Ford Raises 2026 Profit Floor as Q3 Adjusted EBIT Rises Despite Lower Revenue

Ford Motor Co. raised the lower end of its full-year adjusted EBIT guidance after third-quarter operating earnings increased despite lower revenue, supported by Ford Credit and improved results at its electric-vehicle business. The automaker now expects 2026 adjusted EBIT of $10.5 billion to $11.0 billion, compared with its previous range of $10.0 billion to $11.0 billion.

Ford attributed the revision primarily to operational execution and continued strength in Ford Credit, software services and parts. The company maintained its forecasts for adjusted free cash flow of $6.0 billion to $7.0 billion and capital spending of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion.

Earnings Rise as Revenue and Vehicle Volumes Decline

Third-quarter adjusted EBIT increased 3% from a year earlier to $2.66 billion, while the adjusted EBIT margin widened 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%. Revenue declined 2% to $49.5 billion, and wholesale volume fell to 1.05 million vehicles from 1.16 million.

Adjusted earnings per share rose to $0.49 from $0.45, and adjusted free cash flow increased by $358 million to $4.67 billion. On a GAAP basis, net income attributable to Ford fell to $2.05 billion from $2.45 billion, while diluted EPS declined to $0.50 from $0.60.

Ford said favorable product mix, higher Model e net pricing, lower regulatory compliance expenses and stronger software-services results supported adjusted EBIT. Those benefits were partly offset by higher commodity costs, investments in the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy, launch costs for Super Duty production in Oakville, and expenses associated with temporary alternative aluminum sourcing.

For the first nine months of 2026, adjusted EBIT climbed 51% to $8.65 billion, and the adjusted margin rose 2.1 percentage points to 6.1%. Revenue was nearly unchanged at $141.1 billion. Year-to-date adjusted free cash flow declined to $4.89 billion from $5.66 billion, while adjusted EPS increased to $1.57 from $0.96.

Model e Loss Narrows, While Ford Pro Earnings Fall

Ford Blue generated third-quarter EBIT of $1.39 billion, down $148 million, as revenue fell to $27.1 billion from $28.0 billion. Wholesale volume declined by 76,000 units to 657,000, reflecting product discontinuations and the impact of the Middle East conflict within the region. Lower volume and higher commodity costs outweighed favorable product mix and exchange movements.

Ford Model e reported an EBIT loss of $1.06 billion, an improvement of $352 million from the prior-year loss. Revenue declined to $1.2 billion from $1.8 billion, while wholesale volume fell to 34,000 vehicles from 50,000. Ford linked the lower volume and revenue to the discontinuation of the F-150 Lightning and the adjustment of Mustang Mach-E production to customer demand. Reduced losses on first-generation EV products were partly offset by higher investment in next-generation products and Ford Energy.

Ford Pro remained the company’s largest automotive earnings contributor, although its EBIT declined by $320 million to $1.67 billion. Revenue rose to $17.8 billion from $17.4 billion as favorable product mix offset lower volume. Results were pressured by commodity costs, the Oakville Super Duty launch and temporary costs associated with the Novelis fires. Ford said higher truck production began to recover some production losses related to those fires.

Ford Credit’s earnings before taxes increased by $172 million to $803 million, helped by favorable derivative-market valuation and higher receivables and mix. The financing unit’s U.S. retail loss-to-receivables ratio increased because of higher loss severity, while auction values declined 3% as used-vehicle supply increased.

Ford ended September with $25.3 billion in company cash and $46.4 billion in liquidity, down from $28.7 billion and $49.8 billion, respectively, at the end of 2025. Cash net of debt excluding finance leases stood at $2.9 billion.

Updated 2026 Outlook

Ford now expects Ford Blue to produce about $5.5 billion of full-year EBIT, compared with its previous range of $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion. Model e is still expected to record a loss of about $4.0 billion. Ford Pro is projected to generate roughly $7.0 billion, versus the earlier range of $7.0 billion to $7.5 billion, while Ford Credit is expected to deliver about $2.8 billion of EBT, compared with the prior outlook of more than $2.5 billion.

The company’s updated assumptions include a U.S. seasonally adjusted annual selling rate of 16.5 million vehicles and full-year U.S. industry pricing growth of about 1%. Ford now expects commodity headwinds approaching $2.5 billion, compared with its previous assumption of slightly more than $2 billion. It also said it remains on track for $1 billion of material and warranty cost reductions for the year, excluding tariffs and Novelis-related effects.

The guidance is based on management’s estimates as of October 28, 2026, and assumes no material change in inflation, logistics, production or macroeconomic conditions. It excludes the potential effects of a significant escalation in the Middle East or a material downturn in the U.S. economy, both of which could substantially affect industry demand. It also excludes unannounced U.S. policy changes, future or revised tariffs and policy actions by other governments after that date.

Other risks identified by Ford include supplier disruptions, product defects and warranty costs, commodity and currency volatility, competitive pricing pressure, cybersecurity incidents, changes in regulation and consumer demand, and the possibility of higher credit losses or lower residual values at Ford Credit.