Cheniere Raises 2026 Guidance as Q3 LNG Exports Reach Record

Cheniere Energy raised its full-year 2026 financial guidance after higher LNG exports and stronger margins lifted third-quarter revenue and adjusted earnings. The LNG producer also completed Corpus Christi Stage 3 ahead of schedule, while continuing to advance expansion projects that could increase its platform to about 100 million tonnes per annum of production capacity.

Revenue for the third quarter rose 39% to $6.17 billion from $4.44 billion a year earlier. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure, increased 18% to $1.90 billion, while GAAP net income attributable to Cheniere climbed to $1.17 billion from $1.05 billion. Adjusted net income rose to $750 million from $591 million.

Distributable cash flow declined to approximately $1.23 billion from about $1.61 billion in the prior-year quarter, despite the gains in revenue and earnings. For the first nine months of 2026, however, distributable cash flow increased to roughly $4.07 billion from $3.80 billion, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA rose to $6.04 billion from $4.90 billion.

Higher exports support guidance increase

Cheniere exported a record 188 LNG cargoes during the quarter, up from 163 a year earlier. Exported volumes reached 684 trillion British thermal units, compared with 586 TBtu in the third quarter of 2025. The company also produced and exported its 5,000th cargo during the period.

Cheniere now expects full-year Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion, up from its previous range of $7.90 billion to $8.40 billion. The midpoint is $2 billion above the company’s initial February guidance. Full-year distributable cash flow is projected at $6.05 billion to $6.55 billion, compared with the prior forecast of $5.30 billion to $5.80 billion.

The company also narrowed and raised the lower end of its expected Cheniere Energy Partners distribution to $3.30 to $3.40 per unit from $3.10 to $3.40.

Management attributed the revised outlook to improved margin capture and expectations for the remainder of 2026, optimization gains already secured, higher lifting margins associated with higher Henry Hub prices, the early substantial completion of Corpus Christi Stage 3 Train 7, and the expected timing of several year-end Cheniere Marketing cargoes.

For 2027, Cheniere forecasts LNG production of approximately 56 million to 58 million tonnes across Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, more than 3 million tonnes higher than the expected year-earlier level. About 52 million tonnes are expected to be sold under long-term contracts, while approximately 4 million tonnes of spot volumes have been sold forward. Roughly 1 million tonnes remain exposed to market pricing. Cheniere estimates that a $1 change in market margin would affect full-year Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA by about $50 million.

Expansion projects advance

Corpus Christi Stage 3 reached substantial completion ahead of schedule and within budget. Midscale Trains 8 and 9 were approximately 59% complete as of September 30, with substantial completion expected in the second half of 2028. Cheniere said procurement and construction were ahead of schedule, with all cold boxes delivered to the site.

At Sabine Pass, the first phase of a proposed expansion would add more than 6 million tonnes per annum of expected peak production capacity through Train 7 and boil-off gas reliquefaction. Cheniere signed an approximately $4.7 billion lump-sum turnkey engineering, procurement and construction contract and obtained commitments for a $3.25 billion delayed-draw senior secured term loan intended to finance about half of the phase’s expected cost. The company expects a federal permit in late 2026, which could support a final investment decision in late 2026 or early 2027.

The proposed first phase of the Corpus Christi expansion would add more than 5 million tonnes per annum through Train 4. Cheniere expects regulatory approvals in 2027, potentially enabling a final investment decision in late 2027 or early 2028. Future development remains subject to permitting, commercial and financing requirements.

Cheniere said it has more than 10 million tonnes per annum of long-term contracting capacity available to support future growth. Recent commercial activity included agreements covering up to 4 million tonnes per annum from the early 2030s through 2054, as well as a separate 0.8-million-tonne-per-year agreement for 22 years.

Capital returns and balance sheet

The company deployed approximately $1.5 billion of equity cash flow during the quarter. It returned about $846 million to shareholders, including roughly $731 million used to repurchase 2.8 million shares, and invested around $740 million in growth capital expenditures. Cheniere also repaid approximately $54 million of principal on senior secured notes due in 2037.

Cheniere increased its annualized dividend by more than 12% to $2.50 per share from $2.22. As of September 30, the company reported approximately $24.1 billion of consolidated debt and about $8.1 billion of consolidated available liquidity.

The outlook remains exposed to commodity margins, including the approximately 1 million tonnes of expected 2027 production not yet sold, as well as project execution, regulatory approvals, financing availability and counterparty performance. Cheniere also highlighted continuing disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and low European gas storage as sources of uncertainty in global supply and pricing.