SG Morning Brief | Dow Nears 52K for 4th Straight Record as Chips Drag Nasdaq; Warsh FOMC Tonight

US Overnight

The Dow gained 0.64% (+329 points) to close just shy of 52,000, its fourth consecutive record, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.08% to 7,548.60 and the Nasdaq fell 1.15% to 26,376.34, ending its three-day winning streak. The divergence between the Dow and Nasdaq widened further as the rotation out of semiconductors and AI infrastructure into value and cyclicals continued. The Bank of Japan hiked rates overnight, adding to the cautious tone ahead of Warsh's first FOMC decision tonight. SpaceX announced a $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, the maker of the Cursor AI coding agent, just days after its IPO debut.

Key Movers

SpaceX (SPCX) +5% — SpaceX rose nearly 5% on its third trading day, pushing its market cap past Amazon's. The stock has gained roughly 50% from its $135 IPO price in three sessions. The company also announced a $60 billion deal to acquire Anysphere, maker of the Cursor AI coding tool, in what would be one of the largest AI acquisitions ever. Nasdaq-100 and Russell forced index buying of $22-27 billion remains ahead.

Intel (INTC) -8% / AMD -7% / Micron -6% — The chip rotation intensified. Intel fell over 8%, AMD dropped over 7%, and Micron declined over 6%, while Nvidia shed over 2%. The semiconductor index has now swung violently in both directions for two straight weeks as investors struggle to find a sustainable level after the sector's 80% YTD rally. The Iran peace deal is pulling money into oil-sensitive cyclicals and away from AI infrastructure.

Lumentum (LITE) -8% — Lumentum fell over 8%, highlighting that the AI infrastructure selloff extends beyond chips into optical networking and components. The stock had surged on Nasdaq-100 inclusion news just weeks ago, and the reversal reflects profit-taking across the entire AI supply chain.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070 recently. DBS is near S$62.18 and UOB near S$37.91. The Dow's record close is positive for Singapore financials, but the chip selloff may weigh on Venture Corp. The BOJ rate hike could strengthen the yen and affect regional capital flows. Tonight's Warsh FOMC is the dominant catalyst — Singapore investors will see the result Thursday morning.

Asia Pre-Market

Futures data was not yet available. The Nasdaq's 1.15% decline signals continued caution in tech ahead of the FOMC. The BOJ hike adds a second central bank catalyst to what is already the most consequential Fed meeting of 2026. Oil remains near $81, supporting the case that the Iran-driven inflation shock is fading. The market enters the FOMC in a holding pattern.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Friday June 19: US markets closed (Juneteenth). Iran deal signing in Switzerland.

Event Spotlight: Warsh's First FOMC — The macro backdrop has shifted dramatically in one week. When the meeting cycle began, CPI was 4.2%, NFP 172,000, and rate hike odds 75%. Then the Iran deal broke: oil crashed from $95 to $81, Treasury yields eased, and the disinflationary impulse restarted. Warsh now has cover to hold rates and frame the inflation surge as war-driven rather than structural. The market expects a hold, but every word in the statement and press conference will be dissected for hints on whether hikes remain on the table at the July meeting. A dovish hold — emphasizing that falling oil should bring CPI back toward target — would be the most bullish outcome. A hawkish hold — keeping the door open to hikes despite the deal — would disappoint and likely extend the tech selloff.

One More Thing

SpaceX acquiring Cursor's parent company for $60 billion, three days after its IPO, is either visionary or reckless. Musk is betting that AI-powered coding will be as transformative as reusable rockets. Cursor has attracted a massive developer audience by using AI to automate coding. But $60 billion for a startup is a bet on the future, not the present. For the broader market, the deal signals that the AI M&A cycle is accelerating — and that newly public companies with $2 trillion market caps are willing to make mega-acquisitions immediately. Tonight's FOMC will determine whether the market has room to digest all of this — Iran peace, SpaceX at $2 trillion, a $60 billion AI deal, and a new Fed Chair — or whether something has to give.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.