเงินเฟ้อกำลังเร่งตัวขึ้น โดยคาดว่าอัตราเงินเฟ้อในไตรมาส 4 ปี 2026 จะอยู่ที่ประมาณ 6% และแนวโน้มปี 2027 ปัจจุบันอยู่เหนือระดับ 5% เล็กน้อย
• การดำเนินการด้านราคาอาจกดดันความต้องการซื้อ ขณะที่ผู้บริโภคยังคงเผชิญแรงกดดัน
• ความล่าช้าด้านช่วงเวลาระหว่างต้นทุนเงินเฟ้อและการปรับขึ้นราคาอาจกดดันอัตรากำไรเป็นการชั่วคราว
• กลุ่มผลิตภัณฑ์ค้าปลีกในสหรัฐฯ ชะลอตัวลงประมาณ 50 basis points เมื่อปรับตามสัดส่วนสินค้า ขณะที่สินค้าคงคลังของผู้ค้าปลีกก่อให้เกิดปัจจัยลบมากกว่าที่คาดไว้
• การปรับตัวดีขึ้นของส่วนแบ่งตลาดยังคงเป็นไปอย่างค่อยเป็นค่อยไป และฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าความคืบหน้าจะไม่เกิดขึ้นเป็นเส้นตรง
• ครีมชีส ฟิลาเดลเฟีย เผชิญแรงกดดันในกลุ่มผลิตภัณฑ์ ขณะที่ ออสการ์ เมเยอร์ ต้องการนวัตกรรมและการปรับปรุงพอร์ตโฟลิโอเพิ่มเติม

ไฮไลต์การถาม-ตอบกับนักวิเคราะห์

จังหวะเวลาการลงทุน: กำไรจากการดำเนินงานในไตรมาส 3 ได้รับปัจจัยบวกประมาณ 450 basis points สูงกว่าที่คาดไว้ เนื่องจากจังหวะเวลาของการใช้จ่ายด้านการค้าและการตลาด ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าการเลื่อนเวลาดังกล่าวเกี่ยวข้องกับโครงการมากกว่าการเปลี่ยนแปลงกลยุทธ์ โดยการใช้จ่ายจะกระจุกตัวในไตรมาส 4 ในช่วงที่ความต้องการขึ้นสู่จุดสูงสุดในเทศกาลวันขอบคุณพระเจ้าและคริสต์มาส

ผลตอบแทนจากโครงการ 700 ล้านดอลลาร์: ฝ่ายบริหารคาดว่าจะได้รับผลตอบแทนที่ดีขึ้นในปี 2027 ผ่านการบริหารจัดการการเติบโตของรายได้ที่ปรับตัวดีขึ้น การจัดสรรงบประมาณด้านการค้าและสื่อใหม่ และการย้ายเงินทุนจากโครงการที่ให้ผลตอบแทนต่ำไปยังแบรนด์และกลยุทธ์ที่ให้ผลลัพธ์แข็งแกร่งกว่า

การปรับผังสินค้าบนชั้นวางของผู้ค้าปลีก: คราฟท์ ไฮนซ์ กำลังหารือกับพันธมิตรค้าปลีกเกี่ยวกับฟื้นฟูพื้นที่ขาย นวัตกรรม และการดึงดูดลูกค้าเข้าร้าน โดยฝ่ายบริหารคาดว่าการปรับผังสินค้าในช่วงฤดูใบไม้ผลิปี 2027 จะเป็นโอกาสในการฟื้นฟูช่องทางการกระจายสินค้า

การปรับพอร์ตโฟลิโอให้มีความกระชับ: การขายธุรกิจกาแฟในอเมริกาเหนือสะท้อนถึงความพยายามของบริษัทในการทุ่มเทเงินทุนและความสนใจของฝ่ายบริหารไปยังโอกาสที่มีการเติบโตสูงกว่า ทั้งนี้ คราฟท์ ไฮนซ์ จะยังคงประเมินการเปลี่ยนแปลงพอร์ตโฟลิโอต่อไป ขณะเดียวกันยังคงมีส่วนร่วมในธุรกิจกาแฟผ่านการถือหุ้นส่วนน้อยในสัดส่วน 30%

บันทึกการแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Kraft Heinz Company Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Anne-Marie Megela, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Anne-Marie Megela

Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Q&A session for Third Quarter 2026 business update. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future. These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please see the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in today's earnings release and our most recent SEC filings pull more information regarding these risks and uncertainties.

Additionally, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to today's earnings release and the non-GAAP information available on our website for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures. I'll now pass it over to our Chief Executive Officer, Steven Cahillane, for a few opening comments.

Steven Cahillane

Good morning, everyone. Before we open the call for questions, I want to take a moment to highlight this morning's announcement regarding the definitive agreement to divest our North American coffee business to One Rock. This is an important study in simplifying and strengthening our portfolio. With this transaction, we can concentrate our capital and management attention where we see the greatest potential for growth and where we can create the most value for our consumers, our customers and our shareholders.

I also want to acknowledge the people behind this business. These brands have a long and proud history with consumers, and that is a credit to the teams who have cared for them for over many, many years. Thank you for your dedication. We are confident these brands have a bright future under One Rock's focused ownership, and we are demonstrating that confidence by owning a 30% noncontrolling equity stake in the business, which allows us to share in their future success.

With that, I'm joined by Andre Maciel, and we're happy to take your questions. Operator, please open the line for the first question.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

ช่วงถาม-ตอบ

Andrew Lazar

Steve, I know you recently spoke a little bit a couple of weeks back about maybe some weakening category trends in sort of U.S. retail, but delivered the North America business organic as planned, even excluding the trade benefit, so I'm wondering how you sort of square those 2 and what you're expecting in 4Q regarding sequential improvement in U.S. retail, given I think the percent of revenue gaining or holding share seemed to take a little step back sequentially this quarter. .

Steven Cahillane

Yes, Andrew, thanks for the question. We did deliver a better result than our original plan, and you can see that on our narrow top line guidance. And I think what you're seeing in terms of our share trajectory and our consumption trajectory, is what you would expect based on the investments that we've made. We've leveled out in terms of where we are in terms of holding share, we'll acknowledge that for certain but if you think about the investments we're making, we're making those and we're making those against the innovations that were in the pipeline from last year.

So there's a lot of benefit that you'll see in the velocity, but there's not the same benefit that you'll see in total distribution points and the like. You'll see that really start to get kind of its next boost, if you like, in the first quarter, spring of next year with the resets. We've got very constructive dialogues going on with our retail partners. They love the fact that we're making these investments. They like what they're seeing in brands like Kraft Mac & Cheese and Power Mac and Capri Sun that are benefiting from that. They like what they're seeing in condiments but as we get into next year, you'll see we'll have a plan to actually grow TDPs and you'll see that next level of improvement starting next year, and that's exactly as we expected it.

Andrew Lazar

And in really yes. keep you on, Andre.

Andre Maciel

Just to give a little more color as well. First, give credit inside North America to U.S. Away from Home in Canada. They both grew low single digit in the butter again. So which is great and encouraging to see that consistency. On U.S. retail, to your point, it did come a little better despite having probably more pressure from retailer inventory than we expected.

So we mentioned 80 bps less invest earnings. There was a little more impacted than that, but the consumption came a little better. The category has indeed softened up the way you're expecting. So it was about in our portfolio, mix adjusted about 50 bps softer. But just to maybe adjust a little bit what you said. In the quarter, our percentage of revenue gaining share has improved a little bit. It went from roughly 25% in the first half to 28%. It's not a great improvement, but still another step in the right direction. So which I think helps you offset the headwinds we saw on the inventory.

Andrew Lazar

And I know it's too early to talk about '27 and maybe we'll get more of that sort of next week. But just with expected higher inflation a higher year-over-year tax rate next year, maybe some of the incremental investment this year likely to still be a year-over-year headwind next year. I guess are there any other key puts and takes we should consider? And maybe what sort of opportunities do you have to help mitigate some of these items again as we go into '27? .

Steven Cahillane

Yes. I think as we think about '27, we'll give more guidance than we normally would at an investor meeting next week or we'll talk more color about '27 next week. But we are seeing more inflation. I mean, I think everybody is seeing that. Our first-line defense is always productivity, and we're stepping up that productivity.

As we think about price, we want to take as little price as possible because of the consumer dynamic but price is likely to have to be taken in '27 for sure. And as I mentioned earlier, we're very bullish about the investments that we've made and the fact that we will get better returns on those investments after the spring resets. And we'll, again, talk more about that next week at our investor meeting, which I hope many of you will be able to attend.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC.

Nik Modi

Steve, I was hoping you can talk about away from home. We've been hearing from some other companies. There's been some pressure from Away From Home, but obviously, you had a very good quarter there. So just wanted to get some more context. Is this something you think you can muscle through this some of this weakness simply because you have these new partnerships and you're really leaning in.

Any context on that would be helpful. And then just kind of wanted to follow up on 1 of Andrew's questions regarding market share. You talked about better shelf resets next year, but something that we're picking up across a lot of different categories is how retailers are really kind of rethinking the aisle, generally. And I'm just curious, have you seen that, have had conversations with retailers around that, given how big you are as a supplier to many of your retailers?

Steven Cahillane

Yes. Thanks, Nick. So in Away From Home, most of our if not all of our success this last couple of quarters has been through share gains. And a lot of that is based on the partnerships that you referenced, the NFL and Disney are just really starting, and proving to be quite valuable. We're taking share. We're gaining new distribution across not only catch up but also the other condiments. So we're feeling very good about our away-from-home performance. And as we look to the consumer recovering in '27, if we continue to gain share and get the category itself gets a little bit of tailwind it's a great place for us to be.

So Global Away from Home grew nicely and North America away from home grew nicely. So we're feeling very good about that. In terms of the North American retail and the way they're thinking about the aisles we're involved in a lot of very constructive conversations around just that. How do you revitalize and how do you make the aisle more interesting. I wouldn't say there's anything dramatic in the offing for '27, but we're square at the table with those conversations and I think part of that is we punched that ticket when we made the investment of $600 million, now $700 million and was very bullish about we're going to grow we want to be a tailwind for our retailers, not a headwind.

And part of that comes through innovative thinking about how we make the aisle more dynamic, more interesting, how we bring more innovation, how we drive more traffic. So that is clearly a conversation that we're engaging up and down with our retailers.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Thomas Palmer with JPMorgan.

Thomas Palmer

I wanted to ask on the timing item you'd noted as it relates to operating profit in the quarter, the 450 basis points of help relative to your expectation from trade and marketing, what caused the timing shift was there anything more tactical on your end to kind of think about? And then just to clarify, you would look for this to be fully made up for in 4Q? Or is there a bit of a change in trade for the year as well?

Andre Maciel

Sure. Thanks for the question. Nothing in particular. It's just the way the programming ended up working. So we have by end of Q3, spent roughly 70% of the trade and the market investments planned for the year. Q3 year-to-date, we have already accrued in the P&L 6.1% of marketing. So we're going to -- we are facing that. So and there is no intention to change our plan whatsoever. .

So we do have historically our market share peaks in thanksgiving and Christmas. So we decided to concentrate a lot of the efforts to the Q4. So nothing beyond that.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

Max Andrew Gumport

Andre to focus on your market share performance in U.S. retail. So previously, when you announced these investment plans, you discussed how you expected to see meaningful results in the second half. Do you expect to see a bend in the trend even in market share. You acknowledge here bit behind schedule, but you're also saying things are playing out exactly as you expected and you now expect a meaningful step up next spring. Can you just maybe provide a bit more color on why it does seem like market share has perhaps not really shown the progress you initially expected to see in the U.S.?

And then a bit more color on why you remain confident that next year Yes.

Andre Maciel

Thanks, Mac. I'd remind you that we've never and we won't give market share forecasts. But our top line in North America and globally is moving better than we anticipated at the start of the year. And there's categories where we're doing better than we expected in these categories where we're acknowledging we're doing not as well as we expected. 1 of the not as well as expected is clearly in Philly, cream cheese. And it's an interesting 1 because we're gaining share, but we're losing consumption because the category is under pressure.

And some of the pricing moves that we made proved to be deflationary to the category, so they didn't work. And so we're adjusting. And so I'd say, broadly speaking, the fact that we bend the trend and we're holding that improving it very modestly is a better place to be than the opposite. And we've also said all along that progress would not be linear. And so we reserve the right to continue to get smarter to make the reinvestments and move things around as we see what's working and what's not working.

And so as we study our market share and we study our North American retail performance, what we've seen is we're gaining velocity and we are improving velocity against smaller shelf sets because we lost distribution last year, and we had an innovation pipeline that was based on the underinvestments of the years passed. But we looked at that pipeline and said, what could work for us. We think Kraft Mac & Cheese Power Mac could work. So we leaned into that. We thought Capri sun hhydrate could work. We leaned into that. We thought Oritaand shapes and some of those things were good.

So we leaned into that. And what we're looking forward to is the investments that we've made this year and the pipeline that we've built this year for next year will prove to be more beneficial to us. And so nonlinear, but good progress. And we're feeling good about where we are from a top line perspective. We're feeling good about the constructive discussions we're having with retailers about next year and so that's kind of where we stand.

We're feeling good about the innovation pipeline for next year. If you look at 1 example of what's happening in Canada, we introduced Katy Ramin. And literally, we sold 3 months of inventory in a week and great innovation and we're going to bring that to North America next year. And so we'll continue to hold ourselves accountable for market share and for consumption growth. And we're feeling okay about where we are right now, and we're feeling better about what we're building for next year. .

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Galbo with Bank of America. .

Peter Galbo

Andre, I know you mentioned that inflation maybe could still be higher into '27? I think last call, you had provided kind of some early thoughts on, I think, 4% to 5% inflation guidance for '27. I didn't see an update on that today. So I was just hoping to get some clarification there and obviously, on some of the raw materials, we've seen some deflation. So just curious kind of where you're falling in that band for next year.

Andre Maciel

As Steve said, we're going to provide a little more color on '27 next week, but I can tell you on inflation that we previously said in the prior call, we're expecting 4% to 5% next year. The expectation is now slightly above 5%. So we continue to see, on 1 hand, what inflation coming from packaging and from certain commodities, soybean oil remains a good item of pressure.

We are having a lot of favorability this year from dairy and we do expect some of that to reverse into next year, which you create contribute to the year-over-year pressure. And that's why Steve mentioned a little while ago that even though productivity remains the first line of defense, and you feel good about the pipeline we have for next year, there will be an element of price across all regions, so we can protect our gross margins.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Leah Jordan with Goldman Sachs.

Leah Jordan

Great. I just wanted to follow up on the margin discussion. I know there's been a few questions different this morning. But -- but you've previously suggested this year should be a trough in margins. And your investments continue to play out, some working, some not. You've called out a little bit higher input cost inflation. Just wanting to get an update on your confidence in that view, the high-level puts and takes we should keep in mind around the stability?

Or what would you call out as the biggest tailwind? Is it productivity at this point? Or just kind of help clarifying that point.

Andre Maciel

So what we have said is the level of investment that we have deployed in the P&L this year, $700 million, we believe to be sufficient to turn around the business and deliver sustainable value add growth. And that's still the case. And we are investing -- we will invest in the P&L of $700 million. And next year, that's expected to remain at the same level. So there will be no margin decline driven by more investments required. So that's important. Now with the level inflation and inflation raising throughout the year, just to put a perspective this year, our level of inflation is expected to be slightly more than 4%, but in Q4 is around 6%, which prompting the need to price across the regions.

Normally, when you see rising inflation, the pricing obviously comes with a lag, and that lag put temporary pressure on margins. So we do expect to see this type of dynamic effectiveness, but that's just temporary as price flows through the P&L. So again, we're not talking about 2027 next week, but I want you to understand these dynamics.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

Michael Lavery

You're obviously increasing the spending quite significantly this year, but you're also improving the ROI and ROEs. Can you maybe point to what's helping boost some of that effectiveness and efficiency. And, is there more upside? Is it specific to certain brands or categories that could be transferred more broadly across the portfolio or from 1 geography to another how's the -- what's kind of driving that lift? And is there more headroom to it? .

Steven Cahillane

Yes, Michael, thanks for the question. I'd say -- before I arrived, the company was making good progress in building capability around the efficiency of marketing spend and the investments that we're making are not just in advertising, promotion, price, they're also in capability and people.

So we continue to build on that capability. And technology continues to move forward rapidly in terms of our ability to understand in real time what we're getting returns for and what we're not. And I see continued upside in that. So the level of spending that we have, as Andre said, we feel is very sufficient. And getting a better return on that in '27 versus what we got in '26 is, in fact, very realistic and something we're demanding of ourselves. And so we feel good about the level of investment and we feel very good about the capability that we're building and our ability to get continued improvement in returns based on those investments.

Andre Maciel

And more tactically, like if you look on trade investments, we have a very good visibility to invest in capability in RGM for many years now. And there are -- continues to have opportunities for us to improve certain promotional tactics, sometimes moving dollars across brands. And on the marketing front, there is opportunity to redeploy dollars across brands to a certain extent and also improve the amount allocated to different media types.

So we're going to speak a little bit about that next week as well, you'll hear more, but we feel confident about the ability to continue to improve a lot of the returns on those investments.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

David Palmer

I wanted to ask you about the investments this year. How much of that $700 million has been spent so far? And do you think you're going to hit that number in calendar 2026.

Andre Maciel

Yes. As I said a few minutes ago, we have spent around 70% of the price investments for the year and about the same for marketing investments. We have, at this point, higher 80% of the the people that we have planned and we expect it to, by the end of the year, pretty much be hiring everyone that was previously anticipated. So we will spend the $700 million this year, as we have said before. .

There will be and we're going to put more money in marketing because we are not spending the whole money behind people, right, because of the natural ramp-up next year. There will be a little bit of carryover of people. but we are deploying resources across the different levels, and we do have a number of efficiencies on the SG&A front, further leveraging our shared services, further leveraging automation. So then any ramp-up of people will be fully offset. So but again, we are spending $700 million in the P&L this year.

David Palmer

Great. clarification. Wanted to just ask, you've talked a bit about some of the things that you're learning but if you had to sort of list the biggest things that you might do differently with the money that you're spending next year first of all do you envision it being similar in amount to this year but maybe just spend better.

And then why would it be better? I guess there's going to be maybe some retailer resets, maybe the quality of the innovation. Maybe some things you're learning on the promotion activity, ROI, any sort of proportions of why the ROI might be better.

Steven Cahillane

Yes, I'd say the ROI will be better simply because we're learning right? We're learning about this incremental investment and what's working, what's not working. The most obvious example that we pointed out is the pricing on Philly Cream Cheese, which worked in brick, but didn't work on top. And why is that? And so we explore why that is, and we learn from it, we reallocate that investment towards higher returning areas. A lot of what we're spending on Heinz catch-up really working, what we're spending on Heinz really working.

So it's just -- it's kind of as simple as that. We're learning what's working, and we're spending more against that. And in terms of innovation, as I mentioned earlier, we had the innovation pipeline as it was. And so we allocated investment against where we thought there were winners and I've mentioned some of those. We have a different innovation pipeline coming in '27, which we'll talk more about next week, which we feel is significantly better than '26, still not sufficient. So we're going to get better even beyond '27 into '28.

And so it's making sure that we're spending the appropriate amount of investment against R&D. We've increased our spend 20%. R&D spending and investment doesn't happen overnight, but it's building towards the future, and we feel good about getting closer to 1% of net sales as a ratio against R&D, more than 6% in sales and marketing. And so the investment is there. We feel the investment is sufficient but it's a learning curve that we're on, and it's a good place to be relative to anything else. So we feel good about '27 and the learnings that we'll apply based on '26 and onwards.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson with U.S. Bancorp.

Robert Dickerson

Great. Steve, obviously, a couple of comments on the call today about potential need to take some incremental price next year just to protect gross margin. I'm just kind of curious kind of how you're viewing let's say, the overall marketplace, right? Because like kind of the core tenant or 1 of the core tenets of the strategy longer term is like demand recovery, right? Volume-led growth that's profitable. Sometimes you take price, maybe it's harder to stimulate that demand, especially when the consumer is, but maybe that's less of a material event kind of if the entire marketplace does that.

So just kind of trying to gauge or get some color as kind of the thoughts on how that could play out.

Steven Cahillane

Yes. So if you study the syndicated data for this year, you can see that we've been taking less price and we've said that all along, the consumer is in a fragile state, and we want to take as low price as possible in order to meet the consumers where they are. When you look at what's happening in the fourth quarter of this year into next year, there's clearly more inflation. That's disappointing, but it's real. A lot of that is logistics. Fuel-driven, some commodities, but it's real.

So everybody is seeing COGS inflation. And so I do think you'll see more pricing in not less pricing. And so as Andre already mentioned and we say over and over, our first line of defense is against productivity and we'll continue to ramp up our efforts against productivity, but I do feel like '27 will require price. You're seeing that from the peer set, clearly. And so I think that's just the environment that we're going to be in. and it will be kind of -- we'll be in it with everybody, so it won't be a competitive advantage or disadvantage. It will just be the situation that we have to face.

Robert Dickerson

All right. Fair enough. And then maybe just 1 quick.

Unknown Executive

Go ahead. Go ahead. .

Robert Dickerson

Sorry. Just a quick question on the meats business. That's clearly kind of been a little bit of a drag, but you kind of for some time. obviously announced the divestment or I guess, partial divestment of coffee this morning. So I'm just curious, like is that is the meats business like kind of, I guess, broader question is, is that fixable? Like is the category itself a little disadvantage? Or is this an area where maybe you would consider kind of looking more in just file reasons of keeping it kind of like you've done with part of cheese and nuts and coffee. That's all.

Steven Cahillane

Yes. So we'll continue to look for opportunities to make our portfolio more growth-oriented portfolio. And you saw that today with the announcement around coffee, we feel very good about that. In terms of the meats business, Oscar Meyer, I would start with the strength of the brand. It is a phenomenal brand. So yes, it is fixable. There's areas where we've had some own goals, which we're fixing. It's improving quite a lot. So it's stopped getting as bad, but that's clearly not sufficient. So there's still work to be done. We haven't innovated around the Oscar Mayer portfolio in ways that you'd expect. We haven't addressed some of the concerns around the processed nature of it.

So there's a lot of things that we can do and we need to do around the Oscar business. But more broadly, I'd say, we'll continue to look for areas where we can make portfolio improvements.

Anne-Marie Megela

Operator, we have time for 1 more question. .

Operator

Our final question comes from the line of Scott Marks with Jeffries.

Scott Marks

Just come back to the Creme cheese category in Philadelphia. Obviously, part of the wind big bucket, you talked about some of the price investments not working. Maybe redeploying some of that. Just wondering if you can share a little bit about how you're thinking is that investment being redeployed to other parts of the business where you're seeing more traction? Are you putting it back into other areas of the Philadelphia business? Just any thinking or update around how you're thinking strategically about driving improvements forward for that brand in that category.

Steven Cahillane

Yes, it's all fungible, obviously. And when we look at Philly, the pricing investment didn't work, but we just launched lactose-free cream cheese and so we're building distribution there. And I'd say what Philly needs from a category perspective is more innovation because it's very clear where we're losing as a category, we're losing to cottage cheese and other more protein forward.

So we need to do more innovation around what the consumer is looking for vis-a-vis protein, vis-a-vis flavors, vis-a-vis overall innovation. And you'll see, and we'll talk more about that in the future in terms of what that brand can do and what the category can do. The brand itself is an incredibly strong brand. So there's nothing wrong with the brand. It's just the category is under some pressure relative to switching out of cream cheese into cottage cheese and others, and that's very addressable, but it's going to take just a little bit of time.

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And with that, the conclusion of today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.