Analysts say Trump’s transactional approach risks unraveling Indo-Pacific strategy

Relations between Washington and New Delhi have fallen to their lowest point in years, even as the United States patches things up with China following a meeting between their leaders in South Korea last week.

The friendship between America and India that took twenty years to build is now falling apart, according to people who study foreign policy. Atman Trivedi, who works at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group and focuses on South Asia, said getting back the trust between the two nations “could take years to rebuild.”

Several things have damaged the relationship in recent months. These include heavy taxes on Indian goods, a $100,000 charge for H1B work visas, and President Donald Trump saying repeatedly that he helped stop fighting between India and Pakistan.

China gets better treatment than India

Raymond Vickery Jr., who works at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trump clearly does not see India as useful for keeping China in check the way earlier presidents did. From the time Bill Clinton was president until now, American leaders picked “democratic India over autocratic China,” he explained. But the way Washington treats New Delhi has changed from being helpful for big-picture reasons to just looking at what benefits America right now.

At the same time, things are getting better between Washington and Beijing. Trump wrote on Truth Social last Saturday that his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping “was a great one for both of our countries” and would bring “everlasting peace and success.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth then said on X that the two countries agreed to create “military-to-military channels to deconflict and de-escalate” any trouble.

The Thursday meeting in South Korea between Trump and Xi produced a deal on trade. Washington lowered the special taxes on Chinese goods related to fentanyl from 20% to 10%, which brought the total tax rate on things from China to about 47%.

India pays more in tariffs than Beijing

China now pays less in taxes than India does. Back in August, America put 50% taxes on Indian products, plus another 25% because India buys oil from Russia. India called this “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” while Trump called America’s trade with India “a totally one-sided disaster!”

“At the leader-level, the chemistry is missing for now, and the impact of this disconnect on the U.S.-India relationship probably cannot be overstated,” Trivedi said as quoted in a CNBC report.

During his trip to Asia last week, Trump told business leaders at a meeting in South Korea that he warned India and Pakistan he would slap 250% taxes on them if they did not stop fighting each other.

Trump’s statements about stopping the India-Pakistan conflict are now being used by Indian politicians who oppose Prime Minister Modi. Rahul Gandhi, who leads the opposition, reportedly told people at a political gathering in Bihar on Sunday that Modi is “scared” of Trump.

Hermann said India now has to figure out where it stands between America and China, the world’s two biggest economies. While India could gain from selling more to America, it still needs China and cannot quickly move its supply chains because trade rules keep changing.

Defense partnership continues despite trade friction

Despite the bad feelings over trade, Washington and New Delhi signed a 10-year “Framework for the US-India Major Defence Partnership” on Friday. Hegseth said the countries were getting better at working together on “coordination, info sharing, and tech cooperation.” Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said the partnership was “critical for ensuring a free, open, and rules-based Indo-Pacific region.”

But experts say if Washington keeps treating India only as a business deal, the two will drift further apart and both will lose out on important goals. Vickery warned that “The Trump policy will push India further toward Russia, the Global South, and even China. This will not be in the interests of either India or the US.”

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