Community Financial Systems (CBU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call: Record Operating EPS, NIM Rises

Community Financial Systems, Inc. (NYSE: CBU) reported record quarterly operating results for Q3 2026, supported by net interest margin expansion, organic loan growth and stronger fee-based businesses. Management nevertheless expects loan growth to moderate in Q4 due to seasonal consumer trends, higher borrowing rates and larger commercial loan payoffs.

Key Takeaways

• GAAP diluted EPS was $1.16, up 11.5% year over year and unchanged sequentially. Operating diluted EPS reached a record $1.27, rising 16.5% year over year and 9.5% quarter over quarter.
• Fully tax-equivalent net interest margin increased 7 basis points sequentially to 3.56%, while the cost of funds declined 2 basis points to 1.16%.
• Ending loans increased $235.2 million, or 2.1%, during the quarter and $767.8 million, or 7.1%, from a year earlier. Management revised full-year loan growth guidance to 5%-5.5%.
• Operating noninterest revenue rose 10.2% year over year and 9.3% sequentially. It represented 38% of total operating revenue, highlighting the company’s diversified business mix.
• Wealth Management revenue increased 41% year over year, while Insurance Services revenue rose 8.9%. Employee Benefit Services revenue grew 5.6%, but legal costs related to new fund launches pressured profitability.
• Management now expects full-year net interest income growth of 11%-11.5% and expects net interest margin to exit 2026 in the mid- to high-3.5% range.

Core Financial Data

Business and Operating Performance

Banking

Banking produced record revenue and profitability, with growth in commercial and consumer lending. The commercial pipeline remained strong, but management cautioned against extrapolating Q3 growth because larger commercial payoffs are expected in Q4.

Blended loan originations were priced at approximately 6.6%. Commercial lending was generally priced in the high-6% range, while mortgage rates in the high-7% range were affecting demand. Management also expects limited auto loan growth because pricing remains less attractive despite some improvement.

Deposits benefited from seasonal municipal inflows in September. Year-over-year deposit growth included $543.7 million from the Santander branch acquisition and $120.1 million from ClearPoint Trust. The company’s de novo branches had gathered approximately $175 million in deposits, approaching management’s roughly $200 million objective.

Balance Sheet Positioning

The company sold $296.8 million of lower-yielding U.S. Treasury securities on August 3 and used the proceeds to reduce higher-cost overnight borrowings. Management described the transaction as positive on a net-present-value basis. It contributed approximately 3 basis points to Q3 net interest margin expansion.

More than $600 million of securities are scheduled to mature in 2027. Management expects those cash flows to support loan growth, repay approximately $150 million of maturing borrowings and reduce reliance on higher-cost deposits. The company’s longer-term objective is to bring securities closer to the high-teens to 20% of total assets.

Wealth Management

Wealth Management revenue increased 41% year over year, and pretax earnings rose 42%. Results benefited from organic performance, higher market values and the ClearPoint acquisition.

ClearPoint contributed $2.1 million of noninterest revenue in Q3 and $2.9 million year to date. Management also reported early cross-service opportunities between ClearPoint and the banking business.

Insurance Services

Insurance Services revenue rose 8.9% year over year, while expenses were broadly flat. Pretax earnings increased 41%. Management said the insurance acquisition pipeline remained robust, although potential transactions were not included in reported results or current guidance.

Employee Benefit Services

Employee Benefit Services revenue increased 5.6% year over year, but pretax earnings declined 3.5%. The decrease primarily reflected elevated start-up legal costs associated with new collective investment trust fund launches.

Management Guidance

Management expects Q4 loan growth to slow because of seasonal weakness in consumer lending, reduced mortgage and auto demand at higher rates, and larger commercial loan payoffs. For Q4, the company expects net interest margin to expand by approximately 1-3 basis points, including the return of FRB and FHLB dividends.

The expense outlook includes approximately $8 million-$9 million of incremental costs from the Santander branches and approximately $4 million-$5 million of other incremental expenses, nonoperating intangible asset amortization and certain one-time items. Pending or future acquisitions are excluded.

For 2027, management expects robust double-digit Wealth Management growth, assuming unchanged market values, and is using approximately 7% growth for Employee Benefit Services planning purposes. Excluding acquisitions, organic expense growth of roughly 4%-5% is expected to remain the company’s planning range.

Risks and Watch Items

• Higher market rates could further reduce mortgage and auto demand while increasing pressure on deposit pricing.
• Q4 loan growth could be affected by the timing of commercial loan closings and larger expected payoffs.
• Nonperforming loans increased 2 basis points sequentially, while loans 30-89 days delinquent rose 9 basis points. Management said overall asset quality remained strong relative to the industry.
• Net charge-offs increased by 6 basis points sequentially, including $2.7 million tied to two individually assessed business lending relationships with previously established specific allowances.
• Employee Benefit Services profitability remains affected by legal expenses related to new fund launches.
• Wealth Management and part of Employee Benefit Services are exposed to changes in market values.

Analyst Q&A Highlights

• Commercial lending: Management described the commercial pipeline as strong and comparable with the prior quarter. Q4 growth will depend partly on whether originations can offset known larger payoffs.
• Capital deployment: Organic growth remains the first priority, followed by acquisitions. Share repurchases are opportunistic, with recent purchases made at an average price in the low-$60s. Bank M&A opportunities were described as limited, while insurance acquisition activity remained stronger.
• 2027 securities maturities: Management may accelerate selected maturities only when transactions generate positive net present value. Proceeds would primarily fund loans, reduce borrowings or limit the need for expensive deposits.
• Geographic expansion: Management reported encouraging performance across New England, Pennsylvania and established upstate New York markets. Syracuse market share increased from roughly 7% to more than 9% over three years.
• Semiconductor-related activity: Direct Micron-related lending represented only a small portion of the commercial pipeline. Management is seeing more activity among construction, engineering, warehousing and other secondary suppliers, with potential longer-term benefits for both loans and deposits.
• AI and deposit competition: Management acknowledged that agentic AI could reduce friction in moving deposits. However, it argued that the company’s operating-account focus, average account size of approximately $12,000, branch presence and customer emphasis on trust and accountability may limit exposure relative to institutions holding more investment-oriented deposits.

Full Earnings Call Transcript

Complete Earnings Call Transcript

Management Remarks

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Community Financial Systems, Inc.'s Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this event is being recorded and discussion may contain forward-looking statements within the provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on current expectations estimates and projections about the industry, markets and economic environment in which the company operates. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed. Refer to the company's SEC filings, including the Risk Factors section for more details. Discussion may also include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the company's earnings release.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Dimitar Karaivanov, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

Dimitar Karaivanov

Thank you, Chloe. Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. Our company performed very well in the third quarter. As expected, our results accelerated with operating diluted earnings per share increasing 16.5% year-over-year and 9.5% quarter-over-quarter, representing our sixth consecutive quarter of record results. Record revenues and profitability in banking, recurrent revenues and profitability in insurance services, record revenues and profitability and wealth management services. [indiscernible] revenue performance in Employee Benefit Services which was challenged by elevated expenses due to start-up legal costs associated with a number of new fund launches in our collective investment trust business.

A couple of items of note. Wealth Management revenue was up 41% year-over-year and pretax earnings were up 42%, driven by both very strong organic performance and the addition of ClearPoint -- we remain very excited about the opportunities ClearPoint is providing us, and we are already seeing tangible client cross-service opportunities with banking. Insurance services revenue was up 8.9% year-over-year, while keeping expenses basically flat, resulting in pretax earnings growth of 41%. As previously mentioned, the M&A activity is really strong, and these results do not yet incorporate the more sizable opportunities we're working on this quarter should they come to fruition.

Employee Benefit Services revenue was up 5.6% year-over-year, while pretax earnings were down 3.5% predominantly due to the aforementioned legal expenses. Banking had a very strong quarter with both margin expansion and organic growth. Commercial and consumer lending were all strong. Deposits experienced typical seasonal fluctuations, while liquidity and credit remains a source of strength. I would expect some seasonal slowdown in consumer lending in Q4, plus the impact on demand of higher rates in mortgage and auto lending. The commercial pipeline remains strong, but we also expect some larger payoffs so I wouldn't extrapolate from Q3.

As noted, we pulled forward our December securities maturities as we took advantage of the shape of the curve and our own liquidity needs and produced a positive net present value transaction. In addition, we believe that this illustrates the positive dynamics embedded in our balance sheet with over $600 million of securities maturities coming due in 2027.

I will now pass it to Marya for more details.

Marya Wlos

Thank you, Dimitar, and good morning, all. As Dimitar noted, the company's operating performance accelerated in the third quarter. GAAP earnings per share of $1.16 increased $0.12 or 11.5% from the third quarter of the prior year and was consistent with linked second quarter results, including the loss on sales of investment securities recognized in the third quarter in connection with our decision to pull forward our December investment security maturity. Operating earnings per share and operating pretax preprovision net revenue per share were record quarterly results for the company.

Operating earnings per share were $1.27 in the third quarter, as compared to $1.09, 1 year prior and $1.16 in the linked second quarter. Third quarter operating PPNR per share of $1.77 increased $0.21 from 1 year prior and increased $0.15 on a linked-quarter basis. These record operating results were driven by a new quarterly high for net interest income and operating noninterest revenues. The company's noninterest income was $143.5 million in the third quarter. This represents a $4.4 million or 3.2% increase over the linked second quarter and a $15.4 million or 12% improvement over the third quarter of 2025 and marks the tenth consecutive quarter of net interest income expansion.

The company's fully tax equivalent net interest margin increased 7 basis points from 3.49% and in the linked second quarter to 3.56% in the third quarter, reflective of higher interest earning asset yields and lower funding costs. The increases in net interest income and net interest margin included the accretive impact of the paydown of higher cost overnight borrowings using proceeds from the August 3 sale of $296.8 million of lower-yielding U.S. treasury securities. During the quarter, the company's cost of funds was 1.16% and a decrease of 2 basis points from the prior quarter, primarily driven by lower deposit costs.

Operating noninterest revenues increased $8 million or 10.2% compared to the prior year's third quarter and increased $7.4 million or 9.3% from the linked second quarter. The quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year decreases in operating noninterest revenues was reflective of increases in employee benefit services, wealth management services, insurance services and banking noninterest revenues.

Our recent acquisition of ClearPoint Trust contributed $2.1 million of noninterest revenue during the third quarter and $2.9 million year-to-date. Operating noninterest revenues represented 38% of total operating revenues during the third quarter, a metric that continuously emphasizes the diversification of our businesses. The company recorded a $5.6 million provision for credit losses during the third quarter. This was consistent with the prior year's third quarter and compares to $4.6 million in the linked second quarter.

During the third quarter, the company recorded $141 million in total noninterest expenses, an increase of $3.3 million or 2.4% and from the linked second quarter, an increase of $12.7 million or 9.9% from the prior year's third quarter. The increase from the linked second quarter was due in part to a $1.5 million increase in salaries and employee benefits, driven by 1 additional payroll day and incremental expenses associated with ClearPoint as well as a onetime $0.8 million consulting expense related to the renegotiation of a debit card branding contract. $7.4 million of the increase in total noninterest expenses from the third quarter of 2025 was attributed to salaries and employee benefits primarily due to the incremental costs associated with acquisitions completed between the periods, higher performance-based incentive compensation and medical costs along with the impact of annual merit-based increases.

Occupancy and equipment expenses increased $2.6 million from the prior year's third quarter, driven by incremental costs associated with the opening of 7 de novo branches and 3 regional headquarters over the last 12 months along with the 7 branches acquired from Santander in the prior year's fourth quarter. Excluding operating expenses related to acquisitions completed in the last 12 months, Year-to-date, operating noninterest expenses increased $18.7 million or 5.1% from the same prior year period. Ending loans increased $235.2 million or 2.1% during the third quarter and increased $767.8 million or 7.1% from 1 year prior. The increases reflected organic growth in the overall business and consumer funding portfolio.

The company's ending total deposits increased $808.3 million or 5.7% from 1 year prior and increased $154.7 million or 1.1% from June 30, 2026. The increase in total deposits during the third quarter was primarily reflective of seasonal inflows of municipal deposits in September. The increase in total deposits over the past 12 months included $543.7 million of deposits assumed from the Santander branch acquisition and $120.1 million of deposits assumed from the ClearPoint acquisition.

Moving on to asset quality. The nonperforming loans ratio increased 2 basis points and the loans 30 to 89 days delinquent ratio increased 9 basis points from last quarter, but remained strong compared to the industry. The net charge-off ratio increased 6 basis points from the linked second quarter due to $2.7 million of charge-offs recognized in the third quarter of 2022 and on 2 individually assessed business lending relationships for which specific allowance allocations had previously been established. The company's allowance for credit losses was $92 million or 80 basis points of total loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter, an increase of $0.3 million during the quarter. The allowance for credit losses at the end of the third quarter represented approximately 7x the company's trailing 12-month net charge-offs. Looking forward, we believe the company's diversified revenue profile, strong liquidity and historically good asset quality, provide a solid foundation for continued earnings growth.

With that, I would like to provide an update to our expectations for full year 2026 as we enter into the fourth quarter. We continue to expect 3% to 4% growth in deposit balances. 6% to 7% growth in noninterest revenues and an effective tax rate between 23% and 24%. As Dimitar noted, we expect loan growth to moderate in the fourth quarter, driven by some seasonal slowdown in consumer lending as well as some larger commercial loan payoffs. As a result, we now expect full year 2026 loan growth of 5% to 5.5%. We expect the full year 2026 provision for credit losses to be in the range of $22 million to $25 million. Factoring in the accretive impact of the August sale of $296.8 million of lower-yielding U.S. treasury securities we now expect 11% to 11.5% growth in net interest income and for net interest margin to exit 2026 in the mid- to high 3.5% range. Near-term margin pressure is possible if higher market rates dampened loan demand and pressure deposit rates.

Core noninterest expenses are expected to be in the range of $553 million to $557 million or an increase of 7% to 8% from 2025. This includes approximately $8 million to $9 million of incremental expenses associated with the branches acquired from Santander and approximately $4 million to $5 million of incremental expenses including nonoperating intangible asset amortization and the impact of certain onetime items. These estimates do not include the impact of pending or future acquisitions.

That concludes my prepared earnings comments, and Dimitar and I will now take questions. Chloe, I will now turn it back to you to open the line. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Steve Moss with Raymond James.

Question-and-Answer Session

Stephen Moss

Maybe start off on loans here. Just kind of curious, I hear you on moderation in auto and mortgage. Just curious with regard to how to think about the commercial loan pipeline and what you're seeing for strength or weakness there just given larger costs.

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. Steve. The pipeline is strong. It is pretty comparable to where it was last quarter, which means that it's close to its Primark. Activity is solid. So there's really -- just in terms of origination, there's really nothing to be concerned about. We just know that we've got a couple of larger payoffs, which is not the worst thing that can happen to a loan. So we're going to absorb those and we're going to replace them in the fourth quarter. And depending on timing, depending on closings, we feel that the ranges we provided is the operating range.

Stephen Moss

Got it. And then also just curious, what are you guys seeing for loan pricing these days and competition in the market?

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. So I think in the last couple of months, our blended originations have been right around 6.6%, and this is kind of across all portfolios. We talked about earlier this year that the pricing and auto was just frankly silly and we didn't participate as much -- it's gotten a little bit better. It's not exactly where we want it to be, but it's a little bit better. So we're not probably going to see much growth in that side of the house. mortgages are certainly -- you're seeing things in high 7s and even and mortgage products that has an impact on demand -- we've seen that. I think it's across the board. I'm confident we're going to do better than most other folks. We are very purchase-focused shop, and we have multiple products and solutions for folks. But ultimately, the payment does go up as rates go up. So that will be quieter than expected, certain the pipeline is lower than it was kind of at the end of the second quarter, and it's not also the best season for for mortgages.

And then on the commercial side, I think trending kind of in the high 6s, we've had to reintroduce #7 in certain situations. It is competitive, but we feel like we've got a very nice broad footprint and multiple products to be successful and originate a good pace.

Stephen Moss

Okay. Great. Appreciate all that color there. And then maybe just on the fee-based businesses. Dimitar, you hinted at the potential acquisitions -- just kind of curious, is there any particular line of business you guys are maybe more focused on at the moment for acquisitions? Or any color you could shed there?

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. Our acquisition pipeline is robust as it relates to insurance, in particular. And we've talked about this a little bit from the prior calls. This year, while the organic growth has been challenged for multiple reasons. We've both seen some kind of sanity return in terms of pricing on the MA side. And we've made up some ground year-to-date. We were down in the first quarter of almost 10% year-over-year. We narrowed down to 6.5%. Now we're kind of in the low 3% year-over-year, and we think we've got good opportunities to continue both on the M&A side and the organic side in the fourth quarter and narrow that gap. So I mentioned last quarter that if everything that we're working on transpires we're going to be very well positioned for 2017 on the insurance side. And knock on wood, I think we're still on very good track there for robust growth in '27.

Operator

The next question comes from David Konrad with KBW.

David Konrad

Quarter. A lot to talk about the balance sheet and maybe embedded in your NIM guide for the fourth quarter. I mean, it looks like on an average basis, you brought cash down, which may have may have helped funding costs, but now post-security sales, cash is pretty elevated versus last quarter. So I guess the first question is what do you think the use of cash will be in the fourth quarter? And then maybe also, what do you anticipate the deposit beta being?

Dimitar Karaivanov

David. So I think what you're seeing on the balance sheet as it relates to the cash position, it's really more driven by the seasonality that we have in terms of predominantly in the municipal side of our deposit base -- there is some seasonality clearly also in the general deposit basis, people spend money for vacations during the third quarter. So Usually, in the third quarter, we see the kind of the -- some of those personal deposits flow out and certainly the municipal deposits flow out in the third quarter. then they come back at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth quarter as people are making their payments across our footprint. So that's really what's driven that cash position. We talked last call that we expect it to be in a higher wholesale borrowing position that didn't transpire during the quarter to your point because we sold off some of our security maturities -- so we funded that position and growth during the quarter for our securities portfolio.

And then in terms of beta, David, really hard to tell. -- it's very early. This is the kind of the -- I don't know if we're going to have more rate hikes. Is this going to be 1 and done. It's going to be a couple, when they're going to happen. I think just in terms of how we've been approaching it throughout the year, you can see we have driven costs down as we've optimized volume versus rate -- on the deposit side, we certainly have a lot of strength in our liquidity position to allow us to do that. We have reengaged a little bit on some of the CDs this quarter -- so that might push the numbers up a little bit. We'll see we're by far not the most aggressive person in that market, but it's higher than before. At the same time, we kind of on the core accounts, we haven't really touched any rates -- so very hard to tell how it's going to shake out during this quarter.

David Konrad

Okay. And then second question with the going into next year with the $600 million of cash flows off the bond book. Would that be more -- would you more like to optimize that and the loan -- funding loan growth and maybe further reducing borrowings? And I guess, remind me where you would prefer securities any assets fee as a target?

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes, I think if you just kind of look at what our balance sheet needs are, we would probably target to have securities to assets closer to kind of high teens to 20% as opposed to where they are today. So as you can do the math, that's a lot of securities current on the balance sheet that will be used in much more productive ways going forward. As it relates to the maturities in 2027, we have about $150 million of borrowings that are going to mature as well. [indiscernible] be borrowings kind of in the middle of the year. So that will be a use for some of those cash flows, certainly loan growth.

And just to provide a little bit more color on how we think about what we did this quarter versus opportunities going forward in terms of accelerating some of those maturities. It has to be a positive present value transaction for us, right? So if you think about what we did in August, -- we had 5 months left on those treasuries until they mature. So in other words, can we do cash flows sooner than the $3 million loss and the math just worked and actually got even better as rates went up. So we think that open period is much tighter than the 5 months of maturity. So if we have similar opportunities in 2027. We're certainly going to keep an open eye towards those to fund growth and maybe not have to be as active on some of the more pricey deposit side.

Operator

The next question comes from Manuel Navas with Piper Sandler.

Manuel Navas

So you have deposits coming from ClearPoint Santander over the year. You had some seasonality this quarter. How has the de novo branches doing? Can you just have a kind of an update there and what type of costs are coming in from there. [Technical Difficulty]

Operator

Pardon ladies and gentlemen, it appears we have lost the connection to our speaker line. Please standby while we reconnect. Thank you. Pardon me, I have rejoined our speakers. You may begin again.

Dimitar Karaivanov

Okay. Thank you, Chloe. Apologies, everybody, we got disconnected somehow. Manuel, you we were just in the midst of your question, so sorry for that.

Manuel Navas

Sorry. So I was kind of asking for an update on the de novo branches. You've seen a lot of that year-over-year deposit growth was Santander and ClearPoint -- just kind of wanted to 0 in on how the Denovo branches are doing? What's kind of the deposit costs there? Any kind of update there?

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. So on the de novo branches, as of basically yesterday, we said that roughly $175 million in deposits in those. So we're very encouraged -- we've mentioned previously that our goal for here was to get to $200 million. And I think we're going to have a pretty good shot of being somewhere around there. The majority of the deposits in those branches have been and continue to be and likely will be for a little bit commercially focused. So I don't have the exact number, Manuel on costs, but you can imagine that some of those are higher cost than the traditional retail. The retail is going to build over time. But more importantly, as we look at our aggregate deposit costs, you've seen those have continued to come down.

Manuel Navas

All right. That's great. You gave a little bit of color that the insurance business is catching up. You have some M&A possibilities there all kind of drive to potentially a better outlook for next year in insurance. Can you just talk through employee benefit services and wealth management into next year as well?

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. So I'll start with Wealth Management. The -- we have a couple of things going on there, right? So on the organic side, we have tailwinds from just market values. So that's been positive, and that continues to help. At the same time, we're very focused on new advisory sales in the business. in the past 3 years, and I'm including this year, kind of as a projection, we've been running somewhere between $750 million and $1 billion of new advisory sales in the business. So that's a strong tailwind kind of purely organically -- and then you have ClearPoint, which this year is only going to impact us for basically kind of 2 quarters and a month.

And next year, we're going to have the benefit of that for the full year -- and certainly, they're doing better than we expected them to do as well. So I expect that next year in Wealth Management, assuming no change in market values, which is a very big assumption and likely incorrect because they're going to go up, whether they're going to go down. We're going to have a robust double-digit growth in Wealth Management in 2027. As it relates to the employee benefit services, recalling that business, roughly half of the exposure is to market as well. and half of it is tied to basically a number of participants that we take care of -- across the country. We're just about 1 million of those folks that we take care of across the country. And that number for us grow somewhere in the low single digits, somewhere 3% to 4%. So if you kind of add the market performance on the other half of the business, you get to a blended rate that we expect every year to be kind of in the high single digits, somewhere around 7% for plant purposes for 27

Manuel Navas

I really appreciate that. Shifting gears for a moment. What's roughly the average price on the share repurchase? And where does that kind of fit in with capital deployment with the fee businesses that you're looking at? And any thoughts on bank M&A and, of course, kind of the pace of the buyback?

Dimitar Karaivanov

Sure. So we've been, I think, this year, this past quarter as well, our average price has been in the low 60s kind of right around where we are today. we're a very profitable company. We generate a lot of capital. We don't really have a predetermined pace of buybacks. It is opportunistic -- it is clearly dependent on the price. It is dependent on what our priorities we have. Our #1 priority is always organic growth. So we have to fund that. in the bank. That means that we're funding balance sheet growth. So there is a -- for every dollar we make in the bank, roughly half of it stays on the balance sheet and equity to support the growth.

In the other businesses, really, it's through the P&L. So you'll see certain quarters, there's going to be a little bit more movement, but that's our capital deployment on the expense side is really investing through the P&L in the nonbanking businesses. So that's always prior number 1. Prior number two, is inorganic growth. We are, I would call, an active acquirer across our businesses. In the past 3 years, we've acquired we've completed roughly 25 acquisitions. That's a lot. We know how to do these things. They vary from our book of business to an ample hire to a slightly larger practice to the clear points in the Santanders of the world.

So that will always be in our 2 kits, and I expect that, that will remain to be active. So we've been able to do all of that, all those things with organic growth, acquisitions, and buy back shares and continue to grow our capital base along the way. So we're -- we can expect more of the same going forward.

And as it relates to the latter part of your question on bank M&A, I'd say it's a little bit quiet right now. There is not a ton of great opportunities to really spend time on. We have a very targeted box of things that make sense for us. And that really does not include the majority of things that are out there I appreciate the commentary. I'll step back into the queue.

Operator

The next question comes from Matthew Breese with Stephens Inc.

Matthew Breese

Maybe just give us an update -- looking for an update on kind of the broader strategic initiatives tied to taking market share in some of the denser upstate New York markets in Pennsylvania. Where are you doing well versus lagging and curious around any I'll leave it there. Yes. Here is where you're doing well versus leg.

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. Fortunately, I feel like we're doing really well across the board. And if you just step back and think about some of our most recent kind of entries and I would count broader New England is 1 of those Southern New Hampshire and kind of Norte, Massachusetts type market, where I think we mentioned in the past that we we've been much more engaged. Certainly, we started de novo in Bedford. We added some folks to the team last year from some of the M&A disruption -- and that part of the geography for us is down really, really well this year already. So that's been really encouraging. And the feedback from client visits there just continues to emphasize to me that there is a really good opportunity set for us and our ability to compete in that part of our footprint. [indiscernible], we've been in for a while clearly, with the acquisition of the Santander branches, we were able to take it up a notch in terms of our ability to recruit and kind of establish leadership in the area.

And we just did that in the third quarter. We found the leader we've been looking for in the [indiscernible], and we're off to a pretty good start there and kind of adding to the existing commercial team. So really kind of looking forward to what that's going to bring to us in the next few quarters as well, really well received by customers down there, and our reputation is growing by the day. And that is really not to take away from what's happening in our kind of more established markets in upstate. We've had a pretty good outcome year-to-date in Buffalo. We're going to be -- we're doing okay in Rochester. We're doing quite well in Syracuse. We're doing fine in opening -- so I'm just encouraged. Certainly, in Vermont, we've reengaged as well and kind of continue to have a leading market share there.

So I'm just encouraged by the execution across the footprint. And I'm also encouraged by the ability for us to have a very large funnel of things that we're working on and seeing. So what that allows us to do is if we need to allocate capital more actively and say, the pricing and this part of our footprint is not as favorable this quarter. We're going to basically deploy more capital in another part of the footprint that's really a powerful tool for us right now.

Matthew Breese

Great. Marya, just on the security sale, I guess 1 thing I was a little bit surprised by it was just that it looks like investment yields are actually down a little bit quarter-over-quarter. Maybe help me better understand that? I would have thought given the sales, some of the lower-yielding stuff that goes higher. And if it's a timing difference, maybe help me out with where you expect things to shake out over the next couple of quarters.

Marya Wlos

Sure. Yes. I think it probably is a little bit of a timing difference based on the date that the sale was executed. In general, this is, as we've mentioned, has been a very accretive transaction for us. We're really happy that in expanded 7 basis points last quarter, 3 of those basis points are attributed to the securities sale. And then obviously, loan yields and deposit costs, we also just to put a fine point on this, do not receive an FRB or FHLB dividend. -- in Q3, and we will in Q4. So as we look forward, we expect that to smooth out and Dimitra already went into some greater detail on what's going to happen in 2027 with the $600 million -- that's obviously going to have also a positive benefit on AOCI.

So really for us, I believe, to your specific question, it was more of a timing situation as it was August 3 and the way -- when we calculate the portfolio and look at things going forward. Given the positive state of the portfolio, the rate environment, and again, the 2 dividends that we will see, we will continue for Q4 to see an expansion of 1 to 3 basis points of NIM. And then, as we mentioned in the script, for guidance, exit 2026 mid- to high 3.5% for the company itself.

Matthew Breese

Okay. And then Dimitar, 1 big picture question for you. Increasingly, we've been fielding questions around risks to deposit bases like yours tied to agenicAI, products like muse that was that came out and just the ability to move dollars around much more efficiently. Just curious how you'd respond to that if you think a franchise like yours is more or less at risk and perhaps why? I'll leave it there.

Dimitar Karaivanov

Sure. Thanks, Matt. Great question. And it's kind of like the Yogi Berra thing that predictions about predictions are very difficult, especially about the future. But the way I would really think about it as it relates to our company is ultimately Muse, which is a terrific technology -- and it's actually been available for a little bit in different ways. This is just much more consumer-friendly, I would call it that way. It -- what it does is it removes friction in the process. And that's part of the equation.

The other part of the equation is why do people bank where they bank -- and no matter what survey you kind of look at, convenience is an important piece, which also has to do with friction, but also with having something tangible around you. So branches actually show quite high on most consumer surveys for reasons where people bank. Then thrust is a very large piece of it as well. because our financial well-being is right up there in the top behind health and family for everybody, right? So trust is extremely important as it relates to finances. And the challenge with just purely agenetic solutions is that there is no responsibility attached to that trust.

What I mean by that is you may trust matter, let's say, in an extreme example. However, if new that something that you didn't ask it to do -- and the power of us is really being able to practically the things that you did on you're going to ask it to do. But if it does something that you didn't ask you to do, or if it makes a mistake, you have no recourse against anything. So in other words, there's no 1 to complain to. There's no -- can fix anything for you. You're going to get a beautiful response that says you're right to push back, I messed up, and that's about it. So there is no accountability, and I think that's going to be a challenge for trust.

Now as it relates to our company, in particular, I think the question is going to be how much of the reason that people bank with us or any other institution, how much buy are they placing on those attributes of convenience and trust and accountability and responsibility versus the friction that's embedded in doing business with us versus mills. I can tell you our folks, our business is a friction, right? Like nobody wants a mortgage. They want a home. So the days it takes us to give them a mortgage is a friction in the way. When we -- the commercial borrower that we're good for they're expecting their money tomorrow. They're not expecting their money in 60 days. So we need to continue to work on the equation of providing that value versus the friction and removing as much friction as we can so that we can earn our place.

And then the operating side of the balances is the key to all of this because if you think about where you leave your money the money that we compete for is the operating accounts. It is not the investment part. That game has been going on for a long time on the investment side. If you look at the fastest-growing deposits -- the fastest post growers in the country in the past year, they were not any banks. They were the Morgan Stanleys of the world, they were the Goldmans of the world. It is those investment dollars. -- that game has been going on. I don't know that Miss Is going to change that dramatically for us because we don't have a lot of those monies. But the operating accounts is where we deliver the value and the convenience and the trust -- and if you look at the size of our average account at $12,000, those are truly operating. Those are not investment dollars. So how much is it worth to a customer to optimize a couple of hundred bucks of that versus the convenience and the trust that comes with everything else that we provide.

Operator

The next question comes from [ Eric Bedell ] with Bloomberg Intelligence.

Unknown Analyst

I was just wondering if you could -- I was just wondering if you could give us an update on how much of the commercial loan pipeline is related to the micron plants. And there was -- I also saw there's news this morning about a second chip factory being potentially built in Central New York as well.

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. Eric, as it relates to directly attributable pipeline to Micron, I would say it's a very small percentage. What we are seeing, however, is the increase in business from the kind of the second and third derivative supplier is really more and more like the third derivative suppliers or folks that are doing work around the sites. -- as it relates to warehousing as it relates to even just getting the roles done. So we have a number of those customers, and they're not necessarily just in the bank a number of them that are actively engaged are insurance and benefits customers whose business is growing as a result of that.

But this is all in preparation. We are starting to see more discussions from Tier 2 and Tier 1 suppliers looking at operations here locally. If you're a Tier 1 supplier, you probably already have a very well-established relationship with a banking institution and you're not necessarily likely to bank locally for that, but they need to hire kind of the Tier 3s and the Tier 4s locally to construction companies as we're seeing some of that, architectural engineering firms. We're seeing some of that -- but in terms of percent, is it driving our business at this point in time not yet. With that said, I think there's going to be 4,000 workers here on site pretty soon. And that has its cascading impact, right? They need to go to lunch. They need housing. They need medical care, they need insurance. They need all of it. So that's where we're going to start seeing it as people really come on site.

Unknown Analyst

And I'm just kind of curious on expenses from here. Should we expect a larger than kind of the mid-single-digit range into next year? Or how is the best way to think about your approach on more de novo expansion? And anything just along those potlines would be great.

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. I mean, generally, our approach on expenses is lower, just lower is our goal. If you take out acquisitions, as Maria mentioned, we're right around 5% this year, which was our goal on our scorecard I think going forward, again, excluding acquisitions, I would like to be even a little bit more than that in terms of expense growth. again, a lot of what we're doing is investments in the future. It's been not just branches in real estate, but technology and just the infrastructure for us to scale truly operate in a much bigger scale than currently we are. But kind of that 4% to 5% on -- excluding acquisitions kind of on an organic basis, is a range that is probably going to be on our scorecard for 2027.

Operator

Next question comes from Daniel Cardenas with Brean Capital.

Daniel Cardenas

So just a quick follow-up question to Eric's question. So it sounds like on the lending side, the semiconductor business really hasn't been providing much loan growth as of at the expectations that it's going to pick up. How do you think this is -- the pickup in that business is going to impact your deposit growth on a go-forward basis?

Dimitar Karaivanov

Yes. Great question, Daniel. And we expect that it's going to be on both sides. And if you -- if you look at the Syracuse market and if you just pull up the results from the 2026 FDIC survey you're going to see that the market has grown a little bit, but our market share has grown meaningfully. In the past, I think 3 years, we have gone from kind of a 7% market share to over 9% market share -- so I expect that not only the market is going to grow faster than it has been, but that we're going to continue to have opportunities to deepen our market share because of the level of activity that we have and just the way how we do business. So it will be helpful. Again, very hard to speculate. We've looked at historical precedents and Saratoga County and in other places around the country. And in some places, the impact is hard to see.

In [ Serotecount ], certainly, it was deposits grew meaningfully faster than the rest of our states for kind of the period between 2010 and 2020, where most of that activity happened and since then have kind of been at the same pace as the rest of upstate. So hard to tell. It should be a positive tailwind. I still think we're going to get most of our growth from market share gains that we're going to have versus the overall market.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Dimitar Karaivanov for any closing remarks.

Dimitar Karaivanov

Thank you, everybody, for joining us, and we look forward to speaking with you again in January.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.