EUR: September CPI to keep ECB expectations anchored – ING

FXStreetOct 1, 2025 8:36 AM

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A speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde was read as mildly dovish yesterday, in that the ECB being in a 'good place' did not prevent it from adjusting interest rates, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Market has not completely ruled out one further ECB cut

"Recent German activity data have come in on the soft side and the market has not completely ruled out one further ECB cut. With that in mind, we doubt the market will want to drive EUR/USD too much higher on what should be a rise in September eurozone inflation to 2.2% year-on-year today, while core is expected to remain at 2.3%."

"However, we think the US government shutdown and the softer dollar story should dominate today and could be enough to drag EUR/USD to 1.1800/1820."

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