Today’s Market Recap: U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Boosts Global Assets, Three Major U.S. Stock Indexes Jump, Crude Oil Records Largest Single-Day Drop in 6 Years.

The Strait of Hormuz closes again; Iran reportedly set to collect "transit fees" and limit passage. The Strait of Hormuz has closed once again following Israeli strikes on Lebanon. According to Iranian media reports, Iran suspended shipping through the strait in response to Israel's strikes on Hezbollah, forcing oil tankers to turn back. Iran is reportedly planning to reinstate "transit fees," charging $1 per barrel of oil with payments required in Bitcoin (BTC), while limiting the number of vessels allowed through to 12 per day. The White House stated that Trump opposes this move and has explicitly set the non-collection of strait transit fees as a precondition for a ceasefire.

US-Iran meeting schedule and divergent positions. The White House announced that the first round of US-Iran talks is scheduled for April 11 in Pakistan. Iran, however, stated it will only negotiate with the US after a ceasefire is achieved in Lebanon. The White House revealed that the US negotiating team is led by Vice President Vance and includes Middle East Envoy Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The basis for negotiations accepted by the US is not the "10-point plan" previously proposed by Iran (which the US initially rejected), but a completely different, streamlined version modified by Iran. The US's core position remains that "Iran must not conduct uranium enrichment on its own soil."

Trump proposes joint management of the strait and threatens tariffs. Trump proposed that the United States could "jointly manage" the Strait of Hormuz with Iran. According to CCTV News, Trump stated that the US might seek to establish a "joint project" with Iran to ensure the security of the strait. Meanwhile, Trump threatened that any country providing military weapons to Iran would face an "immediate 50% tariff" on "any and all goods" sold to the US, with the measure "taking effect immediately" and "no exclusions or exemptions."

Nick Timiraos says Fed rate cut prospects look bleak. Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed Whisperer," stated that the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts appears bleak regardless of whether a ceasefire is reached. He noted that a US-Iran ceasefire might simply replace one problem with another: an energy shock lasting just long enough to push up inflation but not long enough to severely destroy demand could ultimately result in interest rates staying higher for longer. If the risk of a recession caused by the Iran conflict is the strongest argument for the Fed to resume rate cuts, then a ceasefire itself could, in the short term, make it harder for the Fed to ease policy. At the same time, a ceasefire also reduces the likelihood of further rate hikes.

Meta releases its first AI model, Muse Spark. Meta has released its first major AI model, Muse Spark, considered the first fruit of its $15 billion gamble. This is the first model launched since Meta established its "Superintelligence Lab" and the first work since recruiting Scale AI founder Alexandr Wang to lead the team last year. Deviating from Meta’s previous open-source path, Muse Spark is closed-source, focusing on miniaturization and high-speed computation, and will be directly embedded into social media platforms like Facebook as an AI shopping assistant. Meta acknowledged that its overall performance still lags behind leading competitors like ChatGPT and positioned the model as a "starting point model." Boosted by the news, Meta shares jumped as much as 9.5%.

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