USD/CNH: Brief break below 7 triggers AXJs – OCBC

Optimism from China’s recent support measures and renewed USD softness have manifested onto gains in the CNH, OCBC’s FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD softness manifests as gains in the CNH

“USD/CNH briefly traded a low of 6.9950 before rebounding. The big decline in USDCNH past key psychological level saw various USD/AXJs trade lower. For instance, USD/SGD traded close to 1.28-lows while USD/MYR went below 4.11 briefly (vs. close of 4.1578 yesterday). A combination of further gains in RMB, growth in the region looking well, Fed easing cycle and softer USD should continue to benefit AXJ FX.”

“On the daily fix, USD/CNY was set at 7.0202, largely in line with Bloomberg consensus for 7.0206. Markets were earlier watching if policymakers will explicitly push back against RMB appreciation (by signaling via the fix) and it appeared there was no strong push back. The momentum forward for RMB should take cues from China equity markets.”

“More sustained gains should see RMB trade with a tighter correlation. USD/CNH was last at 7.0130 levels. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near oversold conditions. Intra-day retracement not ruled out. Resistance at 7.0330 (50% fibo), 7.07 levels. Bias to sell rallies. Support at 6.99, 6.9540 (61.8% fibo).”