Portland General Electric Cuts 2026 Earnings Outlook After Mild Q3 Weather

Portland General Electric lowered its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance after mild third-quarter weather weighed on customer demand, even as industrial growth, regulatory recovery and cost controls supported year-over-year earnings gains.

The electric utility now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $3.18 to $3.28 per diluted share, down from its previous range of $3.33 to $3.53. PGE also revised its 2026 weather-adjusted load-growth outlook to 1.0% to 2.0% from 1.5% to 2.5%.

The company maintained its longer-term targets, including 3% load growth through 2030 and annual earnings-per-share and dividend growth of 5% to 7%. Its long-term EPS target is measured from the midpoint of its 2024 adjusted EPS guidance of $3.08.

Mild weather offsets industrial growth

PGE reported third-quarter GAAP net income of $119 million, or $1.00 per diluted share, compared with $103 million, or $0.94 per share, a year earlier. Excluding business transformation and optimization expenses, adjusted net income was $125 million, or $1.06 per share, up from $110 million, or $1.00 per share, in the third quarter of 2025.

Adjusted EPS was $0.20 below the company’s guidance midpoint, primarily reflecting unfavorable weather. PGE described the period as its mildest third quarter since 2016. Weather reduced year-over-year EPS by $0.15, shifting from a $0.02 benefit in the prior-year quarter to a $0.13 detriment in the latest period.

Industrial demand and pricing under the UM 2377 regulatory proceeding contributed positively to results, with data centers driving the industrial-load benefit. Regulatory recovery related to Seaside and the distribution system plan helped offset higher depreciation, amortization and financing costs. PGE also cited continued operating and maintenance cost discipline and favorable net variable power costs, while weaker residential and commercial load was the largest earnings headwind.

For the fourth quarter, PGE expects adjusted EPS of $0.90 to $1.00. Its plan assumes a reversal of the adverse weather effect recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, along with operating and maintenance cost controls, net variable power cost optimization and execution of its capital plan. The company expects a 2026 accounting return on equity of 8.8% to 9.1%, compared with 7.7% in 2025.

Data-center pipeline supports longer-term load target

PGE’s contracted large-load pipeline reaches 1,403 megawatts by 2030, including operating facilities and projects under construction. The pipeline includes 473 MW tied to contracts executed in 2025 and 2026 that are under construction for five data-center customers.

A further 420 MW covered by contracts executed in 2026 but not yet under construction is expected to begin energization in 2028 and ramp to full capacity by 2033. PGE also reported 1.3 gigawatts of additional large-load requests seeking energization from 2028 onward.

Oregon’s approved New Large Load Tariff provides contractual protections including capacity deposits, collateral, minimum-demand requirements and exit fees. PGE said the tariff provides greater regulatory certainty for large customers while supporting affordability for residential and small-business customers.

Capital plan and financing

PGE forecast $7.4 billion of capital expenditures through 2030 as of September 30. That total excludes approximately $1.75 billion for the Biglow Optimization Phase 2 and Salmonfly projects, which were executed in October 2026. The company cautioned that actual spending will depend on factors including siting, permitting, tariffs and supply-chain conditions.

As of September 30, PGE had total liquidity of $1.003 billion, comprising $750 million of credit facilities, $69 million of cash and $184 million of letters of credit. Its senior unsecured ratings were BBB+ with a stable outlook from S&P and A3 with a stable outlook from Moody’s.

The utility entered into a $550 million equity forward-sale agreement to address 2026 and 2027 financing requirements. It had drawn $160 million and planned to draw $400 million in 2027. PGE also established a $500 million at-the-market equity facility and entered into a 24-month, $350 million credit agreement. It expects to monetize $350 million to $400 million of tax credits in 2027.

PGE’s financing estimates exclude potential effects from its proposed corporate-structure changes and planned acquisition of PacifiCorp’s Washington electric utility operations and certain assets. Initial regulatory filings for the transaction have been completed across the relevant states and with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, with closing targeted for mid-2027.

The company identified weather, wildfire exposure, energy-market volatility, regulatory outcomes, financing conditions and execution of its capital program as significant uncertainties. The Washington acquisition also remains subject to approvals, financing, implementation and integration risks, while large-customer growth could require substantial infrastructure and may develop unevenly.