Altria Raises 2026 EPS Outlook as Q3 Profit Grows

Altria Group (NYSE: MO) raised its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook after reporting higher third-quarter profit, supported by stronger smokeable-products earnings and continued growth for its on! nicotine pouches despite declining cigarette and total oral-tobacco volumes.

The company now expects full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share of $5.66 to $5.74, representing growth of 4.5% to 6.0% from $5.42 in 2025. Third-quarter adjusted diluted EPS increased 4.8% to $1.52, while adjusted diluted EPS for the first nine months rose 5.1% to $4.33.

Smokeable-products earnings rise as discount demand grows

Adjusted operating companies income in Altria’s smokeable-products segment increased 3.9% to $3.07 billion in the third quarter. The segment’s adjusted operating margin edged up 0.1 percentage point to 64.5%.

Altria estimated that its adjusted cigarette volume declined 4% in the quarter, compared with a 5% contraction for the industry. For the first nine months, the company’s adjusted decline rate was also 4%, versus an estimated 5% industry decrease.

Marlboro’s share of the premium cigarette segment rose 0.3 percentage point to 60.0%, helped by the Cowboy Cut product, while its overall retail share fell one percentage point to 39.5%. The broader PM USA portfolio gained 0.3 percentage point of retail share to 45.7%, reflecting growth from Basic, whose share increased to 3.2% from 1.4%.

The gains for Basic came as economic pressures continued to shift demand toward lower-priced cigarettes. The combined branded-discount and deep-discount segments accounted for 34.1% of the market in the third quarter, up from 32.1% a year earlier.

Middleton cigar shipment volume increased 0.9% to 457 million sticks.

on! grows, but total oral-tobacco results weaken

Reported shipment volume for on! nicotine pouches rose 13.3% to 47.8 million cans. The brand maintained an 8.3% share of the oral-tobacco category, compared with 8.2% a year earlier, even as its average retail price increased 21.6% to $4.90.

Altria said nicotine pouches represented 61.2% of the oral-tobacco category, up 5.8 percentage points year over year. The company expanded distribution of the 12-milligram on! PLUS product nationwide and plans to introduce additional flavor extensions, including products at select retail locations in the fourth quarter.

Growth in pouches did not offset weakness elsewhere in the oral portfolio. Total segment volume declined 4.3% to 170.6 million cans in the quarter and fell 5.4% to 522.2 million cans over the first nine months. Combined retail share for Altria’s moist smokeless tobacco products and on! decreased 2.7 percentage points to 27.9%.

Adjusted operating companies income for the oral-tobacco segment fell 3.7% to $443 million, while its adjusted operating margin contracted 2.8 percentage points to 66.4%.

Cash returns and regulatory priorities

Altria returned $6.07 billion to shareholders during the first nine months, including approximately $5.33 billion in dividends and $735 million through the repurchase of more than 11 million shares. The company increased its quarterly dividend by 4.7% to $1.11 per share, and its board expanded the existing share-repurchase authorization by $1 billion. Altria reported a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.9 times as of Sept. 30.

Regulation remains a key uncertainty for the company’s smoke-free portfolio. Helix and NJOY have filed legal action seeking to require the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to establish a premarket tobacco application review process consistent with the 180-day timeframe set by Congress. Altria said the FDA subsequently announced plans to evaluate changes to the framework.

The presentation also highlighted continued pressure from declining cigarette and oral-tobacco volumes, consumers’ shift toward discount cigarettes and illicit e-vapor products. Altria cautioned that its guidance is based on current expectations and remains subject to business and regulatory risks.