Chip Stocks Are at Record Highs. Why That Feels a "Wee Bit" Much

Chip stocks as a whole hit a new high Thursday, as measured by the PHLX Semiconductors Index, which closed up 2.1% to 8,633.44. That’s the index’s second record high in a row, with Thursday marking its seventh straight trading day of gains.

But Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein wrote that semiconductors are feeling a “wee bit overbought,” in a note published Thursday morning. “My sense is machines and quants drove much of yesterday’s rally with a risk-on rotation vs real active managers rushing to buy” just one day after the Iran cease-fire was announced, he added.

The rise is notable because the index’s largest component, Nvidia, is down 2% for the year over worries about everything from the Iran war and tariffs to excessive spending on data centers by some of the artificial-intelligence chip maker’s biggest customers, such as Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft.

However, Nvidia stock is up over the last seven trading days. Its biggest gains came Wednesday after the U.S. called off the large-scale attack President Donald Trump had threatened on Iran’s bridges and energy infrastructure.

Along with the actual semiconductor index, the electronically-traded fund that tracks it, iShares Semiconductor, was also on track to close at a record high. By late morning, it was trading at $374.14, up 1%.

Other big chip firms in the 30-company index, which is loosely weighted by market value, include Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML Holding, Micron, and AMD. Among those, Micron has seen the biggest gains—of 43%—in 2026, driven in part by strong demand for memory chips.

Mizuho’s Klein went on to warn that the rally “feels bound to end in tears.” The two-week truce is by all accounts fragile, and there is little evidence that the critical Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil typically passes, has reopened. On Wednesday, just five ships passed through the strait, according to S&P Market Intelligence, and only one of those vessels was an oil tanker.