USD: First look at August consumer confidence – ING

The US Dollar (USD) received a lift from the better-than-expected retail sales data yesterday. The data has prompted investors to shift towards pricing a 25bp Federal Reserve rate cut on 18 September, ING’s FX strategist Chris Turner notes.

DXY set to drop to 102.15/25 next week

“There will be a myriad of data inputs into the Fed equation and the events calendar picks up next week. For today, however, the focus will be on August University of Michigan consumer confidence data. This survey will have been taken during the stock market rout at the start of August and could see consumer expectations sink further. This could be a little bearish for the dollar.”

“Elsewhere, firmer US rates have allowed USD/JPY to climb back towards 150 and have encouraged flows back into the high yielders like the Mexican peso and the South African rand. We still have our concerns over the peso given potential constitutional reforms next month and doubt investors will chase USD/MXN much under 18.50.”

“DXY is consolidating, but we have a bias for a drop to 102.15/25 next week.”