TechnipFMC (FTI) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Record Subsea Margin and 2027 Outlook

Key Takeaways

• TechnipFMC reported Q3 2026 revenue of $2.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $636 million, excluding a $9 million foreign-exchange loss. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 22%.
• Free cash flow reached $470 million. The company returned $340 million to shareholders through $320 million of share repurchases and $20 million of dividends.
• Subsea revenue increased 5% sequentially to $2.6 billion, while adjusted EBITDA margin reached a quarterly record of 23.5%.
• Total inbound orders were $2.3 billion, including $2.1 billion of Subsea orders. Management expects at least $14.5 billion of Subsea orders over the five quarters through 2027.
• TechnipFMC raised its 2026 outlook for Subsea revenue, free cash flow and total-company adjusted EBITDA.
• For 2027, management expects Subsea revenue of $10.0 billion to $10.4 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.5% to 24%.

Core Financial Data

Business and Operating Performance

Subsea revenue rose 5% from Q2 to $2.6 billion. The increase reflected higher activity on iEPCI projects in Indonesia and Brazil, together with stronger services activity. Lower project activity in Norway partially offset those gains.

Subsea adjusted EBITDA increased 6% sequentially to $612 million. Margin expanded to 23.5%, the segment’s highest quarterly margin to date, supported by execution, project activity and services.

Surface Technologies generated revenue of $296 million, up 7% sequentially, as activity increased in the Middle East and North America. Adjusted EBITDA was $53 million, also up 7%, while margin remained broadly stable at 18%.

TechnipFMC announced flexible-pipe awards in Angola and Brazil, as well as an integrated iEPCI contract from Petronas for the Limbayong deepwater project offshore Malaysia. Limbayong was one of three iEPCI projects awarded during the quarter.

The company also highlighted a strategic collaboration agreement with Petronas and a memorandum of understanding under which TechnipFMC would become BP’s preferred strategic supplier of 20K systems for its Paleogene program in the U.S. Gulf.

Management said the Subsea opportunity set had increased for nine consecutive quarters. Using project-value midpoints, the identified opportunity set reached $32 billion, up 25% over two years. Activity was described as broad-based across South America, Africa, the Norwegian Continental Shelf, Asia, Australia and the U.S. Gulf.

Management Guidance

For Q4 2026, management expects Subsea revenue to decline by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage sequentially because of normal seasonality. Subsea adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to decrease by approximately 250 basis points to 21%. Surface Technologies revenue and margin are expected to remain in line with Q3.

TechnipFMC updated its full-year 2026 guidance as follows:

For 2027, management expects Subsea revenue of $10.0 billion to $10.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.5% to 24%. At the midpoint, the company expects Subsea adjusted EBITDA to increase by more than 10% year over year, implying an incremental margin approaching 50%.

Management said the 2027 margin outlook does not depend on a contribution from iEPCI 2.0. The company expects to provide the remainder of its 2027 financial guidance with its Q4 results.

Risks and Areas to Watch

Management described the macroeconomic environment as fluid but said it had no direct correlation with the timing of the company’s $14.5 billion five-quarter Subsea order outlook.

Two to three large projects were in their final stages and were considered more likely than not to be awarded by the end of 2026. However, management cautioned that they could move into 2027. Any shortfall against the company’s approximately $10 billion 2026 Subsea order expectation would therefore be a timing issue, according to management.

Q4 Subsea results are expected to face seasonal pressure from lower North Sea activity and planned vessel maintenance and dry-docking. Management reported no significant concerns about overall manufacturing capacity.

Greenfield developments can take longer to advance because customers have less information about seabed conditions, geology and reservoirs. TechnipFMC nevertheless said its Subsea 2.0 configure-to-order architecture applies to both greenfield and brownfield projects.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

Management characterized the increase in offshore activity as structural rather than cyclical. It attributed the trend to improved project economics, greater delivery certainty, energy-security priorities and capital moving toward high-quality offshore reservoirs.

TechnipFMC said approximately 80% of its business is directly awarded rather than competitively tendered. Management linked this shift to customer adoption of portfolio-based development strategies, standardized Subsea 2.0 technology and the company’s execution record.

New orders entering backlog are accretive to existing backlog margins, according to management. The company said shorter cycle times and improved customer economics allow TechnipFMC to share in the value created.

On capacity, management emphasized throughput improvements rather than major incremental capital expenditure. It said a Subsea 2.0 order can move through manufacturing facilities at roughly 2.5 times the rate of a traditional Subsea 1.0 order.

Management expects services to grow broadly in line with the overall Subsea segment. It also noted stronger well-intervention activity as customers seek to optimize production from existing wells.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Complete Earnings Call Transcript

Management Remarks

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the TechnipFMC Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

[Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Matt Seinsheimer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Matt, please go ahead.

Matt Seinsheimer

Thank you, Matt. Good morning and good afternoon, and welcome to TechnipFMC's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Our news release and financial statements issued earlier today can be found on our website. I'd like to caution you with respect to any forward-looking statements made during the call. Although these forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations, beliefs and assumptions regarding future developments and business conditions, they are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these statements.

Known material factors that could cause our actual results to differ from our projected results are described in our most recent 10-K, most recent 10-Q and other periodic filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. We wish to caution you not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of our forward-looking statements after the date they are made, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I will now turn the call over to Doug Pferdehirt, TechnipFMC's Chair and Chief Executive Officer.

Douglas Pferdehirt

Thank you, Matt. Good morning and good afternoon. Thank you for participating in our third quarter earnings call. Total company revenue in the period was $2.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $636 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22% when excluding foreign exchange impacts. We generated free cash flow of $470 million in the quarter. Our quarterly results demonstrate continued strength and consistency in our execution, and I am proud of what our team has accomplished.

We recently achieved several operational milestones, all further strengthening our track record of client success in advancing offshore projects. In Suriname, we continue to make strong progress on the Grand Margo project with the delivery of critical subsea equipment ahead of schedule. Together with Totel Energies, we are helping to bring Suriname's first offshore development closer to production through early collaboration, standardized engineering, and delivery certainty. In August, we delivered the first Subsea 2.0 tree for Chevron's Gorgon Stage 3 project. This is the first tree delivered under Chevron's 20-year Subsea 2.0 frame agreement with TechnipFMC. During the quarter, we were also recognized at the 2026 Petrobras Best Suppliers Awards, receiving orders in 3 categories: flexible pipe installation, subsea wellhead systems and ESG governance. The awards recognize both our technology and execution performance, reinforcing the differentiated value we deliver to our clients and the strong governance standards that underpin our operations.

I want to specifically highlight the flexible pipe award. As this marks the fifth time we have received this recognition, demonstrating a proven track record of operational excellence. And most recently, we celebrated the manufacture and delivery of the 200th subsea tree for ExxonMobil in Guyana. With our Subsea 2.0 platform, enabling greater standardization across multiple projects. Together, these examples highlight the discipline that drives our execution. The collective efforts of our global team ensure that we continue to perform at a very high level. delivering projects not only on schedule, but in many cases, ahead of schedule, giving our customers greater confidence in sanctioning offshore projects. Turning to inbound orders. We announced 3 subsea awards for the quarter. We secured multiple contracts to supply flexible pipe systems, the first for Azul Energy and Angola, and the second for Petrobras in support of multiple pre-salt fields in Brazil.

We are well positioned for such awards as our industry-leading flexible solutions and ongoing industrialization efforts enable us to deliver greater efficiency, consistency and predictability around project timing and performance. We were also awarded an integrated contract from Petronas for the Limbayong project, their first deepwater project offshore Malaysia. This greenfield development will benefit from both our Subsea 2.0 configure-to-order platform and iEPCI execution of the entire Subsea scope, reducing project cycle time on this fast-track development. Notably, Limbayong was one of 3 iEPCI projects awarded to TechnipFMC in the period. Inbound orders in the quarter totaled $2.1 billion. In addition to these projects, we continue to enhance our customer relationships through collaborative partnerships. We recently finalized a strategic collaboration agreement with Petronas that establishes TechnipFMC as Petronas' strategic deepwater development partner, embeds our iFEED to iEPCI integrated delivery model, strengthens executive-level engagement and creates opportunities for growth across multiple projects and countries over the coming years.

The collaboration deepens our long-standing relationship and extends well beyond the scope of a traditional frame agreement. And just last week, we announced a memorandum of understanding with BP under which TechnipFMC will be the preferred strategic supplier of 20K systems for BP's Paleogene program in the U.S. Gulf. This exclusive agreement builds upon our proven 20K technologies and the experience gained through collaboration on BP's initial Paleogene developments, Kaskida, and Tiber. These new agreements exemplify our focus on client relationships and reinforce our commitment to deeper collaboration. Moving to the outlook. We remain optimistic about the durability of the subsea market. We have high visibility in offshore activity where we see a sustained resurgence driven by a record level of deepwater projects, which significantly improved economics and a shift in operator capital toward prolific, high-quality offshore reservoirs. This outlook is reflected in our Subsea opportunities list, which has increased for the 9th consecutive quarter and highlights an opportunity set that has grown 25% and over the last 2 years to $32 billion when using the midpoint of project values.

Let me now close on a few points. First, we are a technology company that has fundamentally changed the way we execute and deliver for our customers. Our unique operating model improves project economics while reinforcing customer trust and confidence in our delivery capabilities. Next, client recognition and new collaboration announcements further reinforce the value of customer engagement. Deeper collaboration drives even greater success for trust and shared goals create a clear path to direct awards. These relationships become increasingly more valuable as clients adopt a portfolio approach to offshore development. optimizing opportunities across their entire asset base rather than simply advancing individual projects. And finally, improving project economics and greater schedule certainty are attracting capital flows to offshore development. At the same time, energy security is prompting operators to diversify their investment opportunities while consuming nations are looking to diversify their source of supply.

Additionally, there is a near-term requirement to replenish diminishing stockpiles. Increased exploration is likely to follow, expanding activity in established regions while opening new markets in countries that have never produced from offshore basins. This is all driving a robust pipeline of opportunities. And if we extend our view to include 2027, we expect Subsea orders over the next 5 quarters to be at least $14.5 billion. Let me be clear, the Subsea order step-up is here. This momentum should also lift the quality of our inbound orders with substantially more Subsea 2.0, iEPCI and direct awards expected in the year ahead. We also believe the step-up in 2027 marks the start of a sustained wave of activity that will extend beyond the end of the decade. I will now turn the call over to Al to discuss our financial results and importantly, our outlook for Subsea in 2027.

Alf Melin

Thanks, Doug. Inbound in the quarter was $2.3 billion, driven by $2.1 billion of subsea orders. Revenue in the quarter was $2.9 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $636 million when excluding a foreign exchange loss of $9 million. Turning to segment results. In Subsea, revenue was $2.6 billion, a 5% increase versus the second quarter. The sequential revenue improvement was driven by increased project activity, specifically iEPCI projects in Indonesia and Brazil, as well as increased services activity. The revenue increase was partially offset by lower project activity in Norway.

Adjusted EBITDA was $612 million, up 6% sequentially due to strong execution and higher project and services activity. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 23.5%, the highest quarterly margin achieved to date. In Surface Technologies, revenue was $296 million, an increase of 7% from the second quarter. The increase was driven primarily by higher activity in the Middle East along with higher completion activity in North America. Adjusted EBITDA was $53 million, an increase of 7% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA improved due to higher activity in the Middle East and North America. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 18%, essentially in line with the second quarter. Turning to corporate and other items. Corporate expense was $29 million. Net interest expense was $4 million and tax expense was $104 million. Cash flow from operating activities was $531 million, with capital expenditures totaling $61 million in the quarter. This resulted in free cash flow of $470 million.

We repurchased $320 million of stock in the third quarter when including $20 million of dividends Total shareholder distributions were $340 million. Cash and cash equivalents was $1 billion. We ended the quarter with a net cash position of $645 million. Turning to fourth quarter guidance. For Subsea, we expect seasonal impacts to our fourth quarter results, with revenue declining mid- to high single digits sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to decline approximately 250 basis points to 21%. For Surface Technologies, we anticipate revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin to be in line with our third quarter results. Moving to our full year outlook. We are making the following updates to our guidance. We are increasing subsea revenue to a range of $9.6 billion to $9.8 billion. We are increasing free cash flow guidance to a range of $1.45 billion to $1.55 billion. And we are reducing the full year effective tax rate to a range of 25% to 27%.

With this update, we are increasing our expectation for total company adjusted EBITDA to approximately $2.22 billion for the full year, excluding foreign exchange. All other guidance items for the current year remain unchanged. Now let me take a moment to focus on next year. As Doug commented earlier, we have high visibility in offshore activity, which supports our expectations to inbound at least $14.5 billion of Subsea orders over the next 5 quarters. And importantly, this visibility puts us in a good position to provide an early view of Subsea financial guidance for next year. For 2027, we are expecting subsea revenue to be in a range of $10 billion to $10.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 22.5% to 24%. And we will provide the remainder of our 2027 financial guidance with our fourth quarter earnings.

In summary, our team continues to execute well. Both total company revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin improved sequentially. And with today's update we have now increased our expectations for total company adjusted EBITDA for the full year. Free cash flow for the first 9 months of the year improved $1.2 billion. We have distributed $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, representing 86% of free cash flow, already exceeding distributions made in all of 2025. Lastly, we have provided an early view of our 2027 Subsea outlook, reiterating our expectation for growth in Subsea inbound, revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin. When using the midpoint of the 2027 guidance ranges, we expect Subsea adjusted EBITDA to increase more than 10% year-over-year. This reflects continued strength in operational execution with incremental margin for Subsea approaching 50% in the coming years. Operator, you may now open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question comes from the line of David Anderson with Barclays.

Question-and-Answer Session

John Anderson

Doug, I hope my communication is okay. I'm traveling at the moment. I want to ask you about the $14.5 billion in terms of the next 5 quarters. Is the macro, what we're looking at today, is that an influence in terms of the timing of those projects in terms of either the fourth quarter or next year? Just curious, from your standpoint of kind of how your customers are thinking about the macro and how much that's influencing the actual? Or do you have such line of sight that, to a certain extent, it's irrelevant?

Douglas Pferdehirt

Sure, Dave. Good morning and we can hear you just fine. So the macro environment, as we're all dealing with is quite fluid at this point in time. In terms of its impact on our outlook or the timing of the outlook, there's no direct correlation, Dave. As we pointed out in the prepared remarks, it is driving some changes in customers' behavior where they are looking to diversify where they do their projects. and spend their capital and also consuming countries are looking to pursue their own reserves where possible and where applicable and also to diversify their source of supply. And this is what's driving a lot of activity in the offshore.

We've got a tremendous amount of inbound in terms of commercial inbound at this point working with clients to unlock new opportunities all around the world. So the timing issue in the $14.5 billion is really just a fact of what's going to fall within the calendar year of 2026 and what could tip over to 2027. In particular, we have 2 large -- 2 to 3 very large projects that we are just in the final stages of concluding. Expect those to conclude by year-end, but they could tip into the new year, but I wouldn't tie it to the macro, Dave.

John Anderson

I'm just curious, as we look before -- in the past, you -- I think on the prior call, you had talked about kind of more greenfield, larger greenfield projects next year. Curious on the complexity of those projects. And some of this brought up on another call. I was talking about the complexity of offshore projects and how that changes. Is that, I don't want to -- the iEPCI model, for the most part, I don't want to characterize this the wrong way, but tends to be kind of on the smaller side. As you go into larger projects, are they getting more complex? And by extension, does that mean there's more FTI revenue per tree, however you want to talk about it? And is that accretive to margins? Just kind of curious how to think about that trend.

Douglas Pferdehirt

Sure. So the complexity of a greenfield versus a brownfield is typically just around the geology -- from a subsea point of view and from what we do, we're somewhat agnostic if it's a greenfield or a brownfield or the location of it. I mean, it may change between oil reservoir and a gas reservoir, the type of tree system that we use, but our 2.0 configure-to-order architecture applies across the board. So where the greenfield comes in is just less knowledge that you have about the topography of the seabed, maybe less knowledge you have around the soil conditions. And clearly, less knowledge you have about the reservoir itself.

And that's why you see greenfield projects sometimes take a little longer to move forward because customers are diligently making sure that they understand the complexity of the geology that they're dealing with in the subsurface. But from our point of view, it doesn't make a big difference, Dave, with our customers moving towards a portfolio approach, both in greenfield and brownfield, as we pointed out last quarter, An example of that would be Equinor, how they're approaching their additional work that they're doing in the brownfield activity on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, where they're doing groups of projects at a time where we were very successful and very appreciative of the work we're doing with Equinor.

So for us, we can get the leverage in a brownfield as well as in a greenfield. And so one is not necessarily more interesting than the other, and both are ramping up because clearly, the shortest path to first oil was a brownfield development. Therefore, it tends to have the highest project returns, at least in the near term. So those are being pursued as vigorously as now many greenfield opportunities around the world.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Wilson with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Mark Wilson

Excellent results, again, congratulations on that. Alf, I would like to ask on one of the last comments you just mentioned talking about an incremental margin on Subsea approaching 50% in the coming years. Could we give a bit more detail on that? Are we talking about Subsea 2.0 awards iEPCI. And goodness me, it sounds very incremental. Some details, please.

Alf Melin

Yes. Thanks, Mark, for the question. So first of all, I don't think I commented on that this was beyond 2027, I think I specifically commented on' '27. But nevertheless, it's something that we are proud of in terms of what we are able to deliver. And it always starts with the quality of our backlog. And what we have done is continuously through 2026. As you can see from our continuous raises of revenue guidance, we have continued to demonstrate our ability to execute on this backlog. And we're doing so with increased throughput.

And when the throughput increases, we are also able to expand margins. So that's part of what you're seeing is really the underlying fundamentals of our quality of backlog, but our ongoing industrialization of our company. So whenever we have revenue increase year-over-year, we expect to have an outsized ability to expand our margins. And yes, that is through many different aspects, including increased mix of Subsea 2.0, iEPCI as well as making sure that our service business grows at least in line with our overall business. And all of those factors combined is what gives us the confidence to come out with this guidance at this point in time and indeed imply a 50% incremental margin into '27.

Mark Wilson

Could you talk about the capacity limits within that throughput, Alf. I think you've got 3 major producing manufacturing facilities around the world. What kind of utilization are we speaking to in that guidance? And then I'll hand it over.

Alf Melin

Yes. No. Clearly, one of the things that we have focused on in our model over the last -- operating model over the last couple of years is to be 2 things: capital-light as well as focusing on throughput rather than keep on thinking about what incremental CapEx do we need. We build our business down days around creating constraints and thereby driving our thinking for how you can solve problems within the existing footprint rather than automatically defaulting to capital expenditures. Sure, are we investing in certain technologies that will enhance the automation and the throughput of our facilities? Yes, on an ongoing basis.

But that's also where we have talked about before that we have demonstrated that, for instance, the Subsea 2.0 order can go through our manufacturing plants at a 2.5x what a normal 1.03 could do. These are the things that we continue to see demonstrate to ourselves on a daily basis as well as keep on investing in for the future. And with that said, at this moment in time, no real concerns for overall capacity.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan Securities LLC.

Arun Jayaram

Doug, my first question is I wanted to see if you could talk about what you're doing on accelerating cycle times. You mentioned kind of the Suriname project with Total. I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate a little bit on what's driving that? Is that just the shift to 2.0? And perhaps I'd love a mini update on what you're doing in terms of industrializing the installation process? Any updates on that would be helpful.

Douglas Pferdehirt

Sure, Arun. Thank you for the question. So what I was talking about on the GranMorgu project in Suriname was the delivery of some of the critical equipment, including the trees ahead of schedule -- this is a new market. This is the first project that's ever been done in that market. We have a track record of being very successful in entering into new markets and being the pioneer to bring Subsea into those markets. As a matter of fact, an impeccable track record. And this is just another example of that.

So it's about doing business the right way. It's about being on the ground in Suriname, knowing the people, knowing the support network that we have there, building the relationships early on. And then yes, the shift to Total energies to our Subsea 2.0 standard configurable product allowed us to have the deliveries not only on schedule but ahead of schedule, something that, quite frankly, is just very difficult for in the past for any subsea company to do. But certainly something that we are uniquely doing today, which is delivering projects ahead of schedule on even shorter cycle times than what has typically been done in the past.

So this all falls under the relentless pursuit of reduction of cycle time, Arun and something we continue to be very focused on.

Arun Jayaram

Got it. My follow-up, Doug, I wanted to talk a little bit about your inbound order commentary. The company had previously indicated confidence in delivering $10 billion of inbound orders in calendar '26. Is that still a good target? I know you mentioned 2 or 3 large projects that are still trying to get to the finish line. Is -- maybe just comment on that. And I guess the question is if there is slippage in that $10 billion target, is that just driven by just the timing of these contracts contracts that you thought you'd win?

Douglas Pferdehirt

Sure. So Arun, the short answer is yes, but I'll give you a little more color. It is 2 to 3 projects that awards that we're just going through those final stages. We're not -- I couldn't say with confidence coming on the call that they were going to land within the calendar year. They are still more likely than not going to land in the calendar year, delivering the approximately $10 billion of inbound for 2026. Just wanted to be realistic given the fact that the end of the year is fast approaching. And if they slipped into the following year to make sure that they were being properly accounted for in our inbound guidance, hence going to the $14.5 billion for the 5 quarters, simply an issue of timing.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alexa Breno with Goldman Sachs.

Unknown Analyst

We just wanted to ask at the early '27 color is very helpful. Could you help just frame it from a regional perspective? Where are you seeing opportunities across maybe Africa, North Sea, et cetera? And how should we think about it in that framework?

Douglas Pferdehirt

Yes. So good morning Alexa and team as well. The -- if we look at it geographically, it's -- we had said that there was -- the last decade was really being driven by South America. It was going to continue to be very strong, and the next decade will be driven by Africa and I would say largely that, that is still the case. So we'll see a tremendous amount of awards coming from South America, both Brazil Suriname, obviously, Guyana. So there's lots of activity going on, also some activity, potential activity in some neighboring countries, which may not hit in '27, but could hit beyond '27 and then you also have kind of the whole region between the northern part of Guyana and Venezuela, et cetera, that could get interesting, probably beyond 2027.

So South America remains a critical focus for us. We wish Petrobras continued success in their exploration that they're doing in the equatorial margin which is a different region than the pre-salt in Brazil and could be quite prolific as well. So lots of reasons to be -- continue to be excited about South America. Moving towards Africa. I mean it's just -- it's robust. It's robust in West Africa. It's robust in East Africa, and we're going to see continued activity in North Africa as well. So those regions are all regions that we are targeting and pursuing in our opportunity list as you can see that we publish and would probably therefore also be reflected as inbound opportunities at the same time.

Important, as I mentioned earlier, to mention the NCS or the Norwegian Continental Shelf, it continues to be quite robust by multiple operators that continue to move projects forward as they help supply energy security for Continental Europe. And then we talked about Asia, I think on the last couple of calls, we said, keep an eye out for places like Indonesia, and that's really coming to fruition now. But we have multiple tendering activities, and we are actually performing multiple projects in Indonesia at this time. And then Australia, Australia is a major LNG producer and exporter and they will be going through multiple rounds, including, as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, the Chevron Gorgon Stage 3 project, which is all brownfield projects to supply gas to the existing LNG infrastructure in Australia.

So a long answer to say that it really is heating up around the world. It really isn't region-specific. I want to throw in the Paleogene, I would be wrong not to in the U.S. Gulf. It continues to surprise to the upside in terms of activity. And we also made a note in the prepared remarks about a very important relationship and agreement that we signed with BP to be their exclusive provider for the 20,000 in the Paleogene. So really, it's ramping up. Geographically, it's ramping up quite broadly.

Unknown Analyst

That's very helpful. And then just a follow-up. As we look at the projects that are entering backlog today versus work being executed, can you give any color on how commercial terms or pricing are comparing? And then how should we think about margins thereafter?

Douglas Pferdehirt

No, it's an important question, Alexa, and I will -- I'm happy to share with you that new work or the inbound that we're putting in the backlog is accretive to the backlog margins. This is really because of the work that we're doing to help our customers be successful by reducing cycle time, improving their project economics, which allows us to share in a portion of that economic value that we create. So it's a true win-win.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

Scott Gruber

Doug, you mentioned that the step-up in Subsea orders is here. I'm curious whether that step-up that you see into '27 and we'll ignore the timing issues around year-end. But is that volume step-up within the ballpark of what you would have expected at the start of the year? Or has that gotten better given the macro backdrop? I'm asking because earlier this week, an offshore driller suggested they hadn't seen much of a cyclical response yet. So I'm wondering your perspective on that and whether the secular trend is really going to dominate here and the macro will help essentially extend that trend rather than add a material cyclical element to the order cadence. So just curious your thoughts on that.

Douglas Pferdehirt

Sure, Scott. As I've said in the past, I'm not a driller, I don't drill. So I don't want to speak on their behalf. And I've also made it a point to emphasize as has proven to be the case, we're a leading indicator when you look at the offshore and the deepwater. Our projects are typically awarded 1 to 2 years before the drillers get a tender or get an ITT. So just keep that in the back of your mind. But to more specifically answer your question, I do see this as a structural change. I don't see this as a cyclical change. It's not being driven by any particular event.

Yes, as I pointed out, due to some of the geopolitical events that are happening around the world, it is driving customers' choices of where they spend their capital, and it's also driving host nations or the consumers to decide where they acquire their energy from. So I do think that there's an attribute of that embedded, but I certainly don't think that that's the primary driver. This is a structural change that we've been talking about for years. It was coming. It's a result of the ability that we've been able to demonstrate through iEPCI and Subsea 2.0 to be able to help our customers improve the economics of offshore developments. And it's not just the upfront economics, it's the delivered economics.

Often, the upfront economics worked on paper, but what was delivered was often over schedule and over budget. We have a consistent track record of delivering on schedule or ahead of schedule, giving our customers the benefit of accelerated time to first oil and improved project economics. So in other words, their confidence in moving their capital towards the offshore is back, and I don't see it moving -- I don't see it changing as a result of any other geological play that's out there in the world today. And it's really because the best reservoirs, barring some reservoirs in the Middle East are offshore. And those are the ones that they have access to. So you have high-quality reservoirs with very solid economics. You just needed to know that you could work with companies that shared the commitment to delivering these projects on time and at the economic -- and at an economic rate that made them successful. This is why you see our customers buying behavior changing.

The fact that 80%, 8-0, 80% of our business is being direct awarded to our company. It's not going out to a competitive tender. The fact that our customers are booking us multiple projects at a time, not just one, but today's project plus tomorrow's plus the next day's project, because they want to ensure that they have access to the innovation that we're driving in the subsea industry, all supported and important to say by the way that we work. And we were very, very pleased to receive the award we received from Petrobras identifying us as their top ESG company that they work with. How you do business is as important as what you do. So look, this is, as we're calling it, a sustained wave of activity. It's just where capital is flowing. And the capital is flowing to the offshore for economic reasons. It's flowing to the offshore for energy security reasons, and it's flowing to the offshore because our customers have confidence that we can bring these projects to completion for them in a positive way.

Scott Gruber

I appreciate the color. It makes a ton of sense. And my follow-up is on margins for next year. Is there much benefit from the next phase of the iEPCI 2.0 initiative, the SERP portion? Is there much benefit from that hitting in the in the '27 margin guidance? Or is that still kind of more to come?

Douglas Pferdehirt

Scott, I'm smiling, Scott, because I thought this question was going to come up a lot earlier in the queue. So thank you for bringing it up. And look, I am actually going to pivot back to Mark's question earlier, when he acknowledged the phenomena, well, I think in his own words, I think he said strong performance in terms of a 50% incremental margin. That's something you don't expect in the industry from the companies that you follow and Alf explained why that was your follow-up is a perfect follow-up to that question because I will tell you in that 50% incremental margin, we're not counting on the iEPCI 2.0 contribution. So imagine that. Imagine you just imagine that, Scott. So it is more to come.

And I'm not saying that we won't see some of -- we won't be talking more about iEPCI 2.0. Obviously, we'll continue to provide updates I can tell you it's moving very well. We continue to have strong success in the testing that we're doing and in the field trials that we're doing. So it's moving in the right direction. But no, we did not embed that and I'm not saying that would necessarily be upside to 2027. But as you look at 2027 and beyond, that's a whole another wave of margin contribution that you're not -- that we are not experiencing today.

And as importantly, and I always like to talk about a win-win. It's a whole another wave of cycle time reduction that our customers aren't experiencing today. So they're going to win because we're going to continue to drive down cycle time simplify the complexity that remains in the nonindustrialized portion of the subsea offering, which will be addressed in our iEPCI 2.0 offering, giving them much improved project economics and allowing us to continue to share in the value in that economic value that we create.

Scott Gruber

Well, thanks. And every once in a while, we do see 50% incrementals. We just don't see people sustain it. for multiple years. So congrats on that. And I'll turn it back.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Silverstein with UBS.

Joshua Silverstein

Maybe just sticking on the margin front here, really strong margins of the past 2 quarters. outside of normal seasonality, is there some sort of expected big drop off in the fourth quarter? Or is there some sort of margin headwinds or mix change? Because it seems like you're already trending to the bottom half of the 2027 guide just based on the normal seasonality.

Alf Melin

No, you shouldn't read too much into this. This is normal seasonality. We -- in the fourth quarter, we experienced a lower activity in -- particularly in places like the North Sea. We do take our vessel portions of our vessel fleet into maintenance and dry docking. And those things affect utilization, but it's actually timed with the fact that there is lower activity going on. So that is really the main reason of why you're seeing this. And there is nothing specifically pronounced about it more than that activity is going on in the fourth quarter.

Joshua Silverstein

Got it. And then you guys have specifically highlighted kind of a customer shift towards this portfolio-based offshore development approach. You talked about the Petronas collaboration, the BP MOU there. Where are you seeing customers adopt this portfolio-wide development versus the individual projects? And how does that change your kind of view on visibility in pricing and market share?

Douglas Pferdehirt

Josh, I would say -- I would put it this way. I think every client is thinking about it. Not every client has a portfolio right? Clients have different sets of opportunities. So it's maybe more applicable for some clients than others. And I think every one of them is considering it, just I can say that because of the discussions that we're having with them. It's really -- it's applicable anywhere where they have the visibility in the portfolio within their own scope of assets to be able to approach the market in this way. So you see it in mature basins. Because there tends to be more assets available within those mature basins. But then you also see it occurring in emerging basins, like the Paleogene is in the emerging basin.

So there, you had BP take a very proactive approach. We're seeing it in greenfield and brownfield, again, pointing to Equinor on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, who's doing it with their brownfield portfolio. So it really is, and we have clients that are doing it not just within 1 basin because of Subsea 2.0 being a configure-to-order or more standardized product, we have customers who have multiple assets in multiple geographies approaching us in a portfolio approach across geography because the core of the Subsea 2.0 configure-to-order system is standardized, so they're able to do that. So this -- the technology is enabling this type of buying behavior. But I also think our performance is enabling this type of buying behavior because a customer is not going to entrust you with multiple projects in the future if they don't think you're going to perform well on the project you're going today.

And if we're being honest with ourselves, the industry didn't have a great track record in the past. And when you're still in a 1.0 world and still doing work the old way, you haven't transformed as TechnipFMC has, it's hard to be predictable in your execution performance. It's just hard. You're in a bespoke world. You have -- you're doing many, many first articles. It's really, really hard to have that level of consistency. So I think it's a combination of the customers' behavior, their asset base and their behavior, our performance and our technology that is enabling this approach. But I will tell you, it's very favorable for both parties. And again, we believe in a win-win. We don't believe we have to win at our customers' demise. And it's important for us that our customers continue to win because we want offshore to continue to be strong.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Marc Bianchi with Cowen. Please go ahead.

Marc Bianchi

Thank you. Doug, appreciate the expectation for the step-up here in the orders. If I look at the year-to-date orders, they've trended, I think, below certainly what we would have expected, perhaps what you were expecting. Is there anything you can point to thematically that was maybe affecting some of the order conversion over the course of this year that you see changing? I don't know one thing I have in mind is, obviously, there's this war going on and maybe folks are dragging their feet a bit. But just anything thematic that you would point to?

Douglas Pferdehirt

No, Mark, actually, if you go back, I guess, probably about a year ago now, back in 2025, we said that 2026 was going to be a bunch of smaller awards. And just think about it statistically, a bunch of smaller awards, harder to predict the exact timing of those awards. So really, it's just been a timing issue. You see it in our -- again, this quarter, 3 [indiscernible] awards, but $2.1 billion of inbound. So lots of unannounced awards, which just means there's been a lot of smaller awards.

I think last quarter or 2 quarters ago, I pointed to the fact that 2027, we were going to start to see some of the larger orders really through the end of the decade, and those are shaping up as I was responding to Alex's question earlier. So -- it was really just a mix of the type of opportunities that we've been chasing. The team has been working really hard. We've been very successful. It's just a bunch of smaller awards and therefore, they tend to spread out a bit more on you.

Marc Bianchi

Okay. And then the other one I have is on looking at 27% and the subsea revenue guidance, it's about a 5% increase. And I'm curious that makes perfect sense, just given the backlog scheduling you have. But I was wondering about the services piece of that because I think over the past couple of years, you've said that's going to grow in line with broader subsea revenue, which is kind of like a double-digit rate. Is services still growing at that double-digit rate in the '27 outlook that you provided?

Douglas Pferdehirt

So again, I think at this point in time, and we'll obviously be able to provide further updates as the year goes on. But I think it's I think it's a reasonable assumption to continue to look at services growing kind of in line with the growth of the overall segment at this point in time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Victoria McCulloch with RBC. Please go ahead.

Victoria McCulloch

I guess my question actually is a good follow-on from that previous one. Because when you look at the contribution that services has been that have certainly taken, I guess, got some highlighted in today's results. How does the magnitude of the contribution and the margin profile of the services contribution compared to where you expect to be 12 months ago?

Douglas Pferdehirt

Good question, Victoria. I don't know that it's much different than what we had expected. We have a -- it's an OEM model as you know. And so we have a lot of visibility into our services profile. It is more of a book in turn than a backlog business, but it's still -- because it's an OEM model, we service our equipment. We have standard maintenance programs for that. So we're able to predict it fairly well. So I don't know that there's anything necessarily unusual. We did see, for instance, a strong pickup in our well intervention business in the third quarter.

So that's something that could be -- that we could potentially see more of as we move forward, where customers are really trying to optimize their existing wellbores. And the way that -- one way they can do that is with a drilling rig. The other way is to use one of our service vessels to be able to do that. So we are seeing an uptick there. But I wouldn't say anything that particularly stands of Victoria. It's a very good, very solid, very sustainable and a strong margin contribution business for us and one that we continue to invest in and grow.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Derek Podhaizer with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Derek Podhaizer

I know you've been talking about this throughout the course of the call, but maybe if this is a nuance, but something that picked up on in the release was you talked about the strength extending beyond the decade with this wave of activity. And I feel like previously you've talked about straight towards the end of the decade, again, maybe pretty nuanced. But could you help unpack that comment for us, just a reflection of the continued momentum that you've seen over the past 2 years? Or again, has anything changed recently to extend your visibility beyond the end of the decade?

Douglas Pferdehirt

Thank you, Derek, and look, the biggest thing that is driving our confidence to make that -- and you're right, it was a pivot in terms of the terminology that we've been using is the portfolio approach. I mean, a project today is going to be delivered sometime just prior to the end of the decade. So when you're talking about a portfolio approach and where customers are buying multiple projects in series from us, another way of saying that is beyond the end of the decade. So that's what's giving us greater confidence.

And as I mentioned a couple of times on the call, we are seeing customers potentially reconsider the allocation of their capital and looking at offshore, both from the ability to be able to replenish reserves, the economics that are there now and the certainty that we are providing them as mentioned earlier, as well as wanting to have maybe a more diversified distribution of their capital geographically. And we're also seeing host nations really driving to pursue their own hydrocarbon reserves for their own energy security. You see that a lot in Asia as an example. We mentioned an award from Petronas in Malaysia. We talked about Indonesia earlier on the call et cetera.

So it's kind of -- it's a combination of those things, Derek, that are just making it increasingly visible to us that this activity we're either booking beyond the end of the decade already or we see a clear path to do so. And I'm going to go all the way back to Scott's comment, this isn't the best we can do. We still have 2/3 of our subsea infrastructure or the subsea project that we've not industrialized yet. That's what we're working on. That's what we'll be called iEPCI 2.0 that's going to bring a whole another wave of improvement in economics for our clients and for TechnipFMC.

Derek Podhaizer

That's great and very helpful. And I know you've are been asked about the iEPCI 2.0, I just mentioned and get. I think the other upcoming catalysts that you leave a little breadcrumbs for us is around your partnerships with some of these startups that are looking to move markets from the onshore to the Subsea. Just wanted to give you an opportunity if there's any updates there? Or still this is more of a stay-tuned event?

Douglas Pferdehirt

No, that's clearly happening today. And there was a couple of articles recently. I don't want to comment on them because they were in the media, but I don't know that they were necessarily press release from the client. But they're out there in the public domain where there are independent operators that are coming to TechnipFMC and a direct award as a result of our iEPCI and our Subsea 2.0 offering and their belief, again, that we will continue to drive this industrialization and innovation for the industry as we go forward.

So as mentioned previously in years past, our total client mix was between 9 and 12 clients a year, and we now service anywhere from 30 to 40 clients in any given year. And that market, they continue to expand the market as well as they bring fresh capital into the market.

Operator

We have reached the end of the call. I'll now turn the call back to Matt for closing remarks.

Matt Seinsheimer

Thank you, Matt. This concludes our conference call. A replay of the call will be available on our website beginning at approximately 3:00 p.m. New York time today. If you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out to the Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining us. Matt, you may now end the call.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.