USD: Weaker as conflict risk eases – MUFG

FXStreetMar 24, 2026 9:53 AM

View all comments（0）



MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman notes the US Dollar remains under pressure after a sharp sell-off linked to de-escalation in the Middle East. The Dollar index again failed to clear 100.00 and retreated toward 98.88. Hardman highlights ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and warns that unresolved Strait of Hormuz disruptions could keep FX volatility, especially in EM currencies, elevated.

Dollar index capped as risk premium fades

"The US dollar has continued to trade at weaker levels overnight after yesterday’s sharp sell-off triggered by the de-escalation of the Middle East conflict. The dollar index once again failed to break above resistance at the 100.00-level and dropped back to a low yesterday at 98.880."

"President Trump’s decision to step back from striking energy infrastructure in Iran for at least five days to allow for negotiations with Iran, has helped to reduce the immediate risk of further damage to energy sites in the Middle East. Iran had threatened to retaliate by launching further attacks on energy sites in the Middle East."

"For financial markets what matters most is whether energy supply is able to normalize through the Strait of Hormuz. It currently remains effectively closed which if not resolved in the coming weeks and months could deliver an even bigger negative energy price shock for the global economy."

"While the conflict and energy supply disruption continues, foreign exchange markets are likely to remain volatile. The pick-up in volatility has been greater for emerging market currencies than for G10."

"JPMorgan’s measure of one-month EM FX volatility has risen to the highest levels since last April following President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements while G10 FX volatility is still well below levels from last April."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

S&P 500 Index Forecast: Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet and Other Companies Continue Increasing AI Investment, May Support Index Surpassing 8,000 in Second Half of 2026

TradingKey - The S&P 500 index has recently experienced volatility at high levels. As of the U.S. market close on July 16, the S&P 500 index stood at 7,533.77 points, falling 0.51% on the day. Despite the short-term pullback, technical indicators suggest the medium-to-long-term bullish trend remains intact, and institutions continue to hold a positive outlook for the future of the S&P 500.

Apple Hits Record High, Market Cap Surges to $4.9 Trillion: Why Full-Year Gains Lead the Mag 7?

TradingKey - Against the backdrop of a general pullback in the AI sector, Apple (AAPL) has staged an independent rally, driven by its unique ecosystem moat and robust financial performance. After reaching an all-time high of $323.45 on July 13, the share price hit another record high of $327.5 on July 15. Its market capitalization currently stands at $4.81 trillion, making it the second-largest company in the U.S. by market value as it approaches the epic $5 trillion milestone, trailing only Nvidia (NVDA) at $5.13 trillion. In fact, Apple's year-to-date gain in 2026 has reached 16%, also leading the "Mag 7."

SpaceX Negotiates Multi-Billion Dollar Computing Power Deal With Pentagon: Stock Price Drop Does Not Change Wall Street’s Bullish Expectations

Tradingkey - The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX (SPCX) is in negotiations with the U.S. Department of Defense to sell computing power. The deal could be valued at billions of dollars, and if finalized, would mark the latest major infrastructure contract for Elon Musk’s integrated rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence conglomerate. The report noted that the partnership model for this deal is similar to previous agreements SpaceX reached with Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) and AI firm Anthropic. The negotiations come as the U.S. military seeks to construct data centers within its military bases to bolster its autonomous computing capabilities.

Meta Plans to Lease Computing Power to Anthropic: Shares Surge Back to $650, Cloud Computing Commercialization Layout Sees Substantial Progress

TradingKey - Meta Platforms (META) has made substantial progress in the commercialization of its cloud computing infrastructure. According to media reports, Meta is in early-stage talks with leading AI company Anthropic to lease computing resources from its proprietary data centers, a two-year partnership that could be worth up to $10 billion. If finalized, the deal would represent a landmark transaction, marking Meta's transition from using its computing assets solely for internal operations to external commercialization. Driven by the news, Meta's stock price recovered significantly, narrowing from an early-session decline of over 5% to less than 2%. As of press time, shares were down 2.06% at $650.82.

US-Iran Conflict Escalates, International Oil Prices Surge Over 3%: WTI Crude Breaks $81, Strait of Hormuz Shipping Blocked

Tradingkey - On July 17 (ET), as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate, the two major crude oil futures rose again, returning to price levels seen in mid-June. As of press time, WTI crude futures rose over 3% to $81.05, while Brent crude futures also gained more than 3% to $87.01. The confrontation between the two sides has intensified as the fragile ceasefire agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran last month shows further signs of breaking down.

Featured Tools