USD: Lots of US labour market data this week – ING

FXStreetSep 2, 2024 10:10 AM

View all comments（0）



Having sold off around 5% since the start of July, the US D (USD) rebounded last week. Clearly, the USD bear trend needs to be fed and there was little on offer last week. It is a different story this week. After today's US Labor Day public holiday, the US data calendar picks up with ISM manufacturing data (Tuesday), JOLTS job opening data Wednesday, ADP, jobless claims, and ISM services (Thursday), and then the main event of the week, the August jobs report on Friday, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

DXY to trade quietly amid the US holidays

If the consensus is right about Friday's jobs report (165,000 job gains and a drop in the unemployment rate back to 4.2%) then market pricing will firm up just a 25bp cut as the start to the Fed easing cycle on 18 September. Payrolls could come in at just 125k, but the unemployment rate could tick up to 4.4%. If so, the USD will be back to test recent lows as the pendulum swings back to a 50bp Fed rate cut in September.

We'll also see this week whether US opinion polls start to register in FX markets. Arguably, the dollar sell-off since July has been assisted by the improved polling performance of the Democrats. As we now enter the run-up to November, opinion polls will become ever more important and certainly, this will be a hot topic next week after the first Harris-Trump TV debate which takes place on 10 September.

Expect the Labor Day holiday to keep FX trading subdued today and we doubt DXY has the legs to get over the 101.85/102.00 region.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

Cathie Wood Bearish on 'Clarity Act'? Ark Invest Dumps Over $60 Million in Crypto Stocks Ahead of Vote

Ahead of the vote on the Clarity Act, Cathie Wood heavily offloaded crypto stocks, cashing out over $60 million.

Cryptos Rebound Strongly as 'Clarity Act' Vote Imminent, XRP Surges Over 5%

As procedural voting on the CLARITY Act gets underway, cryptocurrencies generally rebounded and strengthened, with XRP surging over 5%.

Today’s Market Recap: AI Chip Stocks Plunge as Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom Tumble; Gold Drops below $4,300

TradingKey - On September 14, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices closed lower across the board. AI industry executives collectively called for a slowdown in the development of advanced models, prompting the market to reassess the outlook for AI capital expenditures and chip demand. Mea

US Stocks Drop as Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Falls Nearly 6%; Memory Stocks Lead Losses With Micron Down 5%; Cybersecurity, Cloud Providers Buck Trend

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for a slowdown in the pace of artificial intelligence capability development, sending AI-related stocks lower across the board. Meanwhile, surging US Treasury yields and crude oil prices also weighed on the market. US equities edged lower, with memory and optical communications stocks leading the declines, while software and cybersecurity stocks bucked the trend to gain. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.29% to 52,421.20; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.56% to 26,186.41; and the S&P 500 Index fell 0.48% to 7,619.98.

Oracle Stock Price Forecast: Reported New Round of Layoffs, Ellison Cancels Share Sale Plan, Will the Stock Stabilize at $142?

On September 14, Eastern Time, Oracle's (ORCL) stock price slipped further to around $141, hitting a near two-week low. Reports indicate that Oracle has initiated a new round of layoffs, with job cuts in certain teams potentially reaching double digits. The layoffs had been brewing internally, aimed primarily at reducing payroll costs to support the company's expanding investments in AI infrastructure. Prior to this round of layoffs, the company's total headcount was approximately 141,000.

Featured Tools